 All right, very good morning. It is Friday, 3rd of April. I hope everyone is well. Just gonna kick off firstly by saying, please like and subscribe to the channel on YouTube if you don't already do so. It will be very much appreciated by everyone here. Me included. Does feel always a little bit odd just doing this at home. I think through my career, I've gone from being sat on a trading floor delivering this to hundreds of people to then working as the head of a desk, a bigger company then broadcasting this to tens of thousands of people to now I'm kind of sat here at home on my own and just so people are clear here because I have had a few questions. I do have trousers on. I'm not, it's not just a shirt and then my pajamas underneath. So just to make that clear, but a couple of things then here. I just wanted to show you this is the Amplify Trading website if you just search AmplifyTrading.com. One thing I just wanted to quickly show you was basically when you're on the homepage if you scroll down, whether you're a trader or a student, you can basically click the Learn More because we have two quite distinct different arms of our business. I'm more involved in the trader side. If you click on that Learn More on the trader side, we just updated our webpage. So I'd really appreciate you guys checking it out. Maybe you give me some feedback. Just drop a comment on the video. I'd really like to get your thoughts. So obviously a bit of a video here is what would be our normal operations from our trading floor in the city of London. Couple of kind of the things that explain what we do essentially. The morning briefing, the members of the team. So these two guys, Will and Piers are the co-founders of Amplify and they're gonna be joining me for our live Zoom private webinar. If you did wanna take part in that, if you've not already registered, then I'm gonna drop the link at the bottom in the description of this video. So make sure you register for that. I'm gonna start half an hour before Payrolls comes out. We'll listen in, watch it live, analyze it and then do a bit of a debrief and take some questions. So absolutely welcome to join us. And then there's three different programs that we have in this new design website. It makes it way more clear in my opinion. So do have a look. There's the Amplify Now portal, which is something we just released brand new for 2020. And that's, I think it's about 72 on demand videos delivered by specifically really the head of trading, Piers and myself. But what we've been doing, we've added a new section where I do little macro snippets where I talk about, say, I did the live coverage of the jobless numbers yesterday, talk about tracking coronavirus, but Sam Norse, one of our traders and one of the senior mentors, he also does a daily strategy across different products and asset classes. So it's definitely worth checking out. Anyway, I'm gonna leave that up for you to have a look at in your own time, but let's just get back to markets and what we're looking at. And let's kick things off with just generally the state of play at the moment, obviously non-farm payrolls coming up, one of the main features of today, but we'll get under the bonnet of that in a moment and what we're expecting. The main thing here is equities after such a powerful week that we saw last week. Obviously we got up to that high that we printed what on Tuesday and we've been pulling back ever since really. You can see here on this chart and the top left where we hit that last week high on the test that another kind of double top test and then we came all the way coming back down here. We have recovered a little bit. We failed really to break the actual opening weekly load. So if we're looking at actually the range of this week, I mean this is the upper bound here and the lower bound and that has been respected in terms of we had a false kind of break, managed to close just above it on that candle stick on the print on the 30 minute on the first, so mid week and then same case again yesterday. Remember we had a run lower. We had the jobless claims of course and that kind of sets us up for the payroll number we're going to be looking at shortly but that was quickly reversed. Remember what we saw? A massive jump in crude oil at the time and that came, I mean when you actually look at this chart you probably think well it doesn't look that big actually but I mean just to put things into context that candle stick there and that spike that's 25%, 25% move in crude oil is massive. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it in terms of that severe move over that short timeframe. And even when you think about those the Iranian drone attacks on the Saudi Ramco infrastructure at the back of September of last year when we're talking more like 15% and these were massive moves then now talking about 25%. Interestingly though, we have paired the majority of that move and actually I've not looked but let's just quickly draw a fib on that move to see whereabouts we are. So now I haven't really respected it too much but you can see here we've reversed more than 50% of the move already. And I'm gonna discuss why that's happened and hopefully you managed to catch some of my commentary and tweets at the time because I definitely wasn't buying into the spike when it first happened. So let's get into the news. If you did want more charts and more from the technical side obviously just reach out to Sam on Twitter sNorth19 as his handle. But having a look here let's have an update on the coronavirus. So I don't think it's particularly from a market point of view it's not gonna move markets but from a symbolic point of view and absolutely a milestone of how severe that this pandemic has been. Total confirmed cases now have topped the one million mark globally as you can see here on the left hand side that the death tolls over 50,000 worldwide. The most hardest hit country still remains out of Italy just short of 14,000 followed by Spain. And then there's quite significant drop down to then France and then Hubei province in China, Iran and then the UK followed by New York City actually New York City in itself. So absolutely this number unfortunately continues to rise. The American confirmed cases now coming up to around a quarter million. And one would expect that to continue that pace for at least another two weeks probably in that acceleration phase. So it's gonna get unfortunately a lot worse before it gets better. Coming back to markets though this is one of the things that of course we were looking at yesterday and initially you did see that kind of classic reaction and there was a if you actually go on the YouTube channel I did actually post a live running commentary I did over jobless. And there was a really nice point of entry to get short on oil at that point to take about $2 out of the price where you had a really great risk reward. Some of the guys in trading live were there at the time. And so not only was there equities and the equity move was you need a little bit of patience. It took about 10 minutes really for it to gain a bit of traction before you saw a decent move actually. I mean when you talk about the S&P you are talking about from the initial release to the low decent 40 point move. So that sounds more relative on the charts when you look at it because we're trading these new larger ranges but that was a really good move. What's happened? Well this is the chart you remember me showing this time yesterday before the latest jobless numbers came out. And that was when we were looking at the first time claims filed in the week to March 21st and that was that 3.28 million we had last week. Well now you can top that up. We had the number yesterday at 6.6 million which basically means that 10 million people have now hit unemployed and are now searching in regards to benefits and the initial jobless claims have shot higher. And as you can see this really is quite unprecedented. Even the peaks in the global financial crisis you can see here was at 6.65. The 1980s recession peak was just a touch above that at 6.95. And so to be up here at 10 million is just absolutely historical in this sense. What does this mean then going forward? Well obviously all eyes will be on payrolls now coming out in a few hours time. The median consensus actually looks like it's been revised a little bit. Still though looking for potentially the first negative print basically since 2010 as you can see here the estimate on the street is for a minus 100,000 print. Now there are a couple things here to be aware of. First of all I've mentioned this a few times although since the macro menu that I send on a weekend and that's about the reference period. So whenever say non-farm payrolls is conducted there's a distinct kind of calendar date cut-off of where the data goes up to. Now in this case the reference period tends to be around the 12th, 13th of the month meaning then that basically this data that we're going to see today in payrolls actually does not encapsulate the majority of the layoffs that we would have seen that have happened here because this 10 million basically has happened after the date of which payrolls would have hit its deadline if that makes sense. So it's not going to capture the more widespread loss of employment which we're definitely going to see in the April payrolls report which we'll talk about in a moment. A few other things here I've made some notes from what I've been reading this morning. Obviously non-farm payrolls is more than just one number. There's the unemployment rate, there's the average hourly earnings, there's revisions to previous numbers and so on and so forth. Some of the key things here are wages and hours. They may be less reliable than usual because stretched and shut businesses might skip responding to the monthly survey. Now why might they skip? Well, typically the numbers are based on voluntary responses from about 150,000 businesses and government agencies. So just given the stresses put upon these businesses, perhaps any voluntary submissions just haven't been able to be done. So the kind of accuracy of the data as well might be subject to a few questions and meaning that later on down the line we could see quite significant revisions to previous data on the revision and the two month net revision. Census workers are poised to add about 17,000 to the March payroll figure according to the Bureau's tally of temporary hiring but 17,000 up in terms of employed is in the next month gonna be