 Welcome everybody to NFA live not financial advice as usual. I'm joined by my distinguished co-hosts Guy from Coin Bureau and Ben from another crypto verse gentlemen. Welcome back to the show Thanks, Rob Yeah, you're welcome. Well. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah So we had a bunch of questions lined up and it was all about looking in the future And it was all about because when we kind of get into the the minutiae of the day-to-day operation We kind of get a little bit lost some time. So I wanted to just take a look forward into potentially March 2024 Unfortunately before we get into that We have to talk about the PCE and things like that and everybody if you're not already subscribed or don't know Who these guys are I doubt that very much But if you haven't subscribed to coin bureau clips is link in the description Also, Ben's got a nice little channel great information into the crypto verse So check that out But before we get into the questions about and we're gonna take a look at utility regulation and of course everybody's favorite topic Future price action. Let's talk about this and Ben since you tweeted this Tell us what's going on and how is this going to affect the market potentially looks like PCE just came in hot and not like a little hot like a little bit more than what it was headline 5.4 estimated 5 Core at 4.7 an estimation at 4.3. So Ben tell us wherever at what's happening And where we're going from here and then I'll talk to guy Hey, yeah, thanks So I think the general concern here is one of the things that we've mentioned before and that was that risk assets can do okay until you see one of two things right and one of those is the reacceleration of inflation or the deterioration of the economy and we hadn't really seen either of those Unemployment rate still at a secular low Initial claims just came in again yesterday. I believe that's another another week where they went down So the economy still seems somewhat resilient But because of that you're potentially starting to see the the reacceleration of of inflation Now the reason why that's important is because it's likely going to make the market Further reassessed or repriced what the terminal rate is and as of this morning The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike is now I believe at 33 percent 32.9 Yeah, 32.9. So it's giving it About a 30, you know, 33 chance or so, which still means the most likely outcome is 25 basis points But the more important thing I think to to look at and you can look you can see this on the cme group website Is that the market is now no longer pricing a cut this year The most likely outcome is just the fed goes to five and a half and stays there for the rest of the year And and you know, if you think back to where we were a year ago When we talked about the fed funds rate, we talked about, you know, hey, like they're probably going to get to five percent They might get to five and a half percent Um and for a long time the market has not believed that right and and rob if you want to click on There's a little thing on the side that says probabilities At the top top left Or this one or no a little bit down Yeah, probabilities So you can kind of see where the the most likely outcomes there are for for every month of the year And you can see that no longer december is is pricing in a rate cut anymore, which is a change I mean, that's not the the most likely outcome has basically just been a rate cut in december And now it's not the most likely outcome is is still at five and a half So my interpretation of this is essentially say is essentially along the lines of look Inflation is starting to re-accelerate a little bit, but if i'm if i'm honest with you rob like i i i think that I think the re-acceleration of inflation would be a temporary a very temporary thing Like it it might just last a few months at most I don't really see it surging for another like 12 months, right? I don't I don't foresee us going to new highs in terms of year over year inflation Like i'm not anticipating that but where it becomes a problem is the fed's reaction function, right? And and what the fed is going to do what I think they're going to do is they're going to They're going to remain too hawkish for too long And and the reason why that's an issue is because if they do that that's what could send us into a hard landing So I think that's the reason we have to Um Think about this stuff is will they will they go too high? Will it go on for too long and if it does then it just increases the likelihood that we see a more sustained Or a larger pullback in risk at risk assets in general So that's kind of I think where we are and and then if we do see the temporary re-acceleration of inflation The fed raises rates too high higher than they really need to to bring it down Then we we it could push us into a recession But recessions are are notorious for bringing inflation down very quickly and then you could get into a very rapid disinflationary process interesting guy same thing here and also i'm going to ask you another one Which is Just what ben talked about how you how you think about that and then is this good for what you're doing as far as your investment strategy for my investment strategy Yeah, I mean I think I've I've long assumed Uh that we that we would go lower from here. I mean it's it's a little early to to call that now just off the