 Hello everyone, welcome to Looking to the East, our twice monthly show, which takes a look at world events, world activities, from the Japan perspective, the Asia perspective. And today, fortunately, we're also looking at the topic from a European perspective, as we have Dr. Paul Scott, with us on this show from Paris, France. So this is a repeat of a show that we did six or seven months ago, looking at the Biden presidency. And specifically at that time, we were looking at the nomination of Rahm Emanuel as ambassador. So we all decided after that show that we would get together again after six or seven months of the presidency and begin to take a look at how Biden is doing from our collective perspectives. So we have four very distinguished professors and professionals with us. Very briefly, Jerry Miseki is coming from Osaka, and he's a partner, a Kitahama partners, Kansai Gaidae graduates. So that is a link for all of us on the show today. We have S.Y. Kim, who's a professor of international relations, and he specializes on Japan-U.S. diplomacy. So he's joining us also from the Kansai Gaidae area from Osaka. And we have Johnson Portu, also a professor of political science, living in the Osaka area as well. And last, as I mentioned before, we have Professor Emeritus of Kansai Gaidae, an icon within the Kansai Gaidae system itself, Professor Paul Scott. He's joining us from Paris, France. So let's go ahead and jump right into it. I guess the first thing we can take a look at is a Biden from a domestic perspective, at least as you guys are looking out into the country. He seems to have focused quite a bit of his attention, his energy, on reforming and recovering from the COVID recession slash depression that we've experienced in the last few years or so. I admittedly am more of a progressive, so I have email news sources that I read there, and they're delighted with what he has done. I think they're collectively surprised at how progressive Biden has been with his legislation and his approach. So why don't I just throw it out to you guys, if you have any comments on whether or not from your perspective the domestic agenda that Biden has put forth in the last six to seven months is something that you've seen is a positive for him, a positive for the country, and then I guess maybe a positive for the world, for wherever you're sitting. Jerry, why don't I start with you? I'll call on you, like I do in my class. Sure, no problem. Yeah, thank you very much Steve, pleasure to be with you. I think that, you know, domestically probably his biggest success so far has been with infrastructure. You know, I think that that is something that he has pushed and that will for him long term assuming they can get it through Congress is going to be the most probably lost longest lasting impact of perhaps his presidency, we'll see. I mean, I think that is something that for those living in the United States, everyone sees and understands really on both sides of the political spectrum that infrastructure rebuilding reform is necessary. So, you know, I think that has been a very big success. I, you know, what is good and what I also think that has been positive for him is that he's maintained his, his moderate base, right, which is sort of the middle between the far left and the far right in the United States. And as you mentioned, as is winning over progressives, right. As far right, I don't know that he, you know, the Trumpists and people like that. I don't know that he's ever going to be able to, to connect with with with them, but the fact that he's, you know, got the middle, and is also, you know, over progressives I think is is a very positive sign. You know, we'll see. He has had some some issues, particularly with Afghanistan that I guess we'll we'll discuss later that is right international matter, but but does affect him domestically as well I think at least as far as public perception goes. Any other comments from any of you. I think I will also admit one level of bias that I have, and that is that I am radically moderate over from all the chaos. It's actually quite difficult to isolate success. This is by Biden without some noise from the previous presidency. So even if you're trying to isolate, you know, economic growth oftentimes is just wait until the second year of a second term to be able to see what is the actual the actual effect. So it's difficult to say how successful he's been isolating his his effect, but just the the tone down chaos, I think has had a has had a tremendously influential effect and not just domestically but also about how other the US the US right now. Yeah, I think that's a very good point, John. So I feel that personally to under the blast administration almost daily. There was some kind of issue or topic that would come up that was just just so difficult to understand. I began to tune it all out into the third and fourth year but still there's a sense of calm right now because we have a more stable leader than we have previously. How do things look from Paris. Well, in an old East Coast liberal would think that there might be some problems with Mr Biden's credibility and his management skills. The polls are down drastically. I don't know if he had the worst August in presidential history but it certainly wasn't any good and it's not, not getting any better as well. Here in Europe. There's the opposite of what you are saying. Actually, where this this deal with Australia and the French ambassador was recalled from Washington I think it might be the first time that has ever happened. And people here are saying that the Americans are not a reliable partner and that Biden is as bad as Trump. That is maybe just the French being anti Anglo Saxon I read