 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are currently just 15 days away from the 2023 NFL draft, which seems bananas to say given It seems like I mean the tournament just ended. We got a lot of stuff going on But 15 days from today is the first round of the draft We're gonna talk about some NFL draft betting talk about takeaways things We've learned the past couple of years how to apply those to the 2023 draft and talk about some NBA playing tournament stuff With dr. Ed Fang to get you ready for tonight's games This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by dr Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank calm check about on Twitter at the power rank as well Eddie you've had some time to decompress after the national championships. So how you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. I'm actually still reading a book called America of St. Anthony's which is about Dan Hurley's dad and His high school. So I feel like he was a he was a high school coaching legend and particularly in the state of New Jersey and Yeah, I'm still reading the book. It's a fantastic book So I still feel like I'm kind of living a little bit in the college basketball world Through that book. So but it's nice to get some time to a little bit more time to read and dig into that and Find something that I'm really enjoying and yeah working on some other stuff, too So it's been it's a good time of year. So you are spending your time reading instead of catching up on sleep I Feel like at some point the sleep's got to come. I know John Rothstein says we sleep in May We're not there yet, but like at some point you got to catch up I don't think Rothstein ever sleeps. No, that's my guess We sleep in May is is a mantra. It is not actually I don't think it's the way he actually operates Based on like the time of his tweets. I don't think he can sleep ever like he's kind of like shifter and that like Tweets are fine at all times four o'clock in the morning. Shefty bomb and it happens, you know I'm not never surprised at that point. Yeah. Oh, and then I and then I'm reading like the longest woj bomb ever, right? So Because woj wrote the miracle scene athletes. Oh, did he okay? Yeah, this was way back in the day before we was dropping woj bombs all the time I Love it. Well, that's very cool Well, we'll have to get a we'll have to go back to quarantine corner at some point to get a full Book review of that never want to return to quarantine corner, but I'll take a book review at any time to break down Ed's thoughts on that we're gonna dive in and talk about ways to bet sports We don't have models because you know, we got a lot of NBA games coming up We don't have podcasts we can do every weekend to talk about those games We're gonna go through some tools you can use when you don't have like full models Are you're supposed if you want to bet the NBA we'll talk about Ed's process there And then talk about the NFL draft talk about takeaways We've had from betting the draft the past couple of years and what that means for 2023 as well But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow We'll have some thoughts from Todd Beckia around the Saturday games In the NBA playoffs we'll talk about the final play-in games as well coming up on Friday and Get Tom's thoughts on a 13 game NHL slate for tomorrow We'll talk some EPL coming up Friday all that right here in the covering the spread podcast feed So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating as well. Speaking of the NBA playoffs They are here you can turn crossovers into cash with fan duel Just visit fan duel right now and place a five dollar bet And you'll get an instant hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets win or lose There is no better place to bet all the action than america's number one sports book Just go to fan duel and sign up to get a hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet your first five dollars fan duel official sports betting partner of the NBA gambling problem call one 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg in massachusetts hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 seven support in new york 1877 a hope and wire text open y In arizona 1800 next step or text next step to 53342 in kineticate 188 789 7777 over the ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it in wyoming in kansas 1805 22 4700 in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana is 1877 770 stop in maryland md gambling health dot orc in west virginia 1800 gambler dot net must be 21 plus and president select states Fan duel is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with the kansas star casino llc Bonus issued is non withdrawal with bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat restrictions apply C-fold terms at sportsbook dot fan duel dot com now and neither you or i Have numbers on the nba But we may still want to get some bets down on the nba and i want to talk about Ways we can still do that responsibly obviously Without having models and you have been doing this you've been putting some bets down the nba Via some tools you found where you can use market insights to kind of get uh get fund Better good routes to betting things even without having your own numbers So what are those tools? How can we use them and anything you found for tonight's games? My process goes back to the logic of sports betting This is a book by ed miller and matthew davidow and they talk about how a lot of the sharpest betters Don't necessarily look to originate in some sense They look for the weak market first and maybe let this handicap be a little simpler So in the book they talk a lot about no-hold markets between different sports books, right? and so the idea is um, you know, if you if you can bet a side of you know You know broncos plus three Broncos plus three plus 100 at one book and then you know, you can get the same side plus 100 You know choose minus three or whatnot Then you can bet whatever side you want right and then and you should