 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Yesterday was just one of those days it really reminds you of how awesome sports are of course I'm talking partly due to myself because we had the Northwest for Wildcats men's basketball team beating Purdue That's one aspect out of just for me, but also last night's game was fun And I think for me at least I love watching Super Bowl with like a group of people because I get the fun atmosphere I watch every game during the regular season by myself. I'm okay Not devoting full attention to just one game, you know, if means I get to have a fun atmosphere People sweating around me and stuff like that. I think that's a lot of fun and watching a really good game where two young Quarterbacks balled out played amazing football and the cheese win that game But honestly, I think we all won it was a fun game It was a fun day for sports and I think a great day to kind of I think it was Implematic of a lot of the key things that we could take into 2023 as better So we're gonna do today is we're gonna recap the Super Bowl first But then also take a look at five takeaways. I've had from this postseason From that game and from the overall year as a whole we can take into our, you know Our betting thoughts for 2023. So I'm gonna go through all that for today We'll get back into talking NBA talking PGA tomorrow on the show. We'll talk some NASCAR on Wednesday So we'll get into, you know, forward-looking stuff, you know, actual bets bet recommendations and stuff like that Wanted to go more big picture for today recap the Super Bowl and break down some betting takeaways from last night We'll dive on into that in just one second This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sata. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here Like I said to recap last night's Super Bowl 57 breakdown the key takeaways talk about the game talk about the betting angles on it and Take a look forward to what we should learn from it for 2023 We'll dive into all that in just one second But as a reminder, make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because a lot of good shows Coming up this week. Well, that's an NHL talking there as well. We'll talk some English Premier League It's gonna be a mixed bag as we get out of the NFL season. I just kind of talking about all the sports and action talking about all that stuff I will not be talking XFL. Maybe we'll get someone on the show who will do it for me But not me me I can ask some questions, but not personally but a lot of other really good stuff really fun stuff For this week, so make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, check us out over on the faddle YouTube page where you can get these shows posted after the fact The midway point of the NBA season is here and now is the perfect time to download faddle America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the faddle sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores and Three strain plus family that lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay So don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 and bonus bets Make every moment more a faddle an official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and presidents like states first online a real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at faddle.com slash sportsbook gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or visit faddle.com slash Rg in Arizona one hundred next step or text next step defy 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling help dot org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open wide and in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Okay, so I want to take a quick look back at last night's game and We had a lot of bets last week on the show. We had four separate shows on it So don't have a lot of time to recap Everything we discussed in the show. So instead of doing covering the past I wanted to go through some key takeaways from this game from the post season season overall and we can carry it into this year and Most of those do revolve around some aspect of last night's game and the first thing is that I the chief's Moneyline plus one ten or plus one away depending if you've got a fandal or elsewhere from last Monday, and they were down ten at the half Even with that being true Never really felt like they were out of it Which is kind of annoying in a way because a lot of times it can be liberating be like, okay I've lost this bet I can just enjoy the second half the game Instead the chiefs you're always sweaty because they might come back and but you never are the feeler out of it We'll talk more about what that means later on But I think overall my biggest takeaway from last night was how freaking efficient on offense the chiefs were but also both teams the Chiefs last night average point four four EPA per drop back passing and point two three EPA per attempt Russian Those are via next-gen stats and for some context on that Patrick Mahomes led the league during the regular season in EPA per drop back at point point two two the chiefs were better than that both passing and Rushing last night that is bananas and Joan Hertz did it too. He was a point two nine EPA per drop back passing Which does not count what he did as a rusher all those quarterback sneaks He was actually above he was a point on what is a rusher even if you include the fumble return for a touchdown so These two guys put on a show. It was absolutely insane So sure we could talk about the holding call if we wanted to It was a big play. It was a bummer to have such a fun game Kind of come to an end effectively on a play that while was holding was not blatant He didn't tackle anything like that. It was holding James Bradbury said it was holding and You know that matters I think it's important though to note that that holding called didn't factor into those EPA numbers and the chiefs Their offense was unstoppable last night for the most part the Eagles were pretty unstoppable themselves to one offense So I think we need to give like a round of applause to both teams both coaching staffs both quarterbacks But I think that performance by the chiefs offense Andy Reed Eric B. Enemy Legendary stuff and that was my biggest takeaway is that they're amazing I know