 Just five games on the main slate for today in daily fantasy baseball and although there are some decent options We're definitely scraping along here trying to identify Stacks and pitchers who do stand out and have a combination of floor and ceiling and there are guys who definitely fit that but I Think it's a volatile slate and volatile slates can be daunting It can be a bit scary But they can also be a good thing because they they give more wiggle room to people who identify upside identify Players who could bust out who don't have high roster rates and I think we can do that for today via Being different without being dumb and that's always our goal as always So we're gonna dive in to this Thursday main slate identify What the the ideal options are but then also identify ways we can pivot from that and try to Put ourselves in a good spot to take advantage of what should be a pretty wonky slate welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna. So I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down a five game main slate What locks up for 640 p.m. Eastern for today only weather note on the slate is that there is one game with cooler temperatures? That is out west in San Diego for the Brewers and the Padres I would downgrade hitters there a bit to account for the temperatures that are cooler there than they are elsewhere We'll dive into the pitching preview and get you set with some stacks in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed the NBA Daily ISO may be done But the solo shot continues here every weekday USC for select events and PGA as well get all those by Subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating As well in the solo shot does go up over on the fandal YouTube page each day Also, the NBA playoffs are here and you can turn crossovers into cash with fandal Just visit fandal right now and place a $5 bet and you'll get an instant 150 bucks and bonus bets win or lose There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than on America's number one sportsbook Just go to fandal.com and sign up and get a hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets when you bet your first five bucks Fandal official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandal is offering Online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with the Kansas Star Casino LLC Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or visit fandal.com slash rg in Massachusetts. Hope is here gambling helpline ma.org Or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in New York 18778 hope and wire text open Y in Arizona call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1 888-789-7777 or visit ccp g.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1805 to 247 hundred or in Kansas case gambling help calm Louisiana is one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Maryland MD gambling help org and in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler.net Pitching preview for this five-game main slate Nicoladolo is the highest salary pitcher on fandal coming in at $10,000 we got Jill Ryan coming in at 99 against Yankees Jordan Montgomery is a 94 Nick Martinez 81 and Bailey falter at 8,000 rounding out the top group for today Lidolo is facing the Phillies for the second straight start and I hate that because it means the opposing team is Familiar with his pitch mix. They've seen him recently. They've studied him recently. That's a downside for sure. I Still think we need Lidolo as our top pitcher of the night though It is very helpful that although the Phillies saw him they didn't see him Well, he shoved in that game 12 strikeouts seven innings just three hits allowed And part of the reason that Lidolo is able to get 12 strikeouts is because they let him go Basically as long as he wants in his first two games He has gone 107 and 110 pitches. He is a cyborg in the most beautiful way We've also seen the strikeouts there for a pretty long sample now for Lidolo We're up to 14 starts with fewer forcing basketballs right now And in that time a 31% strikeout rate a 3.17 skill interactive ERA and the matchup is good from a ceiling perspective as well because the Phillies have a 25% strikeout rate versus lefties on their current active roster since the start of last year That's why Lidolo was great in that matchup I have Lidolo projected for 8.5 strikeouts tonight, which is well clear of everybody else So yeah, it stinks that it's a repeat matchup, but I don't see any great alternatives here So I think we need Lidolo at the top of our list despite the fact it is a bummer This is a repeat matchup for what we saw last week The good thing is at least he was great there and hopefully he can be great once again tonight Number two for me is going to be Jordan Montgomery He is a slight edge over Jill Ryan mostly due to Ryan's situation here facing with the Yankees Ryan and the appeal of him in things to watch Montgomery's matchup not nearly as daunting He is at home against the Pirates and the Pirates I think maybe better than perception even with O'Neill crews being out now But they're not a team I truly fear by any means and it's not the Yankees a Yankee Stadium Plus Montgomery is a really good real world pitcher and he's been that ever since he joined the Cardinals We're up to a 13 start sample on Montgomery where They let him throw his forcing fastball gave him confidence in that pitch and in that time the 3.43 skill interactive ERA With a 24% strikeout rates his fly ball rate just 31% He pairs those really good peripherals with even better results his ERA is 2.97 The overall strikeout rate for Montgomery has been fine But I think it's helpful that he's had good single game upside with in that as well He had nine strikeouts against the Brewers last time out and another game with nine strikeouts And two others with eight in the same sample. So it's a five game slate pretty limited options That's more than enough for us to feel good about him for tonight Montgomery strikeout projection is 5.97 for me It's not nearly Lidolo's it's way behind that but it's still fine enough and above the others other than Lidolo and Joe Ryan So I'll put Montgomery seconds I feel firm putting Lidolo first