 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network You may have heard me discussing last week how I built out a model for totals in the NFL during the week And I was like, okay, you know, I've been putting this off for a while I've wanted to do it I've wanted to have that both for betting in also for daily fantasy purposes and so I made the model last week Bad timing because this week in week 16 is an outlier in terms of the weather across the Midwest We've got games with 27 mile per hour winds. We've got blizzards. We've got snow. We've got blowing snow dangerous wind conditions and You know, it's tough to have a lot of confidence in the model that you just built when you get extremes So tough timing on that it is going to be a defining key of this slate is trying to identify You know, do we want to just stay away from these wind games? How does it impact things who could benefit from this stuff and it's a lot of questions to be answers We're gonna break down week 16 the NFL take a look at what my numbers are saying if it is weak focusing primarily on not the totals To avoid that one pitfall there and also take a look at my updated power rankings entering week 16 This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here Like I said to break down NFL week number 16 Take a look at what my numbers are saying in terms of spreads money lines and totals this week I'm also taking a look at my updated power rankings entering week 16 We'll also recap what went down here on the show this past week before we do that though quick reminder to make sure you are Subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast funky schedule for this week because of travel I'll be leaving to travel for the holidays on Wednesday nights So we're gonna record our week 16 full NFL preview on Wednesday Austin Swain will swing by break down this thoughts on the week 16 Slate also tomorrow our first college basketball men's college basketball break down of the year John Rothstein We'll swing by and talk about early takeaways from this year Teams that he thinks may be legit teams that have struggled that may bounce back and more so good talk to John Once again as he did last year prior to the final four that'll be up on the cover in the spread podcast feed In the afternoon We'll also have the week 16 breakdown in the evening Fandall YouTube page and up on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts Looking to get more out of this NFL season Well now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use Then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So you don't miss out your chance on your first no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets when you join Fandall make every moment more this season with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus in select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is not non withdrawal but free bets that expire in 14 days restricts supply see terms at sportsbook. Fandall calm gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall calm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step protection acceptify through 3 4 2 In Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text hope and why or in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler net now as we did here on the show last week I wanted to go through the power rankings in my two models to discuss where things stand right now some discrepancies and teams that may be Higher than expected or lower than expected and break down takeaways from that heading into week 16 now as with last week This will include injury adjustments for weeks is 16 specifically so This includes the Eagles under Gardner Minshew for this week meeting You will not hear me talk about the Eagles in the top tier this week Long term they still ranked third in my unadjusted model behind Buffalo in Kansas City So we can still be super optimistic about the Eagles But they will not be in the upper tier for this week as a result of the downgrade from Perth's down to Minshew The top of the power rankings between the two models is the same as last week The cheese and won the bills and the other and again in case you weren't here last week the reason the cheese are lower in one is because The other model expects regression for how efficient they've been on late-downs. They have been Unreal now. That's the reason they're lower. There's still second behind the bills in that model But it's important to note that that regression may not occur because Patrick Mahomes is not human So that may not happen and it's possible that that model is underrating them as a result But that's why they're lower there again. They're still second behind the bills But that's why they're first and one second in the other That's the one thing there the bills in the model with the cheese are first They're actually third and the reason they're third is because the 49ers have actually jumped them They are up to second in my traditional model I've been adjusting them down each week for Brock Purdy and then for Debo Samuel And I just keep on adjusting less and less as a sample expands on them playing well with Purdy instead of Garoppolo Now I could be wrong on this There is still a downward adjustment because I have a lot of respect for how efficient an offense can be under Jimmy Garoppolo And it's hard to expect Purdy to keep this up when there's no Debo Samuel for this week specifically