 Dear participants, welcome to SEI Currents 2024. Today we'll be looking ahead at some of the fundamental streams of change in the world that we in SEI like to call Currents. My name is Mons Nilsson. I'm the Executive Director of SEI and this will be the third annual edition of Currents. We build these Currents based on consultations around our research centres around the world. SEI has centres in Estonia, Thailand, Kenya, Colombia, US and UK, and of course the headquarters here in Stockholm. And over these six regions we have a globally connected research institute with its air to the ground in these different locations, but also our ability to cross-mobilise leverage expertise across the centres to address and approach sustainable development questions that are truly universal, such as climate change, mitigation and adaptation, natural resources and ecosystems, governance and people's lives, health and well-being connected to for example pollution and sanitation. To develop these Currents or these descriptions of Currents and Analysis we carry out a survey of our experts. We have focus groups around the world and then we refine and consult and interview our lead experts always with an eye to the global arena and how it connects to the regions that we work in. And the three Currents are published right now at two o'clock Central European Time on our website and you can look at them in more detail later on. Actually looking back at last year we had some Currents that were including discussions on the democracy deficit, the rise of authoritarianism, conflicts and war, which we have indeed seen escalating across for example the Sahel and the Middle East. We had the technology disruption with AI as a main driver and indeed AI has really overturned things during 2023 and we had the cost of living crisis and inflation. And you know I think while it was impossible to predict how this would play out and affect everyone they were very much the most important ones that shaped international events during 2023. Just to give an example of the complexity if we talk about cost increases this would make you think that for example increased cost of capital interest rates would work against renewable electricity installations as compared to fossil fuels since the CAPEX costs are relatively much larger share in renewables. But we are now noting that the increased cost of capital has not really slowed down the expansion of renewable electricity which is now set to almost triple by 2030 truly remarkable capacity expansions both for production capacity and installed capacity. This was really not evident you know and how the inflationary pressures have affected the energy market it's very complex but I think we were on the right sort of focus area although predicting how it would play out is a much more difficult thing. The three currents that will be presented here today plays a significant role for us not just this webinar but also as we are now in the process of developing our next five year strategy and building on of course what we have done well at SEI and what we're interested in researching but also adapting to the changing global context. Finally the year 2024 is a bit of a nervous year for us both in terms of how conflicts will play out in the world but perhaps even more for us how key elections will turn out as we have elections coming up in the European Union parliamentary election and new commission in the United States and in India. But let's now get into the real business and hear about some of these fundamentals that without a doubt will shape these elections and other global events. So I'll hand over to Robert Watts our global engagement director at SEI to take us through the 2024 currents over to you Rob. Thanks very much Mons and a very warm welcome from me as well to all of our online participants today and our fantastic panel that you'll be hearing from a little bit later. I'm really lucky I'm in a great position I'm the one that gets to you know look at the results of SEI gazing into its crystal ball and give you a summary of the three currents that we've come up with but before I get into those three I wanted to sort of get you into the right mindset of thinking about currents why do we call these trends that are influencing in some way sustainability in the coming 12 months and why do we call them currents in the first place well I mean you might imagine that well perhaps we've been inspired by just simply the idea of current affairs these are things that are on the in the minds of policymakers and and business leaders globally and and there's something to that certainly but perhaps we should delve a little bit into the the etymology of current and current affairs it really comes and from au courant the French to be well informed so yeah this is again something that we hope to be able to do through these currencies to look at the what's out there and make sure that we're well informed but we can delve even further there into currents and where does current and courant come from well it comes from the latin it comes from the latin for running or flowing and this makes you think perhaps of well history is simply just one thing after another as things flow but on the other hand you may also be reminded of what the philosopher herodotus said about flowing rivers that the person can never step into the same river twice nor will that person be the same person if they try to do so and and the this is this is absolutely I think something that we want to to get across when we thought about the name of currents that yes they want to be about current affairs things that are actual and and and matter now but they're also reflecting the fact that these currents are affecting the course of those events that they shape the the way in which the river flows but also that even those that are dipping their toes into the river are also affected by these currents another way of thinking about currents of course is like in in terms of electricity the flow of well let's hope it as many green electrons as possible is is part of of the idea of currents they're the things that power our homes and even this webinar but currents and electricity can lead to some shocks as well and not only that they create magnetic fields that attract and deflect things and that's another way that we want you to think about these currents that they're pushing and pulling against each other that they may affect affect each other as well I'm sure that many people on listening in today will have been aware of the recent world economic forum global risks report perhaps it should be called almost the global pessimism report this year at least where I think some very large majority I think even 90 percent of respondents felt that there was a good chance there was going to be some sort of catastrophe in the medium term what we want to do with our current is not only look at the dire realities of the world as it is now but also look at the opportunities and the signposts for how we're going to deal with these challenges over the next 12 months we want to be seeing where those winds are blowing and we want to be able to read the currents so that we can avoid any riptides ultimately this whole exercise including our discussion with panellists and hearing from you as well during the course of this event it's trend spotting and trend setting and with that I'd like to introduce our first current which is on the subject of climate change and it's all about the target one of the targets of the Paris Agreement that's 1.5 degree target and has 1.5 has a number ever carried more of a warning last year was a record year when it came to temperature and this year with the effects of last year's El Nino hanging over us into this year there is a good chance that we'll be seeing us exceeding this 1.5 degree target in many places so 1.5 degrees is perhaps here now and that's despite this breakneck technological progress that we've seen the advantageous economies of renewables and of course the evidence of our own eyes whether that is in flooding or in forest fires and the multiple political declarations that we've had over the last decade or so ultimately we seem to be in some sort of paradox one where we can after COP 28 in Dubai begin to sort of talk about the end of the fossil fuel era that there may be a peak in fossil fuel use in sight but at the same time concerned that that peak may lead simply to another plateau in the same way emissions again of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases may also be at a peak or at least that peak be coming in sight and yet there there seem to be transition headwinds headwinds that may be to do with politics and elections that months has already alluded to or the difficulty in just simply implementing at warp speed all of these solutions so for 2024 we're thinking that actually this discussion is going to be well it could be about doom and gloom it could be one that's then drives people to discuss extreme solutions and policies things such as geoengineering or it could be talking more constructively and pragmatically about how to deal with this overshoot how to make sure that we limit both the magnitude and duration of exceeding 1.5 degrees so that we begin to talk about how it's