 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccessotrader.com. We can update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is enjoying their three day weekend time to decompress. Obviously take some time to be a better friend to yourself to get your mind right and get really focused for the new week. Again, a lot of us that have been doing this for a very, very long time know and understand the importance of time off of decompression of being, you know, just being a better friend to yourself. Like I mentioned before, just relaxing, doing something nice and making sure your soul, your mind, your body, everything is 100% accurate, 100% correct, and you're focused on the task at hand. So this weekend hopefully everybody had a great weekend. But more important guys, always try to better yourself. I don't care any way that you trade, that you decide to trade, whatever your journey takes you every single weekend, especially for the new traders for the first three to five years. You know, you have to work. You have to work. You have to develop your craft. There's no, in my opinion, there's no such thing as a great trader. Okay. All of us are shit. Okay. All of us are trying to just get less shittier every single day. And that's the key, right? I don't know what a great trader is, but the most important part is get the information that you need. Get as much screen time as you need and make sure you develop your craft. Because again, if you're not putting in the work, just understand the person on the other side of the trade is. So before we start the weekend update, just a little piece of business. If you are interested in pivots and you kind of have always been interested in kind of what we do, what I do in the whole PS60 theory, Sunday and Monday today and tomorrow. We're running our last summer trial to kind of the introduction to the webinar until Christmas. So if you are interested, you have a couple of days to kind of take advantage of it. It's a great reaction to our Squawk box. Well, you guys are enjoying that as well. Most important part is you get to see technical analysis play out in real time. Not after the fact. Now what might happen, it's happening, right? It's happening in front of you and why the moving parts are so important. So if you are interested or have been interested in the PS60 theory, use the next couple of days to kind of take advantage of it and get a really cool introduction for the next 30 days of what happens next, right? And that's the whole point. What happens next? So if you've been watching this video, even the last couple of months, even the last couple of weeks, you kind of know the importance of levels. You kind of know the importance of how the 50-day moving average is going to be a big player of what happens next. And all you need to do is kind of go back to April, right? April, we lost the 50-day moving average. And what happened for the next five, six, seven months was a sequence of sell bias events. And again, we might have days that we had runs, right? We even had days that we rallied. The length is the overall trend is all the way down. And what happened was all these stocks, you know, when they were up so much, right? And there's a whole argument, you know, the stocks like Affirm and UPST and they were really big growth names that had their big rallies in 1920 and 21, you know, they came in. And the argument was, well, were they really supposed to be at those levels to begin with? But once they lost the 50-day moving average, that wasn't just them. Once they lost the 50-day moving average, everything got taken down. So you could see with your own eyes, right? Once you got below the 50-day moving average, we built the base and we went lower. Yes, you had some days that you had run-ups, but overall we were lower. The problem for the bears, right? Once they gave up the 50-day moving average, you could see this whole light blue line. They started rallying for the next month. And now we came up to that level that we saw came Monday. Came Monday, we had a really strong fight to the death. It was a death match for the bulls and bears, control over the 50-day moving average. Tuesday, they finally gave it up, right? And then what happened for the next three days was selling. But more important of what happened in the next three days is now we're building a base. Again, all you need to do is look with your eyes. Look with your eyes. You don't need to fight with anybody on the Internet. You don't need to give your opinion and look for what happens with your eyes. When we build a base below the 50-day moving average, and look what happens when you build a base above the 50-day moving average, and that's where we are right now. We are day one, two, three, four, five, right? We're day five underneath the 50-day moving average, and we're building below it. So the longer we stay below the 50-day, and now the 50-day is around that 305 level, the longer we stay below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability we continue to go lower. Your positions that you're holding that you are preying now, because realistically that's where you are, right? You had your chance at the 50-day moving average the first time around to see us control. But now, again, you're in prayer mode. If you're an investor and you've been watching this video just for the last week, you kind of know that, again, and this is a cheat sheet, guys. This is even if you're a brand new trader, and this is your first piece of introduction to technical analysis. I'm going to give you the ultimate hack, the ultimate cheat code for directional bias. Any time your stock, ETF, or whatever the case may be, closes above the 50-day moving average and builds, that's bullish, right? That's bullish. When you close below the 50-day moving average, that's bearish. There's no room for interpretations. It's not a conversation you should be wasting your time with somebody else. This is reality. You have