 Could Brexit be reaching its end game? Boris Johnson came back with a deal from Brussels yesterday which he claims has got rid of the backstop and so genuinely takes back control. The deal will be put to the commons at a special parliamentary session tomorrow and by all accounts the vote will be incredibly tight. What's in the deal? What happens if it passes? And what next if it falls? On this Friday night edition of Tiskey Sour I'm joined by Dawn Foster, star fighter at Jacobin. Welcome to the show. I'm also joined by Tom Kobatty, director at the IPPR who I assume is speaking in a personal capacity this evening. Purely personal capacity. Purely personal capacity. I want to start with you Tom. An introduction to what's in this deal that's different to Theresa May's deal. So I think this is quite a substantially different deal for a whole series of reasons. The first one is that it takes the protections for workers' rights and environmental protections and consumer standards out of the legal text of the withdrawal agreement and lands them in the political declaration which is basically a statement of intent so it doesn't have any legal force. So what that means is it opens the door to a decade of deregulation where you'd be able to cut back on those rights and standards and protections in order to cut a trade deal with say Donald Trump. So that's the first big thing. The second big thing is on Northern Ireland where it effectively abolishes the backstop by implementing all of its provisions on a permanent basis. So it effectively creates a one country two systems model for the UK where Northern Ireland will be effectively in the single market and in the European Union customs union as a result as soon as the UK diverges on any regulations from the rest of the EU there'll need to be regulatory checks in the Irish Sea and whilst for people who want unification that's obviously a good thing it's a big step forward towards the reunification of Ireland for the Unionists. They have a lot of problems with that and that's why the DUP aren't able to support it. It clearly moves away from having a customs union so whereas previously the political declaration said that they would build on the withdrawal agreement and effectively was pointing towards high regulatory alignment and a customs union what this deal does is basically put that option to bed and say it's heading explicitly towards a free trade agreement. What that means is a huge set of problems for British industry so you saw in the week beforehand that the car makers, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage manufacturing all these industries said this is going to be a disaster for British industry so as a whole it changes the scenario and if you look at the government's own assessments of the impact of different deals this is a much much worse deal for the British economy than even May's deal so May's deal was bad that was going to make us poorer this will make every household more than £2,000 a year less well off in the future so this is a very bad deal for Britain and that's the big difference it's worse than Theresa May's deal and of course it satisfies one particular group which is those that want to reorientate the UK from the European sphere to the American sphere cut a deal with Donald Trump and deregulate to be able to do that and that's what its objective is and and that's why I think it should be opposed. So the main difference there I suppose is that this deal is for a harder Brexit than the one that Theresa May was offering that was a softer Brexit. In terms of what Boris Johnson has negotiated one victory he can probably claim is that there is now an exit mechanism from the backstop which isn't unilaterally held with the European Union to me that looked like I mean I don't want a harder Brexit so I'd happily have all of the UK and a customs union but if you were a hard Brexiteer the fact that it's decided in Northern Ireland whether or not they stay in the regular regulatory orbit of the European Union or with the rest of Britain or with the rest of the United Kingdom that seems like he he got a concession there. Well he got a concession of sorts so you get a vote every four years and a two-year cooling off period of course where Northern Ireland to then vote in that particular direction it would then require a hard border to be established on the island of Ireland so it's one of those things where it to some extent there is a unilateral exit mechanism but the unilateral exit mechanism is to restart the troubles by erecting a hard border between Northern Ireland and and the Republic. Dawn I have been struggling over the last well 24 hours I suppose to work out exactly what is going to happen in Northern Ireland it seems quite confusing they're going to be desgeaux within the customs union so when Britain signs trade deals it's also going to apply to Northern Ireland but they're going to be de facto within the European Union's customs union as it were what the hell is that going to look like in practice how do you be in law within how do you be in law outside of the customs union but de facto inside of it so it becomes incredibly complicated so a lot of the details especially around VAT are still not quite there there's a lot of talk about whether or not certain goods would not would not have any tariff supplied to would not have any checks applied to them so for instance if you are moving from London to Belfast everything that you moved you know as you're moving house wouldn't be subject to various checks wouldn't be subject to tariffs etc but there's also talk of moving in a kind of rebate scheme so essentially kind of pay now claim back later and a lot of people are very very unhappy about that and you know there are still a huge number of issues aren't fully fleshed out and a lot of people in Northern Ireland are still very unhappy and very unclear about what it means because you know it's it's a very very dense document there's a lot of discussion about how exactly you would exit the new kind of you know it's so instead of a backstop it's the permanent status quo and there's a lot of discussion about how you would actually exit that Stormwood isn't sitting at the moment they're going back in for for a very very peculiar complex optics sitting with with some of the parties on Monday that means literally nothing but at the moment if you if Northern Ireland wanted to actually exit the new backstop which is now the status quo is a full stop they would have to you know they would have to move to a vote every four years that would kick in and there's still a lot of to and fro in over whether or not there would be a community element to it whether or not you would have to get buy-in from both you know from both communities but also a lot of people pointing out there are a huge number of people in Northern Ireland who aren't a member of either community it's actually a very complex place a lot more complex and a lot of people would like to claim it is and then what do you do if Stormwood isn't sitting at the moment it seems that if Stormwood isn't sitting then it just rolls over every two years until it does eventually sit again but there is a huge amount of detail that hasn't been fully fleshed out and I think it's really interesting that it seemed very obvious that the Conservatives thought that they could bounce the DUP into agreeing to a deal by jumping out on Thursday I've been awake for years now and saying we have a deal the DUP are on side and the DUP said nothing's changed we gave you a statement at 7 a.m. nothing's changed we are not we are not on side and Sammy Wilson their Brexit spokesman has been traveling around every every single media outlet that will have it have to have him and pointing out that they will be voting against it not abstaining they will be voting heavily against it but also claiming that they have hard Brexiters coming to them and saying that they will be back in the DUP and that they will take the DUP's lead so the DUP are very very heavily against it because they don't want to be seen any differently to Britain they they see themselves as a British and they see this as a complete capitulation by Boris Johnson they think he's thrown them thrown them under the bus entirely and apparently you know Boris Johnson and the Conservatives haven't made any effort to