 Now the question is, what happens next? And this is kind of where, again, like I said, we take off our rose-colored glasses and look at the facts, look at the data going for today. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap up show, hope everybody is doing well. So we've been talking about this for a long, long time. I remember, I think I've mentioned this several times, during 2009, when we were still towards the end of the financial crisis, everybody had the same notion, the same notion was, well, when does this market, and when does this market finally go up again? How can the market go down every single day? And I've said this update after update after update. Eventually you have to start looking at some signs that the market is just a little bit tired on one side. And we started talking about years ago that the market will never tap you on the shoulder and say, hey, by the way, we're done going down. You can start buying stocks and everything is all good in the world. You get taller, life looks better, you get more better looking, everything is good in the world. That doesn't work that way. But we do know from the series of bear markets that I've traded, some of the signs. And number one, the biggest sign that sellers are getting tired is number one, the days that the market is going lower, you're starting to shrink in damage. Collateral damage is getting smaller. The volatility starts to shrink a little bit. Bad news starts to discard. And the most important part is that bad news. And for example, yesterday, if you looked at earnings last night, and first and foremost, I apologize, there was no video last night. My daughter had a soccer game and my wife just couldn't make, so I had a driver. So that's why usually I don't do a video on Thursday nights since I did the one yesterday. I'm doing one today. And the most important part was if you looked last night on earnings, you had all the recipes of, again, more failure. So you had in the video last night, the video came out with earnings, they weren't bad. They just weren't bad. Future guidance wasn't crazy. And last night, right, last night, you saw, you know, go down about $10, $12. You had snow, right? Snow last night had, you know, came out with earnings. Again, this is not, you know, this is still a growth story. We've seen a lot of tons of growth story stocks still getting hit. But the most important part was what we saw last night and what we saw from the video and snow this morning was stabilizing pre-market. And they were way off their highs, excuse me, way off their lows. And why is that different? Because if you look at every single earnings call, right, from the retailers to Netflix, to start it off, earning season, everything else in between, when there was any type of violence to the downside, the market would be locked limit down. It felt like locked limit down, right? It felt like the Nasdaq would be down 250, 300 the next day. And we're like, here we go again. But last night was also a little bit more different. Again, we're talking about collecting data. These are the things we wanted to see. Last night, some news came out on Tesla. And Tesla went down 10, 15 bucks very, very quickly. And slowly, but surely as I was sitting there in the soccer game, I started watching Tesla go from down 15 to down nine to down six to down three. And by the time the ECNs closed at eight o'clock last night, Tesla was down 50 cents from the close. The video was like $3, $4 away from the lows. Snow even rallied $4, $5 away from the lows. We'll say, let's see, you know, let's see how much down, right? How much down the Nasdaq is gonna be tomorrow at the open. And when you wake up this morning, the Nasdaq was up, right? And that's the whole point. They started discarding bad news. This wasn't great earnings report. Usually if everything was really, really bad, if this was even a week ago, the video would have taken down all the semiconductors, right? All of them would have been bleeding. They would have been a predominant way in on the Nasdaq 100 and things would have got real very, very quickly just the way they've been for the last five months. Snow, right? If you guys remember, who came out with that bad earnings? Was it TDOC, right? When TDOC came out with earnings, all these cloud stocks, right? Anything to do with cloud software got absolutely murdered that day. That didn't happen as well. And slowly, but surely we started seeing stocks go from small green, a small red, to small green, to bigger green, to bigger green. And then next thing you know, the market went off and running. And the most important part of today's rally was what happens next, right? And again, this is kind of where we all, I don't care if you're trading for a week, if you're trading for 10 years, you're trading for 50 years, okay? This is where you take off your rose colored glasses and turn around and go, okay, good. The Dow has been up five days in a row. The SPX, right? The SPX, let's talk about the spies right now. SPX is now up three days in a row, okay? The Qs that's had their absolute worst time since 2001, they're coming off the bottom. But here's what's great, right? Here's what's great. It's over, right? Now the question is what happens next? And this is kind of where, again, like I said, we take off our rose colored glasses and look at the facts, look at the data going for tomorrow, okay? Number one, fantastic aggressive rally