important that every month we can day that we avoid straying beyond 1.5 degrees that that those things matter and during the course of this year those elections that we've already heard about those that are taking place in the European Union in India in Indonesia as well as the one in the United States that those will be critical in determining perhaps the extent to which we can chart a pathway away from the doom and more towards pragmatism and trying to get to that warp speed implementation we're also in a period where we're preparing for the next round of nationally determined contributions that'll be 2025 but already people will be turning their minds to that and in the European Union there will be a proposal put forward in the next month and a half or so relating to a 2040 climate target and lastly when it comes to geoengineering for example there's going to be discussion of that at the United Nations Environment Assembly in about a month and a half time so the governance of these things is still hot it's still really on the agenda so there are plenty of signposts for the ways and the forums in which we'll be discussing these things let me go to our second current if i can now and so our second current is is perplexingly perhaps called the new space race now i don't want you to cast your minds back to landing people on moon in this case but rather we're talking about space in terms of the competition the race for control over access to minerals to land for food production for land to site energy and that goes also for oceans as well so it is all about competition for access to land oceans but also in space and i'll come to that in due course of course you know this idea of having a race and competing over strategic assets has been around forever in a sense seizing and expropriating resources making sure you have control over trade routes whether that's the silk road or the spice trade that's been the subject of people such with names such as Alexander William and Genghis in the past then the fact is that now we need to do it all in terms of making sure that we are feeding people that we are powering the energy transition and have the right resources to do so that we are taking care of ecosystems not only for their ecological and cultural value but also as critical carbon dioxide sinks it was about 55 years ago that the image that you see in front of you was taken by William Anders the astronaut and he said that we had then set out to explore the moon but instead discovered the earth and perhaps this year is another time in which we need to do that again to make sure that we understand how who gets what who gets what and why the fact is that governments may be facing some pretty untenable choices or at least unenviable ones at least between feeding people meeting time it targets preserving nature thinking about prosperity today weighed up against safeguarding the well-being of people tomorrow and i promised i'd say something a little bit about the race in space as well a place where low orbit satellites is opening up new ways for us to understand and rediscover the world and monitor its health but we're also some extraordinary ideas related to mining on the moon are actively being discussed and actually there is a moment this year where that will be on the agenda which is at the summit of the future at the towards the end of this year in september this year where the future of outer space governance will be on the will be discussed when it comes to access to critical world materials lithium and copper for example which are often the subject of quite a lot of debate but also on the ground competition whether that is lithium in zimbabwe or copper in Panama the legislation that's taking place and is going through the machinery in the european union will be one that we should keep an eye on in the EU's critical raw materials act and then when it comes to oceans and how we use them well the high seas treaty is there and we really have an opportunity now to move it forward to a stage of ratification of actually making sure that we are sustainably protecting our ocean resources lastly our third current our third current is the future of multilateralism i really can't say much more here than just to read out the first quote on this slide the world is on fire literally and figuratively and we are faced with the key question of who can put out these kinds of fires in this kind of world at the moment this world is one facing geoeconomic competition geostrategic tensions and geopolitical fragmentation and yet at the same time we know that the challenges of reaching net zero of transitioning our energy systems and of reducing inequalities requires international cooperation the question is will this year be a year where we are reinventing multilateralism whether are we replacing it or are we seeing a proliferation of other forums where multilateralism is so constrained that we see other forms of perhaps pragmatic pluralism taking over the evidence is that our efforts through multilateral or institutions and agreements have not succeeded yet we see conflict but we also know that the sdgs are off target and that inequalities are increasing that we're not really on track for that paris agreement climate change nonetheless even the head of the united nations environment program has identified some silver linings in this multilateral ecosystem she points to the fact that there are multilateral environmental agreements that are making progress that there's a renewal of our efforts to deal with dangerous chemicals that the conventional biological diversity is making real headway in protecting the environment and of course we have finally a plus global plastics pollution treaty that is being discussed so it's not as though we're completely locked in to this fragmentation and conflict but patchy implementation is making things far more difficult and is increasing the lack of trust between the parties who need to be working together to put out the fires and after all it is now 80 years almost 80 years since the end of the second world war which led to the united nations but by all yardsticks the world has been remade since then just to give you one extraordinary statistic at that time 80 countries that are now independent were then colonies let alone all of the progress in terms of economic development in access to technologies as well as just basic services but it's clear that institutions have not kept up kept up they're seeing rather by some certainly as propping up the established order there are all sorts of things out there that are trying to grasp this the bridgetown initiative is looking at finance and financial institutions and how they can make sure that people can the poorer countries have access to capital so that cost of capital isn't a the sort of barrier to transitions and development that it currently is we also see some interesting developments in terms of plurilateral gathering such as the bricks constellation now expanding this year and it'll be so interesting to see how this year that constellation of countries begins to influence the direction of multilateralism and pragmatic pluralism the elections that are taking place this year are a big backdrop to all of this as well. Taiwan we've already been through but India is in April Indonesia the European Parliament the United States last of all perhaps this year how much will those elections affect this agenda how much will they be expressions of green lash and lastly I'll leave you with the summit of the future the United Nations Secretary General's effort to try and bring together these world actors world leaders to discuss the future of multilateralism but also how we work collectively collaboratively cooperatively to deal with the fires that rage in the world today thank you so much for listening to this summary of our three currents you'll find all of them now on SEI's website with plenty more detail and examples and I want to give a huge thanks to the team that has put together these currents in the form that you can read them on our website and that is Karen, Lindsay and Ulurika a huge thank you to you and now I can introduce our keynote speaker who will set the scene for our panel discussion and we're extremely honoured to be able to introduce you to our newest board member at SEI but also the former president of Estonia Kersti Kallilide. Dear crowd of Stockholm Environment Institute, hey SEI I'm very happy to turn to you as the fresh board member of SEI from Tallinn. I'm making this video moments after President Zelenski made his speech in Estonian Parliament and his plane is now taking off towards Riga and that is maybe the first thing I wanted to mention which concerns 2024 is the difficulty of finding the right balance between job politics and protection of our climate and nature of course job politics is on our all minds we all think about security and safety therefore it is very easy to forget that there is a bigger fight even bigger fight going on because it doesn't seem to be so urgent to many people but of course we all know it is Europe had its warmest year last year and the perspective is looking pretty bad people are even talking about the temperature rises of three degrees by the end of the century which of