 Yeah, hi, so I'm Allison Hughes from the Energy Research Center at UCT and I've got two colleagues here from ERC That's Tara over there and Bruno both of which are in our modeling group Just who's beeping that's you Constantine Stop So yeah for research groups within ERC, which are broadly in the area of climate change And that's largely related to climate change policy And they are by far the dominant research group in ERC, which is Kind of interesting because they draw from then the rest of the groups in ERC Which are energy poverty and development energy efficiency and ourselves which are energy modeling and planning and and I would kind of Always hope that that would be the other way around that you'd have the sort of policy top of the Of the pyramid and everything else being kind of bigger and and more broad reaching but without with ourselves It's very much the other way around and and it's largely just the way financing financing works, but yeah, so What I was briefed to do was give you an overview of consumption Which I'm going to do like a freight train because I've got a little bit too many slides. I think and Then move on to the long-term mitigation scenario process Which kind of underpins I guess the mandate to look into things like a carbon tax in South Africa Which is what what James is is going to talk about and then a little bit about the outcomes of Of the process so in the launching into the overview of consumption in South Africa As Rob has said we very energy intensive. We're very coal based which you can see the one thing I like about this slide I feel like I should stroll over there But we have right at the bottom quite a large portion that says we use a lot of biomass and and I think this kind of draws to What we don't know about consumption in South Africa one of the things we really don't know is how biomass is used in South Africa One of the things I really like is that it shows that biomass is transported by people. I don't know how many developed country Sankey diagrams would show that as a means of transport of fuel in their country so Yeah, we had we're largely coal dominant We have coal going into on the right hand you can see liquid fuels and electricity and That also distinguishes us from many other countries where we have a liquid fuels base Which is very dependent on coal and gas through coal to liquid and gas to liquid plants so About 70% of our primary energy supply coming from coal as you saw in the Sankey diagram lots of coal being exported But also lots of coal being consumed in in South Africa quite a large reliance also on oil Which is largely imported as well as a little bit of gas Which is largely imported and that biomass number is very much up for grabs. It could be half. It could be a quarter It's unlikely to be more But also when South Africa reports what is renewable in South Africa biomass is very much reported as being renewable fuel So it pushes up what we think our renewal percent renewable percentage of primary energy supply is So, you know a nice number to have in there, but probably very wrong and then in terms of consumption also largely Coal based consumption within the sectors industry being a large consumer, but also, you know here another Question mark and our energy balances. There are an awful number of question marks in South Africa's energy balances so we do some very sophisticated research and modeling based on some Based on a lot of time spent trying to really understand how is energy consumed in South Africa and These are drawn up from South Africa's energy balances, which are drawn up by the Department of Energy Which are not necessarily a good starting point for anybody wanting to research energy in South Africa Because as I was saying you get into the residential sector using a large amount of energy in the residential sector We're reporting huge amounts of coal use Which are very likely to be wrong Given that I think it's something like 1% of households actually use coal in South Africa and it's it's a thermal fuel and it's Yeah, anyway, very very badly reported but nevertheless So we've got industry using large amount of coal use and as Rob said coal used. Where's Rob gone? Yeah, being driving our energy intensity and a bunch of energy intensive industries in In South Africa and also as Rob said the power system being very Coal dominant so sort of 85% of capacity lying in coal, but when it comes to actual Gigawatt hours of production a higher a higher amount of production lying in in coal then 85% It's somewhere in the early 90s, but also we have the only nuclear plant in Africa Yeah, and a bit of pump storage and and hydro which is also an interesting so our hydro is imported electricity largely and Wonderful opportunities for reducing our emissions through imported hydro in South Africa And then in terms of liquid fuel most of it coming from crude oil Which is all imported but also a large amount of gas to liquid and and coal to liquid in In South Africa and then Rob spoke a bit about the structure of the economy But this really just drawing again to there being a number of energy intensive economic sectors in South Africa very important for export Export earnings And Then as Rob also spoke about the sort of where does Africa lie in the global picture So you mentioned something like 1.4 percent of global emissions But in terms of where we how we would compare ourselves to other developing countries. We're very energy intensive In Africa, we're kind of a dominant economy as well as very dominant in terms of energy and fuel use and I think Bruno was saying earlier We have something like 70 percent of the Electrical generating capacity in the saddock region So we're pretty high as well as a very dominant economy in the saddock region and These are kind of all underpinned why we I think as saw that we began to worry we are so energy intensive We're clearly an outlier in the region. We're not people gonna start to Look at us and go, you know, what are you doing? And I think that was very much the beginning or the motivation for the long-term mitigation scenario process So now Launching into what was the long-term it is get mitigation scenario process any of you familiar with LTMS Any of you heard of it before Okay, so that's kind of interesting because of South Africa. We think this was very important and and it's kind of like a Global, you know, we're the leaders and you know and kind of the world in sort of setting this kind of process going So it's it's very interesting that only one person in the room has ever heard of it But you know, so the main objective of long-term mitigation scenarios was to As it says rope provide robust broad supported recommendations for long-term national climate policy and then also develop some kind of platform from which South Africa could begin to a Negotiate mitigation reductions because we were expecting that someone is going to turn around and say to us you need to reduce your emissions So so we want to get a head start and and sort of preempt that know how we might be able to do it The outcome of the process that is that we have this cabinet endorsed peak plateau and decline mitigation trajectory for South Africa which Was was a remarkable achievement actually given that we are very energy intensive and that we have large industry Lobby groups in South Africa who? You know lobby for cheap fuel prices and continued use of coal in the country And then also we have a mandate to begin exploring What policies could we use to reduce emissions in South Africa? So the LTM is process it was mandated by cabinet in 2006 so as you see from the diagram we have this cabinet memo and we have the start of the process And then from then on we had the building of a scenario Scenario building team and the scenario building team are representatives from industry labor government and Civil society and others so fairly large meetings quite strong lobby groups and then we have also simultaneously