 The following is a presentation of T-F-N-N. The T-F-N-N Bull Bear Trading Hour. Every trading day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now toll-free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The T-F-N-N Bull Bear Trading Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate you growlin' and prowlin' with us out here. We have the Dow Industries down 15 Nasdaq off 22, S&Ps off 3, Gold contract up $6, trading at $13.37 an ounce. You get Silver up $0.05, $14.79 an ounce. Light Sweet Crew down $1.13, $52.14 a barrel. We're gonna get the EIA numbers out this morning. We sure are, man. We get some volatility already in that market. Fifty-one handle. Had a build last night. I think it's 4.5. For the API? Yeah, a 5.5. Plenty of oil out here folks. Cheaper prices, I like it. Notes and bonds. You get the 10-year note up 5 ticks, $126.31, $30 a bond flat, $153.19, and $Kingdala. $Kingdala up 65 ticks, $96.710. Now, $Kingdala's had a hard time the last couple days just trying to get higher. No volume behind the move. Really good of sideways move out here. The bulls and bears are gonna be fighting over this all day long, I suspect. Euro. Euro is trading at $1.13. The yen is at $108.40. And the pound is at $127.00 to $1.00 US. Let's go over to Adam. Mr. Kevin Inks, the TD Ameritrade, Think of Swim as we do each and every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Don't forget, folks, outstanding show here. Every trading day, 11 to 12, decent standard times. You want to understand option, option strategies, futures. If you haven't test-driven yet, the Think of Swim platform is really easy to do. Come over to our website at TFNN. Hit the banner. Ring it up. The alliance trade with paper money. It's a phenomenal platform. And if you want to know whether it's implied volatilities, volatilities, we have things moving. Of course, we were talking about Beyond Meat yesterday with Kevin. And you got a little pop out here today. A little pop. Double digits. After going down $45.00, man, it's gonna need more than a little 12% hike. A few little pops. Exactly. Kevin Inks, let's go. What's going on? Good morning, Tom. Good morning, Tommy. Another day, another big data point to talk about, guys. No doubts. No doubt. The real question's gonna be like, is it gonna kick up or is this bottom line just gonna lay out there at 2%, right? Tommy, Tommy, I think this is important though. If you look at the action in the bond market right after this number came out at 7.30, the bonds rallied 15 or 16 ticks, right? Yeah. They're basically now all the way back down there to one tick right now in the third year. And here's, I think, why. When you dove into the number a little bit, how much do you think about this? Food, up 3.10 to 1%. Medical expenses, up 3.10. Housing, up 0.1. Apparel unchanged. Airfares, up 0.2. New vehicles, up 0.1. But guess what, guys? Energy prices, down 0.6. Yeah. So lower gas prices have taken what might be a slightly stronger number and muted it to the smart. Yeah. You know, the gas thing is pretty cool. I mean, I filled up yesterday and just from last week, it seems like even though, you know, the oil market's gone down, folks, the last three weeks, it takes them a while to find the alarm to put the prices down, definitely. It certainly does. They go up like a fire hose and they trickle lower. They do, man. They do. Yeah. It's pretty well. Yeah, amazing. But I mean, I thought that was maybe a little bit of hidden strength inside that number that maybe why the bonds, when they rallied, not to mention the fact that they're a little overbought, failed in that upside. I thought that was pretty interesting this morning. You know, like we were talking about even the last couple of days, we were out eating last night and I was just talking to a guy across the bar and it was really intriguing. Now, this guy's not even in the finance business. Well, he's in the manufacturing business, right? Yeah. He goes to Toyota plants and manufactures the, he's in charge of the tool structures, okay? And he brought up the aspect that, hey, listen, man, you know, when we were talking about a recession, it seems like, okay, you know, maybe, you know, as the rates went high, maybe we were getting close to one, but he thought that, like, that's gone. And I still, I totally agree with him. I mean, and it's like, it was really cool hearing it from someone else that, you know, it seems like the economy and cash flow is still going on. It's like, when I start talking about a recession, I'm saying to myself, I just don't see it. And in the aspect of what he said, even if there was one there, I think it's over anyway. I mean, there's a lot of moving pieces here, but it's just hard to comprehend that, you know, you're going to back down from a three to two and a half to two to a minus one, you know? It's like, okay, hold it. You know, I just don't see it. So we'll see how it checks out, you know? You know, just ask the NFIB small business number from Tuesday. They don't see this economy slowing. You know, it's funny, I was on with Oliver Renick this morning and we were talking about the data