course is not acceptable even in the climates and countries which are least affected by the climate change Estonia by the way while ranking among the countries which is least impacted by the climate change is at the same time one of the countries where temperature is changing the fastest and the unpredictability which this is causing is extremely hard for us to tolerate it means storms snow storms cuts of electricity far more often than we are used to so we have to become more resilient even industrially to the climate change now of course if people had listened what had been said since 1960s then we would not have been here but oh yeah in a way of course humankind is at the turning point i noticed this year at the cop in dubai we're placed to have a cop but nevertheless i noticed that the countries which are consumers of imported energy were quite self-confident and the producers of fossil fuels they were far more worried which means that we are reaching the point where new technologies allowing us to use clean energy are now becoming more competitive than fossil fuels are yes of course we still have to resolve the issue of storage and what i really wish for europe for 2024 is that amy the elections amy the new commission taking post in in brussels somehow somewhere we would have a time to settle the european storage market because without that it is very difficult to predict that wind and solar energy on which we plan to rely will be really energy sources which our citizens will trust here in estonia it is right now the biggest debate go nuclear or trust into wind and storage we urgently need a storage market for our energy revamp here what is of course good news for climate issues is that the geopolitical and climate problems work in the same direction at least in europe because if europe wants to become energy independent then of course that means sustainable energy simply because energy does not have fossil alternatives in europe we are not rich in fossil fuels and where we have them for example in netherlands thinking of fracking we do not want to use them there is a little catch of course in all of this and this relates to the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem protection versus climate protection how at the same time we are trying to become more self-sustainable in energy sector we are also looking for ways and means to be more self-sustainable on rare earths and other minerals which europe traditionally has imported but maybe it is not such a bad thing if europe with its careful eye on biodiversity and ecosystem protection will also develop and find the ways on how to mine without ruin this is something which i hope also in 2024 we will see clearly at the forefront of our climate and biodiversity discussion this for me is a risk which i hope will turn into an opportunity europe also continues its independent development of industrial policy europe has been traditionally very much free market oriented and i sincerely hope that it remains this way even if i would say that right now in europe all various issues starting from climate relating also to independence etc are actually looking towards more protectionism than more truly market-based solutions and here i really hope that the beer drinking nations of the european union those around the Baltic sea will stick together to stand for free market-based solutions why because we are the small open economies and big subsidies be it in energy or other industrial sectors in central europe these will be a serious real problem for us so i hope that in 2024 we do all stick together again in european elections again in our statements towards the new european commission that we stand for free market development of new technologies yes we need to create our green bubble we need to make sure that europe as a whole has an industrial policy but it should always be Brussels-based europe as a whole similarly to agricultural subsidies they only allowed from european budget if we want an industrial policy and energy policy the subsidies to be neutral among european member states they all have to be only brussels-based starting from european budget and national subsidies should not be so so big as to ruin the common market altogether this is a risk but if we are very clear in what we want Nordic countries Baltic countries i am quite sure that we will be able to save the common market otherwise yes the need for to fight climate change the need to be industrial independent for europe will trump our needs to have a free market economy in europe and finally what i also have noticed for a couple of years which gives us all hope is that even if leaders and presidents and prime ministers came together and said we do not mind fossil fuel usage anymore the big multinational companies including the swedish companies have set sail they've started spending down the road spending to become climate neutral to be clean in the nearest future because they've all realized the first ones who get there will win and the last ones will always pay this makes me the most hopeful that the private sector actually has turned the corner therefore for 2024 while we have many challenges i do hope that seriously we will feel better off by the end of 2024 not only in job politics where i also hope nothing will massively go wrong but also in fight against climate change thank you for listening well thank you very much president Kallilade for those opening remarks that i think really set the scene and with that i'm going to pass over to our fantastic moderator who will introduce the panel over to you Chloe please to be here today and with such a fantastic eminent panel of speakers to to look at the trends and these currents that could shape 2024 before i introduce the panelists i just wanted to remind everybody that there is a Q&A function and if you can if you have questions along the discussions just pop your questions in that Q&A box any interesting questions might be actually passed on to me during the conversation so i might actually throw in some questions from the from the audience during our discussion with the panel as well and there will be some more time at the end to take your questions so put them in there and we'll moderate them and get to them at the end of this discussion now let's get to our fantastic panel we're extremely lucky to have these four speakers with us today so first is Cher Emble he's a research professor and director-general of the centre of the Suivi Ecology in Senegal and he was he has previously worked as director of future Africa at the University of Pretoria the executive director of star international Washington DC and he has served as a lead scientist on climate change at the world agro advisory center in Kenya he's also a leader on the agriculture of forestry in other land use chapters of the IPCC AR5 and AR6 reports and so his research spans food security sustainable production Africa and natural resource management next we've got Eileen O'Connor and she is the senior vice president for communications policy and advocacy at the Rockefeller Foundation and she's a member of the executive team which oversees government relations and strategic communications for all programs including on climate strategy she's had an eminent career as a journalist and attorney specializing in complex litigations and crisis management in US, Russia and Ukraine which is particularly relevant today and she served as vice president of Yale University and as a deputy assistant secretary of state in the Obama administration thank you for being with us today Eileen we're very grateful and next we've got Pedro from Mitag he's the deputy director for external relations and G20 experts at the Brazilian Center for International Relations which is also known as SEBRI and Brazil holds the rotating presidency of the G20 this year and the summit will be held in July so we're really great to have you expertise and insight Pedro I'm sure there will be relevance in our discussion and Pedro's trade as a lawyer and has taught courses on sustainable development and international law and international trade and finally we're very lucky we've got also Inessa Umehosa Grace with us today she's a self-described eco feminist she's a climate activist and researcher from Rwanda and she's the co-founder and global coordinator of the loss and damage youth coalition which counts more than 900 youths across 70 plus countries and and she's also the founder of the NGO green protector which aims to increase youth participation in climate action climate education and climate policy so thank you all very very much for for joining today it's fantastic to have such a range of of expertise with us and and I would like to start with some reflections perhaps from the former president of Estonia as the keynote speech she mentioned you know quite poignantly that Estonia is one of these countries is impacted by climate change and yet it's seeing some of the fastest changing temperatures creating unpredictability both in terms of policy but also in terms of the need for resilience and this comes on the back I think of the UNEP emissions gap report you know the world is barreling towards 2.5 to 2.9 degrees of warming and if we implement the national determined contributions