 So, one of the first topics I've really wanted to cover was Jackson Hole and what it is and what really why is it, all eyes are on it and simply I guess if you guys have seen, if you've read up on it or you've been trading for any length of time, it's generally to do with the Fed's policy going forward, right? So, they set out what they think, their ideas on the economy, stock market, tapering, QE, all manner of I guess, monetary policy and what will affect their monetary policy going forward, right? Whether they're going to hike hold cut rates, etc. and what they think on really important topics. So, Jackson Hole is something that the financial institutions, everyone who understands fundamentals really is interested in. So, one of the things that was quite interesting was that I think it was Samaeeta, welcome Ken and, yeah, and Daddy as well. One of the things that I think Samaeeta had sent was a chart which details the Jackson Hole, more than me, what has happened at each Jackson Hole event, whether prices have gone down or to the upside, etc. Now, I'm not sure whether this was Samaeeta's intention or if he was just posting it because it was something just interesting to kind of look at and possibly maybe derive some sort of pattern, right? Some sort of thing where it's like, okay, well, we know that maybe over the past, what's that? One, two, three, four, five, six. Jackson Hole, well, out of six, out of nine, I guess, have led to potential up movements, yeah, and maybe some have led to down movements because that's what I'm getting from here, right? So, Jackson Hole maybe was read, kind of went to the downside, etc., etc. So, but what I would caution against is taking meaning from price and the reason why in the short term, and as you guys know, is that short term can be very random. Eventually, we will always see what the market had intended. And here's an example of this matter of fact, and I want to show you something. Does anyone remember what was happening last year, right? Last year during Jackson Hole? Does anyone remember the environment that we were in last year and what was happening? So, first of all, we had an election. Yeah, we had the election going on. Did anyone remember? Was anyone trading around that time? COVID election, yeah, actually, I'm trying to scroll up to the April 12th, I've got a lot of scrolling to do. I'm trying to go back to August around that time, just to remind people what was going on. And really the point I'm trying to make, oh, you was trading, we're not paying attention to fundamentals, yeah, well, this is going to be a nice eye-opener for everybody, because I remember this as clear as day. And also as well, if you go back to, in fact, my YouTube channel, let me just do it off screen one second. I'm just going to open up my YouTube channel. And I did a video about this, a free video last year, one second. Let me just go to my channel. And you can have a look, videos, it's all there. It's all there for everybody. Proof is all there. Where was it now? Here we go. Can you guys see this screen? Oh, sorry. Can you guys see this screen? Yeah, brilliant. Right, if you go back to Jackson Hole, you can go back to Jackson Hole Symposium, you know, Forex FOMO trade. I had a, there was a trade idea that we had done in the group. It wasn't necessarily for YouTube, although I put it out on YouTube afterwards, but you've got this one as well. So it says Forex Fundamental Analysis, what the federal reserve inflation target means for the US dollar, right? And ultimately, what they announced at Jackson Hole was F-A-I-T. And remember what that is? Remember what that stands for? Remember that? What does that stand for? What did that stand for? That's it. That's it, Ken. Federal average inflation target. Yeah, that's what they announced here. And in this video, I pretty much break that down. Yeah, a lot of people get caught up in all the technical stuff, right? But it's not really about the technicals. It's about the forward guidance of what the federal reserve are going to do. Now, they were the first central bank to really introduce this federal average inflation target. Now, what does that mean? Central banks have a 2% target inflation target. Yeah. Now, what the federal reserve are going to do was they were going to say, well, instead of looking to high crates when inflation gets to 2%, what they were looking for was overshoot, right? Meaning that they wanted the average inflation to be above, to be around 2% and above, yeah, rather than it just being reaching 2% on the next data point, right? So what that allowed them to do was it allowed them breathing room to not have to high crates prematurely because if the economy is still struggling with COVID and the recovery, yeah, but inflation is at 2%, yeah, and they high crates too soon, then it hurts GDP, yeah. So what they were willing to do was they wanted an average inflation target rather than, I guess, a static one, yeah. So that allowed them to enable right for doing it, right? Because now, look what's happened. Inflation is at something like 5% or something like that, but they don't necessarily have to high crates anytime soon. Well, they say anytime soon, but they're looking to high crates, but not as soon as they would had they had not introduced this average inflation target. So it