• Demographics will decide the world’s history

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    Demographics will decide the world's history within the next decades. 2045 is the year in which, as the U.S. Census Bureau projects, Whites will become a minority in their own country. The same trend is observable in Europe. In the eighties these continents began their transformation from relatively monolithic into multi-ethnic or multicultural societies, which resulted in the rapid increase in the Latino population in the US, and the influx of immigrants from Africa and Asia in Europe. The academia and the ruling establishment believed that the different ethnic groups that are arriving in Europe and the US would blend into the indigenous communities and dissolve within one or two generations, adopting the superior Western values and norms because these are allegedly universal.

    The native European population growth will soon reach its peak and then the reverse trend, already observable in Russia and Poland, will set in. The population of the Netherlands and Germany is only expanding due to the rising number of second generation non-Western migrants. In no time (historically speaking) will the European ethnic composition resemble that of Brazil or India.

    The unprecedented rise of Front National, the riots in the Banlieu, the first Turkish party in the Dutch Parliament, Islam-driven terrorism, the Black Lives Matter movement and the endless discussions in the Western media between multi-cultural opponents and proponents, Whites and non-Whites, Islamists and Christians are just a few pieces in the broader picture, and we expect much more to come.

    Significant demographic changes are by no means restricted to Europe. The population of Africa, which is likely to keep on growing at the current unprecedented pace till 2100, is already outnumbering that of Europe, and India's population will outnumber that of China, which will be at its peak in 2030. In 2100 Africa will make up 40% of the world's population, while contributing close to nothing to the world's GDP.

    Far more people will live in Africa and South Asia than in Europe and North America. A neoliberal economist's take on this phenomenon is that we are all the same, replaceable human beings, irrespective of race, heritage, or religion, hence there is no reason to believe why Africans should not be as productive as the Japanese and as efficient as Germans. If such is the case then the shrinking populations of Europe, Japan, the US and China will be compensated for by Africa's young, energetic, vibrant men and women who will, they say, successfully take over and handle the world's growth engine.

    A cursory look at the condition of those American cities with African-American majorities, Haiti or African states does not raise such high hopes, which is why our team holds a different view. Sub-Saharan Africa's recorded history started about a hundred years ago, hand in hand with the beginning of the European colonization, which shows that even African historical consciousness has been shaped by Europeans, to say nothing of the continent's economy, which continues to be dependent on the technical and financial support from Europe and China. The approaching shift in demographics will create ethnic tensions, and will have a profound impact on the world's economy at large. Show less
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    In 2013, Kyle Bass from Hayman Capital predicted a loss of confidence in the Japanese Yen, and that the dollar will consequently rise far over the 200 yen.

    Kyle argued: "you have to realize when your debt is 24 times central government tax revenue, and you have a secular decline in population...what happens when you have a debt crisis? Well, your currency collapses."

    We never believed this would happen, and as we wrote in February, we expect the Japanese Yen regain value. Since then the yen rose more than 10%((Bank of Japan is selling out its people. Source Gefira 2016-02-01)).

    We can not understand how Japanese public debt can crush the Yen as long as foreign investors do not hold Japanese debt. Japanese fiscal and monetary policy kept the Yen relative cheap and Japanese authorities struggled to prevent the Yen from gaining value. We can not follow Kyle Bass reasoning. Unless you assume the Japanese public debt was issued to foreign creditors to keep the Yen expensive as is the case with the dollar, Japanese government debt can not crush the currency.
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