 Great everybody welcome to the live stream just as the thumbnail on the title suggested There is some some some data maybe some strong data that would take a look at to sell in May and go away So we're gonna take a look at what that data actually is how things are correlated to the traditional market and just exactly What is going on and how it might be attractive for some people firstly not for me, but that's not what it's all about It's about you and making the best decision We'll take a look first at a squawk box interview fairly and strategies analyst on Bitcoin to a rally in May And we'll take a look at is Bitcoin correlated and what's really the interest level? Also, we'll take a look at historically how everything has done going over all the months and we're gonna use a little data from into the cryptoverse Ben's website and Lastly we'll talk about what I'll be doing during these months and surprise. It's DCA and a wealth preservation So we'll take a look at all those things, but first let's take a look at what is going on into the market So if you're here for the live stream welcome, that's a little bit later had to do some things the morning Play volleyball on the beach and so that's why it's a little bit later today. So sorry about that But just so you know if you're here for the live stream welcome Thanks for showing up. I appreciate it if you're here to watch the the recording later Just know there's gonna be timestamps underneath so you can jump ahead Do whatever you want to do because time is precious and then also just know that the the stories or the news takes about 15 20 minutes and then we do Five questions and five minutes of the very end a little Q&A. So stick around for that So let's jump into and take a look at what exactly is going on in the market today's Boring, I'll be honest with you. So sideways. It's not a big deal. I mean not for everything Bitcoin is down a little bit 1% Whatever Ethereum 1.3 tether. Nobody cares Binance, etc. But look at Cardano. Just Just going crazy 10% on a day where nothing really is going on 34% for the week So congratulations all you Cardano holders great job of Not selling and it finally peaks up above the dollars. That's great Tara, which is a fantastic looking that project Is doing great things and I think that when we talked to this yesterday Do Quan how they're actually putting in a a marvelous amount of money in a Bitcoin We'll see if that whole three billion goes in Solana number nine and so on so what so let's see anything big today besides Cardano 4% for a theorem classic sure 7.9 for Axie infinity now, right? You know what I like about Axie infinity is that you can you can play that you can you can Scholarship somebody they can play it for you guys can split the profits The problem is what I would like to see is a play to earn game on mobile sound off in a comment section because that will be The next big thing so oh wow 8.1 up 10% sure Good luck with that one be careful, but that's not the thing. I'm gonna get into that's just me All right, so as we go on the market, let's jump into it huh times precious. So this one we had a It was a pretty good interview on Squawk box and before we we get into the squawk box She's always what they're gonna talk about is the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ being correlated And we'll get into some some data points But just so you know if you take a look at the S&P 500 today It's down just a little bit just like we are right now We take a look at the last five days. It's kind of looks like us doesn't it and the crypto crypto verse We've got a nice little rally then a little bit of a dip take a look at NASDAQ same thing Down for today or the last five days was looking pretty good Then just a little bit dip same thing we've seen over in crypto and digital asset world So we take a look here. I'm gonna play this this video and This is one of the analysts from Fairfield strategies and what she talks about as far as like May and the things that are going on I think have direct relevance to what we're trying to do here in the crypto space just take a listen I'm gonna do real quick So I'm gonna share the actual tab so you can actually hear it think it's best to do it that way and I'm gonna mute myself and that could make it difficult in your view Even though the downside in Bitcoin you think is 38,000 and it's it's been challenged a few times and that's positive But you don't think new highs are in the cards for Bitcoin and then we'll get to the S&P That's right for Bitcoin and Bitcoin actually is providing kind of cues for the S&P 500 We saw it's corrective phase late last year and sue before the corrective phase in the S&P 500 We could actually translate that to just high beta stocks in general as well Look at the software sector for one it started correcting late last year ahead of the correction in the major indices So we've looked to these kind of higher beta Is that the market sort of the real risk on assets including Bitcoin for cues as to the next step for the