contact anybody in the DUP since the deal was announced and presumably they can see what everyone else can so so I suppose the reason in my mind that you moved away from the backstop which was the idea that if you have not sorted out a trading relationship that keeps us off border the whole island of Ireland will stay in the customs union now that holds that's that's the case unless Stormont decides otherwise but presumably what everyone is assuming is that Stormont will never decide that and the DUP can presumably see that Northern Ireland will never vote to for a hard border on the island of Ireland so the DUP don't think that will happen but also like they are completely opposed to ever be intrigued and ever be intrigued differently to what they see as the rest of the UK they're very very upset about it they're very very angry about it but also some of their you know some of their reasoning seems incredibly peculiar so Sammy Wilson was on Radio 4 Today program this morning I expected him just to say Boris Johnson has thrown us under the bus he's sold us under the river and actually Sammy Wilson said that the DUP would be voting against the deal and he thought that if the deal fell that then we'd move to a general election and then Boris Johnson would jump out and get a much harder deal and even though he wouldn't need the DUP he bring them back on side so it seems it's really peculiar really really peculiar thing well I'm convinced that Sammy Wilson is exactly the kind of person who who genuinely believes that that his dog isn't dead it's a lie on a farm and it will come back someday he is convinced that Boris Johnson and the Conservatives still need the DUP still care about them and ever cared about them at all other than just to make a little margin up in the comments you've been arguing that the Northern Ireland situation in the in the new deal is unsustainable I can see why the DUP don't like it because it gives Northern Ireland a different status to Great Britain or the rest of the United Kingdom but why is it unsustainable why can't that just plod along and yes and people in the DUP can be angry about it so I think there are two reasons so one is to pick up on what Dawn said about the complexity of this new system and whether it can be understood given it hasn't yet been worked out and it's supposed to be really complex and it involves really complex rebates and all of that kind of stuff why would any business invest in Northern Ireland I can't see any rationale of why business would choose to invest in Northern Ireland under those circumstances because they simply don't know how a system is going to operate and then even if it was known how that system would operate it would be really costly to operate it so if you have to claim back the tariffs as rebates it basically means any business operating in Northern Ireland that is a importer an exporter so it does for instance different types of assembly and manufacturing so in the UK manufacturing about 35 percent or 40 percent of manufactured goods in the UK are made with components that are imported then you're going to have to have an incredibly complex system that's going to mean that you have to have much more working capital in the business so it's going to be a long run less competitive place to invest so I think that's the first problem because at the end of the day prosperity is always essential for peace it's one of the real foundation stones of peace I think the other reason that it's unsustainable is that whilst it will give Northern Ireland the ability to say it doesn't consent to such an arrangement in theory every every four years it doesn't mean that those people who live there have their views represented in the European processes so they won't have an MEP they won't be able to input to the Commission they will be in this kind of strange special status where they effectively have regulation without representation and I think in the long run it is a big this will be seen as an important step towards reunification the other thing that I suppose it I think it reveals and I'd be really interested to know what Dawn thinks about this is to some extent it suggests to me that the Good Friday Agreement was always more of a model of shared sovereignty than people had necessarily appreciated and that actually the Nationalists had secured a much more comprehensive success in 1998 with the Good Friday Agreement than perhaps people realised at the time and as in a sense I don't think at the time people thought the Good Friday Agreement was a form of shared sovereignty I think what this process had revealed is that it was shared sovereignty mediated through the EU and I think that's why we've had so many problems but I wonder I mean Dawn knows a lot more about this than I do I wonder whether that is no I think it's going to be right and I think it's been really interesting talking to Nationalists about what they think about this and they've all been very very strategic and very very thoughtful and said look it's a massive document we need to think a lot about this but it addresses a lot of our concerns and it addresses a lot of our worries and you know obviously the DUP are hugely upset and that's always encouraging it's really interesting to see the DUP who campaigned very very hard against Good Friday Agreement suddenly talking about you know all of the principles of the Good Friday Agreement just being completely thrown asunder after multiple promises by the Conservatives and I think most people that I speak to now in Northern Ireland and the Republic just fully you know even before this Brexit deal they they felt that you know unification was inevitable but now after this they they genuinely think it's going to be within the next five years and I think what's really interesting is that when obviously like you know all the Nationalists I know have been in favour of it and when they talk about Brexit they see this as a massive catalyst it's really basically it's it's really kind of sharpened a lot of people's perceptions of how they are perceived by a lot of people in England especially in London especially the Conservatives but what's been really interesting is that throughout this whole process the DUP and the Unionists have been really sharply focused on London occasionally looking at Brussels but at no point have the Unionists look to the people that they need to win over if they want to keep the Union together so constantly focus on looking at the Conservatives they constantly focus on England they constantly focus on London and obviously there's a big nationalist community in in North Ireland and they've always been in favour of unification but there's a really really big community of people who don't you know who fall into that hinterland who don't you know don't traditionally describe themselves as Nationalists don't traditionally come for a Unionist background and you know the Nationalists done a lot of work to win them over the English and especially the Conservatives done a lot of work by just you know making them really angry and so everybody's been kind of slowly working to push people towards unification whereas the Unionists have done nothing I want to move beyond I want to move on from the Northern Ireland question towards the level playing field question although I do wish that I'd put in did you see the Question Time video last night of the guy in the audience who was saying he gave a really a really impassioned speech which was basically saying yeah I think Boris Johnson's done all right actually I think he's gone there and he's done a really good deal and you've got Martin Dorbney from the from the Brexit party doing these big you know theatrical nods on the stage and Matt Hancock doing these theatrical nods and then he says and I don't know I mean this Northern Ireland thing why doesn't the island of Ireland just be one country yeah yeah yeah why don't we just go back to that I want to do level playing field stuff so the Labour Party's main attack line against you're right dawn oh have some water the main attack line from the Labour Party over this deal is that it is a ruse by the Conservative Party and by Boris Johnson to enable us to slash regulations when it comes to the environment and workers rights before I ask you about it I want to go to a clip because Boris Johnson is obviously