 Thanks for staying with us now and Teenable Certificate Saga has been the subject of much debate in Nigeria with many reactions on what it means for democracy. Some are of the opinion that it undermines the public's trust in the electoral process. If voters believe that politicians can get away with forging certificates, they are less likely to believe that elections are fair and free. Leaders are concerned that Certificate Saga undermines Nigeria's reputation on the international stage and that can be perceived negatively rather by foreign leaders and investors. Meanwhile some people believe that there is nothing impactful about findings on the Certificate Saga that could affect the President's mandate. So we are asking tonight, what are your thoughts on this implication of the Certificate? And do you think it would impact our democracy? Now please let's hear what you have to remember you can join the conversation, send us an SMS or WhatsApp to the red one 803-463. So Dammi and Mary, I just want you to keep these shots. Do you think it impacts? Do you think it doesn't impact? It does? Okay. How about you Mary? I think it would impact. It would impact? Yeah. Really? Yeah. Ah, Mary. I mean, like you rightly said for you, it's going to distrust already from the public because trusting Nigeria's electoral system right now is like you're doing yourself in this service because we've seen so many things play out. Even international relations talk of investors. Yeah. I think for me it's not about any reasonable person wants to invest in something that is in light. Absolutely. Do you get so stuff like that? So I typed on Google, what is the biggest threat to democracy and why? It says the enemy of democracy is not communism, nor is it socialism, nor fascism. And it's certainly not a free press, not a free press. The constant and insidious threat to democracy by and for the people is corruption, plain and simple. Global corruption rots the foundation, foundational trust rather between the people and their leaders. On that note, let me bring in David Houdain. He's no stranger to the house. David Houdain is an investigative journalist and the 2023 distinguished James Curry Fellow at the University of Cambridge Center of African Studies. He's a broadcaster whose work has appeared on CNN, the Africa Report, Al Jazeera, the Washington Post, his work as a satirist on the other news, Nigeria's answer to Daily Show has featured in the New Yorker magazine and in Netflix documentary Larry Charles, Dangerous World of Comedy. And David has joined us live from somewhere around the world. Thank you so much, David, for joining us this evening. Thank you for having me. All right. So you know we had this conversation behind the scene and we were just talking and I was teasing you. You might as well finish what you started, right? This conversation has been long, long, long, long before even the elections. You've been doing a lot of digging, you've been doing a lot of work. You had brought out some of the first leg of the reports that talked about the drug involvement of our now president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Then of course this now built up to certificates and all of that. And last week we had the news where the PDP presidential candidate finally got the report from the Chicago State University and had a press conference because we have also held off the conversation until that report came out and the report now comes and it checks everything out, right? A lot of mixed reactions. Some have said, these things, let's let it go. Some have said, no, we have to stay on it, right? I mean we had a conversation on Thursday last week, I mean if it's not what you show, you can go and watch the show but it is a conversation of should we, should we not. And some people say, no, let's leave it, some people say let's, what's it called? Let's stay on it and let us see through, right? So we were just thinking, really does a certificate, a forged certificate, does it really have anything, any major impact on what, I mean, governance or democracy would look like in Nigeria. Do you think it has, that it is that significant to make it a real impact? So I think the first thing to understand about this conversation is that the issue is not so much the certificate in itself. Certificate is important, let's be clear about that, but it's not so much a certificate itself as what it represents. Now, there are two things that it represents. First of all, it implies that there is a basic level of competence, right? Obviously having a certificate does not in itself mean that you are a competent person but it's generally a marker that is used as a proxy for some expected form of competence. And secondly and more importantly, the certificate signifies that the person who is presenting it has respect for the rules because the rules clearly state that anyone who submits a forged certificate to an independent national electoral commission shall not be qualified for public office, this grounds for immediate dismissal, for immediate disqualification. So the act of presenting a forged certificate, the danger that is inherent in that act is not so much the fact that having a forged certificate necessarily makes you a bad person or necessarily makes you a bad leader or necessarily invalidates whatever ideas you might have or whatever. The issue is the precedent that is being set, both for you and for those who come after you. And I think this is a very important