allowed them breathing room to get the economy going, yeah, and sustained growth without hurting the economy potentially by hiking rates. That was what they had said, yeah. So with that being said, we could then make adjustments, right? We could then say, okay, well, what does this mean for our trades? Now, we were short at the time, we were short dollars and long euros, right? And I'm going to get there in a second and keep doing this. And it was for a number of reasons, all right? So they were basically pushing, so what they would ultimately doing was they were pushing rate hikes further along, yeah. So rather than if they reached, you know, their 2% target in maybe 2021 at the beginning of 2021, yeah, then they would have to add hiked rates then because all they've been forced to, right? But because they said it was average inflation, they could allow for, you know, maybe some, you know, you know, if inflation was maybe 2.5, 2.8, for example, yeah, but the average, yeah, let's say, for example, they get the last 5, 10 readings, but let's say the average was like maybe 1.7, yeah. It means that they can allow for inflation overshoot, yeah, but looking at the average, the average might be lower than the last, probably would be lower than the last, you know, readings. So it basically allowed them to push hiking interest rates into maybe 2022, potentially 2023. Does that make sense to everybody? They could hike, they could afford to hike rates later rather than sooner because what they didn't want was what? An expensive currency, you know, they don't want an expensive currency in a recession, you know, they don't want an expensive currency in a recession and all this as well, all these guys, all this, if you go to the test, yeah, if you haven't clicked on this short course and test course, right, it's all here, yeah. This is the reason why it's really important that you do this, yeah, you do this because this will tell you, yeah, this will tell you everything that I'm telling you, right. If you understand this, then you would have understood basically what was happening, hence the reason why you would go short because no other central banks at the time, yeah, we're doing that, right? So every other central bank was saying, all right, then we're going to hike rates at, you know, at 2%. Yeah, that was the magic number, whereas the Fed was saying, well, no, we're not going to hike rates at 2%, right? When it reaches 2%, we're going to write high rates after, you know, we're going to look at the average. So it put them way from hiking rates, it put them on the back burner, whereas other central banks were forced to potentially, unless they changed their monetary policy, they were forced to hike or maybe hike around that 2%, so they would have been hiking sooner than the Federal Reserve, yeah? So it kept the dollar weaker for longer, yeah, meaning that we were basically looking for short trades and I'm going to continue to just go to the dollar, right? Because I do want to provide proof of this. It's not just, you know, me talking and hindsight bias, right? So we're in, let's say, June, July, July, let's look at August, right? So July, August, right? So let's look at some of the headlines. US economy recovery is stalling and it may get worse, dollar to fall quite a bit in the coming months, this is 27th of July, US dollars sell off now looking overdone because it was selling off, right? There was a sell off and again, if you go to here, right, the dollar, Dow Jones dollar index, right, was selling off, one second, let me just get a nice pen, so Dow Jones dollar index was looking to sell off, right? It was going down into Jackson Hole 2020, which is the end of August, right? So we had mountain risks to the recovery. So although inflation was potentially on the up and up, there were concerns that their recovery wasn't quite there yet, yeah? So Goldman warns the dollar's grip on global markets might be over. We're talking about, Mark was talking about, you know, the 2020 of a gold, for example, but let's get closer to Jackson Hole, right? So there's a lot of short trades, you know, here's why the euro is appreciating against the dollar, euro strength, dollar weakness has further to go, Goldman and they will write, you know, they will write about that. You know, market flocks to the euro and if you go to the euro dollar, you'll see that as well. What else was there? So dollar holds its ground, okay, while stimulus talks, hedge fund, warm crowded dollars, short risk of backfiring, yeah, because everybody was pretty much getting short on the dollar because they understood the economics behind it, right? They understood the fundamentals behind it because we were short dollars, right, at the time. Dollar loses ground amid doubts of the stimulus, you know, there's momentum behind the dollar weakness, rebel bank. So you could see, yeah, you could see all of the comments and the analysis was really looking for shorting dollars, right? So global challenge for dollars crown has euro set for more gains, yeah. So hedge funds are now betting on another jump to one, two, five after the US elections, yeah, Goldman Sachs Group, so that was weak dollar, stronger euro, Fed policy shift raises heat on the ECB. And what that was basically, all that was, was basically the fact that by weakening