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The 26th annual Health Care Forecast Conference will focus on the outlook for health care under a new Presidency. With Republicans in control of all three branches of government, it may seem that repealing and replacing the ACA would be an easy process. Using budget reconciliation many aspects of the ACA can be repealed. However, changing other aspects of the ACA requires 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Democratic filibuster. Will a political compromise occur to retain some parts of the ACA and call the new bill “TrumpCare”? The Republicans also discuss changing Medicare into “premium support” and making Medicaid into a block grant program. How likely is it that any of these changes will occur? How will these changes be financed? These proposals affect the aged, those on Medicaid, those receiving ACA subsidies, as well as Governors, health care providers, and insurers. Each constituency will lobby to protect their self-interest. Will Republicans be sufficiently unified on these politically sensitive issues?
States that have expanded Medicaid eligibility have made a commitment to millions of people who have enrolled in Medicaid. How well have they performed? Will they be able to keep their commitment if Medicaid is changed to a block grant program? The impact of Medicaid and the State Budget will be discussed by former State officials and independent analysts. The outlook for Covered California will also be presented.
In addition to the expansion of coverage in Medicaid programs and subsidies in the exchanges, disruptive innovations in health care are likely to affect the delivery of medical services in the future. These innovations have significant implications for strategic planning, organizational structure, financial outlook and profitability. Several examples of disruptive innovations will be discussed.
The final session of the conference will provide a strategic outlook on the health care market from the physician, hospital and insurer perspectives. Payment Models which impact all sectors of health care will be presented as well. How large employers view the continuing evolution of the health care market will be discussed, and this session will end with a Wall Street outlook.