thing that needs to be addressed because I think already people have started forgetting that as recently as five years ago, let me say eight years ago, where we had a similar issue. Till today, it has fallen into a memory hole but till today, if you recall, it has still never been conclusively proven that the past president, Pamad-e-Buhari, actually had a second legal certificate. It has still not been conclusively proven till today. If you recall, the argument that was made in court at the time was that, well, as long as the issuing body did not come out to categorically state that this thing is a forgery, then, well, we can't categorically state a forgery. So he kind of gets away with it by default. And people made similar arguments then that, well, why are you making such a first of all certificate anyway? It doesn't matter. But the thing is, he got away with it then. So here we are now because the precedent was set that rules don't matter. The law doesn't matter. That precedent was set in 2015, which was reaffirmed in 2019. So here we are in 2023 with someone who is three or four times the commander, Mohamad-e-Buhari was. And again, where that crossroads again, where again, people are making those exact same disingenuous arguments. And even if it's forged, so what, you people, you place too much importance on certificates. There's this problem in Nigeria. You guys place so much importance on ceremonial things. You don't deal with substance. They're always chasing shadows, body, blah, blah, blah, blah. The issue is, if this person gets away with it this time, the first one was bad. This one is significantly worse because it's not just one certificate. Bear in mind. It's not just the fact of submitting a forged university certificate. There are a ton of other lies that are inherent in the entire degree. His entire background is a lie. So let me come to you because you are saying this person is three times the common person, right? But let me say this to you, in fairness, aren't we all liars? Most of us, a good number of Nigerians are liars. You know why I say that? I mean, in the days of our mothers, they had to use somebody else's document to travel out of the country. Some people had to bring down their date of birth, just to be able to fill into a role, like literally, right, and I'm trying to be very objective here with the conversation because we too have been accused that everything, APC, we are always attacking. So I'm trying to create a balance here. Now, every most Nigerians, you know, they wrote on what's he called, would I call it forged or some, you know, some people would just go and declare one age. Some people would declare these, you know, some people would say, you know what, because I'm supposed to go to school this particular age, I'll bring down my years by two years. I mean, you see all sorts of things, even with certificates, right, even with certificates. We've seen people writing exams for people like literally when it comes to the issues around falsification of results or falsification of whatever it is. I mean, it's a common practice amongst a lot of us in Nigeria. You know, so shouldn't this be like, OK, I don't know. Help me out because I'm trying to be careful with my words. But I'm saying that it's something that is already there, right, I guess you're saying that somebody at that level of authority, but it's something that is always there. So we have, we have condoned it over the years. So what makes it seem like now anything would change or it would be different? Of course, it would continue to get worse, which is to your point. So the issue is, yes, as you said, these things have been widespread in the Nigerian society. To the point of itself, they didn't fall out of the sky. He obviously came from the context where such things were thought to be permissible. But the issue is, first of all, Nigerians are not the only people who have a reputation for doing things like that. So as you may or may not be aware, Indians also have the dare, they also fame, even at a larger scale than Nigerians, for doing things like that. Travelling abroad with other people's passports, back in the days before biometric data, I'm sure, reducing ages, claiming, you know, using false reasons to claim asylum in other countries, all sorts of things. Indians had that reputation too. But here's the thing, who is the prime minister of India? Narendra Modi, right? You can, every step of Narendra Modi's life can be documented. You know that he went to so-and-so high school, he went to Gujarat University. He's made to, at the time, they know and can identify him. He has papers, you know, that he worked at McKinsey. He doesn't just claim that he worked at McKinsey. McKinsey itself will actually confirm to you that he worked at McKinsey, which is a global top-of-the-line consultancy firm. Before he went into politics, you can, so the point I'm trying to drive at is that regardless of how defective society is in India, the people who sit in the top-most leadership positions there are people who can be used as models of what Indians are supposed to be, right? So they don't necessarily reflect the average in India. That's very important in a, quote, unquote, third-world society, that people who are empowered need to embody some sort of aspirational ideal for what this society wants to look like. So if in an underdeveloped or low-quality society, you have leadership that is reminiscent of the bottom-drinks of society. You have