S&P? 500 Bitcoin has stabilized of course It's seen a loss of downside momentum after nearly having itself and that support around 38,000 is a very important level We're glad to see it having held except it does not mean that it's in the clear here We have a loss of long-term upside momentum behind all risk assets and that tells us that this year is probably more of a range bound year we're liking it to somewhat of 2018 where for the S&P 500 we saw a corrective phase earlier in the year a big sort of mid-year relief rally And then a massive correction at your end So we use that as our analog for this year and of course we did see that corrective phase about 15% for the S&P 500 And now we think Bitcoin S&P 500 they're embarking on what is an intermediate term relief rally perhaps it carries this up to about May Which is you know seasonally a very normal time for the market to start to meet resistance The market to me a little bit of resistance which if you take a look at what's been going on There's been a lot of resistance along the way just this year January February and March hopefully April's a little bit better, but I got to tell you it's It'll just come down to a couple of factors. Hopefully we'll see those things But that's just that first part now. Let's talk about because they were talking about correlation So the question that is is Bitcoin correlated to the markets I think we just saw and what's the interest level going on? So if we take a look here Bitcoin's correlation S&P 500 hits 17 month high. It's pretty high Here's what we got the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Wall Street's benchmark equity index the S&P 500 rose to 0.49 on Friday, just so you know anything that's that goes on the continuum between Negative one and one one means it is highly correlated zero not so much and negative means it's going the opposite direction So 0.49 it's inching closer to being lockstep with Nasdaq and S&P 500 and this is the highest since October 2020 according to data by arcane Bitcoin's correlation the S&P 500 has only been higher for five days in Bitcoin's history and Bitcoin's history showing the current correlation regime is unprecedented Throughout time and then if we take a look there Now we're gonna talk about the interest level because I don't know if you've seen it But I know I'm heavily interested in crypto Maybe you are if you're watching this channel, but the question is how are the common folk? How are the people that are out there and what do they say as far as like do they have really interest levels now? You can give some anecdotal evidence and go well I had a couple of people come up to me and say that they were interested into it But really let's take a look at one of the most powerful things we can take a look at as far as the interest levels Google Trends that'll tell us a little bit of the story not the whole story a little bit So judging by Google search trends interest in crypto have had a short-term peak or actually a long-term low Global interest in virtual currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are 70% below their 2021 highs Of course because it's not sexy and it's not exciting because now it's boring because everything's moving sideways So who wants to be in this type of market me? I do this is where I make all my money when people are bored and don't give a crap and they just move away I love it these times Global interest in virtual currencies like Bitcoin I said query volumes for NFT are also pretty weak at 65% lower than the January 2022 highs and of course We can see that when you have a high interest level you get a pouring in of retail Which sometimes some people may call that dumb money, but whatever that's their prerogative And when you see a lot of people come in that means FOMO and the prices go ballistic and then you see stuff like this April 2021 Interest spikes price doubles and it went from 30,000 to 60,000 down here Not so much, but it's still hit an all-time high if you're interested in this space We'd recommend waiting for search interest so that got me thinking well How is that really look on a continuum? As far as the Google Trends because you can take you can dice data any way you want to right? So for Bitcoin these search terms that's it's not gonna give you on Google Trend It's not gonna give you the exact amount of what the search queries are for Like you can't just tell you like 1,975 you can get that data But you have to pay for it and if you're into a Google AdWords like I am you can get it But I'm not gonna get that for this one. This is good enough What it is is a continuum 100 means it's the most interest you've ever seen for searches for this search term, which is Bitcoin and from 2004 to present Which Bitcoin wasn't even around that time But 2009 will say all the way to now the highest search terms it ever was was in December 2017 Oh, it was a good times, right? That was the most second highest was right around here February 2021 good times nice Nice price action then down here one