 I do believe there will be at least one test tomorrow of the 50-day moving average and then we'll see what happens after, right? Again, I don't think they're going to break it on the first shot, right? So it would be... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly update show. Usually we don't have a Thursday night video. I just kind of like to decompress and recharge the brain, but my son had a basketball game yesterday and I couldn't record. I didn't have enough time to record a video, so here we are. So let's talk about the last time we spoke was a couple of days ago and the NASDAQ reclaimed the 20-day moving average. And we started talking about, well, if you look at the series of events that we kind of went through after the NASDAQ reclaimed the 20-day moving average, you would have... You see kind of just in the last three, four months, you'll see some upside bias taking place. And here is the first order of business. Here's the 20-day supply. You know, pretty much started like a three-week rally. Here was another reclaim, the 20-day supply started kind of like a two-week rally up and down, up and down. A lot of the bias before they gave it up again. And a couple of days ago, we did exactly the same thing. We had a little bit of an inside day yesterday and today the market expanded very, very aggressively. You had nearly a two and a half percent rally on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. That's a good thing, right? Really, really good thing. Yesterday, even though the NASDAQ was kind of teetering up and down, up and down, the major clues yesterday was the big leaders, right? They were all very strong into the close and never sold off for the whole day, despite the NASDAQ going red several times. You had Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple, all very, very strong yesterday. Semiconductors were pretty strong yesterday as well. And it was basically setting up into today's session. And my thoughts yesterday were, I kind of talked about it in the afternoon yesterday and this morning, in the morning strategy, well, let's see what happens here. Maybe we get what we thought was going to happen yesterday, maybe we get them today. And that's exactly what it was this morning. And literally out of the gate, you saw some incredibly aggressive moves, very, very good strength all across the board. And the one thing that I keep on reiterating this point. Number one, just keep this in mind from the long-term view and we'll get to that in a second. But keep this in mind, when you have days that half the market is red, half of technology is red and half the market is green, that's not the day you want to play around with. That's the day the channels contract. And that's what we saw yesterday, even though the leaders were doing very, very well and kind of leading us back up, especially after two, three o'clock. But you saw a lot of stocks still in the red. Today was completely the opposite. Today was everything was green. And the most important part is we reclaimed yesterday's channel. And now we are very, very close to attacking the high here on June the 27th. And more important, right? And this is more important, where kind of the momentum and the sentiment can change. Now again, it's the 50-day moving average. Remember we've been talking about the 50-day moving average in nausea, right guys? An absolute nausea. And you can see here, here was support on the 50-day moving average. And we lost it and started this really, really aggressive bear cycle. And every single time and try to get back above the 50-day, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected. And finally, just a big, big swan dive for the next three to four months. And we are literally, very, very close to at least testing that 50-day moving average again. And you can see it here kind of stretched out here. I think if we start rallying tomorrow and if we can get like a red open, I think there'll be enough value tomorrow just because number one, it's option expiration, right? The weekly expiration. So anything that was strong today and anything that they were making really big, aggressive bets for the beginning of the week into today, going into tomorrow, those are the stocks that probably will get a test of those upper levels. Because again, this week was pretty much put in the theory of there is going to be rallies in the bear market. And that's where we are. Always keep this in mind. Until we reclaim this 50-day moving average on the close, we are still deemed to be in a bear market. Now that could easily, easily change if the bulls do their job over the next day or so, right? In the next couple of sessions, that could quickly change. And risk can be very, very quickly put back on the table as they say on social media, risk on, right? But we need to close over that 50-day. And that's the most important part. We don't want to run there in anticipation. We don't want to start going heavy building a book. In anticipation, what you want to do is actually see a test there, right? And then the next day take it through. So yeah, in the next couple of sessions is going to be super duper important for the bulls. Next week is going to be predicated based on how we close tomorrow. And I think that's going to be a very, very fair point. And I think if we gap up into supply, right, and we get rejected and start rolling over, that's not what the bulls want to see. That's absolutely not what the bulls want to see. We want to see the market open up either flat or down a little bit, trap some shorts. I think there's a reversal today, right? Back to the downside and trap them and start