 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now, toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tom and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Headquarters in St. Petersburg, Florida. 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday coming into that long weekend and quite a start we have to the market. Tom's going to be joining us after the first break. Right now, we get the dial of 277 points, trading at 26,314 S&Ps, currently positive by 32, trading at 2,919 Nasdaq, positive by 111 points. That's a solid 1.4%. Trading at 79, 67. We got the Russell up 20 points. That's a solid 1.4% as well. Trading at 14,93. And as I usually like to on the updates, we're going to start things off with how about that VIX. Now, under 18,1793, as this market charges higher and the news of the morning, the news of the session, China responding with a little bit of quote-unquote calm attitude. So the quote is, we firmly reject an escalation of the trade war and are willing to negotiate and collaborate in order to solve this problem with calm attitude. Smokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce says Thursday. That news coming out at about 3 a.m. Eastern time. You can see the spike across the board on the markets. We have the Dow trading just under 26,000 right prior to that news. Within the span of about 10 minutes, you got a 250-point bop in the Dow. NASDAQ much the same. S&Ps before that news trading at 28,79. You trade all the way up to 2,909 right within 10 minutes. And we're still 10 points now above that level in the S&P as well. We got a lot going on this morning. We got some earnings. You got Abercrombie and Fitch trading lower. You have Best Buy trading lower. We have Dollar General up about 10%. Burlington Coat Factory up 16 plus percent to talk about some of what we have going on this market. Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks from Thinkorswim TD Ameritrade right after the show. Every trading day, folks, 11 a.m. Eastern time. Fast market. You want to talk about defined risk. You want to talk about action in the market. Kevin Hinks, Alex Coffey, breaking down the whole trading day. Every trading day. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Good to talk to you. How's everything? Everything's going good, man. Another day in a late August trading day market and calmness in the markets, Kevin. Where do we start? You know, Tommy, you just mentioned really what is the major cattle today. And that was about 3 a.m. Eastern time, 2 a.m. Chicago time. China came out and said two things. They wouldn't immediately retaliate against the latest tariffs. And they needed, are looking for some de-escalation in the trade war. So very soft, friendly comments from China. And that, if you look at the one minute chart of the S&P 500 futures, skyrocketed right after that, that lifted this whole market. And the thing we're telling our clients today is, careful here, because going into a holiday weekend, this market has some room to run, frankly. Oh, totally, man. I mean, it's a far crack, Kevin, from where we were last Friday, right? Really fear setting into the markets. Maybe an escalation of things to come. And things have really calmed down. And you see the spokesman over in China, really trying to add some calmness to that market on their front. And the market likened that, of course, in a big way. I mean, we're up 40 S&P points, folks, from where we were trading at, at about 3 a.m. eastern time. Yeah, the other thing I think the market liked, Tommy, and that really sent bonds a little bit lower after they tried to rally was when the GDP number came out, 7.30 Chicago time, consumer spending, what drives as much as three quarters of the U.S. economy. They were looking for 4.3 percent, and that GDP report, 4.7 percent consumer spending. So when in doubt, Tommy, just lean on the U.S. consumer is carrying everybody. Oh, they have, man. That's been the way it is. And I'd say that's probably going to be the way it is in terms that you haven't seen that type of corporate investment, right? We got the tax cuts, Kevin, a lot of that. They were hoping maybe some more investment hasn't quite come in, but consumers, they just continue to march on in this economy. And talking about consumers, how about retail this morning, Kevin? We have a few headlines, man. I know you guys were breaking down some of the earnings expectations coming down the line, whether it's Dollar General right now. It was up almost 10 percent where we're sitting right now. Yeah, up about 9.2 percent trading at 154. You got Best Buy pulling back a bit, and then even Burlington up almost 18 percent. And guess, up 21 percent. Just big numbers. Dollar General and Best Buy, we actually covered on yesterday's show. So we took a good, hard look at that. And some of the data that we talked to like fully all about, as you saw on the show, they were very positive on Dollar General. So that matched our data that we looked at. So yeah, that's one of those times where their data was right on. And that's how we traded Dollar General. So we're going to look at that again today. There's more. It gets a little light on