in principle not lose money and you don't need Much of an edge, right? You don't have to get over the vague of of two point 2.5 4% or whatever. Yeah 2.5 4 percent You don't have to get over that vague if you can find lower-hold markets And so that's what I try to do with the mba and mba player props That scope is a really good tool to do this. Uh, this is something created by Colin Davey It's something that I've been using And when you when you click on a game it kind of finds those easier markets There's there's a whole bunch of terminology, but essentially look I'm looking for like some low-hold markets, right? So what is the market in which? sportsbooks tend to differ And you're not going to find too many differences on game spreads, but you will on player props And so that in general is my approach bet scope is like a tool that that tends to find markets that are off and it's usually uh I mean the the example today is a little bit weird But you know, usually you can find a pretty weird you can find a pretty weak number at a weak sports book And you can go ahead and bet that So that in general is my approach, right? Find the weak market first do a pretty simple handicap And do a little bit of betting. Uh, it's worked out in general for me so far I've done this a couple times in five nuggets saturday in my newsletter and um, you know, often if i'm looking for some action this is what I do And again the vel process there is looking for Because we have so many sportsbooks in each market I know obviously not everyone has this because I live in Rhode Island I have to bet at Rhode Island sportsbook if I don't go to massachusetts or connecticut So I have to bet here. I can't find a no-hold market unless they make a pretty bad mistake Which you know, it doesn't typically happen. Uh, but if you have 11 different sports book at your disposal like illinois Finding a no-hold market is not as difficult as it may seem If you're shopping across You know 16,000 different markets, which is what we've got here with all these claire props available You can find some spots where if you are comparing across books, you can find situations like that basically what you're saying is sites like betscope Will run the numbers for you try to find and identify those markets and make it easier on you where you're not Generating your own projections and stuff like that. I think I like about betscope personally is that If you go there, they have distribution calculators. I talked about this in the show before but you can Put in like I can go to number fire Get a rebound projection for Zach Levine Put that in there. It'll show me the The uh, the odds you should have over under various numbers So you can have someone else's projections plug those into You know betscope if you want to use there or or elsewhere It'll tell you like the expected odds based on that projection If you assume it's accurate try to get an over under on various numbers So you can look at the available sports books to you find try to see if you can find a number that way that's one route you can do but Like you said, I think finding the no-hold market can be the better route here And also you can use projections to find which side you want of a no-hold market because I mean if it's a big enough edge, you could bet both sides of different books to lock in a profit but uh, what call it or what they what they recommend in the book is Picking a side basically picking a side you think is right. Um, you could lock in a profit by betting both sides, but Margins will be smaller there for sure. So you can do it that way. So a couple different ways you can use Those props now you said you had some stuff for tonight's game What'd you find while using these tools for the playing games tonight? Yeah, the late game is uh, New Orleans and Oklahoma City and One thing that really stood out in best scope was uh, Brandon Ingram Number of points when I checked it this morning a lot of the books were at 30 and a half and Some of the weaker sports books like barstool We're way lower And that's usually not the way that you want to do it You usually end up betting at the weaker sports books and and and towards the consensus of some of the stronger sports books Um, but that's actually not what I found with this one So my handicap is pretty simple Brandon Ingram is coming off a 42 point game in his last game against Minnesota He also had like 12 rebounds and seven assists pretty monster game And obviously this is a play-in game and his minutes are gonna go up His use is just probably like he's gonna go up, but he's not the only score on the team He's averaged 24.7 points for the game I expect a little bit of regression in this one. So I I bet Brandon Ingram under 30 and a half points Uh, it's 29 and a half. I believe right now. Yep. That's what I just saw as well shaded towards the over But yeah, it's one of these, um, you know, and I like when I'm looking at player props I'd like to bet the under right if that's what regression in the mean tells me I like to bet the under And that's what is going on with with Brandon Ingram here as well So, uh, yeah, so that that's generally my process Like I said before usually, uh, it's not fandal than betting at it some other sports book, uh, like bar stool And and betting wherever way the you know fandal usually is at but that that doesn't happen to be the case this time I also took under 44 and a half for points rebounds and assists for Brandon Ingram Obviously, I just I just gave you those numbers for his last game and he was way over that Um, but he averages about I mean roughly 35 for points rebounds and assists So even if you count for the fact that he's probably going to play more Even if you count for the fact that his usage is going to go up that that's a pretty tall ask And uh, so, uh, I took under 44 and a half Points rebounds and assists for Brandon me Brandon Ingram as well And again, that's all without having your own numbers. It is just using tools Trying to find weaker markets trying to find spots where one