 Welcome back to the PGA tour. It has been quite some time since we've had a PGA tour event Took a whole week off for the Olympics where my guys Andrew Shafley went out and got it done Won the gold medal Rory Sabatini finishing second to get silver after a 61 on Sunday and CT Pan I Was gonna see CT Pond. I still say it. I think it's CT Pan. I learned a lot but With that seven golfer playoff coming in with the bronze, but that's in the past We're moving on to the WGC FedEx st. Jude Invitational so welcome on in to the Fandall PGA Q&A for this week I'm your host Brandon Ghadoula on the managing editor over at numberfire.com I'll be talking about the field the betting odds on Fandall sportsbook the daily fantasy slate on Fandall my win simulations and whatever else you want because this is a Q&A format so hit up the comment section on YouTube and Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for this week's event possibly have some questions about the The women's Olympic event kicking off tonight as well I did a podcast on that short one about 20 minutes long I have some articles up on number fire as well But I'm very excited to see them play the same course that we saw the men play last week so Let's dig in to this field on Fandall sportsbook looking at the very top of things with Brooks Capcom at eleven to one to win Colin Mora Kala 12 to one is Andrew Shafley Jordan Spieth both 14 to one Justin Thomas the defending champ here When he notably lost strokes putting and still one which is wild 16 to one Rory McElroy kind of doing some things without the hat at the Olympics was pretty impressive 18 to one same as Dustin Johnson Daniel Berger a two-time winner at this course not specifically this event not since the WGC event It has two wins here in 2016 and 2017 at 22 to one same as Victor Hoffman Lily we stays in Patrick Cantley so you get the idea right like we have a lot of great names in this field because it's a WGC and That is something that should Should drive all of our decisions for this week whether it's a bet So someone like Brooks sets up well has historically played well here But he's got to beat out a lot of guys at you know 11 to one odds and With Brooks specifically he's very hard to put into a model because he doesn't always play the same game week after week he can have weeks where he is Engaged and weeks where he's not I still like him as a fandal play I still like him honestly is a bet even though my model hates it because like I don't make too many manual adjustments for Brooks Or for anybody for that matter If I did Brooks would probably rate out pretty well I would have him close to the favorite Based on what I you know would expect subjectively but based on the objective data a little bit overvalued But again elite field pretty deep field and on fandal historically that means we're going to see In a no-cut event the optimal line-up spend a little bit more than we typically see in a full-field event with a cut We're going to see the winner come from a higher Portion of the salary pool than what's average for a full-field event And so that kind of says we need a little bit more balance in our line-ups despite the fact that it is a no-cut event Guys effectively do miss the cut at no-cut events by finishing, you know Significantly over par Even at our round par so guys like John Rom last year Joaquin Neiman max homa Keegan Bradley Mark lesion Matthew Wolf, you know, yes, they played out all four rounds but This is as damning as a missed cut So, you know, you're going to have the urge So want to save salary so that you can go ahead and roster Brooks roster Jordan speed Whoever it is that that's your favorite for this week But just bear in mind that that's not really how things work even in a no-cut event So again, if you have any questions hit up the YouTube chat Facebook Twitter or Twitch and I will get to those But for now, I'm going to keep breaking down the course itself TPC South wind I always like to start with data golf for just about, you know, all of the Historical event data all of the course fit data and I like to look at this this tool here What drives variation and scoring because this shows how golfers tend to separate what stats separate the golfers Is it that they you know have better iron play better putting and that's kind of what gets them out of head Gets them away from the pack. Well a TPC South wind We got to be careful because this is a full event average in this event has been at different courses so I'm gonna show some other stuff here too, but In 2020 it was iron play with a de-emphasis on driver and a de-emphasis on the putter Which is kind of rare to see any any course show a little bit of a de-emphasis With the putter and again, you know With it being rare to see last year because JT won with negative strokes game putting The year prior putting actually outperforms the tour average by a pretty good margin there and irons sort of fell off So it's kind of contradictory there But if you're digging back into like a lot of history for TPC South wind You want to look at the FedEx st. Jude classic as well, which is a TPC South wind in 2018 and earlier Dustin Johnson won that dominated in 2018 that year we saw the irons really stand out not so much the putting Which typically would imply that you know the winners the guys at the very top had really good iron play and that's what we see here But it's a good iron play not necessarily putting But you know does that does that sort of? Stick around for those prior years as well we'll sort of for them, you know for the most part iron play very important here and Occasionally drivers more important occasionally drivers less important Pudding can kind of come and go but the one constant really is iron play and That is just the key stat for me again this week It pretty much always is but if you can you look here at the tour averages T to green iron play is just the most important stat for separating it's more important than Around the green and off the tee combined so for this week and for all week stroke scan approach is the number one stat Shows getting around the green. I think is at least something that we can consider if we're going to de-emphasize driver Now show why I think we can de-emphasize driver a little bit in just one second But if we're gonna de-emphasize driver possibly putter then that has to put a natural boost on the wedges But speaking of that drivers You know and how we're gonna factor it in Looking at this course fit tool from data golf as well We can see that driving distance is less important here than it is at your average PGA tour course Kind of substantially so Which you know anytime you have that that increases variance because the shorter hitters can be at times Sort of quote-unquote disqualified From contention. That's not going to be the case this week. So with that in mind Stroking it off the tee, you know basically Disproportionately values distance over fairways hit So anytime we get that I think we can go against stroking off the tee to some degree So that's why I'm looking more at the wedge play than typical this week because it does outperform just barely the PGA tour average in terms of