denying this and he is doing a schmoozing operation to try and win round Labour levers how successful that will be we'll talk about in the second half of the show but first of all this is Boris Johnson talking to Robert Peston about why his Brexit deal does not threaten workers rights can you enshrine in law the kind of guarantees they want environmental protection and workers rights for example well it will be there in the political declaration and I can't imagine the withdrawal agreement bill which is the withdrawal agreement bill will will almost certainly contain the kind of protections and provisions that you that you that you are talking about but that though you know we won't be publishing it immediately so he's saying Boris Johnson and speaking to Robert Peston saying we don't need to worry about slashing workers rights because one the political declaration says we won't be undercutting the EU and two in the withdrawal bill when when it comes forward because what they're voting on tomorrow is just you know a motion to say that they back the deal in principle that will contain guarantees about workers rights how how worried should we be that this is a slash and burn project well I think it's really rather ridiculous to say that you shouldn't be worried about it if you take out the legal protection that says there'll be no undercutting of workers rights that's in the original draft withdrawal agreement and then you put it into a non-binding waffle agreement about what you might do in the future but hey who knows why else would you do it so if it's really the case that there's no intention to undercut workers rights then why remove all the provisions that protect what workers rights from the legal text I mean I think there is just something really big here you know it's it's 2019 and if you would wind the clock back to 1979 40 years ago and you'd say to yourself what what is happening now with that and you saw that assault on workers throughout the 1980s and I think in a way this is setting the stage up for another assault on on workers in the in the 2020s and I just I can't see why you would believe that a hard right conservative government that believes in deregulation that wants a trade deal with Trump that removes the legal protections contained in the withdrawal agreement would somehow not have an agenda for cutting back workers rights like that's what they believe in that's what they do as a as a kind of matter of course it's the core of their ideology is deregulate and given that workers rights have been eroded gradually over time anyway now right all the change that the Tories have brought in so for example saying that you don't get many of the protections from from being dismissed for the first two years what they've done when in terms of just allowing zero-outs contracts to continue and all the other abuses that they've permitted cutting back the enforcement of minimum wage regulations why on earth would anyone believe that someone who takes away the ability takes away the protection from the legal text and moves it into the document that doesn't have legal force has any other intention and I think there's something really big about here about the Labour movement remembering and recalling the struggles of the 1980s and the solidarity that it took in that period to resist those kind of assaults on workers because it wasn't just about shutting things down and closing the mines or whatever right it was things like in whopping in 1986 when Murdoch smearly dismissed all the print workers and didn't give them redundancy payments right it was an attack on their rights as well as an attack on on British industries and you kind of look to the future and you say well there's no protection for workers rights they're putting in there isn't a customs union so we know that's going to damage British industry and you put it together and you say you know history is sort of repeating itself and we stand on the precipice of the 2020s just as they in 1979 stood on the press precipice of the 1980s and why on earth would we want to repeat that experience all over again and I think in the 80s you know the Labour movement stood in solidarity against thatcher and Murdoch and this time it needs to stand in solidarity against Johnson and Murdoch to make sure that we don't repeat that experience all over again I want to put John Mann's argument to you today because it was I think it was notable because it was kind of the lexit argument that's been made over the last three years we can probably get out this tweet so in response to Keir Starmer who is it's a tweet from Channel 4 News and it's Keir Starmer was saying last night that this is the worst deal than the one that was put before and it's a recipe for deregulation John Mann quote tweets this and says only a majority in Parliament in the future can vote to deregulate or a majority could vote to strengthen regulation it's called democracy so so the idea there and it's I mean it's got some intuitive appeal which is to say why are the Labour Party so terrified of of deregulation if we don't have the EU to guarantee those rights why do we believe that our Labour movement is so weak and why do we have so little faith in our own capacity to win elections and to to increase standards how would you respond to that I don't think we do have very little faith in it is basically like you know I mean John McDonald was asked a very similar question I'm ready for this morning it was very very peculiar question where essentially the presenter said you know why don't you trust British people via the conduit of their elected representatives to have British you know British employment rights you know why are British employment rights as good as European employment rights and you know John McDonald made you know the very obvious argument that you know if you if you are the Labour Party why on earth would you even risk a short period even if you like you know and I'm even if you think you can win election by landslide why would you why would you risk you know say 8 months 6 months 2 weeks of people not having access to workers rights if you are a Labour Party if you think that there is dignity and employment and that people deserve employment rights why would you risk like even any any worker having a day without that protection so you know I don't trust a Conservative Party the Labour Party don't trust a Conservative Party the only reason that you would move you know everything involves 11 playing in the level playing field from withdrawal agreement into the political declaration is because you know yes it is because you want to move away from being legally binding they're clearly up to something and if you look at our workers rights at the moment they're still quite weak because you know that obviously the unions work very hard to try and get around all sorts of you know all sorts of mechanisms that capital moves but you know we are constantly fighting against a capitalist system that tries to exploit work that tries to change the way that automation works that tries to constantly exploit us tries to you know try to make everything precarious what you know I can't understand why a labour why a labour movement would say do you know what is fine you know we'll leave it for two years because after those two years in which you have no employment rights we'll win them back for you and those two years your life won't count for anything it's like austerity saying like well it's a short you know it's a short belt exercise maybe for you know a government accounting department but not for somebody's actual life I want to go to one more clip and then we're going to move on to whether or not this is actually going to pass so this final clip we're going to show on this section is John Baron who's speaking to the well he's a member of the ERG and he's speaking to the BBC this morning about why he is willing to vote for the deal will you vote for this one yes we're seeking assurances there's a devil in the details still but the reason I am inclined to vote for this one is very simple Theresa May's backstop could have had us locked into that arrangement indefinitely Boris Johnson has torn up that backstop which means that if the trade talks are not successful after we hopefully agree the deal tomorrow here if those trade talks are not successful up to