it's not a huge takeaway, but like it was just so fun to watch that as far as the MVP last night goes My initial thought was hurts. I thought the jail and hurts despite the loss should have been the MVP That's something they do very often. It would not have been the first time I don't believe but I thought what the way he played Initially my gut reaction was hurts should have still been MVP all the sneaks three rushing touchdowns really good passing efficiency too Some just sicko throws like really good stuff. I thought he should have an MVP then this morning pulling up the EPA numbers. I'm not fretting EPA numbers during the game, but looking at my home's EPA numbers. I kind of get it So I think they would have been justified giving it to hurts given how well he played given the impact he had in that game But I think it had to be one of the two quarterbacks with the show they put on I did push I say if it's echo MVP during during last week, he was 50 to 1 He's 50 to 1 for a reason, you know, maybe if he that third and short call where he Got the end around he got tackling the open field Maybe if that's a touchdown he's in consideration because he would have had like hundred or so yards to touch on at that point You know, it should have been the quarterbacks. It was the right call. I think you Reasonably could have given it to either guy even with hurts losing. I think he could have an MVP So I don't disagree at the call. I think that it was the right call looking at the EPA numbers But I mean those two guys were phenomenal last night Just really fun to watch those two and finally, I think that the the other takeaway I had is that How much fun betting can make things even if there's no money on the line because we were at a Super Bowl party last night I was some friends and we had a pool a picks pool Five dollars each person so super low money on the line and just picked various props You know coin toss the over under for the anthem gatorade color stuff like that And it means that even people who don't like football or don't care can be engaged in the game and have Something to root for and I think that element is super fun at the end of the game You know instead of talking about okay is me MVP We're asking what the gatorade color was I look it up on Twitter You're like everyone's mad that we didn't get to see the gatorade stuff like that It just adds like an extra layer of fun I love that aspect of gamifying sports where it can get more people engaged with stuff that I love I love watching football love love baseball and ask are all this stuff And I like that more people can get engaged with it via this outlet I think that the key part there is It's important that it's done so in a way where if you lose It's no big deal because I hope you had fun last night I hope you had a lot of fun last night, but think about what it would have been if you you know if you had been overextended and It stinks to lose a bit of money like you know, let's say You lose a bit of money, you know, you're gonna be bummed regardless But with a game like that, I want to make sure I am Limited enough in my bets where even if I lose every single bet I can still enjoy myself I don't want to deprive myself of Having fun like I did last night because I'm too busy bed or too busy sweating bets Sports are supposed to be fun So make sure you keep your bets in check so that you can just enjoy the game Rather than getting frustrated if things don't hit I think that that's a key takeaway always it is always important to never bet more than you can afford to lose always always always It's especially true for Super Bowl because like there are so many markets so many dumb markets You can bet on and stuff like that. I want to enjoy the game It's a lot easier for me personally to enjoy the game if I have less on the line So I do like the betting aspect of it. I love that it can get people engaged but Responsibly, I like the the low dollar aspect of it when we're betting socially with people and stuff like that And I don't change my process in terms of betting Super Bowl I want to keep things in check there as well to make sure I can just enjoy myself and not be sweating things constantly But it is fun when you can add the extra layer people who may not be huge football fans So that's my thoughts in last night's game I want to spin that forward though and take a look back at Kind of lump it into the postseason the whole the 2022 season the whole and talk about how we can spin Those takeaways forward to betting 2023 and obviously we don't want to overreact to just one game Because you can lead you down a bad path I think that honestly had a bit of that last year like with the Jalen Hertz game against the Buccaneers and the playoffs like I think I Overweighted that game in my head So it's important not to over weigh one game in your head But I do want to use last night as kind of a vehicle for discussing other takeaways I've had this year that I want to carry it next year And I think the big thing for me goes back to what we discussed before the cheese were down 10 Never felt like they were out of it because passing is still king And that's my first takeaway years of passing is still king the cheese were down 10 didn't matter because having an efficient passing Offense means you can make up ground in a hurry now That's true at the Eagles too if they had gotten behind I probably wouldn't have felt like they were out of it because they could throw a Negative game script for a team with a good passing offense is not a death sentence They can make up ground and score points so I've talked about the The entirety of the year by how I'm running two models for this year one model weighs passing pretty heavily and The other one is more agnostic about passing versus rushing But it separates early downs and late downs early down EPA late down success rates and I thought the old one be better because I Thought that the old or I thought that the new one would be better because the old one might over weigh passing and I like the the idea of the having early down EPA late down success rate I love that thought process and that's why I built that model, but didn't seem to be the case so I ran both models concurrently from week 13 on and I wanted to see which one performed better and That'd