massively outweighed by the likelihood of multiple hundreds of thousands of people being unemployed. And with that being said, just wanted to give you a graphical or kind of a visual cue of what did payrolls look like during the global financial crisis of 2008, 2009. And as you can see here, there were periods of when job losses were down and the kind of headline changing on farms was minus 800,000. Now today we're looking at a minus 100,000. I guess the question rock here, and it's hard to with any accuracy say this, but we are gonna probably see some similar numbers to this if not perhaps even more severe. So we're gonna print down around here. And as you can see, even though we flirted and tested it a few times over the years in recent memory, the zero number, this is gonna be the first negative print. But in all honesty, we're gonna be about here on the marker come the end of today, perhaps with a variation between let's say zero and 300. In next month's report, I would expect this to be all the way down in these areas here. And so again, yes, there's gonna be volatility on today's number, but really to get a better insight as to the economic real implications that this pandemic has had, that might not be forthcoming until the kind of next coming data in the weeks and months ahead. Just going back to payrolls then. The other thing that we're looking for is we are expecting, well, let's just have a quick look here what the unemployment rate currently looks like in the US. So this is encapsulating the, again, the period of the financial crisis. So you can see here, if you like, they're an inverse relationship, obviously amount of people, the change in non-farms has dropped. So the unemployment rises. So here you can see unemployment in the financial crisis, topped out at roughly around 10% before then we've had this graduated, I'll just move it back here, pull back down to what has been, prior to all this happening, despite a trade war and all these other things and fears of a recession already from 12 months ago, unemployment rate in America was at record low territory. However, going forward, given how severe this is going to be, most people are anticipating now unemployment to rise into the mid teens, that being over and above the worst of the unemployment situation seen in the kind of late 70s, early 80s, definitely above that of 10% of the financial crisis. I think that will definitely be higher than that. So yeah, this is quite, as I said, unprecedented in that sense. One thing to be aware of here is the U3 rate. There are a few different statistical nuances between how unemployment is measured, but the U3 rate is formally, as it's formerly known, may fail to capture the full extent of unemployment, which is the main unemployment figure that we'll look at, because it only includes people actively looking for a job. That means then that some of the other measures that come out as comprised as part of the payroll report, including the participation rate and employment population ratio, should also be looked at for a better gauge about how severe the decline in unemployment is. So remember, just to make that clear, and do just jump on, or leave me a question on the video, or just go on to Investopedia, if you type in U3 unemployment rate, it will make a bit more sense, but essentially it's people that are actively looking for a job, but if you're self-contained and you're self-isolating, then how can you be out looking for a job? So it's a little bit difficult to really harness that data to get a true reading of really what the underlying situation is. It could underplay it, which is where you've got to look at the participation ratio to get a better idea of how accurate that unemployment rate is. The idea here then, from a broader economic and trading perspective, I saw this this morning, I thought this was excellent, because I definitely did a few tweets, and I did a post on LinkedIn about some thoughts about what I feel about the virus going forward, more kind of medium term. And this I thought was quite interesting because this is mapping at the left-hand side here, 2008 versus 2020. And the blue line here is the S&P 500 during the era of the depths of the financial crisis and the red line here, that's kind of solid red line is the movement we've had in the S&P 500 through the beginning of this year. And then the trajectory of what this particular bank is looking at under two different scenarios. Scenario one, their ball case, the outbreak peaks within the next two to four weeks, or their base case, a prolonged virus outbreak. And for me, this virus to peak and then we kind of be back on track again in the next two to four weeks, I think is absolutely not gonna happen. I'm way more bearish than that, I would say. I think this is gonna be much more protracted than people are definitely underestimating this. One of the things I was talking about yesterday on Twitter, if I just quickly jumped to it, there was a really good piece I saw. I know this is a bit small to see, but let me read it out to you. This was in the Harvard Business Review, and I just thought, it's something we've talked about in the briefing a lot, but it really summarizes it quite well. And it's talking about people's somewhat almost