retail. We've got a couple of names. We got Workday, Campbell Soup coming out tomorrow morning. And then we've got Ulta, the beauty cosmetics. That's a giant. Retailer. Yeah, so they're a giant. So we'll cover that today too. Three big names we're going to be covering today. Man, I know. And this Bond Story, Kevin, of course, we're all familiar. It just keeps marching on in terms of the number of articles that I have been seeing popping up. And as you'd expect when we have this yield curve that's now inverted for the two to the 10, and you have Secretary Mnuchin yesterday, right? Talking about floating maybe the 50 year and the 100 year and maybe just putting out some kind of a feeler to see what the market reaction is as that hits the tape. And rates where they are folks right now at 2%. And you talk about whether it's infrastructure, the amount of debt we have, not a bad idea in my opinion to really access those markets if you're going to spend them in the government, put out 2% bonds 100 years. If somebody's going to buy it, man, we've talked about it before, right? I'd be a seller. I'd be a seller of 100 year bond in my personal checking account. If for no other reason, Tommy, to just to test the appetite. Definitely. For what it would be. And if you're going to, you know, the U.S. markets have the most quality and the most demand for their long term paper. So why not just test the market with something that can absolutely help this government? Definitely, definitely. So what else? I know you guys are going to be talking about some of those earnings with Alta. It'd be interesting to see how they come out. You know, I think the last earnings was a Kylie Jenner talking about her brand in there and what they put out. Because we're at the near end. I remember when we were talking on Tuesday, I believe it was, Kevin, on Monday we only had like 13 S&P stocks left in the earnings. So we're really at the tail end with only a handful of stocks coming out with their earnings. And it's remarkable, man, the volatility we have gotten coming into two days left in the summer, Labor Day on Monday. And you had a VIX yesterday, Kevin, at 2164. And just like that, we're now sitting at 1776 as maybe the market's saying, okay, de-escalation from China, where we got two days left in the trading day and the volume pretty light yesterday. And you're probably only going to see that slip off today and of course into Friday into that long weekend. Yeah, pretty interesting. All the risk off assets started on the downside this morning, bonds and the VIX and even the Japanese yen are still on the downside, but gold, gold is down this morning and is rallied all the way back to unchanged. I think that's one of the more interesting trades of the day that gold with a market up big and all the other risk off assets down, gold's hanging in there today at some historically high levels, frankly. I agree, man, because gold, we've seen it. Yeah, we've seen it trade like inverse with the market, Kevin, right? You know, and you see it, I have the gold contract up here on the thinkorswim platform right now at 3 a.m., folks, you had gold up at almost 1560 and it pulls back hard to 1544, but then boom, from 7 a.m. until 9 a.m., you traded $10 up to 1554 and that's as the market continued to trade higher. Well, Kevin, man, we appreciate it. We look forward to the show at 11 o'clock and you have a great long weekend, man. Safe long weekend. We look forward to talking to you next week. Great talking to you, Tommy. Have a great day. You too, man. Take care. Stay tuned, folks. We'll come right back. If you're looking for a scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, TAS understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. We also gained access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted. The best way to use the TAS Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. 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Educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Folks, 877-927-6648. We have the Dow Industries up 247. NASDAQ's up 105. S&Ps are up 27. Slow day in the market, man, as it's been for August as we come into the holiday weekend. There's no doubt. If you get over and take a look at this, folks, what you're going to see now, we're certainly, we're in a range. The thing that's amazing, though, there's no doubt. Talk about a range. Yeah, exactly. Last week we were down on the Dow at 25,500. Well, you're up 800 points from that. Yeah, and you can see. You don't have to be a technician. Top of the range, 26.5. Bottom of the range, 25.5. Nothing like a thousand-point range. Just to see how that range. We'll do the spot. That's perfect, because the Dow, of course, can skew things with, but just mammoth here as well. Nice and simple. 