 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Of course happy 4th of July actually before I hear don't I let Sam down Gonna put the the cap on and if you can quite make that out, but Whilst I talk about Our commander-in-chief. I Better I better keep the hat on so of course 4th of July. This does have quite clear Effect on financial markets from a trading point of view like it to be incredibly quiet Particularly later on this afternoon and certainly a day for if you're a professional prop trader. You definitely wouldn't Stick around in the afternoon because on the whole you'll probably end up just getting Frustrated or bored and that could lead to inappropriate trades for sure. So definitely the morning might yield a few Potential trades, but then probably I'd recommend start winding things down. I mean the Sun's out Wilburton's on You know, this is why we do what we do to give you the opportunity of the flexibility in the way that you work So yeah, definitely would keep that in mind when it gets this afternoon, but With the the theme being Making America great again Perfect timing right couldn't be better for Donald Because this was the S&P 500 yesterday We of course were looking at this over the the G20 the gap up that we had if you remember on Monday four days ago We were kind of saying well now we've we've got above that previous all-time high that kind of area here That was kind of a good support level now for then the eventual push higher And it's not that anything on a kind of micro level has changed It's just the idea that Essentially now we're up and we've broken that that level then three thousand is the obvious target It's kind of that behavioral mentality of markets and soon as we hit three thousand That's it. We kind of hit it and we've just drifted a little south since then, but we're pretty much sitting right at the figure. So Lo and behold what comes out? Well It comes out in force, of course This was a string of tweets that Donald Trump has been putting out today Stop mark is the highest in the history of our great country. This is the hundred and fourth time since the election of 2016 that we've reached a new high congratulations USA So that's one two Iran's issued a new warning Rohani says that we're enrich uranium to any amount that we want if there is no new nuclear deal Be careful with the threats Iran they can come back to bite you like nobody's bitten before I Like that one and one that I like to finish on that one strong Then he comes back Mexico is doing a far better job than Democrats on the border. Thank you Mexico And then he drops in of course did I not mention? S&P 500 just hit a new record high up 19% for the year congratulations so the point I'm making here is that We're going to get to the main comment the one that people have been focusing on when it comes to Donald Trump and that of Course is this idea about he threatened I'll show you the tweet in a second But in a nutshell be prepared quote for anything as Trump slams Europe and China on FX So this is the tweet that he made yesterday China Europe playing big currency manipulation game pumping money into their system in order to compete with the USA We should match or continue being the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games As they have done for many years. So if you remember we we finished a G20 and things were All looking quite positive markets responded in kind kind of a de-escalation If you like on the main issue between that of the US and China with this I guess temporary in nature freeze on any increase on tariffs and Then you get this type of comment, but Importantly and what I want to stress here is to disconnect between What's being put out there and then what the markets look at what the media focuses on what the public focuses on And what the market looks at are two Distinctly different things because if you look at Trump's tweet activity, I mean he he definitely must have a sore Saw finger this morning because he was firing them out like nobody's business and that's absolutely to be expected Because it's the 4th of July, of course what better time than to really Put out renew in the psyche of the public The the great things that you've done the stock market tweet the Iran being harsh in in the Middle East and controlling of that region The border and the fact that again taking a pop shot at your opposition the Democrats Then you talk about the S&P again Then you re-emphasized the manipulation which has been there the kind of narrative ever since he did the campaign trail Back in the beginning of 2016 before he came president. So it's a great PR Move by Trump and it's classic. He is the marketeer if you like Hence I think why he's had such great success in in some ways But this market see straight through this and so when you see what looks like quite a U-turn on The general positive nature of how the G20 finished actually doesn't mean anything because we know that this is just literally a marketing stunt in order to To get certain points across given the significance of the fact of it's being Independence Day of all holidays so making America great again showing how much you're fighting for that that ideal is is a very important and You know forceful political message what the markets think we know this is just him doing what he's doing It doesn't really mean anything and so, you know, it hasn't been a reaction to that comment as much as it might seem negative And the the financial press might dramatize it as being, you know a U-turn in his stance That's all baloney to put it in an American phrase Because ultimately we're up at record highs So there couldn't be better timing for Trump, of course obviously as people celebrate this holiday, but let me have a quick Cycled through the other headlines I'm gonna remove the hat because That's the Trump section done UK this is something which is is being particularly interesting This is something called the the city Surprise index and basically in short what it looks at is it looks at economic indicators And it looks at what is the consensus estimate and it looks at how much? Does the actual figure deviate away from what is expected by the analysts expectation now What's been happening here is this