 Okay, very good morning. I hope everyone is doing well. It's Wednesday the 18th of December quick heads up Sam is doing the big fat Christmas market quiz Something we do here at Amplify Trading every year a bit of fun, but these are all market related questions and Unfortunately, I can't take part because I've actually seen and contributed to some of the questions But I won't unveil yet what some of the big prizes are but everyone's invited to take part So three o'clock London time Sam will come on. He'll run a live feed via our YouTube channel So if you want a chance to take part and test your knowledge about everything that's happened in markets over the last 12 months It's going to be a good one So so join us then what we need to do is subscribe to the channel hit the bell icon Then you'll get notified when we begin otherwise just starting with The briefing it's actually not too much for me to comment on so there's not really any new updates on Brexit related headlines There's nothing really going on with us trying to trade wars at the moment They're probably the two hottest themes of the last week or so But there is some significant equity stories whether it's a merger agreement in the automotive sector or One of the key bellwethers in the US FedEx having a profit warning last night There are a couple of stories I can fill you in on But looking at the cross asset class mixed this morning It's very much reflective of abbi as I've just mentioned. It's pretty quiet overall The dollar index and maybe a touch stronger, but only one tenth of a percent pretty sideways for the currency markets at the moment In terms of the British pound Stabilizing I was just going to go back and look at briefly that chart we had yesterday marked up and You can see that from when we delivered the briefing yesterday It was just about when we had the gap fill from the closing of price before the spike up on the election result If we're looking at the sterling futures contract here But we continue to drift south yesterday as markets have to price in this renewed risk of a no deal, of course Otherwise, I'll come back to that in a second equity index futures pretty quiet oil Hugging the pivot will be at down 40 cents a bit of a pop lower in WTI crude last night You can see that that bigger red candle. These are 30 minute candlesticks there the price moving down by around 40 cents or so Yesterday evening, and of course we had the API all of the trees Released and I can get you up to speed as well with those numbers So let's jump straight into the the headlines And this is one of the first things I wanted to mention because it's like to get a lot of airplay It's kind of the main story that people are running given the fairly quiet macro Developments at the moment. So fear Chrysler and Persio agree to merge in giant auto deal So apparently they've struck a merger pat that would create the world's fourth largest car maker by output With combined revenues of approximately 170 billion euros The transaction expected to complete within 12 to 15 months subject to shareholder approval And then of course regulatory clearances, but this doesn't make them in terms of the actual combined size One of the largest car makers in the world. There's they still wouldn't rank near the top in that respect Combined revenues that would be would be decent Opening calls in terms of the cash market just having a quick look Peugeot shares were called up about 5% ahead of the open So some pretty decent gains for the for the French car maker fear Chrysler up about 2% at the open as well One thing I was just looking at and talking about The auto manufacturers was I was just updating a few crib sheets In regards to the equity indices and I was just having a look at the DAX Composition and obviously automakers in Germany have suffered greatly under a kind of a combination of protectionism coming out the US specifically targeting tariffs on the lights of BMW Volkswagen Daimler and so on But also you remember we had China just a few days ago coming out saying they could also retaliate if the German government was to ban Huawei's 5g network and obviously the way to hurt Germany or at least to threaten them in that type of situation is to Target the car makers given as well. There's such an export heavy nation And last time I looked at this sector allocation of the DAX obviously the automobile sector was top Combining those big three automakers although individually not the largest companies Collectively was the largest piece of the pie here that you can see on the left hand side However, what a difference a couple of months makes and given the multiple profit warnings We've had from a lot of these German automotive names including lots of different Regulatory issues that they've had Compliance issues with the emissions side as well over the years and the automobile sector now is just ranking all the way down at fifth spot Below farmer software insurance and chemicals So they're definitely quite interesting to see how quickly the the tie can turn there and the underlying composition of course of these indices Can alter the other company that I thought was worth mentioning is FedEx now for any of those new to markets It's not the FedEx is a particularly large company But it is often seen as a bit of what they call or classifiers of bellwether that meaning that the Frequency of the use of the company services to deliver goods would be reflective then of consumers purchasing of say gifts to then use FedEx to send or consumers buying Goods for themselves. So the weaker their business then the weaker it would reflect on the overall Economic environment and as you can see here from the title. They've slid after their second profit warning So it's a second time in three months in fact that they've cut their annual earnings guidance They've cited as you can see a weak economy higher costs and also lots of delivery deal with Amazon Amazon of course just looking to take everything in the house be the Giant conglomerate that they are not utilizing any more the uses of the likes of FedEx Which is a big blow for them as well. So Aftermarket last night when this news broke their shares were down about six percent So, yeah, if you're looking for other signs as to think about are we nearing a bit of a top for this