today all across the board. It doesn't make a difference from where, from Tesla, we'll get to the pivots in a second, it's from Tesla to Amazon, to NVIDIA, complete reversal off the lows, traded fantastic, it's literally a half a step away from reclaiming major liberals and going higher. Facebook, everything rallied very, very aggressive, okay? That's the good news. The bad news is what happens next and is there something in the way that could derail this little euphoria? Again, I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer. Today was actually the first time which probably traded on the long side with conviction probably in the last three, four weeks, okay? We've been pretty much sell bias every single day. And the reason why we went long bias today was because of the data that we saw last night. It was the data that we saw from the reversals of the earnings of all these things we kind of talked about. Again, remember, bad news gets engulfed, every single stock started trading together, right? There wasn't a disconnect, some stocks are strong, some stocks are weak, everything started to rise and the most important part was it was coming off a bottom and that was the key. So here's kind of a little bit of a history lesson where we try to always play devil's advocate, right? In a perfect world tomorrow, we follow through, we start building, we get above this, we got above this 302 level on the cues and then we have $18 of airspace, right? That's the perfect world. Let's now play devil's advocate so nobody is caught tomorrow with their blinders on in case this happens, okay? Let's do a quick history lesson. Here's the first time we hit the 20 day moving average, right? Excuse me, actually right here, right? Here's the first time we hit the 20 day moving average. What happens next? We went lower. Here's the second time we hit the 20 day moving average. What happens next? We went lower. Here's another time we hit the 20 day moving average. What happens next? We went lower. Here's the last time. This is the Fed. You guys remember that? Here's the last time. Here's the Fed. We went up 1,000 points that day on the Dow, like 500 points on the Nasdaq. What happens next? We hit the 20 day moving average. We had a week and a half, two weeks straight selling. Today, we got right to the 20 day moving average at 301. Why was 301 important? Because 301 was right over here. Sorry about that. My phone was on. It was right over here supply, okay? So we need tomorrow, okay? We absolutely have to. It's not a subjective, well, maybe we could do it next week. Tomorrow, we have to reclaim 302 on the close. Everybody see why? The top of the channel here is 302.25. The top of supply here on the 20 day moving average is 302.25. We need to build. We need to break 302.25 and start building on today's momentum. Because if not, we have plenty of data that started all the way back in April that every single time we hit the 20 day moving average, we reverse going lower. So the last thing we wanna do tomorrow is the market gaps up. It gets stopped at 302 and change and starts taking out opening range lows because data history has shown us what happens next, right? That's the devil's advocate. That's the grown adult part of being a trader. We all want a beautiful, you know what you guys, you know what damage we could do on the long side if we get a close above 302? Of course we all want it, right? This $18 of airspace in the queue. So everybody's pulling for it, right? We're not bears, we're not bulls, we're opportunists, we're high probability data takers building off that data and trading off that probability. So everybody's rooting for this, including myself. I've been sell-bys and it actually, I hate to say it, it felt really, really good, kind of weird, but really, really good to be long stocks today. So I think this 302 area everybody's cheering for if you say a little prayer tonight. Yes, we want to close tomorrow above the 302. Here's the other side of the equation. History has shown us, again, we're still in a bear market until we reclaim the 50-day moving average, but we're just trying to take advantage of this window of opportunity on the long side. If this window was only a couple of days and now tomorrow we're going to get rejected, so be it next Tuesday when we come back from Memorial Day, we'll be back to sell-bys. But I believe that all of us felt a little bit different today. We felt a little bit peppered in our step. It felt a little bit better kind of buying stocks and now we just need this close above 302. If you look at the SPY, here's a little bit of a better story, right? The SPY got above the 20-day moving average state. That's a good thing. So that's what's given me a little bit of a better confidence that we could get through that threshold on the cues because I'm assuming the spies, if they get a follow-through, they're going to pull up the cues instead of the cues pulling down the spies, but anything is possible. So if you look at where the spies close, and let's talk about it from the SPX point of view, the SPX closed above 30, what is it, above 40, my vision sucks, above 4050, right? Everybody see that? We closed above 4050. If we can get above 4100 tomorrow on the SPX, then we have room all the way up to 4200. So again, tomorrow is going to be super-duper important. If you look at these two levels, what is going to stop this? Here's the little chink in the armor. It's