Just off the back of this figure. I mean the market isn't taking it too well But it's not taking it too badly either by the by the look of it. So Let's see how it plays out over over the coming few days. I mean it does it does seem to make a bit more Sense really. I mean I I think markets have been fairly irrational the last few weeks And I think this is a kind of timely reminder that That you know inflation is is still very much with us. It's not It's not going to just magically disappear because the Fed has raised rates and as ben says, you know, there are there are more rate rises coming So Yeah, it does I I I'm certainly looking for for it to go You know a leg lower before I'll be before I'll be looking to get in Um, so it works for me on it works for me on that score But uh, yeah, I think we just have to and I think in terms of in terms of rate rises, obviously Yeah, we could go it certainly will go higher from here and I guess really it's a case of how long Uh, the Fed decides to keep us there. I mean, I think figures like this just go to strengthen the the theory that the thinking that The Fed certainly won't drop rates this year It won't pivot this year, which I think is something people still seem to be clinging on to Um, and this just confirms that that's not the case. So there's I I guess there's a bit of certainty in there Yeah, I can I can see I can see your points and I gotta tell you when I saw when I saw ben's tweet I'm like at first I was I was thinking myself my great because this is what I really want to do You know as far as dollar cost average. I wanted to actually Buy thing buy things up But I got it isn't amazing how like we we have like this little mini Many bull run in a bear market and everybody's like it's over. It's that's it This is we're gonna we're gonna say it's a bull market and that's what it is And maybe it actually is but when you see numbers like this I think this is the test of time and we'll see how it all plays out But I gotta tell you if it keeps going up and the Fed Becomes more hawkish and uh, you know our friend Jerome Powell comes out and says, you know what? We got to really put you know put our foot on the throat of this You're gonna see the markets reacts and of course fed over reacts and then things go down. All right Well rob one funny thing too though is that this happens every cycle right in 2015 and 2019 We always we always get ahead of ourselves with a pump and then we always come back down You know and then and then later we go up and then we actually sustain it Ben but that's what everybody wants everybody like this is the thing on the channel like When I talk about positive stuff and just focus on the bull Everybody loves the videos but man when I go a little bit bearish people like rob is always talking about he's an old man Doesn't know so I'm like well, okay fine. So what we'll see how it all plays out. I'm just trying to be careful That's all it really comes down to All right, so that was a little bonus question for everybody Let's get into the the questions that we came up with so The thing I thought about this and I and I got these These questions really from from a couple of sources and when I was looking at Was guy put out a video and he talked about the craziest crypto hearing And this is this is congress as they came before and they were just I mean if you I I'll link this in the description if you want to see some pretty negative aspects of where Congress and regulations are going that was the hearing just just happened about eight or nine days ago And also ben put out a really great video cryptocurrency worst-case scenario It's about an hour long But it's great when you're when you're walking your dog You want to take a listen to something and it's also quite scary as far as the worst-case scenario So I thought to myself If these are the things that are happening now and a little bit in the future, let's just do that So the question starts like this. It's now march 2024 So what's the crypto market sentiment and how is the bitcoin dominance? And I will tell you right now that the bitcoin having clock at buy bitcoin worldwide Has a countdown not to say that this is the exact date because it's all by blocks But they're estimating it at march 28th 2024. So let's just say it's the first of march and before we get into any of this stuff me guy And then we are not fortune tellers. We cannot tell you what's going to happen or what it is So take this with a grain of salt. This is not financial advice. That's the whole point of this video So let's start with guy guy. Where do we go from here? What's the market sentiment and what's the bitcoin dominance as we go through 2023 whatever happened? You can fill in the blanks there into march of 2024 Thanks rob. I think by this point. I hope at any rate. That's the caveat there. I hope by this point We'll be coming out of we'll be coming out of a tough year rates will rates will still be high I would expect by this point by in a year from now pretty much I would expect the fed to have either pivoted or be talking very strongly about pivoting Like I say, I don't think we'll see a pivot this year, but especially after figures like today. So Yeah, I would imagine that that sentiments is starting to improve Of course markets are forward-looking. So any kind of positive positive signs out of that from the fed would would be enough I think to really kind of