 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen welcome to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. I'm Andrew Schwartz I'm our senior vice president for external relations here a poor substitute for John Hamery who was called away, but nonetheless I'm here We just a couple good housekeeping measures We do this for every event now just because it's the way Washington works if there is an emergency There is emergency exits right out the back here You'll go right out that door and through the door and it'll follow signs back. We'll have staff out there post it And we'll let you know how to get out of here, but we don't expect any problems We're very lucky today to have this program in such a timely series of events Senator Bob Menendez's story is a quintessential American story He grew up the son of Cuban immigrants in a tenement building in Union City, New Jersey and has risen to become One of the most prominent members of the United States Senate He of course served as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the 113th Congress and is now the ranking member We're so fortunate to have senator Menendez here today and to hear from him on this very very timely subject senator Menendez, please Well, thank you Andrew. Good afternoon. I'm sorry that we're starting a few minutes late But the bullet train from Newark to Washington was late, so I I appreciate your patience Let me thank Cicest for inviting me it's a pleasure to share the stage with one of the most distinguished and Accomplished foreign policy Practitioners whose perspective on our strategic dilemma Giving Putin's revisionist Russia will be enlightening so dr. Brzezinski I look forward to hearing your remarks and participating in a discussion with you I think that without any doubt we can all agree on one key point the United States must lead Now there are many experts. I'm sure many here Who would contend that the complexity of the geo politics that led the you to the US's retreat? From Europe created an opening for Putin We know that we must work in close coordination with our European friends in order for the sanctions against Russia to work But I do think there is a greater role for strong American leadership It has never been in our nature to simply observe In my view it is in our strategic interest to be an active participant in leading any effort to counter Russia But I'm concerned that our friends Particularly in Eastern Europe question our resolve We need to send a very clear global message if you violate and upend the international order There will be consequences and we have to mean it when we say it and we have to back up our words with a menu of Agreed upon actions that will follow There should be no ambiguity about either our resolve or what actions we would consider The fact is that there are other actors in the world Who are looking in looking at what is happening in the Ukraine and saying well? What did the United States do? What did the West do to stop Putin's aggression? And at the end of the day if the answer is the West did not do enough Then other actors those who may be more powerful than their neighbors Actors who may have nuclear weapons like North Korea will have the space to think about what they might Want to do we cannot give them that space Whether it's China in the South China Sea that has territorial disputes with our allies South Korea in Japan Or the challenge we face with a nuclear armed North Korea or the challenge of Maduro in Venezuela or pressing his people I could go through a long list of global actors Who in the absence of assured consequence for violating the international order will be emboldened? That is an incredibly risky world to live in That said when it comes to Putin's aggression in Ukraine The administration should fully implement measures in the Ukraine Freedom Support Act Which the president signed into law on December the 18th, and that I helped author the legislation passed with the Unanimous consent in both houses of Congress it authorizes the president to provide much needed military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine And it imposes additional sanctions against Russia this legislation was necessary in December, and it is even more necessary today Implementing it is an important first step, but we also need to address the threat that Russia poses across Europe in a more comprehensive way We need to reinvigorate the institutions that have so long contributed to the transatlantic relationship in peace and stability We need to sharpen our arsenal of response options Then that means NATO and EU integration and adapting them to today's realities And that will require streamlining the cumbersome bureaucratic procedures to bring nations into the Western fold more quickly We need to see t-tip in security terms as it will send a strong message to Putin that the United States and Europe are unified When it comes to energy Europe will never be fully secure unless and until it has energy security We need to do more to support efforts in Europe to increase reverse flow capacity from countries like Poland, Slovakia, Hungary to Ukraine Our friends in northern Europe and the Baltics need help in developing LNG infrastructure Countries across the region, but particularly Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia are vulnerable to Russia's eagerness to use energy as a weapon And our allies in southern Europe also need the energy security