the French press right before this, and they were rallying against the English and the Americans. But it was the deal of the century 66 billion dollars and again we're going into international international relations but there certainly is in Europe, a credibility issue with the Biden administration, because he didn't communicate. He left the French out of the dark in the dark with this. So, that communication issue. I think is is a is a latent problem with the Biden administration. Let's go ahead. That's why please. Yeah, if we had a bit historical example, in terms of the requirements to deal with both foreign challenge like rise of China and withdraw from Afghanistan. There was domestic problems that I call it and infrastructure be his presence reminds me of earlier president like Franklin, the Roosevelt or Harry Truman, both of whom had to circle with those foreign policy requirement like World War two and Cold War, and that domestic need to invest and revive. And as Paul rightly pointed out for that, it needs greater leadership skill and communication skill to assure allies and the domestic audiences, that's going to seem to be not sufficiently enough. Although he has been doing pretty positive work in my point of view, as non American point of view in Asia. Yeah, Steve also if I could just say one of the things that we should also talk about domestically what maybe one of the biggest things he's done at least in the past a month or so where the COVID mandates which is basically he's he's said that if from the federal government that if you have over 100 employees. You know you can basically mandate COVID vaccine so I mean that that that's that that's actually a big deal as well and we'll hopefully get the US economy and businesses back on. Yeah, that I agree with you Jerry that is a major point. I know Paul I know France has been doing that for quite a while issuing mandates on this. So, but the United States it's such a politicized issue because primarily because of the previous administration. Well everything is you know public health has become politicized unfortunately, but everything right become politicized and you know America is still extremely politicized. Here in France are anti vaccine mandate marches every week. But France's vaccination rate is close to 65%. For those above 12 for those above 12 years old, the vaccination rate must be in the about 85%. Wow. So, you don't have to be vaccinated, but then you need a COVID test, which you have to pay for yourself. And you can't get in a restaurant and you can't get in a public space without without the past and every place I've gone to it's on my it's on my iPhone it's on my cell phone. They asked for it, because the fine for restaurants is 9,000 euro. Yes, or 45 days in jail. So that's really help. No that is the power of the states to say, yeah, get vaccinated and Francis COVID numbers are are drastically down. And by the way, I'm teaching in the classroom as of last week. Wow. Yeah, we're not here in kind of say guy day we're still online at this point. So I guess it in summary, it seems we have a fairly even though it's early as Johnson points out, we have a fairly positive review of Biden but with one specific weakness and that's his lack of communication. I think, you know, if you watched him over the election process as well, he's not a smooth speaker. He's not all that convincing. I mean, I think he's believable. This is when you watch him, you think, you know, he's a decent guy, but I would never put him. I hate to say this guys, but, you know, I wouldn't put him in the same persuasive category as our former president because Trump is as crazy as he was. He did have a certain way of communicating that was effective for large parts of the society. So I don't know if he can change that or if what you're critiquing is him himself in terms of his communication facility or his willingness to speak up. Remember during the election, there were times when he disappeared and the Republicans were saying he was in the basement. Remember, that was one of the critiques. So that may be a liability of this particular individual that may be with us through the course of the term. Yeah, for the domestic, you know, there's going to be an awful lot of, you know, he has to pass these bills. And, you know, it's going to be, it's going to be by deficit spending. So there's a deficit issue, which may be the bond markets care about more than the average citizen. And we don't want to, as a registered Democrat, we don't want to get into this tax and spend Democrats criticism, but it's an awful lot of money. So I think there's going to be a lot of political wheeling and dealing this week. Oh, sorry. I didn't mean to cut you off. No, no, you didn't. One thing, I think this approach, especially in terms of the economic, or the COVID spending basically that that makes sense from a change in kind of counter cyclical spending. So in times of bust, you pump money in in times of plenty, you take money out. So even I've been getting COVID relief for my three kids, even though I'm not in the United States, and that actually makes sense, because people in my demographic are spending more money than they actually have. Right. So that's going to have, hopefully eventually it's going to have a positive effect on the overall health of the economy. So just from a kind of strict Keynesian approach, it seems like it makes sense. Of course, there are some people on the other side, supply side that might might think differently. So I think the answer to all these questions is, it's pretty complex. Okay, let's move to international and when I thought about that as I mentioned in the agenda that I sent out to you all I think the biggest