 So you're definitely getting value. Even a name like Johnson and Johnson that usually I wouldn't even look at, right? Considering all these blood clots and all that stuff going on. But look at this chart. Look how many times it's got rejected here at the same number. Literally once, twice, three times. So Johnson and Johnson takes out this wide channel. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Everybody is doing well. So let's talk about 24 hours ago. We talked about semiconductors. If you guys remember even going back from the weekend video, we talked about how semiconductors led the market up. Semiconductors were the first group to start pulling and yesterday was the first time we closed below the 50-day moving average and usually when something closes below the 50-day moving average, there's probably going to be a follow-through in either direction and we talked about the potential of getting to the next demand zone. So if you look at every single time in the last several areas that it lost the 50-day, lost the 50-day moving average and the next day got hit all the way to the bottom of the channel here. Same thing happened here. First, excuse me, right here. First close under the 50-day, next couple of days went into support and the question today was, was it going to fall? I strongly believed based on pure technical analysis that it was going to fall. There was absolutely no catalyst that needed to take the market higher yesterday, especially in the tech space. We made a good case about semiconductors representing a big way, also cross-reference to NASDAQQQs. And the question was, was this area going to be challenged in the next several days? And the most important part was, we got our answer very, very quickly. Market gapped down, not only did it gap down, they gapped down and then they confirmed all opening range lows. And you'll see in a second, we had some pretty aggressive pivots here. And they got murdered. I mean, not only did they get down to this 236 level, they went right through it and got back down to the 232 level as well. And names like in the video that we talked about yesterday was probably my number one idea of the day, just got murdered. I mean, all these beta, all these semiconductors got murdered. But the ones that you want to focus on are the ones that have tremendous liquidity or at least better liquidity than its peers. And you want to make sure the average range is very, very wide. So there's anything that is exaggerated. Like for example, the semiconductor is the SMH is, when at one point they were down, what? They were down eight points, right? So when you get such an exaggerated move, you want to be in the stocks to have the average true range. And exactly what happened, they did spill over into the NASDAQ 100. Again, names like Amazon got really hit, Tesla got really hit, Netflix got really hit. Again, nothing to do with semiconductors, but just because they were so much represented in that group and they were cross-reference, everything got taken down as well. Square got smashed as well before its earnings. You look at a name like Apple, Apple got shelled at one point. Like really, really aggressively sold. The only thing that I didn't like what I saw about today's session, kind of around two o'clock, I said to myself, we're probably going to challenge the 50-day moving average. And this was probably going to be a scenario that there was going to be a throw the baby out with the bathwater scenario. And the reason why this area here, this 324, 325 level was so important, this is where the whole rally started from. So I really believe that we were going to get a move into the 50-day moving average either for this afternoon or tomorrow. And unfortunately, we bounced off of kind of a nothing level, right? We didn't quite hold this level initially and we didn't quite make it down to the 50-day moving average. Now, why would this have been important? If we were to just close somewhere around this supply zone, say 328, 327 on the Qs, you knew there was a high probability we were going to at least test the 50-day moving average, you could have covered your overnight shorts went long in that level. And if you do believe that the bull market thesis was strong, this would have provided at least an initial bounce, but we didn't get that, right? We didn't get that, and we're not going to get that, at least unless something crazy happens and we bounced kind of in no man's land. I mean, it's very, very rare that an ETF or an index bounces or stock kind of bounces in the middle of nowhere. And it kind of bounced in no man's land. And what I thought was going to happen off the 50-day moving average, literally had a four and a half $5 bounce on the Qs and to the close. Now, why is that bad, right? If you're looking for, if you're looking for, if you're an investor in the market and you believe in the whole theory that the market was just taking a back test on profit taking like I did, right? Like I did, even though I was sell buys going into today's session, especially in technology, especially in semiconductors, we talked about it all along. This is a pullback off of a recent run. So that's good, right? That's absolutely good. But what it did do was really destroy a five-star over, not an overwrite, a five-star setup into tomorrow, kind of a two-sided setup. In the perfect world, what would have happened was we would have opened higher, stocks would have got rejected off supply, it would have went green to red, you could have taken those channels down, they would have went down to 324, they would have held that level, you would have covered your shorts and went long, right? Easy peasy, trading is easy. I don't know why they say trading is easy. And it's fun, not fun, not easy. But that didn't happen. And the bad news is now, if you look at all beta names, and again, you'll see a lot of them, they're kind of in no man's land, right? Apple did hold a 50-day, but it's kind of a no man's land. Netflix was in no man's land, and Square ahead of earnings is in no man's land, and Roku, and there's a ton of them, right? Guys, you could go through the whole group, they're kind of in no man's land, Amazon as well, so they're not here nor there. So if we do get kind of a follow-through what we saw this afternoon, and kind of rallying through the close, remember, stocks need ranges, they need specific channels. And if they don't have specific channels, buying a DebtCAD bounce or playing a DebtCAD bounce, your risk reward is completely skewed, and any bounce spot, it's all it is, it's a bounce spot. So you're not going into it with any type of aggression, you're not going with any type of confidence, bounces stop at any point. Again, you could still manage your risk and curb your downside using maybe a previous five-minute channel as your max pain, or even the 60-minute channel if you want to give it a little bit more risk. But the point is, if we do have a DebtCAD bounce session tomorrow in technology, that's not where the value is. Just because, again, the last thing you want to do is kind of play around with bounces, right? It's like kind of trading random stocks, like I trade there, I mean 90% of my trades are all the same stocks. So if you're trading random stocks, you're gonna get random results. So if you're