provided by LNG infrastructure and pipelines In my view the attention on Europe's east in confronting the threat from Russia has been necessary But we also need to focus on the south Also vulnerable to undue Russian influence We need to strengthen security and economic relationships in the Balkans, especially in Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Bosnia To put it simply the rules that have been put in place since the end of the Cold War in my view no longer apply We need to fundamentally Calibrate our approach to security in Europe and treat the entire region as under threat not just Ukraine In my view we need to stop all force withdrawals from Europe and conduct a review of our force posture The European reassurance initiative is a good first step and we cannot let up this momentum and Congress Should provide a long-term authorization for the initiative We should consider a robust military presence in the Baltics and other threatened states Let Putin know that it's up to him as to how long we stay there in The Baltics and Eastern Europe we should not be thinking in terms of battalions, which are about five or six hundred soldiers We should be tank thinking in terms of brigades, which are three to five thousand soldiers Unfortunately, there is no shortcut to security Now there has been some positive movement in this direction Colonel Michael Foster of the 173rd Airborne Brigade recently said that exercises between US troops with Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, which began last April and will expand through the summer Operation Atlantic Resolve will continue in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland with about 900 soldiers And I understand that this effort could also expand into Hungary the Czech Republic and Georgia, which I would support Our intelligence community also needs to reprioritize the Russian threat Not only addressing the immediate security threat in Ukraine, but across the broad in Europe I understand the administration is working with the Broadcasting Board of Governors to commit $23 million to Russian language programming a 49% increase since fiscal year 14 The State Department has also requested more than 20 million in foreign assistance and public diplomacy funds to counter Russian propaganda through training for Russian-speaking journalists support for civil society watchdogs and independent media exchange programs in access to fact-based news The Russian investment and I've heard this both in my trips when I was in Ukraine last year in the midst of The invasion and other countries that I was there in Poland and Estonia I heard it and since then as they many have come to visit in Washington have told me about the overwhelming Russian propaganda machine that of course is not based in facts And ultimately overwhelms the ability of states in the region to counter it It dwarfs what we have dedicated to the task if we are serious about countering Russian propaganda We need to increase our investments in coordination with the Europeans who should also dedicate resources to these efforts Now there are also reports that the Russian government provides funding for political parties NGOs and think tanks across Europe If this is indeed the case, we need a broader soft power strategy to counter this influence And we should work to leverage our State Department public diplomacy and USAID programming towards that end When it comes to security assistance to the Ukraine We need to urgently increase both the economic and human cost to Putin with tougher sanctions and Provide more assistance to the Ukrainian military The international community simply cannot remain passive in the face of such unbridled aggression that will only invite further aggression US Army Europe Commander Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in a recent speech in Berlin They're providing weapons in Ukraine would not immediately improve Ukraine's defensive capability But it would provide the necessary muscle for a diplomatic solution At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on March the 4th General Dempsey said I think we should absolutely Consider providing lethal aid and it ought to be in the context of our NATO allies NATO allies because Putin's ultimate objective is to fraction NATO The simple fact is we all want a diplomatic solution to this problem But I believe this can only come about When Putin believes that the cost of continuing to ravage Ukraine is simply too high We have a responsibility to increase that cost We are providing night Non-lethal equipment like night vision goggles, and that's all well and good But if I can see the enemy, but I have nowhere with all to stop them It really is not responding to the fundamental challenge Let's provide counter artillery radars tactical troop operated surveillance drones and secure command and communications equipment Let's provide anti-tank and anti-armor weapons crew weapons and ammunition Frankly, I'm disappointed that the administration required to report on its plan for increasing military assistance to Ukraine on February the 15th under the law that was signed has yet to do so and we are awaiting that report in The meantime Putin has used his military power to impose his will in Ukraine But he's also using every economic tool at his disposal and we must do the same It's time in my view to impose additional targeted sanctions on the Russian Economic Center to add to existing