importance But we're seeing a little bit of a de-emphasis on driver and added emphasis on irons more than usual even Putting about the same and so around the green gets a little bit of a boost there So my key stats for the week stroke scan approach number one was getting around the green Kind of number two, but not something that I'm gonna wait in super heavily birdie a better rate gained which is kind of obvious, but in a no-cut event it's important to remember that Golfers are gonna tie and get the same amount of finishing points for their finishing bonus But if a golfer has substantially more birdies and bogeys to get to that same total score that golfer is gonna make way more Fantasy points over the course of four rounds someone who is much more par heavy. So being able to break par Matters every week, but I think especially matters in a no-cut event where there's no real downside for making a bogey Aside from sliding down a leaderboard a bit So long as you can bounce back with that birdie and a birdie and bogey is worth more points than two pars on Fandall greens are Bermuda For this week if you want to dig into putting splits, but kind of those are my key stats I'm gonna I'm gonna look a little bit past driving and Look at that iron wedge play potter play which Kind of screams Jordan speed For me again if you have any questions hit up the YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch chat And I will be happy to go over them So I think we know what to expect from the course. I'm gonna jump over to my spreadsheet here Look at the top of the field From a salary standpoint These are some of the most important stats that I'm looking at this week Also, just kind of all of the strokes game stats as usual these strokes strokes game stats come from My database Which adjusts for field strength and it also waits for recency So that's why they're not gonna look exactly the same as you would if you if you just pull up pjtour.com and look at the season These do account for field strength and also again that recency So I think it's a bit of an added element to the data that we typically would it be looking at so We've got Brooks Kepka as the favorite at 11 to 1 and the highest salary golfer at 12,200 and He's rating out only three point one percent likely for me to win It's not great. It's not terrible. It's a pretty flat structure this week in terms of the win odds In my simulations just because of how the field sort of breaks out And is kind of relatively even at the top. So I Can't really nitpick Brooks At all Honestly, um, you know, the the short game is not as good as it could be but we know that what he really does best Is be really good teeter green. We know that the wedges can be there We know his putter can get really hot even though it hasn't quite been super hot lately He is particularly good on Bermuda Getting about point three strokes putting over the past 100 rounds on that surface according To data from fantasy national that puts him in the 71st percentile in this Smaller field, but that's still very viable, especially compared to someone like color more cala who has just not been a good Bermuda putter in his career His putting splits are going to be a bit of a nightmare till they start to stabilize more toward his numbers since he changed his putting grip, but More cala definitely more volatile Because of the putter then you would typically like to see for someone at a salary of 12,000 zander I mean It's pretty much all green aside from the fairways, which are still above average The the only issue that you can make for zander is that he just won the gold medal He's traveling back and again. He also just won the gold medal. So he might not be totally locked in Uh, and typically we would like zander at a no-cut event because where he thrives I'm not particularly in on zander and for anyone who doesn't know that's saying a lot because I've been on zander all the time Because I look at data and his data looks like this always so Probably just avoiding zander for this week and kind of Going more toward jordan spieth for a little bit of salary savings 11,700 Again, if we're if we're de-emphasizing or we're okay de-emphasizing driving stats Then a lot points to spieth because he's got he does have that red flag. So he's 25th percentile or worse in stroke scan off the tee went with those adjustments For field strength and recency But everything else is good 80th percentile approach 92nd percentile around the green The pudding is not quite where you would expect for spieth, but And bremita's not necessarily his best surface, but There's still a lot to like for spieth and then there's dj who I think probably won't get a whole lot of buzz because his form is quote-unquote bad, but that's a little bit of a It's not quite fair He's also a two-time winner at this course that might bump him back up Especially with all of these guys or a lot of these guys at the top traveling back From the olympics. So I think dj is a great tournament pivot. He's one of my favorite plays But my building blocks are going to actually be brooks and spieth among these top five Question from salvatore on youtube top plays 9000 to 9900 uh, hopefully you're not too set on those salary buckets because I don't love a lot of golfers in that range um And two of my favorite are just above that with patrick reid matthew fits patrick at 10 1 and 10 000 But if you want me to be more specific then it's a little bit easier because We have jason coke rack harris english and quarry connors So I'll pull up read fits connor's english coke rack if I can remember all that Did him out of order there at the end, but That'll be all right because their salaries are only a hundred dollars different for coke rack in english, but These are kind of the guys that i'm honing in on in this range Uh for me reads really intriguing because he disappointed at the olympics So he has that travel. He's he's been traveling a lot which probably paid uh played parts into why he wasn't quite himself but You can really make a case for a read being under salaried under appreciated here at 10 100 um great short game, which is what we know from reid But not the worst uh birdie maker either 62nd percentile on this field like that's not bad Uh, and we've seen him. He's got multiple wins in small field events. Uh, he has At least one w gc win off top of my head. He won a mexico I think reads really intriguing. I think matt fits patrick as well But he does fall right outside that um, so i'm gonna focus in on uh coke rack conners in english because i think Uh, they are all to some degree. You can make the case under salaried conners does he mean he did play uh at the olympics, but elite elite ball striker 88th percentile Off the t 91st percentile approach. I would imagine In this field only like xander can say that that he's at least 88th percentile in both of those um Don't quote me on that but uh, I would imagine that's the case. It's the short game. That's the concern for him But again, if we're not if we don't need distance If putting isn't always the most important stat of tpc south wind again G at got that win losing strokes putting i'm not saying conners is going to win but He has like that high end upside and is is potential because uh, he's such a good ball striker and also Probably one of the main reasons we see approach be so important At tpc south wind is that these are some of the smallest greens on tour Only pebble beach and harbour town have smaller average green sizes Among courses on the typical pga tour rotation than tpc south wind so Like anytime you see easily elite iron play. That's your drier attention. That's what we go with conners And we don't have that quite so much with coke rack or english, but It's definitely good. Uh, at least field average are better for both of these guys and english really good short game right now Really good on bermuda and then coke rack better iron play Really good off the tee because of that distance But the putting for him has been quite strong as well. So I would say uh, most specifically in the thanks cow for producer cow adjusting The the the top plays from 9 000 to 10 100 but between 99 and 9 000 I think the better plays come from the lower salary tier there with conners coke rack and english uh Mr. Jackie moon just stopping by to say hello to you and jim if he's not So jim's not going to be here actually it's going to be tom vecchio So stick around for tom will come on and answer all of your mob questions uh for tonight Question from forest on facebook. How are the new york yankees doing? Forest buddy. I got no idea. Uh, you have to ask tom because Baseball is outside of my expertise Uh, all right, so I think that uh overall All That Middle tier is pretty barren, but I think it's a really I know I know this view is like really hard to to hone in on This is what I'm looking at most of the most of the week, but I think Here I'll sort it by just that range um Like there are some names highlighted here like web and in tearo hat and get like the maybe sort of Yes, jim is happy healthy and alive. I've just heard from him a few minutes ago. So jim's good to go But this tier maybe not I mean web simpson's health could be like, I don't know if he's fully healthy. I think he's happy. I know he's alive But web simpson It was kind of dealing with some injuries hasn't been quite himself Tearo hat and as well. I mean these guys rate out like top 12 Uh, you could make the case that you just build lineups around this range And you would build a lineup where you would feel like you Could hit the winner out of all six of your golfers. That is a must-have feeling in a wgc event you know Yeah, there will be A temptation to go down and roster golfers in the 7 000 range the 8 000 range would think which I think is more viable the 8 000 range I'll show some guys there, but You could realistically just kind of hover in this range I just find myself with a lack of options and I don't like to get overexposed to golfers who I do have question marks about um Neiman answer cam smith shane lawry, they all played in the olympics I know kory connor's did but his salary is a little bit lower And his ball striking is really good Um, so i'm kind of just like out on most of that 9 000 range Let me pull up the 8 000 range Ish, there are a few guys below that who I lumped in here right I went down to ryan palmer um So coke rack I just I discussed sung gm I can't get there this week after he had a disappointing showing at the olympics And I only say this because it was important for him if he had meddled he would have uh He he wouldn't have had to serve his mandatory two years of military service in south korea So like he skipped the open for that Didn't really put it together I don't really want to bounce Bank on a bounce back from him this week. I think we can kind of go elsewhere Even in a low salary range will zala torus I mean You could easily easily make the case that he's under salaried however. He did withdraw from the open with the back injury So what's his health? That's the question mark There's it's probably well worth a few lineups or possibly You know a bet on zala torus finished me top 10. I don't think uh a win is something that I would go with With questionable health, especially with all of those guys thought he'd have to beat But zala torus someone who i'm certainly considering I'll force him sprinkles brian harman just a better golfer than the salary indicates his irons have not been particularly good lately Which is why i'm not higher on harman that I used to be higher on harman now I'm not quite so high on him just because the iron play hasn't been there. He's been carrying himself with the elite short game So kind of out on that, but billy horse roll plays tpc south wind well I've kind of reached the point with horse roll where look I I care about recent stats I care about course fit More than course history because course history Very easily becomes dated year after year But there are certain golfers who don't really have the skill set anymore To thrive at certain courses. And so I think for me billy horse roll is just one of those golfers where at the right course I like horse roll kind of like bubble watson even though the bubbles like billy horse roll plus in this in this Example but horse roll fits from that standpoint almost same for ian polter He's got I think three top fives here the past five years something like that Pretty good pretty good results and again Not too bad overall 36th relative to this field which in in my Just combination of long-term adjusted form and the stats that i'm looking at but I mean for him It's the ball strike. He's really bad. And so this that's kind of the thing with this field is right after around harm in 87 Like things drop off a lot and you really have to make make excuses make cases for the golfers below that and Just based on what what we've seen historically from no cut events Like you you got to be careful with The value plays you're going after so Let me pull up the official world golf rankings here quickly. Let me see if I can do this on the fly Let's do the past like 50 Of the wgcs. So this is the match play of billy horshal one Speaking of you know, but these are like the the winners of recent wgcs more cala jt read rory brooks Kisner at the match play. So that's different. Uh dj zander jt Bubba at the match play Phil justin rose a decky dj dj like You're probably not going to find a long shot winner And so the more value golfers you put in your lineup The fewer chances you have of hitting the winner realistically That's not to say that the optimal lineup or some of the the winning lineups won't have value plays, but Like that balance more balanced build. I think is going to be crucial for this week Question from salvatore suggests our players just start build with um, so I would say my my like core plays for this week are going to be brooks um Which I will not be alone in he is the favorite and he also is the highest salary golfer My research has shown that combination is pretty much a guarantee that you're going to be the chalkiest golfer in the field um Jordan spieth as well, uh Counts but somehow I actually Have not gotten to This guy here Daniel burger 22 to 1 10,900. So burger is someone who I think is like Under salary he's got two wins here I began 2016 2017 before this