this research process and It's kind of interesting because this is where energy research center splits where we have our Modellers very much involved in the research process and the climate change group very much involved in the scenario building team and the whole scenario process and from there we get a bunch of of documentation and All the documentation coming out of the process so the scenario building team Approved all the technology information that we included in the research They have proved they approved all the scenarios that we included they approved all background data And they also approved all the documentation coming out of the research So this is very powerful. We have a bunch of strong lobby groups all agreeing to a bunch of data And these lobby groups sit on both sides. It's we want lots of renewables. It's escom saying give us loads of nuclear its Labor saying this is too much of an effect on the economy and to others Agreeing that South Africa will have a peak plateau and decline emissions trajectory Based on a bunch of analysis that has been done and from there it went on to a high-level group and then it was Cabinet approved So in terms of the research we had three Sort of broadly three Modeling processes. There's the energy model which was by far the dominant modeling process to non-energy modeling on both process emissions and then emissions from agriculture and forestry and Other sectors and then tacked on the end Which was not done terribly well was in sort of economic analysis of what came out of the energy models And this is something that we would like to try and improve upon because this is one of the main criticisms I think of our work That social effects were not taken into account enough during this process So as with any kind of modeling well with most modeling piece of works you're looking at what are we consuming now which we Had to do a lot of work to actually get to what are we consuming now? And then how might this look how might consumption look in the future? And so the first thing that was developed was a growth without constraints growth path for South Africa in emissions and growth without constraints We see quite a large growth in emissions And and a lot of that is driven by the fact that we're relying a lot of coal to liquid plants to come in We're relying coal use to continue. There's very little effort to improve any kind of energy and tends to energy efficiency in the economy and and then also Something which was kind of tricky for us was this was this view of this current development plans Which which says okay, these are the policies that South Africa currently has in place? And a lot of argument as to whether policies which we have in place should or shouldn't be included in growth without constraints And I think this is this is sort of also maybe a developing country view of of life as it is Yes, we have wonderful policies in South Africa, but not necessarily implemented And so the decision was to have a growth without constraints without current policies as if current policies aren't implemented And and I think that's largely a correct view of of how things how things happen And then what we're heading for is this required by science and so we're required by science gets us is that we're dropping emissions Slowly to what we think the IPCC is going to want from us at some time in the future And and you know as we all know I think that's kind of changing but at the at the time That was what we thought was required So so what we're trying to do is we're trying to drop this growth without constraints down to required by science or And what we're landing up with is this peak plateau and the client emissions trajectory And how we do it is we slowly add a combination of mitigation options now the model that we used as an energy Economy-wide model so it's got both supply and demand in it and and it's a it's an optimization model so you you're saying What is it going to cost me or what is it? You're developing a kind of least cost supply demand Balance for South Africa in the future So demand is a demand for end users. It's demand for heating light and cooling that sort of thing It's not a demand for final energy So you're translating a demand for heating light and cooling through a bunch of technologies into a demand for energy and then you're translating that demand for energy through Transformation processes into demand for coal and oil and gas and and other fuels and these wedges are acting at all parts of the chain So you've got wedges on the technology on the demand side You might have wedges on the behavior side, which are then affecting your your end use Consumption or your end use demands as well as on the supply side. So you might want more nuclear You might want to not have CTL plants You might want to go. What if we import hydro so a bunch of things that that we're considering One of the difficulties in South Africa is How's my time doing five minutes two minutes quick quick chop chop and is what How might development look and and I think this is It's a special challenge and then also in this kind of Development pause what government policies are driving How we'd like to see growth happening so in our economic growth where we hit a 6% growth with that's very much not a researcher perspective That's an agreed by Sonoria building team sort of political perspective almost of what the economy might look like and Then a various kind of constraints that you hit in economic growth where you go Well, we have only so many iron and steel Tons of iron and steel waiting to be mined How might that Reduce growth in iron and steel industry for instance and then also challenges related to what is the future for different? Hustle types look like because we have in different income groups hustles using energy very differently How might the energy intensity of sectors change without policy? What are opportunities for road and rail will we even invest in public transport in South Africa? So so what might we have able to do there? How will technology transfer look and things like that? And then you land up from that these bunch of different what we called wedges Which are basically giving you a cost to the economy or a savings for a bunch of different measures that we've implemented as you can see there Tons of different measures and then what we also did was some some of those measures together and the models that we That we use allow you to get a sort of combined effect of a bunch of because these policies aren't in and of themselves additive a Lot of them you need to run together to be able to see what the combined effect is and Also, if you're on the if you affect something on demand side you are also affecting on the supply side So what is the combination of demand and supply side interaction in the economy? and we see large potential savings in in industrial energy efficiency in things like changing mode of transport and and other things and let's just and Then I just added this because this is kind of curious for me as a sort of on the side So we do all this work and we start with a base year 2003 and one of the criticisms after this process was the method of determining the 2003 base year estimate should be provided It is understood that this was a projection from a 1994 data based on annual GDP growth so as scientists we sort of work from here onwards and Then someone gets hold of our work puts it back into 1990 and draws a straight line on which we are criticized For me this is an interesting kind of disconnect between the science and the policy which I which I only realized the other day And I think it's a word of caution to anyone kind of doing doing this kind of work That that we don't You know we butt up against these these criticisms of our work on stuff That actually is not based on anything that happened happened in reality But the door is open because someone put a put a line put a line on a graph. I Think I'm I think I'm done