sanctions that are already costing the Russian economy about $140 billion per year or about 7% of its economy The administration should tighten restrictions on the development of shale deposits audit drilling and offshore drilling I don't think that we want to use American technology to have a Russian oil shale Revolution and further rehab its grasp Into Europe and elsewhere as a result of it the Ukraine Freedom Support Act call for the administration to impose Sanctions on other defense industry targets as well as on special Russian crude oil projects by January 31st And we are still waiting on the administration's response There are almost 150 individuals and entities on the EU and Canadian sanctions list that are not on the US list the head of the Russian FSB Mr. Bortnikov is the most egregious example the same mr. Bortnikov who was in Washington recently for the CVE conference if there is no Justifiable reason for excluding these individuals. They should be added clearly for the international sanctions effect to be effective We need to be in lockstep with our Canadian and European allies Finally these sanctions are necessary, but the most effective sanction is an economically viable and stable Ukraine Working with our European friends. We need to do all we can to ensure that a March 2nd the Ukrainian Parliament enacted the eight laws required by the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday the IMF executive board should approve the four-year extended fund facility Which will offer Ukraine about 40 billion dollars of credits of which 17 and a half billion is to come from the IMF itself This is a very significant step that will help greatly The US may provide an additional one billion in loan guarantees towards the end of this year on top of the two billion and guarantees Already provided in my view This is a worthy investment and it needs to be matched by continuing reformed by the Ukrainians We are seeing progress on that front the right people are in place and the right laws are being passed But at the end of the day what will matter most is implementation In President Shaskavili's testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee last week He said something worth repeating and I quote It was not a NATO army that stopped the spread of communism It was a collection of strong ideals with an army standing behind it. The same must be true today a Democratic secure Ukraine is the last nation between a revenge on us Russia and America He was right. We need to double down across Eastern Europe in the former Soviet space on efforts to promote transparency Media freedom and other efforts these fundamental Democratic principles are what make us attractive At the end of the day as I've said all of us in this room can agree on one key point The United States must lead American leadership counts and that said Dr. Brzezinski, you were absolutely right when you said in this increasingly complicated geopolitical environment and America in pursuit of a new Timely strategic vision is crucial to helping the world world avoid a dangerous slide Into international turmoil. Let us show the world that strategic vision and the kind of leadership We have always shown in the past. Thank you very much Thank you very much senator Menendez for your very wise and thoughtful introductory remarks to our program today My name is Andy kitchens. I'm director of the Russian Eurasia program here at CSIS and I want to note that this event today is being organized under the auspices of the Brzezinski Institute Which was just formed last year here at CSIS to try to bring greater historical and geographical Perspective to the key challenges that we face in foreign policy and national security So it is a special honor for me today as it always is when I have the honor to introduce Doctors big anew Brzezinski for whom of course the Institute is named He's been a mentor and a role model for my career And I've had the privilege to work together with him here at CSIS Where he is counselor and trustee and co-chairs the CSIS advisory board There's probably nobody around who's better equipped to address the questions that we are facing in today's discussions For dr. Brzezinski. I think there may be a sense of deja vu all over again Been there done that I remember in the early mid 1970s We had a period in the US-Soviet relationship that perhaps in more contemporary terms might have been referred to as a reset Of course, I'm referring to detente or as it was called in Russian at the time relaxation of tensions And this was formerly initiated in 1972 Jimmy Carter became president in 1977 and of course his national security advisor at the time was dr. Brzezinski Detente policy was already quite controversial in Washington as many thought that the Soviets were violating the spirit if not the terms of the so-called agreement and it was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December of 1979 that probably put the nail in the coffin of detente perhaps analogously as The reset policy got its nail in the coffin with the Russian occupation of Crimea last February and The question today. I think is maybe this a similar question into that in 1979 perhaps a similar question to that of 1949 What do we do to respond in a period of much greater belligerence from Moscow? And how do we bring together our allies in Europe to work together with us to achieve the goals that we seek? Dr. Brzezinski, we look forward to