 Hello, I'm Amis the Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two eastern standard time also great newsletter mastering probability Now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter folks in a great time to get it because we have a traders market There's no doubt about that man come over to our website at TFN You go around the newsletters You're gonna see mastering probability on the right-hand side. You just hit subscribe You can get mastering probability for one month for hundred and forty nine dollars You get it for six months for 695 which is a savings of 199 dollars and you get it for a year folks You're 1195 which is a savings of 593 dollars of 33 percent Steve Rhodes, what's going on? Well, just shifting them my sports gears from football though We've got a good game coming up next weekend. Let's hope to do things like hockey and in the Olympics I don't if you've watched watched any of it I've I've I've been watching a little bit in the evenings like about 10 o'clock in Yes, if I'm up in and what I saw the first couple of days was the snowboarding women snowboarding I saw that. Is that amazing? It is amazing man Can you imagine going down those hills and and doing what they do? No, and you know, I snowboarded But I never made it by the bunny slope When you're snowboarding on a bunny slope, let me tell you you're going fast. Yeah, I have no idea how they do that Yeah, yeah just really hurts because you follow so many times. Yeah It's a man and some of these women when they've when they have fallen, you know, they've got such flexibility Yeah, they're able to pop back up. It's amazing. I know man. Yeah, I mean you're thinking they'd be broken bones all over the place But they've got such flexibility. So I've really enjoyed watching that. How about the you're talking about that How about the the losers? Yes, right? That's another amazing a sport. Yeah, there's a mind blow You know, you know what the cool thing is we haven't made for the next two weeks When it's just so you know folks what you can listen to a six o'clock in the morning six o'clock at night It doesn't matter. It's on two stations though Yeah, just go down further and this it's almost on 24 hours a day, which is really dynamite So yeah, it is like when we're watching to lose my wife said to me. She said So what do you think those people are thinking about I said what I'd be thinking about is staying on that board Not and that's flipping over and sure enough about 30 seconds later One of the guys lost it was flying into and that's I think that's actually more dangerous on the lose track Flipping over because there's no way to stop. Oh for sure. I didn't see that. That's yeah. Yeah, luckily the guy was okay But you know that I don't I don't think you get me on a lose. No, or don't it or on a Did it that would have been great. I would have stayed on it all day, but guess what that you know We want to live for a while here, man Yes, we do. Yes, we do. So let's get to the markets out here We always typically start just the refresher. Hey, where we at in the seasonal pattern out here So we know that the Dow typically tops folks in January early January and then bottoms at the end of January and this year Here we've got the Dow topping on January 5th and so far the bottom is on January 24th So the seasonal pattern is oh, it's not even be showing your hold on a minute here. Give me a moment. Sorry about that That's all right. I'm showing the wrong screen Do that on occasion but in any event, so I'll just go back real quickly folks Here's a seasonal pattern. Yeah, there we go And then you've got the January 5th top the January 24th bottom out there now Well, we really start taking a look at so what I want to do here Something different than what we've done in the past is just really take a look at some of this or the sectors inside the S&P 500 and some of the top-weighted instruments that make up the S&P the Nasdaq in the Dow and what I'm doing here is giving a bigger picture So these are annual charts yearly charts that we're taking a look at and this is the one key thing that Everybody that's listening to us. You don't have to be a technician You just have to have access to a charting application And what I can assure you is that when you're taking a look at an instrument if price is trading above the prior year's high So 2021 is high Yes, you're in a bullish or a breakout mode and if you're not trading above that you've got something else that's going on That's especially important for us right now. So here you've got the S&P in the upper left hand corner We can see that it's trading below last year's high. So too is the XLK. So too is the health care sector So too is the consumer discretionary sector now the XLF This is interesting if the XLF can close above 4086. It's going to be in breakout mode So it's got some possibility and potential But if we go down one level lower and you were talking about the energy sector earlier with your pride in your primary segment here That is in full-out breakout mode now people didn't necessarily need me to tell them that But it is good to have the visual to really see what's going on So the the two hot sectors right now inside the S&P as the energy sector and potentially the financial sector Otherwise everything else is trading below 2021 side and says be careful be cautious out there That's good to know man. I remember seeing this last year. I remember the same deal, which is so cool Go ahead Steve. That's this is cool man. Yeah, it isn't it because it's something easy for everybody That's listening to us to follow along You know we start talking a to b equal CD oscillator and changeline all these things and it can confuse people But this one simple now here Tom This is a set of charts looking at the futures contracts out here So in the upper left-hand side, we've got the US dollar index if it starts trading above 96 94 It's going to be in breakout mode and I'm going to go all the way over on the right-hand side in the center here You've got the tenured treasury note now You already know this but now that people can see this it's trading below last year's low Folks that's very bearish as long as that condition remains out there. That is a bearish Pattern if we look at go down to the lower line out here, we'll see that rice is breaking out So we've got rice that's going up in price. We've got soybeans that's getting ready to take out this 15 86 40 level That's going to be in full-out breakout mode You've got light sweet crude in the upper left out here 85 38 as long as price remains above that It's both now what's helpful about this for folks is to try to take a look at those things that are bullish Those of you that want long trades energy trades things of that sort You now know where to focus your time in the futures market if you're looking at commodities rice and soybeans are really important to Be watching and if you're long on a tenured treasury Right now you you really need to have a good bottom pop Tom because you're trading below last year's low That is not a good thing if we shift over here to the top holdings inside the NDX 100 You got Apple leading the way Microsoft but you can see each of these are trading below last year's high So they all suggest to be very careful out here now Facebook Facebook's got some real problems because it's trading below 244 61 so this could be in Facebook Tom This is the first year since it's been introduced from since it's IPO This is the first year price has even been able to get below the prior year's low Wow, so this is telling us there's some really significant issues going on inside of Facebook If we look at the Dow in the top 10 hole or the top holdings out here That shows no breakouts, but it does show that Honeywell, which is the three four eight the 11th weighted Instrument inside of the Dow that is trading below last year's low 195 so anybody that has it as long-term holding you should really take you should really watch that 1955 level and then finally the S&P 500 here's the top 12 instruments inside this was interesting I didn't realize this till I put together this chart The only stock that's breaking out is Berkshire Hathaway Wow, which typically follows the S&P 500, but it does not appear to be following the S&P 500 this year So the weighted underline instruments They all suggest caution and so too do the yearly charts and you and I've talked about this many of the yearly charts Have these TD nine count tops and that's where we can definitely see price pull back in so far That's what we have seen unfold Shorter term what I want people to realize is that we should see a bounce The reason we should see a bounce is on a weekly basis the Russell 2000 That's a very right-hand corner panel Yeah, formed at Gartley buy pattern and this little oscillator and change line change colors So we should see this move up to the 2140 level. How are we gonna know if we're gonna see this rally folks? Well, I'll just take a look at them just moving here to the futures contract. There's these descending trend lines Tom, I think those are the real targets whether we get an A to B equal seeding to the upside Well, it has to take out those swing points But right now the Russell 2000 is the first one to test in trend lines So everybody's deep an eye on the Russell and foot what an awesome updates deep and folks It's really easy to get his newsletter come over to our website the TF and in get that master in probability It's gonna help you tremendously man. It just helped me tremendously. Have a great one. Have a safe one Steve. Thanks you too