was the wgc, but like yeah, not all of his stats are are green um But 95th percent I adjusted irons, which again the most important stat for this week Good driver very very nice stat there 69th percentile And someone who like he's not super long off the tee But he doesn't have to be this week So I think a lot sets up well for burger But then I would also say harris anglish is a core play for me Like I would not be surprised if his salary came out at like 9600 I think that that savings is you know, I'm not saying he should be 10,100 instead of 9100 but Like that goes a long way separating between you know, that can get you back up to someone like a brooks kapka or someone like a spieth So I would say my three key plays probably brooks or spieth Kind of a coin flip there But then daniel burger and harris anglish, I should probably say are my two core plays From there. I'm I can be a little bit more uh persuaded one way or the other but burger I think everything sets up well for him this week I'm going to end things quickly by looking at my win simulations Just to see if there's betting value honestly. I'm Not in love with this week from a betting standpoint uh, just the way that things like Kind of shake out zander is the most likely to win This does not account for things like I think zander's probably jet lagged and not that engaged This is just a data data focused Simulation of what we should expect. So I'm kind of out on zander More calla's second up. He's kind of overvalued. So it was spieth, but I'm okay with spieth because I think zander more calla after their uh close runs or zander's win, but more calla uh, almost Getting a medal. Um, I would say spieth Probably has it just naturally an increased. Uh, when win rate there DJ I think is intriguing Hovland was at the olympics Can't lays it hasn't been quite himself, but you know, honestly, it's it's kind of tough read again under salary probably but Traveling back. So my favorite bets for this week probably going to be spieth daniel burger um, and then jason co crack as well who does rate out as a again a negative value, but I kind of would nitpick the guys who are rating out as positive expected values such as harman Connors, I think is a good play. Um You know for an outright possibly again I show I show the list of wgc winners. You're just gonna have a hard time Justifying long shots, but uh for a top 10, I would say corey connors makes a lot of sense But uh from an outright standpoint, I think daniel burger is like the one guy I'm settling in on most but that's gonna do it for me. Uh, tom is ready to go Talking about mlb as always. I have a lot to learn when it comes to this point on tuesday I just sit back and listen Uh and and figure out who I got to play so so tom give me like a one sentence overview of what I need to know for tonight So for tonight's late, we are expecting a little bit of rain at coors field, which obviously complicates things for You know the potential potential hitting stacks I would certainly look to the yankees and the white socks as some high upside stacks The tigers are a bit sneaky and then you know potentially taking a shot with dylan cease as a pitcher outside of zack wheeler Who of course is the number one option on tonight's slate? All right, i'm gonna i'm gonna inject that right into my lineups and i'm gonna sit back and listen to what else you have to say All right, so let's jump into the 4 p.m mlb q and a again I will be here all week because jim sanis is out. He is alive He is a wealth. He is well and healthy. Uh, just a quick recap on Some of this weather that I mentioned earlier on the podcast I just touched on it briefly there the chicago cubs at colorado rocky's game Again, this update is from kevin roth the best meteorologist for dfs scattered stormstein gradually winding down as we approach midnight local time I can't tell you if the storms will be over the stadium or not around game time All I can say is there's a chance for any and all outcomes colorado has been historically very patient with these kind of games So I think that'll meant they'll find a way to play this or not. That's what kevin roth is saying Again, it's just 4 p.m Uh eastern time right now. So we could be getting an update later and closer to lock So, uh, we do have some confirmed starting lineups. I'll hop on over to Uh, you know the lineup page will go through some hitters. Uh, actually I'll start off with the home run call So earlier today, uh during the podcast I Uh, I mentioned eric haas as my home run call going up against garret richards I wrote about haas today on number fire dot com really liking some of the Numbers he has the second home run call. I have today is going to be adam duval for the now Atlanta braves being traded from the marlins to the braves at the end of last week We look to adam duval splits versus lefty c's going up against john lester who's now on the St. louis cardinals and yes duval strikes out a ton at a 35.5 strikeout rate, which is Terrible, uh, that's just bad for an mlb hitter, but he has a very solid 207 iso He's coming in with a massive 51.9 percent fly ball rate in this along with the 37.0 percent hard contact rate Those numbers are absolutely phenomenal of a 51 percent fly ball rate puts him in a spot to hit a home run Really in any match of that he has and we look to lester who's allowing over two home runs per nine to righties this year Uh, that's absolutely terrible. I've obviously never been a big strikeout pitcher He's not allowing a massive amount of fly balls, but he's still getting burned by them with an 18.3 percent rate So adam duval will be my second home run call on tonight's slate Let's uh jump in to some Questions salvatore from youtube saying peter lanzo and norio stack was on point last night. Yeah Like i was saying like andrew heaney last night Is that picture that has shown a great strikeout rate and and he has a 28.2 percent rate You know coming into yesterday and that was great But he's also allowing you know way too many home runs to righties and we saw one from ryan mount castle and we saw one from Wasn't treatment. I think cedric mullins hit one austin haze hit one like they Really like showed through and and that's what we want to be always looking for like that home run upside Really pushing your lineups to the top of leaderboards Jerry is asking vado and devers home run call. I'm on board with both of them. Like it's not like we're going to be too afraid of uh It's rod re uh, who's uh, uh, wandi peralta is pitching who's pitching for detroit again. It's peralta right willy peralta Excuse me for detroit. I think that's fine Kanto my eta is pitching for the Minnesota minnesota twins tonight going up against the reds for joey vado I think you can certainly be looking to him as well. I kind of like the reds tonight has a stack That's not getting mentioned too much Kyle is asking what giants are best for a stack tonight I'm going to be on board with the giants again tonight just because Uh, they are in a good spot. Let me bring up, uh, another patreon. I got some teams pulled up Again, they're going up against, uh, madison bum garter a picture that Has certainly been struggling