December 2020 that's how long they could take then we could leave on no deal terms and the reason that's important is by leaving no deal on the table it makes a good trade deal in those negotiations up to December 2020 more likely to succeed so when you say we could leave on no deal terms December of next year are you basically saying this is effectively no deal Brexit but just delayed by year my hope our hope is I think most of us in Parliament prefer a good deal to no deal but many of us also accept the reality of life if you like when negotiating that you've got to leave no deal on the table that helps to make for a better deal when talking about a trade deal up to December 2020 and because that possibility exists after December 2020 I think it will focus minds within the negotiations and we'll get a good trade deal that is our hope so this has been shared a lot today actually on Twitter as as evidence that in fact this deal is a mask or a cover for hard right Brexiteers who want us to have a no deal in a year's time when a trade deal or if and when a trade deal has not been signed with the Europeans what do you think about that how worried should people be about that particular scenario whereby we leave on a no deal at the end of 2020 well so I think there's there's two parts the first is as I said my guardian PCS today Boris Johnson is either lying to the ERG or he's lying to the Labour Party and to the British people my guess is that probably he's lying to us and not to his mates in the ERG who put him into power and on whose support he depends on for his for his office so he's got to be lying to someone because if they're all lining up to vote for it because they can get think they can get no deal it's a bit implausible for us to then say oh no no let's believe Boris Johnson he's probably just hook when hoodwinked the ERG and not hoodwinked us I mean that will be a completely bizarre conclusion to reach so I think it does leave no deal effectively on the table at the end of 2020 it doesn't leave have no dealing quite the same form as before because the other aspects of the withdrawal agreement will be in place so the security cooperation citizens rights and so on but what it does leave on the table is a no deal in terms of the form of of international trade so you could still just comprehensively wreck the British economy at the end of 2020 because the lunatics still want to exit onto WTO trading terms so it doesn't leave exactly the same form of no deal on the table so the citizens rights security cooperation so on but it does leave the core issue of no deal where it could you know wreak absolute havoc on exports and imports for the UK absolutely in play and that's why these people are signing up to to support the agreement so given that's on there they've attempted to smuggle it in the problem is that for the Tories now is that John Barron let the cat out the bag but you know it kind of tells you how they've been winning the RG over and it's Dominic Robb and it's Michael Gove going round telling people you know that lunatic fantasy that you have you can keep it and it's still going on but what they're up to why would anyone think that that was something that ought to be supported whether they by the way whether they are Tory MPs or Labour MPs so unless you're in that lunatic fringe I can't see any rational reason for any elected representative to think it's a reasonable thing to vote for a deal that's going to make the country poorer and put the country on the perpetual threat that a bunch of extremists will set the whole thing on fire. Let's move on to whether or not this is going to pass and what's going to happen in Westminster tomorrow first of all you're watching Tiskey South you're watching Navarra media as you know this show this channel this organization is only possible because of your kind donations if you are already a subscriber thank you very much if not please go to support.navarramedia.com and donate the equivalent of one hour's wage a month as ever please like this video it means it appears in more people's feed share it on Facebook share it on Twitter and keep your comments coming I will ask some of your questions at the end of the show Dawn seasoned political commentator I want I want an introduction to what's going to happen in Parliament tomorrow there's a special parliamentary session the first the first time they've met on a Saturday I think since the Falklands war 1932 where by the was in 1982 yeah whereby I was there you were there now you weren't there where now where where MPs are going to vote on whether they accept this deal or not if it passes obviously a huge a huge victory for Boris Johnson potentially we can leave the European Union on the 31st of October if it falls Boris Johnson is going to have to ask for an extension as mandated by the Ben Act and we won't leave on October the 31st and I mean we'll discuss what would happen next slightly later but but what do you think is going to happen in Parliament will Boris Johnson get his way will they ascent to this Brexit deal so what I find really interesting is that I spent all day as you can tell by the bags under my eyes touring TV and radio stations and constantly for you know media balance being put on with right-wingers and everybody has been number crunching everybody's been talking about what if it's going to happen and normally when these things happen I go on as a left-winger and say I think it will you know hopefully ever so slightly not be a disaster for the left and the right-wing is saying I think the right wing might edge it whereas this time I've been on and everybody said the same thing which is every single person I've been on I've been on with whether they're from the spectator the daily mail you know from any any album whatsoever you know young old etc all sorts of different sources because you know everybody has been just like pounding their phones asking everybody they know like looking for smoke signals and all sorts of things and every single person thinks that it's going to lose by a very very slim majority like a very very small number we're talking about maybe about five like I think it could easily lose in you know in I think that Boris Johnson could lose by under ten and obviously most of focus has been on how many Labour people he needs to bring over but I mean around about midday all of the possible Labour rebels said they hadn't been contacted by any of the Conservatives whatsoever some of them have come out since they might have been approached since but you know the Conservatives weren't really hammering the phones when you assumed they would have been whereas DUP said that they were quite confident that actually a lot of Conservatives might at the last minute run into a different lobby and really be surprised to whips so I think that you know I think it's very very unlikely that it will pass I feel like commentate the commentators I follow last night was saying they think it's going to fall by two or three votes and today now they think it's going to pass and I think that's because more Labour MPs than they expected are now suggesting they might vote for Boris Johnson's deal so that includes Melanie on who confirmed this afternoon she'd vote for the deal she was she voted against it but she voted against meaningful vote free so she voted against Theresa May's deal Sarah champion says she's going to vote for Boris Johnson's deal and Ronnie Campbell said last night he was going to vote for Johnson's deal may's final meaningful vote so the third vote on her Brexit deal lost by a margin of 58 by 344 votes to 286 so Boris Johnson needs 30 switches by Alex Wickham's account 15 people have already confirmed they will be switching so he needs 15 more people to confirm Tom have you been doing calculations have you got your own Excel up well so I I think on on that I think it currently stands that 10 at Labour MPs saying that they will vote for it it's possible a few more come out I think dawn makes an important point which is that the ERG had been remarkably quiet and it's it's hard to tell whether you know some of the real head bangers or something decided last minute yeah which is that for some reason all of all the commentators have acted and told the public that ERG moves a group but actually they split quite often yeah they do that's exactly right they