eyes. You can see what happens next. And the most important part is, first, it was regulated just to the technology names, right? Technology names started building below the 50-day moving average, right? You can see the light blue line. They started getting hit. You see names like Google, Microsoft, right? Below the 50-day moving average getting hit. AMD, below the 50-day moving average, right? Here's the 50-day, the light blue line, the 50-day moving average getting hit. NVIDIA lost its 50-day moving average, right? Before even the news came out with China and this, that, the other thing, it lost the 50-day moving average and getting hit. And we started going through not just technology names. We started talking about over the course of the week, financials, right? Look what happened. Financials gave back, right? Gave back, had a nice little bump up here on the jobs number. Closed right below again, on and on and on and on. If you start looking at charts just over the weekend, you could see the names that have broke down below the 50-day moving average. And you could see the names that are about to break down the 50-day moving average. But the longer we close and we stay below the 50-day moving average on the queues, the higher probability, the growth and biotech and anything else that is part of the NASDAQ 100 will get pulled back as well. On Wednesday's video, right? On Wednesday's video, we talked about the Russell, right? We said how important that 183 level was because this was the last index that was testing and about to lose the 50-day. Well, you know, the Russell lost it, right? Lost the 50-day here at 183. Again, all you have to do is go back to, what was it? Wednesday's video, right? That 183, we got below that 183 and now we're building a base below that 183, which is the 50-day moving average. So now it's just not a technology issue. Now it's a broad market issue. And the longer we build the likely that more stocks, more different groups will start building below. So for example, so for every name, technology name that I'm watching this week, you can see Tesla is above the 50-day moving average, right? The question is how long? Amazon is above the 50-day moving average, right? Question is how long? Apple is above it, right? Still the question is how long? But again, it's not just technology. Look at names like CSX, for example, right? CSX is just sitting right on the 50-day moving average, a name like Honeywell, right? Sitting right on the 50-day moving average. So if you are doing your homework this weekend, and again, I encourage especially new traders, you should be looking at thousands of charts every single weekend, even if you don't know what you're looking at, right? Eventually muscle memory, you'll turn around and go, oh, wait a minute, what is this light blue line? How come every single time it loses the light blue line and keeps on going lower, right? So this is muscle memory. And over the course of time, you're going to start looking at different indexes and start looking at different studies and VWAP and all that stuff that everybody individually has a right and can trade at their own discretion. But the common denominator is still the same thing, right? The cheat code. Over the 50-day bullish, under the 50-day bearish. And again, if you start embracing technical analysis and you start falling in love with technical analysis, you're going to start seeing results that you're blown away. And again, it has nothing to do with the PS60 theory. And I'm obviously biased because I created it, but any way you trade, right? Any way you trade. I don't care what you trade. You'll start seeing the same thing. If the E-minis start building below the 50-day, like again, look at the spies, right? Look at the spies. Look what happened when they closed below the 50-day. They're building a base below the 50-day moving average. If you look at any random charts, you'll see exactly the same thing. I'm kind of reiterating and then reiterating to the last four or five days. You don't, if you're a bull, you don't want the market to start feeling comfortable below the 50-day or you are going to start seeing really, really aggressive price action over the next couple of months. And again, you don't need to, it's not going back to, oh, remember in 1927 that you started building below the 50-day moving average and look what happens. No, this is going back to April. This is going back to April and all the major indexes. And again, if you're okay with the reality of the potential, okay, we don't know what's going to happen. You think I have any idea where the market's going to go on Monday? The point is, I do know the longer we build a base, the higher probability every single day you're going to have a chance for price action to be on the sell side and the upside. All you need to do is look what happened on Friday, right? So we sold off basically for three, four days. Last week, we had a 4% decline in the Nasdaq 100. This week, if you look at the final towel, you got the Dow, the S&P down 3%. You have the Nasdaq down another 4%. And even when you had updates, right? You had a jobs number come in on Friday. It doesn't make a difference what they said. It doesn't make a difference what the chairman said on Fed minutes, whatever the case may be. Price action is price action. The closing price is the closing price. There is no such thing as overbought, oversold. The last print of the 4 o'clock close on Friday is Fair Valley. You can argue with Joe Blow at hotstockpigs.com all day long about buying or selling. The point is the proof is in the pudding. You'll see exactly what's going on. And you can see here even any type of positive reaction, initial positive reaction gets sold. Because the Nasdaq at some point was rallying, right? And they got stuffed right back into supply where they broke down off the 303 level, right? Remember where they broke down 303, 304? Look at Friday's highs. They rallied up to 303, 304, got