and we'll talk about Joe Ryan as a potential contrarian option The way to be different without being dumb in things to watch as far as the value goes I want to be out on Chris Bassett. I was kind of hoping they'd stick him at 9,000 for tonight and I could just ignore him In any other setup I would be out here because his velocity is rough bad results so far, but he's facing the Tigers I'm going to give him a look here just due to the salary matchup in slate size the salary for bass It is $7,300 which is way down from as usual the matchup as we know is elite versus Detroit 77 WRC plus to them against righties with a 125 ISO and a 26 percent strikeout rate The Tigers check every box he wants for an imposing matchup perspective we've seen two starts with Bassett with his velocity being down and In those two starts nine and one third innings He has exactly the same number of walks strikeouts and home runs five five five across the board not ideal So again, if he were facing any other team, I'd be happy about that But those two matchups in Bassett's defense were on the road against the Cardinals and the Angels to very tough offenses Now he's at home. Maybe he gets some of that velocity back if he does he has upside So I am fine considering that as a possibility But the key caveat here is if Bassett tracks to be popular based on the matchup and the salary Bridge too far from me. I cannot handle a guy with really bad velocity really bad peripherals really bad results If he's gonna be the chalk, but if his popularity is more neutral like average, he's a fine value play I'm at least willing to consider. I think I'd prefer all three of Lidolo Ryan and Montgomery over Bassett, but Bassett is the best value play for tonight I'd like to avoid it. So hopefully he tracks to be popular I can just pivot and feel good about it But you know all else equal he is the best value play for tonight So Chris Bassett without value but huge preference for me for Lidolo followed by Montgomery and then by Joe Ryan Again, we'll talk about Ryan's appeal later on today first so let's dig into the stacks and go back to that Montgomery game facing off at the Pirates and I think that the Cardinals offense is a pretty easy call as the top stack for today They're facing Vince Velasquez and not only are the Cardinals one of the best offenses on this slate, but This may be the best matchup as well Velasquez has been trying to figure things out for years now and been plenty of iterations where he did make gains We've seen it, you know have some some good stretches But he hasn't found the magic sauce yet, especially not this year in two starts so far Velasquez has expected the array is six point two three He has more walks and strikeouts the bad of all numbers are better than they were last year but they're not good enough to overcome the rest of the profile and You know the bat the bat of all numbers despite being better are still nowhere near elite So this decision to me is easier than making Lidolo as a top pitcher making the Cardinals a top stack They have a great offense 118 WRC plus against righties They have a good matchup against a guy who is likely to let up fly balls and hard contact And I think that makes them the top team on the slate by a wide margin so going back to the Cardinals once again as a top stack for tonight and That's not going to be contrarian by any means people will be on the Cardinals But as always you're not going to see all nine batters than this lineup wind up being super super popular in terms of roster rates So one way to be different without being dumb is by dipping down in the order and using guys who bat six seven eight somewhere around there and on this specific team on the Cardinals You can do that without sacrificing upside because Nolan Gorman has huge power Tyler O'Neill better against lefties for sure But does deal some bases he has some power against righties Jordan Walker has looked comfortable so far in his transition from double A to the majors and he has stolen base upside as well So again our goal in DFS is to be different without being dumb I think you can do that within Cardinals stacks tonight despite the fact they as a team will be popular by pivoting down to Six seven eight looking at Gorman O'Neill Walker all those guys very fun options And I think that if you're trying to again differentiate yourself without Going suboptimal ways. I think that's the way I choose to do so for tonight Behind the Cardinals for sacking. I'm gonna put the blue jays second I would not blame you if you view them similar to similar to the Cardinals I think you could view that that way But the key difference for me is ground ball rates The Jays are facing Spencer Turnbull who was a big ground ball guy before he got Tommy John surgery He has made two starts and is coming back and The ground balls are still there. He has a 55 ground ball rate, which does hurt opposing upside for sure But everything else about Turnbull has been rough so far. He has a 6.7 percent swinging strike rate His expected era is 8.21 One game is against the rays very tough match up there Other was against the red sox and the blue jays actually do have a higher wrc plus against righties than boston does And now Turnbull is doing this on the road So I do not like stacking against ground ball pitchers. I think that that is rough in general for sure And Turnbull was showing Some flashes before he had his surgery of being a viable guy for daily fantasy I would love to see him get back to that because it's tough to see guys Go through Tommy John and and not get back to what they were doing before the injury But in this spot I think it's why it's a sack against him and I will do so with the jays I think they're a full tier behind the cardinals, but if you want to put them in the same tier I think that's totally defensible as well As discussed here plenty on the show primarily last year. I am a huge Dalton var show guy And I might be becoming more of one right now His hard hit rate this year is up to 44 percent It was 35 percent last year and that's pushed his expected Wooba up to 347 from 298 last year And that's just the hitting the speed is there too So we haven't seen var show go nuts