the dollar, yeah, it puts pressure on the European central bank because remember, all central banks wanted a weaker currency for a recovery. And the dollar was winning what was known as the currency war at the time because the currency war is competitive devaluation. So the dollar was winning the devaluation war and the currency war, which was putting pressure on the ECB, right? So it raises the heat on the ECB, yeah. So we had, again, we can continue on dollar US dollar to move another 15% lower, said Pimco's, Pimco's Freelaces, yeah, this is in September. So red Fed, here we go. So basically everything that I was just literally just saying in this, yeah, everything I was saying about this, about them raising rates later, yeah, this was the narrative at the time, yeah. Forbes, Fed won't raise rates until 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts, of course, you know, things change, but the point being is that at the time, yeah, they were pushing their rates and where they had to potentially high crates, they were the bank that were looking to high crates lost because of their federal average inflation target, yeah. So here we go, think ING, FX, the dollar bear trend has only just begun, right? So all of this at the time, yeah, how much evidence do technical analysis traders need to be convinced that it's not technical analysis that drives price in the medium to long term, yeah. We were getting short, so at Jackson Hole, this is where they announced FAIT, yeah, this is where they announced that. And I said to everybody in the group, short dollars, short dollars, short dollars at the time. And of course, in the short term, in the short term, prices didn't go down immediately, right? Because as we know, there is, I guess, a liquidity phase, right? An accumulation, distribution, wherever you want to call it, it's where banks can position themselves in a ranging market, right? They can afford to, you know, unload their, you know, get short more in the dollar and disguise their buying and selling in ranging markets. And this is what happened. And then when they were ready to push the market down, or, you know, when the data supported the narrative and they thought the dollar was expensive here, that's basically what happened. But in the short term, yeah, price doesn't necessarily react in the way that it does. In fact, it probably went higher, do you know what I mean? Drawing traders to do what? Long at where they were looking to sell. Because traders generally will follow price action in the short term, where you have to understand that everybody was short on the dollar, we'll say everybody. But do you know what I mean? The articles, the majority of the articles, and I'm sure there were articles at the time that were probably saying, do you know what, be careful, you know, we're going long dollars or whatever. But the overall majority of sentiment was short dollar. Yeah, short dollar, short dollar, short dollar. That's pretty much what we were looking at at the time. So going back to understanding Jackson Hole, yeah, and what particularly may happen to, you know, a Jackson Hole and trying to derive, you know, price, and what price may do, or the probabilities of price just by looking at price action is just this 50-50 coin flip, right? It might go up, it might go down. Who knows? What we want to do, morning, Mr. Diligent, good morning, what we want to do as fundamental traders is understand the bigger picture. It's not just about Jackson Hole, it's about what it is to a certain extent. But what I'm saying is, is that where is the trend as far as what do we understand fundamentally that the Fed is more likely to say, can anyone give me a potential if you've been following the dollar? What do you think that the Federal Reserve are likely to do with the dollar at the moment? Ken says, hold taper in November, Mr. Diligent says, hold, signs of taper by September, hints of tapering, that's exactly it, guys. It's tapering, right? It's tapering. And tapering is what? Positive, yeah, for the dollar, yeah. So from that perspective, yeah, you could look at the fact that there was one, two, three, four, five, six potential, you know, out of nine, yeah, but that has nothing to do with what is going on today. Yeah, in this day in history, they're already talking about tapering. Yeah. And so as long as the data supports the narrative, you should expect the probabilities against not certainties, no one knows, nobody can predict the future. This is a probabilistic game, right? But the point being is this, is we have more probability that the dollar will probably move to the upside than it would to the downside. Even if it does in the short term, remember, even if it does in the short term, it doesn't matter. Yeah, it's understanding because you can't, you cannot, you know, price in the short term is an illusion, but it will reveal itself in the long term in the same way that price probably stayed around this ranging market for, you know, a month or two before going to the downside. The same thing might happen here, but overall, you probably will see, and again, probably we'll see in as long as the data supports the narrative is more dollar upside. The more that the Fed are talking about tapering, and you see positive dollar, you know, economic growth, et cetera, and