295, and we'll call it, whether you call it, maybe 285 on the conservative side, almost down to 282.50, you know, on the bottom. And that's every point here is 10 points. So when you're talking about 10 points, you're talking about 100 S&P points. And we really almost talk about 125 S&P points from about in the spy, at least. Looking at the upper end, almost 295 in the lower end. Call it this notch right here, which would be 282.50. Watch this. If you do this, folks, with the futures, you're going to see on Sunday night how much lower we were. You see what I'm saying? On Sunday night, you got all the way down to 2810. There you go. 110 points. Now, that being said, guess what? We're going to talk about where the market keeps selling off. And I heard you and Kevin talking. This is what gold has going for it, folks. As the bonds do, each and every time that the market pulls back a little, gold is creeping. Each time the market is up, gold won't give it up. So it's going to get intriguing here watching it. You get 270,000 contracts, just a big contract volume. So you're pushing highs with volume. Can you go closer? Just for the same, because you can see that 3 a.m. So there's where the announcement comes from the Chinese spokesman talking about some calm attitude. Calm down. And you saw the market spike higher. So you saw gold spike lower. They've been a little bit inverse, but that's where you get the duration. But then, like I was saying to Kevin, from 7 a.m., by 9 a.m., we're trading at 50 and 55, and the market continued higher on that whole time. So that's where you get that separation. Gold gains strength at a time when the market's gaining strength. And if we go over to the bonds, you're going to slide back off, but not much, man. All things considered, right? You're at 131 right now. The 10th year, this probably went to a lower yield last night because it looks like it's above 144. Looks like the low. Yeah, so... We're sitting at 151 on that spike probably from the market right now. Look at that. So we hit 144.25 and the low right now is 144.09. Okay, by a hair. Yeah, exactly. And good ol' King Dollar. So King Dollar, folks, right now basically once it got over this again, look at that volume though, this is sick. We're down with 29,600. Monday, it had some volume in it. We did 18,000. And that was the big day it was Friday because that was, like I mentioned to Kevin, that man, things seemed a little worse and it was about to fall apart. Right. And then, guess what? Tuesday, Wednesday, Tuesday, you only did 9,700. Yesterday you did 10,300 and here on Monday, man, they called Trump over the weekend. So Mr. President, we need you to come to the table and do a deal with us. Well, something that I suspect we also keep paying attention to though is, not though, is paying attention to is Mnuchin like saying that, okay, we're not going to intervene in the dollar. There's too much talk about intervening in the dollar. You know what I mean? And you better keep that on the top of your mind because most times there's a lot of conversations that are usually off the table that are somehow on the table recently. And, you know, that 50-100-year bond and the... Listen, there's no doubt. I want 100-year mortgage at 2%. Sign me up, man. Totally. Yeah. What's my payment on that? Oh. Right? Yeah. Seriously. There's no doubt. Never pay it off. And you know, so I just heard there's so many funds going after yield that there's more money than there is yield. Okay. And it was only... it was 2017, so 2019. Yes. When they sold that 100-year bond... Argentina. Argentina. Yes. That's 40 something to the dollar today. Yes. You know, so... That seems like an easy trade going back. That's such a haircut, man. I mean... We said at the time, who's buying? And now it would be one thing in the U.S., right? Yeah, you could buy that, maybe. Maybe, right? Yeah. But Argentina, man. I know. You know? Really, you have faith and confidence for a century. And you bought it at full price. Yeah, for a century. So you're talking about when you got grandkids and great-grandkids that you're confident that they're going to be paying that back. Argentina. Right. I mean, I wouldn't have confidence in almost anybody for 100 years with what can happen in political turmoil. Yeah. America was to 2019. Right? I mean, that's like 100 years. The world changes dramatically in that time. Oh, my God. In a huge way. Let's go take a look at some of the higher-volume equities and I expect we're going to have a low-volume market out here. We're kicking into Labor Day. Oh, look at that. Oh, my God. We'll find out what Oli's bargain is. But Oli's bargain is down 21 bucks. Yeah, and I happen to see them on the... At 56. Maybe they have some earnings. Oli's bargain. Well, I've never even heard of this company. So, Oli's chain of retail stores that offer brand-name products with discounts. Maybe Dollar General's eating their lunch. Low is 54. The high is... Dollar General's up today, obviously. So, revenue-wise, look at that big company. Not bad. They take in 325 million a quarter. Look at that growth. Three-year growth, 17%. But what have you done for me lately? Yeah, Oli's. Oh, man. Wow, look at this. So, this is a classic too. That's December. So, here's another one that's back to December now. So, December has a high volume low. Yep. Oh, watch this, folks. So, this also... So, you had a high volume low in December. $59.72. You made a high with 15 million, and this was always dangerous. And look at how you come off the high. 26 million. What happens there, folks, is