 We've got ourselves a little dilemma for tonight in MLB DFS because there is a pitcher, Lance Lynn, coming off an injury who is $5,500 on Fandall and facing the Tigers and stretched out enough where I think he'll be going 90 plus pitches for tonight. But also we've got really good guys outside of that. Sandy Alcantara, Aaron Nola, Alec Minoah all in spots where I'd be willing to use them. The question is, can we trust Lynn enough coming off that injury to use him over these other really good guys? And I think I have my personal answer, but it's a lot to break down. We're gonna break down what information you need to make that decision for yourself and hopefully put you down the right path towards winning some money for tonight in MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Here to break down a Monday's tenant game at Main Slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today. The only weather note is not a rain one. It is in St. Louis for the Cardinals and the Pirates. Not rain, but it is extremely hot. First pitch temperature is projected at 98 degrees. That is absolutely a bump up to batters in that game. Problem is not really sure how to handle the two offense. We'll talk about that later on, but definitely give a boost up to batters in St. Louis for Cardinals and Pirates due to how warm it is there for today. We'll break down the pitching preview and break down that key dilemma with Lance Lynn in just one second. But first the NBA Finals are in full swing and so is your chances were big at Fandall Sportsbook. Throughout the NBA Finals, Fandall is giving new customers $200 in free bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet that the money line, point spread, player props and so much more. Plus you can combine your bets for an even bigger payday with the same game parlay. You haven't tried Fandall. Now is the perfect time to give it a shot because the only thing sweeter than watching the Finals is cashing in on all the action. Make every game feel like game seven with Fandall Sportsbook. Fandall, official partner of the NBA, disclaimer must be 21 plus in select states. First online real money wager of at least $5. $10 first deposits are required. Bonus issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after a seat. See full terms at fandall.com slash sportsbook. Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandall.com slash RG and Arizona 1-800-NEXT-DAP or text NEXT-EPTIFIED 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 Hope NY or text HOPE NY in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-889-9789 or in West Virginia 1-800-GAMBLER.net. Pitching preview for this Monday main slate, Sandy Alcantara is the highest salary pitcher on Fandall checking in at 11-3 with Alec Minoa at 10-8. Aranola facing Alcantara is 10-2. Eudarmish revenge game against the Cubs at 97. Josiah Gray is 92. Meryl Kelly checks in at 91 with Ian Anderson, Christian Javier, Alex Wood, Chris Flexin, Brady Singer and Taylor Hearn as the others $8,000 are higher. Now we will discuss Lit because I think that he is worth discussing for today and totally okay with using him, but I don't want him to be my highest exposure pitcher. I want my two highest exposure pitchers to be in the exact same game. Aranola versus Sandy Alcantara. I'm gonna favor Nola, so I'll talk about him first and I'll get to Alcantara next and then we'll talk about Lance Lynn as the value play for today. Nola obviously is facing Alcantara is facing the Marlins and they're pretty solid offense, but not a low strike out one, which means they're not an offense made to avoid to make DFS perspective. And Nola is pitching really well right now. He through eight shutout innings last week and that came on the road. We've seen Nola struggle on the road in the past. Back at home now, not that he needs that boost to begin with because for the full season, Nola has a 2.74 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rate. Both of those are the best marks on the entire slate. 