do split quite often and they they compose a quite different people I think what you saw last time with may's deal going down such a heavy defeat is that these things have a kind of snowball effect so once it becomes clear which way it's going to go if it becomes clear that the deal is going to be defeated then it'll be defeated by a much larger margin because then people have license to go and vote against it because they can maintain their position as purists so I think if it becomes apparent tomorrow that the deal won't get through then I expect that you'll see more of the ERG vote against it in order to sort of stick by their principles but I do think it's it is very close and that the truth is we won't know until tomorrow I think the bigger issue is that it does look like it's not close on the let-win amendment and because that the let-win amendment looks like it's going to pass actually let's explain the let-win amendment so tomorrow there's going to be a vote on on the motion which says we endorse Boris Johnson's deal Oliver let win who is a Tory back no he's now been expelled from the Tory party hasn't he so he's one of the people who lost one of the 21 Tories who lost the whip by voting for the Ben Act he has put forward amendment with with some other big X Tory grandees that says actually we are just going to note the fact that we have read Boris Johnson's deal but we will not be passing it until the proper legislation is brought forward so they're saying we want to see the legal text of the new legislation required to put the withdrawal act into force which can't happen before well tomorrow is the 19th isn't it so so that would mean if the let-win amendment passes Boris Johnson has to ask for an extension from the European Union and basically Parliament will get slightly more time to mull over what move they want to make I think it's becomes very significant because it means that if the let-win amendment passes then the whole kind of it burst the balloon of tomorrow it stops being that great dramatic moment where you know the deal either stands or fails and it it it sort of kicks it back into the sort of bureaucratic quagmire it is one of those extraordinary things that Parliament has found this real talent for kicking the can down the road see only thing they can agree on isn't it that's the story of the last two years and I think you're getting quotes you know from MP saying well the let-win amendment lets us off the hook and I think what it does mean potentially is that firstly it means that Johnson will have to get an extension under the Ben Act because the if the let-win amendment passes because then there will not have been a meaningful vote it means that then has to be the legislation brought forward the withdrawal agreement implementation bill that then has to be passed into law which gives the Labour Party the opportunity to put in lots and lots of amendments to try and mitigate the damage from Johnson's disastrous deal and then it means that you get the stage set yet again for another showdown in terms of a meaningful vote that presumably would be the final time but I don't think anyone would confidently predict that that would be the final time just because it's happened on so many different occasions I think in that period the other thing that you might see is Nigel Farage waking from his slumber to really savage the deal and so I think you could find that if there is this period of time every day that passes from tomorrow that Johnson hasn't won a meaningful vote I think it makes it harder and harder and harder for him to win a vote if it comes back to the Commons again. So we respect the let-win amendment so that might pass tomorrow and that takes away some of the urgency to this but there is always going to be even if that passes there's going to be legislation that comes back to Parliament in the next couple of weeks in quite a short period of time. Is that that requires that legislation then to come forward? Yeah but that means the showdown will just be put off right so there's still going to be this question of party management within the Labour Party about disciplining MPs and whether or not they are able to allow to what punishment they will suffer if they vote through a Boris Johnson style Brexit we have heard from the top of the party last or yesterday it was it was made clear to journalists that Labour MPs would not lose the whip if they vote for Boris Johnson's deal tomorrow we could presume that might be the case if when legislation comes back in a week or so this has been jumped on by Labour's competitors when it comes to parties seeking the remain vote we can get up a tweet from Nicola Sturgeon so she said this morning understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday oh no sorry this is what the BBC journalist said understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday then Sturgeon says hope I'm wrong but I have a real suspicion that Labour would be quite happy to see this deal go through they will officially oppose but give nod to rebels to ensure numbers there to pass it will be the end of them in Scotland if they do end up facilitating Brexit I suppose two questions do you see that the Labour leadership is trying to give the nod to back benches to pass this deal so that Brexit can be over and they can move on to other issues and I suppose if not they're leaving an open goal by not being as hard on Labour MPs as they possibly could be and this is just a gift to the SNP to the Lib Dems and other parties that want to put themselves forward as the voice of remain and Labour is ultimately the party that betrays Remainers I mean I hope I'm wrong but you know I think like you know I really hope I'm wrong like Nicola Sturgeon I hope my cat isn't a dog I have a suspicion it might be a dog even though it looks like a cat and you know has been a cat all his life it's I mean it's this bizarre conspiracy kind of mindset from Nicola Sturgeon that kind of thought a bit better off it's a very kind of very very bizarre FPP style thing that you know claims that Corbyn secretly did Brexit and all this sort of nonsense that completely ignores the fact that Labour had been very very consistent about whipping against all of the kind of you know Tory Brexit mayhem that's been going on for the last few months but there's also this very very peculiar thing where after after Boris Johnson expelled the Tory rebels who voted for the Ben for you know for the Ben Act rather than reel back from the shock of that and the fact that that was a very very extreme reaction to rebelling you know normally people rebelled and the whips would wander around and say well you can say goodbye to a ledger centre in your constituency or like the party or you're not going to get a promotion you won't be able to rise up the party and now the standard has been set which is that if you don't kick them out of the party you secretly actually want them to rebel if you know if you want Boris Johnson to open a supermarket in your constituency then those hopes are gone but you know Boris Johnson toss and summarily out of the party and everybody was very very shocked by it they said it was very brutal very extreme and then all of a sudden that's become the new normal that's a new expectation and if Corbyn McDonald don't you know essentially threatened to throw these people into the Thames then they are seen as basically being you know the midwives of Brexit it's very extreme and you know and both Corbyn McDonald said in different ways that they are looking very very deeply at how to get these people on side but that for both of them their leadership style is very very different to just kicking people at the party you know Corbyn pointed out that he wants to have a much more conversational leadership style he wants to listen to people make the final say but try and bring people on board and John McDonald on the Radio 4 Today program said that I can't remember which one Ronnie Campbell yeah so he was asked about Ronnie Campbell and how Ronnie Campbell was going to vote for Boris's deal and John McDonald said look I you know I know Ronnie Campbell and I'm going to say to him look you're a good socialist come on board and I'll have a very very long conversation with him about how we can bring him on side and that seems to be a much more healthy attitude it was