be the one I'd use primarily for next year's its competition. It's a sample of 104 games So it's a small sample and that's important to keep mine But I wanted to compare the two using mean squared error if you're building a model mean squared error is your best friend Basically, it tells you how far off were you from the final score not factoring in the direction So let's say hypothetically. I had the cheese fair by three last night if they had lost by one Area there would be four negative four depending which way you want to go and then you square it so that it's non directional So the mean squared error from off by four points is 16 If we go from week 13 on the old model on tuesdays had a mean squared error of 137.61 The new model was 143.19. So the old model beat the new one there the markets on tuesday for context So like the betting lines were 141.45 So the old model beat the tuesday market and the new model did not and that's kind of the key thing is If it's better, but doesn't beat the market who cares um So the old model was better there Same thing with the close after adjusting for injuries the old model on game days had a mean squared error of 135.23 the new one was 143.12 and the market 141.45 so again the old model beat the market and the new one did not The new model still had a positive ROI not sure how sustainable that was given that it had a worse mean squared error than the market did but If I look at just spread better recommendations from that model from week 13 on it was a positive 13.87 That's just really good. I I love to take that typically, but the old model in that sample 36.3 percent ROI, which is not sustainable That's not going to stick And I think that it's important to mention that the the older model did not do that well for the full season If I just bet every spreader recommended for the full year the ROI would have been 13.1 percent Um, I didn't do that. I did not have a good year in nfl this year. I should have done that did not do that So the model was good. I was not and I think that's important important distinction to make Although the model did well. I did not have my great year betting nfl So in the news in the sample I looked at here The new model kicked the old or the the old model kicked the new model spot I think a lot of that is because of how heavily it weighs passing It was high in teams like the lions like the jags due to their passing efficiency And the Bengals too up until the conference championship where I thought they were overvalued there And those teams performed really well so if you're building out a new betting model for the nfl and I think with the proliferation of legalization I could see a lot of you trying to dive into that first time this off season I would segment efficiency by rushing and passing and make sure passing Has more weight even than like overall the epa potentially that's that's mine has. Um It gives you multiple routes to a win or a cover because even if you fall behind You still have a shot and stay there in defense to you are passing efficiency Passing and defensive efficiency matters more than overall than rushing defensive efficiency and stuff like that so I'm going to roll into 2023 With the old model being my base model I'm still going to run the other one too to expand the sample, you know, it's on only 104 games It had a higher correlation to the market which I think matters I think you want to generally be pretty close to the market um but my win total bets be based on that old model and As opposed to calling it the old model which seems dismissive I will stop calling it that I will call it now the base model my primary model and then The new model will be the alternate model. I think that's why I'll phrase them going forward So it's not old versus new because new implies that one's better which it clearly was not Down the stretch. So take away number one passing is still king And I think that that old model performed better because it put more weight in passing than the other one did Second takeaway is that You can still find good betting value during the playoffs When I first started betting I was worried that there wouldn't be a lot of betting value during the post season because There's a lot of money on these games a lot of attention and a lot of attention means Smart people are putting money into this market and likely making an efficient. That was my thought process at least um We had John Sheeran on the director of trading of fandal sports We had him uncovering the spread Four or so years ago. I think and he said no actually with so much attention you get a lot of non-smart money in the market and That can lead to still decently inefficient lines And I think we saw that if we look at just the post season My primary model saw value in seven seven games so seven out of 13 Just over half and the team that it said to bet on covered in six of those seven games The one miss was the 49ers against the eagles. That was not close. That was a bummer I also the bucks plus three as one of my bets on the show but that was based on the new model and that one That bet did not work. Um did not come close That model went four and one uh with that one being the one loss this year But it found value in just four five out of 13 games versus seven out of 13 the other model so I think the takeaway for me is I can still get a decent number of bets in If I don't change my criteria for betting just because the post season just because there are fewer games So to me it's kind of make sure you keep your process in the post season Make sure you're not betting games that you wouldn't bet if they were during the regular season because There's always next year. There's always other sports. You can bet and stuff like that I don't think you should change your threshold in order to get more bets out during the playoffs That's a really good way to lose some money. So And those bets were profitable too. So the takeaway is don't change your standards for the playoffs Be okay Not having bets like there are gonna be games or days where you don't have bets out there. That should be okay You know, it's okay being comfortable with that Taking the long view and realizing that there'll be more bets down the line because you can find value in the playoffs It can be good value and if you