So I think this number could be too high. It could be too optimistic about this 49ers team But this defense is playing lights out Purdy has been very efficient in his first three games. So I don't know man It's hard to keep on being wrong on them because I'm over adjusting Due to injuries, it could just be variants. It could be that I've just been wrong I happenstance these past couple of weeks, but I think for me I think it's the right approach to keep adjusting down less and less as purdy keeps on playing well without Debo I have interest in the 49ers this week after I've betting against them for like the past month or so I have interest now This will probably be the week where purdy regresses turns back into sophomore junior senior year Brock purdy freshman year Brock purdy is pretty sweet But like this could be the year where he turns back into that that uh the college version we'll see but I'm more in now on them than I have been previously We talked about the Dallas talked about Cincinnati those two teams still in the top five for me this week No real changes there Philly will be there once they're healthy One team I want to highlight in being very interesting is the Jags again This is with injury adjustments. So they're above the Eagles based on this model But my traditional model has the Jags ranked eighth. That's very high. Um, but It's the same discussion we had last week with the Lions where That model leans heavily on passing efficiency Efficiency and Trevor Lawrence is shredding right now The Jags actually ranked third in adjusted passing efficiency by number fires metrics My numbers have been high in the Jags throughout this year Um, and it could be that this is continuing into this model and you're like, okay You've gotten too high on them. I can understand that My model is told me to to bet the Jags money line seven times this year They were underdogs in all seven of those games But the Jags went six in one of those games as underdogs in every single one So although the model has been high on them, I don't think it's been wrong on them Now the Jags get the Jets this week. The Jets are super high in my other model So there is this agreement here one model says you bet the Jags one says you bet the Jets I'm going to stay away as a result of that but I do think the Jags are a very good offense I was going to say good team, but defense can be a little bit shaky They might not be eighth like the one model has them right now But I'm very into them. Uh, they'd be ninth again if you put, uh, John Hurts back on the Eagles, but I think they're very fun So the Jags a team that my numbers have been high on all throughout this year They're so high on them and I don't know if it's necessarily wrong to be that high The final team I wanted to touch on is the Steelers Their defense really really good with TJ Watt being back and that matters a lot So in the model that I think is more right on them They're like 14th right now again adjusting for health. Uh, that is an upward adjustment for TJ Watt Make if it's Patrick a downward adjustment in for some other teams. So 14th is high They're a 11th in the other. Um, that's probably too high. Uh, I don't know that one seems a little bit a little bit high But my model doesn't have a positive ROI in betting their money lines this year And that's the model that's lower on them. I would not hand rank them in this high, but They're playing better football. I think it's kind of flowing a bit under the radar How good they bet the one model the one that's higher on them does like the Steelers minus two and a half against the Raiders this week I don't think that's totally unfair the other one disagrees. So I'm not betting on that one But I do think it's noteworthy how high The Steelers are once you put Watt in there and it's also worth mentioning like there's been this streak of Mike Tomlin Finishing above 500 they could still do that if they went out and it's not like totally outlandish. So they're not going to make the playoffs, but like You know, I think that the Steelers are better than expected. So if you're feeling good about the Raiders this week, you know After their their big win last week Give some consideration to how good that Steelers defense is uh with tj wapping in there and Make sure you still want to bet the Raiders after considering those factors So power rankings there again top five teams pretty definitive for me Putting the 49ers back in there, uh after adjusting less down for Purdy and no Debo, but And then the Eagles back up there too once you put Hertz back in there before right now That is where things stand the power rankings Let's take those power rankings now and parlay them into week 16 and take a look at where we're seeing value for this week now talk before about how The jags and the jet scheme is interesting because one model likes the jags one likes the jets Had the same thing this past week where one model said bet the lions one model said bet the jets Now that's the different issue for this week But the the model that liked the lions obviously did wind up winning that bet Um or the the battle between the the two models there and that model wants to bet the lions once again this week So i'm gonna lay the two and a half with the lions on the road against the panthers now That word road may have gotten your attention because there's this this road and jared golf narrative and I don't blame