a bit unhelpful that Ronnie Campbell was the only Labour MP in the Newsnight studio last night in terms of Labour trying to win back Romanus I've been picking up today is that that both Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald are personally ringing the late the way hitting the phones ringing the way for him and and saying to them you know please don't vote for this deal these are the reasons why and and and I think that's having having an effect but this kind of these kind of conspiracy theories are really quite quite bizarre not least because why on earth would it be in Labour's interest to see an anti-working class deal get through led by Boris Johnson who would merge triumphant because he delivered the ERG agenda now having said that I do think it is a very serious matter for these Labour MPs who are considering doing this I mean if you were to imagine it was 1979 and a small group of Labour MPs were able to stop Mrs Thatcher before she got and started and instead they said well you've got to respect the 1979 Gember election result so we're going to vote with Mrs Thatcher to allow her to unleash this assault on workers rights I think from the vantage point of 10 years or 20 years or 30 years on you'd look back and say you know that was one of the most colossal errors in political history and I think really MPs now have a real choice do they really want to unleash that and what will be the consequences for them personally because actually I don't think this is really a question of the whip anymore or about booting them out and and all of that but do they really want to spend the rest of their political lifetimes as pariahs in the Labour Party you know speaking on panels with Kate Hoey and Paul Embry or or do they want a future in the Labour Party where they they are seen to have stood in solidarity with the rest of the Labour movement so I think given the threat to working people of this deal I think the Labour Party as a social movement will be very unforgiving of those MPs that choose to vote with the Tories and the question about the mechanics of do they keep the whip or not misses the bigger point here about if they break solidarity what will be the consequences for them I think you actually have to go further and I think that it's not just about their political life I think you actually have to appeal to their conscience and say look if you if like if you turn around as a Labour MP and say look I'm in a very very leave constituency I'm worried about the next election and worried about whether or not I can actually you know get over the finishing line next time you are you are going to have to deal with the effects of this vote you are going to deal with the effects of Brexit for the rest of your life and every you know will know how you voted and you know unfortunately like you do go into Parliament and it is a big burden it is a massive responsibility and you have to accept the fact that you actually have you know the fate of millions of people's lives in your hands and you have to go up in good conscience and vote for what you think will harm the least people not what you think will get you elected next time think less about what your job means next time and think more about what will actually what it will actually mean for you know for for people in the future think about how many how many how many people's lives will be harmed how many people will lose their jobs how many people will lose their lives my friend was murdered like by the new IRA earlier in this year you know these things will keep happening people will die people have died from austerity and you know I think a lot of Lib Dems and Tories should have that on their conscience and this should be you know on the same level if not higher than that yeah I just don't think it during the referendum campaign in 2016 I don't think any lead voters well no that's not true there will be some lead voters but very few lead voters thought that they were signing up for more globalization more exposure to international competition fewer manufacturing jobs fewer work rights in the workplace a trade deal with Donald Trump that puts the NHS on the table and the trade negotiations the possibility of matching US employment rights which means your boss can fire you on the spot for no reason 10 days annual leave no maternity pay no sick pay I don't think that lead voters were signing up for that vision of the future and so I find it very hard to hear the message from these labor MPs saying well my constituents wanted Brexit and I think yes they may have voted to leave but I don't think they voted for anything that looked like this version of leave not not in the slightest in any case John Lansman is taking a slightly harder approach to MPs who might vote against the whip then Jeremy Corbyn it seems we can get up John Lansman's tweet so he's on the NEC and he is saying that Johnson's deal will be a wrecking ball through the lives and well-being of ordinary people across Britain labor MPs cannot and must not vote for it if they do the NEC will have no choice but to replace them with a new socialist labor candidate at the next election his comrade on the NEC Hood Elmi friend of the show says it's pretty basic being a labor MP means opposing the Tories when they try to destroy our country this reckless sellout deal is even worse than Theresa May's and any labor MP that sides with Boris Johnson has no right to stand at the next election so it could be the case that whilst rebelling against the labor-free line whip in this particular vote tomorrow or whenever the legislation comes comes back in the future will not lose you the labor party whip but it will lose you your right to stand at the next general election because the NEC will take away their consent for you to be a labor candidate I just want to go on to one more issue before going to audience questions which is a people's vote I've been hearing very mixed messages about what the plan is so we know that the labor party is is somewhat undecided about whether they want a second referendum before or after a general election which means they haven't quite committed to whether or not they would vote for an amendment which ratifies Boris Johnson's deal on the condition that it's put to the public we're also hearing now that even the people's vote campaign themselves are not particularly keen to put a people's vote or a public vote amendment onto Boris Johnson's deal and pass it on the condition that it would go back to the people what's going on what are they thinking in Chukka Amana and John McDonald one or the other said that they would obviously like it to go back to people at you know certain points but this wasn't the time that essentially Saturday had to be about rejecting Boris Johnson's deal and so it was quite simple and why is this not the time well my understanding is that the way it's expected to work tomorrow is that there are two motions the first motion is on Boris Johnson's disastrous deal and that will be left the main amendment on that is the let-win amendment about waiting for the withdrawal agreement bill to be passed past legislative stages the second motion that we expect tomorrow is on no deal and this is where Johnson is expected to say well emotion regarding no deal and and I think it is quite possible that they put down an amendment to the no deal motion saying that there should be a people's a people's vote as it's called or a second referendums I think and you think there are the numbers in this parliament to make that happen I mean because potentially I mean you could have a very strange situation if Boris can't pass this deal which is that you could have no majority in parliament for the deal no majority for a people's vote and not a big enough majority for a general election because obviously you need two-thirds so if there's a one-third blocking minority for a general election we could have a complete parliamentary stalemate no you couldn't because then you would have to go back to you'd have to like you know you could have some majority when you had a form government etc while you can explain yeah so so I don't think there's a majority for a second referendum at the moment I think that's in part because it's very obvious that the public is sick and tired of Brexit and therefore I don't think right now there's a sense that