rejected and closed at 295. This is exactly what's going to happen every single time until we reclaim the 50 day moving average. So if you do your homework, again, we have a lot of value going into this week to the downside. Obviously the only time I'll become bullish is if we reclaim the 50 day moving average on the Q's. Right now we're eight points away from that. So again, at least the value, at least your feasibility study going into the new week has to be on the sell side. Just because more of the channels are to the downside. Like I said, look how close Amazon is, look how close Apple is, look how close Tesla is. And if you look at the put buying for the last couple of days, even into strength when these stocks were coming, we saw even this week, we saw 250s coming in for this week. And this was a short week. And they weren't coming with $10,000. They were coming with a half a million, a million dollars worth of premium. They're betting, right? So they're betting on future events, but we're not guessing. We're waiting for the bottom of this channel here to confirm. We're waiting for the bottom of the channel here on Amazon to confirm. Same thing with Apple as well. Again, they can't go lower without confirming the 50 day moving average. But again, our research is saying based on multiple examples we've been giving throughout the whole week, it's a big deal, right? It's definitely a big deal, especially if you trade the technology names. So if you go through your charts this weekend, guys, look for names that are sitting on the 50 day that tested it last week that needs to be confirmed or have their first close below the 50 day moving average. Because if those stocks continue to confirm those channels, all you're going to do is just have a lot of airspace back to the downside. Again, for me, it's a non-bias way of trading. Again, for me, it doesn't make a difference. The market gets above the 50, where bull bias gets below 50, where bear bias, and that's the name of the game. It's trading what's in front of you. It's trading the market you have, not the market you want. I don't know where Apple is going to be in three years. Do you know where Apple is going to be in three years? Because if you know 100%, why don't we just stop trading altogether? Forget about the day-to-day, right? Turn off your machines, do something else, create something that you love to do and wait five years to see where we are. We're not in the guessing business. We're trying to take it day by day. And if the price action tells us we're wrong, then we're wrong. But at least, again, be prepared. That's all we can do is ask ourselves as traders. Put in the time, be prepared, look at the market from a technical view, not a personal belief, want or need or wish type of point of view and make the most out of the research that we have, not the market that we want, and you'll stay very, very upright. And that's the name of the game, taking it day by day and playing it by ear based on how technicals close on the 4 p.m. so that you can do your research and get ready for the day after. So most important thing, guys, again, if you are a new trader, your first three to five years is super-duper important. Think of it as a doctor, right? You go to four years of school, four years of college, four years of what? Medical school, another three years of residency. So you're doing what? 11 years before you can call yourself a doctor. And guess what? You're still not a doctor, right? It took me 12 years. I'm going on my 24th year now. It took me 12 years to finally get comfortable in my own skin. So again, don't put pressure on yourself, okay? Your first three to five years is all about gathering as much good information as possible. As the faster you can get rid of that whole social media mentality of the hot stock and the hot trader, you're the rock star, okay? At this day of age, you should not be looking for alerts. What planet are you in? Look how much information we have in front of us, okay? It's all in the charts. You don't need anybody, okay? You don't need anybody. It's all in front of the charts. If you want something to kind of hold on to, technical analysis, that's it, right? I don't care again. I don't care how you trade, what you trade. The point is it's all in the charts. And in the first three to five years, if your information, especially that you're getting exposed from social media is one plus one equals six, I don't care how long you're trading. If you're trading on bad information, you're trading on bad information, and you continue to run on the hamster wheel. So put in the work, guys, believe in yourself. Most important part is trust technical analysis. Again, there's a whole world out there that you can look to. And I know everybody has your favorite social media celebrity. It's all about the work. It's all about believing yourself and looking at the charts and believing in the data, right? Believing in the raw data and saying to yourself, what's the probability, right? What's the probability that the trend continues below these channels? What's the trend that continues above these channels? And right now, we are below. We continue to build below, whether you trade small caps, mid caps, large caps, whatever it is, your favorite, right? Your favorite course of action, your favorite, you know, indexes to kind of trade off of guidance is telling you where the bill is starting to take place, okay? It has nothing to do with me. It has nothing to do with you. It has to do with the reality. So guys, God bless, again, for all you guys who would like to at least check out what these pivots are all about. Again, you have a couple of days to kind of take advantage of it until we get into the winter holiday season. Guys, God bless. I wish everybody the best. I hope everybody finds with what they're looking for in life, in trading, and with God's help, I'll see you all on Tuesday. Take care. Have a great remainder of your weekend.