boy up sentiment in that regard And I think the I think the the narrative around the bitcoin halving. I fully expect that to to play out as expected and I think we obviously By this point assuming that the rest of this year is going to be pretty brutal or certainly parts of it At least are going to be pretty brutal. I imagine A lot of a lot of people will have been kind of shaken out There will be a lot of apathy around in the crypto market But there will always be a hard core of crypto enthusiasts of investors of people with infinite reserves of patients Like the three of us sitting around and and waiting for that sentiment to improve waiting for things to pick up and There will be more of us than they were the last time there was a halving. So I expect that to I expect sentiment to be improving and I expect people like us and and hopefully many others to be To be kind of waiting on the sidelines in that regard um Obviously This kind of assumes that we haven't had any more black swans this year I should say any black swans this year at all it kind of It makes a few assumptions like I mean, I hope the macro Landscape has improved dramatically. I hope for instance They by this point next year The the ukraine war will be looking like at least there may be some sort of peace in sight some sort of resolution to that That's that could be you know, that could be pure. Hope you're on my part um But I mean, yeah, I I am expecting to see an improvement after a year of fairly sort of Sideways price action for for bitcoin and the rest will we see a lot of bitcoin? A lot of a high level of bitcoin dominance I think so, but I think it will be tempered by the fact that That there'll be a lot of a lot of money in eith Possibly a lot of money in stablecoins, but again, I mean After what we've seen in the last few weeks with with regulations and that's I think going to be a big narrative For the rest of this year regulators coming after after stablecoin issuers um So yeah, I think a lot of that there's a good chance that a lot of that market cap a lot of that money that's sitting Currently sitting in stables could well have found its way into bitcoin by that point But like I say, I think eith will will will have taken some of that Especially if kind of ethereum's roadmap goes to plan if stakers are able to withdraw a little later on this year Again, assuming kind of nothing nothing particularly bad happens with ethereum So, yeah, I would I I would be anticipating A gradual lifting of sentiment a mood of much more positivity than than we currently have right now Not too bad. So, okay. Well be okay before we before we go on to ben Let me ask you this because I mean guy you've been around Even when did you first start investing in the crypto because I remember we talked about this in london, but it was What what 200? 2014 yeah, exactly. So I just I discovered it in 2013 and and eventually and eventually dipped in dipped my toes in in 2014 this was yeah, just after not long after mount gox collapsed Well, perfect timing because honestly it was at the lowest pretty low point So what just real quick because I wasn't around 2016 and that was the last that was you know, the we had a bitcoin having 2016-20 what was the sentiment like back then when we had this this bitcoin having coming up because I again I wasn't around. I don't know what it was like. I can tell you what it was like in 2020 but not 2016 I think it was as I remember gosh casting my casting my mind back a long time now I I remember there was there was an excitement about it and obviously amplified by the fact that the community was So much smaller than right. Um, I do remember there being some excitement around it But I think there was a lot less understanding of you know of what it actually meant at that point. So Yeah, and I think Yeah, it was it was a kind of all together slightly more lower key certainly than 2020 Yeah, because I remember and then I'll get to ben but I remember I had uh I had roger veer on the show a long a while back And he talked about the havings and how much he said because it was a smaller community There was a lot of excitement and of course when 2016 came around it was like gonna be the next big thing And then of course we all went through 2020 and that was like the big narrative But it's just kind of like it grew from I don't know what it was like in 2012 But 2012 2016 a little bit larger 2020 was enormous. I felt and then 2024 I think the sense and they're just going to be like, hey, this is the narrative, but I could be wrong. All right, Ben Sorry, let me let us. I'm droning on. Let me let me hear from you. What do you got for this one? As far as the having um, I I was actually optimistic going into the having in 2016 and then like right after it the price dropped 20% I remember that I was like, ah crap Because like normally after the having we just kind of go up right or at least I mean we'd only had one before that But I mean, you know in 2020 we just you know, basically just went up But yeah back then it we actually had a scare and then and then it went up So it was like maybe one last shakeout before the before it actually went on but um, yeah getting back to your your main question So it's March 2024 And so where are we? Where are we at? um So I guess to think about that I don't think about like what is our path between then and now Or between now and then and I think that