sharing your sharing your thoughts with us this afternoon senator Andrew ladies and gentlemen I'm delighted to be able to take part in this discussion and My starting point is a basic agreement with what the senator so eloquently outlined and so specifically Formulated I'm going to have a narrower view and it's based on the belief That it is now time for the United States to become more actively involved in shaping the outcome of The crisis that's going on and not merely reacting to the crisis And there's an important difference between the two and the latter implies a comprehensive Victory a success our values our power our intelligence will prevail The latter requires a focus on what is feasible in the short run and which takes into account Not only our fundamental concerns But some of Russia's concerns For I'm assuming that the outcome to this crisis is not going to be a one-sided victory Either for one or for the other If it were for the Russians It would involve of course a triumph for a regime that's in the process of self-redefinition ever since 2007 Put in speech at the verkunda conference in Germany and more recently in February and March He has outlined a concept of the Russia Which is curiously antiquated but intensely nationalistic very preoccupied with status and power and full of resentments and This is a regime which does proclaim in effect that it views the Western world and particularly the Atlantic Alliance as an enemy an Enemy that is to be undermined The lines to be split and the maximum objectives of that intensely Chauvinistic definition of Russia today are to be achieved And if Russia does achieve them In Ukraine by means which we have already witnessed and then of course it follows That the Baltic states may be next they certainly were part of the Soviet Union Worse from Putin's point of view. They're part of the tsarist Empire Therefore they should again be part of Russia and that could lead to other places Whether it's Azerbaijan or Georgia and of course it would involve the collapse of the Atlantic Alliance So indeed a great deal is at stake for us here, and that's why we have to take it seriously But let's not have a One-eyed vision of this problem What is happening with Russia? First of all its economy is on a very serious slide very serious slide and It is already an economy that's way behind Deleting contenders for global economic and political influence and I will not recite the whole litany of shortcomings That the Russian society confronts and they haven't made worse by the sanctions adopted by us They assure the fact that years from now still some years from now and for some years To come Russia will be an economy in crisis That in itself is a very major development and cannot be ignored Moreover in addition to that it is quite evident that some of Russia's immediate neighbors That Putin had hoped to recruit Into the Eurasian Union His original name For what was in effect and attempt to recreate the Soviet bloc the Soviet Union and the tsarist Empire is not going to be a Eurasian Union The very best it might be is a Eurasian Economic Union And that's the way Some of Russia's immediate adjoining neighbors compelled to go into it have redefined it And for example Kazakhstan has been very important at respect and some of the other would be members in it Have been distancing themselves from it insisting in fact on the word you economic Union But also insisting in effect without saying it on political diversity Look at the very complicated game the government of Belarus has been playing in order to maximize its independence Having until very recently been in effect a totally cowed Russian satellite Look at Kazakhstan and look at what is happening to the East increasingly some of the former Soviet Asian Republics are becoming closely associated with China and becoming members of a China dominated sphere so in effect Russian internal crises and dangers are Matching the prospective dangers that we are facing and that has some important implications Russia too could be in grave danger Russian interests could be in grave danger And there has to be some recognition if not necessarily by the top leader over there, and I don't put ours in the same category that a risky response All out assault will prevail We do know enough about the Russian military that they are not ready Even for a major local war with the West not to speak of a great war in part perhaps Putin knows it too and Therefore the strange and fundamentally counterproductive demonstrations of nuclear power threats of nuclear weapons and overflights and Of course if that is his determination There's nothing we can do to stop it. That is the vulnerability of the moment But we can also do things that can help perhaps having scaled down what we hope to accomplish and Having recognized the fact that in any accommodation there has to be give and take if it is to work In my view therefore it follows from the foregoing something with which I very much agree namely what the senator was saying I Have also been saying it since the Ferkunda meeting in Germany a year ago Immediately after the crisis started that we should be willing to provide defensive weaponry to the Ukrainians. I still hold to that Whereas I expected and hoped a year ago. We would say it at the very beginning of the crisis I feel now in view of what has happened The next step should be somewhat different than what would have been desirable a year ago We now