has been pretty consistent along the way. What changed in the last two weeks is some of the comments from the Fed, frankly, their rhetoric, which now they're a quiet period so they can't say anything, but a lot of their rhetoric about what they would do and their comments on inflation that I think really sent the bond market into hyperspace here. But I mean, the PPI, CPI, those numbers came out muted, but certainly in line to where the expectations were. So yeah, this is a crazy market. There's a lot of opinions. Are they going to raise rates or not? And I'm frankly in the camp, they may lower rates, I keep saying raise because it's been on my brain for the last nine quarters, but are they going to lower rates? I don't think anytime soon, I'm in the camps, they're not raising now. Yes. If they do, I'd be wrong. Well, you know it's crazy, man. And folks, okay, we get the Fed Front futures up right now and you have an 81% probability that on the meeting July 31st they're going to drop the rates. Yeah, you have one meeting, Kevin, that's it. I'm not saying that I might be wrong on this. And Jerome Powell and some of the comments from the FOMC certainly says that they're willing to move rates. It's just, boy, it's hard for me. I've just never seen it in my career. Lowering rates in an overall economy this healthy. Oh, I agree, man. I just thought it up. I totally agree, Kevin. I'm saying to myself, man, you know what I'd love to do? I'd love to have bomb fires. And I'd like to take the lighter fluid and really putting it on and blowing it up. And they lower rates, man. That's exactly what we're going to get. Okay, let's supercharge this baby. One of the interesting, Kevin, just going down to the... when do they expect two rate hikes, right? And it's crazy that by September the market has 48% of two rate hikes. You know, out of the three minutes. Sorry, see, I'm doing the same thing. Cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts. I am just having a tough time connecting those dots. Based on, you know, everything that I've seen in my trading career, it's tough to connect those dots. It'd be really interesting to see what happens in the market if they really do have two rate cuts in three meetings. I think it would go to the bone. I can't picture it not going to the bone. Or what if they don't, right? Then what if they don't? And those fed fun futures are so far off. I don't know. It's going to have some volatility. That's for sure. October always kind of rough months. If they don't, like, come down, if the market expects them to come down, it's like, I can see a little rough patch at the end of the summer. Then maybe they get down to half a point. They'll blow people's minds really, like, wow. Here's the number to think of, guys. Here's the last thought. Since October 3rd, when Drollpal made his infamous statement that we're a long way from being neutral and yields were at 3.1% at then, right? The S&P 500 is down 1.3%. 39 points. I've not spent a wild time since October. Folks, right here, 45 minutes from now. Kevin, you have a great one, safe one. We look forward to the program. Have a great day, guys. Thanks, Kevin. Stay right here, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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What's the highest volume equities at this time? Oh, Dave and Busters are taking it on the Chin Men. That's, you know... I heard the guys at Thinkorswim in Fast Market. They were talking about that yesterday. They were. Down 11 bucks, trading 40 bucks. You get Beyond Meat up 8, 134. Was that in 184 yesterday? It was, yeah, two days ago maybe. You get Tesla down a buck 40. Let's see, we're... Roco is up 4 bucks. Not bad. So if we go inside the NDX let's take a look at the NDX 100. Semantic is up 1.8. Makata Libre is up 1.5. Gilead's up 1.4. Starbucks is up 1.3. Starbucks. Yeah, look at this taking away from it though. Look at this. Holy cow. Western Digital's down 4.5. Micron's down 4.5. Amat's down 4.5. Lam Research's down 4. Is nobody going to buy any chips anymore? What's going on? NASDAQ folks, this is where the huge problems can come in in the NASDAQ and the NDX 100. And these chips, man, they can bring the NASDAQ up and down like, and then it just drags the S&P. Can you jump around to the news after you finish? I'm curious what... Something's doing something, yeah. Let's see. Not much there, right? Doesn't matter which one we bring up. Maybe Lam Research, yeah. And then you open one more time. Good try. Micron, maybe after... I mean, it could be, but they all kind of... Downgraded to in line Evercore. So Evercore might be the culprit. They might have done a big downgrade, right? Evercore ISIM list. Okay, so that's one downgrade. Micron... They're just selling them, man. Interesting article. I suspect there's something out there though. Interesting article that does not have to do with what we're seeing today, I mean, they've been struggling, man, just to talk about some volatility. Yeah. So what's going to be cool here, watching this, folks, is to see how it comes into this lower swing point of $32.17. So we had 28 million shares there. You're