And with in the context of the bitcoin dominance, I do think you're going to see the dominance go to Over 50 percent this year. Um, I would guess somewhere between 50 to 55 percent Is is where I think it'll be at sometime this year And do in large part Due to the uh to the devaluation of the ether bitcoin value, you know the ether bitcoin ratio And and some of the other giants like the b&b bitcoin valuation. We've already seen some of these fall I mean, you know, we've already been seeing three fall and then another reason it goes up is because people See the halving coming and they're like, well, let me get up my stable coins and put it into bitcoin You know, I mean, that's another reason the dominance can go up even if even if the bitcoin Uh, all coins stay constant on their usd valuations The dominance can still go up a lot as we've seen over the last three or four months I mean, we've seen bitcoin dominance go up not because the market was going down but because the market was going up But um, yeah, so I think you're going to see the dominance go north of 50 percent Next year and early 2025. I think we're going to see it at 60 percent to be completely honest I mean, we're two cycles ago. It was at 80 80 90 last cycle. It went over 70 I don't know why it can't go over 60 this time. I mean, you're still looking at all coin regulations You're still looking at At at people who got burned a lot. I mean in the last cycle and normally we have to remind ourselves We forget I think we forget about this a lot in early stages of the bull market Bitcoin leads, you know, just like it's we you know, just like it led the last couple of months Like you see what happens when bitcoin goes parabolic and everything else just gets left behind to some degree Um, and the dominance just shoots up very very quickly So I would sort of see it peaking around 60 percent, but not until late 2024 early 2025 So in march of next year though, so I think we're going to have one more scare this year And I think it's basically going to be nothing related to crypto. I think the contagion events have run their course um Maybe there's all coin regulation, but I don't think that's going to affect bitcoin In fact, all coin regulation might might be better for bitcoin. It might drive more money into bitcoin If if if people are scared about some of the regulations for the all coin market and the stable coin market for that matter too So I think that you're going to see one more scare Like we always see we saw it in 2015 in 2019 It actually came the second half of the year and then we had the the drop in early 2020 We also have to remember though the halving this time around is earlier And so it's going to be an early 2024 So my my sort of path that i'm thinking about again probably not going to happen just because it's so hard to predict Exactly what happens, but my path is that we we could see just kind of like a dull year Where we get kind of a slow bleed. I mean there's been plenty of excitement so far. So it's not But I think we're going to get somewhat complacent and an apathetic is my guess And we're going to get one more scare to really test the uh the resolve of of investors and Then by the end of the year So maybe by like q4 at the I think q4 at the latest Is when we start start the move back up because remember The the the train normally turns back around before the halving gets here not after it. So um You know whether you know whether bitcoin puts in a double bottom a lower low Right, we'll have to see but I do think no matter what you'll see the train turn around later this year Maybe q3 or q4 and and you know, maybe the fed does pivot this year It's kind of almost like now that everyone's thinking it won't happen um It could lead to The problem now is that it because markets are starting to believe the fed it could lead to um The the devaluation of risk assets which could lead to some type of credit event And if you get a credit event, it doesn't matter what anyone thinks the fed will pivot You know, I mean they have to at that point. Otherwise, they're not just going to watch the economy melt down right, so I I think that you're going to see a fed pivot either late this year or early next year and when that happens It should be all systems go for bitcoin Because we're going to it'll be back qe right. It's not that I don't really think it's that complicated to be completely honest We just don't like the fed I mean if the fed's printing money Risk assets go up if the fed's taking money out risk assets go down And in the same way that when we're printing money, we have we do have corrections, right? And we have 20 30 40 percent corrections even when we're in a period of qt Or in a period of qe when you're in a period of qt You can still see 40 50 50 60 percent problems, but it doesn't mean they're they're necessarily going to lead to new All-time highs until the fed pivots historically the stock market Doesn't bottom until until at least after the fed pivots. So I think that's what we're essentially waiting for right I mean, you know, I'm not saying that a dca strategy is not worthwhile I myself have picked up bitcoin over the last half year But at the same time, I I'm not I'm not really under the illusion that you know, the bitcoin's headed to new all-time highs this year I think that it's just going to be a really relatively apathetic year But by march, I think you're you're