it's got the votes in parliament that could change who knows in that situation that you describe you're right you could get to a stalemate and the stalemate would be the deal fails there is not a majority for a second referendum the blocking minority the one-third blocking minority is on a dissolution of parliament which is where you go to a general election so you need a two-thirds majority to get to a dissolution however the leader of the opposition but only the leader of the opposition can table a vote of no confidence in the government so it would depend so if that blocking minority contained Jeremy Corbyn then you could get a complete stalemate but if Jeremy Corbyn said I want to have an election then he could end up the way that you could get through it would be for Tory MPs to back a motion of no confidence in their own government along with whoever was being loyal on the Labour on the Labour front bench helping it through but it's a very messy route through it of course the final option is whether there's a majority to repeal the fixed term Parliament's Act which would be another route to addressing that but I agree it I think Labour you know is pretty clear it wants a general election it wants a general election it want a general election I think probably next week what maybe it will want to get maybe it will want to get the withdrawal agreement legislation through or something like that but you know Labour is pretty consistent that it wants general election it's just about making sure that it's taking no deal off the table so we don't end up in disaster are you both strongly in favour of general election before a second referendum yeah absolutely you are absolutely I just think moving to a second referendum I think that I think if you move to a second referendum for a general election then you will just replicate what happened last time you're asking people to vote again with nothing really new whereas if you ask people to you know move to general election you're saying do you have conferences government or not what do you want a different government whereas you know I think the Labour position is very clear and it's very very smart and contrary to what media say it's very easy to understand you can explain it in two seconds it's like it does change quite a lot to be fair I haven't noticed it I don't think it's that no complicated at all no it's like we want a general election and then we'll negotiate a deal and we'll put that to the public yeah I mean have you got that me oh no he wasn't listening I'm collecting questions it gets to the point where actually you don't listen to you because I'm looking at audience questions you know there's only one person I'm more interested in listening to you don't not person people like the Tiskey sour audience is the Tiskey sour comments sections you're the only people who can distract me from your delightful insight election we win and then we negotiate but obviously there's many people on the front bench you want a second referendum first which means that sometimes I have to say that first the first problem with it is that actually there's no majority for it the second problem is what would actually be there beyond the referendum so do you really want a referendum between things that are undesirable like no deal or this disastrous Johnson deal but the third problem is if you don't have the legitimacy for a referendum then what if leave voters just said they weren't going to participate yeah and they said we're not going to show up and we respect the 2016 vote so I think this idea that you can jump straight into a second referendum is not very clever the final bit is of course if you want to win a second referendum the best way to win a second referendum is to pass an anti-austerity budget to show to the country that you can improve ordinary people's lives and then say to people well here's a referendum on Brexit do you want us to carry on with the business of making your life better improving your public services and so on or do you want us to go back into the Brexit hellstorm that we've been in for the last three years so I can't see why it's either feasible or desirable to have a second referendum first if you have a second if you have a second referendum first all you're doing is saying to every single person who voted leave and that's a lot of people that I grew up with that you that you know if like if you have a general election in between two referendums then people think it's new government and there's a new deal we're voting differently they can understand it if you turn around and have a second referendum back to back you're essentially saying to everybody who voted leave we didn't trust you last time we don't think you made the right decision can you have another go and as some said either they won't participate or they come out an even greater number and like I disagree with Tom in that like I think that one of the big issues with a lot of the discussion post referendum has been that over and over again remain voters and remain campaigners have talked about you know the economic risks that come from a no deal Brexit saying nobody voted to be poorer and it's like actually maybe some people did maybe some people were actually perfectly happy for things to get worse because their life were pretty crap anyway and actually they didn't feel that they had a huge amount of control over it and you know maybe maybe if they changed the mechanisms and if they felt that they had more of a say in the way that the community was run if they were at you know if they actually did have some distance from Europe they were perfectly happy to do it Gary Young wrote really good people to the Guardian which you know a lot of people wouldn't really engage with because it doesn't play into the argument they like but actually a lot of people that I went to school with a lot of people that I knew growing up you know they voted knowing that they would probably get poorer but this is an argument against the second referendum in general so for me why why having a second referendum on Boris's deal versus remain would make sense because if your concern is abstention yeah then it's actually no a very soft Brexit which is what labeled off a versus remain which to me risks having the most people I know who voted leave in 2016 also voted Labour in 2017 because they liked Labour's manifesto so if you have something different on offer they will go for it if you have a Labour government and Labour government yeah if you have a Labour government and Labour government and saying I want more money in the NHS I want your kids to have a better school that makes a lot more sense and so the then basically saying could you do it again because we think you got it wrong last time so anti-austerity budget yeah let's let's have some more questions oh we haven't had any of your questions actually yet so almas almas quach asks would passing this deal help or hinder Labour's election prospects passing it would completely scupper it I would struggle to see to do devil's advocate there is an argument that I've seen that I don't particularly agree with it which is that if Brexit gets done then that is when Labour can move on and have a general election on issues that aren't related to Brexit which are you know our economic policy is quite popular our Brexit policy is is a little bit convoluted and it divides our base so therefore if it just happens but the leadership can keep their hands relatively clean then we can go into a general election just fighting on nationalising rail and on anti-austerity and on having workers are really stupid because that devil assumes that Boris Johnson won't get a big bounce from them being delivered being the man who delivered Brexit and he won't get a pole bands and that also also that Labour don't care about what happens to voters in in the meantime like you know even if it passes and you know we move into a general election 2022 what happens to people who like I use the energy yes a lot I know a lot of people live in poverty what happens to people need social housing like do we just forget about them for three years and just hope for the best I mean I also think just I'm going to throw it out there and suggest that handling a massive generational victory to the right is probably not good for the left I don't think in this it's