under the Paris agreement fully and and Antonio Gutierrez the Secretary General of the UN has described this as an emissions canyon so this year clearly we need exponential climate action in order to get on track and I wanted to start with this to set the scene really to ask you first all of you what are your reflection on these currents and what we've just heard both from the presentation that Rob give but also from the European perspective from Estonia which of these issues do you think are you are the most concerned about and how can you start addressing these challenges this year at the particular things that you will be looking out for so maybe Eileen maybe we could start with you if you have a two kind of opening remarks as to where you think you know your your your eyes have really set on this year thank you so much Chloe and thank you as well for having us for having me and the Rockefeller Foundation able to to participate in this very important conversation I would say that the I think the president pointed out a lot of positives and negatives but I would also argue that even with the positives they can go one way or another and so I think the currents you know and that's what the Rockefeller Foundation is really focused in on we actually see and I'm going to say something kind of that's very counter intuitive we see climate as an opportunity but only if we actually address it in ways that completely transform systems and if we do that in the right way we can actually counter and reverse the inequality that in our view is actually driving this anti-democracy or this move away from democratic institutions and democratic governments because basically people are moving away from democracies pluralism multinationalism because they feel that that hasn't worked for them as individuals we've seen rising inequality around the world between countries and within countries particularly in the United States that is what is driving the politics here so there's has to be some democratic reforms in this country we have to do things like stop gerrymandering get more money out of politics things like that but put that aside I think the key here when you look at all three of these currencies is how do you address these things without actually making them almost a negative so the 1.5 degree and we are let's face it we all know we're going to go beyond that because that's in the rear view window but it is driving as the president pointed out businesses and others because they know that the risk that's coming at them is going to put all of their investments out of possibly literally underwater and so we keep arguing with them that they have to do more to invest in energy transitions particularly in the developing world and that is where I would also argue this access to capital the Bridgetown initiative which the Rockefeller Foundation is is very very involved with and has been actually helping with fund the research behind that for years we believe that that is really really critical as you know yes it's true that Europe and the global north have reduced have transitioned to renewable energy but the global south has not and they are unable because the investment and the money is not there to do it so I do think that this 1.5 is actually catalyzing potentially these movements with the IMF and the World Bank to fund more of that because we also believe and this goes to my earlier point if we can actually transform and renew and switch to renewables the positive about renewables is that we can expand energy access beyond the grids that currently exist there are 1.7 billion people without productive energy in the world if we can give them productive energy that can really boost their economic standards and their opportunity so that's one area in terms of a competition for space I would also argue it really is about land but again this is where some of these forces within existing systems which is why we talk about transforming systems are actually pushing back we need to transform the food system 85% of the non-farmed arable land in the world is in Africa so we're working on trying to actually energize local agriculture and using regenerative techniques in that agriculture which actually can not only combat climate change but can also enable many more people to actually have much more of an agrarian economy and be food secure and so just like with energy transition we can be energy secure and so finally too I want to just talk about technology because that was a very good point and I on farming and food and the food system and I thought I might just can you hear me okay because everybody seems to be pointing at me okay brilliant and I would like to ask Shay actually if you could like bounce back on what Eileen has said and we'll come back to technology for sure but what do you think really stands out from these from these quat from these currents and you know is there something around a food particularly that Eileen has mentioned or the opportunity of renewable energy and getting the capital right that you would like to respond to I think you're muted sorry thank you chair and thank you for to my predecessor for the very insightful ideas there's several prongs in in this issue of food security and climate change as regards to Africa we all know that global warming will have a severe toll on the food production in Africa in many ways you can break it down in terms of drought in terms of pest and diseases in terms of adaptive seeds in germoplasts many many many many water resource shortages in addressing food security in Africa but in the same way we also as we come from Dubai was pushing to see where you know multilateralism can play a role to fix these issues because we all know that climate change is radically and drastically related to air pollution in Europe and developed countries which is having more than 95 percent of the whole greenhouse gas emission globally and the less than 4 percent that Africa is putting in place is mostly driven by maybe two big economies um Egypt and South Africa and the rest of the country is down to 2 percent and if you see on the flip side how much Africa is contributing to many of the solutions in climate change particularly mitigation the forests of Congo the agroforest system and the savannah ecosystem including mangroves on the coastal areas are really capturing and our oceans are capturing a great deal of air pollution globally so personally I don't believe that Africa is a net emitter it becomes a net sink when you put the whole budget into the table so the fact of putting everybody in the same responsibility in climate change in relation to food security should be just reverse in revised and second the issue of you know putting the political space principle into the table to create the resources to help poor communities to adapt to climate change has been a lip service through the negotiation for many times and we put loss and damage I will let Ines I talk about loss and damage but I want to say is we accredited Saint Lucifer ecology is accredited by Green Climate Fund at the adaptation fund recently there is a you know a window for adaptation in the African Development Bank in GCA but getting one million dollar from those processes will take you four years of negotiating the knowledge in the proposal and making sure you are at the standard of institutional requirement to mobilize those funding so basically they calibrate the accessibility to the result of the resources they calibrated against the standards of international organization which obviously local organization in Africa or communities while suffering of climate change would not have easily and we will depend of international consultant again and again and the process will be long to take but imagine that everything we are talking about require quick fix emergency urgencies and you have to wait for four five years before you get your adaptation project or lesson damage project I think there is something in the trends that need to be revised twice the second point which I want to make is the issue of what we hear and what we feel what we hear is the voluntary engagement of developed countries to reduce emission what we feel is a big momentum towards fossil fuel UK has released their licenses Germany China they are all going to to to to to charcoal there is a new conflict in Latin America between Nicaragua et cetera just because of fossil fuel west Africa coastline people are working on fossil fuel there are two readings that I have on that first of all when we find fossil fuel everybody is interested including those one who are sinking pollution is not good for the atmosphere but and second thing and coming from dubai I'm good in place to tell you many developing countries they have been looking for the investment capital to unlock their development potential and that investment capital never came from the world bank or IMF so what they rely on is natural resources gold fossil fuel minerals rare earth and when they have those things it's a unique opportunity for them to build the dollar sign that goes with the infrastructure that they need to move forward because the the process of lending that money from the international market with unprecedented rate of return for those who are lending