book is off from others and Using that to lean on how to bet things. You mentioned the Ingram points number 29 and a half under minus 104 right now at number fire They have Ingram's point projection at 25.6 to plug in the bet scope to get a Distribution under 29 and a half should be priced at minus 232 So having it at minus 104 implies there's still good value there So again, that that's routes you can take to bet into markets where you don't have You know experts here to tell you this stuff because again games running the weekends We're not here on the weekends and stuff like that So you can find ways around even without having your own numbers And I think that that is it's a good tool to have because Like you said the principles of spotting soft markets Those are good things to learn. It's why you should read the logic of sports betting You know Ed Miller, uh, Matthew Davidoff did a great job there. It's a a I would say like a Premanent book when you want to read if you're trying to get serious about this And that really illustrates why this process is so important So uh, check those out the Ingram one more so used as like a an example But yeah, it is applicable if you listen to this before Wednesday I want to take that in but I think it's more so showing the process you got to get there than the actual bet itself Absolutely, and yeah, definitely continue to use that process Absolutely, and it's not just for MBA. It's for everything, you know Finding better ways to make things simpler on yourself can be a smart thing as always Well, I Jim I do find it useful to Look at sports that you know a little bit something about I actually made the mistake that Desmond Bain played for Dallas instead of Memphis in my newsletter once whoops And uh, actually that was one of the ones that lost because Had I kind of realized I had them on the wrong team and jump around playing that night Maybe I don't make that bet maybe not But um, yeah, so uh, yeah It is a running joke on the number fire slack that I am the nba expert as someone who does not really watch games or consume it You know Following the insights of other smart people It's okay to do that at times. Obviously you won't have your specialties and stuff like that But never a bad thing to spot soft markets and take advantage of those Speaking of potentially soft markets, let's shift focus now and talk about the nfl draft And this is something we talked about pretty often the past couple years and you've gotten really into Betting the nfl draft and that's just happened over the course of a couple years I know it started largely because of covet where we were had nothing else to bet on But it's been about three years now where you've been betting the draft and kind of learning from these markets So when you look back at the past couple of years What do you think you've learned? What are the important tools you think you've gained from betting this that you want to apply to betting in 2023? Right, so betting the nfl draft for me is again something where I don't actually Use my own tools. I have actually done my own wisdom of crowd stuff in the past, but I haven't this year and I don't know if I intend to Benjamin Robinson does a pretty good job over grounded mocks and we'll talk a little bit about that later, but It you know betting the nfl draft for me is a way to pay attention to the players coming into league To look back on my college football numbers and say You know, how can we evaluate these players and project them at the next level? You know can can Kentucky have an awful passing success rate and we'll let us succeed at the next level Yeah, if you have a josh Allen type miracle. Yeah, it's definitely possible Um, so for me, you know, it's a way to kind of dig in It's a way to listen to podcasts follow some sharp people that I will talk about a little bit later um, but yeah, just pay attention and You know when markets move try to bet markets that are related to to those markets as well It's something that anyone can do if you want to put a little bit of time into it If you love football and you know, there's really not much else to follow right now It's it's it's actually kind of fun. So I mean, I've gotten into it just because I find it fun And it's in this way for me to keep up with players And it You know, it's it's pretty beatable, you know, you know fandal and draft kings are putting up a lot of different markets and Oh, yeah, that's another thing. I mean I try to bet them when they first come out Um, so I think draft kings is like the only one that actually has draft position for various players up So that would be something I would try to dive into try to find some edge Um, I did uh, I did send out will love is over seven and a half in my newsletter It's kind of moved against me a little bit. I mean, there's certainly chance that indy takes him at four or lost Las Vegas takes him at seven But I I think he's definitely trending downwards and um There's a lot of situations in which he falls out of the top 10 completely. So Yeah, so so things like that, uh, you know, look for the weak markets when they open just pay attention And have fun with it And I think a key part of paying attention is knowing to what to pay attention to and how to proceed with caution around some of that Because the nfl draft markets limits are lower, which means a lot of times when things move It's going to be based on information based on information that everyone has, you know So if chris mohrenson sends a tweet out about the panthers liking brice young That could move the market and it could be disinformation So I think that's the tough part for me yet is knowing How skeptical to be of market movements given that this is a less informed market than what we have in terms of You know, big bad stuff like that then we have for almost anything else. How do you balance that? You know, you're looking at trying to identify How you can bet Based on other movements How do you properly balance knowing the markets may be less efficient while still trying