this year and you know, some of the stats and the underlying metrics that he has are some of the worst of his career And that's not something that he has historically shown For me, I'd be looking to rough posie even crawford in the lefty lefty split is something you could be going to It drops a little bit off of there You know Yastremsky really does have the splits that we'd like to see Combined with the fact that they are a little bit short-handed in their lineup still because they're dealing with some injuries I don't think umante wade jr. Is going to be in there, but we still wouldn't want him If floors is in there potentially you could be looking to him I wouldn't hate to hate taking a shot at him, but really the top portion of their lineup I would say crawford bryant and posie are the main three giants hitters that i'm looking for tonight Alvin white is asking are the braves and the giants the best non-cores stacks tonight? uh, so i'm on board the giants just mentioned them Uh, I mentioned them earlier this morning on the solo shot. So i'm on board with them the braves tonight have a 4.41 implied run total That is 14th on today's slate. That's right in the mid tier I actually don't anticipate the braves being that chalky tonight and I actually really do like them Especially a lot of their righty hitters now if we look at the braves quickly Because they made a few additions at the trade deadline Of course, we know that freddy freeman has some pretty neutral splits. You can be looking at him But austin riley whore haso lair and adam duvall all have big time home run upside They're all righties and as I just mentioned with john lester He's allowing over two home runs 2.09 home runs to be exact versus righties this season So I wrote about duvall today on numberfire.com. He's one of my favorite home run plays that I think he's gonna go under the radar And I actually think that the braves overall are going to be going under the radar with this 4.41 implied runs rule Like this just falls This is just no man's land, right You know, let's just say course field plays, right? That's you know, we have a course field uh game on the slate Let's just go with the the assumption that course field does play tonight Yankees are up here the white socks. So I spoke about today. You're up there The red socks I mentioned briefly you can be certainly looking to them and then the blue jays We know they should be relatively popular like all these teams have the potential to be Very very high roster ship percentages tonight And I think that the braves are going to fall a bit under the radar and therefore I like them So yes pairing the braves and the giants are two of my favorite stacks outside of course field tonight John Rosenberg is asking do I like a patino tonight for the Where's Tampa right here flip to this Here's the issue that I'm having overall He's not going super super deep into games yet Like we can see it trending upwards, which is good. No, there's no doubt about it that it's trending upwards The walks are still a slight issue for him to strike that upside isn't is undeniable We we have certainly seen that from him, but the combination of too many walks You know a bit inconsistency when it comes to how many early runs and how efficient he's being and not going super deep into games Has me shying away from him So really at this lower tier of pitching if that's where you'd be looking to go or that's where you'd want to spend down to I would actually be going with Jose Suarez. It was only two two hundred dollars more I thought that Suarez was going to get the start yesterday for the angels. It wasn't it was Chris His name's escaping me. Who was it? It was Chris. What's his name? Whoever might be from the angels that got the start yesterday Not that it matters too much, but he got the start yesterday. He put up a good performance I would be looking to go to jose suarez today against the rangers just because the rangers lineup is not going to be good We saw it from them yesterday. Their offense is struggling. Listen, their offense wasn't good to begin with And then you remove joey gallifromat. I'm not Not looking towards him Uh, and you like the brave stack tonight. Yeah, john is also asking. Yes. I do like the brave stack tonight I'd be focusing in on probably freddy freeman Going to adam duvall whore. Hey, so lair austin riley Ozzy alby's players of that nature really getting some solid home run upside. I think that's all very much in play How would you rate these stacks? Uh, boston, this is what jerry on facebook is asking You have to rate these stacks boston sincey new york new york yankees That is milwaukee and who do you favor if you like any of these? So how would I rate them boston sincey new york milwaukee? So yankees, I think are Clearly in the best spot. This is not a secret in a matter where you look on You know for on today's slate for whatever information you're out there searching for you're going to see the yankees as a very popular option But if the yankees are going to be Uh, super chalky tonight. There's an argument to be made for some of the other options Like I said going to the reds attacking kenta mayeda who's allowing 1.36 home runs per nine This season so while I do like the yankees and the red socks now I think we have to factor in all of uh, you know, how chalky they're going to be how expensive they are So when when push comes to shove I'm going to go I'll go yankees I'll go yankees socks sincey milwaukee Right because the yankees are just truly in a phenomenal spot You want to be going there the socks are also in a great spot and then it would take sincey Like I think that they have plenty of power in their line if you can be looking to them Uh, really any single time they're also at home in the great american small park giving you plenty of Upside Salvatore on youtube asking thoughts on the fillies versus korbin I actually have the fillies pulled up as another team I wanted to talk about because yes, I do like the fillies the fillies are also in this range 4.46 implied a run total tonight really not jumping off the page Right, there are clearly teams that are ahead of them that could be that people will be prioritizing And I think that's what makes the fillies so interesting tonight now androom kutchin is on the il Hoskins was out of the lineup the other day He's out of the lineup yesterday. I don't know. Oh, we do have a we have. Oh, Hoskins is back and we've confirmed the lineup. Let's just Take a look at this real quick because I do like the fillies tonight. That's why I pull them up raves confirm cardinals diamond backs blah blah blah Fillies right here. Segura. Hoskins harper real mutobomb terreus. Herrera. Williams. Okay. It's a good lineup Certainly be looking to some of the some of these options that Uh, okay. Okay. So this is a good lineup We'd love to see mccutchin, but obviously he's on the il. Hoskins miller I would certainly be going to us. Hoskins and real muto I'd be certainly be going to some of my top overall options. Alec bomb might also be looking to The fly ball rate that we are getting from some of these hitters is very very strong Realistically Corbin is struggling