 If you're a trader that's blinded by the lights and you fall in love with the stock instead of falling in love with reality, if Tesla loses the 50-day moving average, it could give us an incredible, premium trade. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisandTrader.com. We can update show, hope everybody is doing well, hope everybody's having a beautiful, beautiful trading week. Hopefully everybody's living their best life. Hopefully everybody is just happy at the end of the game. That's all that matters. We'll get to everything in a second. First and foremost, guys, I want to thank all you guys for all your continuous years of support. As you guys know, this is going on our 14th, maybe even 15th year, of hosting the Access a Trader platform. So thank you very much for all your support throughout the years. And if you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for subscribing. Or if you haven't done so, please subscribe, share alike, so you can continue this journey with us on the indefinite journey of no trophies, no pats in the backs, just constant learning and constant reminder that once we figure out, we've got it just a little bit. We understand a little bit what's going on. The market really shows us who the boss is and humbles us. Hopefully, guys, welcome aboard, and hopefully you guys continue to get value. And I could continue to add value towards your day. So let's talk about it, right? Yesterday, if you watched the video on Thursday, we had Apple and Amazon coming out earnings. Apple missed their quarter, I think it's a third straight time they missed their quarter, light iPhone sales that definitely didn't help out. Amazon was the other side of the spectrum, had an incredible quarter, really, really great quarter attributed to the massive cloud business, which is known as the Amazon Web Services, AWS. And that's kind of ironic because that's what the cloud business, that's what Microsoft that reported earnings earlier last week kind of blamed for their uneventful quarter. So we had kind of a pull and pull, pull and pause or tug and pull throughout throughout the day. And the question going to today's session was, well, was Amazon strong enough to pull the market up? Or was Apple going to be a Debbie Downer and pull everything down? And in the meantime, we had the biggest point of all from the technical point of view. Again, that's the only thing we care about is the technical point of view is we had two days in a row of the keys closing below the 20 day moving average, entering today's channel. So it was very, very important because if you get if you're watching this broadcast, you kind of know the market has held the 20 day moving average real lettlessly. I mean, we've been talking about every single time it's come up to the 20 day moving average, we see how aggressive bulls defended it. But you know, this time was different, right? We had a we had a very, very aggressive reversal on Wednesday and inside day on Thursday and lettuce for today. And everything was going well, right? Everything was going well. The market was surging. Everything was going strong. Amazon was up like, you know, 15 points, like everything was ripping. And then something we noticed we started talking about this in the webinar, if you go on, if you go on my regular feed, I tweeted out the Danchef 55 feet, I tweeted out around 124 124 130. In that area, if you look at the cues, you can see it here on the one minute chart on the five minute chart, somewhere around here, right? Somewhere around here, they started dumping. I'm talking about if you look at the five minute intervals, they started dumping a ridiculous amounts of cues, just two 300,000 shared clips at a time. And it looked like somebody really wanted out. But at this point, the NASDAQ was still at the height of the day was like up 250, you know, we were just coming in for, you know, kind of a back test into support. And they started really coming down with very, very aggressive just swarms of selling swarms of selling. It felt like somebody wanted out. It felt like somebody knew that there was a piece of news that was about to drop whatever the case may be. But it was so obvious, they just wanted out. And then you know, obviously, you see what happened towards the end of the day. The speculation was, you know, maybe there's another downgrade from another agency, whether it's Moody, Standard and Poor's, whatever the case may be. Because if you guys remember, you know, the week started out, right? The week started out with a Fitch downgrade. We got downgraded, the United States got downgraded in throughout the, you know, that obviously ruffled a lot of feathers that obviously took down a very aggressive bull flag that was being built throughout the whole week. So when we had this big downgrade Fitch, prices, you know, felt it. And the most important part was that was the first day that we closed below the 20 day moving average, right? That was a big deal. We haven't seen that for a very long time. Yesterday was an inside day, they couldn't get a back above the 20 day moving average. And today, you know, we were there for a majority of the day, we were above that 375, 376, 377 level literally the whole day. And so like I said, around 125, 130, somebody just wanted out they started dumping futures that translated into the NASDAQ 100. And we just sold off super aggressively, really, really big move. And you when you look at the scoreboard, this is the fourth week in a row that the NASDAQ, the Teflon NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have not their fourth straight week in a row of losses. Now the question is, well, is the bull markets over? Let's not, you know, let's I mean, I'm starting I start seeing these things on social