topic there is the withdrawal from Afghanistan. So I think everybody even on the conservative side of the spectrum recognize that 20 years was long enough. So Biden I think was given credit for finally pulling the trigger, so to speak on withdrawing from that country, but the withdrawal itself was rough to say the least. But what's your perspective on that is, do you think that in the long term the fact that he's withdrawn from us from Afghanistan will be to his larger credit or the fact that it was done in such a chaotic way will be a part of his legacy as well. Oh, I know you have a very strong opinion about it. Well, I have a very strong opinion. I worked in Afghanistan twice and I do believe that that, you know, I don't like sort of nervous when people are saying that we shouldn't do nation building or state building and I'm thinking well it's a, what do, you know, how do we do it correctly. You know, don't we help try to help countries become more, more democratic and next, you know, that's that's a very long, very long conversation. Yeah, I was, I was certainly, you know, everyone was disappointed but what I was going to say is it's the messaging again. This is not going to be like Saigon. The, this is Biden speaking, you know, the Afghan National Army, you know, we train them and, and they can fight and you know they have an Air Force and I'm sort of, if I had more hair to pull out of my head when Biden was saying this, I would pull it out because the Afghan had Afghans had almost no Air Force. They were planes have to be serviced that was done by contractors, and it's extremely difficult to do air to ground operations. It was, I don't know, did he believe this. And then of course we have, we have the almost the helicopter on the roof of the American Embassy so that's a credibility issue that, you know, from Mr. Biden is, you know, he could have just said, this is going to be rough. And, but the messaging was terrible. And even, even if he had said it was going to be rough, it shouldn't have been as rough as it actually was. I mean, the, I mean, those images, I mean, he made Saigon look like a departure from Saigon look like a ballet. I think that that what probably should have been done and I think a lot of people as you said Steve, on the conservative as well as the liberal side said look, it's 20 years time to get out fine. But it was how it's done or how it was done that I think is probably the biggest issue for people. And I personally think that this, and again, not that it was done but how it was done and images that came out of that are going to have a very long lasting negative impact on the United States around the world going forward. I mean, you saw it right after, you know, end of empire, all of these, these sorts of things. So, look, Afghanistan was not Biden's failure. And I think anyone who sort of followed the course of that Afghan war would realize that that Biden is one in a long line of presidents who did not handle Afghanistan properly. But unfortunately, his name will be associated with the botched withdrawal. That's why what what do you think how do you how would you put this in context. Yeah, in terms of big picture by the administration had a few other alternative and then Trump administration made a more, you know, greater commitment for earlier withdrawal. All issues about prioritizing, although the present own belief influence this quick decision to prioritize wise America's faced with real need to geostrategic rebalancing to deal with the rise of China. And then also domestic issues are urgent as well. It reminds me of earlier historic cases like during 1970s or early Cold War, when America really tried to ship the gear by prioritizing vital areas, while sometimes abandoning peripheral areas as George cannot has stated. Right. So it was somewhat inevitable. But the method and there was to implement this withdrawal, there should be have been more pragmatic approach and realistic assessment. As Paul pointed out, the capability of Afghan army, but when America also withdraw, it's rough. If you're in the receiving side, I remember that as I'm historian of international history politics, and not to mention Vietnam but when America, America tried to withdraw out of Korea completely in 1970s. To that made South Korea to develop nuclear weapon then America slowly down. Right. And the other earlier cases. So we should take all these things into balance and the strategic restraint is inevitable required. In that sense, big picture wise is correct. There should have been more pragmatic approach to reduce the damage on American prestige and Chris credibility. And countries like China, which is not rising, it has risen. How do they react to this? Do they believe their own propaganda that America is unreliable, untrustworthy and and a declining power. You know, people have done that before. It's extremely dangerous to underestimate that. I would add on this point that this kind of naked application of in terms of grand strategy geopolitics, let Afghan be taking care of other powers or let internal new kind of order emerge after America left. Let's wait. They're really bloodshed. And also America cannot take care of every country around the world, as we demonstrate in the case of non intervention to Syria. It may be a lot of short term complaint and critique, but in the longer term new order emerge and it can become China's opportunity or nightmare. Russia or China would come. America would stay away. In a sense, China has been benefiting the kind of stability in Afghanistan during the last 20 years while America will take care of that. This is kind of naked rather frank balance of power game. So that's what America's strategy is chose even during