 Well, here's the last set of news. My name is Robin. Today I want to talk to you about is what is overvalued and what is undervalued. We're going to take a look at stocks and crypto market in general. So let's just jump right in and talk about it. So the first thing's first, and that is if you want to take a look at undervalued or overvalued, I want to take a look at what is potentially overvalued right now. And this is what's called the Buffett indicator, market cap to GDP. And it's a pretty interesting indicator. You can find this at longtermtrends.net, links in the description. And what this is, and it states right here, it's become popular in recent years thanks to Warren Buffett. Now before anybody makes fun of Warren Buffett because he hates Bitcoin, he's been a pretty good investor over the last seven decades, or six or seven decades. So to cut a little slack, I think he's doing all right. I think he's beating the pants off a lot of traditional investors. I think he's going to be okay. And he states this, it's probably this Wilshire 5000 GP ratio. This is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. This was a interview in 2001, Fortune magazine. So what this is, market cap to GDP is defined as a measure of the total value of all publicly traded stocks in a country divided by the country's GDP. And we can just see right here that what's interesting is, of course, stocks, the total value of all the stocks in the U.S. to the United States GDP. This is just for the United States. And we can see here that during the dot com bubble, we were looking at the ratio of about 140%. And from top to bottom, dropped off about 50%, roughly about 70%. The mean, which you can see right here is roughly about 85% or so, some around there. And the next one, 2007, when we had the great recession, we were at about 105% some around there. And then we dropped off roughly half again, 55%, 53% some around there. And as you can see, this mean supposed to keep us kind of on even kilter, it's going to be more overvalued sometimes a little undervalued other times, like we've seen back here. But you're going to see that stocks in general were massively, massively overpriced November 2021. This is what we had, we had almost 200% overvaluation. And during that time, and you can see it's a pretty easy metric to take a look at. So if we take a look at the United States GDP in 2021, it was $23 trillion. This is just goods and services sold and everything that has to entail with that. We take a look at that and divide that by the total market value of the US stock market, which is $46 trillion at the time. This was September 30, 2022. So we can take a look back, maybe around $46, maybe $45 trillion. So $23 trillion and roughly $46 trillion, that's about 200% or 200%. And that's what we had, we were massively overvalued. And that's why you heard people like Jeff Bezos talk about like, hey, I think this might be the time for us to sell. And Elon Musk was talking about selling and Pali Hepataya was talking about selling. And a lot of the big names were selling and they were right. They pretty much called it and it was the top. And now here we are back down to 152%, which I have to tell you, 152% is still higher than the 2000.com bubble crash. So I think so far, we may still be a little overvalued on some of these stocks. And I'll just take my word for it. This is Stanley Druckenmiller. And we've been talking about this in the show for quite some time. And he comes out and said, look, here's, I think we're going to hit some pretty lower numbers. And we're not going to see a return to the all-time highs for 10 years like we did in the mid-60s all the way until late 70s, early 80s. And we can just see here, and we've talked about this many times, we topped out here around 1960, 1968, and didn't return there until 1987, just quite some time. But along those ways, there's a little bit of peaks and valleys where, of course, you can make some gains, but it didn't hit the all-time highs. It happened again, back in the Great Depression, in 1929, took us all the way to 1955, happened again, again, 2000, took us to 2014, roughly, to hit those all-time highs, the S&P 500. So when I think about it, what is overvalued, what is undervalued, I think people will listen to a Stanley Druckenmiller because he has been there before. He has been something that people look up to and say, well, this is a great investor who's been around for quite some time, Warren Buffett, same thing. So when they say that this might be some stagnation and maybe some lower prices, I think that people, especially in the traditional market, will go, where do I get some more gains? Where do I look for the best upper boundaries for my customers, for my hedge fund or somebody else's institution? Where do I go? And me personally, I think that if we take a look at essentially what's going on as far as the global market cap of just stocks itself, this is the global stock market, New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, Japan Exchange Group, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Hong Kong, your next, everybody, they roughly have around $100 trillion, $100 trillion. Again, that's probably a little more inflated. This is in 2020, not 2021. And with this one, again, if you have $100 trillion globally and you have a crypto market, which doesn't have a trillion anymore, I mean, we're teetering at $800 billion. Today, it is January 3, 2023. And I think if you look at undervalued versus overvalued, stocks are overvalued, and what is undervalued? Probably us. But don't just take the market cap for it, because I think we can fall farther. I believe we are going to fall farther. I'll get to that in a second. But if we take a look at what is undervalued right now, there's some great charts you can take a look at for free, look into bitcoin.com, links in the description. This is the MBRV Zscore. And what this is, it's a Bitcoin chart uses blockchain analysis, and if I periods where under overvalued, the market value, which is the blue line, which is multiplied, which is the current price of Bitcoin times the coins of circulation, the realized value, which is the orange line, it takes the price of each Bitcoin one is last moved. And then the Zscore kind of just takes out all the all the extreme. So we can see that this Zscore right here, this orange line, you can tell when things just became massively overvalued, 2017, massively overvalued, 2013, somewhat overvalued, 2021. And that's when it tips into that red area in the green area is usually times for accumulation or when