mightily this season Second worst on today's slate 11 1.82 home runs per nine this season Corbin a picture that I've trusted way way too many times this year. I had him on my Season long keeper team. Obviously that did not turn out too. Well 2.16 home runs per nine allowed this season to right-handed hitters He has a low 15.5 strikeout rate 4.92 x 5 absolutely terrible His fly ball rate is a little bit lower than you would expect for a picture That's giving up that many home runs, but he's you know, a fly a home run a fly ball ratio of 21.7 is absolutely Terrible hard contact rate right at 35 percent. So yes, I do like the Phillies tonight I'll certainly be filtering them into my lines because again I I'm not expecting the Phillies or the Braves to be that chalky tonight compared to some of the other top teams And we know what the Braves Seemingly have this game once every other week where they go for 15 runs or whatever it is. So I have a ton of interest in the Phillies. I have a ton of interest in the Braves tonight Jerry's also saying I think Seattle's another good spot in the Trap game against Tampa Bay. You're saying like uh, the the the trot there I'm not super on board with the Mariners tonight understand why you will be going to them just the inconsistency that we can get from Petino in there. Uh, I'm not opposed to it. It's not my favorite option But it is there Uh, Sal Sabato was asking we're just top stack for gbp. Yeah, I think the Phillies would fit that definition of a great stack for gbp Saban on youtube is asking do you know what happened to the free home run challenge that Fandle was doing? Uh, I do not That would be a question probably best directed for customer service on twitter Process Alvin is asking process kind of question. What stack types you use the most? Ah, this is a great question. So uh We had we did an article or I should say Uh, can you out of store and one of our writers on numbered fire did an article? I would believe was at the beginning of last season where he went back and looked at uh, historically what kind of stacks perform the best and I think that the highest scoring stack or the the stack that finished within the top 10 of lineups was a 43 one stack. So four players from one team three from the next and then a one off from You know a third team and that one off I always always always make sure that one off is a player that Like has home run upside on his own it on his own and what I like to say is like that player couldn't reach value on his own So you wouldn't be taking Uh, like you wouldn't be taking like carter key boom as a one off necessarily Like he's a player that you would want if you were to happen to be stacking the nationals Not saying I'm gonna be doing that tonight But you would use him in a stack for him to reach his maximum upside where he gets on base someone else knocks him in Maybe he drives in a run because the nationals are having a great game. Not just him specifically So a great one off would be a player that has Big upside big home run upside on their own So you could look to Bryce harper you look to Peter Lonzo You could look to Aaron judge you could look to black Guerrero as a one off like when I do four three one That's the player I want as a one off So I go to a four three one stack in a four four stack That's essentially the only two types of stacks that I use every now and then I'll mix in a four two two stack Four players from one team two from another and then two from a third team So that's a great question You know, what do I look what do I go with when it comes to actually building lineups? And it's generally four four and four three one is the two main stacks DJ on facebook's asking start kwayto tonight. I actually really like johnny johnny kwayto johnny kwayto tonight Or kukuchi tonight also start lorenzo kane versus pittsburgh Uh, I'm on board with mil mil walkie as a stack overall. They're certainly up here when it comes to their implied run total Uh, mil walkie right here. Do we have we have confirmed lineups? Kane in the eight spots are really not That's dipping a little bit further down in the mil walkie lineup that I'd be really willing to go Uh, in water west kebar, we know hit a home run last night. He has plenty of home run upside on his own Adamis also has upside avicile garcia also has some upside So we're looking at a few hundred dollars of difference For some of these players and we're looking at garcia or adamis who has significantly more home run upside than lorenzo kane So there's there'd be no reason for me to like go out of my way to roster lorenzo kane Next up, how do I feel about henderson tonight? That is the picture henderson tonight if that's what you're asking right who uh This is from jason on facebook Which henderson are you asking about if you'd be a little more specific tonight that'd be Great and then while we're waiting dj's asking is how's your worth of start against pittsburgh? You know, he's not necessarily the type of picture that I target Due to the fact that we will see He has a very low strikeout percentage, right? He's not striking a whole lot of hitters. So you'd be looking for him to Go six innings and pick up the win get the qs where you know, you need a couple of factors to go in his favor where You know his fantasy point Value comes from the fact that he could go six innings and give up one or and run just because he He keeps the ball down. He's a ground ball pitcher not a big strikeout picture So he's generally not the kind of pitcher I target too often No, I did say I was in fan of eric lauer yesterday who was in the same match against pittsburgh But it's a little bit of a different story when we're dealing with the seven game slate compared to 15 Where there are other options that you could be looking at Saban is asking favorite picks for a single entry Uh, I'd be looking to the braves and the fillies as two solid teams That are probably not going to be as popular some of the chalk your teams on tonight's slate. I think they're Uh, very very interesting when it comes to tournaments and then I'm really looking towards tyler molly at $7,900 as a pitcher that I really want to be targeting tonight because Looking at these striker rates for the pitchers tonight, you know, tony's not pitching tonight, but zack wheeler number one 29.8 percent Dylan cease and then tyler molly at 28.2 percent molly is $7,900 and zack wheelers all the way up at 10,700 We're talking about a few percentage points difference here and molly is significantly cheaper So I really like him tonight. Uh, I like the over on his strikeout profits and he had six and a half That's where I would go Uh, julius caesar is asking unusual stacks on tonight's slate and then a mid-mid-level pitcher So I think tyler molly kind of fits that mold of a mid-level pitcher Uh, blake snow. He still has that high strikeout rate, but the walks are just way way too much for blake snow this season Not a spot. I'd be going Uh, tylin walker at $7,400. I know he's had a really really rough stretch in a lot of these recent games He was cruising in the first half of the season, but he's up against miami tonight Which I do think is a good bounce back