 Hello everyone and welcome to today's live stream. So today's a it's an it's an interesting choice to talk about Warren Buffett and what he brings a table, especially with what he and Charlie Munger have said in the past about Bitcoin the entire Crypto markets in general about how it's rat poison squared how it's never going to anything and just how it's just downright off What actually is but regardless of all those things When there is some great information and some great knowledge to pass down I will share it even though there's somebody who obviously hates Exactly what we were doing and what we're actually investing into so what I'm talking about is there was this great little snippet today And this is from Warren Buffett. He's given his Speach at one of the shareholder meetings and he talks about Strikes and how many you should take and how you should lean into different things and then also in the end It talks really about just how important it is to Just hold your ground because you don't have to take all this all the strikes that come at you And I thought it was it was a pretty good idea, especially right now with the alt coin season Heating up. I mean exponentially you cannot you cannot swing a dead cat without hitting a YouTube video about an alt coin Going to 100x and I think it's gonna get even worse as time goes on So I want you to put this in perspective from somebody who absolutely hates what you're Investing into so just take a listen to this about a minute 43. It's gonna make a lot of sense Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and In the science of hitting he's got a diagram shows him at the plate And he's got the strike zone divided into 77 squares each the size of a baseball And he says if I only swing it pitches in my sweet zone which he shows there And he has what his batting average would be which is 400 if he had to swing it low outside pitches But still in the in the strike zone his average would be 230 He said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch Now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was oh and two or one and two or so on Even if that ball was down where he was only gonna bat 230. He had to swing at it in investing There's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that man, you know, you name it any any stock general motors And I don't have to swing and nobody's gonna call me out on called strikes I only get a strike called if I swing at a pitch and miss so I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and Only when I see something I understand and when I like the price at which is selling then if I swing if I if I hit Find if I miss it It's a strike, but it's an enormously advantageous game And it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything You only have to have an opinion on a few things. In fact, I've told students If when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it And that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and You don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich, you know, four or five will probably do it over time That's it and it's gonna make a lot of sense Especially like the part where he said you don't have an opinion on everything like on this channel Like pretty much talk about the same thing over and over again to beat into people's heads And there's some different strategies that people will call out What about this this coin and that coin and I always tell the same thing like why don't invest into it? I don't know about it. So I'm not gonna really gonna comment on it and I think it's one of those one of those different pieces that People look at this and go, ah, you know, maybe just you know You need to know all these things that's going on the crypto space and everything that's going on You don't you don't I think it's it's a misnomer for people to say that you have to know every single thing That's going on. I think you just have to do what Warm buff it said which is if you understand what you're investing into and you're passionate about it And you want to take that swing then take that swing But it's not like you have to take a swing for every single one of there And the last thing I will say about this before we move on is When he talked about that punch card if you had an opportunity to invest in 20 things only in your life and One of those things, you know could be your business could be another business could be investing into your friend's business Or it could be investing in some hairpin idea that you may have or maybe it's something that you want to get into Like for real estate or for land or maybe precious metals or another type of company that that deals with mining Or maybe it's cryptos and digital assets and things like that But if you really think about it if you think about what's the best option for you Is it spreading everything around and do like a spray and pray type of strategy or is just saying you know what? I think I know what's going on here and whatever that project may be I you know, I've done my research and I feel really comfortable with doing this and I want to hold on to the long space I think the people with the convictions like a warm buff at the reason why they're so successful is that and You may notice that a lot of the people that have a lot of the wealth Not day trading not scalping They're just doing their due diligence and sticking around for the long haul and that's pretty much