Clinton and Trump era. That's why I said it's going to grand stretch wise. There are a few other alternative. America could drain its resources there. Johnson, would you like to make a comment about this issue? Yeah, I think that Biden inherited, President Biden inherited a really, really bad situation. And if we're talking about what Dr Scott had mentioned about state making and state building. I remember George W. Bush having said, basically, look, we did this in Japan. Therefore, we can do this in Iraq and Afghanistan, which, which probably if he had taken my class, he would know that's not something. Because basically what was the difference there? Well, in the case of Japan, you had Meiji, you had Taisho, and you had you had a population which demanded democracy were in the case of Afghanistan. You didn't see that after 20 years. So go ahead. Sorry. And Japan happened to surrender. Oh, yeah. So we're, we're fortunately running up against time here. This is so interesting to talk to you all. But I want to address actually what S. Y. With CNN and Paul as well. The domestic issues we've discussed and then the Afghanistan withdrawal certainly took up a great deal of Biden's focus and his energies and his administration. But is that at the expense of Asia? My sense is that we have an ambassador now who's been nominated for Japan finally and we're not going to have time unfortunately to talk about that. But in the larger scheme of things is, is Asia being overlooked? Is, is Biden focusing properly on the economic hub of the world and addressing the risen China issue? Is he missing an opportunity here or missing an obligation? Frankly, that's kind of the way I look at it. I don't think any U. S. President should not be thinking about Asia every day. But I'm biased. What do you guys think? I don't know that there's a lot of evidence he's ignoring Asia. I mean, I think that in recent months and certainly since the beginning of his term, he's had of a lot of other things to to worry about either domestically or or other places. Of course, Afghanistan is in Asia. That's an Asian problem as well. So I guess if we're talking about East Asia, if we're talking about Japan, if we're talking about China, I don't think that he's necessarily ignoring Asia. I don't see a lot of evidence of that. I think he has been rather dealing with the East Asian security issues fairly well. The biggest challenge has been China's more assertive labor operation and behaving in South China Sea, which threatened not just the United States, but all Asian neighbors, too, America's allies in East Asia. And to do that, Biden has been marching up alliance support cooperation with Japan fairly well, bringing Japan to make commitment to the defense of Taiwan as well in the spring when Mr. Suga, Prime Minister Suga visited Washington DC. And South Korea, with South Korea as well, the alliance cooperation has been pretty well coordinated in dealing with the challenge posed by ever assertive North Korea. And Taiwan is well embraced and Australia is fully kind of embraced by American-led alliance. Although France as Paul must have noticed has been very alienated, deeply resentful. Overall, Asia diplomacy and strategy-wise, Biden administration deserves some credit, in my view, compared with his predecessor. Greater credibility and predictability. That's a low bar, S.Y., that you just stated there. Well, it's the defense of Taiwan and freedom of navigation in the seas in the South China Sea. Those are core issues. And I think that a submarine deal with Australia, you know, 16 nuclear submarines, not ballistic missile submarines, but they're not going to change the balance. But it certainly shows that the Biden administration and his head of China policy, who wrote a book on the blue water naval capability of China. This is all driven by Chinese expansion at the maritime levels. And I think people are looking at that threat very, very real in Washington and around Asia. Very, very real threat of China militarily. All right. Well, it looks like you guys are giving him a passing grade. On his Asia activity administration, maybe my worries were ill-conceived. Johnson, do you have any last comment? We only have about a minute or so left. So last comment goes to you, Johnson. I think in terms of the probability of war in Asia under Biden, it's actually gone down. And part of that is, I think, more transparent diplomacy, although not perfect, obviously. And also increasing economic ties. I think those two things are going to make already a very low probability of war actually even less. So I think that is a positive trajectory. I agree. Okay. You all agree with that? All right, guys. Well, I guess it's nice to end on a positive note there. And I'm pleased that you've disagreed with my question here that you actually see the Biden administration doing a competent job in Asia. Hopefully that will continue through the course of his administration. All right. Well, that went by very quickly. Again, thank you so much for all four of you for participating. Those of you that enjoy this program, ThinkTech is constantly looking for economic support. So please contact the ThinkTech website. And you can contribute and mention this show. And that will reflect positively on this particular episode and my series overall. I'll be back on air in a couple of weeks. I'm hoping to interview a former Consul General of the United States to Japan. That's my plan at the moment. Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it. Thanks, Paul, for staying up late in Paris. I know it's late. You look very awake, so very bright. I appreciate it. And thank you, guys, for waking up early in Japan. That's it. Thank you, everyone. Bye-bye.