3.4% walk rate, break second. The batting ball data for Nola is not as elite now as it was at the beginning of the year, but as he showed last week, that is not impacting his upside. The strikeouts are a matter and he's gone eight plus innings twice in the past three starts. He had 10 strikeouts in one of those. So, I love his upside. I will be highest on Nola among everybody on the slate. I will have more Nola tonight than I have Lance Lynn because I'm more convinced he can get me eight innings, eight strikeouts than I can with Lynn. So to me, Nola is worth that high salary at 10-2 for tonight. Now, Alcantra's 11-3, that's pretty high, but I have Alcantra right behind Nola and in the exact same tierism. Alcantra has been great all season long, but he's been getting even better recently. His worst pitch, according to Baseball Savant, is the foreseen fastball. The Xwoba against that is 340. That's his only pitch with an Xwoba against it above 300. Well, we've seen Alcantra recognizes and he's throwing that pitch less now. Over the past six starts, the foreseen fastball usage for Alcantra is down to 22.7%. It was 30.9% before that and it's boosting Alcantra to an even higher level. In those six starts, we've seen Alcantra allow three total earned runs, which is absurd. He has finished nine innings twice in that span and he went eight and two others and has seven in all six starts. It is unreal how good Sandy Alcantra has been. He's getting this volume with good efficiency, a 2.89 skill interactive ERA, a 26% strikeout rate, very good bat at ball data and the Phillies not the world's worst matchup even if they're not a great one. Their WRC plus against right is 106 with a 23% strikeout rate. So that's why I'm willing to put Alcantra in Nola's tier despite a side salary, despite being on the road, despite facing the Phillies and despite having Lancelin as an alternative at a very low salary. The key reason I like Nola more is that he's at home. That's honestly it because I have Nola projected for 7.5 strikeouts. I've got Alcantra at 7.3. Everybody else is below 6.7. So for me at least, they're the clear top two pitchers of the night. They're in a tier of their own and I will handle them as such putting Nola a smidge above Alcantra. So to me it's Nola one, Alcantra two. I think Minoa is very much in play and we'll talk about him in things to watch. But first, let's talk about Lancelin because it is cheating a bit to have him at $5,500. You're gonna see a lot of chatter about him on Twitter for today which means he's likely to be popular and I would rather spend up than use him assuming that high popularity but I do think that I'm gonna use him. Realistically, I'm gonna use Lancelin for tonight. So let's talk about him at $5,500. This is the first start of the year for Lancelin but he is stretched out. He went 79 pitches in his final rehab starts and with how much of a tank that guy typically is from a pitch count perspective, I think it's fair to expect him to go more than 90. I haven't projected at exactly 90 but not shocked at all if he does go well beyond that. Lin did not pitch well in his rehab start. He let up seven earned runs in his final outing with not a lot of strikeouts. It's a question of how hard he was throwing down there and the match up here is so nice. Faced with the Tigers who have a 70 WRC plus against righties with an 0.99 ISO, they 24% strikeout rate. They are a truly hideous team. So I did really want to avoid Lin in this section just because I expect him to be very popular for tonight but the matchup is just so good. I have a low strikeout rate projection from a talent perspective in there for Lin because didn't do a whole lot. His rehab starts, he's older, stuff like that but even with that low projection even with his pitch count projection at 90 he still gets to 5.4 strikeouts. That's just like, it's just so many things working in his favor that it's hard to keep things low for him. For a guy who's salary is 55, 5.4 strikeouts is awesome. So I'd like to avoid him. I really would. I think he'd be smart to do so. And if you are playing single entry I think there is no shot you touch Lin in that format but realistically for multi entry, I'm gonna use him too good of a spot not to. I just would say it's wise to go elsewhere but knowing myself, knowing realistically I'm gonna use him. So for single entry about touching Lin I'm going NOLA or Alcantra there but for multi entry, yeah, you kind of gotta do it because there's not a whole lot of choice for today. So for me it's NOLA 1, Alcantra 2, Lin the value play and we'll talk about Minoa in Thanks to Watch. First though, let's go to stacks and talk about the Astros because I've unsuccessfully stacked the Astros a bunch recently which is very frustrating but I'm gonna give it a go once again tonight and I'm gonna hope for better results this time around. The Astros I faced in Taylor Hearn who's not a big strikeout guy, he has a 4.6 skill interactive ERA with a 20% strikeout rate which means he's letting up a healthy number of balls in play, 43% of those balls in play have been hard hit, 36% have been in the air. So it's not a huge fly ball rate but it's also he's not a big round ball guy is what I would say. And that combination of a low strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact has gotten Hearn it's in trouble. His ERA is 5.40, his expected ERA is 5.71 which does include some struggles against Houston this year. He's faced him twice and he let up four earned runs in both those. One of those was at home which is where he's at tonight and one of those was on the road. We've seen Hearn struggle beyond that too. So not in a great spot right now he has had issues against this specific lineup which helps my confidence in the Astros even though they have not been kind to me of late. The Astros to me are the number one stack of the day. And I think we need to view Jose Altuve as a main priority here. He has a 378 ISO against lefties this year. He has a 44% fly ball rate. A lot of hard contact last year. You know, you can look at the small sample against lefties this year but even last year a 176 ISO and you know what he brings to the table beyond that. So if you're looking at prioritization on this Astros team I would say Altuve one, Bregman two, probably looking at the lefties after that, honestly, even though it is a lefty I would go with Alvarez and Tucker at that point and then you can get to the value plays. And I think that's the key thing here with the Astros is if you want to get to Alcontra you can lean on Jerry Pena, you can lean on Yuli Gurriel, Jose Ciri, Chas McCormick whoever winds up playing you can be okay with those guys and feel fine about it. So they're easy to stack with Alcontra for today. I think that does make the Astros the number one stack. Number two, let's talk here about Josiah Gray. He's been getting better. He's led up just two earned runs in his past three starts but I still think we should stack the braves against him tonight. One reason to buy into Gray is his pitch mix because he's been using his forcing fastball less the past six starts, which is definitely a wise thing a very good thing for Gray because it is a truly awful pitch. And using it less has led to improvements because in that six start simple Gray has a 4.02 skill interactive ERA, strikeout rates 26%, that's awesome. That's actually, that's the same strikeout rate as Sandy Alcontra in his six start sample but Gray is lending up a ton of fly balls. He has a 51% fly ball rate in that time and that's okay against bad teams. It is less okay against team like the Braves. We did see Gray make two starts against the Rockies and the Reds. He held the Marlins in check and they're a pretty solid offense but the Dodgers and Astros torched him both of those games in Washington and he led up three home runs in both those games. So when Gray is facing good powerful offenses things can still go awry and he gets that for today a 176 ISO for the Braves against Reds a 40% fly ball rate. The Braves will strike out so it's not outrageous to give some thought to Gray as a pitcher but I do think the best move is to stack the Braves here and bank on the fly ball rate that Gray allows. I do wanna favor the two lefties within this stack I say to you I guess you could include Harris in there as well but the two lefties for tonight Olson and Alweez's which hitter those are the primary guys for me as far as where I wanna go here because Gray gets just a 19% ground ball rate when he's facing lefties. So Matt Olson top priority for me Ozzy Alweez has been improving recently he's $3,200 not totally opposed to Harris at 23 if you wanna go down there I think that's totally fine honestly he's gonna bat ninth but like you know he pretty good in triple A so I would say start with Olson and Alweez consider Harris if you want to and then get to the righties because two lefties I think do have a big edge against Gray versus what you get out of the righties. I think the next best stack is the Blue Jays they're facing Kyle Bradish which is a pretty good spot and honestly with their salaries you can make it work pretty easily so it may sound like a lot to stack the Astros Braves and the Blue Jays but all these teams have mid-range plays and some value plays to make things work so I think even if you're going Alcantara you can make it work with the Jays, Astros and Braves and if you go with Lynn you can just load up on the really good guys there so that's a positive as well. So the Blue Jays for me, the third ranked stack and Bradish is a lot similar to Gray where he has a lot of potential because he can strike outs but just letting up so much hard contact in the eight starts, Bradish has led up a 44% hard hit rate and that's really erased the good in his profile his ERA is 6.45 his expected ERA is 6.05 and it's happened even against some lesser teams the Blue Jays are not that they've been getting a lot better against righties they're healthier now than they were their WRC plus against righties is up to 105 and they don't strike out much which is a good thing against a guy like Bradish who