again in May remember that one 64 now here We are sitting down this paltry 29 out of 100. So no one's really interested. How about cryptocurrency same type of thing We peaked up in December 2017 100 now we're down here 23 that's sad then NFT and if he was a little bit different NFT actually hit its stride in January 2022 and now here we are like 34 I mean even board a Piat Club is as having problems. So that's where we are as far as the interest level For the average individual the average person the average retail investor Of course, we know that there's a huge interest in institutions But and everybody talks about how hey just wait those institutions are right around the corner Sure, but for right now they're probably buying OTC, which isn't moving the market too much and that gets boring So what does that lead to? Well the question then becomes well historically How is everything been because this whole theme of selling in May and going away? Is that true? Let's take a look. So if we take a look here this is Ben's Great website into the cryptoverse. There's a link in the description below. It's a paid website Totally worth it and it goes everything mark cap risk and everything else. It's not an affiliate link Me and Ben and and James we do that that DCA show. So I always like to talk about it But it is good stuff. Here is the Bitcoin monthly returns table from 2010 To 2011 2020 and we can see we've talked about this Adnazium I think that January is a pretty crappy month I mean 30% on average if you add all the different years up, right and February not too bad, right March is like the worst Statistically historically. It's not the greatest. There's a lot of red in here and I mean except for 2013 Was 176% which is pretty not too bad, but historically not the greatest April kind of turns things around April is probably roughly The best month you can have in crypto then it kind of slides away in May selling may go away and you can see June July August September not so great. So maybe this whole thing about selling may and go away is Actually something that you can use not just in the traditional markets But maybe potentially in crypto gel assets and let me just say this to make things crystal clear I know some people say well. Oh now Rob. He wants to sell and get out Listen man, man, whoever I'm not going anywhere. I've been in this since 2017 and where I made all my money I know people get sick of me saying it but there's some people who are new so just to make this crystal clear I made all my money Dollar cost averaging when the market sucked in 2018 when it was down on the pits and nobody wanted to be here That's when I made a ton of money So if you're thinking about it, and I can't give you investment advice This is just investment paying what I have done. There's there's probably way better ways to make a ton of money You know just go just go find that magic youtuber. I mean, there's tons of websites But that's how it worked for me. So like when this these things come like when in Selling may and go away probably not gonna sell too much because for me. What's the point? And then you have to think about some other things Taxes how hard or how easy it is to get back in what your specific goals are So these are just things that we talk about to get the wheels turning in your head, and I'm not telling you what to do I'm just telling you that historically. Hey It's a pretty good month to actually sell and get out because June July August Timber are not the greatest That leads me to my next point This is a pretty good article. I Need to link this in the description. I didn't do it. Sorry, but I'll link it after this And it's from May 1st May 1st 2021. Should you sell a man go away? This is from Forbes This is from Simon Moore senior contributor, and he looks at some pretty good data points. So here's what it says for decades The idea that you should sell in May has been an important part of stock market folklore I used to hear about this a long time ago. I was never in a stock market when I got a crypto I heard this a lot it sometimes called the Halloween indicator since you buy back in October Let me say that again It's sometimes called the Halloween indicator since you buy back in October Let's take a look real quick because if you look down here at these bottom parts This is the average over all the years in March. Like I said Not the greatest month plus or minus 52 percent April plus or minus 116 percent not too bad in May 45. Meh June 28 July 16 August 25 September negative 13 October plus 62 November plus 125 December plus 29 those are just the averages. So when we take a look here, maybe there's something to that of Course investing should not be that easy But the odd thing is that compared with other rules this one has held up rather well in history Basically looking historically over many decades the markets intended to return closer to 1% Over the May to October period and when we talked about and then 5% during the winter months on average the data is from a Long-set 