there is serious, serious lag, or things are undervalued. That's just the first one. We can always take a look at the Puehl multiple, Puehl multiple, that's the supply side. This is for Bitcoin miners, it's calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoins to the 365 day moving average. And of course, this is all by Bitcoin miners. So when they are being issued their Bitcoin, a little bit too much, they're overvalued, it goes in these red parts. Again, 2017, 2013, teetering in 2021. And again, here we are at an undervalued territory. Let's also take a look at the two-year MA multiplier. This one, very basic highlights periods when buyer is selling is high or low, uses a moving average and the two-year MA uses a multiplication of that moving average line, two-year MA times five. And just again, when things are a little bit reddish is when things are overvalued, 2013, 2017, but you see these little green areas, these are good times to buy when Bitcoin was low $2,000, not bad time. Also, when it was below 6,000, 6,000, 4,000, and over here, and I think below 37,000, actually 16,000, excuse me, 18,000, 19,000. And the tier MA was 36,000. And over here, oh, excuse me, the price was $235. Not a bad time to buy. Also price over here, $3,700. So pretty good ones. Again, take a look at that, look into Bitcoin, you can find that right there. And the last one I use, I can't show it to you right now. I steal, I steal Ben's information from into the Cryptoverse. And I put little snippets around here, and I can't show you everything, but this is the time and risk bands. And it's a multiplication created by Ben. And you can just, what it takes to look at is the time of the price of Bitcoin, and of course as the Bitcoin price moves a little bit higher, it's a little bit more riskier, 0.9 to 1.0. Then when the price goes down in certain time frames, this 0.001 is only about 120 days that that's actually happened throughout Bitcoin's entire existence. That's the time you really want to go into it, time when it's like super low, as far as the risk level. You know where we're at right now? We're not here. We're not at 0.1 to 0.2. Right now, as low as the price is, we're at 0.2 to 0.3. Again, can't tell the whole thing, but we're right there, which means I think we have a little bit farther down to go. And the things that will drop it, I mean, I think we're undervalued right now. And I personally in dollar cross, I was even buying Bitcoin every day, we could potentially have some downward slide when stuff like this comes out. I've talked about this many times in the show, contagion from the FTX collapse, also contagion from three O's capital. Most of what FTX was doing was they as they pretty much 86 Luna, which brought down 3AC, which brought down Celsius, which brought down Voyager, and a host of other companies. And now we have something like this. This is Cameron Winklevoss. He is the CEO of Gemini and he will open letter to Barry Silbert. And he is the CEO of DCG group. And of course, with DCG, they are the founders or owners of Genesis, grayscale, foundry and coin desk, digital currency group. And what he said is this, he goes, look, we have an earn program. And of course, this was an ability for people who had Genesis or excuse me, who had Gemini, and they were able to put their crypto and earn massive amounts of yield through this program. They're not paying anymore, because there's an issue with liquidity and other problems. We put a letter to Barry goes, look, we've been trying this for quite some time. It's been months, and people aren't able to withdraw. And he goes over the whole rigmarole and things that are happening. But the things that stuck out to me was this, right about here in this last paragraph where it says, you should dispense with this fiction, Barry, because we all know what you know, that DCG and Genesis are beyond co mingled. Look, if you've been around here for a while, you know the words co mingle is a pretty ugly word. And that's the exact what happened with FTX is they co mingled user funds with the funds from employees. And that's what they use to buy all their real estate and pretty much let everything collapse in that centralized exchange. And now that's being brought to DCG. And if we have co mingling of different funds that are going on with different organizations, that is not a good outcome towards the end. Now, hopefully I am wrong, but there was another one more piece that I cannot get out of my mind, which was this. Grayscale refuses to share proof of reserves due to security concerns as shares trade at 40% and discounted Bitcoin, this is on November 21st, 2022. And of course, Grayscale, they're the ones that allow for investors to invest into Bitcoin that they hold or they say they hold. And it is a large, massive part of what the Bitcoin market is. So if they fold or they have problems and Genesis folds and then foundry, which is one of the largest Bitcoin mining group out there. And oh, yeah, if you take a look at their portfolio, you can see that there is a lot of crypto names that are out there. Now, it's a little unclear is if this is free and clear, if these are loans or what these are, but there is a lot of crypto companies that could go down. So or that could potentially be affected. Excuse me. So if we take a look at that, I think this, if this happens, and we're undervalued right now, doesn't mean we can't be even more undervalued as time goes on, potentially. And if we take a look at the four year cycles, as I'm a believer in in 2015, from the peak to the top, it was an 85% drop. That was in cycle one, which is 2012-2015. Cycle two, 2016-2019. From the peak to the top, it was an 84% reduction. Now with cycle three, which was 2020-2023, we can just see here that we thought it was in June. From the peak to the top, it was only 71%. People were like, that's it. June is the bottom. I was like, oh, like it is. And of course, we found out that so far in the cycle, the bottom was 15,742, which is only 77%. But you know what's interesting? If we go on down to roughly 10K, if something happens, which I think we could potentially do, not that it is. I don't have a crystal ball. But if we hit around 10K, remember those risk levels, that's pretty much the lowest one that we could see. And that's it. So look, if you like today's video, give it a thumbs up. If you like to see more of those, consider subscribing to these things every day. And mostly we talk about the news, but a little days a little bit different. So thanks so much for watching. I appreciate it. And we'll see you on the next one.