squeezing back to the 50-day moving average. The biggest healthy fear. And again, I always talk about reality. Again, I always speak devil's advocate because you have to know the dangers. The problem is if we open right at the 50-day moving average around this 290s, 670s, 297, there's a high probability that will get, that will be the high print of the day and we start rolling around. So it's going to be very, very important to see how the futures react tonight. It will be very, very important to see how they especially trade on the overnight. You know, we might get a little bit of clues after the close of what might happen. If you look at some, you know, breaking news here, you got Twitter, right? The Twitter Tesla saga, you know, is Elon going to buy them? Is he not going to buy them? You know, there's, you know, there's some doubts now that the deal is going to be done and if you look at Twitter after the close is down 5%, 6%. Again, is that going to derail the market? Probably not, right? I don't think, you know, I don't think there's a, there's a circumstances that Tesla, that Twitter is going to be such a big influence on the market that it's going to take down everything, right? It's just not there. It's just not one of the leaders. It's not one of the darlings on Wall Street. Again, no offense to the stock. We all use the product. I'm pretty sure to say we kind of like the product. But the point is, I don't think it's not an Amazon. It's not, you know, it's not an Apple. It's not a Google that's going to take down the market. So I think any selling on Twitter tomorrow probably does get engulfed as well. If I just don't believe in the theory that, hey, they're just walking away from the deal, it'll be some back and forth, back and forth. But at least for the overnight, you're getting a little bit of news coming out that this deal might not be 100% slam dunk done. So we'll see. We'll see what happens. But I do believe we will have at least one shot, whether they open up red tomorrow, whether they open up flat tomorrow, whether they open up green tomorrow, I think there will be at least a shot. Again, based on what we've seen this week, based on the option flow, I do believe there will be at least one test tomorrow of the 50 day moving average. And then we'll see what happens after, right? Again, I don't think they're going to break it on the first shot, right? So it wouldn't be a shock to me that, you know, this thing gets rejected and starts rolling over. But again, rolling over tomorrow doesn't mean they can't reclaim it back on Monday. That's what I'm saying. I think the next two sessions tomorrow and Monday are going to be very, very important. And if you look at the spies, for example, right, they have a little bit more room to run today. The spies reclaim the 20 day moving average. And again, you still have a lot of room here on the S&P 500. And the next measure of potential here is roughly $393. So there's, you know, there's possible there could be a little bit of a disconnect in the next couple of days. But on the surface, we are bullish right now. Again, it's very, very easy to turn around, very, very easy to turn around two days from now. And if they can't reclaim back the 50 day moving average and say, oh, all this was just another tease, just to say the same way we saw in January, February, March, it was another tease, just the way we saw in May. And now there's another tease that we're seeing in June slash July, actually July. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. But you know, but definitely on the surface, you know, you want to start looking at names that are coming out the bottom channels. And that was where all the big moves happen today. Again, you really didn't need to be super duper creative. Remember, what the NASDAQ 100 does is going to mirror its members. And when you look at the Qs, right, if the Qs had a move today up six bucks, which is phenomenal moves, yeah, you're going to have moves that are going to mirror the members, you know, Tesla went out of its mind. Again, you see how Tesla is mirroring, mirroring the NASDAQ, right? Almost exactly the same thing. Amazon continues to be a really big mover. You know, ever since it took out this 111 area, it reclaimed the 50 day moving average yesterday. And now it's testing that 18, 18 and a half $20 level, probably in the next day or so. We'll see, you know, we'll see what happens there. Google continues to be an absolute monster. Microsoft has been crazy ever since it took out the 60, the 260 area. And now it's building two days above the 50 day moving average. So again, you could go through, you know, tons of charts, but they're all pretty much are going to be kind of mirroring the NASDAQ 100. And the group that is really, really leading right now, at least, you know, in the last few days have been the semiconductors. Everything that was weak last week, well, it's not weak anymore. You know, Nvidia really, really big, beautiful bounce here over the last couple of days. That's, you know, obviously my drug of choice. When I look at the semiconductors, you got AMD again, mirroring Nvidia that's going to mirror the Qs. So it's one of those scenarios that everything is kind of moving orderly. And again, when you go into tomorrow, just be conscious where the NASDAQ 50 day moving average is. You have to be because you can't buy a stock as we're approaching the 50 day moving average, because I don't care how good your chart looks. If you're buying a stock and we're right about to hit the 50 day moving average, there's a high probability at least for tomorrow, your trade's going to get rejected. So