 Hi Daniel, thank you for the question a brilliant brilliant question and it really shows that you're you know searching deeper, you know for the fundamentals and You say hello trading 180 I have watched your videos about fundamental analysis And I can tell you know what you are saying and make sense But you got a question from 2017 until 2018 the euro dollar increased in value But when you checked the GDP inflation interest rates Dollar seemed a bit more bullish and it was the question is did you miss analyze you didn't you didn't and I'm gonna show you exactly Why but or was it the cause for or what was the cause for that yearly uptrend and I'm gonna break it down for you If you read this, thank you for your time. You really appreciate it. No worries me and You know, I hope you're in you are enjoying the group now So what you were saying was is that? United States and we look at for example inflation, right and around 2017 2018 we had You know decent inflation above 2% inflation The euro area at the time as well inflation wise was going was moving towards the 2% as well So 2017 2018 it's tied, you know moving towards the highs. So you're like, you know, but the US is definitely more bullish Then the then the then the euro. Yeah We also had a bit. I think a bit of an uptick when it came to, you know, GDP growth rate as well but the main reason for the The the bullishness what you mean is this is that is this period here Price chart Yeah, is that bullishness there? Remember, we were in a range pretty much from Eyes to the lows are probably around here to here. It's up until that point Here was where the range would have been Sorry, excuse me. I've got a bit of a a head cold again Yeah, surprises within this range and then what we had was and Google was a brilliant tool is and if you weren't trading I don't I wouldn't expect you to really You know and like know this and do this but I was trading at the time So I know exactly why this was happening and the It was basically the rumors that the European Central Bank, right? We'll start to exit from its QE Program so that was October 26 7 2017 so You know winding down the QE the enormous bond purchases many central banks have undertaken since the financial crisis is a delicate operation so Reducing QE. Yeah increasing QE is basically weakening the currency by reducing QE it potentially obviously should strengthen the the currency because of the fact that they don't necessarily need to They they're already achieving their inflation targets, right? So we go back to inflation inflation was actually heading up Yeah towards that 2% target right central bank target right there. Yeah, so As they were getting back towards that 2% target. It was like well What what do we need to you know do QE for if you know I mean there's no need so we can kind of reduce it So it was really a buy the rumor sell the news and again This was gold. Yes, right JP Morgan, right? So this was December the night for December 2016 So ECB to reduce QE from April 2017. So JP Morgan, you know written a report That was very bullish for the for the euro hence When you see this so from 2016, you know from April the rumor was that they were going to so JP Morgan We're way ahead ahead of time and they were probably buying into you know a selling market But even though, you know, the US dollar was doing decent the bigger news was that the euro Was potentially coming out of their QE which basically meant that you know, they were probably gonna see some sort of growth now at the same time There was rumors and there was I guess Stories going around that even though the Fed were hiking rates There was low growth and equals a recession says stock market strategist Yeah, and this was what March 2017. So one analyst has very pessimistic view of the Fed's latest move So the Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted the benchmark rate Which is always positive for a currency for only the third time in about a decade and has caused trepidation among some market participants last Robert's chief investment strategist a clarify financial Makes the case in one chart that raising interest rates of Ultra low levels during a period of tepid economic growth Coincides with recession in the following three to nine months So you can imagine, you know that this is obviously going around the market So, you know, what are the Fed doing? They don't know what they're doing You know, this is potentially going to you know cause a recession for the US You know for America March 17, which is probably around, you know This time here some March 17, but this is when the room has started and you could start to see now and I mean fundamentals are And they can be it's not set in stone like it's a probable. It's a probabilistic game Yeah, and no one knows for sure 100% what is going to happen You have moments where there are risk sentiment there are you know things that go against the fundamentals Yeah, like you're not wrong in your analysis. I'm not wrong in my analysis It's just, you know price can do what it wants. Nobody can control Prices and rumors and the emotions So if rumors that there was a US recession potentially coming yeah around here and then you had the The European central bank talking about reducing their QE Strengthening their euro Etc. This is you know the the Result of that of those rumors some rumors can be really big some rumors can be you know, maybe just short-lived etc but this is basically, you know, what was what's happening at the time and You know happened from 2017 all the way into 2018 so happened for this was the rumor for a year There are some trade ideas that can last for months and it's some trade ideas that can last for a good few years So my trade idea my trade idea When prices were around here was to get short still get short on the euro anyway, because once things started turning around You know, there was still negotiations regarding Brexit, you know and all of that kind of stuff my trade idea to short the euro right still was You know was valid and it lasted it's been lasting for the past You know a few years whereas this trade idea Lasted maybe a year or two. Was there some losses in here? Cool. Yep. There's probably maybe some losses or maybe some break-even trades, etc. There was maybe, you know Bit of wins here, maybe etc. etc. But Eventually the trade idea, you know to short the euro played out to go along the euro based off of QE being, you know reduced Just goes to show you how powerful by the rumors. So the fact is Yeah, so you're not wrong in your analysis. You're definitely not wrong in your analysis when it comes to the data, but This is a major event there are the reduction of QE because when they introduced QE Yeah, when they introduced QE was somewhere around 2013 somewhere around here So when they introduced QE Look at what happened. This is pretty much, you know What happened then obviously you had I think you had Gregg's it around here grease exit Around here but the point being is that quantitative easing at the time was kind of like unprecedented if you know, I mean central bank intervention was unprecedented So you had this large Move down and if you had that one trade idea Brilliant, you would have made thousands of pips If you had the trade idea that you know the the the the euro was going to get stronger against You know the dollar not only the dollar but other currencies as well because they're reducing QE This would have would have been a great trade that trade idea Trade idea, you know is that you know, there's Brexit on the horizon The dollar is you know still the strongest currency not going into recession the rumors were actually unfounded Yeah about the US going into a recession. It didn't materialize. Yeah So although this guy was doing all the analysis. It didn't a recession didn't actually materialize under, you know, Donald Trump And then the the euro was going into a potential recession uncertainty around Brexit Then it was just about finding supply zones too short. Yeah, so Again, you're not wrong Definitely you're on the right track and well done. I'm glad you asked that question and That I could explain it to you. So anyone who tells you yeah, anyone who tells you that fundamentals and risk sentiment doesn't work Nonsense. Yeah price does not end it's not it's not always a reflection of value and value is not always reflected in price We have to you know Be a bit more Aware of what's going on from the central bankers because they're the smartest guys in the room at the end of the day Yeah, all the options traders the financial institutions. Those are the smart people if you know, I mean and you know We kind of ride on their coattails and see what's going on again We don't have to necessarily trade that trade idea. It would have been a great trade idea But we don't have to trade it, you know, we could just ignore it look for other currency pairs but anyways, sorry for rabbitting on hopefully that makes you know sense and Yeah, it was a bit of fundamentals But there was also a lot of by the rumor if you know, I mean sell the fact Happening in here, which is what was driving prices to do what they were doing. So hopefully that makes sense and Take care and I'll see you in the group. Take care So if what I'm saying resonates with you, why not check out trading 180 comm there is a Selection process to trade my supply and demand zone for X strategy I'm only looking to work with Individuals with the right mindset, you know, who are hard-working as well. So Check that out and access really for less than one pound a day This some of the strategies in here are not for beginners So if you don't know what supply and demand is please check out all of my Supply and demand videos. I have hundreds of videos on YouTube. So you can check that out first Guys take care and until the next video. Have a good one