this money has been strangulating Africa for many years so we have to look this just transition issues how to invest on intact resources in Africa because we have so many potential under climate change to gain food security by improving and optimizing water resource use using using the right seat at the right place and making sure that the forgotten habits and plants are used and just to finish on that issues of forgotten products Africa is more than the five crop weeds that are reported globally for food security by FAO we have more over 100 spaces highly nutritious fruits grains you know nutrition rich plants that need to be promoted and they are resistant to the context of climate change because they adapted to drought in many ways but those things need to find ways to go through the agricultural or agronomic policy in Africa so it's a package of solutions I'm optimistic more than pessimistic because the potential is there we just need to unshackle it over to you sure sure and thank you thank you for those remarks I would like to bounce off that and go to Pedro I think we've heard quite clearly the the opportunity that can be there whether that's you know with renewable energy resources but also on land and farming and the biodiversity that's the that's then the carbon sink of Africa for example the chef is just mentioning but the G20 this year is going to be key to address some of these issues around fossil fuels around finance so how do you see you know what are the most important of these currents for you how do you see them fit again the Brazilian presidency of the of the G20 and what are you specifically looking out for this year that could shift the needle maybe on finance or on delivering that fossil fuel transition which the world is committed to at COP28 in Dubai thank you for such an interesting question you know the first thing I would say is that when I was reading the currents that you guys put together the the the discussion that you guys framed in terms of land use actually the discussion about the one and a half centigrade threshold you know this year of 2023 and I think it's going to be the same in 2024 from a Brazilian perspective maybe in the future we're going to call it you know the year when climate changed for real you know so many extreme weather events took place within a very short time frame I'm not going to you know name everything that happened but we within the Brazilian territory for instance we had you know severe droughts in the Amazon including the Amazon river but at the same time in the southern most part of our territory very severe floods in two of our largest cities Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro where I'm speaking from historical extreme heat events we had people dying for the first time to be honest because of a an episode of extreme heat in the city of Rio de Janeiro and I can think about other examples in here in our neighbor Argentina also suffered a lot especially in terms of their agricultural output because of another crisis of drought so unfortunately I think that's going to be a trend and a current within the next two years I mean like Eileen said you know she had the courage to mention I'm I'm still not comfortable admitting that but let's just all face it one and a half degrees is it's just behind us right and I think it's going to be one of the setting topics agenda setting topics for the G20 you know is it important for the world to discuss the decarbonization of our energy mix yes absolutely but let's let's just please keep in mind that certain countries have different challenges and opportunities so I'm going to go back to the example of Brazil and this is a particular frame that we're going to go about in our effort to go about the G20 so the case of Brazil when it comes to our energy mix is a very particular one because if you look at if you look at the mix you'll notice that a great part of the energy we consume and produce is already renewable so if you look at the cars and the whole transportation system in Brazil so much of it is actually dependent on biofuel right ethanol in particular and when it comes to electricity so much of it proportionally is also dependent on hydroelectric dams that doesn't mean that we still we don't have any homework to do on that front but it is fair to say that if it was just a matter of you know energy um Brazil would already be the greenest G20 countries that's this is something that I've always make an effort to remind people about and that speaks so I was going to say so looking forward to the G20 and to 2024 are there things that you think that position around Brazil's energy mix for example what does that mean in terms of what it can how we can drive the conversation forward particularly on on that particular you know transition discussion are there I think that means like what does the Brazilian G20 presidency has of specific that it can bring this year when we think about you know both transition of fossil fuels and the just energy transition which means financing which as we've heard isn't available at the scale and speed needed for developing countries yeah so if you look at the priorities that the Brazilian government has set for the G20 there are three of them and one is like you mentioned pretty much in those terms just energy transition um we countries like Brazil and I think that's the case of other emerging countries in South America for instance uh there's Eileen mentioned I couldn't agree more that you know the climate change is also an opportunity and for countries like Brazil and other countries in South America that's one particularly interesting way of framing the issue especially in the context of the G20 which is out to roll a discussion about the global economy what do I mean by that if you look at some of the you know most underprivileged regions in Brazil that's precisely where a great deal of international investment is being made towards a solar energy plants you know in the short and medium term this is also going to be the case for uh on and offshore wind uh energy so in Brazil and you know I think that's the case of other uh African South Asian countries uh South American countries of course if these countries are able to take the opportunity and also the challenge of climate change and the energy transition to you know uh modernize their industrial agenda and in the process create jobs and then help foster development in certain regions of their countries that still need help that's that's the way we should go about it I'm just I'm just pointing out the particular aspect of the energy role in the Brazilian decarbonization agenda because um when it comes to my country our problem is much more related to land use right um we have a very serious problem with this deforestation and you guys mentioned it in one of the uh one of the currents the the one about the spatial I found it amazing title by the way the space race um the issue of land use uh and the way the Brazilian Congress has recently uh you know made the wrong decision in my opinion to deconstruct some of the protections against indigenous peoples lands so that's particularly problematic but I would say that you know given that this is the number one priority when it comes to our decarbonization agenda the new government has indeed been able to dramatically decrease the level of illegal deforestation there's still homework to be done but um we are we are we're going on the right path great let's um let's come back to land in a second because um and try and keep the answers a bit shorter otherwise we'll struggle to get through all the themes but in a second I'd like to come to you I think there's been um you know both Aideen and Pedro have uh raised this around you know basically we're likely to pass 1.5 is probably gone you know that's we're likely to to overshoot the 1.5 degree goal target that has as uh Pedro said has been quite sensitive um think to say what do you make of that do you think um we should start having a conversation about um uh overshooting 1.5 and how do we reduce the risks associated with that um how do you see that also linking to your work on loss and damage how do we take that conversation forward in your opinion in 2020 hi hi can you hear me I think I was having a bit of an internet uh okay uh nice um thank you um can you hear me yes uh you seem to freeze a bit perhaps if you turn off the video yes um that's easier Inessa okay I think we have lost Inessa um okay maybe Chef uh maybe you can take on that that question I think uh you know Aideen made that um strong remark uh which Pedro said you agreed with uh but um realized that um there was a sensitive issue uh around this but you know should the world start a conversation about the risks associated with overshooting the 1.5 degree goal and how we manage those risks um you know should should should we go there yeah I can Inessa but yeah Inessa please sorry Inessa first and then Chef maybe you could answer yes go for it Inessa yeah thanks thanks for Apple for the internet uh but I'll just try to be quick so for me I think it's two ways to see um so again I am one of the people who are really really optimistic in my whole life so whenever we're talking about overshooting starting their language