so far this year But I think that going nuts is well within his range of outcomes and he doesn't need to go nuts To get upside via his speed. He can get some singles walks stuff like that. So I'm a big Dalton var show guy. I'm gonna keep on doing that right now Uh, I think that his salary is pretty forgiving down at 30 200 dollars So Dalton var show a focal point for me within these jay stacks as I try to target since they're turning bowl for tonight I do think the Padres are in play for stacks. I just don't know who they're facing yet So They might well be third, but I can't really talk about their match up because I don't know what it is The brewer's pushed all their starters back. So I'm not really sure what to do there I do think the Padres or the Brewers though are in play in the same game facing Nick Martinez Again caveat here is that it's cooler in San Diego that it is elsewhere on the slates We do downgrade bats despite that. I do still like Milwaukee Martinez It's his third start this year. The first two have been pretty rough with a lot of walks Not enough strikeouts. He's a pretty good bad at ball data But guys are connecting on some of his pitches. He's making mistakes The baseline is a high ground ball right, but he is making some mistakes Martinez has led up a 13.9 percent barrel rate up from 8.1 percent last year All that leads the walks lack of strikeouts hard contact leads to a 7.46 expected DRA from Martinez Those games were against the Rockies and the Braves One of those is very tough in the Braves other one not very tough in the Rockies that game was in San Diego The Brewers pretty good offense 109 WRC plus against Reides with a 178 iso They're not the worst offense, but also definitely not an easy spot by any means So I think they're fine. I wish that Martinez didn't get as many ground balls But they will work on a short slates the Brewers to me for now The number three stack depending on what the Brewers decided to do a pitcher because I could push the Padres above them Martinez last year did let up more fly balls to lefties and Reides the Brewers this year pretty lefty happy So that's a good thing here in this matchup We love the power from Rowdy Thales, but I kind of like Garrett Mitchell quite a bit Mitchell has some power got a bit of speed. He had 24 steals last year across AA AAA and the majors He's had a good start so far this year with plenty of hard contact still some strikeouts But that's going to be the case for Mitchell always And but Martinez doesn't get a whole lot of strikeouts Martin are Mitchell likely to bat six. He's $3,200 so not cheap but I want guys with multiple paths to upside and Mitchell definitively does does have that so the Brewers right now my number three team for stacking Let's dig into things to watch talk about some more ways to potentially be a bit different That could be via Jill Ryan. I think he's a fun contrarian option He's facing the Yankees here in pretty good hitting weather very tough matchup So that makes Ryan a massive riskier tonight But in the two starts with a new pitch the splitter in play for Joe Ryan He has a 35 strikeout rate So he has a good upside. He just doesn't have a good floor and I'm okay with that trade off personally Because I don't mind risk. I want the upside for DFS Ryan has that so If you want to get off the Liddell and repeat matchup or avoid Montgomery Who may not have the biggest strikeout upside? I think Ryan's a fun way to do so So Joe Ryan a good pivot for I think specifically single entry tournaments for tonight I have no idea who the Brewers are starting as mentioned. They pushed Eric Lauer back a day It's one spot. You'll have to check back on later. So just make a mental note Later on today before you fill out lineups. Go check out nlb.com Check out the scores page. See who the Brewers are starting. The potteries could be a great stack I just don't really know who they're facing yet. So check back on that one later Finally, the Reds are facing Bailey falter who's had a good start to this year But we'll let up fly balls. We'll let apart contact that makes the Reds an option There just aren't a ton of guys you want to Use against a lefty here. So they work, but they're not super super desirable Spencer steer could be okay as a one-off if you want to fill third base $3,000 has some ceiling Platoon advantage here as well. So I think you could go that way if you wanted to or if there are other Reds you like against lefties Let's finish up with the dinger calls for today a boring one and a fun one For the boring one. I got to go back to Dalton varsho again I like the bad at ball data early on this year. I think that that's adding up Well face and turn ball who may let up more fly balls to lefties and righties So varsho in a good spot take advantage will go Dalton varsho for the boring one for the fun one Let's go back to the Cardinals. Let's go Nolan Gorman. Obviously he has massive power so it's not a You know off the wall kind of recommendation for our fun one, but I like it a lot homers and consecutive games already has four So far this year 33 $1 on fan duel good dinger upside. So we'll go with him I know it's not the most fun pick, but I think he's got a good shot to go to you for today So the home run calls for today are Dalton varsho and Nolan Gorman That's all we got for today here on the solo shot again interesting slate Try to think about ways to be different without being dumb whether it be Using different guys than the cardinal stacks. Maybe using Joe Ryan Think about those things as you're formulating Hey, and try to get them in a good spot to be different without being dumb We are back once again tomorrow to break down Friday's main slate So make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast search for us there hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating again Check out the solo shot over on youtube Do you want to watch a video version of it as well? If you have any questions for me? I am on twitter at jimsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb Dfs lineups. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down a packed Friday slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network