 Okay, very good morning. It's Anthony Chunk here from Amplified Trading. It is Tuesday the 16th of June. Don't forget to like and subscribe to the YouTube channel. Everything that you need to learn about trading and also financial markets. So daily macro briefings for me, tech core analysis videos from my colleague Sam and kind of markets explained on key topics from Eddie. So videos coming out every day of the week. So don't forget to subscribe to the channel. A quick look then at markets this morning and Yeah, what a difference a day makes to quote a famous phrase and Yeah, equities having a really powerful recovery after what looked like a fairly nervy start to the week on a pick up in the coronavirus cases that we were seeing globally particularly in key geographic regions like several North American states and also in mainland China being overwhelmed if you like by the wave of Fiscal and monetary stimulus that keeps getting thrown at the market from this time the Fed and also the US Administration would talk of another trillion dollar stimulus package from Trump. So they're the main things I'm going to talk about and going to give you a bit more detail about what exactly happened yesterday and Yeah, go into somebody's these stories in more detail. Interestingly I saw a funny tweet this morning and it was saying the only winners in the market Last night were the Federal Reserve and the Robin Hood traders who of course have this idea of Not caring a great deal about the underlying intrinsic value of assets more So they just keep buying on the notion that you know this this the stock market can't go down They weren't wrong yesterday. And so just having a quick look across these asset classes here You can see the S&P 2500, you know just an awesome recovery yesterday after you know, we broke down through some key areas in yesterday's trade We had that test of the blip that we saw before the kind of ramp into the close on Friday The reopening of trade on Sunday night on Globeck saw a test and bounce off that level And then we just broke down in the European session all the way down to the respective kind of S2 actual level there before the bounce came in but it's really since the open on Wall Street We continue to move higher as Europe exited the market We just continue to push on and there were a couple of catalysts along the way here With a new announcement of some more details and the latest one of the latest facilities announced by the Federal Reserve Which we'll have a look at The DAX then this morning playing a bit of catch-up. So bit of a gap higher in the DAX As you can see here in the chart Just broadening this out slightly here so a gap up from the close that we had last night and Finding a bit of support then that initial low that was seen at the reopening of trade In the overnight session in the futures market for the DAX just coinciding with that high that we had in the European morning On Friday just providing a bit of a floor now for price activity And that's quite a key level you can see here going back to the early part of June as well And also to support level and respective resistance on the 11th Quite a key area now support on the downside if we were to move back down at any point today in the DAX And of course if we did then looking for that gap filled down towards those highs that were seen in around 12,100 there in the DAX on the upside Keeping an eye here. We've had an overnight challenge on a couple of occasions up around this 12 329 which also brings into play that low that we saw. This was actually the the day of the ECB that was when we saw that volatility initial pop decline and then kind of stabilization to trade pretty much neutral from where we were and So yeah, it's some some interesting upside levels and downside levels here in terms of a range perspective now Just just to see where we go from today. I don't really have too much of an outright view here Where they're going to rally or fall just given the nature of what's been happening with these Kind of focus on the risk, but then these the central banks and the governments come out and pledge more More kind of stimulus. It's hard to really call the market right now all I'd say is I guess following logic then that we continue to track With great interest and vigilance the ongoing Developments of some of the coronavirus numbers coming out of various states in America those sensitive ones like California, Texas, Florida, and so on north and south Carolina also developments in China But yeah as far as The stimulus announcements go you would say that for the time being as far as the intro day is concerned perhaps We've heard everything so far. I there's not much more now to be announced if that makes sense So whether or not this equity bid can be sustained. I'd say if I was going to pick a side I'd rather be more biased to potentially know and that now the kind of the the general forces at play have kind of shot their bullets the Fed have come out Trump has come out the markets moved accordingly. So that's kind of priced in to some extent So a little bit of a drift off perhaps the there's just a strength of the rally yesterday and to find a bit of consolidation could well be the order of the day and then I guess I mean the the mindset now of not really looking to force and view too much a little bit more just letting the charts dictate the type of Strategies to deploy at this point and then