leadership that is reminiscent of motor park. As to what that tells the world is that this is a motor park society and that the world should never expect anything more. This is not a developing society. This is not a society that has any intention of getting better. This is a society that is exactly where it deserves to be and it's always going to be that it has no intention of changing. That is what having a certificate for job and a drug trafficker sitting in the highest office in the man does. It tells, it sends a message to the world that these are Nigerians. This is what Nigeria represents, right? It's not as if Nigeria didn't already have a very bad reputation for drug trafficking, for documents, for drugs, but the 419s came. Nigeria already had that reputation since the 70s. But the thing is, it hasn't really happened before that someone at the very highest level has been directly implicated in those things. That's always impossible to at least pretend that the Nigerian government is not on board with those things. Even though that wasn't always true, but at least you could pretend. Now, for the first time, you are basically having an MCU alone as your president, because it comes from the same strata of society, right? You are basically having an MCU alone as your president. The message that is sending to the world is that this is the level of Nigerian society. So even those of us who think of ourselves as middle class, edgy, educated, openly mobile, global citizens, whatever, the fact that we come from Nigeria doesn't mean that we have to be tied to a certain way of doing things. We've seen the world be exposed. We are still going to be judged through those lens. That's the problem. That's the issue. So regardless of whether I'm in Nigeria or not, regardless of whether my children who grew up in Nigeria or not, regardless of whether I'm income from Nigeria or not, regardless of whether I use the Nigerian passports or not, I will always be judged through the lens of the person who is perceived to embody Nigeria. Nobody embodies Nigeria more than the person who is head of state. That is the issue. All right, thanks for staying with us now. If we just tuned in, we're having the conversation around the Tinnable Certificate saga and we're asking what are its implications on democracy and we have with us David Houdain. Now please, let's hear what you have to say. Remember you can join the conversation. Send us an SMS or WhatsApp to 08-1-803-84663. Then we have a question, right? Okay, yes, so David, I mean, I quite understand that this entire certificate saga has a major impact on the democracy of Nigeria. I mean, trust and whatnot. But then again, I'm also aware that Nigeria is not the most corrupt nation, right? So we have nations that I believe are a lot more corrupt than Nigeria. But are we saying that we particularly need a good person to lead us as a nation? Or we just need someone with a capacity? Because I mean, we can say our current president is a lot of things, quite frankly. But then again, in terms of capacity, don't you think that he is literally the man for the job, excluding every of his excesses? I don't know if you understand my question. Hi, I'm Mike Fodlanick, I'm really on an end-to-end with that point of view. First of all, the event of the president is just as important as the alleged capacity of the president. The presidency is not just a functional vote. It's also a ceremonial one. It also sends a message to the world. So for example, Colombia, in the days of Pablo Escobar, you could have made a similar argument that Pablo Escobar, I mean, he ran the world's most prominent criminal investigation. So clearly he had a lot of high-quality managerial capacity at his peak. Pablo Escobar probably had more accountants working for him than KPMG did. So you could have made that argument that Pablo Escobar would make a coup on their president. This man who has managerial capacity can run an economy. There's a reason why Colombia has rejected that idea so vehement. So now that we have an agenda of Pablo Escobar, I think that would be a very mistaking argument to make. And then conversation that we've already had a hundred times in the lead of the elections, but examining every bit of the timeline of this character's political story, it becomes very clear that the supposed capacity or achievements, everything that has been built up is one huge media creation. Because if, for example, from his time as governor, as the CEO, if you like, of Lagos State, what was his calling card? His primary policy throughout his eight years, Lagos State, was that he brought organized crime into the fabric of the Lagos State government. He turned the so-called admin route into a semi-official part of the tax collection infrastructure of Lagos State. So in other words, the official tax collection capacity of Lagos was not really improved. Instead, he empowered the people who go around tiered tickets for bus conductors and turned them into something much more powerful than they already were, and gave them executive power, so that now we have people like MCO Nomo having police escorts, right? MCO Nomo has more rights to protection as an Indian citizen than YouTube. MCO Nomo is a criminal, even not, right? But MCO Nomo has more say in Nigeria than YouTube. That's it in Lagos. So if that's the capacity that you're referring to then, I mean, I really think to differ, right? There is no evidence of this opposite capacity that people