 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a jam-packed show for today here on covering the spread We've got to talk EPL match week 34th Austin cast We're gonna talk some formula one in Shanghai Nascar and Talladega a lot of ground to cover Let's dive on in and break it all down This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Join you to kick things up by Austin cast you can find him on Twitter at Austin cast check out his work Over at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin. Happy Thursday to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing great Jim. How are you Jim? Disoriented because typically I talk to you Fridays and today is not Friday and I am very my body is confused about that So if if something goes goes haywire I think we got to blame the schedule here But also like I needed Tom Vecchia tomorrow talks and Santa Monica playoffs and the NBA playoffs So like and I and I didn't want to skip our EPL chat So like I had to do this, but I feel like I'm paying for it now via massive confusion Yeah, if you don't show up for work tomorrow, I'll hit you up and remind you that it's Friday actually so don't Let it go. Just let me drift Let me drift off to the abyss and we'll we'll recoup later on I'm sure the company will be just fine without me for one day As mentioned we're talk to Austin about EPL match week 34 breaking down the matches But also talking a lot of movement towards the top of the table will break down that and whether it is officially over For everyone who is not named man city and of course later on as I mentioned I'll talk through my favorite bet for formula one in Shanghai this weekend And we'll talk through NASCAR and Talladega where I am above consensus on one specific team slash manufacturer the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your Podcast tomorrow as mentioned Tom Vecchia will be with us breaking down Stanley Cup playoffs and the NBA playoffs as well on yesterday's show We had Connor Allen of four for four and Betz Burt's talking through the NFL draft talked about his here at Betz over a Fandall sportsbook during that to find that go to the covering the spread podcast feed hit subscribe If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify You can also find that show today's show tomorrow show on the Fandall YouTube page and over On a fan dual TV plus now Austin will talk about the matches in a second But first a lot of movement towards the top of the table in the EPL because both Arsenal and Liverpool lost You said last week or two weeks ago. It was a good time to buy low on man City, but now they're minus 250 So I'm assuming the buy low window is closed and is this race basically over Yeah, the short answers. Yes, I think it's over I think there's a very realistic chance City wins out the rest of the way on paper Their two toughest matchups are at Brighton and at Tottenham, but I think City's still going to be pretty heavy favorites in both Arsenal and Liverpool really messed up last Sunday losing home matches to teams They should have beaten and they put it back in City's hands And I don't think City are gonna let it go and City actually just went out in the Champions League yesterday So they'll have an FA Cup semi-final and probably final match But they'll be able to really focus on the Premier League now and that's really bad news for Arsenal and Liverpool I think it's over. So you give man City a leg up. You give them more rest. You give them their players at full health That's tough like it was fun while it lasted, but I feel like this thing's Dustin Yeah, I agree. I really really wanted this to be a three-team race to the last couple games And it was just amazing how quickly it swung on Sunday Liverpool lost at home To Crystal Palace, which just still can't believe that happened And then the next match on TV right after that was Arsenal at home against Villa and they lost as well And I can't imagine what man City's players had to be thinking watching that play out Sunday But it was their best day of the season and they didn't get off the couch. So Yeah, I've mentioned this before but my brother-in-law is a Crystal Palace fan and he was a bit nervous for a relegation one point this Year, I think they're they're pretty good now. They're at 33 points. So they should be okay So I was I was pretty okay with that personally with the way things went down there. Okay, seven matches Across Saturday and Sunday Austin. Where are you seeing a value in the traditional markets at Fandall Sportsbook? So I really like the Bournemouth at the Villa match It's Sunday at 830 and I really like Bournemouth and the double chance market to win or draw just minus 105 So as we just kind of talked about Villa had their best win in the season, Alaya Arsenal last Sunday they won 2-0 but through the lens of expected goals, they're a pretty fortunate and Overall, I'd say they played pretty well, especially defensively in this especially in the second half. They played very well But I think this is a prime letdown spot for them And then in addition to that Villa actually haven't been playing that well of late Which sounds weird to say because they just got their biggest win of the season But they haven't won the XG battle according to FB ref's expected goal model and any of their last six league matches Their most recent XG triumph was by 0.1 at Luton Town, which is a side currently in 18th In my eyes, there's a pretty obvious reason for their struggles lately And it said Villa is getting worn down from playing Thursday Europa conference league matches They've had four of those since March 7th the extra matches and big matches at that Take a toll on everyone and Villa simply don't have the squad depth To be able to rotate players in and out and still get the results they want to get And it's not just that it's extra matches. It's the foreign travel to Villa plays in France tonight And so