 He is the author of the Orde Oracle newsletter. This is orde-oracle.com Go give him a check out to Really gets into the nitty-gritty of these kind of different interactions between the indices and has Established a pretty good track record for himself Tim ord Tim, how are you doing today? Good. Good. Thanks for having me on again. Absolutely. Absolutely Well, let's take a look at what we got going on today. We had the looking at the XAU in gold Yeah, XAU Got a quite few questions from my clientele and they kind of so I'm gonna go through and we're gonna start from the bigger picture And we're gonna work backwards or down to the smaller picture. Okay, so the first chart The middle window is the monthly XAU gold ratio and it goes all the way back to 1986 This this chart works pretty well picking out the bigger time frames bigger bottoms and all those blue lines across there show the times when actually When that one of them when a bicycle is triggered a out the bottom window is a monthly slow stochastic Or the X for the monthly XAU gold ratio and when it gets below minus 10 Are actually be plus 10 and turns up usually you're setting at a major low and We had that happen back in August 2022 As I said I said on your show a lot of times Yeah, I think that August of 2022 was an important low and this is one of the reasons why I say that and I got some other Actually, I got about four or five different chart patterns to actually say this same thing that August 2022 was probably important low So anyhow, even though the market has made a low back in August We haven't really broke that low. We've been consoling here last couple of months, but Anyhow, that's on a buy signal Since August 2022 low and go to chart to So this is the the middle window is the weekly XAU gold chart and the same time the monthly gave a buy signal the weekly also gave a buy signal and How that's bicyclists triggered is when the RSI of the weekly XAU ratio gets below 30 And that happened back in, you know, I think July and September the two times kind of did a double buy there and And since then the market has rallied up Some over about six months and basically over the last six months is pretty much gone sideways as far as the XAU concern But those two signals are still on a buy signal and we can't go to chart number three, okay, and Here's another method. This is the the middle window is a silver-gold ratio And I usually use the gold-silver ratio I flipped it around as a silver-gold ratio just because it kind of goes up and down with the XAU way out the top window is the XAU Next window down is the RSI For the silver-gold ratio, which is the middle window window below that is the rate of change On a 12th period for the XA for the monthly a silver-gold ratio in the bottom window is a percent volume Percent Bollinger Band for the silver-gold ratio So this is a monthly chart again, and the chart goes back to look like about 1986 also But when they are psi or actually two of the three indicators That's either the RSI the rate of change and percent Bollinger Band at least two If not all three give a give a buy signal last time that got a buy signal was August 2022 So it currently is on a buy signal too So that's three different longer-term methods that all gave a buy signal around the August 2022 So in my opinion the bigger time frames are still up. We haven't broke the August 2022 low But we have consolidated For what since last September for about last nine months. We really haven't done a lot of anything So the bigger picture looks bullish. We do think we're at an important low But we really haven't done anything here over the Several month period. So I start looking at that the shorter term time frames which is Chart four chart for so chart four is the RSI for inflation deflation ratio Right, okay, and yeah, that's the weekly time frame so At the top window is the RSI For the weekly inflation deflation ratio when it gets below 30 and all those blue lines across your show times when that Bicycle was triggered and that was triggered. I Think in October of this year. We had a minor October low that triggered that low we ran up and We're kind of back down again what I want to point out oh as though is when the Weekly inflation deflation ratio Closes above the upper or lower Bollinger band It's usually at a bottom that happened at the October low and it's again happening right now Which is that far right to the window there? You can see that that ratio is closing below the lower Bollinger band And it's also bearish when it closes above the upper Bollinger band, which is noted in red across the graph So that's kind of on a bi-single right now The RSI is not giving a signal but the Bollinger band is So on a weekly time frame, that's that's also bullish. So let's flip to chart number five So we're getting down this now. We're getting down to the daily time frames. So the weekly inflation deflation Bollinger band penetration given a buy this Chart the top window is the RSI for the inflation deflation ratio next window down is a daily deep The daily inflation deflation ratio So when the RSI of the daily inflation deflation ratio gets below 30, which it did last week Then closes above 30 and stays above 30. It's a bi-single less happened last week I think I might have pointed that out in my chart last week. Can't remember but it's on a bi-single on the daily time frame So at least on a short term on your midterm or actually on a longer term scale I think the August 2022 low was an important low on a short term scale. We're giving a bi-single right now Where this bi-single will determine? What this short term bi-single would determine what happens next in the market will be just another Three or four week rally or will be a multi-month right now a multi-year rally And that's what's determined in the future here, and I know we're gonna come up on a Yeah, we're very close to the break right now. I'll save that for the next next update Yeah, and it would be nice happening, but it seems like it's just very slowly happening here Right so and that's what that's what we've been seeing just like as you said for for months now And just trying to get some action in the GDX You know you had some you know interesting movement the GDS kind of gap down a little bit a few days ago Then came right back up what you kind of expected it with the general like marking conditions But really getting something that's gonna spur it and have it run is gonna be phenomenal, uh, Tim Please stay right there. We'll be right back Welcome back folks. This is Jacob Schup filling in for Tom O'Brien. We're with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle Tim, how are you doing? I think we left off on chart five or six Five actually perfect just a quick comment The daily inflation-deflation ratio RSI last week closed below 30 Right now we're 3190 so it's closing above 30. So probably over the last several days At a minimum or at least at a short term low. So here's it. So anyhow We're