complacency about just getting in control. The peak virus means that's the end markets recover. For me, these points really are really, again, say it all. The virus properties are not fully understood and could change. The role of asymptomatic patients is still imperfectly understood. The true rates of infection and immunity are therefore uncertain, especially when testing is limited. Policy responses will be uneven, often delayed, and there will be missteps. And the reactions of firms and households are uncertain. And then another bullet point, I think, is I've spoken to a couple of people who are small business owners, and they have really struggled where, if you think about it, the government needs to stop the rot in markets. Two weeks ago, markets were in free fall, record breaking levels of volatility and predominantly to the downside when we're looking at equity markets. Massive stress on the market might not immediately impact the guy on the street, but it certainly will do if it then is a trigger point to lead to a severe recession at that point. So governments have to come out and act. They have to, in order to try to control this runaway market before it even gets worse and the economic implications start to build even further. The problem they have then is the implementation. So when we talk about these stimulus measures and how they're going to help small and medium-sized enterprises, well, that's all well and good, but these small businesses can only survive for a very, very finite short period of time. And without actually getting that available credit quickly, they can no longer exist and people get laid off and are unemployed. And this is what was leading to these massive losses of jobs and these big spikes and jobless claims that we're seeing. So that and the fact that this isn't a crisis born out of subprime or this kind of these investment vehicles or speculation, this is a pandemic. And for me, I do think that trying to harness then a virus which is still not really fully understood, the scientists still don't have a solution definitively yet and scientific research takes time in terms of finding a full-on vaccine. So yeah, as you can tell, I'm a little bit bearish still on the kind of, I'm not bearish as you know, I'm this massive bear. It's more of a viewer of, I just think this notion that we're going to have a quick getting over of this, I think it's misplaced. Now with that, here is a good, this is where I saw these good graphics that really show three things, the kind of shape of recovery. And they were using as a case study 2008 and here you've got the V-shaped recovery that was witnessed in Canada who really averted a kind of recession during the global financial crisis and through the advent of kind of forward guidance. And this was where Mark Carney did such an excellent job before he became the Bank of England governor. They managed to basically have pre-crisis growth and actual growth track almost identical. So despite the little blip that you can see here, it's almost difficult to see. They just continued on track as productivity grew with just the general business cycle over time. In America, we have now managed in recent years to basically run parallel to the pre-crisis growth trend albeit off where we were. So we've kind of been put off track and just gone down a separate road if you like. But then for Greece, I mean, this is the old shape and this is kind of the worst case where economically it's still been, not only was it massively damaging, it continues to have impeded their ability to grow to anywhere near their pre-crisis growth levels. So obviously these ones much more precarious, economically fiscally in these types of situations. So yeah, this is what we're looking at. When we're looking at the unemployment rate, remember workers exit the workforce, skills are lost and productivity goes down. So the bigger, the more these jobless claims start coming out and let's say next week is another six million, then another six million. The unemployment rate goes from eight to 10 to 12 to 15. All the more difficult it becomes to see this type of V and U shape and we start going down into more, I guess, not quite as perhaps as severe when it comes to someone like the United States as an L shape, because don't forget they are doing these mammoth stimulus packages. But again, the longer term implications that you can derive here from an investment point of view from what we're seeing from these jobs data as well as the short-term intro data to be able to trade to volatility. All right, final few things I just really wanna cover off. This was yesterday. You might have seen me tweeting about this because I just, it was a crazy move when it happened. So basically Trump tweeted as he does and he basically said that he's ironing a global oil output cut of 10 million barrels a day. Now I can almost imagine it, Trump's probably sat there in the White House and he's got his Bloomberg terminal and he's like, right, okay, Whiting Petroleum far for bank chapter 11 yesterday, right? This is really gonna be bad now. We know the virus is getting worse all around the nation. I'm gonna have to start intervening now on this oil price. Otherwise it's gonna go from 20 bucks to 16 to 10 pretty