equity run? Another thing of course that that people talk about at this time of year and let's just let's just have a quick look at the S&P at the moment Perhaps put it on a 240 so we can look at a bit of a longer time frame I mean just looking where we are at the moment I would say it's going to be pretty tough going for us to break the all-time high now having established that above the 3200 level Only within the last week or in fact yesterday Fresh catalysts to really push us higher again Given the proximity of Christmas in year end I think is is limited. So obviously these things are not impossible, but I would say we need something Surprisingly positive to come out The one thing as well that will probably help the consolidation if anything of perhaps the equity move This you know solid gain that we've had more recently through December in the recovery throughout the month Is that obviously Trump will want to deliver a little Christmas present? Not just in terms of for markets But for the consumer to validate that his policies are in fact working by just Connecting that to the height of the stock market That's his kind of political way of just going about his business The other things with Trump as we discussed yesterday the house is looking like they are going to impeach the president But as I said, I don't really see that as a risk to price at this point and I think that's reflected In the fact that everyone knows he's going to get impeached by the house It's not going to pass the Senate and so therefore, you know, if this was going to be a market moving piece of information It already would have done so and it hasn't so and again the likelihood of actual Removal from the White House is Minimal if not non-existent. So I wouldn't get too worried about that So all in all whether or not we consolidate in this 3192 to 3203 until the end of the year Perhaps we see a pullback and if we did then you know You've got good areas now technically where the S&P is likely to to find some decent support But all in all even if we did pull back a percent Also, I don't think that that's anything to get too worried about and I think now we just see out the year And if I was looking a little bit more conservative for a range 5950 up into Wards where we are at the moment will probably be the kind of price area. I'd be looking at Talking of Brexit as I said the pound was Continuing to come down yesterday. So I mean, let's just have a look from a percentage point of view How far we've gone from the actual Peak of the actual election night to the low of yesterday. We've now come off about three and a quarter percent for cable as This becomes a little bit more of a distinct reality now of where are we heading given the shift in The toughness on the Brexit legislation that Boris is going to look to push through in the Wab at the end of the week I'm not going to go through this in in all detail. What I'll do is I'll just pop it in the chat room I did share it on my my Twitter account as well if you wanted to have a look at this graphic But I guess just summarizing a couple of the options and the decisions that need to be made Going forward and their respective time frames as well in order for that to happen Otherwise elsewhere, let's just have a look at WTI crude I did say and show you that the price dropped overnight This comes as you can see here the headline crude figure showed a build of 4.7 million expectations were for a drawdown of 1.5 So after four days of gains, the report shows US stockpiles are swelling once again Cushing was a drawdown of about 300,000 gasoline a bit of 5.6 million distillates a bill of 3.7 so pretty sizable crude and gasoline combo there And then around the 5 million mark just bumping crude oil prices down from where we were trading just shy of a 61 hand or yesterday Back a bit of a pullback of 50 cents or so so that's setting us up for the data we'll get later on today Final thing actually just quickly jumping back to the UK political side of things just wanted to mention this because Literally earlier a day or so ago when I was looking at this Rebecca long Bailey was seen as the outright favorite for the next Labour leader and Keir Starmer who on the night of the election was seen as the outright favorite He had dropped a third and only priced in the booking or in the betting market about 12% Overnight though, there's been a significant shift in the betting market backing Keir Starmer Keir Starmer, of course Was or can Potentially cause a bit of friction with the Northeast because he was very much a backer of a second referendum more definitively than say Corbyn was However, you could say that he's a little bit more towards the centrist side of the left Which would be very different from Rebecca long Bailey who's very much part of the Corbynista crew so She's come off and the more I'd say center left candidates Lisa Nandy's taken a bit of a bit of a pop to the upside But Keir Starmer taking the most biggest Move at the moment. It does come you've probably seen on Twitter Let me just see if I if I go on my Twitter account here You can see on the on the right-hand side things that are trending on Twitter this morning And this this really sums it up actually I didn't plan on on seeing this But you can see Tony Blair is the number one tweeting thing on Twitter at the moment Now he's come out yesterday and of course Tony Blair being of the of new labor Very much more centrist saying that if this isn't the Definitive sign that labor needs to move to the center again than what is but then you've got that and then the second most trending thing On Twitter is hashtag Corbyn was right. I Mean I've not looked at these tweets yet, but Assumed that they're saying that Boris is a liar Because he's now threatening no deal when he said he was gonna pass his deal So sure I get that but the point I was just one going to share here is that I mean look how divided Labor supporters are here. You've got Tony Blair trending and then you've got Corbyn was right trending Just goes to show the state of the opposition party at the moment until they get that act together and really Unite behind one single direction Then they're gonna be what's gonna be a Tory rule for a while. I guess With the way I'd interpret that Quick look at the calendar UK data