risk, you know, remains more on than off, then you should see the dollar move to the upside. Yeah. So that's pretty much where we are. And I thought it was really interesting, you know, this whole, you know, this, this chart as well, because I've seen over the years, I've seen these charts and, you know, in general, you know, they tend to a lot of, you know, people tend to try to derive and make, and I'm not saying that some I was or anyone does. And if you do, you know, you really shouldn't, it's not the most reliable way, the most reliable way is to understand what's going on in the here and now, and actually let the central bankers tell you what is potentially going to happen, because they're the smartest guys in the room. And those are the guys that will drive and looking to drive price either to the upside and also as well, if, and here's a little, here's a little, you know, question for you guys. If inflation is at 5%, yeah, what do the central bank, yeah, what do the central bank have to do, appreciate or depreciate their currency to drive inflation down? Eric says appreciate. Ken, I'll get back to your question, your comment in a sec. So to drive inflation back to their 2% target, because ultimately they have a 2% target. Yeah. What do the central bank have to do that they have to appreciate or depreciate their currency? Eric says appreciate. Mr. Diligent says holds and so no, no, no. So Mr. Diligent, what's if right now, inflation is at 5%. Yeah. It's a 5%. What should the central bank do to or try to do to get inflation back down to 2%? Do they need to appreciate the currency or they need to try to depreciate the currency? One or the other? So Eric says appreciate. Ken says hike. And what is like, I know, I know what you know what hike is, Ken. So we were saying is appreciate Mr. Diligent's hike interest rate yet. So they need to appreciate the currency because that's what hiking is, right? If you're raising interest rates, yeah, from two to three to four, whatever it is, yeah, and that's the direction of travel for interest rates, yeah, you're appreciating, you're attempting to appreciate the currency, which means then you're going to do what? Because inflation is devaluation. So the higher inflation goes is the more devalued the currency is. So you need to try to appreciate the currency to bring it back down to 2%. So it makes sense. It makes all the sense in the world, yeah, for them to and even if they don't remember this as well, guys, even if they don't hike rates, the fact that they're talking up the dollar, right? They need to try and talk up the dollar to bring inflation down, right? So you've got all of this logic, all of this logic, yeah, understanding where price may potentially go because they don't want to talk down the dollar because if they talk down the dollar, what do you think happens to inflation? What happens to inflation? There you go. It goes higher, it goes way above their 2%, it goes into the 6%, there you go. And they don't want that. So they have to at least start talking, jaw-boning, I guess is what it's called, yeah? So they have to at least talk it, the dollar and convince the market that they're going to either taper or hike rates because inflation is beyond their 2% target, right? So you've got all of this behind you. So why on earth, why on earth is anyone getting short on the dollar? Why would you get short on the dollar for the medium to long term? Of course, you can always do it in the short term and take advantage of sentiment, but the par for least resistance is most likely to the upside because remember the central banks are mandated, mandate, right? They must, right? They must. Anyone know what mandate means? They must, yeah? Get inflation to this in any which way they should. They can, whether it's talking, whether it's actual action, this is what they must do. Ken says, yeah, exactly. There isn't because we always have to keep in mind that this is a probabilities game, a probabilities game, right? No one knows for sure, but these are the trade ideas that we have. We can develop these trade ideas beforehand and if we know the rules to the game, this, yeah, is the rules to the game. This is the rules to the trading game. I really don't think traders take that seriously or they don't really understand that they think, oh, it's just a test and that's it. Do you know what I mean? Oh, I know it and that's it. No, this is the rules to the game. If you don't internalize all of this, yeah, and really understand it, you're always going to be thinking and scratching your head as to why. I mean, and there are head scratching moments, right? There are things where it's not clear, it's fine. But in general, this is what tends to happen. One second. I'm going to go back to Ken's comments. Ken said, you saw this chart, but you looked at it and said fundamentals were different at all those times. Okay, so you know what? I can't even remember what the fundamentals were back in 2019, 2018. I'm sure, you know, again, eventually, and sometimes as well, it's sometimes it's not clear, right? Sometimes it's clear. And then we're like, okay, there's a clear direction. Sometimes the Jackson Hole, you know, the Federal Reserve might come out and it might be mixed, they might be like, hmm, well, what does that mean? You know, and that's