they'll be flying back this evening and then have to turn around and play on Sunday Meanwhile, that's not something Bournemouth have to deal with at all They won't have played since last weekend. In addition to all that Bournemouth have actually been playing pretty well They've been beaten only once across their last seven league matches. It's been a pretty favorable schedule in that stretch But they tied Villa 2-2 earlier this year So this match is super important for Villa's top four hopes Which was another thing that swung a lot on this past weekend with Tottenham losing and Villa winning at Arsenal But every match to the rest of the way is really important for Villa But I think there's enough here between Villa's fixture Congestion their travel and just their overall kind of shoddy form lately lately to push me toward Bournemouth getting at least a point So right now the double chance market Bournemouth to win or draw is minus 105 How much do you think this number is influenced by the big Aston Villa victory over the weekend? A little bit To be honest when I researched it yesterday it was plus 110 Okay, that's pretty excited about it. So I was a little bummed this morning that it wasn't as good of a deal when I was gonna talk about it but You know the markets pretty sharp typically so they must be taking some money on Bournemouth, but Like I was saying it's it's just really hard for a team like Aston Villa to fight on multiple fronts Like they're trying to do right now Newcastle tried to do it this year and really just like couldn't do it So, yeah, I think they're really getting worn down now that you it could flip to where that went against Arsenal Could really propelled in the rest of the way and they they could even go out of the Europa conference league tonight which for their top four hopes probably wouldn't be a bad thing but Yeah, I just think they look like a worn down team that is Needs the end of the season to get here as fast as it can Okay, so Austin does like Bournemouth in this match against Aston Villa minus one of five to win or draw on the double-chance market What are player props any value to you standing out there as of right now Austin? Yeah, so I'm gonna stick with Sunday and go with Liverpool at Fulham I'm gonna take Mohamed Salah. Just be any time goal scorer It's pretty rare to be able to get Salah plus odds to score. It's plus 110 I believe It's pretty out to get him at plus odds to score in a game where Liverpool are huge favorites They're minus 200 to win it feels like Salah's been oddly quiet in Premier League play of late That's kind of what I thought in my mind and that's like the Twitter narrative, which you know, sometimes those aren't true He's still been pretty good he scored twice over four starts since he came back from injury He's played all 90 minutes in three of those four matches and just put at least one shot on target in 13 consecutive league matches Full member pretty nice matchup They've allowed the sixth most extra G on the season and Liverpool scored four on them when they played earlier this campaign Liverpool also Just completely have their backs against the wall now and probably are gonna need to win out the rest of the way to have any shot at one in the league titles, so I Like full or sorry. I like Salah against Fulham at these plus 110 odds Yeah, and we talked about how we think it's over and man said he's got the win But that doesn't mean that Liverpool treat it that way like their odds are still you know They're above 15% to win the whole thing at least based on the betting data So although we may not be betting them they're gonna treat it as if this is a must-win match I think that's a benefit for Salah given his importance to this team Given the importance of this game I feel like we can still have a lot of faith that they're gonna be pull or full pedal to the metal going here for Yeah, they definitely will be and You know it it can it can swing city could lose to somebody If if Liverpool could lose at home to Palace like city could definitely lose that Brighton or at Tottenham And this thing could swing again So I'm sure like you were saying Liverpool feels like they're right there and in the table. They are right there It's the odds market where they're not right there, but right. Yeah, I still think there's a chance like you said and with their manager Jurgen Klopp even at the end of this year they Got a little extra incentive to try to send him out with a week title, right? Exactly, so motivation will still be high for Liverpool So Austin likes most Salah to score that is plus 110 at Fandall Sportsbook and on the Bournemouth win or a draw matchup It gets Aston Villa. That is minus 105 that is Austin Cass Make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin Appreciate the time as always. Good luck to you. Enjoy your Thursday not Friday and we'll talk to you once again soon Sounds good. Thank you Jim. Alrighty big. Thank you once again to Austin find him on Twitter at Austin Cass We'll talk about some formula one in Shanghai in just one second followed by Nascar and Talladega But first NBA play-in tournament two more games left And it gives teams a chance to play their way into the postseason So only seems right that new customers on Fandall can play their way into 150 bucks Just place any $5 bet and you'll get 150 bucks and bonus bets win or lose to use during the NBA playoffs Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and President select states first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Arizona 188 79 Or visit ccpg.org Connecticut 109 with it in Indiana 105 22 4700 visit KS gambling health.com in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in West Virginia 105 22 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 803 2750 50 or 24 7 supporter Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 open y or text open y in New York Let's take a look now at