well before the UK data You got German iPhone coming up at 9 o'clock and perhaps that can be interesting It's not normally massively market moving because I think people are generally Aware of the current economic state of Germany being fairly dire But the forward outlook is important and if we were to get an upside surprise number I do think that the bigger reaction is is from an upside surprise rather than a downside miss If that makes sense just given how negative people currently are in terms of the behavioral view of Germany at the moment and people wanting to see if not is it gonna get worse or are we hitting a bit of a bottom at the moment and so ifo being then the the main kind of survey to a large sample of actual Companies on the ground that could be an interesting figure. So that's coming out at 9 the headline reading expected at 95 point 5 So a slight improvement on the prior month UK CPI data coming out Not looking for anything really from that those numbers I guess here. It's more a case of at the moment The dominant theme is the pricing in of no deal from Boris if we were near a particularly important, let's say technical level of support for instance It could act as a catalyst Just to break a level in itself I don't think it's really that meaningful as a piece of economic data So even though CPI nearly always very important given it really really is key to monetary policy decision-making The fact that the data is expected to be largely No different from the prior month with we're basically tracking just sub 2% in CPI year-in-year in the UK And I wouldn't be really looking for too many shocks either side Otherwise we get the final eurozone CPI but again final reading So I'd say I foe more of a risk for any euro position than the CPI reading into the US afternoon We get Canadian data at 130. So That does inflation data move the loonie if you are looking at that currency You got the oil infantry from the DOE Coming out 330 so recap of the API as we'll go through again and the setup on on crude oil head of the figures And then that's pretty much it speakers Christine Lagarde does speak in a short while actually so keep an eye out for any comments But I don't think she's gonna say anything She's speaking at a welcoming address in honor of ECB's coer organized by the ECB So not looking for too much given the importance of her speech just given last week feds brain art voter Neutral has been slightly on the other side in recent year or so Speaking at 1015 ECB's coer does speak Himself at 1115 and feds Evans are leaning dove speaking Later on late afternoon London time and then finally The Amphi quiz again happening delivered by the one and only Sam north. I'll be at three o'clock. All right guys That's it. I'll pop that Brexit decision tree in the chat, and I wish you a good day. Thanks very much Hi guys yet looking forward to To the quiz to make sure you're getting your your revision in early doors Head of that will we'll get that running around three o'clock Starting off here S&P you can see Just found a bit of support. Let's bring the pivots onto this chart here Bit of support found on yesterday's lows, which were the pivots and What a range bound trade that would have been in sort of late morning a couple of tests of that and we went up to the high and That 32 hundred still not really confirming a big push above that As of yet anyway the level we're trading now. I would say is pretty significant as well Just above here on the pivot. You've got quite a strong level of resistance Which was good support yesterday. You can see all around 31 97. So we're keeping a watch on that Below these levels of support here 31 92 I think we could I mean it's not a massive move but down to the s1 You've also got the high that we had back on the the Friday double top there around that point You can see here this marked up. So we're keeping a watch on that below where we're trading above 31 97 3200 and the double top from yesterday's high and then the high that we had back on Monday as well So horizontal levels those to be the ones that keep an eye on obviously that trend line from the December low still worth having on us. It's getting a bit steeper here. Let's get bring that in from the third Like so Down to low the 10th and we didn't quite make it on the 12th, but I still have it on as a bit of a guide You know, you'd almost be like you're happy to stay overall long and S&P as long as that goes through in terms of drivers throughout the day Sorry The data in the afternoon US wise isn't going to be massively market moving unless the oil numbers are incredibly out of line So again trade developments will be something to focus on here or any other kind of risk As well, but for now it seems to be still a case of Overall looking for places to get long in this market really unless it breaks that trend line Obviously that goes for the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones as well Both actually you can see very similar just above that pivot But have some resistance here on the the Nasdaq to keep an eye on before you get to the double top on their all-time highs The Dow as well perhaps leading the way, but not quite breaking through and again very similar in that double top all-time highs from yesterday and Monday as well having a look over at the pound obviously come down yesterday Is around this sort of time where we filled the gap free and and that was when we were 300 pips below Friday's high and we almost touched 131 in early hours this morning if we go to the high in the futures at 135 and a half Big big move to the downside almost when it's test my maths out here almost 450 pips which is incredible Have we found the bottom that is the question What an area you would have to say to the people to look to get back in again You know if you could offer people 131 which was the the low that we had on the election day an area to get in following an election win for the Conservatives Maybe this is the point of Interest to get in I don't know maybe in terms of being confident on this in terms of a Resistance point maybe where you could look to to get in you obviously the pivot is a long way away and Literally from the low is a hundred pips But you can see we're starting to maybe with these Previous highs just get squeezed in so I