I'm like why but we can still save the 1.5 uh because we all know what's really takes to really keep the 1.5 0.5 alive although we are not comfortable to really um understand fully on how we have to go there in a short time because it's going to require all of us to change our way of thinking and a way of doing our business as usual so when um you were sharing about uh the three currents that you are having I was I was like if you add on one on finance like a proper finance accessible finance then that will make the full cycle especially for the generation of mine and when you look on African context um everything is relying on how each continent is going to be able to be a deal maker and when you look on how this process is going to look like Africa is able to change the face of the whole the world from Eileen if we see climate changes and opportunity but for that it has to be fully integrated in all the plans of economic development or the justice that we're talking about because currently the reason why we are all frustrated the reason why we are tend to be a little bit pessimistic is because we have what did go wrong in the past and I feel like we are also able to change and that's why for example we need to acknowledge the role that Africa okay and Inessa we seem to have to say we like to uh we say sorry again you're breaking up a little bit but I think uh I think we understand that point very clearly really important that we we need to be able to integrate climate action climate protection nature protection into everything we do into core economic and political strategies and share how I would just like to come back to you on that one point five point what do you think about this discussion over overshoot and is this a conversation that we need to start having um and and and and if so do we what kind of what do we do with your engineering what do we do with governance what do we do with other forms of technology maybe like CDR how do you think that conversation will evolve evolve this year and what are the important messages for you um to get across oh yeah thank you for the question I think Inessa was making good points that um the the possibility to to to have big wins on the one point five those opportunities still exist and I agree with the rhetoric of being positive because if you see something as just a problem you will never find a solution and we have been as humankind um pushing for the very hard solutions in the past to combat ozone layer to to to make sure that overfishing is reduced and now plastic is on the pitch and air pollution in big cities if China managed the to to to deep root um some of the big cities that some that's a potential of leapfrogging and accelerating transformation in that very sense but there is the optimism on one side and the realism in the other side my realism brings me to check the global stock take report which is the midway report from barris agreement to 2020-30 so what we see is that the the ambition of reducing greenhouse gas by 43 percent to achieve 1.5 percent that ambition has not been put towards even 10 percent so we have a huge gap in mitigation which is not yet ready in any NDC or any political or climate policy across the globe and we all know that the six years remaining to 2030 would be an illusion for the humanity to go from this 10 percent to 43 percent of emission reduction so but the fact of being on track and moving towards 1.5 degree would probably lead us to somewhere which is much better from where we are right now and my optimism is to be to that point even if it's a short if it's a midway towards our ambition it would be important not to completely you know discourage ourselves and keep going on that very pace and in there's in there in that space what I think is many things that we need to combat one thing is the power relationship when it comes to to combating air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions what I mean by that is when we negotiate as government on climate change the private sector who is the main polluter are not asked to play any big role in in this by like militarism process now it's catching up the private fund is put in place in Dubai the mayors of cities are now being organized and these non-heard voices even concluding including the community who are planting trees in the daily basis that unheard voices who are not participating in the negotiation but who implement the climate policy in the daily basis needs to have better place into the discussion that we are having right now so what I'm urging SIE to do in terms of advocacy is to take those game changers those agents for change which are not the traditional state and government negotiators to be playing a big role into accelerating this process and the potential of having tapping into those communities are absolutely critical and very high and last but not least when you look at the structure of NDCs most NDCs particularly in Africa are based on natural resource processes agroforestry soil management etc and the problem we have in unlocking that potential is the conditional requirement in most of those I NDC maybe 80% of the NDCs in Africa are conditional they need technical capacity they need financial resources they need technical support from the north but those support system that needs to be put in place have never been there so I'm talking for the Africa context where the NDCs will only be successful when the prerequisite which are the conditional requirement are put in place which is not yet the case and last but not least how do we characterize and UNISA can come that loss and damage what is the semantical meaning of something which is called loss and damage what's the cultural dimension of it how do we assess the magnitude of loss and damage and put a dollar sign on it in order to mobilize the funding which is now the new window open at the world bank so there are many issues that we need to accelerate in terms of the international governance structure if we want to achieve 1.5 but to be honest with you I am losing totally hope of achieving it by 2030 but let's keep going let's keep our pace we will lead so we will go somewhere which is quite interesting to be and to redescribe my change in fact over to you thank you for those reflections and Eileen back to you on this 1.5 question you know you you expressed quite clearly at the beginning reports that you know 1.5 was was gone without the overshoot what do we do with that do you think that that has the potential to spur some more action do you think there's that risk of the doom loop which was outlined in the currents and and and how do we see technology being part of that I think one of the questions from the audience was asking about you know how do we implement correctly appropriately efficiently a carbon dioxide removal for example what are your what is your sense well there's some yeah okay so first of all in the 1.5 I I think I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer so to say in the United States I'm not trying to sound negative that we lose sight of what's possible but I am trying to say that actually I do think it can spur spur action and I think it's spurring action in the business community and shake you are absolutely right it is private investment that must must come to the table and so that is why we have been working on carbon market initiatives both with secretary Kerry and the energy transition accelerator so that countries can actually give carbon credits for energy transition projects because the amount of money that we're putting in and we're working in over a dozen countries in Africa and Southeast Asia and and the problem that we have to go into 2030 is and and you're also absolutely right climate the how we address climate change has to be linked to development the investment in climate change must be an investment in development and the problem is is that all of these models about emissions don't take into account the need for additional energy for countries to develop and so the emissions out of that need and and obviously if they don't have alternatives they're going to go to coal or they're going to go to diesel I mean and so that is exactly what we understand and accept and so that's also one of the one of the other points you've made shake is that we've also been investing in things like the school of Africa regulation which we're trying to actually build up capacity on what regulations what are the the conditions that are needed for say transitions to adjust transition by the way like worker training etc energy transitions and even food system transitions like you've talked about there's so much opportunity in Africa on agriculture and and so anyway in terms of your question on technology so we get a lot from a lot of big players in this space and I won't name them but they're technologists and they say just wait you know what you guys are all talking about you know development and and that's that shouldn't be your focus your focus should be technology technology technology and technology will fix this but we don't believe the technology alone unless it's pointed in the right direction unless it is actually accessible and affordable to developing countries we've seen this with vaccines if the IP laws and you