have to do it in a quiet way Simply warning Moscow privately that if there is a resumption of military action Directed for example at Mario Paul Or at other major cities The United States will have no choice Will have no choice. We're not rushing to do it, but we'll have no choice But to provide defensive weaponry for the resisting Ukrainian forces and We will do it on our own or We'll do it with those of our allies Who are willing to do it with us because we recognize that there is the diversity of opinion as a subject in the alliance But that cannot prevent either us or our immediate allies from doing what we may feel necessary We may also choose in those circumstances to intensify some of the sanctions Implementing the sectoral sanctions which are still potential and devastating consequences of which I will understood by both parties In other words, we're telling the Russians. We know you're using force and We know that we may not be able to stop you by countervailing force But who will significantly increase the cost of the use of force whether you're prevailing or not? And they know very well that their position in the region is deteriorating Whereas China's is rising and a military engagement of some Duration would be close to the kids of death for the existing system secondly in order to cool down the crisis and To return to some degree of normalcy in relations with Russia Some degree of normalcy not normalcy not return to the reset years We also should indicate to Russia That we favor we actually favor and expect that Ukraine eventual place as a genuine European country democracy member of the EU will not entail membership in NATO For that, I don't think much of an explanation is necessary Just take one look at the map and see what happens To the distance between a NATO country such as would Ukraine then become and Moscow and compare it to us and Canada it's almost identical It is very close to the capital in each case This has a message This has some content and one cannot expect the Russians to be altogether indifferent to the notion that all of a sudden a large 45 million nation becomes a member of NATO and Very relevant here is the fact that even poles taken poles P. O. W. L. S Poles taken in the last few days in Ukraine indicate the following Attitudes on the part of the Ukrainian people After everything that has happened majority of Ukrainians prefer neutrality between the European Union and Russia 63 find neutrality tolerable while 31 say it is unacceptable In the pro-European western you in the pro-European western Ukraine only 48 percent of Ukrainians find neutrality tolerable and 48 intolerable In other words the Ukrainian public opinion is very divided on the extent of its formal association with the West inclined to support membership With the EU but hesitant and certain Concerned about the other realizing that that is a Step that can produce all sorts of negative consequences if push comes to shove Now only the United States in the present circumstances Can undertake initiatives to explore the possibility of such an outcome NATO as we all know has tried it Chancellor Merkel President Allound made a noble effort They were treated in a patronizing fashion by Putin Only the United States can do it because that guarantees full-scale 100 percent attention And it is only the United States that at this stage Can say with confidence that such an arrangement Would in fact Serve the interests of the Ukrainian people Would be a step forward in the evolution of Europe Would be a potential long-term example for Russia Without a war And efforts to prevent it in particulates escalation by Russia would produce a calamity But one cannot hide behind the fear of a calamity in order to justify a posture of indifference And this is why a more active International involvement today by the United States is necessary We have deliberately Allowed our allies to take the initiative because that helps to fortify a European stamp a stand in common within Europe and a stand in common generally speaking with us But the risk in that today is that the next round of fighting Could get out of control could escalate at that stage our sudden response Will be too late and that stage The Russians would be tempted to go all the way because they're already facing an extremely serious internal crisis and Therefore in that present context They're bound to be people in the Russian leadership Who feel that some sort of an arrangement is in fact in Russia's interest There is some professional judgment to the effect that the Russian army today is about three to four years Before being effectively ready for a sustained military campaign Against a well armed professionally developed armed with modern weapons Military establishment namely ours and to the extent that we can help the Ukrainians eventually theirs It's a striking analogy to the situation that prevailed in Europe in 1938 39 After the Anschluss Hitler decided to go after Czechoslovakia at that time the German general staff in particular its head Warned Hitler that German is not ready that Germany will be ready to wage a serious war against serious enemies Raffled by 1943 and not started in 1939 We know the rest of the story. I strongly suspect that there are people in the financial world in Russia and in the military That knows that some sort of an outcome Accepting the reality of a Europe oriented, but not a NATO embracing Accommodation is in the mutual interest