media. That's it. This is the top. The market's going to go to zero. Relax. Nobody knows nobody's about the guests. Nobody's about to predict anything. But the one thing we do know is the collection of data. And that's the most important part, guys. We are now starting to build a home, right? We're starting to build a home like all this was demand rising demand. And now this demand is acting as supply. So we're now day three, below the 20 day moving average. And the longer that we build a base below the 20 day moving average, eventually we're going to run out of a catalyst, right? And that's the most important part to understand the longer something builds above the level, the higher the probability that either the stock, the ETF or whatever the case may be the index and this and this juncture will follow through in that level. So like I said on Thursday's video, the bulls have to write they have to hold and close over the 20 day moving average. And we fail to do that we don't we don't know or maybe we find out over the weekend why there was such a massive dump from 130 into the close. But the point is here, the scoreboard is the scoreboard and now we're three days nestled in below the 20 day moving average. And all you need to do folks again, and I always encourage traders to do so back test when I'm talking about right back test what happens when a when a market or an ETF and this and this juncture is building a base below a major moving average right now again, it's not as strong as the 50 day. It's not as strong as the 200 day but this is a very important intermediate moving average as you can see here that they held for months and months and months. And now we're three days below it. So we're running out of catalyst guys remember earning seasons at least for the majority of the big heavy hitters is starting to come into the eighth ninth inning. Yes, you have the video still coming up. But is the video going to going to save the NASDAQ is going to save the market right you know we had an opportunity today and we were again 85% of the day above the 20 day and eventually at the end of the day they failed and the closing price is Fair Valley you can say well the market you know the market is going to rebound on Monday well that's fantastic you can say that but the data is saying completely other and the most important part we have to watch for going into Monday session is well what's going to happen with the individual stocks that are sitting at the bottom of the range so I'll give you a perfect example right here's Tesla I know you know people are charged when I talk about Tesla to the upside we had this massive massive push to the upside everything was great Tesla to the moon diamond hands whatever the hell social media talks about that's great but now Tesla and we've been talking about this now this isn't the first time we're talking about Tesla right now it's building a base it's building a very very heavy base and you can see it also below the 20 day moving average and now it's nestled between the 50 rising support which is a massive massive support and below the 20 something has to give here you see what I'm saying guys you see this this this blue line this is the 50 day moving average okay if you see what happens you want when a stock loses the 50 day moving average or reclaims the 50 day moving average well I'm going to show you in a second right so here is the first time go back to this is the most recent right the most recent time right so Tesla on April the 5th lost the 50 day moving average you see that right here guys so what happened for the next couple of weeks it started a really really aggressive cycle of selling and we went from the 50 day moving average roughly from 184 all the way down to 152 you see that right this is the first close well the 50 and we just completely fell apart now look what happens the first time a stock gets above the 50 day moving average right so right here on a you'll see May the 18th right May the 18th Tesla closed above the 50 day moving average and look what happened it started a massive cycle of buying so something that's very very basic even if you are brand new to trading or brand new to technical analysis it's a very easy formula okay anything that's above the 50 day moving average is being bullish anything below the 50 day moving average will start a selling cycle and again it's not just an opinion that's what it is go back test this weekend if you want to improve your trading and you want to talk about back testing improving your technical skills or are trying to accumulate or predict price action it starts with the 50 day moving average see what happens take anywhere in stock see what happens when we're below the 50 day moving average and see what happens when we're above the 50 day moving average and that's kind of where I'm why I want to start here with Tesla Tesla right now is sitting there and and granted it put in three days in a row of higher lows off the 50 day moving average but you could see every single time for the last three days it's touched it so for Tesla to get bullish and we talked about this now for the last week if Tesla gets bullish it has to reclaim this whole channel here right this whole 273 but I'm telling you I'm telling you I'm telling you I'm sorry if you're a shareholder if you're an investor if you're a trader that you know that's blinded by the lights and you're you full level at the stock instead of falling level of reality if Tesla loses the 50 day moving average it could give us an incredible premium trade now again is that going to happen we don't know you know we could only prepare we're not going to guess we're not going to anticipate but boy oh boy we've touched it now three days in a row we've touched this lipo line