would have this on Just as a bit of a guide starting from 4 30 yesterday Afternoon you've got those three tests here one Two three so I think it's the worst idea in the world to perhaps look for a long above that trend I'm targeting towards the the pivot here in the futures which you know that was to happen now from 3166 to you know the 132 hand on a bit above not a bad little place to to get in above there Obviously you can have a lot of the previous support levels to keep an eye on so there would be a lot of resistance In terms of a bigger move to the downside if the the low that we had 131 and the low the 12th goes then you know again a bigger move perhaps down towards some of the highs that we had on the top of the third or Even the high of the 18th of November could be points of interest for this market to go to Yesterday as well see the euro did drift down a touch into the back end of the session and that continued this morning after a decent start To the day we came up to test some interest in resistance And actually broke through and you can be forgiven for thinking maybe the euro is going to extend here But not quite and we were saying yesterday as we put this on the the 240 about having those trend lines on from the lows Just because it's been the same pattern the whole year For the euro in terms of you start developing these trend lines They break and suddenly you're at the low of the year again in terms of what could maybe drive a break of that trend line today you've got Got a bit of European data out of 10 worth keeping an eye on before You know that the US Well, it was not going to move it. So really potential Data points only 10 a.m. Really going to see possible move here, so Watching that trend line Going from the low of December to the 6th, and then of course below that and we could get a bit interesting again in terms of a very strong resisted support point I'd go with the 111 83 the higher the 21st of November and the 4th 5th and 6th of December before the lows that we got in the 12th and 13th So keep a watch on that other levels to be aware of just above where we're trading If we were to drift out where with the sellers want to protect we can seek some nice support from yesterday afternoon 1237 give or take be keeping a watch on that and maybe you would be Happy to get long more of a medium term or a longer Intra-day trade if it can break above this trend line as well starting from yesterday afternoon So you wrote interesting points coming up most notably you can understand why we found support on this s1 low of yesterday low of Monday Morning as well. So keep key level Definitely want that marked up gold Let's have a quick look relatively range band. I mean just having a look at that It's it's been a tricky market. I would say for overall direction in recent weeks with Are the Fed can be hawkish or dovish? What's the trade situation good comments bad comments and it's struggling really for an overall move And look over the last three trading days. It's done nothing quite range-bound So keep a watch on that 1484 to the upside and the downside s1 and those lows coming in around 1478 In terms of a bigger move 1490 would interest me for a long If we can close the day above that and you can see why This all these lows those highs and as you know to the downside if we break that those trend lines Could be a decent opportunity to get short historically The first two months of the year January February actually not too bad for gold So maybe the opportunity and this is something I would be looking for is to get long above 1490 If we can confirm a break above that but in today looking at this Again drivers not going to be too much. There's no real new headlines out So it have to be something maybe it more unscheduled that would really drive price action here So for now the range-bound trade is not a bad one to look at and just prioritizing The highs from yesterday and the low from the week as well Quick look over oil before we finish up on European equities to see what they're doing a decent afternoon for oil Before coming down on the API and and actually the low that we made today is significant 6037 was the high that we had back on the 13th as well So just have that marked up trend lines are choppy. So probably not Really worth having any of those on so Narrow that down to 15 minute small range if we can get above the 60 58 Obviously looking for a bigger move up to towards the previous support before that API did come out As well, but not too much going on and probably best waiting for the afternoon considering just how small that range is And of course as we know oil more likely to move in the afternoon Anyway, let alone because of the the DOE numbers quick. Look over at the back. Just to wrap things up relatively quiet First 30 minutes has to be said you can see yesterday. We had a decent push lower that continued all the way Until around 10 11 o'clock We obviously filled the gap of the week Pretty quick. We did gap overnight to the downside, but we're not far away Put this on the 15 minute form filling that on the future. So certainly have this Marked up as a point of resistance above that Well, you know US equities could well look to be attacking those Resistance points from yesterday and and get a push through But overall relatively quiet out there data Calendar is going to be you know kicking off from in terms of the pound anyway at at 9 30 Then you got some at 10 o'clock from Europe final inflation numbers So I would say relatively quiet morning the afternoon looking quite similar So maybe more unscheduled Comments would be one to to be aware of and with the rate that Donald Trump is tweeting It would be too surprising to have something going on any questions as usual Please do let us know to see an oil here. Just tick down to its lower point of the day But yeah, any questions do please let us know We'll be live free o'clock UK time for the quiz. Everyone can take part. It'll be done by a Kahoot So you'll all have 60 seconds to answer each question. There'll be no advantage from Anyone doing it in the office. So it's an equal playing field I look forward to having you all join me for that But yeah, any questions ahead of that, please do let us know I hope you'll have a good trading day and I'll catch you all later on