surprise index then kind of Calculates then the number of what has been substantially substantially large misses in UK economic data and of course this week we've had the kind of suite of PMI releases for manufacturing Construction and then services yesterday and they've all particularly the the two former ones being particularly weak I think it was what the weaker since 2013 and the weaker since 2009 Respectively and so downside surprises in data in the UK have kind of ramped up all of a sudden What does that lead to well? It's led to the likes of Mark Carney remember Earlier this week and he was followed up by his kind of deputy Connliffe is talking about the idea that we need to the the prospect of a no-deal is rising and therefore Opening up this idea of rate cuts and what's so interesting is that two weeks ago? We were talking about the Bank of England when we were covering the rape decision And we were kind of talking about them in a sense that actually they're probably the one remaining more neutral Possibly sounding hawkish central bank compared to all the other global central banks who are very much in an easing An accommodative policy mindset However, what's happened is this is a chart here. I'll show you in a second Given the commentary out of the Bank of England given the weaker surprise of the economic data of the UK The probability of a rate cut in the UK by the end of this year is risen by risen to 53% and that's doubled Basically since the end of last week. So within one week the prospects of a rate cut in the UK have doubled I mean, that's what it looks like on it on a graph and certainly It's way higher than it has been which is peaking up at around the 30% Remember if you look at it look at the timing of where the previous peak was here Of course, let me transition my screen This was it. This was the previous peak of 30% odds that we had this was the end of March and if you remember the end of March of course was the Proposed end of article 50. However, we know that's got bumped and down the road to the end of October The threat of that though before that date moved obviously brought about this idea of potentially a no deal Accidentally happening, but it didn't happen and we're kind of here We are again, although the odds are getting even higher because again, not only about the The economic slowdown, but the fact you've got Boris Johnson looking all but likely to become the Prime Minister going forward Interestingly given the that last point about Boris Johnson and obviously him sticking his Name to the the mandate of kind of do or die deliver And that's it as much as I don't think that's the case and I do believe we'll have an extension beyond October but At last the opposition party seems to be Doing what I think would be the the best strategic move Which is reports now suggest that labor plans to position on Brexit and a second referendum before the summer recess now This has been I guess the the political tactic of Jeremy Corbyn is that whenever There's a lot of Brexit related news and struggles within the Conservative Party. We saw this through the Various no confidence votes and they're voting down at the withdrawal bills of Theresa May multiple times Jeremy Corbyn tends to go very quiet. In fact, he's hardly ever seen And I guess his strategy is well let the conservatives self-implode And then I'll kind of come in at the last minute and then I'll give that credible other alternate Kind of opportunity if you like to the to the public But that really hasn't paid off as we've gone further and further down the road and its lack of commitment I think to a second referendum has really held back the popularity For a credible alternative choice and what's been happening as far as recent political events are concerned as well as polls Is that the only viable option then for pretty much half the entire country is to vote for either the liberal democrat party or the greens Who've really stuck to this idea of having a a second referendum on the final deal so I think Labour coming round to this obviously the number two if you like Tom Watson has been a big backer of this for a for a long period of time It's been it's been Jezza who hasn't But the point being if if he does come round to that I think that does then start to throw up a very interesting Prospect if they brought forward and really committed to this second referendum from the top from Corbyn And that became the new mandate of the Labour Party Well, then that if that gobbled up then the support of the Lib Dems and the greens I think you've then got a credible thing here that could happen going against what is This kind of polarization of the situation between a hard Brexit Boris or a complete just opposite second referendum Outcome of that who knows I mean ultimately it's a 50-50 thing that the first time round And who's to say it wouldn't be the same again, but I think that's the It'll be interesting to watch this develop if that did happen Perhaps it could lay some short term medium term support to the pound the idea then that you might have this Collective almost coalition of opposition coming together under the idea of a second referendum Which could ultimately lead to a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all situation Okay Quick look at the calendar for today That's it for the news. I'm afraid there's not really a great deal going on So as far as the calendar is concerned, it is particularly quiet. There really is nothing going on so again If you're a new trader You have to objectively review the conditions that every day offers you Today really should be a day where Um, it's highly likely that you wouldn't trade Not unless a something surprising does happen Or b. There's a particular good technical setup for maybe a range Trade but as we get further into the afternoon What typically tends to happen is we get to the kind of early afternoon Most people in uk and europe kind of start Um winding up their day because the fact is there's no additional volume coming in stateside And then with major us markets closed That's pretty much it. So the best of that activity if any is probably likely to happen over the next couple of hours and then die down Final point just had a comment