 So, good evening ladies and gentlemen. Thank you Manoj for accepting my invitation. I'm delighted. This year I think as a departure we have a very different chief guest and you will hear him shortly and I think this is probably a reflection of the times that the investor now is beginning to play a very important role in everyone's lives. So, ladies and gentlemen, I stand before you for the 14th year in succession to present to you the analysis that Madison's team of media professionals has done and put and give you our findings. I must add my own words of welcome and thank you once again for coming to this event year after year and motivating us. It's your presence that motivates us to continue to put in the hard work year after year and also put together a bunch of enlightened speakers who are thought leaders of our industry so that we can all go back a little more enlightened than when we came. So, although I'm smiling, I'm afraid there is not much to smile about for the traditional media industry as indeed there has been little to smile for many industries, particularly adexes, largest contributors, FMCG and Auto. What a year 2019 has been when media found itself battling serious headwinds. As Naval recalled, it started with the largest medium television battling the NTO order and got further bruised by the willful collapse of the popular FTA channels and ended with a dull festive season on account of the economy slowing down in quarter three and quarter four. The only blip we saw was surprisingly in the second quarter because of IPL, World Cup and the Lok Sabha elections. As we see it, the year can be neatly divided into two halves, H1 and H2 and the two halves behaved very differently. H1 grew very well and higher than our forecast at 20% on the back of the three events I spoke about, but H2 collapsed with a growth of just 3% over H218. In fact, H219 de-grew by as much as 7% compared to H119 whereas in all previous years so far, H2 has been the larger contributor to the year. This report now recognizes an important split amongst various media and that is traditional media versus digital media. Whilst we estimate that in 2019, ad-ex grew at 11% versus our midterm projection of 13.4% and last year's growth of 15%, this figure of 11% according to me hides more than it reveals. During the whole year, digital media grew at a whopping 32% but traditional grew only by 6%. Traditional media when viewed through the lens of the two halves presents also a dismal picture. While H1 grew very well at 18%, H2 de-grew by 5% and it de-grew as much as 15% versus H1 2019. A quarter-wise analysis shows that in 2019, growth in total ad-ex and at traditional ad-ex came mainly in the second quarter and quarter two unlike in all earlier years was the largest quarter contributing 29% to the year's ad-ex. When you combine traditional and digital, it is because of digital's high growth of 32% that we end 2019 with an overall ad-ex growth of 11% which compares actually quite well with 2018's ad-ex growth of 14.6%. In absolute terms ad-ex has grown from 60,908 crores to 67,603 crores and increase of 6,695 crores which you could argue is not so bad considering it's the second highest addition to ad-ex in a single year in recent times though 11% is growth rate is the second lowest growth rate in 7 years. It is significant to note that 56% or more of this growth came from digital. Global ad-ex and when we speak about global ad-ex it's mainly the 12 large markets is now estimated at 498 billion US dollars with India at 9.7 billion. Interestingly, India grew by more than twice the average global growth rate of 5.4%. However, we lost our pole position of being the fastest growing advertising market in 2019 to Russia and slid to second position. If some of you will recall, Russia a few years ago was also at the pole position. I must mention China because it's always in the news for either the right or the wrong reasons. China's ad-ex growth rate dropped from 12.5% in 2018 to 10.4% and it comes third rank in terms of growth in 2018. Major markets contributing to ad-ex are US, China, Japan and UK and these four contribute almost three quarters of the total. China has been for some years now the second largest advertising market. India maintained its rank at number 12 though its share moved up from 1.8 to 1.9%. Coming back to Indian ad-ex, despite taking many knocks during the year, television continues to be the largest contributor to ad-ex with a 37% share and it grew by 8% the third lowest growth rate in a decade. Print follows with a 30% share of ad-ex but with a low growth rate of just 3%. In fact 2019 is the fifth consecutive year that print has grown the least of all mediums. Digital that grew by 32% last year now contributes a whopping 23% to Indian ad-ex. I may mention though that globally digital has crossed the 50% mark. Radio and outdoor too have grown at a slow pace but more or less maintain their share of ad-ex. Cinema in 