very, very possible, and it's not a bad thing, but it's very, very possible we have a res date tomorrow. Why? Because we just put up a 3% candle today, nearly 3% candle today on the NASDAQ, right? So it would be in a weird way, very, very helpful that we put it in inside day, not gap up and get rejected and lose eight points on the cues, just kind of sit there, maybe down a little bit, up a little bit, but kind of sit there. The problem with tomorrow's session is, it is a day before a long three-day weekend. I'm very, very shocked, very, very surprised that the volume today was pretty good. And somebody said, wasn't today low volume? No, the reason why you say that, if you look at every single chart, again, we'll get to individual pivots in a second. If you look at Tesla, for example, Tesla did not retest the rising support until the fifth candle of the day. That's five hours of seamless buying all day. And that's pretty much in line with a lot of the stocks as well, like Amazon, like Nvidia as well. So there was a really good solid push. Remember, when you have light volume, you're gonna get a thrust and you're gonna come back in. You're gonna get another thrust, you're gonna come back in. This was steady buying all the way for the first five hours of the day. So the volume was good. Since tomorrow, a lot of people will be going away, whatever your destination is, we could have a little bit of a slower day, but if everything plays out and this market is so wild, is so completely unpredictable, maybe we could get above this channels, right? Maybe we could get above supply, reclaim the 302 area. So when we come back for Tuesday, because Monday we're off, we have a really strong buy bias falling into our lap. So fingers crossed, guys. So remember, we need 302 tomorrow. We need to reclaim 302 on the queues and we need to close above 302 on the queues because if we get rejected at 302 on the queues, wha, wha, wha, that's just the reality. So let's talk about today's pivots and I have to go to, my daughter has a softball game, so I'll be cutting out here very, very quickly. I didn't wanna put a lot of pivots on today. If you notice, I put some longs, I put some shorts, right? Because we just didn't know what to expect for today, but at least for the first time today we were actually putting on long pivots and that was the most important thing and I've always maintained this. It's not how many you trade. It's how many you trade properly and there's nothing better. There's no two stocks better than Amazon and Tesla when they start expansion. So let's talk about this. Amazon 2177 needs to build. Amazon went absolutely bananas, right? Absolutely bananas. Here's the 77, this whole, you see this whole channel here? It took out this whole channel here, 2177. I said it was a shot at 2250s and the high of the day today was 2253. Phenomenal move on Amazon, when nuts. Tesla, again, proved to me there's a better stock out there. Just proved to me there's a better trading stock out there both long and short and I'll be more than happy to listen. So Tesla, if it opens under 670, we got very lucky because Tesla was trading above 670 the whole pre-market. If it opens below 670, then it's second entry. If it opens above then needs to confirm 680. Tesla opened below 670 and look, I've really lost for words how great the stock is. So it took out 670, right? Check this out. So it took out this whole channel 670. It took out this candle here at 680. And I said there's a shot today at 720. This thing went to 719 and closed right above the 10-day moving average. So make a long story short. If Tesla could get above this whole channel tomorrow, there's a shot, man. There is an absolute shot. This thing could get to 767.70 if the market gives an act to tomorrow. Again, big if, but again, it's definitely, definitely on the table. So huge move there. Obviously I put some shorts on it, put some short privets on as well that never confirmed. I was watching net to the downside, never confirmed. Apple to the downside, square to the downside, coin to the downside. Obviously they never all confirmed. But hey, well listen, we were trying to be responsible for both sides. 160 on the video, obviously never confirmed. Hey guys, I like this little BKSY. I had this massive volume. Keep an eye on this thing for tomorrow. Keep an eye. I had traded like 180 million shares yesterday, rested today, could wake up again tomorrow. So Amazon here it comes, 222 next supply. Traded perfectly, perfectly. Here's a running inside joke that we have. Absolute phenomenal moves. Tesla, Amazon, just go hoping everything is going absolutely nuts. And that's all you needed. That really is all you needed. When these things started humming, they started humming really, really aggressively. And I always say this, when you get a reversal in the market or a shift in sentiment, as much as all these other stocks are cool, right? These Rivians of the world and Looses of the world. Yeah, they'll give you a dollar, they'll give you 70 cents. When you get this kind of a window and you get this exaggerated buying, you wanna be in the ones that could give you 30, 40, 60, 80 points like a Tesla, Amazon, Google, stuff like that. So guys, God bless, have a great Memorial Day weekend. For all you guys who are trading, I'll see you tomorrow in the webinar. If not, have an awesome weekend and I'll see you guys on the weekend video. Take care, have a great night.