spot for him So there's really any time for walker to get things going tonight It would be against miami. So he'd be a pitcher I'd be willing to take a few shots in the mid to your width, but really Like nine times out of 10. I'm gonna be going towards tyler molly for that 28 strikeout rate Really giving you a boost and then unusual stacks. Uh, as the second part of the question I mean, there's Unusual stacks on tonight's slate like I don't want to say the braves fit that mold But for me, it might be the tigers now I mentioned the tigers briefly this morning Uh, as you know, kind of a fourth stack that I like and if they aren't going to be popular This is a stack that I think we can be going to this is a stack that has plenty of home run upside A stack that has uh and the players in the stack that are generating tons of fly balls and more importantly They are going up against garrick richards who is right here Allowing too many home runs this year 1.42 has a low 17.3 percent strikeout rate and a 90 9.7 walk rate. This is a picture that uh, similarly fits the mold of Chris boobich tonight the picture for the royals who I spoke about This morning in terms of the chicago stack a picture that walks too many hitters You know has a low strikeout rate, which means if they get in a jam They're really not pitching themselves out of trouble, right? They rely on ground balls They rely on you know flyouts to get themselves out of innings And all of these walks are only in favor of the other team combined with the home runs that we are seeing Garrett richards allowing So the tigers are kind of the team that i'm also targeting as a bit of an under the radar stack We have seen their implied run total creep up a bit throughout the day I also mentioned it earlier on the podcast that I like the tigers red sox game for a game stack Specifically because we already know that the red sox are in a good spot We have certainly seen their pitchers regress in the second half of the season and their bullpen regress a little bit And then we look to the tigers and then we look to the red sox As already a great stack that we just they have plenty of power in their lineup to begin with So I'd be looking to the red sox and the tigers Sal was saying he likes the 431 stacks. Absolutely. Eric on youtube is saying new this for a single entry have a 4-1 stack Uh boston fiddly chicago white sox new rick inky's milwaukee strong projections down. Okay You're saying a four one stack as in a four and then one one one one Is that where you're going with? Uh Because like that's that's totally a viable torban option You know you have your core stack of four and then you're taking four players as one offs Again the players that I like to target as one offs are all who have home run upside right A player getting on base, you know a player having a single or double and like one rbi like At the end uh, eric is saying yes, so four one one one one. Okay, so at the end of the day like a player He has a single. He's got he has one rbi. He has a run like What's that doing for you at the end of the day in torrents, right? Like that's not that doesn't jump you to the top of leaderboards like a player having like 9 10 11 fantasy points like Cool like that's great. You want home run upside, right? The hope like we don't want to be min caching, right? You want to be jumping up to the top or leaderboard So if you have your core stack, you're going with a let's say a boston core stack It's the first team listed boston core stack great So for philly, who is that player that has home run upside now? Of course you have to work with the salaries make this all work But huskens has some home run upside tonight. You could certainly be looking Uh to him Hoskins has some home run upside, you know, maybe if they run Uh, corporate out of the game early like harper could have uh, you know some run at their bullpen So that's perfect from the white socks really like hosay abrayou and andrew vaughn tonight You could be going there from the Yankees Plenty of their hitters are in good spots. It comes down to how many of them you can afford and then for milwalky I'd be willing to run it back with Uh, Edwardo Escobar who had a home run last night. Obviously i'll garsee you could be looking at him Joey gallo is not overly expensive. It's only $3,500. So yes, the four one one one one stack is Uh, certainly viable for torbids get that core stack nailed down that you are just super super confident in whatever it might be You know boston tonight and then take those home run upside. That's what you want. You want home run upside, you know rostering You know tim anderson i don't i don't mean to call tim anderson out because he's he's actually one of my favorite players in the league but he's not a player that like brings a ton of power like he can steal a base he can have like two three runs a couple rbi's and uh, you know stolen base, which is great, but Really when it comes down to it like hosay abrayou has multi home run upside hosay abrayou can have two home runs and five or six rbi's So that's what you really wants right like tim anderson getting on base is great Uh, and being a part of a larger white sock stack is great And i know for a fact i'm going to have plenty of shares of the white socks and tim anderson tonight But hosay abrayou petalonzo erin judge Uh devbers whoever mentioned that before Uh those type of hitters that's what brings you the home run upside. That's what boosts you to the top of leaderboards uh So eric is also saying for ceases picture. Yes. I very I like sees a lot tonight That'd be great savannah saying yinkee scared me yesterday. I don't want to touch them again I like filling the walking detroit tonight Thanks time for the insight. Well, thanks for being here. Yes. So the inkeys Just complete dud last night. There's no other way to there's nowhere the way to put it, right? They just uh completely fell flat But they are in a good spot tonight, right? Whatever they did yesterday or should say not what they did what they didn't do yesterday the lack of scoring runs yesterday Whatever they did yesterday does not matter today. It's it's like we don't want to have this recency bias where You know like they they did terrible yesterday. So now like we can't rush with them today Well, it's like it's a different picture today and they're still just like factually in a good spot Going up against alexander well is going up against this this baltimore bullpen potentially. So I just like I understand like the frustrations of having that but like if the inkey scored 10 runs yesterday You know, would you be running back to play them today because they were went crazy yesterday? It's like well, we'd still be playing them today because they're just in a good spot today DJ saying rockies might get postponed Yes, that's that's one of the things we have to worry about as I I'll always say follow kevin roth on twitter We're waiting for this another weather update because this is You know, this is impactful, right? Wind blowing in Rain throughout the entirety of the game and it's like a good Chance that we could be seeing a lot of rain So that is something that we have to be