of the two. I think it's well worth the effort. It is not a capitulation It is not a shameful compromise. It is in fact paving the way to the political self-assertion of the Ukrainians and eventually After Putin is no longer there For Russia to traverse the same road Because Russia's squeeze between the West and China has on the one clear choice to make But it has to qualify for it. Thank you Look at afternoon everyone My name is Heather Conley. I'm the director of the Europe program here at CSIS and what a privilege to hear from you both Because of the shortness of time we'll just do a few Q&As here for for some discussion I have so many questions, but I'd like to begin by asking both of you Senator Menendez you painted a picture of strong American leadership and engagement Rethinking America's forced posture in Europe a long-term strategic framework and Dr. Brzezinski You too spoke of a a long-term Perspective here and quite a very dangerous Potential for escalation. I think though both Europe and the United States have adopted a policy of strategic patience and in fact Dr. Brzezinski you've cautioned about being patient and being confident Does this mean in the German Foreign Minister quoted last week saying maybe it will last a generation to create the conditions that we Can talk about a solution to the conflict. How do you? Sink strategic patience and waiting this out potentially with sanctions and escalating pain To what you both were talking about which is a much more Energetic us leadership model which has some elements to what our position was in the Cold War strong American engagement in Europe Senator Menendez, I'll begin with you first well, I If to the extent that there's going to be strategic patience, and I hope it's not a generation that that we're talking about I still believe that Strength avoids provocation weakness invites it And from that perspective, I would lay the foundations For having Russia understand that there are consequences for violating the international order And hopefully getting it to change its calculation sooner rather than later And as dr. Brzezinski suggested there may be ways of doing that to find an off-ramp for Russia But I don't believe that Looking at Putin's speeches And if you follow his speeches you've seen where he's followed up in their real action And what's happened in Georgia and Tristinia and Certainly what's happened Crimea and onwards that he has moved in a direction that despite the patience That has been shown in terms of the responses that could have already been generated that has not deterred him So I think that the calculation for him has to be changed or else you will see more aggression Minx one didn't produce very much for very long minx to Actually almost codified what the rebels took And created more difficulties for Ukraine as it relates to controlling its border I just don't see it moving in the type of direction that we'd want to say Well strategic patience It's like a rubber band, you know, you can stretch it stretch it But at some point it snaps and I think it's important to get the situation under control before it snaps And Putin's not going to be around forever So the problem is how to find a formula right now which stabilizes a situation But without a one-sided victory for one side Yes, I hate to see Ukraine being deprived of Crimea I am sorry that they're losing part of its eastern territories Although that section is inhabited heavily by Russians actual Russians not Russian-speaking Ukrainians But the point is that we can stabilize it we can stabilize it and achieve our central objective which is a Ukraine which is permitted to express and Attain a status in a Europe that it wishes to join a Europe That's democratic that gives its people same opportunities that Europeans have that over time can have the same kind of economic success That Poland has achieved None of which was achieved in the last 20 years It was a period of rampant opportunism corruption for presidents Establishing a unique record in which each successor was worse than the predecessor That's quite a quite an achievement I think Ukrainians deserve that and they deserve our support, but they don't necessarily want to be members of NATO and That petrifies the Russians and also Putin is using it effectively as a mobilizing tool for anti-western sentiments It seems to me much more sensible to strive for an arrangement Or by as I have said in my comments Ukraine has the opportunity to progress towards Europe and that's not a one-year event That takes years. I'll just remind you that Turkey has only has been on the list for membership Since the 1960s and they require meeting a number of steps. It will take time for Ukraine to achieve it In the meantime things will change in Russia I am convinced because Russia has no other alternative to become a big satellite of China If you look at the map, that's the alternative and it's not very appealing to the Russians There is also a Ukraine a Russian Middle-class that's increasingly Western oriented today intimidated But before too long, it will start resurfacing as it was beginning to resurface under Mediarev and then Putin came back having taken a little rest after his speech in Verkunda in 2007 and then he rushed forward with this progressive institutionalization of a nationalistic chauvinistic Imperialistic dogma, which is now trying to implement. I don't think that will work in the longer run And we don't