just finding some some solid technical Set-ups to play out that view. So yeah, just looking elsewhere gold here in the top right Has been a bit of an odd one actually hasn't really been responding too much from a risk perspective But you can see here the pivot level in the near term. It's just trading close proximity to that at the moment Perhaps a significant near-term level here. You can see in yesterday's session. It was a respected level both in the early and late European session was also back on Friday and Thursday of last week as well So, yeah If that that gold move a little bit hard to get the cue off equities at the moment because it has been if anything Tracking rather than being an inverse relationship According to a risk sentiment So again, I'd be more inclined to look at that from a more technical Basis that we know how quickly gold can move through key levels and see a bit of momentum go through The order books I'd be kind of looking at that that way in the effects markets the Dixie Gap down upon the rally and renews risk appetite last night. So it is recovering a little bit for quite depressed levels So naturally then major pairs Rallyed yesterday, but a bit of consolidating at the moment So again, it really the effects markets have been quite a good indication at the moment of risk I think yesterday I was working with a couple of guys and This was around a time at the open and we were kind of looking at the S&P NASDAQ We're looking to break higher and actually it was the Euro kind of breakthrough quite a key upside level That then the currency market started moving and that was almost the the first domino to fall that then actors a trigger for those US equities to take out some upside levels given the fairly tight correlation at the moment of the dollar being a Reflection of just general risk appetite. I risk on dollar weakness risk off dollar strengthen in that respect but let's have a look at some of the stories that have been coming out because there are plenty to talk about and Gonna kick off with the first one which is Here so the Fed will begin buying broad portfolio of corporate bonds I actually had a couple of alerts go for my phone a couple of the guys were Asking questions about this last night And so here's the kind of the more detail to be aware of so the Federal Reserve Planned to buy individual bombs under its what's called the secondary market corporate credit facility bit of a mouthful But that's the SMCCF Underscoring then its role of continuing to be somewhat of a backstop for markets So the SMCCF is one of nine Emergency lending programs that were announced in March So the fact that they they've announced what they did last night is not a surprise in terms of the actual program What is a surprise? There's some of the details about what exactly and how they're going to purchase Which a lot of people are looking at so it has Couple of things to be aware of capacity of two hundred and fifty billion dollars So far. Well, that's the capacity so far It's only invested about five and a half billion and ETFs to purchase corporate bonds. So, you know, it's a mammoth program And hence the reason why, you know markets look at these types of facilities in such a bullish kind of fashion Given the scale is quite unprecedented The Fed announced that it would purchase corporate bonds to create a portfolio that reflects a broad diversified market index of US corporate block bonds rather than just buying exchange traded funds that track credit So that last point there is the is the really important one So it's this idea that they're going to be purchasing a corporate bonds to create a portfolio rather than the kind of a fixed tracker That the market took as a cue as being a little bit Beyond what that they were expecting. So this was kind of the first thing that happened last night. We also had Yesterday the Fed separately announcing it had now opened its Main Street lending program so the MSLP for small and medium-sized businesses and The other thing well two things then that we had on the back of this as you can imagine US corporate bonds are rallying on the back of the Fed announcement So when this came out, you can see the Fed saying you'll begin buying corporate bonds on Tuesday This is looking at one of the respective Indexes that you can monitor to track this type of specific movement tied to US corporate bonds And then the other thing that happened was Trump came out And the Trump team weighing a one trillion dollars for infrastructure to spur the economy So an existing US infrastructure funding law is coming up for basically renewal at the end of September And the administration sees that as a possible vehicle to push through a broader package According to people familiar with the matter the Democrats they unveiled their own 500 billion proposal this month as well So again, it's kind of whatever it takes and you know from a a campaign a Political campaign year it is not that Untoward to see this type of activity and you would pretty much very much expect Trump to be throwing everything at trying to Stimulate the economy through infrastructure That being then to offset the magnitude of the economic downturn that we've experienced in the pandemic and to get the economy Back on track doesn't matter how depressed some of the economic figures are as long as they're moving north He's got a good narrative there that he can say that you know He's helping