always talk about. Beyond the media creation, obviously, MCO Nomo has always been very, very aware of the importance of press and the importance of PR. And MCO Nomo has been able to, even his most strident media critics, people like Bayo and Oniga, Google, in case you forgot him, was the one of the very first journalists in Nigeria to actually break the story about Tinnabu Certificate for Audrey back in 1998. That's in Bayo and Oniga. Over time has been co-opted into the Tinnabu machinery now because that's the kind of person Tinnabu is. He knows how to entrap people with money. So that's the capacity. So beyond that, I have no idea what this capacity is that people are always referring to. I mean, I would know because I was born and raised in Lagos, I'm from Lagos. I saw this all close. My dad used to work as a civil service. This is someone that I know personally. So this idea that, oh, it's some kind of competent leader. I'm sorry, I don't buy it. I've never bought it. I've never seen them dance for it. It's interesting. I mean, these are strong words, you know, say criminal, criminal, criminal. But I was going to ask you, David, right? We are here now. You saw the events that happened with the tribunal, right? And of course, there has been some appeal to the Supreme Court to say, okay, presenting some of these things. And I think this was why it was really important for, I think, the PDP candidate to get that certificate just to prove that all the things, because, I mean, this was part of what was given to INEC to say this was a grounds for disqualification and all of that, right? But we saw how the tribunal threw all the cases out. The best way for a democracy to survive in any economy or any country is also that they have a very strong judicial system, right? That oppose whatever it is that they are supposed to uphold based on the facts, based on truth and all of those things. But Nigeria is a unique terrain, you know? So how do you see this new certificate release, right? Or the, what's it called? The report from Chicago State University. How do you see this impacting the appeal? I'm sorry, the Supreme Court's judgment. Do you think it will make any impact or we're just gonna be running around in circles? In a country with a functioning judiciary, it definitely would make an impact. I mean, in a country with a functioning judiciary, it's not even going to have made it this far. You know, I've been disqualified since November last year when I put the story out and when this was taken to court, because lest we forget, this was actually taken to the FCTI court back in November last year. And the Nigerian justice system did what it does. All the judges ran away from the case. No judges assigned to it. And it basically timed out. So it became statute-barred, right? So that's what the Nigerian justice system does. So in a country with a functioning judiciary, yes, it absolutely would happen. But if Timingwa had even got this far, by now, it wouldn't even happen, this conversation I took in. It don't, if this were the U.S., and he had somehow managed to make it all the way to the presidency. And then afterwards it became clear that he had told a lie about his background. He would, we wouldn't even talk about Supreme Court. The articles for impeachment would have already been passed. The House, by now. But Nigeria is not that place. We know Nigeria is a place where the appeal court's judgment, the appeal court's Chief Justice delivered a judgment saying that, yes, somebody had a double nomination, but he didn't do it intentionally. So it doesn't count. To the best of my knowledge, that's the first time I've ever heard any court of law anywhere on the planet, including North Korea, that ignores and exudes under the law. Very, you know, a traditional first. So that's the kind of justice system we have in Nigeria. Those are the kind of judges we have in Nigeria. And then Supreme Court itself is, to a large extent, staffed by people who are openly loyal to the people, such as Chief Justice Kaidi Ariwala. So what I will say is that it will depend almost 100% on how Nigerians choose to respond to it. Because as I said earlier to me on the different platform, Nigeria is not a country that functions based on rules and laws and set processes. Nigeria is a country that functions on vibes, emotions, noise, and narrative. That's how Nigeria works, unfortunately. So I can tell you for a fact that the appeal court judges which was delivered, if they had been a different public reaction, even on the morning that the judgment was to be delivered, the judgment that would have been delivered would have been different. I'm telling you that categorically. Nigeria is a country where these things matter. Regardless of whatever statement that Chief Justice came out and put out last week that we shouldn't take public opinion into account and blah, blah, blah, blah, but the truth is that public opinion absolutely does count for in laws. That's the truth. So it's Nigerians themselves who decide whether they are going to, with their silence, acquiesce, with being insulted the way they were insulted by the appeal court ruling, or if they are not going to accept it this time around. Because I think it's very clear court, right? That even a competent court in the US, like lawyers acting on that is jurisdiction of the court in the US, have established that forgery has taken place. So it's no longer a case of, oh, has this thing been proven in court? It has been proven in court, in an even higher quality court than any Nigerian court. So at this point, it's no longer a case of anybody waiting for the Supreme Court to make any judgment or not. At this point, people know what has happened. 