possibly find value in a decent number of games Just don't force it. Don't change your standards just because there are fewer games to bet on for that week Another takeaway from me from last night is that scoring is not dead um And it can be high when guys are healthy. I think there's a very important caveat to make because My initial thought when I saw that the total for the super bowl was 49 and a half and open I thought my numbers would stay under because eagles defense is solid they run a decent amount which means that they drain clock a bit more and 49 and a half was a big number But when I ran my numbers before injury adjustments to the cheese, it was a 51 It was a 49.97 after grading down for what I thought would be more guys missing than what wound up missing And then we saw what happens. Uh, the market did go up I think as we got a good idea of the health of the receivers. So It went up and I think that was totally appropriate And the reason why that worked was because we had two really good quarterbacks in this game two really good offenses and that'll be key entering week one because If you're talking like health at least Quarterback play is likely to be the best it'll be all year entering week one So if you show value in an over based on, you know, your betting process Don't be hesitant to take it just because you're worried about, um, how low scoring was this year I think the the overall scoring average wound up being around like 44.15 or somewhere in there Which is a pretty low number compared to what we saw in 2020. I think it was lower than 2021 as well So you could be worried about that if you're seeing value in some overs, but Recency bias could skew us towards unders. Uh, there were a lot of bad quarterback play the final month the regular season There's a lot of wind a lot of cold was an impact the way teams played it even though I don't know why fact that more and I guess for myself but we can still get points when quarterbacks are healthy and when the guys around them are healthy and I did not take the over in this game because it was fair value to me, uh, but it made sense It played out. So I think going into next year if you Like an over where quarterbacks are healthy receivers are healthy offense. A lot is healthy and stuff like that I wouldn't get too worried about it just because what we saw this year. I think that It comes down to quarterback health a lot of the time the reason that scoring can be down Other times. It was also there were a lot of heavy rushing teams and stuff like that but Don't worry too much if you see value in overs because if teams are healthy, we can still see a lot of points Put up on the board fourth takeaway from me and this one specific to last night's game is Don't factor in against the spread record when trying to predict what a team will do going forward I saw some analysis this past week saying that the chiefs were going to be overvalued in the Super Bowl because they went 7 11 and 1 against the spread to that point and I can't get behind that kind of thought because the against the spread record shows that they had underperformed expectations to that point But the market reacts because if people keep losing money on the cheese They're not going to bet the cheese and people aren't betting the cheese That means that you're going to get less money on the cheese. That's going to have the market react We saw this with the Super Bowl With the the money coming in the Eagles probably partly a reaction to my home's health the receiver health the Eagles being very good stuff like that and The market will react to this stuff So that against the spread record is descriptive not predictive and it's baked into the current number so You're using something that happened previously and is accounted for And using it to predict what will continue to happen But there are a couple flaws in that the first thing is that as as discussed It's already factored in in a way The second is that The goal during the regular season is not for a team to cover It's for them to win and the chiefs Played with their food a lot during the regular season We saw that pretty consistently where I know that they covered in that Rams game I think the spread is like 14 and a half and they won by 16 but like They were absolutely playing with their food there Their goal is not To cover it's to win so that they're up seven spreads nine and a half who cares So in a lot of ways that against the spread record Doesn't matter like they don't care I don't think we should either if your model says that they've been efficient Who cares what their spread against the record is so I think it's fine to cite this stuff It is okay to mention it. I mentioned how the Jags have been good to me That's basically a similar line of thought where I've been betting them without the marcos undervaluing them But I'm not telling you to bet the Jags because they've been good to me I'm betting them because my numbers continue to show value So make bets based on what you think will happen in the game Not what has happened in the past And this is kind of true for all frenzy type stuff like, you know Mike tommy is an underdog Tom Brady is an underdog stuff like that If it I think that what you want to do is if you look at that stuff Ask yourself does this matter and ask yourself Is the market accounting for it? They does this matter thing will lop off a lot of those frenzy type bets If it matters and the market is not accounting for it, you're good to go That's probably a good thing to focus on, you know If I mean I think passing efficiency is underway in the market stuff like that If it matters If it doesn't matter if it leans on outdated data or it's accounted for by the markets Try to find some other route for deciding what to bet on or just don't bet the game at all That's always an option too So it's okay to look at that kind of stuff Like but just make sure you tread lightly because it can oftentimes lead you down very bad paths If you if you already have like a thought in mind of who you want to bet Using that as a justification Maybe you should find a different justification. Maybe your justification for them is weak So it's okay to look at that stuff. It's okay to talk about it But do not use it as a reason for making it bet the cheese against