focusing in on adamis saboteurs saying adamis and mansini gave me zeroes last night I know I was big on mansini I was big on Willy dummies. I have a dummies on my season long team not getting the week off started on the best foot Sorry, what is a core stack? So are you saying a core stack as in the course field in colorado? Or a core stack like core like this isn't the main team that I am Trusting today or the main team that I'm going with because like a core stack would be like you are You want to be overweight on the field when it comes to the red socks or the white socks like two teams? So that's your core stack So I guess maybe like I haven't spoken like too much about my process Because like, you know jam obviously has been here the whole season But like a lot of what I do when it comes to a slate and this is a good way to like break things down for like What kind of stacks you to look at like a four four stack or four three one stack Whatever might be is like I essentially break things down into Like two like pools or tiers or whatever you want to call group a group b So like group a like stacks tonight for me would be like the Yankees The Giants the white socks the red socks and maybe course fields like these are like group a teams like or like pool a teams and then like pool b teams would be teams like The Phillies or the Braves or the angels I I do think the angels in our good spot I spoke about them this morning on the solo shot attacking Jordan Lyles. We actually want to do that So like the the pool a teams are probably going to be like super chalky teams We know that they're going to be popular We know that they're in a great spot all these things are are very very clear So I'll be looking to the Yankees But then I'll take like the Yankees and this it comes down to you know Using a lineup optimizer if you're multi-entering I'll like I'll take the Yankees and you're pairing them off with like a team like the Phillies or the tigers Or whoever might be or the angels not only because I'm trying to get a good combination I do think the angels in a great spot but more importantly their salaries make sense together, right? So it's like I'm pairing the Yankees with the angels and then I'll pair the Yankees with the Phillies the Yankees with The Braves if as long as their salaries work And then I'll look to take the white socks and pair the white socks with the angels the white socks with the Braves So when like those teams take care of what they should at the at the top tier when like the angels go crazy All of the lineups with the angels are like rising together So the angels and the Yankees are rising the angels and the white socks are rising So I basically break things down It's like two different pools of teams like the top tier teams and then like these teams I think that are kind of under the radar and a bit undervalued. So Like the Orioles last night. So when the Orioles go off and have four or five home runs They boost all of the lineups together Diffuse on youtube is asking gary Sanchez tonight. You see confirmed in the lineup But I'm not sure if we had a Yankees. We do Sanchez is in the lineup. I'm on board with the Yankees tonight. I'm I'm totally on board with them. I know I'm going to be stacking them I probably You know, labor towards was on a bit of a hot streak. He's certainly cooled off after their series in Miami I probably only stack the top six of the Yankees tonight I probably go through like in the optimizer and like remove You know spots seven eight nine from this from the optimizer and say do not stack hitters from these spots stick to the top portion That's generally where we will see the chalkiest options Uh, I'm not just for the Yankees, but just in most stacks every single day We generally see one through four, you know, two through five as the chalkiest options It obviously presents the opportunity to do You know a bottom half the lineup stack or a wrap around stack to be a little bit different in torrents Which is of course, obviously a great thing Uh You learned uh learned about core's uh term yesterday from eric. Yeah, Colorado core's field Uh, just, you know, a core's field slate is always interesting because You know the run potential in that stadium is obviously massive and You know, sometimes you don't want to be left behind Obviously tonight's a little bit different because we're dealing with so much Weather concern here, which hopefully will get an update from kevin roth prior to 7 p.m lineup I will say if you are playing stacks at core's field tonight because obviously the game does not start until is it Uh eight 40 so an hour and 40 minutes after lock give or take You got to be ready. You got to be ready to to swap if this game gets postponed or delayed Right, you got to be on board. You got to be ready like At your computer on your phone whatever might be if this game gets postponed because you don't want those dead lineups out there Right, make sure you get those swaps out there. That is of course a major major thing to pay attention to on tonight's slate all right, so You know, I think we are in a fantastic spot Obviously a much better slate than we had yesterday with only seven games a full 15 games tonight We are some great pitching options on tonight's slate. I think that we're gonna see a lot of runs tonight I think this is a great spot for multi entering Last question producer cal is asking tom I have An average of $3320 left. Of course gets postponed. Where should I go? So that of course is information we don't have but the angels Their lineup as we see here outside of otani who is really just in a fantastic spot tonight He's probably my favorite overall hitter, but Some of these players are very very affordable. I have a ton of interest in justin upton tonight at $2,700 I wrote about him today as one of my potential home run calls on number fire com I can find all my writing there So if you are pivoting away from course field otani makes sense because you can shift some of that salary very easily Max stasi is not expensive at all. And then justin upped in under $3,000 in this match against jordan liles is phenomenal All right, so uh, I'll take this one last question. Eric is asking is ceiling important when using things like fantasy cruncher along with Fancy point uh fancy point projection ceiling is always important You know if you if whatever sources you're using you can look at like range of outcomes Range of outcome projections ceiling of course is important That's what ultimately what you're shooting for again. You don't want a hitter to just Get a single or double and uh, you know one rbi and one run like that's great and all But it's not like the 30 point stack and push it towards the top of leaderbird. So yes, absolutely look towards the ceiling Don't just like look at ceiling and say oh, this is the end all and be all Factor that in within the stack and within you know the context of your lineups All right, so that does it for today's q&a. I'll be back tomorrow morning for the solo shot at 9 a.m. Right here on the Fandall youtube twitch and facebook page. You can follow me on twitter at dfs underscore tom until next time. Good luck in your contest