 Welcome to the 13th episode of international relations capsule for Shankar Iyer's Academy. Our topic today is Afghanistan. The recent developments there. Afghanistan peace process has entered a new stage. Before we start we should very quickly recall the history of Afghanistan in the recent years. It has been a turbulent nation where it tumultuous history it has had for several years. And we could at least start with the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan which took place in 1979. Soviet Union sent its forces into Afghanistan to bring about some stability. But the whole world opposed it because Soviet Union was sending forces into an online country. And the trouble started from there because various terrorist groups, various tribal groups etc. started fighting against the Soviet Union from 1979 onwards. And support for this came from United States, Pakistan, China, Saudi Arabia etc. Generally in the world itself there was public opinion against the Soviet Union for having sent their troops into Afghanistan. But for several years Afghanistan kind of held the peace. Very unpleasant, not very peaceful peace. But there was some kind of order because the Soviet troops were there. But there was great demand from all over the world including the United Nations General Assembly. Because the Security Council the resolution was vetoed by the Soviet Union. But there was a demand from the General Assembly to withdraw from Afghanistan. India took a rather non-committal line. We felt that the presence of the Soviet Union had kept the peace in Afghanistan. And therefore we did not remand vociferously for Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan. And this was considered to be a pro-Soviet approach by India. So we were also under criticism. But after some time the situation became more difficult. Taliban emerged as the major dissenting force against Soviet Union. And so Taliban emerged as a major power. And then finally the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan. But contrary to the expectation that once the Soviet Union would withdraw there would be peace. And there should be unity among the tribals and others in Afghanistan. The situation got much worse. And in 1996 the civilian government was overthrown. And we had a Taliban government, Taliban took over. And this was a bizarre experience. It was an experience of chaos. Because Taliban was very extremist in their ways. Very dictatorial, fundamentalist, terrorist-oriented group of Taliban. And it continued with various difficulties, problems, intense suffering for Afghanistan etc. And then India had always spoken to the West, talking about terrorism, the origin of terrorism being in Afghanistan. But not much attention was given to that. And the world thought that Taliban will somehow continue as a government. And then of course 2001 we had the 9-11. And very quickly it was traced. The 9-11 incident, the bombing in New York was traced to very many terrorist groups in Afghanistan. It was the same terrorist who we let off from Indian custody and went back to Afghanistan. But the same people who masterminded the 9-11. So the United States under President Bush took very serious action and decided to invade Afghanistan in order to punish the Taliban and the other terrorists. So a war on terrorism was declared in 2001. And a civilian government was established. First we had Amit Karsai in 2001. In 2014 we had Ashram Ghani. So on the one hand there was a civilian government. And at the same time Taliban continued. I mean Taliban was ousted by the United States. But terrorism did not end there. Terrorism continued. And the United States had to stay on till now. All these years from 2001 to now it is 2021. So about 20 years so United States has been bogged down in Afghanistan. In United States itself there was a lot of public opinion against American forces losing their lives in Afghanistan. Terrorism had not ended. And this experience of the US troops somehow holding the peace, supporting the civilian government and also fighting the Taliban continuously. And so a stage was reached and people felt that this had to be ended. In fact President Biden referred to it as the unending war. But not that his predecessors had not tried. Mr. Obama wanted to withdraw and therefore in preparation for withdrawing he sent fresh troops into Afghanistan so that they can fight the war quickly. Defeat the Taliban and keep another force and the government in Afghanistan and withdraw. But that did not happen because terrorism continued. And there was no way that United States could withdraw without throwing the country into total chaos. But still many US troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan and gradually and slowly Taliban became more and more powerful. And it became necessary for the United States to finally start negotiations with Taliban. Because it was necessary for them to withdraw and they could not withdraw without some kind of reconciliation in Afghanistan. With the various elements of the Northern coalition, the Ghanis government, there were all other kinds of leaders who have been earlier there. They were all involved in this and it was very necessary to come to some kind of an understanding. And during Trump's period this discussion started with various elements including the Taliban and most of the discussions took