which is a 50 day if this thing does have a close below the 50 day moving average you could see where the potential is if you guys remember on Thursday they were coming for the 255 and the 250 puts for next week so we'll see we'll see how the price action pays off but the point that is again we're trying to accumulate as much data as possible and if it does lose the 50 day moving average we will be absolutely ready when you look at the majority of other names right and we'll start off with the spies as well right same thing with the spies the spies are day three below the 20 day moving average they gapped up today got reject off the five which is a short term sentiment and they closed below again look how much room you have again we're running out of time here for s and p 500 companies to report earnings that already they've not that that matter for the catalyst for for for the short term foreseeable future and the longer term they build a base below the 50 day moving average it's going to be a problem and when you look at the names right you look at names that blew up on earnings or at least had a negative earnings quarter that includes Tesla right that definitely includes Tesla but if you look at the other names that had you know pretty big moves down on earnings you could see how where they're looking to go next so for example right at C yesterday had bad earnings today followed through today for example do cn right do cn miserable quarter right absolutely miserable quarter watch this thing for Monday right if the market continues to pull and this thing loses the 150 day moving average look at the volume bar here this is a massive volume for the stock if this thing lose starts losing the bottom the range it can get hit look at square right square had a nasty quarter absolutely nasty nasty quarter the stock got murdered today absolutely murdered today if this thing starts losing this whole bottom channel this is again the first day below the 50 day moving average it could extend its losses look at a name like now right not a not a beta name right not a mega cap technology name but this is starting to to play out really really well if you're watching the bottom the range look at the bottom the ratio look how close this thing is from snapping again i'm i don't i don't follow bitcoin i do recognize that mara and riot and coin based they track the bitcoin underlining right i get that but look at matt you know look at mara's channel this thing starts to losing the bottom channel here this thing can get as hit as well look at a name like roblox right look at roblox roblox has been underneath the 50 day moving average right and that's my point you see that guys you see out first time it closed below the 50 day moving average on july the 21st right look what's look what's happening after right look what's happening after one two three four five six seven eight nine ten days two weeks below the 50 day moving average and it's making lower lows lower highs on the weekly and if this thing starts confirming this bottom channel here this thing has more room so that 50 days going to play a huge huge card on tesla and if you run your scans or whatever how else you look for stocks this weekend take a look at the names that are closing at or above or even below the 50 day moving average those are the names you're going to want to you know you're going to really really want to watch going into monday's session because at the market can't sustain a rally we can't reclaim back to 20 day moving average and it will be day four right eventually these stocks are going to run out of buyers and buyers are going to just get really really frustrated and all those channels are going to snap and there's going to be a very very aggressive catalyst for and you can you can you can you can see what happened here with roadblocks even the first time it lost the 50 day moving average right yet two weeks of straight selling so my focus obviously for the week is going to be tesla it's always tesla right i mean it's my favorite stock i traded long i traded short but we're getting into a very very important area folks and if you are a trader in tesla not an investor you know maybe the stock goes to 500 one day i don't know but we're talking about monday right we're not talking about what's going to happen three years from now or two weeks from now or your opinion we're talking about monday and if we can just get below this child here i think some we could get a really good measured potential so going into this week guys again the stage is set day three below the 20 for the cues day three below the 20 for the spies uh if you look at at the russell the i w m right it's still above the 20 see out still holding on to the 20 but if the i w m starts losing this 193 level it's going to get below the 20 as well and if you look at the dow jones right if you look at the dow jones industrial average right we are still hovering around the 20 day moving average let's look at the diamonds a little clearer you see how the you see how the diamonds are just sitting on the 20 day moving average so all these indexes all these major benchmarks they're either now below right two of them are below the 20 two of them are on the 20 and if they confirm lower prices the market should pull we'll see we'll see guys again we're always prepared on both sides of the market we're not guessing we're not trying to forecast we're not trying to be smart we're just being prepared and making sure everybody's prepared uh and looking at the market with eyes wide open instead of eyes wide shut guys god bless everybody have an amazing weekend hope everybody is having love uh security happiness and health in your life and with god's help i'll see you all on the field on monday take care