that what I've seen, when you come off the high with volume, it's like, who's selling? But it seems that the folks that are the largest owners in the equity get out. And so, then what ends up happening is that even as it goes down, they're not there coming back in. Like, if you've decided that, okay, you had a nice position, the opposition started at 23, going back to 2016. I'm saying, amen. I think this thing's going to slow down. I'm at $60. That's always a big problem. Oh, man. Oh, natural gas, right? Oh, we sure do. Let's see if we can get a quick feel for where the market is before we come in. So, we get the EIA numbers coming into 1030. We'll jump into the commodities. Where are we in natural gas? We're sitting at 227. We're looking at the October contract. Talk about a little pop. $0.05 move, yeah. Yeah, jumps up all the way. We're looking at the Trump administration considering rolling back regulations on methane. And I wonder if that plays into the natural gas contract. But we'll get those numbers in three minutes. Natural gas into 227. Quite a little pop this morning already. Big 10. Dow, Dow Industries up 260, Nasdaqs up 109, SAPs up 28. Come right back, host. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. Included in Market Insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter at risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. This is a piece of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. 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Using this first-of-its-kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, and the chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. So, natural gas rose 60 BCF. Yeah, it looks like the median estimate was around a rise of 57. The Bloomberg survey had a rise of 58 pretty close to in line. No real reaction. I say no real reaction. Drop the penny pretty quickly, because a little bit more, right? Three BCF, three billion cubic feet, maybe more than they were looking for, but compared to the move we had this morning, not too ridiculous of a move sitting right at that 227 price point right now. And so kind of what I referenced going into that break, we'll pull this article, there we go. So news coming out this morning that the Trump administration, the EPA to roll back regulations on methane, which of course, I say of course, but maybe not all are aware, a potent greenhouse gas. So interesting stuff in here in terms of so the Trump administration said to announce on Thursday it tends to sharply curtail the regulation of methane emissions, a major contributor to climate change according to industry officials with knowledge. The EPA in a proposed rule will aim to eliminate the federal requirements that oil and gas companies install technology to inspect for and fix methane leaks from wells, pipelines and storage facilities. Interesting here that the major energy companies actually against this because we'll dig down there further. They've spent millions of dollars already to put those in place. Be in line with those regulations. It doesn't make much sense that you have a well when you get stuff leaking out of it either. Especially when so I'm scrolling a lot here but to dig down, so here we go overall carbon dioxide, I think we're all familiar with this one there's a significant greenhouse gas but methane is closed second. It lingers in the atmosphere for a short period of time but packs a bigger punch well at last by some estimates methane 80 times the heat trapping power of CO2 in the first 20 years and methane currently makes up nearly 10% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. a significant portion coming from the oil and gas sector. So I don't have a huge fundamental understanding of the natural gas market but I'm wondering whether that putting some into the price this morning? Sure, but nonetheless, yeah. Yeah. I know, right? Pretty remarkable. So we go over here, let's go, I want to take a look at the these chips, NVDA. So the chips once again they don't have the juice behind them, they're interesting, they get the price behind them like Nvidia is up five and a half bucks but this is still a range too. 15 million is at 2.8 that might have some decent volume out here today. The banks XLF the banks still are in tough shape. Oh, I see this is already going to fail this is going to be interesting watching this. So you got the XLF today up to a 2678 look at the velocity the downdraft high was 2679 almost by a penny I know, almost we'll see how that shakes out meaning but it looks like it's going to fail out here today, right at the highs too, JP Morgan, JPM How's Jamie Diamond doing this? Yeah, exactly. He's holding price, that's up a buck 97 that's the difference, he's holding price and let's go see what Berkshire is doing particularly so Berkshire folks what ends up happening, that's up a buck 73 now let's test in the highs and so what you have here is this and this is, you want to talk about something that's deviant folks, okay is that we have the hover cane that's coming into Florida, right so I remember the first couple times that this happened and you're thinking that all the insurance companies are