2 plus 2 is definitely 4, regardless of what the Supreme Court choose to say. So now it's up to people to decide whether they're going to let the Supreme Court do what it wants to do. We all know what the Supreme Court wants. The Supreme Court wants to find a technology to throw it out and keep Timber in office. Because people in the panel are loyal to Timber. That's just how Nigeria works. So it's up to the Nigerian people themselves to decide if they're going to let it happen, or if they're tired. Unfortunately, if the Nigerian people aren't tired yet, if they're OK with having the intelligence insulted by a tiny group of people, then I guess all the work that people like us have put in about the past few years without being for nothing, which I guess is a shame. But ultimately, it is what it is. OK, so considering all you said now, David, what would you rather have the people of Nigeria do? I'm asking this question because we are very aware that we have a system that works against us. So no matter how much we protest, carry plant cards, say DC, that's both online and offline, it feels like nothing is being done because there are powers above that just won't let it get done. So what would you rather have the citizens of Nigeria do? In a case like this, because we are very aware also that when it gets to the Supreme Court, we can only hope for the best. But in our minds, we feel like we know what the result is going to be like. Did you get what I'm saying? So what would you really have us do? Yeah. So the thing is, if you recall, sometime in, I think it was 2018, I don't know if you remember a police PR, I think his name was Abaya Mishogunde, who used to be very cantankerous on social media. He used to be openly, you know, there's a particular incident that I cannot forget, where if you recall, N-SARs have been a hashtag since maybe late 2017 or so. And one of those times where it flared up briefly, sometime in 2018, Abaya Mishogunde went to Twitter and said, 85 million retweets to N-SARs. He was openly mocking people who were complaining about their pain, that they had suffered in the hands of the special arterial risk ward. He went to Twitter and said, 85 million retweets to N-SARs. And then he put laughing in his mouth, right? And then, less than three years later, all of a sudden, nobody knew what happened. Nobody organized anything. Nobody told anybody what to do. All of a sudden, N-SARs went from just being some random internet hashtag into becoming something that literally brought the country to a halt. And then you had the then president going on TV and making an announcement that the special and terrorist code has been disbanded. Now, whether or not it was actually disbanded in the functional sense, that's another conversation altogether. But the point is, the one time when N-SARs decided that they were actually tired of something, nobody made any recommendation to them to tell them what to do. Nobody organized any movement for them to join. Nobody did anything. It just happened. Because when N-SARs are tired of things, nobody tells them what to do. So if I have to sit down and recommend any cause of action, then from experience, that means that N-SARs are not ready. Oh, not ready. Because when N-SARs are preparing, they didn't do what they did. Well, we saw what happened. Let's take a break. Someone says, hello, I'm watching your program and honestly, I'm disappointed how you guys allow that young boy calling our president on printable names and no respect. You guys watch and condol all the trash he's talking about without evidences. Please, let's respect our president. He's so sad. Journalism has gone to the gutters. Oga? He says he's just been emotional. He's not been emotional. I had this. He's not been emotional. This is all saying from Delta. For me, your guess has said it all. When a bad president is set and people, especially those occupying leadership positions, who should lead by example? What do you expect? Till today, Buhari's certificate matter was swept under the carpet. And who are you saying she's being careful because APC are always angry because the truth is said. I really weep for this country, for your information. The damage about this saga will impact negatively on Nigeria. Okay, good evening. I am shocked at what the anchor said regarding the conversation on President Tiniwubu's alleged certificate forgery. Even though we have issues of fraud and documents forgery in the country, we shouldn't use that as an excuse to this issue. This is a shame if indeed the certificate is fake. This is bad without an excuse. Let's call it spade, it's spade. I don't mean to say I'm so pessimistic but we've got rules and if we don't follow the rules, then whatever we do will be a joke. No development will come as a result. So it's a good evening ladies. David nailed his argument perfect. The Nigerians debating a no-brainer issue like this fraud certificate. Like this fraud certificate issue of the president shows how low we have sunk as a country as per dysfunctional societal values. It will be the most dangerous precedent in Nigeria. Unfortunately, Nigeria lacks a critical mass of patriotic leaders loyal to Nigeria and the constitution above any individual who normally should have