assist a solid recovery and that's where they're heading as per some of the tweets He's been saying more recently. So, you know, these two forces Have been the underlying reason of why markets have Recovered like they have particularly in US equities. The other thing we've had overnight the Bank of Japan Just another reason for the short-term optimism They are upsizing a corporate lending support program. They kept everything else unchanged as expected So the central banks virus response package is now is estimated to be one trillion dollars worth in size The bank still has scope to use existing measures more for the economy as well as what they were suggesting So not really that surprising in terms of what the POG did but again The fact they increased the size of the lending support again kind of in fitting with the other facilities and mechanisms that the US have put in place and You know all the more support now that they're they're implementing Moving elsewhere. We had the One-hour kind of teleconference call between Johnson and the UK in European negotiators over brexit And a couple of things to be aware of So the UK and European Union look on course to reach a deal over their future relationship with the bloc's top officials confident Johnson is willing to compromise and the Prime Minister said the prospects for an accord are very good formal discussions will resume on the 29th of June in a more concentrated format than the previous three Week kind of format British government which has ruled out extending the December deadline for negotiations from privately Officials from Brussels and London say they are focusing on reaching an accord between mid-august and the summit of EU leaders scheduled for mid-october One thing I did share with the guys I emailed out on the distribution list this morning was this This was looking at a nice matrix of different Scenarios being the highest one the most to the bottom one the least likely This was constructed by the guys at ing economics And I tweeted this yesterday as well. My handle is there so feel free to grab the graphic from there But I do like these matrix That they put together which basically Break down what it is exactly that's expected But interestingly it gives us a market impact in this case for euro sterling in the cross and the 10-year gilp over the period of the coming quarters So ing's base case and I have read increasing amount of banks looking at this now actually Not expecting a transition Extension so despite some of the things that I have been saying over recent months about the idea that the pandemic gives a good excuse to kind of get a delay In order to have a more safer and sound economically Transition period into delivering brexit. Most of these banks now think that actually the UK government will not do that And that actually they will kind of put together a piecemeal kind of very basic trade deal And that would be enough then for politically them to kind of move forward particularly for the UK to say that they've Delivered brexit now, obviously this is going to have some Initial disruption to supply chains at the start of 2021 When we start to actually start formally leaving the single market But it kind of is almost like the lightest touch deal where a lot of stuff remains the same But it gives then the politicians enough political say to Go back to the public and say they've committed on the promise and what the government's mandate was which was to deliver brexit And then they can sort out all the other details over the foreseeable future So that's what quite a few people are looking at at the moment And as per as I've just said in some of these articles this morning they're kind of talking about a timeline now Of looking to get something done By mid-august and a summit of EU leaders scheduled for mid-october And actually if I just quickly jump to my twitter account Again, if you if you need it here's a kind of full timeline of the key dates to be aware of so that that looming Deadline, of course, and as UK UK weekly talks, they're going to happen At the end of june, which is then the first of july the deadline for the transition extension Which at this point as I said most banks now are suggesting that that's not going to be the case that the UK will formally ask Or request for that Then we have the august period and that then leads up into this mid-october EU council meeting Which is where they're looking to get the deal Done and so here it would be end of october UK EU deal to allow for ratification And then basically we go through the council meeting in december the transition period ends and then the new relationship begins as per the Predetermined timetable as it exists today, which is the first of january 21 Yeah, good research report from from ing on this going into more details about various different scenarios Their base case and then what need to happen for the other ones to materialize and how the markets might react So again, if you just jump on my twitter account You can get that full timetable and also the link to the article with that ing graphic as well for those that need it Okay, looking at the calendar for today. What have we got? Well, we've already had some economic data come out So let me just get you up to speed The UK unemployment rate for april was actually 3.9 percent. So there's actually lower than expected average hourly earnings They were a touch lower Claiming count change