can get some strike outs. So there is some risk here because Bradish gets strike outs similar to the Braves you know there is risk in that profile because the opposing pitcher can get strike outs but I still think it's worth that risk for all the hard contact as they trade off here. So the Blue Jays to me solid as a number three stack and the key guy to that stack is Taylor Scott Hernandez he has three home runs so far this year but which is super disappointing but his ISO the past two weeks is 244 he has a 51% hard hit rates he has eight barrels across a two week sample which is pretty nuts. So I think Taylor Scott is coming around he gives you great upside for just $2,700 I'm not sure I'll have a Blue Jays stack without Taylor Scott Hernandez for tonight he's just he's hitting the ball too hard right now I think eventually we'll see those dingers come and they could come in bunches so Taylor Scott Hernandez rock solid option of a Blue Jays stack for tonight. Let's stick with the Blue Jays move to things to watch and talk about Alec Minoa I do like him I'm just not as into his strikeout upside as that of Nola and Alcantara Minoa is projected for 5.6 strikeouts which is actually in line with Lynn Orioles not some pushover matchup so I'm not opposed to Minoa but I think I'd rank Lynn higher than Minoa that might be stupid but they also don't give Minoa the longest leash like he's gone a hundred I think once so far this year so I think it's to me Nola won Alcantara to Lynn 3 Minoa 4 and I might not get to Minoa within my player pool for tonight just because I want to have a lot of Nola and Alcantara not sure what to do with the Cardinals they've got amazing weather for hitting so I do want to stack them from that perspective but they're facing Mitch Keller who has struggled overall this year but he's added a sinker in his three outings ago he's got a sinker then and since that time he's held the Dodgers under a 20% hard hit rates his hard hit rate overall I think is around 23% pretty weird I will probably still stack the Cardinals just due to weather and do the fact that you know it's a small sample for Keller excelling but it is very possible he has found something with that pitch so just keep that in mind if you want to stack the Cardinals Keller's been doing some fun stuff recently so the success he has had might not be totally flukey I do think you can stack both sides the Twins and Mariners here Twins are facing Chris Flexon Mariners facing Chris Archer and both those guys have gotten some good results this year but the peripherals are rough on both as well they've got a lot of balls in play they've got a lot of fly balls so I think that having exposure to both these sides is the way to go I think that's me I'd rather commit to three pitchers building around Nola and Alcantra primarily and then diversify more of my stacks because the Twins and Mariners are both fully viable the Cardinals are viable too so I'm going to have a tight core pitcher diversify a bit more of my stacks and hope that I can just hit the right combination at some point within that four to nine let's finish up here with some Dinger calls and they were kind of telegraphed based on the effusive praise I had for these guys earlier on the boring one is Matt Olson just I think targeting lefties against Gray giving me number of fly balls he lets up probably going to be a good strategy for the long run Matt Olson to me the top play for Homers for today the fun one is Teoscar Hernandez I feel like he shouldn't count as fun because like I have such a positive view of Teoscar but again, free homerun so far this year he's $2,700 so I guess soon sounds like it's probably a good one to go with so the homerun calls for today Matt Olson and Teoscar Hernandez that is all that we have here for today on the solo shot once again get some thought to Lancelot get some thought to how you want to handle him assume he will be popular just because he was getting buzz on Twitter even last night so you're going to have to deal with that if you want to use him I'm still okay with it but I would try to have more exposure to Nola and Alcantra personally just because that's the way I want to play things do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast wherever you get your podcast because coming up later on today we're going to have a US Open PGA DFS preview podcast via myself and Brandon and Nola breaking down the top plays for this week in golf's third major of the year you can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandual Podcast Network at Fandual Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get you sad for Tuesday's slate this has been a solo shot right here on the Fandual Podcast Network