1919 to 2017 has been broadly true Across 65 different countries where historical data is available interesting. So should you sell? That's a question. You got to ask yourself Short-term trading can have tax consequences and this is huge if you're trading your portfolio every six months Then that may mean short-term gains rather than long-term gains if you're in taxable count So I don't know where you're at, but if you're like in the Netherlands It sucks those capital gains are awful if you're in France worse Ireland It's super high United States is no better. There are some great places Puerto Rico. I pay 0% And guess what I'm probably not gonna sell should I sell? Yeah, probably But will I have probably not cuz I really need it right now. I'm looking at three four or five years down the road But again, my goals aren't your goals. So again, you have to think to yourself Do I really want to sell and like we were after one of the shows of DCA was me James had been we're talking and I and James is like, you know He's making a killing in you know, his trades. He's like but damn it His capital gains are crushing me. I'm like just moved to Puerto Rico Just like you should do actually and if you want to take a look at my recommendations I'm gonna pop up the the Puerto Rico video up here at some point And you can take a take a gander at that x60 and all the different pitfalls I went through So you have to think to yourself again, is it worth for the taxes? That's up to you to say also Market timing selling stocks can often be easier than buying back in it can be easy to find a reason to leave the market But having the courage to buy back in may not be as easy and be just important. I gotta tell you I got the opposite problem. I have no problems buying dips and things like that. I got a problem selling And that's been a one of my Achilles heels. But hey, what are you gonna do still has worked out? Okay? I think so that is essentially what we have for Sell in May and go away now It's up for you to decide if this is something that you want to do or some you want to pass on not investment advice Just investment opinion which leads me to my last point What I'll be doing during these months. Don't follow my advice. This is just me me personally I'm gonna do the exact same thing I did in 2018 when things start to slide down and maybe they will maybe they won't No one has a crystal ball. I don't I can't see the future But if they do slide down precipitously, I'll probably still be buying and dollar-cost averaging I'm still dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin and Ethereum and Luna and some other ones every single day So this won't really change me too much unless we start to really fall down then what I'll do is I'll buy even more of it So that's what I will do and then also I have this what's called my wealth preservation stack So I'm gonna tell you a story. This is a newsletter called the daily upside. It's free I have a link if you want to check it out, but it just gives you the macro view of What's going on and it's every single morning. It's pretty cool. They'll tell you stuff like Corporate spending 70 million Getting tired. No, this isn't it. Ah, the SEC proposes rule to force companies to disclose climate risks It's gonna be big for Bitcoin I think but it just kind of gives you a macro view of traditional finance But this one caught my eye a silk screen portrait of legendary Hollywood starlet meal in Monroe By Andy Warhol would put up for auction this spring with an asking price of two hundred million dollars Christie's announced Monday, so they're gonna sell that for 200 million They will probably get it because we know anything about Christie's and they put things up Actually, sometimes go for a lot more. It's the highest asking price for any piece of art auction history Why do I bring this up because I'm here to tell you Rich people are crazy And they'll buy art like it's going to style. What does that mean? Well for me When I actually make the gains, what do I do with it? Well, I can only put so much into real estate Real estate isn't that great right now. It's super overpriced. I can buy more crypto Just leave in there which we do what I do But there's a small percentage why I call my exit strategy is we're about 5% I do things like this There's this thing it's called masterworks. I've talked about this many times you can buy Fractionalized shares of art and why is that great? Because if you're looking for someplace to stick it if you can put in the bank, that's great But inflation is gonna get you seven eight nine percent fifteen percent whatever you believe it's actually be true So putting the money in the bank is not a good idea for me investment pain investment vice and I will just say that they've done a pretty outstanding job year over year 32% for a Banksy 31% for George condo. I don't know that is Albert Olin 33% again I don't know any of these artists except for Banksy actually have a Banksy I bought two artists a basket out in a Banksy so compare the