was higher than expected overall Sterling not phased by that economic data. You've had german cpi come in in line with expectations. So A negative reading on the month to month at minus 0.1 and plus 0.6 in the year a year But again, these were in line with expectations. I'll be a minutes overnight Nothing particularly exciting and not really much in the way of a reaction in the Aussie So no real need for me to go into that in greater detail But having a look at what else is there You've got the iea monthly all market report that'll be at 9 a.m. London time Always worth keeping a bit of an eye on just to see the adherence to just general compliance with the Predefined OPEC plus agreement and then also the outlook as it evolves about demand going forward oil As you've already seen on the charts this morning bouncing in step with equities Given the fact that you know, generally the short term influences fundamentally for oil have been very much so pinned on How the virus Is going to impact the global economy and as such consequently demand And at this point as we've said, you know, if infrastructure spending in the u.s. It's going to be on mass supplemented by a variety of different Mechanisms from the Fed to support the economy or then that alleviates some of that tension And so oils come back up to the top of this recent range trading on the 37 handle Um elsewhere this morning zew economic sentiment. I'm looking for further improvement there So again, this is the economist and analysts kind of current and forward-looking expectations in in germany So I don't think that's going to be too much of a surprise because obviously economies are generally reopening and numbers have been Relatively controlled. So we should be coming off the most depressed levels here And a lot of these economic indicators and that's pretty much the same conclusion for us retail sales today That's kind of your main headline reading at 130 Looking for a bounce back month to month to 8 percent from a previous obviously record breaking negative 16.4 percent But again, this is a may report So it will encompass the fact that many of the u.s. States were reopening during this period. So it's going to be a much more Solid figure than what we had in the complete shutdown of april Hence the reason why that prior was so bad Otherwise you've got u.s. Industrial production cap utilization coming out this afternoon The na hb housing market index and then the api is coming out after market speaker wise today is the first of the Powell testimony So he'll testify before the senate banking committee before he heads to the house tomorrow So today is always the more important one because he generally just repeats His speech to the house How important is today's speech? personally, I think it is Not very important and the basis of my reasoning being that the federal reserve meeting was only just a few days ago And not only was it a federal reserve statement and press conference They also released their latest summary of economic projections So as far as the clarity goes in fed communication, they've already outlined that very recently So I don't see any need for power to come out and really shake things up here So he's probably going to be as it usually is when a central banker meets politicians much more of kind of Approding the finger and pointing and why haven't you done this and why did you do that? And how do you see this working and these sorts of questions? And I'm sure they'll try and draw him in given the disparity in the fiscal response between the republicans and the democrats currently being experienced on Capitol hill, but he will be reluctant to really comment on anything of that nature So keep an eye out for that Three o'clock feds. Clarida also a voting member, but that's not until later on 9 p.m. London So 3 p.m. Chicago into the close on wall street Fixed income wise some uk supply But that's about it The other thing as well the final thing I was meant to wrap in when I was talking about all the positives that helped yesterday Was obviously yesterday. We also had the other big Tail risk for markets was the u.s. China ongoing trade dialogue and mike Pompeo The secretary of state said he planned to meet chinese officials in hawaii earlier this week two u.s. Officials said And one western diplomat told cnn on sunday. So again, that's another thing that can Probably underpin some of the the general positivity from yesterday. I guess the point I want to make today is I think a lot of that now is reflected on the on the screens And so I wouldn't just come in today and just start hitting it going long Not unless the market perhaps comes down a little bit and you get the strategic nice point to get in from an entry perspective And what I mean by that is you know, let's just take a simple Example here in the s and p if the s and p were to come back down to You know this kind of area here, which has been a pretty decent level on prior occasions So if we come back down to 30 75 and a quarter well, then perhaps it starts to become quite interesting And do we for the time being until we get the next the next kind of catalyst? See perhaps a little bit of consolidation in in that type of nature All right, that is it any questions feel free to leave a comment on the video happy to help as always And don't forget to like and subscribe to the youtube channel. All right guys take care and have a good day Thanks very much