2019 grew significantly by almost 30% on a very small base of course and continues to be the least contributor to ad-ex with a share of just 1.6%. You will see from this digital growth rate share trend line that it has grown its share significantly almost every year to reach 23% today and most of the share growth has come from television and print who in 2019 lost 1% and 2% share points respectively. Cinema has moved up significantly by low base, radio and OH are steady. Digital as you can imagine is galloping and eating into traditional media as this chart clearly demonstrates. In terms of categories the top 5 categories of ad-ex continue to be FMCG, auto, telecom, education, education and e-commerce. It's refreshing to see that auto in spite of the sales set back it has witnessed in 2019 has not lost confidence in advertising and continues to be the second largest contributor to ad-ex at 10% though its share has moved down by 1%. E-commerce share growth continues unabated and it now contributes 5% to traditional ad-ex having replaced household durables. I must highlight that for this category contribution analysis of figures are restricted to TV, print and radio but OH and cinema with an overall share of 6 or 7% is unlikely to change either the pecking order or growth rates. Whilst growth on traditional media in 2019 has been low at 6% the categories that contribute to this growth are FMCG, e-commerce, telecom including handsets, education, and real estate. E-commerce which last year contributed only 5% to growth has now moved up to 14%. A 10 year review shows that during this period ad-ex moved up from 25,000 crores to 68,000 crores growing at an annual compounded rate of 12% which may be considered not so good for a developing economy that wants to hit the $5 trillion mark in the next few years. The average growth rate of 12% perhaps has come down because of two poor years 2012 where growth was 5.2% on the back of global slowdown and 2017 when growth was 7.2% on the back of global slowdown and 2017 when growth was 7.4% because of demodernization and GST. In the last 12 years a significant change in the shares of various media can be clearly witnessed while television continues to be the largest contributor to ad-ex with a 37% share, print has lost a significant 17% share points, digital is established at the third largest medium with a share of 23%. Let's take a look at who are the top advertisers in 2019. While advertising is generally considered to be a big boys game and no new advertiser can penetrate the top 10 list, this year we have a surprise in our top 10 list, top 5 list in fact. The new kid on the block is a digital game Dream 11, a cricket based game signaling that gaming could soon emerge as the major category in ad-ex in the coming years. Three of the top 10 advertisers are from the FMCG sector, others are from diverse categories like telecom, auto e-commerce and consumer durables. HUL continues to lead the pack which spends of about 3,500 crores followed by Amazon, Dream 11, Reliance and Baruti. Top 50 advertisers account for 33% of ad-ex. Top 10 advertisers account for as much as 14% of ad-ex and contribute to 43% of the top 50 list. All these figures were marginally higher last year indicating that the big are not getting bigger but many more are emerging at the lower end. Though by the time you reach rank 50, you are down from a spend of 3,500 crores to 100 crores. No wonder large advertisers are coveted. Top 50 advertisers now spend 78 crores of their budgets on television plus digital combined. This number is significant when we compare the total ad-ex figures where combined spends is much lower at 60%. Interestingly, if we consider TV and digital separately, then the top 50 advertisers spend 62% on TV and only 16% on digital versus the ad-ex share of 37% on TV and 23% on digital indicating that large advertisers are over-indexed on TV and under-indexed on digital. In the next five lists, Oppo Mobile and Vinny, makers of fog, make a debut, make a debut with Vinny moving all the way up to rank 10 from rank 37. In addition to Dream 11 and Oppo, we now have six new players in our list, Baiju's, BJP, MRF, Swiggy, Havels and Kia Motors. Among the top 50 advertisers, there are a large number of shifts in the pecking order reflecting the year that it was with only three players maintaining rank. 24 players dropped rank and 15 gained rank. Among those who moved up many ranks are Apple, Asian Pains, Coke and Amul. Those who lost rank are Vodafone, Flipkart, Honda Motors, Rekhet and Benkeesha or RB as they are now called and there are as many as eight new entrants to this elite list. Let us now go on to our forecast for 2020. A forecast for 2020 for ad-ex is muted. In arriving at this projected growth figure for the whole year, we are guided by the expectation that the economy should bounce back only in the second half of 2020 as also indicated in the government's own economic survey published