them, you know jared golf in the past and he was with the rams Didn't look good when he played outdoors when he played in cold temperatures 29 degrees the temperature for this game But if you look at the games that jared golf has played on the road with a fully healthy amon raw saint brown this year He's at point 31 passing net expected points per drop back which is number fires epa model tends to be a little bit higher than some of the other epa models so scale that down a bit but Even if you just look at goss passing epa in those games, it's sick. It's a disgusting number So i'm not expecting that to continue to be that good But can they cover two and a half against the panthers? I think with this offense they Probably can i've gotten upgrade in there for the panthers with sam darnold. I think that they're a better team now than they were before I think that does matter But the defense is playing pretty good football right now Golf has been very efficient. He had the second icpa per drop back against the jets in a game this year behind Uh jacobi preset up there with joe burrow as well So this game opened at three got under three to two and a half overnight So I will lay to two and a half with the lines in this one That model's been hiding them for the past month and a half or so and they've been great So i'm not going to stop that now despite respecting what the panthers have done since adding sand darnold into the fold We've got the snow game in cleveland And again from a total perspective I'm not sure what to do with this one If I add the wind speed in here, uh, it does drop the total by five points. So that's something but Uh currently the wind speeds for cleveland versus new Orleans are projected at 27 miles per hour It sounds miserable I'm going to take the sames plus three in this game Both of my models say this number should be under three here Once you suck that total down to 31 and a half make it a lower scoring game I think that becomes even more valuable to get the three points here And what could be a very low scoring game the sames passing offense has been weirdly efficient under andy dalton counterpoint is that may not matter Given the weather but and we think a nick job We think always think a nick job when it comes to the winds being high bad weather like okay Brown's clean on the nick job, but the saints can also do that with tason hill and alvin chimera I think we're kind of overlooking the tason factor in this game I'm not as low on the browns as most people are right now I think that they've shown some signs of improvement recently, especially once you account for Weather last week the the ravens defense last week and stuff like that I just think this should be under three I'm going to take the points here and roll with the saints plus three against the browns for this week I talk last week about how I typically don't tease games because I have a hard time Finding multiple games. I like that bit the ideal criterion. Give me a cross and key numbers This week is very different because I think there are three teams that are Legitimately worth teasing those teams are the 49ers the titans and the ravens You can pick whichever combo of those two that you want I'll with the six point teaser with the 49ers favor by seven and a half against the commanders the titans favor by seven against the texans And the ravens favor by seven and a half against the falcons My two preferred ones here are the 49ers and the ravens I know there's the risk of lamar jackson out playing but i'm also a tad worried about ryan tannahill not playing for the titans I think lamar should be good to go for the ravens So my preferred route here would be to tease the 49ers to one and a half and the ravens to one and a half as well If you do that a fandal sportsbook, it's at minus 134. You can get a better number than that elsewhere So I would recommend shopping around. I got a minus 120. So shop around on this both with the Both with that count combo and with the others I've got the 49ers favor by 10.6 in this game the titans favor by 8.6 and the ravens favor by 8.7 So all three of those games showing value relative to their current spread in a vacuum and it gets me Teasing it gets me across both three and seven for all three of these games So I would give consideration to those three I'd prefer them as teaser legs versus straight bets because you are across the key number of seven and The odds and lands on seven exactly are pretty high the odds lands on three are still pretty high as well Which is why I prefer them as teaser legs versus straight up But all three very in play for me with baltimore in san francisco being the preferences for this week Finally, I think you could give some thought to the eagles with gardener minchew that number's at six right now My two models had the cowboys favor by 4.0 and 5.7. So again, it's six right now Which means the 5.7 one not showing a lot of value. Which is why I'm not taking it right now But I do think it becomes in play If this were to move more now it's still held steady at six for a while I think that's kind of the fair market value with where things stand right now We could see that extend maybe we get six and a half Maybe we get seven once Hertz is officially ruled out I'm not sure if that'll happen But I do think that if it does I'd have interest potentially in the eagles money That's plus 220 right now. I think there's value in that