okay, right? We're never going to know what it means every single year because we're in different economic environments, right? And there were times when it's definitely, you know, they're looking, you know, they're going to be very dovish, for example, are we going to be very hawkish, very dovish, or a mixture, or just say, you know what, we don't know what's going on. Yeah. But at the end of the day, it's about understanding where the economy is, where inflation is, and then what the central bank are probably most likely forced to do. So Lawrence says that he thinks, he says, I think this time they have the Fed have to be cautious because the next normal payrolls is also coming in September and they cannot decide to do it until data supports exactly. And they definitely understand this, the data needs to support the narrative, right? But they also have a problem of that 5%. Yeah. So hopefully, yeah, then again, and this is why talking up the dollar without actually having to high crates or, you know, or taper anytime soon is the answer, right? This is what they do. So if, for example, they come out and they're very hawkish, they're talking about tapering, tapering, tapering. The market is going to do the job for them, right? The market is going to basically push prices higher, driving down inflation. And then maybe, you know, by the time they do have to look to potentially, you know, high crates, they might not even have to high crates because they've got inflation at their 2% target and they can leave interest rates at 0.25, which benefits everybody, right? That's, you know, that's obviously they're thinking as well. It's not, we shouldn't really think about this as far as setting, you know, the fact has to, you know, actualize and actually has to become for this to materialize. It's all based off of the rumor. This is how we make money in forex on fundamentals. It's all about the rumor. By the time the fact comes out, yeah, the money's already been made. So we're always going to be one or two steps ahead, but we can only be one or two steps ahead if we understand all of this. Yeah, you're not going to be one, two steps ahead just by looking at support and resistance, supply and demand zones and technical analysis. You can't. You can't. I would say it's impossible, but you would never derive what is going on from the Fed from just looking at this chart. You couldn't. It's literally just a guessing game. It's a 50-50 coin flip as to where prices are going to go to the upside or downside if you're just looking at, you know, price action. But what we do, we have an edge, right? And this is our edge. All understanding this is our edge. This makes it maybe 60-40 or 70-30 or 80-20 in our favor. And it's not to say that, obviously, you know, we can't lose trades. Of course we can. But the point being is that we want to get the probabilities. Every single edge we possibly can in our favor. That's what we need to do. And we have a fundamental edge. We understand the rules to the game. And we have, you know, our technical edges when it comes to understanding which way we should be trading, right? We're just looking for now demand zones, right? Demand zones. And then we obviously look to buy the dollar against the weakest currencies like, you know, the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, et cetera. But you're right. You're right, Lawrence. They're obviously very cautious as well. Yeah, they don't want to necessarily have to do anything. So that's why I think, you know, obviously, they're not going to make any decisions at Jackson Hole, but they will talk. They will communicate it to the market. And then the market will say, all right, we believe you, Fed. We believe you, Jerome Powell. And then they will either, you know, push the market in the direction where they think the Fed may want to hydrate. So Ken says, everything the Fed is looking for to start to taper is appearing, but we are still in an uneasy time. So they will say we need more time. Yep. So a bit more data. But to keep the dollar going higher, they are going to give us more time around when they might taper. Absolutely. Absolutely. So they're going to, they just got to be cautious. Absolutely what you said and what Lawrence says, because there's no, there's no certainty, right? There is, you know, the virus, et cetera. And if they do and the market interprets it that way, then you've got to just say to yourself, okay, well, the dollar are better. Who are the dollar better than they're in a better position? Right? Because it was always said to me, you know, by, by, you know, my mental mark was like, who's the dog with the least fleas? Right? It's definitely not the dollar. It's definitely not the US economy. Yeah. They're in a much better space than, for example, Europe, who are very, who are quite dovish on their central, on their policies at the moment. And that's the reason why you've seen the Euro dollar do this. Do you know what I mean? Over, since, you know, over the past few months. So although there's, there's not the most, the most certainty in the world, they're in a better position than a lot of other countries. Anyone got any questions on that? Because I've got a, I've probably got another maybe half an hour. I want to start to get into some other things. So any questions on that, guys?