the secret So anyhow, I mentioned think about that in the comment section Then let's talk real quick about some things that are going on in the in the space itself And then we'll get into a little Q&A. It's gonna be a little bit quicker So we talked about some positive things, you know about so what you should I should take a look at? You need to know about these things are important So as far as like with Bitcoin the things that I get as far as like with El Salvador and moving into Argentina and a different Opportunities that are there. I always say the same thing. What about, you know, just basically buying things And everybody will say the same thing lightning lightning's the answer. It's the end all be all and it may be But this was a an article that made me pay attention. This was just today Lightning developers must wake up and fix security bugs not please the venture capitalist This is from a Bitcoin developer Antoine Riard Left the lightning network in October argues It's also at risk of becoming increasingly centralized and susceptible to single points of failure and censorship risks Here's what's happening and it's a it's pretty technical. I linked the description. You can check it out But this is what he says They the developers need to wake up Stop the sleepwalking go to the whiteboard design robust and sustainable fix in hand with other developers the base layer preserving the long-term Decentralization and openness of lightning We had also claimed that many lightning focused firms are compromising lightning's mission The sad fact being most of them are working for VC funded entities. Look, you gotta pay the bills, right? But sometimes it gets a little bit too a too centralized commercial entities of the same low time preference the long-term detriment of end users Centralized systems are great in the scale of efficiency. That's what we've done so far with the internet's work pretty well so far But the problem is you have a single point of failure and lower cost of user censorship fundamental risks I might want to hedge against a Bitcoiner. I'm not sure this is an interesting lightning future I don't wish to be associated being in charge of a kind of light network in the 5300 Bitcoin exposed There is little I can do to halt the hemorrhage without compromising the core values of censorship resistance and Permissionless lighting network. So I know we want lighting network to work And and we feel like it could be the best thing as far as like a lit layer to and then for For payments and things like that, but there is the negative side of it But for every, you know positive I mean negative is a positive as well And this is a rhetorical believes another developer who says lightning is the best solution, but it's not good enough we need to actually improve it and Then we've got Robin Linus says don't get me wrong lightning is great always still amazed when using it the point is that it can't scale enough and Arc is not a competitor, but more of an add-on gives you all the advantage of cashew without requiring trust Only is covenants and then it goes on some other stuff and this was interesting to me Rear the same guy we're talking about explain that lightning hasn't seen as many attacks as A theorem layer twos because lightning users typically only store a small amount of funds in Their wallets at any given time the question I guess would be then what happens when people start storing more funds the more susceptible to hacks and This was also interesting a total of only a hundred ninety four million in Bitcoin is locked in the lighting network It's not that much Gregg defy llama so Again, we know that Technology doesn't come out the gate and work perfectly every time But we can see that there's a little bit of problems and maybe a little hiccups going on light network Hopefully they can resolve it We can actually use this for the payments when we see mass adoption anyhow Let me think about that in the comments and last two is Pretty positive actually cosmos Looks like they want to they want to do a hard fork want to do a chain split And because of that well not because of that but Adams down 3% but everything's down today So I can't I can't chalk up to that. But here's what's going on So if you're a cosmos holder like myself, this will affect you Cosmos founder J. Quan favor splitting the blockchains in a two falling decision by the community reduced cosmos native token Adams inflation 10% I don't know about you, but for staking rewards for Adam and cosmos. It's huge So when they want to reduce this I thought it was a pretty good idea because I think they were inflating things away the hard fork dubbed Adam one could be bullish for Adam and I'll tell you why and Quan I said let's coordinate a split following a decision by the cosmos community approve a proposal to reduce Adams inflation from 14 to 10 the approval change is rejected to bring down Adam's staking yield from 19 to 13.4. All right Quan states despite our voting against the plan 848 has ended up passing something that isn't too surprising But let's see what we can do. I believe that the final plan should include an integration of Adam and Atmo forward slash Adam one so that instead of mass selling Adam and collapsing it We allow participation from Adam, but that's what that's in the reading. He can be improved tokenomics people take a shot All right, whatever it is an expert on cosmos and head of strategy at stride