here while i've been talking from the chinese commerce ministry So as us china trade teams are communicating and existing tariffs will have to be removed if us china could reach A trade deal. So that's the latest we've had here as a commerce ministry of china Okay, that is it from me I drove to sam And then i'll catch you in the chat room later on. Thanks very much guys All right guys. Hope everyone is doing well and of course happy independence day to Everyone listening in from uh america or who is here in america As an mentioned likelihood is it's going to be pretty quiet You're not necessarily looking to trade the range in t-notes is about six ticks And that really sums up even in in in s and p the nasdaq. It's very small this morning, which you would expect of course So if we have a quick look over at stocks to to begin with we know s and p hit the three thousandth in the cash and if we have a look at The the main equity market that that donald trump wants to hit the all-time of high the dow Jones Certainly on the futures anyway is getting very very close to that level Still not hit it but just this morning But i mean very i mean literally a matter of points So that would be something to keep an eye on if that was To to break through and obviously you can see a bit of a reaction to that high for now As we we approach it and of course if that goes we know who's going to be tweeting about it looking more intraday And you can see that range for the s and p Is is pretty pretty Sideways pretty quiet not expecting too much to to really kick on from there yesterday We had a nice opportunity after the cash open from what was the previous high that we had on the first of this month You can see we came back down hit it very nicely If we could get down to the pivot Another previous high i think that's not a bad place to to get in and And you know for that slow range bound trade and s1 also with these areas But for us to get down there seven points from from now I'd say it's highly unlikely to then you know have a decent push from those points So just being a bit careful realistic Of all of these these trades for the you know us products having a look at the The euro here we can see a couple of half decent opportunities yesterday The r1 spike higher to the high that we had yesterday afternoon was was a great trade the break lower of the trend as well offered a bit But again, you can see the the range that we're in now pretty pretty flat and unless we were to to break to to the downside Past these lows I mean even then it gets quite congested with some support that we had from yesterday So I'm gonna look see if we can get any of these trend lines in you can see it's not bad From yesterday's low to the afternoon evening low and then again today So it's being respected So it might be worth just having a look to see how we react to here. You wouldn't want to be going aggressive I would say on this this euro More looking for a retest of that level before really wanting to to get in but that could be something that You're looking at from from that point of view To the upside price getting squeezed in but again not looking to to go too aggressive in the The currency markets the pound up towards those highs r1 Looks relatively interesting With some resistance from yesterday and the low of the day Sorry, I should say low of yesterday with s1. I'd be very surprised if we broke out of that range And closed out that range so both of those as a range bound trade not looking too bad Maybe the short the favoured one just considering that the pounds run for now But of course with trump trying to talk down the dollar Could be a tricky one and you got to imagine he will be tweeting away to today as well Having a look at gold here So we have just pushed down lower this morning a little bit of a Break in the the lower volatility We did come back to retest this trend line as you see quite nicely Keeping an eye on that low from yesterday the highs around pivot and also The Well, yeah around the pivot and the highs from yesterday afternoon Where we had a bit of a breakdown after Midday could be another interesting point to keep an eye on we were getting squeezed all morning So keeping an eye on those two trend lines. You can see a really good opportunity yesterday was You can see it still marked up here that break of that trend Is well However, all these these trade ideas are quite optimistic for them to come in and then work to Where you would hopefully get a nice two to one risk reward So I wouldn't be expecting too much on the market today. Of course, stranger things have happened But I would just be realistic in in expectations having a quick look over at oil Which actually has moved a fair whack Yesterday's lows, which was also the low that we had back on Tuesday as well obviously an area to keep an eye on s1 holding that up for now Uh, obviously we retested it once we had broken through but what was the low of yesterday evening in the morning? Is that of a good resistance? So 56 86 a level to to have marked up However, how we get there will be important. Will we break this trend line aggressively if that was the case? I wouldn't really fancy the short and might be prioritizing a bit higher up around 5709 for for example But you do no don't necessarily want to get too complicated for these markets and Yeah, just Just thinking about the situation at hand with the volume lower I mean some of the look at that calendar. You can see just how how dead that is We've got retail sales out in an hour 30 from may not even from june from may a couple of speakers Well one speaker left The windows at 10 past 10 And I've tended to say that will be that Obviously dow Jones pushing to a new all-time high could could see something there and a break of any of these ranges might lead to Some an interesting but keep your powder dry and be patient and not too aggressive with the entries would be Would be my my advice, but I hope you all have a good trading day if you are trading it And if you're over in the States or celebrating here as well a good independence day I hope you enjoy your celebrations I'll catch you in the chat if you're sticking around, but if not, I hope you have a good rest of rest of your day