S&P 500 9.9 contemporary art 14% sometimes you get stuff like 33% so I'm investing in that There is a link in the description I'll show you in a second and I did a whole video about why I did this also You got your I trust if you're looking for a Roth IRA You can put it into crypto because guess what if you don't want to pay taxes and you don't want to move to Puerto Rico This will be the bet next best thing so if you buy Bitcoin now Maybe when you retire in 10 15 20 years, you know to pay one cent of taxes You can save yourself also I still invest in the I trust capital because guess what I never know when this isn't gonna go away as far as with Puerto Rico there's rumblings of it right now and then take away Act 60 So I am leaving nothing at the chance so I will still use that and then also of course in America Sorry taxes are due so use crypto trader tax. I just put all your information in direct API integration takes about 30 minutes Then my CPA boom boom boom done again links in the description look just like this bang bang bang and that's it So that's it for today 20 minutes. I think I think I hit that I think I did okay Lot of stuff today, but I thought it was warranted so look now We're gonna do the five questions in five minutes if you have to take off that's cool I understand there's a lot of things going on if you wouldn't mind hit that like button It's the only way that I think that YouTube understands that this isn't some some crazy wacky video and then actually push that to more people I'll consider subscribing to this every day. So I'm not bad for a notification and that's it Let's do five questions in five minutes and get out of here, huh? all right Number one BitBoy said one million this year right guys guys. I don't know everybody makes look everybody makes crazy predictions, right? This is why I'm not doing them anymore because they're worthless. They're they're just junk and Even even though I got a couple right. I got many wrong. So no more price predictions Here's like well, I will give you one price prediction for today Bitcoin this year will be between Just this year 40,000 and a hundred thousand. That's my price prediction That's it bill leary says everybody saying Bitcoin is the answer But all the youtubers can't wait to sell the Bitcoin for fiat. I get to kick out of it. I don't I do too I'm not here to sell Bitcoin though, but uh, I suppose so like I said Everybody's got their options to do whatever they want to do. I personally will be staying in this for the long run I think Bitcoin could at some point hit some pretty high six figures I don't know about seven things, but again, I like to keep things into assets hard assets that appreciate Great question not meme says hey Rob is there a meetup tonight? No, there's not so We usually do it every two weeks. Usually Wednesday. We do it. Um, I had a lot of things go on and then I will actually be leaving Puerto Rico for a couple months going back to texas So I leave next saturday. So what I want to do is have like a bon voyage So next wednesday, we'll do the meetup. So sorry about that. I messed up the time frame And uh, hopefully that's your question. That's number one Number two, how safe is lending stablecoins? It depends on the platform that you wore on I It's it's hard to say um in all honesty because How much do you know every platform you never know? And sometimes there's things that you'll never know that are going on behind the scenes I kind of look at exchanges and platforms like swans. I've said this before like swans Up above they look very graceful and peaceful nothing's going on right and everything's on the up and up But underneath that water, they're paddling like crazy trying to get somewhere So I don't know what's going on But like for me personally like first stablecoins like I put mine on voyager have never had a problem of voyager I have some on celsius never had a problem with celsius. Those are two um And it's up to you to kind of figure out what it is But I will say if you don't feel comfortable then don't put them on exchanges because every exchange is hackable It can happen. Just some are just harder to hack than others Ah It's a great question this question number three question if 900 bitcoins are mine every day All right, and reportedly 5 000 plus bitcoin are leaving changes each day What will happen if it runs out you have to remember? first of all This supply shock i'm hearing about this forever too, and i'm still waiting for this supply shock Even if the first of all the bitcoin miners aren't really selling Too much their bitcoin and I can tell you exactly where to find that data. And let me just pull this up There's this website And it's called crypto quant And i'm going to sign in uh-huh And i'll go my dashboard And miners are right here. Let's blow this up shall we so This is 2011 when miners in 2010 when miners bitcoin miners would sell like crazy because no one knew what the hell was going on I like want to sell this and there Lots of selling right, but then as you we