zone a potential hard for could resolve years of community Infighting I didn't know there was that much in fighting going on there currently is and Bode well for Adam token holders and this is why this is why I thought this was a great article a Fork would be very bullish political tension is impede the development Most notably when the Adam to had vetoed and thought fall of 2022 Galt explains the hard fork to lead to the biggest airdrop for Adam and could result in a massive increase in trading Valuing for both Adam and these new Adam one tokens This is the same thing that happened back in 2017 when Bitcoin Bitcoin well one Bitcoin forked a Bitcoin cash I don't remember that But you could get a huge amount of Bitcoin cash It was actually very profitable to you because Bitcoin cash went to like I want to say over a thousand bucks You didn't you have to do anything all they do is hold one Bitcoin So I don't know when this is gonna happen. This is in the preliminary state but Jay is calling a new chain Adam one most of Adam one allocation will go to Adam stakers pro rata Unclear if liquid Adam is included So I'll keep you updated on that one, but it looks like if you're holding Adam You could be Sussettable or receiving a pretty nice sweet airdrop for just holding some tokens and then lastly macro and Macro is the big story and it really it really drives all all markets and when we see stories like this Looks pretty positive So the Fed likely to be dovish in 2024 traders expect the Fed to cut rates by a hundred basis points next year And this is why you probably seen actually, you know what let me see something What has the S&P 500 S&P 50 sweet Joseph? Yeah, five days That's weird. Yeah I'll be about the same. It's not too bad But it looks like the Fed's gonna cut a hundred basis points by next year This will weaken the dollar and incentivize risk-taking and crypto and traditional markets But there's something that's not said in this article and I'll get to that a bit So according to ING US economy and the inflation rate expected to slow next year As if it's not done already allowing the Fed to pursue a looser monetary policy Bank of America Said the tide is turning for the greenback and it can start to adjust broadly and Bank of America states while we still envision the US performing relatively well next year visa visa other major economies the prospect of eventual Economic landing and corresponding Fed easing Should provide broader leap to currencies across the globe a weaker dollar often becomes a tailwind to risk assets Including Bitcoin blah blah blah and it's true if we take a look here There was a chart that I put together When Dixie a Dixie is just it's just how strong the dollar is against the basket of other currencies You've got a Canadian dollar the pound And Japanese whatever I just get these ones confused But you can just see that as the Dixie as a dollar as the strength of dollar increases Bitcoin goes down We saw in 2013 and in 2014 When the Dixie went down Bitcoin went up and it happened again in 2016 2018 happened in 2020 2022 It's the same thing over and over again when the dollar weekends Bitcoin goes up So when you hear about this happening the dollar we can don't be concerned if you're American Just be concerned if you didn't buy enough Bitcoin then on top of that as far as like the target rates for The Fed this wasn't This wasn't the books and now you can see that As far as the next meeting which is 13th December Everybody's expecting the the federal funds rate terminal rate to stay the exact same 525 to 550 There's only 3.2% of crazies who think they're gonna raise it But maybe and then in January they think it could be the same Maybe a little more of an increase of raising in January, but in in March it looks like about a quarter of people think they're gonna cut and then in May looks like they think they're gonna cut again and then in June even more so and in July more so So that's good news as far as the rates and cutting it means that they did their job But just remember I will remind everybody Every time that there is an inversion and they cut rates and they turn around This is a this is a spread of the ten and three months every time they do that and There's an inversion unversion you get a you get a Recession is what these little gray areas are now true people will say but Rob. What about 1966 that didn't happen and you're right 966 didn't happen one time Let's see if it continues that trend or not, but you can see it happened in 69 and having 73 it happened Jesus is a bad one 1970 1980 same thing over here 89 Here's a big there's a big dumper in 2000 2001 Small one here in 0607. We had a pretty large Recession and of course during the surveys of sickness then look at the depth of this one This is what concerns me because the depth of the inversion It's one of the things that people always look at and say well now that we get to this point What happens user recession the question is soft landing hard landing and of course nobody really knows for sure One tooth one thing that two analysts can always agree on that one's a third one doesn't know what they're talking about And that's it for today. So look if you like today's video give it a thumbs up consider subscribing We talk about his time sensitive and yeah, sorry about my voice for some reason feels fine just for some reason just horse ish Who knows it was all the meds. I'm taking but that's it for today