coming... This is like a really anemic balance. Oh, yeah. And so what is sticking out here is that December 26th low. And that's, you know, if you get... That's the SMHs. If we get the chips down there, I guess what, market's going down there. So SMHs are only off of $1.64. Yeah. It just might be a downgrade of some of those leaders, maybe. They're selling them down, man. They're selling them down. That's pretty intense. Oil. All right. Let's go. It's Wednesday, man. We get those oil inventory numbers at $10.30. July. July crude. So quite an acceleration, right? $51.49 that low of yesterday. We get a little pop. We're trading at $52.13. So we get the numbers at $10.30. Excuse me. It's about $10.21. We're going to jump in here. We jumped around during the break. We were looking for volatility trades with exposure, bullish, and bearish. One of the nice ones that lined up. Now, this has ticked a little bit positive, but they have a $52.00. They're $3.00 spreads. So we're going to have bullish exposure from $52.55. Bearish from $52.49. Excuse me. And here's our bullish trade. This is the one that's going to have 12 cents of intrinsic value. That's going to cost us $47. So you're paying $12.00 basically for value. You're paying $35.00 for premium. On the flip side, it's going to be the exact same usually. There's your $35.00 for premium. No intrinsic value. It's going to be big dollars. Representing $0.77. Add a few bucks on in commissions. You're looking at $0.80 give or take that you need to be away from $52.00 to reach a break even. My goodness. You need some big action. And the market. You've gotten a lot of volatility with Crude Man. Oh, you have. It's priced in some premium. You've got until $2.30. You have $3.00. Some days it's really not impossible but would be very rare. With the types of moves you're getting. The market is not just assigning premium for the time. Which is usually what happens here, right? But I believe with this type of price there's a lot of premium. Some of that premium is the fact that there's a implied volatility. There's a realistic estimation that it might go to $2.50 or something like that. You can see that. Can we just pull this up for a second? $1.00. $1.00. So when you look at this, my take, folks, is that we want to get down to this $44.00. That being said, this is not a lot of volume today in the oil market as you're getting to lower price. Last low out there had $943.00 or $332.00. Let me just see this intraday. I believe that was a week ago. So that was probably on the EIA. Pop up here, $52.25. Then you get this other one down here. This is... I mean, we had a big build last night and I put a big build in with it. We put a big... 5.6 or 5.6 million. Which is not a liar. I think the estimate is like an increase of a million or something like that. But looking at this, I'm bearish, but I think you're going to get a little pop here. I think this is still building cause for lower price. Well, if you're paying those types of premiums, you better be looking for a big pop, right? No, I'm with you. I think we're still going to be in that building cause. We've only been here five days and because we come down from 66, it's going to take more building cause in order to get that lower price. I think we're going to mess around a little here. We'll see when this shakes out, man. So let's just see how some of these... I think they had $52.25. So we just set it up with $52.00 on the bullish side. I think if we jump in here, there we go. So the noons, we're going to have $52.25. Now, we've ticked up. We're about the same, almost $12, $13, $14 pennies away from this one, but on the bearish side, you have value, right? So this is going to be our bearish spread. You're going to have $0.10, $0.15 of intrinsic value. So you're going to $0.33. There's your bullish, all premium, $0.19. He's talking about $52. Now, the difference being though, let's start to the downside. So you've got to make $0.52, plus a few, but you have $0.15. So if you're a little bit bearish, maybe, not the end of the world, but again, $0.52, even if you get a move to the bearish side, where you have your head start, you still need $0.35. And if you get the pop bullish, you need to go all the way to $0.52.75, almost talking about $0.65, before you break even, that you're capped out at $0.5375. So you need $0.65 a movement to start making money, and then you're capped out like a buck later if you really get down. So we'll see. $0.1026 right now. We get the numbers in four minutes, man. Let's go take it with the XLE. So the XLE out here, that's lower. $2.8 million shares. Well, that's going to be decent volume on it. Except it's going into... it's going up to $32 million. $1.22 million. We take a look at this. These things have ended up performed anyway. Oh, yeah, these... not XLE's still in trouble. We'll see. It pulled back pretty hard last night. It did. It's from the close last night to the open this morning. It said, whoa, lower prices. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We have the Dow Industries down 36. Nasdaq off 38. We're down 42. This looks like it wants to break out as low right now. Tommy and I come right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action. Included in Market Insights are specific buy-and-sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. 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I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity, then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today, log on to TFNN.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, is an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Chart today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. Dow is on $40 and has it got $38. S&P's off $7.5 and oil. Let's take a look at these oil numbers out here. So, headline number, crude oil inventories rising. 2.21 million barrels. Gas inventories rising. 764,000 barrels. Jumping back to the chart, seeing how we're hitting the market. Right now, you have oil trading $52.18. A little bit of a pop on that, but it pulled back pretty quickly, man. We're trading a $52.12 about coming into that number. You spike up to $52.32. And right back to where we were right now. So, we'll see how it... They got a lot of premium in there for not much movement at this particular point. And I guess as they break this down, we'll get the full breakdown within about a minute or two, usually, but I guess the entire build in cushing. So, I wonder where the expected breakdowns were of the cushing versus pad three, right? The variety. There we go. So, median estimate was a decline of a million barrels. We came in at a surplus of 2.2. Gas, pretty close. 764 versus a 900 build expected. Distalids, kind of a reversal of a 1.1 decline... excuse me, a million decline. Estimate was an increase of 1.1. And there's cushing, about 2 million barrels. You actually had a decrease in pad three crude. And look at the refinery utilization. They're ramping it back up, right? So, plus 1.4, estimate was plus 0.6. And crude input, it's minus $316,000. Look at that, inputs down. And production down as well. That's per day, huh? 360,000 per day. That's a lot. Oh, give it a few seconds, man. So, we're trading at $51.86, quite a little thrust, especially when the first head fake up to $52.30. We're now $0.50 off. Cheaper prices, man. We're going to be going for that low. It had at 5 a.m. of about $51.49. And it's not stopping, man. That's where some defined risk would be nice. I don't know how you navigate. We're now talking about a $0.60 bar on the span of about 30 seconds. Right. 877-927-6648. We're going to take a look at the broad market now. You have the, yeah, the Nasdaq is, Nasdaq's leading us down. You know, we just brought those chip stocks up. Yes. The Nasdaq folks, you got to love trading the Nasdaq because it's this, that thing, I mean, you know, it's only $20 a point in the futures. But the amount of points that this thing can move so fast is, like, amazing. Yeah. Right when we were coming into a break, that's when it was just breaking this low out here of the $74.98. You got $74.93. Now, you're breaking this with juice and saying, like, guess what? You know, you can go a lot lower now. Let's see. I suspect inside that it was still the same. Yeah. All the chip stocks. Yeah. 4.8, 4.6, 4.5, and 4.2. Can you pull up some of the fang stocks? I'm just curious because, you know, those chip ones are definitely going to hurt you, but they're not the biggest. So you got Facebook down, $1.20. Nothing to dismiss. That's a move. Google down $10. I mean, there's a 1% though in the negative and they're going to have big, big carries. Amazon. Netflix. Yeah, pretty similar. Microsoft. So what you want to do is keep your eye on Microsoft, folks. The reason I'm saying this is that Microsoft seems to be the strongest stock in the NDX100 and just in the market in general. So if you look at this, you're going to see that it's pretty powerful. I would agree. It's cool, isn't it? I mean, the chart's insane from that 2016. But just looking at, like, they don't seem like they're going to have a big deal with Microsoft. They've already dealt with those issues. They have an amazing cloud business. They have the amazing software service with Word. We have two different services. We have the Word service and then, not the word, the office. Office 365, I believe. And then with Natalie, we have the accounting deal. So it's very inexpensive. I mean, you're talking about something. Businesses especially. It's very affordable for soft. You don't get to buy them anymore. You've got to pay it every year. It's amazing how they all just flip that switch and that's how. But yeah, let alone. So this is the number to watch, folks. I was talking about this yesterday. If Microsoft closes under this 131.87, 131.37 this week, that's telling me, hey, the correction's on because this is the strongest stock. It looks to me like Microsoft wants to go higher. That bar from last week was great, man. That closes low. It's like, okay, well, the strongest stock closes low. Your probability goes a lot higher that, you know, the rest of these equities are going to get sold. The other flip side is it's basically at all-time highs. No, I know. To point to a