done the needful. How did we get here in Nigeria? This is Ney from Amole Lagos. Thank you Ney. David, I mean, you see the thing, we've not opened it, they're already attacking us. So MBC should watch this. I mean, so this conversation, you started this investigation and I must commend your work because again, a lot of people some people don't agree with your methods. I remember some journalists sending me some videos of the clip that you just recently released, you know, a video. And I said, see, it's his style. You need to understand that some people would go the extra mile to do that. You know, people have questioned what's your motive, what is this, what is that, right? I don't believe you have a motive, but some people would argue otherwise that you have a motive behind all of these things. But it's, I mean, it's an argument that is really not at the critical point right now. Where do we move from here? We have all of these problems. We don't know what to do. Nigerians are like, kind of like stuck. Like you rightly said, President Buhari's certificate was questionable. Now we've even seen a much more bigger problem. So what gives that tomorrow is not even gonna get worse because now what they've just told me is that even me, even I can forge a certificate. I mean, Kelly or they assume, was it her NYSE stuff? The saga that everybody went all over her. She had to resign. And I mean, because she even had integrity because she just resigned JJJ and left the thing and went back to her UK. I mean, we've seen some people being turned apart for even a little, something much more minute than this. So what is the real reason behind this? You know, is it that the power is just so big, so strong that nobody can say, guy, I love you, but this one is wrong. You know, I mean, how do we move from here? Because this is where we say, we do not have, we can't keep having a center that is so powerful that we don't have other bodies that are supposed to checkmate that center. So part of the issue here is that the person, the individual in question, a bulletin on who has spent years, if not decades, planning his move to the presidency. And part of that strategic plan has been curing favors where necessary, putting people in his debt, placing people in a strategic position. So for example, Kairi Udaya wrote a lot of the Supreme Court owes his position at CJN, so Tim Muslobby. I'm saying that as a statement, as a categorical statement of fact. Right? Anyone who wants to deny cultural freedom to deny it. That's a fact. Tim Muslobby, well, I guess most of us in Nigeria are quite relatively young, in the median age of Nigeria, it's between 18 and 19. But Tim Muslobby is a very old man, old men think in decades, while people like us think in months and single years. Right? So he has actually probably foreseen a lot of the resistance that might have come to the idea of a Tim Muslobby presidency. And he spent years setting a lot of dominoes in motion. Even the decision to back Kairi in 2015 was part of that domino sequence, that when you create a precedent of the worst candidate on the ballot, winning the election, it then is gonna happen again. It happened in 2015, it happened in 2019. So why shouldn't it happen in 2023 and beyond? Right? So in that sense, you have to give it to him in a Nigerian political sense. He is very strategic. The problem with that is that there are lots of people, including people that... Oh, take your comments quickly. Sorry, David, we lost this. For seeing that potentially could be wrote blocks to his ambition. And he has put things in place. So just position everybody from a very long time ago. All right, David. Or neutralize them. So basically the issue now is, as one of your listeners just said, there's a critical deficit of people with influence in Nigeria now who are actually prepared to put the country over the individual. So it's now a case of, the entire Nigerian government is now being monopolized by a single individual. I don't think people realize how dangerous this is. It's not a matter of Tinnobu being president for eight years or four years. That's not the issue. The issue is that, what Nigeria was supposedly running away from in 1998, after Abacha died, is exactly what we're about to get into now, right? The entire reason why PDP was created, the rotational power principle was created, all those things was to prevent any single individual from becoming as powerful as Abacha was ever again. That is exactly what is happening now. But instead of doing it by the pot of the gun, it's doing it using money and using the input. So I guess people don't realize how dangerous it is. It's not a case of whether Tinnobu is a, is a good person or a bad person. It's a case of what you are having, what is building up in front of us is a one participant. It's a dictatorship. But because it's not wearing military uniform and holding a gun, people don't seem to realize how dangerous it is. Thank you so much, David. I think that's a fantastic way to wrap the conversation. We'll definitely have to bring you back as much as we can. We'll keep having this conversation. I'm sorry we can't take more comments. We heard that there's so much more comments, but we can't take it. President Tinnobu Certificate Saga and the issue surrounding it is a huge embarrassment that definitely rubs off on national integrity. This was from Chief Festus Oguche. We'll see you guys tomorrow at 8 p.m. As we bring another great conversation to your screen.