to find good numbers? Is it just getting good closing line value on markets that will move eventually or how do you kind of balance those two factors? I mean closing line value certainly matters I mean I sent devon witherspoon to be the first cornerback plus 300 out to my members and it's minus 175 now So in general, like I I think that's a good thing This certainly is a weaker market, right? So You know, you do have to be cautious there Again, I would kind of look to how long the market has been out So these draft positions at at draft kings Have not been out as long as the market for the first overall pick which has been around for forever honestly like through the fall so You know, if you see a big move in Who's going to get picked first? Yeah, you know, it's probably more likely than not Um going going that way. I I would definitely trust it. We can talk about that more in a little bit So, you know, I would say like it's a combination of experience and knowing Uh, you know wanted to do this. I mean like you mentioned like this is my third year pretty seriously getting into it um, so Just a little bit of experience and and and you know experience that you can pull from other markets as well, right? Right, right the difference between what a market opens and right before close Now you mentioned the first overall pick that's a market that moved a lot last year and it moved correctly Um with Trevon Walker getting talked up and eventually taken first overall This year we've seen Bryce young go from an underdog CJ Stroud was pretty heavily favorite to go first overall But now young minus 270 that was uh minus 300 as early as yesterday and it's now minus 270 When you look at this market, Ed Do you find any reason to bet against the steam that young has garnered? Could it you know? Maybe be disinformation out there, or do you think There could be value in young's like, you know in a lot of draft markets There's value in laying big minus numbers because value is value What's your read on this first overall pick market with where things stand right now? I think with the first pick you often get I mean you tend to get pretty huge favorites in general. So I think two years ago Uh, Trevor Lawrence was you know, maybe minus 10,000 or something like that. It was like off the board eventually Yeah, it was off the board eventually, right? You know just like the markets for like where the carolina is going to take a quarterback or you know The position of carolina's first pick is is off the board So I would tend to trust this movement simply because it is the first pick It is something that we probably should have a lot of information about There are a lot of journalists out there covering this Um, I I would tend to believe this market movement, you know more so than like, you know Who the first tight end is going to be taking or something like that, right? Um Last year with uh with walker was was pretty interesting because because a bunch of the sharp mockers were actually On that before the market moved the weekend before the draft, which is pretty cool I was actually in Ohio For a soccer tournament and and couldn't bet it and so I had tech some people back in michigan to to get down on that Um, so yeah, that was an example um where You know, the the the good strategy was to try to find some plus numbers on a couple of different people that could be the top pick That actually would have worked really well in the mba draft last year when you had like three guys that were going to be the top Pick and and you know, I think you could have gotten like 20 plus 2200 or something on I'm paying a bunch girl To the day of or something crazy like that, right? Um I actually think this is probably going to head more towards the definitive favorite That's kind of what it feels like bryce jong has definitely been the kind of top rated quarterback According to the experts and if carolina believes in that I think that's You know, I wouldn't be surprised if we see minus a thousand soonish And I think the important thing too is knowing which sources to trust on this stuff Like I know a couple years ago adam schafter was saying Oh the 49ers may have traded out from mac jones and that wound up not being correct but His track record is amazing and so I don't I think it's important not to overrate being wrong once And knowing the sources to trust Schafter is one that I trust a lot personally despite that I think that he deserves to be trusted in that regard and there are some people who will put stuff out there that I'm not going to trust so understanding the sources chris mortensen is one of the guys who's mentioned bryce jong first overall he's a guy to trust as well so Parsing through the information deciding which sources you want to trust. I think it's a key thing within this as well Now we're going to do a more full draft prop preview later on We'll talk about that either next week or week of the draft and do a full dive in but ed when you're looking at The sources you trust looking at the markets the way they've moved Anything stand out to you right now that you want to bet entering this year's nfl draft For sure. Uh, I actually like looking at the total number of quarterbacks in the first round Uh, it's it's four and a half at fan duel right now And you know, I mean there's there's pretty much a lock for four of them So riyang stroud Richardson and levis in that order. I did bet levis over seven and a half in the position, but he's He's he's he's gonna go in the first round And so this bet comes down to where hendon hooker gets taken And benjamin rominson over at grind of the mox has seen a pretty huge uptick in his draft position Uh, he's a pretty interesting prospect. He did light it up at tennessee The idea is that that doesn't necessarily translate Uh to what he's going to be able to do in the nfl Um, he's 25 years old. So that's definitely a knock against them Quarterbacks to get drafted at 25 don't end up doing that. Well, I think you guys like brandon weed But uh a lot a lot of uh, so the wisdom