reversal for the one stock that's like literally crushing highs might be the, we'll see what happens in terms of Apple and they could, what can we go back to the description for Microsoft? What's their market cap right now? With that chart really, yeah, one billion. Excuse me, trillion. Look at that. That's what I knew if it was at all-time highs, it's right around that area. You could see them take off, man. If you see Apple facing some big problems with trade problems, if you see Apple facing big problems with antitrust and Google and Facebook, I don't see those hitting Microsoft. No. You might see a reversal and you still be okay and sit at all-time highs as some of those tech stocks really struggle. You know, I just pulled up the 13Fs and you can see Morgan Stanley is going to be kind of happy. It looks like they've got another third of a position. Now that you look at it, this is March 31st, so we don't know if it's still on. Yeah, that even could have been January, but that would have been amazing if it was January, because that was a huge pullback. It was in the lowest December, so it had to be after December, in between December and March. That's a great time to be by it, man. The market was going up. Yeah, we got State Street going back. They don't 4% of it. Look at that. Now, State Street, that's going to be some of the ETF structures, because they're the I think they're the trustee of the SPI, actually, let me see. I can't pull that up quick enough. I think they have the trustee of the SPI, though. Bottom line is that we get some action out here. Two-way action, but that Nasdaq looks to me like it wants a lower price. We get over the gold. Gold is creeping higher out here, folks. This gold contract wants higher price. You're at, yep, 660 right now. You got 164,000 contracts. What we did do yesterday is we rejected lower price. You had a lighter volume come in. I like how this is setting up coming in for Thursday and Friday, so we can just stay up on this level. Last time we got a high there of 331,000 contracts. That was 1352. You get another high of 1348 which had 400,000. So, you're not going to get 400 today, but these things hang up there in price and won't be bad. Let's check back to oil. Where are we going to be? We're right back at 52. Right where we started, man. That's got to be frustrating if you've made that volatility trade. This is where quick fingers can never hurt, man, in terms of yet an opportunity here maybe to close out that bearish trade. If you thought it was going to be bullish, I'm not saying I would have even, you know, but just something to consider when you get a move that goes from 52.30 down to 51.64 might be time to, you know, if you don't think that move's going to be continuing, you always want to be revaluating that trade because we've seen it many times. The first move is not always a move that hangs and before we're done, we might be looking for a $50 oil, the way this move sometimes. You get a lot of moving pieces out here. Seems like they might have priced that volatility correctly coming in. If you're getting 60 cents one way, 50 cents the other, and it's only 8 minutes after the news, and they were pricing that until 2.30. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We'll go with that man, come up with that man, Teddy Kegstad. Dow, right now. Dow is down 22. Nasdaq's off 36. S&P's off 670. Silver's up 4 cents. Kingdoll's up 26. Come right back. 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As we do each and every Wednesday on the body past the hour and every trading day folks you can reach Teddy at 4x-trading-unlocked.com That's 4x-trading-unlocked.com Teddy Cakes that. What's going on brother? Good morning guys. Good to see you guys again. Morning Teddy. You too man. You too. No doubt man. How's life? Things are good. We have some interesting scenarios to talk about today with the currency markets. What do you want to start? I want you to sell about a thousand contracts in the dollar index first. That's a good place to start. Sure. Well the dollar index I think is going to see a lot of action I think the next couple of days. We have some economic numbers that are going to affect it. We have the CPI today and we have the import-export index numbers coming out tomorrow and then Friday I believe is retail sales. All of which I think are going to affect the dollar index. The reason being is that they're also bond market numbers and with the stance now that we know that there's a little pressure for their fed and probably might be cutting the rates possibly in the not too distant future. I think that's going to have a little bit of a play on the currencies especially the dollar. Yes. And remember a couple weeks ago we were looking for a bounce on the currencies against the dollar which we did get over the past few weeks some are a little bit more extreme but now we have a divergence going on. So the US dollar seems to be gaining strength against all of the lesser major currencies like the Canada, the Yen and a couple other currencies. Okay. We have the euro and the pound today which were slightly higher while the other ones