know if if we don't enable African universities and African research centers and Asian research centers to develop this technology and own this technology then we're not going to get to where we need to be both with climate and with development that's one of the reasons that we've been investing in a battery electric storage system initiative where to your point about storage it's so critical but the problem is for purchasers of any kind of technology in Africa the amount in the quantity is so low the prices are very high they also have that access to capital issue so we've built a consortium to try to drive down those costs and figure out how can we basically do pools procurement and and possibly even for for the Rockefeller Foundation how can we invest in looking for less expensive technologies that would work we're also looking at how do we really maximize grid technology and the efficiency of grids because that too will actually improve the storage systems so we've been working with Google X for example to kind of bring some of that technology into Africa so technology is great but I do think some technology is better than other the carbon capture system that everyone that oil and gas really hypes up and they hyped it up a lot at COP obviously that technology requires a ton of of water and other natural resources and it's very expensive and it's not that effective so instead of talking about how do we keep ourselves connected to oil and gas why are we not investing and talking more about the alternative fuels and the reason is because the system needs transformation and not just tinkering around the edges and that's what we really feel I mean and in terms of nuclear we see nuclear as part of the mix I mean we don't actually see that you know let's go for as safe as possible clean as possible nuclear so I think that's really the the you know that's where we think about technology hope I didn't go on too long no thank you thank you Eileen for that and this let's go back to you hopefully your internet is a bit more stable and on those points I mean we've heard around the opportunity that there is in developing countries in Africa around around land I mean there's the issue of trade-off but there's also this opportunity and oops Inessa are you still here yes if you can still hear me Inessa I was going to ask you another question that just popped up popped up from one of our listeners and how do you think based on Eileen has just said how do you think African industrializations can avoid locking in greenhouse gas emissions what do you see as way forwards or discussions that the continent needs to have this year maybe on the back of the African climate summit that took place in September which very much presented the responding to climate crisis also as an opportunity how do you see that maybe that discussion evolving this year I think I think for me the answer would go back to local innovation and local centers in this sector because for a long time we've been this kind of understanding that there's no innovation in Africa there's no expert in Africa but I think going back to what Eileen said sorry if I'm kidding your name just to empower the local university local researchers to be able to design the solution in our own context because for a long time we've been adopting solution and program out of criterias and triggering points that are not really affecting our national circumstance so if we are able to enable our researchers and be able to boost the the innovation drive especially for the young people currently because now young people are more interested in innovation and if also able to really touch the languages that our policy which is again like access to the renewable access energy or the fund which really turns it in really understanding that when Africa is calling for maybe an access of funds within the water bank on the grand bays on the high concession loan it's not like we are begging it's just technically we we've been accessing this fund paying the devs but now we're aware of out of not really doing the thing for for community and for our continent and now changing the cluster for us actually demanding something in the proper format in the proper more modality that is able to address our current problem but also able to tackle the international problem is one is one of the way to see it and coming to the question that I think shake a mention about how do we damage for example how do you can how can you put a cost for me I think I can use a simple example in May last year in just only three nights with the intensive front for our country lost 1% of GDP in just three nights and when you look on the amount of things that would that would destroy it yes we have people who died but we have roads and infrastructure but you cannot people's life or livestock those are labeled as non-economic impact impact of loss and damage but when we were talking about infrastructures roads those are economy there's some of the example of the economic impact of loss and damage and then when you look on how our country is going to be able to bridge back after those those events we do not have any funds or anything that is that we are losing for example a road that was brought bridge out of a lawn from the World Bank but then we are not responsible of these being destroyed so because of climate change then we need something that is much more justified move away in the justice way for us to get access of the fund to be able to to re-bridge back faster for the community because we are losing our development so that is that is that is how things are and they the really thing that really kind of make me sad is that you go in the room and people are asking you can you prove to us that you're actually dying um that this loss and damage real is coming to a crisis happening and where where the solution and yet you are coming from you know the reality and the people stand not truly stand and then going back to empowering our local research institution and people and and leaders to be able to speak from facts because I think for for a certain point of time we get went to really having this assumption that when people are talking about climate justice, climate advocacy, reaching 1.5 alive, 1.5 alive or restoration of the natural people tend to think that we are speaking from an emotional basis but yes it's emotional because it's kind of a day right reality but it's also being backed up with the scientific with these facts there's a different experience of the people in the community so maybe maybe closing that cycle in a way that at least people are able to understand that yes climate climate is an opportunity but only if we are hopeful and opening our eyes strong enough to really see it because otherwise we are losing the we are losing the opportunity window and the current generation a kind of thing is the one that is holding that kind of a scotch between those two like going chaotic or going hopefully and it's very also a very unfortunate to see that's in some rooms there's no really participation of young people there's no youth there's no women there's no children and yet we are the one promising them to have a future a better future but they're not somewhere to be found in terms of expressing their concern and their solution as well because they're also spreading solution at home. Yeah I think that's a strong message for any policymakers or anybody who's going to be holding events and summits this year that you know the young people need to be in in those rooms they are the ones that are going to be impacted the most by the warming of the planet. Pedro I'd like to come back to you because we just started to discuss land and I know this is a vast topic and we only have a few minutes per issue really but can you speak a little bit about that? I think we heard from the former Estonian president of this risk of trade-off between climate protection and nature protection you know this competition for land and access and resources is really really cranking up this year and has been. How do you see how do we address this trade-off? How do you see this conversation evolving and what what could be solutions to maybe address that in the year to you know this year maybe if you can be very brief that would be brilliant. Yeah I think you know I like the way you guys framed the current because you managed to speak about different contexts in which land has become an issue I mean in the particular case of a country like Brazil like I said the the the trouble that we have in our decarbonization strategy is so much more related to illegal deforestation in all of our biomes but in particular the Amazon and at the heart of this problem is you know the you know lack of resources or the defunding of environmental law enforcement policy and a problem that was you know created in the particular administration of the Brazilian government and now the government is new the administration is new and just by you know leveling up a little bit of you know the bare minimum to to enforce environmental law deforestation has been able to be start to be addressed. I also enjoyed the way the real estate and the attention that you guys paid to the issue of the blue economy and how we're going to think about the sustainable