know how long he's going to be around but if in the meantime we can achieve some stabilization on that basis We will advert what otherwise might be a slide into a conflict in which inevitably both sides Escalate and counter-escalate and then who knows what will happen, but I don't think whatever happens will be very congenial I have one last question as we wrap it up. I'll break it into two parts. Senator Menendez. Are you concerned that? President Putin will continue on that Mario poll extending that land bridge between Crimea and and the Russian Federation is Is a potential do you see this expanding and then secondly? I'd love your thoughts on on the tragic murder of Boris Nemsov and Dr. Vizhinsky said a few months ago here at CSIS that the Russia's nationalist of Chauvinism can potentially slide into fascism and we're seeing this incredible Propaganda they're whipping his passion Within the Russian people of anti-Americanism Are we concerned that we're seeing right now an environment that even President Putin cannot control? Well, let me take the second part of your two per question. I'll do both of them, but first of all I Deeply said that Boris Nemsov's lost his life so tragically and I have a very difficult time seeing the latest allegations that some Islamist Drive was the reason for his assassins of course Thinking about any system of justice inside of Russia is also very difficult to comprehend so I'm just amazed and I think it may engender his supporters and saw supporters to be strengthened in their resolve as it relates to trying to create peaceful change inside of Russia, but It's very difficult to believe some of the statements that are being made as it was very difficult to believe the initial statements that it was outside influences and the West and others trying to do this so But there there is a danger if real justice doesn't take place at the end of the day It has to how people will respond and and whether that response can be Channeled in a way that is powerful but peaceful as it relates to my concerns. I am concerned I truly believe That left unchecked President Putin will continue to march on Every ceasefire has been clearly violated. We've seen more Russian troops beyond that which I saw when we were Listening to the Ukrainians when I was there last year at the beginning of this whole process You have an enormous number of I think twenty some odd thousand in Crimea. You have several thousand in the eastern part of Ukraine It's very difficult also for Ukraine to have stability Economically despite everything that we are doing with the IMF despite the reforms that they are Undertaking which are to be applauded and my own personal view is that this is probably the best leadership Ukraine has had in quite some time But the reality is if you keep bleeding through a conflict in eastern Ukraine It is very difficult to stabilize yourself and you know Putin is well known for creating frozen conflicts And so I just think that even to freeze the set of circumstances at where they're at Requires a stronger more significant US leadership role working with our European allies and bringing them to a point that they can understand and of course You know, I'm not a big promoter of exporting US energy abroad because I like the competitive advantage it gives us here at home to Reassert manufacturing whatnot, but if you can strategically in a global market if you can strategically Help the Europeans with energy in the interim as they bridge towards their ultimate needs That's a powerful opportunity as well to liberate them more to deal with with the Russian Challenge that we have those are in addition to my remarks that I've made formally Those are some of the things I think we just need to do and to alter the course of events The course of events as they're headed are not good Dr. Rzensky final words Well, I would merely reiterate the basic point namely Need the side in the short run can prevail over the other side without setting in motion Consequences that will be dynamic destructive and unpredictable each of us in terms of the two sides faces problems with the cohesion of the alliance phases problems with the willingness to respective societies to engage in a contest that could lead ultimately to a hellish Confrontation and both need some sort of initiative which gives each side the basis for saying In terms of fundamental interests we prevailed for us It is an independent Ukraine that can be a member of Europe and its future is Assured for the Russians It's some assurance that NATO doesn't make a giant step forward very close strategically to the inside of Russia and demonstrates in effect dramatic geopolitical defeat for Putin Beyond that each side has additional problems with third world issues other conflicts and for Putin the neighbor to the east So they both have a potential stake in some accommodation But it has to be triggered by a decisive power that has it that has a strategic vision of what it wishes to accomplish Thank You senator Menendez. This is the first time you've been I think at CSIS So we're so delighted that you were with us Thank you for your your strong message and we understand you and senator Corker are holding a hearing tomorrow on on this subject So more to follow we'll look forward to your leadership there and dr. Brzezinski. It's a great privilege Thank you for sharing your thoughts and please join me in thanking our fantastic panelists for a great discussion