were lower so but now they're starting to fade and pull back. So I think that if you start to see the euro-US dollar turn towards making new lows today especially selling lower I got a sell signal on Monday in that market with the high being your risk level and so far they tried to challenge it today and they failed the same is going on in the British pound. So I think that if those start to erode and become a bearer then you're going to see dollar strength come into the market in which we're going to start to see a new trend and then the dollar index obviously would be rallying against that going higher. Interesting. Yes. So you're saying that the euro for the last couple weeks we went from 111 we were at 113 so you're figuring that the euro pulls back right? Right. Well Friday last Friday was the blow off top I think for that rail. Okay. I think that's a good level to trade against for both the pound and for the euro would be Friday's high so if you're a bearer I wouldn't want to be short above that. Nice. Yeah and that's where if you watch the Tiger TV folks that was quite a move Friday huh? 112 to 1348 huh? Yeah. Right. Right. Absolutely. Yeah. Interesting. And the yen I know you like the yen guys so I think that if this dollar is turning then you're going to see the US dollar yen pound excuse me I'm sorry the US dollar yen will turn around then. Okay. So 10840 are you looking for like a 110 again or what are we looking for there? I would say yeah probably I think that's a good little area now I'm not looking for a major turn that's not at all what I'm looking for because we had the G20 meeting coming up in a couple weeks. Yeah. So I think that if your listeners are trade especially like the euro you had a monster move over to pass like a week and a half but that looks like a monster move because it's been in such a tight range for six months a two dollar move all of a sudden looks like it was crazy to happen in the markets right? Right. So you're really looking for consolidation from kind of willy out with all of these probably right? Is that what we're looking at? Yes I think so. I think that's what we're going to do is we're going to start to establish the upper end of what's going to be a range trade for the next couple of months. Okay cool. Yeah no you can see that I can definitely see that because we had fast movement right after fast movement it's got to take a breather right all of them probably. Now what can happen is if we do get a rate cut in the United in the U.S. then that's going to cause either a big move up to set that to raise the range or to press the range lower depending on the currencies. So but that needs to be seen we need a rate cut for that to happen otherwise they think what we're doing is we're just establishing a wide range it's not going to be and I don't think we're going to see the euro up at 125 we'll let alone going down to popularity you know right so and but with the Swiss that's another key indicator too is let's see what happens with that if it can make a rally up to parity you know and hold above that well then we know that Dowler definitely is gaining strength again and we'll probably see them back above making new highs probably up to 103 104 handle you know this would be over the next month and a half this is not going to happen over. So that Swiss came down quite a bit right 102 to uh actually with 99 I mean that's four months but that's interesting right I mean that's right look at that much movement compared to what the Swiss has done here sure and the Canada did the same thing if you guys look at a daily Canada chart with just a week and a half you have the highest high and the lowest low on the chart that's four or five months yeah that's quite a move man yeah so and that's why I think there's that looking at this divergence in the currencies if this is what's if they're the leading indicator like remember how two weeks ago we looked for the Swiss and the Canada to be they were the first little indicator the dollar so now maybe this is the same thing that's occurring again today or over the past couple sessions so a rally in the US dollar Swiss a rally in the US dollar Canada which is going on and look at that low into Canada that low was a gap open lower and then it closed above the low of that big exacerbated down day prior to that so he's looking at folks is that the low of the big day was 132 62 and then yeah he closed that 132 69 I say okay cool yeah you know it's going to be wild man I mean is that you look at these interest rates it seems like interest rates are going down all over the world so it's like who's going to get the lowest rates and I guess it's going to be the currencies going to be whoever has the highest rates of the lowest rates right absolutely who would have sunk that too I mean 20 years ago 30 years ago if you were going to say that we'd be riding low rates like this for as long as we have right I think everyone would scratch their heads and be like what are you talking about I think you're right right yeah I mean it's it's you know we were just talking to Kevin Hinks earlier and it's hard to wrap your head