place in Doha, Qatar. India was of course not parties to any of these negotiations because we are not considered an immediate neighbor. But we were engaged in even in the kind of all this confusion and chaos. India was a partner with the legitimate government in Afghanistan to provide humanitarian relief, to give them some support, build some hospitals and also build a parliament house. So India was not enrolled either in the negotiations or in the conflict but we are also unfortunately some of our people lost their lives in the process. But India continued to invest in Afghanistan and the hope that there will be peace. And there will be an Afghanistan owned by Afghans, led by Afghans and a kind of normalised Afghanistan was what we were in this situation. Meanwhile, President Trump declared that he will withdraw from Afghanistan whatever may happen by Christmas and 2020. But that also did not take place though there was an agreement that has been an agreement for about a year or so. It did not result in the withdrawal of the US troops. And so President Biden inherited a chaotic Afghanistan with an agreement in place with Taliban but unable to implement it. So he made a review, he wanted the United States troops to withdraw only about 2500 of them but there are also other troops from NATO etc. So he began an exercise of review. Now we have the results of the review and the idea now is to have a fresh negotiations on the basis of the Doha agreement. So we reappointed the negotiator to continue the negotiations with the Taliban and this is going on. But though Taliban is not really attacking American troops specifically, they are caught in the crossfire and the American soldiers have been in danger too. So all this necessitated a fresh approach and that is the news that we are receiving. And the first effort has been to somehow form a government with Mr. Ghani as the President and the Taliban and other interested communities to form a government and then hand over power, Mr. Ghani himself will hand over power and then the United States could leave. But then Mr. Ghani said that that would not be a right process and he was willing to announce elections. And if elections are held and go over wins, of course the presumption is that the Taliban will have a majority. But whatever Mr. Ghani has said that there could be an election and that could be the beginning of American withdrawal. India was not a participant in these discussions but sometimes you were invited to observe the discussions but we have not had any direct interaction with the Taliban. But right from the days when the United Nations started the negotiations on Afghanistan many, many years ago, even then India was not invited as a party to these negotiations. The five permanent members and immediate neighbors but we don't have an immediate border with Afghanistan and therefore we were excluded. And it was also partly because Pakistan objected to India's presence because they knew that they were supportive of the Taliban and they wanted to control the whole exercise so that they could make concessions to the Americans and become part of a process of reconciliation and they did not want India's inclusion in that. So, but now the new proposal that which has come from President Biden in the form of a letter by the Secretary of State, Mr. Blinken to the president Mr. Ghani and also Abdullah Abdullah who is the chairman of the reconciliation group in Afghanistan. And he put forward a proposal that a fresh discussion should take place under the auspices of the United Nations and the venue should be in Turkey in Istanbul. And together with other countries which were involved in these negotiations, he suggested that India should also be part of these discussions and a new meeting could be held under the United Nations auspices and this is the proposal that the United States has put forward. But in between just before that the Russians called the meeting in Moscow to which we were not invited but nobody is objecting so far to the conference that has been proposed in Istanbul. But one of the conditions for that is ceasefire and if the elections are held, Taliban should participate in it. So, so including India as a partner in these negotiations was something that was welcomed by President Ghani, Taliban has not formally reacted but they are not objected to that. And if this meeting take place, this will be the first time that India will be talking to Taliban or at least in a conference where we would be participating in these discussions. So, since the US cannot disengage from Afghanistan unless this happens, this particular initiative by the United States is considered to be a way forward. But since this meeting has not taken place, we do not know what the shape of things will be. Mr Khalidzad continues as the special representative and the discussions in Turkey that is in Istanbul under UN auspices may lead to a solution to the Afghan problem. But the whole process, nobody can put a time on it, nobody can be kind of optimistic about the outcome because there are so many aspects to it. And the choice that Pakistan and Taliban will have is to have a Taliban dominated if not a Taliban centered kind of a government in Afghanistan. This will be a problem for us because last time when Taliban was in power in Afghanistan, they increased their terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir. They destroyed many traditional, many historic of the Buddha statues and then they banned music and children, women were not educated and therefore it was some kind of a primitive kind of a government that was there. So nobody wants this to come back, but we don't yet know whether Taliban has had a change of heart or not. But the United States seems to be determined to find a solution and that is where we are now. When the defense secretary of the United States, General Austin came to New Delhi the other day, he was not very sure as to what the length of stay of the US troops will be. So they still have not set a time limit, they have not set a specific plan, but Mr Biden would like to withdraw US troops on the first of May. And that is not very far away, it's only a few days later. And therefore the whole situation remains uncertain. Many civilians have been killed in 2020 alone, something like 3000 civilians were killed. The Doha agreement has not been implemented. And so there is a situation which is very, very, very complex. So we have to watch how the US proposal develops and US government has a certain amount of urgency and importance to this initiative. And so once this conference is held, then there could be more developments. But at the same time, the United States, Russia and China are consulting each other in order to find an agenda for the Istanbul conference. So on the one hand there is the Russian effort together with these people. And at the same time, you have the proposal for the Istanbul conference. And there is no clear path yet set for it. India is now going to be part of this exercise. As far as India's position is concerned, as I said, we have been involved in the reconstruction and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan in spite of all the chaos that was taking place. But at the same time, the hope is that the Istanbul conference will lead to some kind of reconciliation. And our position, India's position is that it should be a government of the Afghan people and an Afghan owned and Afghan led, Afghan controlled government is what we are hoping will happen. And the foreign minister of the Ghani government was in Delhi. They are happy with India's involvement and therefore they are expecting that India's participation will move the whole discussion to another level. But there again, the attitude of Pakistan is not known because if they find a solution then Pakistan will not be any more useful for the United States. Because at the moment Mr. Biden believes that Pakistan is a key country in this. And therefore it is necessary for the process to continue. But at the same time Pakistan would like to stall it because the more this situation continues, it might be helpful for Pakistan to build its strength with Taliban and try to bring about something that is acceptable to Pakistan. So our interest is basically to have peace in Afghanistan or the terrorist activities from Afghanistan should cease in Jammu and Kashmir. So ours is a very benign interest in Afghanistan because we have seen the suffering of the Afghanistan people for many, many years. Many foreign countries have tried to dominate Afghanistan and that's why it is called the graveyard of empires. Nobody could dominate Afghanistan, they are very good fighters. And therefore no foreign country has been able to completely dominate them including the Soviet Union which was a superpower of that time. So the history of Afghanistan is sad and the people have suffered for many, many years. Everybody is looking forward to some kind of a solution where there can be an Afghan government, it's a popular government, maybe through an election. Mr. Ghani may have to leave but still there could be a government and our interest is to see that it will be a balanced government and not an entirely Taliban government. So this is the situation I think we have to watch for what happens after this conference starts. But the initiative taken by President Biden is very decisive, very pathbreaking in the sense that new people have been brought into the discussion. And following the same agreement that was reached in Doha, Taliban has no reason to feel aggrieved because they are continuing to be a party to the whole settlement. But since they were removed from the government forcefully by the Americans, they would very much want to come back and that would be their objective. Pakistan's objective would be to continue to be a major factor in these negotiations. And our interest is to see that peace comes back to Afghanistan. And the United States would certainly want the troops to be withdrawn because they're still being accused of unnecessarily losing American troops in Pakistan. So this is the situation from the point of view of the examination. You should know exactly what the positions of these countries are and know the background clearly that if something happens between now and the examination, you might understand what exactly prompted the solution. So we can only wait and see what progress is made. For the time being, we need to just recall that the importance is that United States has promised to withdraw on the first of May, whether it would be possible. Otherwise there could be an extension, maybe Taliban will be asked to continue its ceasefire and then negotiations will continue. Thank you very much.