the spread record Doesn't matter Effectively like yes, under falling relative to expectations matters. It should bump them down But the market was accounting for that because they were one and a half point underdogs to the eagles in the Super Bowl Pretty clear they were accounting for that So if you're using that number to analyze this game, I think that's pretty flawed thinking so I know that we'll see like against the spread record like on tv graphics and stuff like that You'll see it cited online Just be wary if it's accounted for already be wary of it if it's not accounted for sure You know whatever don't if you think the market is still undervaluing them That's one thing but don't use as your sole justification for betting a team Now finally other thing the final take away from me is we need to continue to weigh situation heavily and by situation I mean Play uh play callers past catchers offensive line the infrastructure around a quarterback and I care about it a lot It's something that I want to emphasize But I think I may I may have underweighted it a bit with the eagles this year My preseason win projection if I go back to my preseason win totals, uh had the eagles at 9.8 wins That was above the bookmakers by a smidge. They were nine and a half Was 55 54 percent to go over that number. So basically right in line of the bookmakers But it didn't have them anywhere near the best team in the nfc. They were behind Tampa Bay Green Bay San Francisco a bunch of teams were above them And I think that the reason I had them lower than I should have was because I underweighted the addition of a j brown and I paid for that financially early in the year Across the first eight weeks my numbers told me to bet the spread against the eagles five times My numbers in those games were one and four so That was not good. Eventually my numbers did catch up because you know Obviously new data is factored in and that that adjusts But if I had a higher baseline on the eagles coming in I would not have lost that money early in the season so Situation infrastructure has been a big thing for me for a long time But I think I need to recommit to it this off season Obviously, there are times where that would not work because That process could have led to you to being too low in the chiefs this year Um, they were still atop my priests and power rankings with the bills So like if you trust Patrick my homes, you wouldn't go that way But like it could lead you down that path and it also could have led to Potentially being too high on the jets. They did go over the win total but like you could have been Betting the jets a lot and that down the stretch that would not have been a good thing So it can go poorly But with jaymond hurts he had proven He could be a solid quarterback. He could have solid efficiency numbers in a good situation So I should have been higher on him in a great situation, which is what he had this year So I want to remake sure That I am emphasizing that my process this year emphasizing infrastructure emphasizing play calling Situation around the quarterback now. It's really good and the quarterback has shown Some semblance of competency. I feel pretty high in them I was not low on the Eagles this year, but I was lower than I should have been and I think that if I had Wade in the age of brown edition more weighed in the offensive line Had some trust in Shane Steichen and Nick Siriani Maybe I'd have been higher on them and I wouldn't have lost those games earlier on so situation matters a lot unless you're Patrick my homes And it's important to factor that in pretty heavily When you are making preseason priors betting early on and stuff like that So those are my takeaways from this year and I want to caveat that with those are my takeaway specifically if you disagree with me Cool, that's fine. Um, you should disagree. It means you're critically thinking and like coming to your own conclusion Those are just my takeaways and that's how I want to make my bets But you got to find your own individual process. I got to find routes like maybe you think I'm wrong about passing efficiency Sweet, like, you know, if you if you can find Good profitable bets based off of that. That's awesome. Uh, my process though Is that and it's important to formulate your own process Via going through this stuff via thinking critically via thinking, you know Okay, what did I get wrong here? Did I get something wrong? Was it just variance? Was it whatever? But go back through your own process go back through your own bets decide what went wrong Why did it go wrong? What went well? Why did it go well or why did it? Why did I benefit from variance there and stuff like that? I think that just that having A couple minutes to yourself before next year thinking through All these things are still fresh in your mind Thinking through what you did this year what you want to tweak for next year put it down to google doc or something like that To make sure you have a note of for next year because it's important to learn and I think I learned a lot this year And it's been helpful for me Hopefully can make me perform better next year because again my numbers do all this year But I didn't have a great year So I want to try to refocus that for next year and it's okay if you disagree with the takeaways I discussed here These are just my my personal diary basically heading into 2023 That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as I said We are back to regular bets coming up tomorrow gonna brandy gadoo on to talk about some golf will talk some I believe nba as well We're in talks NASCAR on wednesday with dr. Nick giffin to get you set for the day tone of 500 and plenty more coming up Throughout this week so make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Check us out on the fandal youtube page as well. You want to watch a video version of the show If you've got any questions from me or if you want to tweet your takeaways from betting this year at me Love to hear those. I'm on twitter at jim sonnis and j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Hopefully last night was a fun one for you. Hopefully it was a profitable one for you as well But hopefully again Having fun the most important thing will talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network