around that you know the economy seems to be going fine and if you look at the Fed fund futures rate was the July one was what 89% 80% for cut at the next meeting not this not June yeah July and then there's a 2% in September was it September October that there was the probability of 48% to get 2% yeah so the third meeting from now it's almost like a 50% that there's 2 cuts by there in there within 3 meetings counting June as the first yeah pretty well are you guys curious about why they would actually really be cutting rates right now I think this is not the time to be cutting rates it's almost going to be interesting about which way they go right Teddy it's like if they do that many cuts like wow is the market going to go through the moon and then it's like but what if they don't because it's like priced into the Fed fund futures there's going to be a reaction on that side as well and if they there's good arguments on both sides there is and if they do I think we just say is that okay what's going on out here we don't know right they're supposed to be ahead a little bit to be cutting at all-time highs wow jeez what are they ahead of listen folks every trading day check it out forex-trading-unlock.com forex-trading-unlock.com Teddy you have a great week safe week man we look forward to speaking next Wednesday that was great thank you stay right there folks Tommy and I come right back now it's flattened as it's off 19 S&P's down 2.5 we'll come right back it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too sign up today I think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7, 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce. Gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX and bonds, South African RAND as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations as of April 1 of this year the gold report currently has 8 active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8% for each open trade new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today Basil Chapman has a special subscriber webinar coming up Wednesday June 12 at 5pm called the Tide in this webinar Basil will be demonstrating techniques that can help one identify whether the tide is coming in or going out that is whether a trend is bullish or bearish in a variety of time frames and Basil will be speaking specifically to indices, currencies commodities, interest rates and key stocks. The technical tools that Basil will be discussing are available on almost all software packages that will be shown in historical context as well as live for current market setups. Identifying the key trend allows one to trade with the tide rather than against it. Subscribers also gain immediate access to 3 archived workshops so you can get started right away when you sign up for all the details on the opening call and Basil's upcoming subscriber webinar the tide this coming Wednesday visit the front page of TFNN.com and sign up today This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com 21 S&Ps off three and a half and we talk about the tide man. Where's it going? We got our man Basil Chapman out tonight at 5 o'clock. Amazing. June 12th it's here. Basil is going to be in there with subscribers to the opening call starting tonight at 5 p.m. eastern time the opening call Basil's daily trading service will be in there for 90 minutes the tide talking about whether the tide is coming in it's going out that is whether the trend is bullish or bearish he's going to be looking at a variety of timeframes he'll also speak about indices, currencies, commodities, rates, key stocks you know he has the monthly, the daily, the hourly or the 120 minute and this is an hour and a half workshop folks and this is a pure education big time. He does a great job there's no bored low moments in those 90 minutes that Basil puts out. So this will be archived it'll be on the subscriber page probably either by tonight or tomorrow morning if you can't attend live you can't have the 90 minutes but I encourage you to attend live because he's going to be taking questions and plus you get 30 days of the opening call new subscribers getting money back guarantee great day go check it out sign up for the opening call right on the front page and you'll be in there at five o'clock tonight June 12 the tide baby June 12 the tide and speaking of the tide of oil a little bit of volatility man it can't quite figure out where it wants to go we spiked down to 51 64 we're back up to 52 30 boom we're back down to 51 82 we'll find out the day is young the contract goes no doubt yes and if we get over just look at that dollar just one more time you can see that this dollars my take is that we just we're building cars to lower price but just as Teddy said I think we had a little consolidation here you know sideways move we'll see this shakes out okay any back and forth okay this is this is the patience patience in many things in life trading is one of them for sure big time yeah stay right there folks we have fast something in our man Mr. Basil Chapman Steve Rhodes Dave White be back this afternoon thanks man don't skip Basil folks tonight the tide