going to get smoked, right? because they have liability out there, right what ends up happening is that oh, and by the way, this is congratulations, this is our anniversary at Katrina today, today, August 29th August 29th I don't even want to ask you what year 14 years ago 2005, 2004 that's 15 years ago 2004 2004, we'll talk about that in a second seriously, that's a trip that sure is so the Berkshire Hathaway deal in the insurance companies in general what I've seen is that when a hurricane hits they go down for like a day and then they go up dramatically because what happens, like the east coast of Florida has not got a major hurricane in 14 years it's weird, okay but that's the bottom line I'd love to hear how that's classified I know I'd love to hear how that's classified so get the gist of it what ends up happening is that when they have to pay off then they go to the regulators and up the rates again it's pretty intense, yeah, 2005 it was 2005, 14 years ago Katrina, we're out there at Harris the Harris in New Orleans Odyssey Marine exploration that poor company as in they were launching an exhibit, a whole new it was Odyssey Marine Day folks and the parade that was the parade they had a whole exhibit in terms of they had found that shipwreck they had taken a bunch of the artifacts created a whole exhibit in New Orleans to kind of extend the lifeline of the profitability of that discovery built an exhibit of it in New Orleans for the exhibit I'm not sure if it's still there maybe it is, I'm not sure it closed like two years later it just did New Orleans was the most close to it the reason they had done it like that is that there's an exhibit Max, someone that had found a bunch of gold there's an exhibit down in Key West and there's already another one there it's a good tourist New Orleans has enough tourists you're looking for things to do while you're in the city to see the gold I remember they had one huge gold bar in there just like they had one in Key West 14 years man thank goodness we were doing a little gambling at Harris because we had some cash folks and that's the lesson you get ready for these storms, have some cash no ATMs, people trying to trade diamond necklaces diamond earrings, watches just to get around nobody had cash, thankfully we had a little cash I made a little money at poker the night before we had some cash on us from the gambling and we were about the only ones out in the street too by the way we weren't the only ones in the street why do we have to go we were not the only ones in the street there were a lot of people we were not the only people in the streets in New Orleans because just to put it we were fortunate that we actually weren't in the streets I'm talking about the night before that was a bad deal we were lucky that we were staying in a Hilton high-rise because the whole French quarter we just got shut down you had families staying in the French quarter those hotels just were not willing to take the liability of housing people they literally just closed, kick people out see families walking around with their bags, kids, know where to go and what happened we were so lucky that the Hilton had folks so it was pitchy, you get the outside of the Hilton but their conference room was in the middle and that was all blocked off everybody had to come out of their rooms the conference room they were worried about the windows the wind gusts there you had to sign a waiver if you want to stay in your room and of course there were some people who couldn't use the stairs as much they were worried we were very fortunate though being in a big hotel like that hopefully this storm as we're talking about it why not just because I have the cone up here somewhere there we go there's Dorian it's going from east to west east to west east to west usually they come and they loop into the gulf usually they go right up they'll come up the Atlantic coast but this one the cone of course from the potential areas that could hit and hopefully because the gulf some of the warmest waters out there the Atlantic is still warm late August or early September hopefully that keeps it in at two or three by the time it touches land it's down to a two or one put all that good white light send that baby out to sea that's right man so as we're talking the S&P pull back eight points Dow, Dow up 196 Nasdaq up 83 S&P up 22 come right back if you're in the CD market there's a lot of lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% $1550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First Mortgage Program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years what should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the Tiger First Mortgage Program you can call me at 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 what are you waiting for? all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up-to-date, affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive 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information about direction shares contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC www.sMPbiotech.