on January 31st of this year. We see the slow down tapering as we get into quarter two and ad-ex bouncing back only in time for the festive season. Therefore, we see a subdued H1 for ad-ex but a buoyant H2 especially quarter four. We expect ad-ex to grow by 10.4 percent taking ad-ex close to 75,000 crores and increase of more than 77,000 crores of which 62 percent will be contributed by digital. At this growth rate, Indian ad-ex would have added more than 21,500 crores by end of 2020 in just a short span of three years. When viewed through the lens of traditional media and digital media, we see widely varying growth rates with digital continuing to bloat with a 28.4 percent growth but our expectation for growth for traditional media is subdued at 5.1 percent combined it ends up with a 10.4 percent forecast. Now why 10.4 percent? We expect traditional media to gain from IPL, ICC T20, World Cup, some state elections, mobile wallets, e-commerce and OTT. Digital has achieved scale with velocity and this should see it grow further and therefore maintain its growth rate record. We also expect digital to gain from the aggression of e-commerce dot com and OTT players and because of a greater realization in the largest ad-ex sector FMCG which is under indexed on digital that digital plus TV combo works best in today's AV focused environment. We also expect a wide variation of growth rates across mediums ranging from a low of 2 percent for press, 5 percent for radio, 6 percent for outdoor and 7 percent for TV to 20 percent for cinema and 28 percent for digital. This slide shows you the likely market share each medium will reach by the time we exit 2020. This chart looks very different from what it was even a few years ago. Notice that digital which only a few years ago was relatively small now will have a market share of 26.6 percent virtually the same as print at 27 0.4 percent. Print as recently as 2008 was virtually half the ad-ex at 46.7 percent but has come down in the last 12 years to just a little more than a quarter and may now even move to rank 3 from rank 1 which it maintained from inception to 2008. Our expectation is that TV will continue to be the largest medium with a 36 percent share of ad-ex though with a subdued growth rate of 6.8 percent. Let's look at television a little more closely after a rocking 2018 when TV ad-ex grew by 19 percent it grew by only 8 percent last year lower than a midterm projection of 11 percent reaching a total of about 25,000 crores. This is less than half the growth rate achieved in 2018. In terms of absolute numbers TV ad-ex has added 1860 crores ad-ex is largest contributor with a 37 percent share demonstrated that it can be vulnerable because it lost 1 percent its share point that it had gained in 2018 to close its share at 37 percent. At the time of finalizing this forecast the Supreme Court verdict on the NTO order is awaited. If the NTO 2.0 comes into effect in our view was broadcast a subscription revenue will be hit it is likely that viewership or long tail channels will go up and consequently so will TV spends on them. Leaving that uncertainty uncertainty aside and keeping in mind that the economy is likely to perk up in age 2 we project a modest 6.8 percent growth for television this year. An analysis of FCT or time being by various genres shows that English movies English niche music infotainment Tamil have all de-grown during the year whereas Malayalam, Kannada, kids and sports genres have all gained. The largest contributor Hindi GEC which contributes substantially to revenue was almost flat in terms of FCT. Hindi movies shows an increase by 9 percent having attracted some of the FCT that in the previous year went to FTA channels which large networks abandoned in the beginning of the year. We venture to estimate that in terms of revenue sports genre has grown the highest by as much as 47 percent and Hindi GEC by about 7 percent which leads us to conclude that despite a soft market these two genres have been able to command a rate increase. It is significant to note that time spent on TV moved up gradually in this digital world that we live in from 3 hours and 22 minutes to in 2016 to 3 hours and 52 minutes in 2018 but in 2019 it marginally declined something that should give TV content creators and managers something to think about. FMCG continues to rule the roost in TV ad-hocs contributing 49 percent although its contribution also came down by 1 percentage point. Telecom and auto follow with 12 percent and 7 percent e-commerce gained dramatically during the year by as much as 20 percent and has reached 1320 crores. The main categories that are fuel growth of 1860 crore in 2019 is FMCG at 740 crores, telecom at 275 crores mainly handsets and e-commerce at 220 crores. Predictably contribution of auto to the overall growth is negative at minus 4 percent. There is a marginal decline in FCT telecast in 2019 unlike most previous years when FCT has gone up year on year perhaps because of the disappearance of FTA channels. Length of average duration of a commercial has remained steady at about 23 seconds now for a decade. Taking a closer look at print in our estimate print grew by 3 percent in 2019 lower than our previous year midterm projection of 5 percent. While some may consider 3 percent to be a low growth figure viewed against the global backdrop where print is de-growing in most western countries a 3 percent growth could be considered heartening. Print has added 588 crores to ad-hocs during 2019. Whilst this is the third consecutive year print has grown less than 5 percent it continues to be the second highest contributor after TV with a share of 30 percent. Given that the slow down is expected to continue through H1 we expect print advertising market to grow during the whole year by 2 percent which should take print ad-hocs to 20,446 crores. At this growth rate print share of ad-hocs is likely to fall to 27 percent. Predictably in terms of volume there is a 3 percent decline in 2019 but the average size of the ad has remained the same at 56 column centimeters. Hindi publications continue to be ahead of English publications contributing 35 percent of the total volume. English publications come behind at 25 percent. There was a time not so long ago when English publications dominate print ad-hocs because of their high rates. Leading dailies like Times of India, Hindustan Times, Dainik Bhaskar, Dainik Jagran and Rajasthan Patrika all have seen a drop in terms of column centimeter consumption. Such de-growth has not been witnessed in the last many years. Again FMCG, auto education, real estate and retail continue to be the main cash cows and contribute 50 percent to ad-hocs. E-commerce is fast emerging as an important category for print and grew by 14 percent. Political parties are estimated to have contributed 200 crores during the general Lok Sabha elections to print ad-hocs. Nearly 65 percent of print's growth of 588 crores is accounted for by four categories education, e-commerce, real estate and retail. Print continues to draw its strength from a large diversified category portfolio and as many as almost 200,000 advertisers and it takes as many as 12 categories contribute more than 70 percent to print, whilst it takes only four categories to contribute the same number to TV ad-hocs, which has only 12,000 advertisers. Taking a closer look at digital, digital ad-hocs made impressive gains during the year and achieved a growth of 32.1 percent, the highest growth achieved by any medium taking the digital ad-hocs to now almost over 15,000 crores. You could argue that this growth belies the fact that India is in the midst of a slowdown. We expect digital to continue its growth path, though the projected growth rate is a little lower at 28 percent. In absolute terms, digital would have added almost four and a half thousand crores substantially higher than 3,700 crores that it added in 2019. This will take digital ad-hocs to almost 20,000 crores similar to print's 20,446 crores that we are projecting. With a bit of luck, digital may overthrow print to occupy second place in Indian ad-hocs in 2020, though the itself. Digital has grown at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30 percent over last five years. It was only 6 percent a decade ago. Its share of the pie is expected to grow to 27 percent by end of this year. Looking at digital ad-hocs by various verticals, we find that it is more or less equally divided between four major segments, search, social, video and display, with each contributing between 20 and 30 percent to the total. Consumption of video in digital is going up year on year and in 2019 video spends grew by as much as 59 percent. The video vertical is now the highest contributor to digital ad-hocs at 30 percent and almost all of digital, 94 percent is on mobile. 52 percent of digital ad-hocs came from what one may call classical advertising that is display banners and online video. Interestingly, if we were to combine TV plus online video, because that is how the consumer views it, TV growth of a mere 8 percent would increase to 14 percent. If we were to do the same thing and combine print and digital display, prints 3 percent growth would increase only to 4 percent. Implication is clear. Consumers and advertisers seem to prefer the audio visual medium. No wonder Madison's TV plus tool is gaining traction. Will our TV barons who also own successful OTT platforms move to a combined offering of TV and digital with or without third party measurement this year? Taking a closer look at outdoor, outdoor too got impacted by the economic slow down and has grown by 4 percent in 2019. Transit media by 3 percent and conventional outdoor by 4 percent. In terms of absolute numbers, OH is now a three and a half thousand crore market and contributes 5 percent to overall ad-hocs. I think globally OH is 7 percent. We expect outdoor to grow by 6.4 percent this year, taking the total outdoor advertising market to 3,700 crores. OH share of media is expected to grow in the coming years with the development of infra projects like Metro in a larger number of Indian cities and emergence of many smart cities. Retail, consumer services and real estate are the top 3 categories that contribute more than 40 percent to OH. Highest growth though amongst OH was recorded by guess who? The media category itself, I believe a terrific endorsement for the outdoor medium by people who should know their media or is it a case of the other man's wife being more beautiful? Taking a closer look at radio in our estimate radio has grown by 5.4 percent last year to become a 2,260 crore market and has maintained its share at 3.3 percent. It grew by 116 crores while in the first half it grew well like many other media. At 18 percent the media it took a big hit in the second half when it de-grew by 6 percent on account of slowing down of the economy and reduced government spending. We expect radio in this year to maintain the same growth rate of 5 percent that it achieved in 2019. E-commerce has emerged as one of the main contributors to radio's growth followed by FMCG, BFSI, education and retail categories. These categories collectively contributed 60 percent to radio's growth of 116 crores. Lastly let's take a closer look at cinema. Cinema has grown by 30 percent in 2019 in line with our projection and contributes now to almost 2 percent of ad-ex. Cinema that has not been the favorite of too many advertisers in the last two years has gained some momentum having gained grown by 37.4 percent in 2018 and 30 percent in 2019. Though the base is small cinema is the only other medium besides digital that has grown so well. We are bullish on cinema and in 20 percent in 2020 we see three factors that will further propel cinema. Selling on reach rather than by theaters, selling on audiences on cost per thousand basis and with better analytics supporting which movies advertisers should back. We are estimating a conservative 20 percent growth given the low base which will take cinema ad-ex up to 1255 crores in 2020. Finally I would like to end with some advice for all my advertiser friends. Last month Madison put out a white paper on what advertiser should do in the slowdown that we are currently facing and released a 10 point marketing playbook. I like to highlight the points we mentioned in this white paper and if anyone of you wants a copy of it please let us know. Our first recommendation is to temper expectations from the rural market for 2020 not of course for all time to come. This is because for the first time in 7 years consumer growth in rural is slower than in urban markets. Secondly we advise that pick your markets carefully because all states in India are not going through a slowdown of equal intensity. Markets that are less affected by the slowdown are Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra and Gujarat. In the current context it makes sense to go for premiumization because the well healed and the salaried are less affected by the current slowdown. So while generally the advice is that to take advantage of a country like India you need to go mass we believe in the current circumstances as a short term measure, premiumization may be a good idea. Focus on modern trade and e-commerce. Share of modern trade has crossed the threshold of 10% and e-commerce is expected to grow from 2% to 2019 to 5% in 2022. So you need to be prepared to write this growth. Our fifth suggestion is to invest in brand love. It is tempting during slowdown to advertise to resort to short term promotions but our advice is not to succumb to such temptation and in fact focus on building brand equity at a time like this. A sixth recommendation is to manage your brand portfolio tightly and we believe this can be done very successfully with the use of analytics which would help maximize your ROI. I don't know if this advice would go down well with my advertiser friends but we strongly believe that at a time like this you should not under invest. If you invest below the threshold point our view is that you waste the entire advertising budget. Another recommendation we have is that what we call ESOV that is excess share of voice which represents the additional share of voice over share of market has a high correlation with brand share growth. So try and achieve that in the current context and you have a better chance of winning brand share. Milk existing assets most advertisers change creative too early before the copy actually wears out and our last recommendation is make TV and digital your go to media. Without television stand alone ROI on digital campaigns comes down and digital can add to incremental reach of television at higher frequencies at a much lower cost. So it makes sense to add digital to your television campaigns to improve ROI. Thank you very much ladies and gentlemen for listening to me.