of crowds tool definitely say hookers on the rise Um, there are some sharp mockers like daniel germaya that are putting hendon hooker in the first round Thinking a team like minnesota is going to take them there. Let them sit a year behind her cousins So so right now, uh, I think this morning Oh, actually it's right there. Uh plus 144. Yeah, that's what I bet it at this morning So I feel like the price should be like plus 100 So I think I think plus 144 is pretty good value Obviously, I don't have to tell you that the quarterbacks the most important position So it's not a stretch to think that some team late in the first round wants to go if they like hooker wants to go get him Uh either to start I mean not maybe not to start but as uh a player that they are looking into long term to groom as their starter I do think there is value there And uh, I like over four and a half quarterbacks And I think the thought process with hooker is that because he has this acl injury You might want the fifth year option And that's why you might want to take him in the first round to get that extra flexibility With him there because I'm skeptical hooker too. Um, you know, he Like you said is very old. He's actually the fifth oldest quarterback invited to the combine Since 2010 uh stets and benet is the guy right above him So he made jokes about sets and benet all throughout the playoffs. He's only a hair older than hooker Um If you look at the 25 oldest quarterbacks to get combine invites since 2010 Only one has been a top 100 pick and that was weedon who was 28.5 years old on the day of the draft So he's an outlier And so the data says guys this old typically don't go in the first round but kenny picket was Pretty up there too. He's 23.9 On the day of the draft. So he was up there too I think that if you're looking at this market right now, you can you plus 144 over 4 and a half I think a thought process could be take the over right now and see if it keeps on Steaming in that direction if we were to get to a situation where um, maybe We get a lot of enthusiasm around hooker Then you could maybe take the under as well later on depending on where it gets to because I think plus 144 is a good number I don't know where it would be later on because again, I'm very skeptical of hooker and I I wouldn't mind Diving in there, but I think this market's gonna keep on moving because we've seen a lot of enthusiasm around hooker from smart guys Daniel Jeremiah is very plugged in uh to the nfl. You're talking about sources to trust Yeah, if you want to trust guys who know the nfl Jeremiah from a mock drafting perspective is one of the first guys. You'll think uh, peter shragger. It also was a very good track record. Um, so There are certain guys you trust who or should trust I should say who are Putting in there Which means to me that market will keep on moving who want to get good closing on value want to get ahead of markets And I think it could give you a good hedging option later on Because I think I agree that you're a read on ed where that plus 144 May keep getting short. So although I personally am skeptical the hooker goes in the first I think the market is in a good spot to potentially Buy into that right now and maybe check back on it later on I guess is what I'd phrase that I would also like to add it It should never matter what you think a team should do right right exactly brilliant as you are gyms on us evaluating football players and Obviously my brilliance as well. Um, it doesn't matter what I would do that How to gm it doesn't I'm not a gm. I never will be And so do I think I didn't hooker should be taken in the first round? No, I thought marcus mario That's quarterback of all I thought marcus mario is the best quarterback prospect of all time, you know, we all make mistakes He's he's still in the league. That's not you know in theory. I know he's a bad. He's a backer for the eagles Hope he threw eyes there, but you know, he's hanging on for dear life Um, right like do I think well levy should be drafted at all? No, I think he's going to be freaking terrible But that doesn't really impact my betting right like I think levis is Going to get overlooked because of the rise of anthony richerson when I draft anthony richerson. Absolutely not no way But that doesn't matter his stock is on the rise right and it has been ever since the combine so um, yeah, I try to I definitely try to separate those things out Exactly and that's why I Again, I'm okay with the plus 144 and over four and a half quarterbacks because it does seem as if the market will move that way Smart people like Jeremiah have them in their first round mocks And I think that's the information that matters My evaluation does not matter the angel Jeremiah's does in weighing that in for sure Like I said, well more nfl draft talk in the coming weeks We're going to talk to add about do like kind of a more full breakdown of betting nfl draft props Numbers he likes we'll open that up to all sports books too So we can use a proper market proper price shopping and stuff like that to get you ready for the nfl draft But it was fun to get a little teaser for today. Talk about that talk about takeaways and more And I appreciate the insights. What's going on for you at the power rank right now? still writing five no good saturday and Been lucky that there's been a lot of winners in there recently So check that out at the power rank dot com and obviously the newsletter will have more football stuff as football season Comes back. Uh, but for now every saturday. It's just uh, if you need some action I try to help you out And it sounds like there's draft stuff in there too. So if you are intrigued by the nfl draft discussion Check out ads newsletter go to the power rank dot com to sign up for that find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow talking more nba playoffs We'll also talk the nhl regular season final couple of games. We'll see you there talk more about that This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network