with minchew just because you know minchew is not as good as Hertz It's not close. He's a an actual downgrade, but I think the market's finally reflecting that now with this being at six points The infrastructure here is good. It's tremendous offensive line tremendous pass catchers the good defense as well So the infrastructure matters a lot and that's a general a big thing for a quarterback So even with a big downgrade from Hertz to minchew in my model I still think uh the models still think the the spread should be 4.0 or 5.7 So if we do get More movement in this game, I could see myself adding the eagles I got the cowboys a minus three even money yesterday So I have not taken the eagles here because I don't really want to nullify what I think is a good bet that's gotten good clv but If you see more movement Toward the cowboys is this one lengthens from six maybe to six and a half or seven if it gets there I don't think it will but if it does I'd be okay, but in the eagles at that point right now Currently a stay away for me Now let's talk about the totals because I did build out that model. I don't want it to go totally for knots and again Probably not going to bet the win games. Uh, it's it's tough. I will get a lot of data on heavy wins So I guess that's a positive to look forward. So I guess that's a good thing, you know looking forward We can be happy about that but I don't have a ton of confidence in where it's at right now to encapsulate the outlier spots in terms of The weather and the wind one spot where it's showing value the total model And the wind is not a factor is in indianapolis I want the under on monday night football for the chargers and the colts now caveat here is I took the under on colts vikings last week Obviously that did not go very well But my model is this total at 41.66. It is a 46.5 right now. You can get 47 still at some spots This chargers offense Isn't one that relies on explosion. It's not an explosive offense unless they're pushed like if they have to be explosive They can be which means if they were to fall behind against the colts like the vikings did they could claw their way back As to the colts offense, they're not going to have jonathan taylor, which means they're without their best offensive piece They might have a tougher time exploiting the chargers rushing defense This rush offense has been an efficient with taylor this year. You take them out probably going to get worse So the pace in this game is pretty high. That helps. Uh, there's no wind here that helps But I think these teams aren't that explosive in their current states Which means they're probably more under teams than they are over teams The chargers defense has also made a lot of good strides recently not necessarily against the rush But like overall so I'll take under 46 and a half try to dabble in that new model. See what happens for this week um I think that is the right way to read that monday night game between the chargers and the colts So to recap things I am locking in right now I'm taking the alliance minus two and a half against the panthers the saints plus three against the browns colts and chargers under 46 and a half and then considering the 49ers titans and ravens and teasers down to one and a half for the ravens and 49ers And down to one for the titans and if we get movements in cowboys eagles I'd be willing to add the eagles, uh, but Not totally sold that winds up happening. So Overall, I think it's a it's a week where we can't avoid the really bad weather Hopefully get some good value and we'll see how things play out throughout this week That's all we have for now for the week 16 first look Like I said, we'll have our full week 16 breakdown coming up tomorrow with austin swam going up in the evening On the fandal youtube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed before we close up for today Though got to look back at last week and recap stuff here on the show We had ed fang on to preview the world cup final What a blast that was uh, the entire match was a delight ed did a france to lift the cup at minus 106 And the other bet was even goals at minus 110. So obviously argentina one didn't get that one, but Even goals hit as they were tied to two entering extra time A split on ed there I had a lot of fun talking world cup this year even though I know nothing about it I enjoyed watching the games enjoyed talking about it with people who do know stuff about this this uh This sports i'm looking forward to talking about again in the summer for the women's tournaments That starts in july looked ahead in the calendar to see where that was So we'll talk about it then in the summer to get some women's world cup action But had a fun time with the men's side this year We had ryan williams on to preview the saturday and sunday nfl games find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w ryan went two four and one on the sides and totals this week He had the dolphins bills over 42 and a half and the jaguars plus four and a half The losses were the seahawks plus three and a half the bills minus seven The titans chargers over 47 and a half and the bucks plus three and a half push for riders on the chargers minus three so I still get year overall for ryan and i'm looking forward to having him in a few weeks again once he is back from fraternity leave Uh, so we'll talk to ryan then i'm looking forward to that for sure We had jay jzakari