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information folks dow dow is up 229, dow is up 92 SMPs are up 25 and if we go over to those the interest rates folks and we take a look at the curve right now let's talk a little yield inversion and what you're going to see is that you get a nice inversion and this is the third day so now we're banging out 5.01 the two-year banging 1.516 pretty remarkable man and you know the cool thing about markets in general is that you get probably a propaganda out there and fake news and all of this that the administration lays out and Navarro, Peter Navarro we're going to bring this up right now is basically he's been out there for quite some time saying that along with many others right saying no no no recession don't listen to the yield curve that doesn't mean anything so I saw a tweet one of my buddies shared with me this morning I found pretty interesting I want to talk about so it doesn't matter who this Twitter account is this is an opinion columnist for the post but they're talking about as and this is just fact Navarro keeps going on TV saying he knows the inverted yield curve which he calls flat and I guess he has doesn't signal recession because he quote wrote several books on the efficacy of the yield curve as a leading economic indicator and you want to hear what he wrote folks this is the books and this is where details matter okay so the first one the master cyclist's favorite forecasting tools perfect okay so and I'm going to read a little bit above the red just to give it some context but we're going to go through a few of these because it's remarkable what he actually said and this is what you should be listening to because this is what he was saying when he actually wrote a book and he wasn't just out there for his king so he says as for the flat yield curve observed in 1989 every inverted yield curve must go through a flat phase however not every flat curve inverts still a flat curve is an only slightly weaker signal of recession although it predicted all of the past six recessions within an eight quarter horizon it also had two false signals okay not too dramatic right it's better and better given the yield curves excellent forecasting track record it seems truly remarkable that so many corporate executives chose to ignore its strong recessionary warning signals leading up to the 2001 downturn to see why the claims of CEOs such as John Chambers that quote the brightest people in the world didn't see the recession coming are so hollow well who's the hollow one right now okay just consider a figure we don't have the figure but it charts the ominous progression of the yield curve from its normal quote shape in 99 of June of 99 to the flat curve in November of 99 and finally to the recession signaling inversion in March of 2000 here's the best one now watch this one yet the broad forecasting point we can extract from this very typical scenario is this colon the yield curve is such a powerful forecasting tool precisely because it embodies the collective wisdom of millions of highly sophisticated investors quite literally putting trillions of dollars on the table in highly intelligent speculative bets on the direction of the business cycle that is about as far from a Ouija board forecasting as you can get so which one are you going to believe a guy touting for his king who can't handle anyone who disagrees with him or what he wrote actually when nobody was you know he wasn't a good writer that's I'm surprised he has the you know a student is actually right like that to be fair but so keep that in mind when you see you know the president's cheerleaders out there talking about don't listen to the yield curve folks yeah you better be listening to that yield okay there's no doubt staggering what we're going through in the yield curve in terms of this is not normal stuff when you start talking about inversions and then at the same time talking about 50 or talking about a hundred because they're so low talking about the fed's going to maybe drop 50 basis points mid-meeting right I mean it's just and then you have a s&p dividend yield above the bond yields I mean just everywhere across the board not good signs no no and you know that I think the bad thing here is to figure out like just that he was saying it's eight quarters because that's like yeah it's usually ahead by a year or two it doesn't mean it's gonna fall apart tomorrow it's like okay man you know it's pretty amazing well we all just gonna watch it there's a million things going on but it's important to see that type of commentary to contrast it with just you know Cudlow out there Navarro out there and all they're saying is everything's cool reelect Trump all right so be aware of what actually gets said when they're not in a political position because all they're talking about right now is politics right okay so just be aware of that it's it's well it's mass because they represent themselves as you know financial right but when they were actually in that role of financial without being in the administration right they said very different things right so keep that in mind and let's go back over to the s&p so this is going to get interesting here this is where you got right up to the