particularly complicated if it had been different if this had been Theresa May's deal which the right hated for various reasons you might have been able to see the rationale of that argument saying well they all hate it they all think it's bad it's gone through Labour could be the beneficiaries I wasn't completely persuaded by the argument but it had some degree of persuasiveness if the ERG really think that this is such a great deal because they get to deregulate and do a trade deal with Donald Trump how could that possibly be good for for the Labour Party and I think you're seeing that in terms of the way that the Labour leadership are approaching this doing everything they can to try and stop this deal going through the Financial Times has just said that they think it's going to pass with a majority 319 to 315 is their forecast right now it's how they think it's going to go but I think we just simply at this point that that to me is basically too close to call Tom Walland is channeling the guy in the audience on question time is there an argument to be made for unification of Ireland to solve Brexit and have a Lexit I mean I don't know if the guy in the audience at question time wanted a Lexit but what do you think about that particular argument solve the problem of the Irish border but I mean I don't think the timescale works does it I think Ireland should be unified but I also think that you know Britain should be socialist and you know I'm perfectly happy for Ireland I basically a border poll has come in Ireland and we know that's going to happen but we also need to actually win a socialist majority in Britain and that will need a lot of work at the moment you know I I don't think as I've heard some people I think I think it's pretty clear you know I think everybody here would agree that Irish unification is coming and that's fine it's going to happen but not on their own timescale right and I to solve obviously probably also Irish unification doesn't really change much about British politics per se so the big issue that Labour really need to address is probably kind of Wales and Scotland so stop in the rise of you know Plaid Cymru in the SNP trying to make sure that there's a socialist majority in Wales Scotland and making sure that like we keep a lot of those seats so you know there's a lot of work to be done there I don't see how you know Irish unification would kind of solve anything but equally like I want Labour to I think if I think if Scotland went independent it would be a big issue if Scotland went independent essentially you have England and Wales tied together and you know if if if Ireland hopefully becomes unified if Scotland goes independent you have England and Wales tied together and then you essentially have a Tory majority for forever I mean if you do then yeah I mean I just take a defeatist we can win England to take your viewers question though I still don't understand how sorting out the question of Northern Ireland would enable a lexit to be delivered by a hard right Tory government there's always been the problem I have with this idea of lexit is that I don't understand in which particular way anyone ever thought that a right-wing government was going to deliver a left-wing Brexit it just just say if this deal passes and then Labour win the next general election can the the features of this deal be refashioned by a Labour government who's a wreck who's negotiating the future trading relationships to create a lexit this is my issue with lexit over and over again as Tom said Brexit is a hard right project like just trying to tack on to it as part of the left and saying it's fine it's fine it's fine we're winning 2022 what about everybody else in the meantime we can win there might be a general election in a month yeah but six weeks yeah but if Boris Johnson wins it's not if Boris Johnson wins this deal there is no need for a general election if Boris Johnson wins his win wins this deal even if he calls one he'll probably win it so I mean I again Brexit is a hard right project and I just don't understand any leftist who tries to tack on to it and thinks that they can somehow kind of steer it steer it out of the wall once what once you crashed it in there once you've opened this kind of worms you have forage you have the far right you have everybody just like you know paying for blood and you think that you can kind of push that back in that absolute nonsense okay fine could that I think you both think there couldn't be a referendum on this deal so so I did stop asked could there be a referendum on this deal there isn't numbers there aren't the numbers rather I mean there could be but like at what point of the People's Vote campaign give up when Brexit's happened I suppose people's passes on Saturday the people's vote campaign give up when Corbynism gives up because they don't actually care about with our policy like I mean every time I've met People's Vote campaigners they have cared more about stopping Brexit stopping Corbyn they have cared about stopping Brexit they are more than half you know they like I regularly speak to them and they generally think they can win Tories around but like they think it's unconscionable they would that you know that they would ever speak to Labour they're utterly convinced like these weird kind of you know brain worm Putin people who are convinced that everything is run from the Kremlin like all this weird conspiracy so I think if we actually do leave I think there will be two things that will happen to the People's Vote campaign part of it I think will turn into a demand for a referendum to return and that will appeal to probably 10 or 15% of the population who are kind of really into FBPE they they almost certainly in fact they definitely already vote Lib Dem that they're not going to be voting for anyone else I think anytime anytime soon and that's what parts of the People's Vote campaign I think will become partly because you just got the kind of micro level interests of this is now someone's people now feel that they have a job of being an anti-Brexit campaigner and they want a job if we leave the European Union and so they immediately say well I'm going to dedicate my life to the cause of getting Britain back into the EU partly because it provides continuity of employment I think the second thing that will happen to the People's Vote campaign is that part of it will turn into effectively the leadership campaign for a candidate of the on the sort of moderate right wing part of the Labour Party to try and take back control of Labour would be my would be my guess I mean I don't know that for sure but I've already spoken to three prominent FBPE type People's Vote campaigners who have said that once they stop full-time campaigning for this sort of thing they're going to go for Lib Dem leadership so yeah I think let's end it there we need some rest before tomorrow watching and commenting on the special parliamentary session potentially if it's dramatic enough we might have that evening but if there's if there's a kind of an emergency there's an anti-climax and the let-win amendment passes and it's just like they've kicked it into the long grass we probably don't need a shot to tell you that they've kicked into the long grass we'll just tweet they've kicked it into long grass tune in to Tiskey sound next week but if something incredibly dramatic happens and either the deal passes or or I think if it gets voted down that's also quite dramatic right it's only the let-win amendment that makes it not dramatic so actually unless the let-win amendment passes we will have a Tiskey sour tomorrow evening but but you should also support the let-win amendment passing so lobby your MP lobby your MP so I don't have to do a Tiskey sour tomorrow thank you Dawn Foster always a pleasure thank you Tom Kibassi wonderful to have you in lovely to be here you have been watching Tiskey sour you've been watching Navarra Media as you know this show is only possible because if you're kind support if you are already a subscriber thank you very much if not please go to support dot Navarra Media dot com and donate the equivalent of one hours wage a month like this video tweet this video share it on Facebook I don't keep your comments coming because we're going offline but you can keep commenting under the video see you when I see ya