snon to talk props yardage bets were out pierce over 38 and a half and uh receiving yards and mike evans Under 58 and a half receiving yards and evans Finally showed life especially early in that game. I know the thing is kind of unraveling for the bucks But he looked good early on he looked good He got some yardage. I guess I should say early on he went over pierce went under Crazy positive script for the quilts in that game. They got ahead by again 33 nothing a half. So He got four targets didn't catch any of them Um, but the script there did not work in jj's favor touchdown. That was jk dobbins a plus 220 I think it was a good price shop. Uh, it was a lot shorter than that most places good matchup dobbins ran really well in that game They just couldn't score. Uh, so tough one on that one. Um, but It's kind of the way the that things go for sure when talking props my week was frustrating once again I had a couple underdog moneyline winners with the jags and the giants the jags Plus 180 the giants plus 176. That was good Uh, again the jags been a very good team to me so far this year the giants Not as good, but you know, uh had some fun there for sure got the push on them two weeks before With the commanders and that same matchups. That was good I lost the seattle moneyline a plus 154. I deserved to lose that totally fair I had the vikings colts under 48 and a half also deserved to lose that Other two were the eagles minus eight and a half and the vikings minus four the vikings Very clearly the better team in that game. They made mistakes. That's why they were down 33 nothing. That's why they had to scramble if you look at like the actual like Like the when they actually had to make drives the vikings were the much better team in that game It's still getting back to win didn't cover. Uh, they won by three. That was frustrating Eagles won by five. Uh bears had that touchdown uh to byron pringle It had they'd gotten over eight and a half and then uh the back I want to call it a backdoor cover that kind of That undersells the bears the bears played well and potentially i over or underestimated them So backdoor cover. I think wouldn't accurately portray what went down there I mentioned the eagles were a good teaser team If you tease them from eight and a half would have been two and a half I couldn't find anyone to pair them with hopefully you did because I didn't I took a straight at eight and a half Individual leg there that loss that was frustrating better frustrating year overall Especially with both the eagles and the vikings winning but not covering That'll rear to your but an annoying year good to get the jags and the giants But overall pretty annoying in week number 15 Finally, we had tom vecchio on last night to talk the rands and the packers find tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom Tom went two for three and yardage props probably should have had three for three there if not for an injury He was over one on the touchdown props. So if you scaled well, you likely profited despite the injury there The wins were robert tonion under 22 and a half receiving yards cam acres over 55 and a half rushing Acres finished 65 looked pretty good in that game tonion had four So easy wins there for tom on those two the loss was aj dillon over 49 and a half rushing yards dillon Was at 36 in the third quarter when he left to be evaluated for concussion and didn't come back He was looking really good in that game ran really well getting a lot of usage So the over probably would have hit had dillon stayed in but injuries are a part of betting props kind of how it goes um You have to account for that and your your uh In your handicapping so you know probably should have gone three for three But that's part of the sport for sure can't complain too much and still profit life for tom again If you scaled well touchdown bet was alan lasarda plus 270 lasard took a bit of a back seat with romeo dodds being back But overall, I think tom had a good read on that game and hopefully you were able to scale well and still profit there So overall toughly for the podcast. Um, hopefully we can bounce back here this afternoon week I don't know. We'll see. Uh, it's been been a rough year overall But we'll see if we can bounce back here in week number 16 I'm happy to have this totals model now to give another route for Find some value and we'll see how things play out for it this week That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread a big day coming up tomorrow As mentioned john rosti will spring spring by to break down his early takeaways from the men's college basket policies And talk about some surgers talk about teams he expects to bounce back and other takeaways That'll be up Again probably around 11 or so in the morning on the covering the spread podcast feed Then we'll have the week 16 preview of lost and swam coming up in the afternoon Four shows this week no show friday with jay jzak recent due to that being christmas eve So back with you or day before christmas eve Back with you three shows next week no monday night show next week Back with you tuesday wednesday and thursday if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis and j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets in week 16. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Talk about some men's college basketball. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network