quickly. Then we're gonna have mass unemployment in the oil and gas industry, right? Tweet, bang, 10 million we're gonna cut global. I've had a conversation with Russia and Saudi. We're all talking again. Market responds as it should do. Spikes higher aggressively. Trump then goes, wow, oh my God, look, it's just spiked 25%. You know what, I'll tweet again. Actually, not 10, 15. He actually did that. When he did that, I knew that this was just absolute BS. And so that's why I was quite critical at the time and actually, when it spiked up to, where do we get to in oil? I think we got up to about, let me just transition my chart here. We spiked all the way up to 27.39 and then we came all the way tearing back down, not that long after, to 24.13. And I just couldn't believe this was such a, this was such a basic error, I think, on behalf of Trump, that second tweet. He just couldn't help himself because it's one of those things where markets move on expectations, not reality in a sense because there's no cut that's happened so far. He's just saying these things and the market instantly prices that in. Now, when he went from 10 to 15, now that doesn't sound like a lot, okay, 10, 15, but actually that's another five million. So that's 50% of the entire cut that you've just been talking about being bolted on the top. So that's a massive difference. And for me, when you, having spent the last 14 odd years watching the way that news comes out, whenever I hear a comment like that, for me, then how I remain, I guess, rational or look for the trade is that trying to capture that tweet and that initial explosive move is pretty impossible to be fair, it's so quick. And there are algos hooked up to trade that sort of thing and you're never gonna get really a hold of it in time. But then for me, it comes, well, hang about, Trump is saying this, no one else is saying this. And for me, then the one thing that did come out was a third comment, which was that Saudi officials reportedly were looking to call for an emergency OPEC plus meeting. That was when we hit the eventual top. But for me, well, where's Russia? And Russia were not forthcoming. And then it became apparent then that basically they weren't talking. Well, let me read you through this. So how it came out was a second person familiar with the situation said, Trump's goal is purely aspirational and will ultimately hinge on whether Saudi and Russia reach a deal. An OPEC plus delegate familiar with the conversation similarly said Saudi Arabia and Russia had yet to agree a production cut, let alone its size. Any proposed curves would be conditioned upon other major oil producers also agreeing to reduce production. So think about it from a political point of view and management point of view. You've just had a big oil firm going to bankruptcy yesterday for Trump. Trump, remember, is scheduled to meet with the likes of Exxon, Chevron, the big oil majors today. So going into this, he wants to, you know, promote a figure of strength, if you like. And so out come the comments. But at the end of the day, we remain exactly where we were, you know, without Russia and Saudi sorting this out, this price spike is not gonna be long lasting. So we are getting closer to that point. Don't get me wrong. You know, the fact that we've come as far as we have, I mean, if I start looking here on the 90 minute, this is where we had that OPEC meeting. You remember they failed to see eye to eye. They didn't cut markets on aggressive gap down. And that was when the Saudis were saying they were gonna flood the market and discount prices. Then we had that temporary reprieve on the back of the U.S. saying, well, we're gonna buy oil and top up the SPR. Didn't last long. And if you look where we are now, we've come up to the top of that range that we were in really last week. Had a brief break through that, but it's gonna be interesting to see. It's quite key where we're really trading at the moment. But all of this for me still hinges on really the Russians being more force coming. The Saudis we know have been a little bit more open to the idea that they want action. It's the Russians that haven't agreed at this point. And some of the latest that I've seen this morning is OPEC Plus reportedly to hold a meeting next week. Said to be Monday, according to a few people. It's kind of journalists who monitor and track the behind closed doors conversation. So yeah, hopefully that helps. I mean, as far as today's calendar is concerned, yeah, it's all dominated by the afternoon. There's a few things coming out this morning, but quite frankly, it probably doesn't even warrant me commenting on. I think these service numbers are all final ones. Probably the one, perhaps that you can keep an eye on will be the service PMI coming out of the UK, just given the composition of our economy and the service one in the UK does tend to be market moving. And that is expected to be 34.8 down from a 53.2 reading. So a severe hit, of course, to that figure. And then the payrolls report. So again, the registration link will be in the chat. So check that out and hopefully I'll see you a bit later on this afternoon. Okay guys, that is it. Enjoy your weekend and any questions, just leave a comment in the video. Thanks very much.