trading random bounces, you're gonna get random results on those bounces. So that's kind of where I want to get away from tomorrow unless they start losing their channels and start going back down to the 50-day moving average. But the one good thing, again, life gives you some bad things and they give you some good things. The good part about it is the fact that we did bounce, especially off the Dow Jones, again, the Nasdaq was down like 350 at one point. It closed down 250, which is still a bad move, right? Still a pretty aggressive sell-off. But the point was the market did kind of hold and all ETFs and all indexes started rallying through the close. So if the bad news is the tech stocks are kind of in no man's land, the good news is the money flow went into a lot of different other groups into the close, setting up some really good channels for tomorrow. Now again, is this gonna be my premium day tomorrow? Probably not, but if you trade non-beta, if you trade retail, if you trade insurance, if you trade healthcare, if you trade some pot stocks, if you trade some metal and energy, there's some pretty good value. So let me give you guys some ideas kind of what I'm talking about. Like look at Cleveland Clips, big, big call buying came out today, really, really big call buying. And if it starts getting above this channel here, hell, why can't it see 22, 23? Again, this is maybe not my thing, right? But if you do trade $20 stocks with some really, really good liquidity, and actually the fact that I'm seeing some really good liquidity, I'm actually changing my mind about Cleveland Clips trading it tomorrow. But this looks really, really good. If you look a name like Crocs, for example, had a big number into earnings, a good day to follow through, and put it as high as close. So if this thing confirms tomorrow and we have a debt cap bounce, especially in the indexes, this thing could have a big day up. Look at a stock like AOM, where's AOM, Zeus Insurance, what the hell is this thing? But look at this chart, big candle up, two days in a row, kind of going sideways, starts taking out this top of the chattel, it could resume as well. So you're definitely getting value. Even a name like Johnson and Johnson, that usually I wouldn't even look at, right? Consider all these blood clots and all that stuff going on. But look at this chart, look how many times it's got rejected here at the same number, literally once, twice, three times. Johnson and Johnson takes out this wide channel. Again, not a Johnson and Johnson trader, but hell, I might start looking at this thing tomorrow. If this thing takes out, takes out this whole range here, look how much room you have back to the upside. So there's definitely value. Is this one of those Tesla, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook days? No, it's not. And that's kind of my point. Not every single day is going to be highlighted in your process or highlighted in your sweet spot. So you have two choices. You can either sit it out, right? Or you could start looking at other avenues. These are some avenues that I'm definitely watching tomorrow. Name like Johnson kind of interests me. That's what I said. Name like Cleveland Cliffs interests me, right? Just because of the liquidity. But there's definitely some names if you do your homework tonight, you could definitely find that's not beta. Now again, trading the stock like a Tesla, for example, tomorrow, where's your value, right? Like where's your value here? Can it go up? Of course it can go up. Can it go down? Of course it can go down. But where's your value? Where's the channel that you want to take? Now there was a channel today that I took to the downside off this previous channel's low, which worked out pretty well today. But the point is the value is in other places. Again guys, always remember, trade the market you want. Excuse me, trade the market you have, not the market you want. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, even names like Walmart and Target and Costco that had big runs yesterday, they took a day off today, right? So they rested today, they took a day off. So they still might be in play for tomorrow. But let's talk about the pivots today. It was basically all downside pivots, like literally one by one technology. Peloton was actually pretty good at one point today as well, Netflix was good. There was a lot of good aggressive pivots to the downside and let's start talking about them. Baidu 204, if it builds below, it can flush. It was Baidu. And yesterday guys, I apologize, when I was recording the video and this was the setup by accident, I said beyond, it was Baidu. That's what people were asking me, it was Baidu, not beyond. So Baidu took out the 204, this previous 50 day support and went all the way down to like 199, nice move on Baidu. Zoom got hit really hard at one point, 309, 308, if it builds below, it can flush more. Here was Zoom, right? Took out the 309, went all the way down to 298, nice move on Zoom. Netflix held 505 twice daily if it builds below, it can flush. Here was Netflix, and I miss Netflix. I was trading Tesla when Netflix confirmed, but it took out this 505. You see these two candles here? 505 was low here, 505 was low here. So it took out 505, went all the way down to 496. So really nice move on Netflix. NVIDIA, yeah. So I love NVIDIA at 590, that was the spot yesterday. 585 was the pre-market low. And I said it could be a little bit tricky because $5 spread becomes a little bit tricky. So I said for experienced traders only, 585 that builds below can flush more. NVIDIA got absolutely destroyed, right? So here is the 585 opening range, right? This whole area here, 585 opening range, and it went all the way down to 560, just a massacre, absolutely a massacre. A lot of these semiconductor names, Tesla, I call it Tesla as well, all the way down to the 661 level. 666 was the previous channels low. Nice move there, went all the way down to 658. 573 is next support, went all the way down to 560. 302 next stop, went to 598. Nice flush on $6, $7 flush on Baidu. New lows, blah, blah, blah. 599 support in here on Netflix. So you had a pretty good flush here, 196 next stop with the 9680s and Qs, right? Qs, you know, in that count, this was my game plan, right? And if we didn't rally, this would have been a great game plan. 320, 480s is a 50-day support. That's where you wanna cover all your shorts and potentially take a long, that's where the rally started. But unfortunately, we're not gonna get that play. So it is what it is. Life gives you lemons. You make lemonade. Also, Peloton, I shorted Peloton off that 94. Multi-multi-week breakdown. It went down like $1.30, $1.40, but that's it. Pretty good trade, nevertheless. So going into tomorrow, it does appear like we will have a dead cat bounce on the indexes. Like I said, I think the value is in other places. Just in case technology cannot rally, guys, of course we're gonna be watching for opening range lows. Again, as the futures play out, as the channels are formed, especially after 10 o'clock, I think we'll have more clarity. So always remember, you have a game plan, but if it starts going the other way, again, it's not about being right. It's about being solid. Guys, have a great day. I wish you the best and I'll see you all tomorrow.