resource management of the oceans you know. I don't think that's something that we get we pay enough attention to if you look at the international policy conversation and so I want to compliment you guys on that. When it comes to our the the contribution that Brazil and in particular Sebre can deliver on that we're going to pay a lot of attention to that in the way we frame the G20 debates. So one of the task forces of T20 which is the engagement group group of think tanks task force number two will be particularly devoted to that and the particular problem of deforestation but also at Sebre we're starting a new project that focuses on the you know different options that a country like Brazil has when it comes to harnessing the potential for its for the oceans and for its sea territory. So that will be my you know my general my general point yeah. Brilliant thank you for keeping that short as well. I mean there's we've spoken about lots of different things and all of these topics and currents are completely intertwined but I would like to ask all of you about how do you see multilateralism and you know multilateral institutions are clearly facing the tests this year I mean they have been we've got the super year of election and a major test for democracy across the world you know how how is the reform of the international order and the multilateral system really going to help us deliver you know accelerated climate action stepped up nature protection and the sustainable development that you know that the world needs and so many people very very desperately need where do you see that you know reform to the crux of the system and maybe what are you looking out for specifically on that this year chef do you want to do you want to start maybe just be try and be fairly brief and we'll go around very briefly and and and quick thank you for the question but first of all I think the homework that those multilateral organizations are asking us to do which is integrated approach to combine you know thinking as we are doing now with a transdisciplinary approach they're not doing that at the level the World Trade Organization is not talking to the UNF triple seal and the convention of biodiversity is not talking to the desertification convention and I think there will be there is a need of a place where those multilateral big building blocks needs to meet to create cohesion again you know between themselves when it comes to achieving sustainability in many places the second thing I think we are they're not looking at enough is the bottom-up approach that Inezha was mentioning after you finish an APCC report how do you you know break it down to the reality of Njala of Senegal of Kaffir in in different localities with the right language which speaks to the reality of the context with addressing the right problems and creating this bottom-up approach this Ascendant approach that help resolve problem as as as a as a local level that's one dimension second dimension which is the last point which I want to make is related to Africa how do we create jobs for the increasing demography in the use coming in the potential is there and by the way talking about the potential my colleague from Rockefeller Elaine mentioned that 60 percent of the arable land is in Africa I would challenge you Elaine to show me where those lands are because this Montpellier this Montpellier report is telling it but at the same time leaving the reality in Africa I'm looking for those arable land which are not untapped in Africa so we need some kind of rebuilding the linkage between the the global rhetoric and the local reality and this bottom-up approach is something required thank you over to you super and a challenge there for anybody who can show chef where that 60 percent comes from Aileen back to you what do you think about that reforming the multilateral system where the not what are the nods that you're particularly looking for this year well I think shakes that just basically said it really well the multinational system is way too siloed and one of the things we've been working on in food security is linking the the multinational system that's in humanitarian assistance on food security with those institutions that are that are focused on agricultural development we spend a lot of time on on on the crisis management that's not linked and that's not money that goes into actually fixing the problem and so we believe those things have to come together we've been working on the SDGs you know for a while the 17 rooms conversation but again it we really need to as shake said get more granular for each country and he's absolutely right a lot of these statistics a lot of these things don't really they're sort of generalized and they don't necessarily spell out exactly you know point by point which are the problems so that sounds like I'm just reversing what I said but I'm you know basically we have to put develop money for development and money for crisis together in the multinational system and and kind of stop trying to just plug holes and start trying to fix the problems I also do think that we have to really bring business into the conversation I mean in our view unfortunately business is actually overtaken in many systems you know the they sort of are the more driving force versus government in many things for good and for bad so how can we harness the power of business and private investment for good sure sorry because we're really running out of time and I want to to leave in this briefly you know that you know crisis money development money and again said I need to be together in sort of two set sentences what's your view on that yeah thanks I would try to be as brief as possible I think towards shake and I mean say it and I think for me to be a redefined global solidarity because currently all the process that we're trying to fix not fixing the whole like fixing the problem is to also go back to know what's at the foundation we are standing on because now we are pretty sure that is the foundation we're standing on we're not as inclusive as possible and are not as engaging as possible so that's that's why we need to redefine global solidarity that we can all take concrete action so that would be as perfect as I can be thank brilliant Pedro that seems like you know in line for the G20 redefining global solidarity what do you make of that in this year going forward yes that's one of the three topics that the government has elected as a priority and we are focusing on that even though we're not government affiliated of course we're also focusing on that you know just the fact that the member states that are currently at the UN 80% of them were colonies back when the institution was founded that piece of information alone should be enough for us to pretty much you know end the discussion whether or not we should reform multilateralism but if we want to talk about solutions I would suggest two particular pathways one in terms of geography so there needs to be more power more vote more voice given to Southeast Asia Asia at large not to mention Africa I think that goes without saying I would also this is something we're going to focus on I would also mention that an improvement in terms of topics and you guys wrote also about that in the document you guys wrote I mean no one could think of AI regulation and whether or not that was a international topic back in San Francisco in 1945 right you know all the topics associated to technology and I'm sorry Pedro we're actually really out of time so much to discuss in so little time we do want to leave the final word to man's of SEI thank you so much panelists for your contribution and I'm sure the conversation is just getting started over to you thanks thank you very much thank you all panelists Shade, Enesa, Eileen, Pedro been great to listen to you thank you Chloe for your moderation and Rob for the currents like multilateralism is fragmented and under pressure the harsh reality of 1.5 degree overshoot conflict and competition over space and land these are actually changing and are shaping our priorities at SEI up to 2030 for example I'll give you a very short taste of this we will be focusing less on goal setting agenda setting intentions and aspirations and more on actions on the ground and implementation supporting action researching how to do implementation and researching for supporting implementation when it comes to land research programs will be launched related to materials mining land food systems change how to promote new value chains that are more inclusive and sustainable and supply the materials that we need for the transition and get the transition right and on the multilateralism I think we are still believing in evidence and enlightenment and engagement of science in diplomacy and we will increase our efforts to promote science-based diplomacy a little bit old school but we still think it can work if it's done right and also work across of course other other partners and change agents in civil society and businesses that that will be part of driving transitions moving forward so with that fantastic to hear you all thank you all so much for listening all participants and see you soon bye bye thank you bye thank you bye have a great day have a good day bye