highs again and you know someone loaded on this thing look at this thing you know we have a 10 minute up there and someone unloaded in 10 minutes they unloaded 79,000 contracts that's a big number man it's a half a percent 15 s&p points yeah 2920 to 2905 in any other universe that's usually a mammoth move right yeah but in context to where the market's been moving man yeah looks like a blip on the chart and you know folks if you get this is all let's see that's 3 a.m. we're actually inside it once you get inside this 2911 you know sure rejected right now but that means there's game down to the bottom again to that was the quick spike at 3 a.m. and you can see if you just take the volume characteristic that was the spike was at 45,000 contracts down track big one 79,000 yeah you know and you know we'll see how this baby shakes out let's go to the nq's for nq you 9 yep of course I knew it was going to be there but let's see oh yeah the nq's are heavy 22,000 contracts going into 11 so 7668 it's right there we're going to dig into these folks this is going to get interesting this is a oh boy hey just when do you think I mean to bring people back again where it's like the fall apart at the end of 2018 that was Christmas Eve so don't think like Friday before Labor Day that all is well every single point that we pull up on that chart still to this day where we look at those lows of December of 2018 Christmas Eve you know and that was a shocker so be aware that this is a different market if things really pick up I mean Twitter's open all day today I think so so be aware yeah wild man so let's look at this white saying that Tim Cook has sold stock for the first time this year let's see what did he sell oh boy insider selling that seems to be a commonality recently I was reading an article I think when I did the program on Tuesday insider selling reaching a level that we haven't seen since 2007 something about 10 billion dollars and I forget whether it was a day a week whatever it was now granted the market is so much higher than it was in 2007 so it wouldn't mean as much 10 billion being sold today as it would be 10 billion being sold in 2007 but we're at those levels last time we saw them insider selling 2007 and then you got Apple that would be interesting yeah there it is right there 850 54,000 file and date was that two days ago two days ago but I'm not sure if that says so it's uh he's got quote up there the Cook sold 265,000 shares on August 22nd 26 excuse me so maybe that is the filing date that before this he had an additional 200 and he sold stock 54.7 million bucks are you a buyer a seller folks from the CEOs of sell them think about that seriously excuse me folks stay right there Tommy and I are going to be coming right back we have the dial up to 12 now it's like a 86 piece of 22 coming right back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my 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For more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Folks down, that was up to 18 that was except 90 S&Ps are up 23 and we're just talking about Tim Cook but guess what there's a lot of other insiders that are selling just like 2007. Party like it's 1999 or like it's 2007. It's pretty heavy man. So yeah I talked about this earlier in the week this article from Tuesday I guess but just to highlight if you weren't listening to the program on Tuesday so corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million a stock per day per day in August that's going to go up with Tim Cook selling $54 million himself August on track to be the fifth month of the year which insider selling tops $10 billion the only other time that has happened was in 2006 and 2007 and yeah that's it I said to you when I pulled that up I remember that specifically folks and they were selling a good year before the market crash 2006 crash is 2008 right and it's pretty interesting when you have the yield curve people saying the same thing listen it forecasted but it forecasted it's a year year and a half 18 months out kind of eerie and again the only thing to consider is that from where the market was in 2006 to where it is now insiders would probably have to be selling 20 to 25 billion to make it comparable but nonetheless that's something you should have on your radar one of the 2754 things you should have on your radar every day this to me it's just like you know I haven't heard anyone yet that they're going to be a buyer of the 100 year bond if we do it but there will be someone they're talking about you know if you have liabilities going out that far certain situations right you can you know that would make sense but to put that product out there you need a sustained demand and that's where there's a lot of questions whether you'd have a sustained demand like you have in the 30 year trillions of dollars going through it with that transfer to something like a 50 year 100 year I think that's putting those feelers out so right there folks to get fast market coming up next and we get on man Mr Basil Chapman Steve Rhodes Dave White I'll be back this afternoon okay we'll see where we are by four o'clock oh yeah oh yeah we'll get them folks