move over here. There's almost zero, but let's zoom in just to get a little bit better perspective Okay back here in 2020 Can someone sound off in the comments and tell me when the great migration was for all the bitcoin miners in china when they got kicked out I thought it was around here Which would make sense of why they sold a lot of bitcoin because they had to move all their rigs make sense, right? Then you have over here And if you look since 2021 bitcoin miners aren't selling a lot of their bitcoin They are hoarding it for the long haul even now here. So A thousand one thousand six hundred thirteen, so not too much So the question is then well, what about all the bitcoin that jits taken off the exchanges? Well, there's always gonna be somebody else who's going to put bitcoin on the exchange and sell it Here's the thing if I'm just gonna be honest with you If all the bitcoin gets taken off of the exchanges and everybody's holding with diamond hands And someone's like I'd like to buy that for 50,000. There's none. Okay 100,000. There's none 250,000. There's none Half a million dollars. There's none. Okay. I'll pay a million dollars I will take my one bitcoin and sell it to you. No questions asked for a million dollars There's always sellers and there's always buyers. Well, not always, but you know, you get the gist of it So just know that it's not so much the uh, the miner is selling, but there's always a demand So oh, there's sometimes that I should say hopefully answer your question Alchemist congrats on the aid holders. I sold mine at buck 30. Hey Are we here to make a profit? Are we to change the world? Some people are here to do both Yeah, so another question Well, it's like it's a statement you can make good money mining helium at home and the machine only costs 100 bucks Yes, you so the helium miners and the helium token is a really great project trying to 5g networks and trying to get for a cellular service and things like that Gary Gensler trying to cut my feed. So the thing that I remember about those those miners was that you They were like a big backlog order. Hopefully maybe they've made some more but I had a problem I was trying to do it but And uh, I just wouldn't let me because I couldn't get a miner. So that's it So Don't do more says is 150 slana enough to retire in 10 years question number four Maybe I don't know depends on where you want to retire. Do you want to retire in uh, Los Angeles? I don't care if I don't care if Solana is going for like $1,000 per token at that point or $10,000 even $10,000 a token if you're gonna try to move to Los Angeles. It's gonna be tough We're trying to move to Thailand Bangkok some places like that Not Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is expensive It just depends on when you want to live and that I think is is is the bigger question What do you want as far as your quality of life? I can't answer you for that one. Sorry One mullet's here. I I saw you in the chat man. Thanks for being here Always a pleasure speaking of traders. There's a guy I didn't fall asleep your cousin Gary Gensler tried to cut my feed. You know how it works. Okay Uh Mining used to be yeah Healing and mining used to be way more profitable everyone their mama's on it. That's right. That's the only problem And I think we got one more question Thailand is getting more expensive. I believe that I think everything's being more expensive That's the problem of printing a bunch of money Great question number five If they changed the law of taxes in Puerto Rico, would you consider moving out? Hmm No In the beginning probably when I first moved here I'm gonna get this out of here because I was you know You it's tough to like get into a new place kind of understand everything and really get into the culture But as I've moved here and I've met more people and done more things I really like this place. So, you know, they removed act 60 and said, sorry sucker You can't you know capital gains. Da da da I'd still move. I'd still live here. It's pretty great Now if they came back and said hey capital gains at 50% see you I'm out of here But in all honesty in all honesty if they came up and said hey We're not gonna we're gonna charge you capital gains, you know, and it's gonna be 3% 4% 5% and we're gonna make this, you know static for five years or whatever it is I'll be okay with that Better than 20% or 33 or 43 or 47% depending on what tack bracket you in and long short term capital gains But I gotta tell you again watch that video on Puerto Rico. This place is pretty great, especially to Just to be here for a little relaxation And uh, I know people a lot of people out there. They want money and lambos and mansions and things like that I just want time Just my own time. That's it. So that's it. So look, thanks for stopping by appreciate it If you like this video give it a thumbs up give it a like all that great stuff can hear subscribing And that's it for today. So thanks so much for watching. I do appreciate it And I'll see you on the next one. Adios