at a short term low. I think on on GDX and the next couple of charts Will determine what happens next how that how the potential current rally will last will last a couple of weeks If it does that then they'll probably stall the Longer-term uptrend is what I'm saying anyhow the chart number six okay, the middle window is the monthly HUI gold ratio and Normally when this ratio is rising gold stocks are outperforming gold That's what happens in uptrends in the gold market and gold stocks when that when that ratio is heading down It's usually a berry sign for gold and gold stocks If you notice gave a The red lines are when it closed below as mid-bollinger band the blue lines are Closes above the mid-bollinger band And it gave a sell signal back in 2021 it didn't come exactly at the top because it's this is not really designed To catch the exact tops and bottoms is designed to catch the trend of the market So even though the the bottom may have been August 2022 this ratio has not turned up yet But we're still close to the lows if it does far as the XAU is concerned or HUI, but to really get a confirmation That the gold stocks have started a started a multi-month If not a multi-year rally is when this ratio closes above the mid-bollinger band and so far It hasn't yet even though the market's up a little bit higher than August this ratio is more or less gone sideways since looks like about Mid well it's like about August 2022 it pretty much created sideways gone up a little bit gone down a little bit But it's pretty much unchanged as August 2022 The what's important here though? What what seems to be happening if you notice the bollinger bands are starting to squeeze on that ratio? Yes, so the ratio really hasn't moved at all Reveal speaking since August 2022 the bot or the second window up from the bottom is the as as that That that that determines The narrowness of the bollinger bands and so when this is at a low level Or when the bollinger bands squeeze together that That chart but right below it will become at a low level. We're pretty at a low level right now I see matching what happened back in pretty close to 2019 and There's another place to go in 22. So what that predicts is Usually when there's low volatility when the bollinger bands squeeze together It'll anticipate high volatility and that's what's probably coming in front of us When will it come we'll come in the next several months or maybe wait till next year. I don't know But it is saying that that ratio is it becoming more will become more volatile in the coming Month since it's the monthly chart so Well, we like to see the current Central rally that's giving a bicycle right now a short term on GDX HUI and XAU is for this For the rally to continue if that rally continues Most likely this ratio will go up and close above the mid bollinger band And but does that Then it predicts at a minimum will be at least a year rally because if you go back and measure the times between those Red lines and blue lines to the least a year Matter-of-fact the last time he gave a cell signal was August 2021, which is over three years ago So and it has been on a cell signal since so we get above the mid bollinger band that predict a multi Month it's not a multi-year rally. That's probably what's coming. It's the deal is it hasn't closed above the mid bollinger band yet You know So that's reason why the current rally needs to rally at least my opinion probably two months But does that that probably will close above the mid bollinger band or off to the races right on and put yeah so That's what I'm looking for for nine. Let's go to chart seven. Sure Here's another way another way to look at it the middle window is the monthly GDX The top window is a monthly cumulative up-down volume And so it it also gave a cell signal back in Looks like January 2021 and it's still below its mid bollinger band This is what the top windows the up-down volume and the bottom window is the advanced decline Keep them advanced decline. I did a bollinger band with those those two indicators Need to close above the mid bollinger band to give a multi month. It's not a multi-year rally So two different methods kind of saying the same thing here both of them are still below mid bollinger bands But most probably if one closes above it probably the whole thing will and I'll probably predict a rally That'd be at least similar to the 2016 low if not to 2019 low because would we break out of this? kind of a downtrend Consolidation that's what going on to that 21 so But we need a rally that lasts is at least a couple of months for those two type Indicators to close above the mid bollinger band. So I'm hoping the current right this current bicycle Look at last say into April Ideally May that would probably submit the idea that these would give a multi month signal It's going to happen It's not sooner or later, but it hasn't happened right now. So that's what we're kind of looking for So things are extremely cheap here. Sure, but Momentum needs to turn up and these are two type longer-term momentum indicators and once they turn up They usually stay up. They're not like go up and down Back and forth use these they start one direction and they go to direction at least a year, you know Sometimes two or three years. So that's what's sitting in front of us, you know The the deal is was August the 2022 a low a major low, which I think it was and they get that Momentum for all gold stocks to go up and said just a few we need these two type indicators And so far, you know You gotta you gotta say, you know when I don't know I I think I thought it would happen sooner than what it has but they got right back up the mid-bowl in Japan Both these two indicators I'm talking about right now back and I think in November or December of last year I'm thinking we're on our way. Well, it turned back down again So will this next rally get above it, you know, it could if it does then as it's probably a multi-year Rally and for all gold stocks and and prop is most likely silver stocks. So Absolutely, you know, that's the bigger picture of what's going on here. So yeah, and I'm gonna post these charts in the den I mean, I think six was really kind of insightful. I'm gonna post all these in the den and Tim I I know we only have a short time left here in the segment We did have a one of our listeners John Belaya. He asked a what your thoughts are on the TLT Veevix ratio currently, I don't know if you have anything at the moment if you address it Thursday or something like that, but Yeah, we actually let's take a look at it Thursday. Perfect. That sounds great. We'll do it We got that because we don't have a time to do it. Definitely. We'll talk to you about it. Wonderful. Well, Tim Thank you so much. That was phenomenal. Again. I really like chart six. All these were great. Thank you so much You bet. Talk to you then. Absolutely. And again, that was Tim Ord of the Ord hyphen oracle dot com go check him out Phenomenal stay right there