formula one in this weekend They are in Shanghai for the first time since before COVID 2019 the last time f1 ran in China And the tears for this year in formula one are becoming very very clear where it's red bull number one Then there's a drop then it's Ferrari then there is another drop down to McLaren and third But I kind of think that McLaren might be closer to Ferrari than perception So I want to bet on Lando Norris this weekend You could potentially consider the outright at 36 to 1 but I prefer Norris to podium that is plus 230 Right now at Fandall sportsbook now If you're looking at Norris the past couple weeks his past couple races his race pace has been very very good he's finished within striking distance of Charlotte Claire in both those races now From a results perspective La Claire is finished behind both or sorry Norris is finished behind both signs La Claire in every race that those guys have run But he's had speed and it's still early in the years to for a sample for those results So I don't know how for sure how these tears will break down as the year goes along I think for right now I feel pretty good with it being red bull drop Ferrari drop McLaren, but that might not stick We don't know how things will shift as a year goes along And we also don't know yet how track fit will influence things because you don't have a good enough sample on the cars and various Circuits have not seen the circus 2019 So I think there is at least some some reason to believe the gap between Norris and the Ferraris is smaller than what it is right now You see signs minus 155 as is the Claire to podium then Norris a plus 230 That's a pretty big drop the implied odds of plus 230 are 30.3 percent I have Norris at 41.4 percent to podium. I also do show a value on him to win at 36 to 1 That's probably a bit rich because he has to top not just the two Ferraris But also for Stappen and Checo Perez all of whom are likely gonna be faster than Norris this weekend So probably not gonna get there, but I think I can ride the podium at plus 230 So Lando Norris a guy I want to buy into this week for formula one Last thing I wanted to discuss for today is NASCAR in Talladega and when I look at the odds over at Fandall Sportsbook I am specifically above market on one team where I show a value in the outright market on all three drivers That team is team Penske. You got Ryan Blaney at 10 to 1 Joey Logano 10 to 1 and then Austin Cedric down at 30 to 1 now I'd be into Blaney and Logano at 12 to 1. I took them early this week personally at that number 10 to 1 is a bit thinner and I want a bit more of a gap between my model in the market to bet on guys at a super speed way But Cedric, I'm very okay with at 30 to 1 to win this week I've got Cedric at 5.4 percent to win his implied odds are 3.2 percent And the reason that Cedric is up there is because he has a very good track record on pack track So Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta. Obviously Cedric did win the Daytona 500 back in 2022 Couple other podiums that year as well finished fifth in Talladega last year and he was fourth in Atlanta this year But Cedric runs up front He leads lap and that laughs and that puts him in contention to win pretty much all of these races And we saw this in the X72 because Cedric won Daytona there He had three top fives and six races at Talladega So this is a pretty good number to get on Cedric I do not show value currently on Cedric to finish inside the top five or the top ten at Fandall Sportsbook So Really, it's kind of a winner-bust kind of thing for me at least based on where I'm seeing values So Cedric 30 to 1 the place I'm going if let's say hypothetically later on this week Blaney or Lugano slide to 12 to 1 at Fandall Sportsbook I would bite then like if they don't that they'll qualify well But like if they didn't qualify well and they slipped to 12 to 1 I'd be okay buying them there, but for now riding with just the Cedric outright Let's say though you want a bit of a safer bet and you want Exposure in a way to both Blaney and Lugano I think you can get that via Ford to win their plus 180 right now at Fandall Sportsbook Chevy plus 120 followed by Toyota And I think that's a good value to get on Ford because most the drivers I show value on drive for as I mentioned before I've got value a bit on Blaney and Lugano But then also Cedric, but then I'm at least close to market on some longer shots to like Todd Gilliland Ryan Priess even Harrison Burton down there at longer than 101 all guys. I am at least close to Relative to market the implied odds of plus 180 are 35.7 percent I've got Ford at 42.1 percent to win So Ford still trying to get that that win for this year. They've struggled haven't let a lot of laps The exception has been on super speedways where they've run really well both this year and in years past So I think Ford a value at plus 180 to win at this race in Talladega on Sunday gets me exposure to all three Penske drivers in my model likes and Gets me higher odds of actually cashing a ticket while still being a good value by my numbers at Fandall Sportsbook So for to win plus 180 the other spot. I am turning to you for this week That's all we got here for today on Covering the spread as mentioned big show once again tomorrow talking to Tom Vecchio about some Stanley Cup playoffs We'll talk some NBA playoffs to if you want to get the thoughts from Connor Allen on the end or the NFL drafts Go to the covering the spread podcast feed at the Fandall YouTube page or over on Fandall TV plus big Thank you once again to Austin cast check him out on Twitter at Austin cast find his work at Fandall research I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can follow Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets today on Thursday Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some NBA and NHL This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network