be very, very conscious of this, you know, 29670s, 297 level. However, if we do close, and this is a very, very important part, because again, we want to be prepared. If we do close tomorrow, you know, if we close tomorrow above 297, then there's a high probability we start continuing this rally going into this next week. But again, the most important point is don't put the cart in front of the horse, don't anticipate, let it all play out. So let's talk about today, a super aggressive day, you know, a lot of big moves. I mean, that's, that's all you could say a lot of big moves. And here's how we kind of started the day, right? Here's kind of how we started the day. So yeah, so this morning, right this morning, I was sitting there around seven o'clock in the morning, and I'm like, yo, there's a guy, you usually don't see a lot of big buyers pre-market unless, you know, they knew some sort of news is coming out. There was a guy sitting there at seven o'clock, 730, all the way up to like eight o'clock in the morning Eastern time, there was a guy sitting there bidding 20,000 a clip, right? He bought, he sat there for 701, they hit him for stock. He went to 701 again, he replenished, they hit him for another 20,000. He went to 702, they, he got more stock. So he bought at least like 60,000, 70,000 shares. I've never seen that on Tesla pre-market. And I've never, I trade Tesla every day. I've never seen that pre-market. So the most important part was right after this thing, I'm like, look, look, there's another 25. This guy's just literally coming in. And this was the area here, 704 is the base. That's the most important part, it needs to get above and stay above the 60 minute supply. Why was 704 important? Because again, this is also the 10 day moving average, right? And this is what we talk about, that's the birth of the trade. And you see the 10 day was sitting there at 703.5, 704. And once it took out 704, I mean, again, if your young children ever asked you where babies, how babies are come from, they've shown this candle here. This was just an absolute monster, monster move. And now, Tesla is setting up for that 50 day run, just like the Q's is setting up for the 50 day run. I think there's a high probability, especially if they open it up lower tomorrow. There's a high probability. If they trap shorts, you're going to get a move into this 143, 144, excuse me, 743, 744 area for tomorrow. You got big, big 750 weekly call buyers today all day. When this thing was moving up, you had the 715, 720, 735, 740, 750 weekly is nonstop, 3, 4, 5, 6, $800,000 clip, just big, big institutional money flow. So I still think this will be one more push tomorrow into this 742, 743 level, big, big move. That was definitely the trade of the day. Netflix, again, as you can imagine, every Nasdaq stock is getting pulled up here. Netflix 18650, 187 needs to build. Here is Netflix, right? Everything was coming off the bottom channels here. So the same thing with Netflix, it got above the 50 day moving average again. Here is the 8650, right? 8650, 87 level. Close pretty much at the highs of the day. I think it gets one more push. I might see the 9220's test tomorrow. So keep an eye on that. Microsoft has been a big, big runner ever since the 260 level. Here is another channel, been on a nice run. Again, since the original channel, 627 highs is 268, 30 needs to build. Again, not a big move from that pivot, but overall, really nice move here. Nice move coming out of this channel. This is the highest close, traded up to 269 and changed. This thing confirms tomorrow. It'll have more upside. Meta, I like Meta. They came out some news in the middle of the day. Some bad news, blah, blah, blah, some antitrust, in a bullish scenario, and I don't want to call it a bull market, but in a bullish scenario, they're always going to sweep irrelevant bad news onto the rug. 171, 75 needs to build. I still like it for tomorrow. This is the highest close in this whole formation on Meta World piece, aka Ron Artest, aka Facebook. I'll always know it as Facebook. Traded up to almost 73. This thing starts building 73. It should have an extension for tomorrow. So keep an eye on that. EVFM for little guys, 143 and 150 traded up to 157, and then it died on a vine. Amazon continues to be really good. 115 needs to build. Here was Amazon. You could tell just everything was moving up here. Here's the 115. 50 off the 50-day moving average. Went to 17. I think this thing starts pushing that 18, 18 and a half level if there's another run into the 50-day moving average with the Qs. Boeing had a nice move today. 138.70 needs to build. Here was Boeing. Here was Boeing. Took out the 138.50. I said there's a shot here at 142. Traded right to 142.30. Really nice move there as well. Pretty seamless day. Yeah, 142 on deck. Pretty seamless day today. Yeah, let's roll, man. Let's roll. Here's the 269 supply. Let's roll. 731 launched it. 731 next, and then 742.50. They come up for the 750. It's a beautiful move. Just an absolute gorgeous move. I think that's it. I think that's it. So that's it. So we're set up tomorrow. We're set up tomorrow. Hopefully everybody is doing well. The last couple of Fridays have been really, really aggressive. Hopefully tomorrow will play out just all like the other Fridays. Hopefully everybody has a great day. Make sure to again, stay healthy, stay happy, smile. Again, life is so much easier when you have a smile on your face. Make sure you're there to please yourself, please others, but make sure you're there, right? God's will. Guys, have a great night. God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow.