 Yn ddweud, y mae'n gweld i'r ffwrdd yn yu'r gweithio, mae'n meddwl i'r Unid Gweithio bwysig, am dewis o'r 12.30 am yr ystod, bobl 50 ydy'r meddyl yn menddiadol i'r proses sydd yn ychydig i'r meddwl i'r meddwl i'r gwneud i'r ddwylo ddwylo ddwylo i'r Uned Gweithio. Mae'n meddwl i'r ffwrdd yn ddwylo i'r meddwl i'r meddwl i'r meddwl Ieimg y dyna oedd yn ffynllwyr hwnnw o'r ein bod i'n cael eu gwahon sy'n dwylch. Rydyn ni'n debyg, mae'n cofnod pob meddwl. Mae'r cyhoeddion i'n meddwl iddyn, dweud o trwy oedd y cyhoeddion i'n meddwl funnig ardal, o'r cyhoeddion i'n meddwl i'n meddwl iddyn. Diolch y ffordd yng Nghymru, mae canhaith yn troi yn ymgwrth oes. Mae'r proses yn sylfaennau oedden nhw'n rhan o'r ymgyrchu, more palatible than others. And I think everybody agrees whether they are in favour of us leaving or as favour of us remaining that we are engaged in an uncertain process that involves to some degree a leap in the dark. What we do know is that the House of Commons is composed in large part of members of Parliament who supported in large part remain. Seventy-four percent of MPs across the house supported remain and 26 percent of MPs supported leave. A small majority of conservative MPs, 56% supported remain. The Labour Party was very much in favour of remain with only seven of 222 Labour MPs supporting leave. All parties in the House of Commons formally supported remain, with exception of the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland and the one then UKIP MP who comes and goes as we know, as he wishes. And since the people voted on June last year, there has been a series of debates and the government decided to trigger article 50 with some advice from the Supreme Court. A bill was produced and it went through Parliament and MPs, although 74% supported remain, 26 supported leave, MPs overwhelmingly supported the government's recommendation following the people's recommendation that article 50 be triggered. An indicative Labour vote, indicative Commons vote held on a Labour motion supported a majority of 373 with only 75 votes against. The third reading of the Brexit bill had a majority of 372 with only 122 against mostly Labour MPs, the Scottish National Party and the one member of the Kenneth Clarke party, the only conservative opposing the proposal. And then in discussing Lord's amendments, having rejected all other Commons amendments presented to the bill, there were majorities of narrow majorities of 48 on EU nationals' rights before the negotiations and on the rejected amendment on quote, holding a meaningful final parliamentary vote on any deal after the conclusion of Brexit, a majority of 45. So here we go, we are to leave. MPs it's worth saying voted overwhelmingly for the European Union Referender Act in June 2015 by 544 votes to 53. So they asked us what to do and the people following the national conversation however unclear or unsatisfactory it may have been decided that they would make a recommendation by the narrow or substantial depending on your judgment vote of 52% to 48% in the referenda. The referenda was explicitly non binding, it's worth noting that of course we in Britain have no experience of national referenda, only three referendas nationally in the history of our island, particularly local and national ones in Scotland, Wales and in London on subjects on local government matters, but we've only ever had three national referenda, the one in 2011 which was on reforming the House of Commons was a binding, this one isn't. But why have MPs voted to trigger article 50? I think for the most part we can conclude thus far is that most remain MPs, even should they see themselves as representatives, a Berkian notion of representative that they owe their judgment, not the slavist follower of their constituency, if they don't see themselves as delegates I think largely consider themselves bound to respect the outcome of the referenda and Parliament has the duty to enact in some way the will of the majority of people who wish to leave the EU or at least reform our relations. The status quo as far as the majority of Parliament is no longer up for negotiation, I think that helps to understand the position. It's an easy choice of course if you're an MP who's a leave MP representing a leave constituency and for those few remain MPs representing remain constituents if you want to follow your judgment, your own opinion, your conscience, as some did and a harder choice of course if you are a leave MP representing a remain constituency and a remain MP representing a leave constituency and research has shown although we voted in the referenda in larger geographical voting areas so research suggests that considered an educated guess suggests that 61% of constituencies supported leave and 39% supported remain which is a larger majority than that a meaningless majority of course because the vote was simply a per capita person voting. So what explains this process? Well I think as well as the willingness of Parliament, the Commons to enact the will of the people by respecting the outcome of the referenda I think that partisan politics it's never very far from our politics is it not explains some part. Labour is in favour of triggering article 50 but is in favour of then trying to influence the process by which we leave they do so because although Labour was in favour of remaining a large number of Labour voters and a large number of Labour constituencies particularly north of London outside of what we now tend to call the metropolitan elite which of course involves other urban areas make it difficult. So Labour is in the difficult position of having to represent the interests of Hampstead which voted to stay and Hull which voted to leave this gives the party a difficulty. The Liberal-Democratic strategy I think is relatively straightforward they were in favour of a referendum and then against a referendum they supported leave and now they are escorted remain of course and now they have set themselves up as the EU party de jure par excellence as they see it of way in which they can crawl back from the electoral hammering that they received as a result of their participation in the coalition government expressed in the 2015 election. The SMP of course are voting for Scotland for Scottish independence and they think and having today triggered their own desire in the parliamentary vote today in Scotland about the move towards a second independence referendum following the European Union decision taken by the UK citizens they are in favour of pursuing their objective for independence by using the EU issue. Conservative party loyalty and ambition and party line voting may well explain some of the process so politics are at work and as we go forward in the difficult process ahead in the two years of negotiations which are going to be a terribly difficult and protracted process fraught with danger and difficulty I think we will see partisan politics at work but I think that most parliamentarians will have the forefront of their mind the wish of the people expressed in the referendum and be following public opinion which of course as we know is tracked by opinion poll and by electoral outcomes. What now going forward is parliament's role? I think there are a series of them I've identified six which I'd like to share with you if I may given the fact that you know my guess is as good as yours but this is I think the process well first of all parliament enabled the referenda they asked us to decide. Secondly parliament triggered article 50 which it has done the now going forward parliament has the following responsibilities the first is to scrutinise the negotiations to hold the government to account by questions statements select committee investigations. Fourthly to advise on the negotiations to try to influence the opinions of the government and our negotiators. I think in that regard MPs and are going to explain in my conclusions why this is that MPs will influence the government not instruct they can instruct but I think the way in which our parliamentary politics works the way partisan politics operates in the House of Commons means that I think we can expect that MPs will influence not instruct influence can be significant the government was not minded to produce a white paper before we discussed collectively in parliament the triggering of article 50 it did so because it was the will of the parliamentary party particularly conservative government back benches who wanted one to be presented and the government acceded to that demands. Governments operate on the basis of anticipated reaction they respond they can't ignore parliament they can't coerce it as much as they want they have to fifthly agree the deal ratify the agreement and we ask ourselves will MPs approve the deal before it is done or ratify the deal when it is agreed we don't yet know parliament will have a vote Mrs May has promised but what type of vote remains unclear and parliament of course can prepare for Brexit. My conclusion is that the UK Parliament is a reactive legislature it usually because of the partisan nature of its dealings it can support amend or reject legislation presented by the government but it cannot usually propose alternative legislation of its own. The House of Commons in our parliamentary system has two key often competing functions the first is that it supplies and supports the government that is the role of the 51% of MPs or conservative MPs who we the people returned with a majority at the last election but as well as supplying and supporting the government it has also to check and balance that government should those two conflicts two functions conflict then usually the government majority will choose to supply and support the government rather than check and balancing it balance it. We will see what the Commons does in regard to Brexit it will have a vote but at the moment your guess is as good as to mine as to what vote it wants. The Commons has the nuclear option that it can pull the plug on the government but partisan politics suggests that the history doesn't mean that that is likely to happen and we need to see but government will have to listen to parliament parliament is going to scrutinise the process of the negotiations it's going to try to influence that and we the people will do that as well in our voice and votes in the two year process as we go forward and of course the news media and commentary the commentary will play a role too but parliament is part of the process but I do think that the role prerogative the right to make treaties by the executive will be the way in which and parliament will probably be asked to ratify a treaty that has been agreed rather than agree a treaty that is then presented and that means that the government very much will remain in the driving seat assuming that there is no election which is unlikely to happen before June 2020 after before which time the process will have been concluded. Thank you very much for your