likely going to start to we're gonna I think we're going to start to come into a a crypto renaissance Type phase and and it and and the summer of 2024. I think could be really good for crypto I think altcoins will will be doing quite well by that point And because I because normally by that point after the halving right after the halving bitcoin sees a little pump Go sideways altcoins pop off So that's kind of what I think the sentiment is going to be is actually going to be quite good at the time I think we're going to be out from the the depths of despair Yeah, so you had just taken a look at like the 2020. I mean we had it I think it was in may May of 2020 was the uh, was the halving and look at that that year. It was a great year I love that year 2020. I mean we had a 9,000 then of course towards the end of the year We had gone up all the way up to 30,000 not that that's going to happen again But you know, like we see it here happen over and over again as far as the four year cycles, you know 12 16 20 and there it goes and then who knows what's going to happen next but I will say like well, there's two things the guy had a good point about the Stable coins if things start to drain out of the stable coins, especially with I don't know what's going to happen with I don't know what's going to happen with usdc and we know what's going to happen with the usd And they're going to go down and say we're not going to keep doing this unless paxos wants to fight the sec in court That that could happen mark cuba did it once so who knows But the thing that concerns me is that when we talk about the pivot This is the thing that concerns me we talked about before when the fed pivots Then of course we have a little bit of a drop off because they broke something They're going to we know they're going to break something. That's their pretty much their job So they do break something and then here we go now. We're going to have a downward side The question is then becomes when do they pivot? So if they pivot Let's say like not this year and then they pivot next year in 2024 And then the bitcoin halving comes around march. Maybe it gets pushed out to april Maybe it all is really just good timing because recessions last for how long roughly 10 to 12 months 14 months I'm around there and then maybe Because there's all there's usually an all-time high after that. So maybe in 2024 is just like what we saw I hope Over here, but again, who knows All right, so that was a tough one now. Let's get into maybe some of some other easier parts here Well until we get to the price action where everybody loves but this one altcoin utility so the the thing that I take a look at with with utility is and We're going to grow as soon as we get some type of Either a killer app or a killer utility something that we just can't live without right When there was a transition and I remember this transition from No internet to the internet It was a slow process because there was just first of all was slow There was a lot of lag and people didn't know how to use it Then when they figured it out and we went from like a web one or was just static to a web two We could actually interact with things and actually pay for things online. Then it really blew up So for me the question is this In March of 2024 have we found the killer app use case? And what are people actually using alt alt coins for and I don't And we're on the same page about you know NFTs NFTs that are just goofy little pictures are not going to do much for us to really bring mass adoption That's just for speculation. That's just my opinion anyhow. And then of course in march I mean did lightning take off did ordinals take off yet and are we seeing a bunch of layer two solutions? so what do we got and then uh Ben I'll start with you on this one Yeah, I mean I I think um As far as the alt coin market it's still I'm guessing most of it will still be fueled by speculation Of the dubious variety of course I do I mean I I think most of it is just going to be speculation but I do think we aren't getting to the point where Um, we are we are going to see real utility being developed. I I feel it to me It certainly seems like we've made progress from From where we were back in like 2013 to then 2017 to 2021 I think we're making progress and I think we're going to make even more progress Um in the you know in the next in the next cycle So I do think you will see more utility come out I think one of the one of the areas is is um is gaming I think there's a good a good a good case there to be made that we'll see some type of um Inclusion into the gaming sector, but again, it's important to distinguish that we need the gaming Industry to include crypto. We don't need crypto We don't need crypto bros going and creating some vs game and incorporating crypto into it, right? So that's what we need So I yeah, I think we're going to see more utility I don't really know exactly what all that utility is going to look like to be completely honest I mean, I we always want to speculate what the narrative is going to be for the next cycle But the truth is is like I don't think any of us would have like back in 20 like okay, so four years ago. So Uh 2019 I don't think anyone was thinking that NFTs were going to be a huge thing in the next bull run I mean, maybe you guys did but they weren't on they weren't on my mind at all. Um, You know, so like I I I do wonder I'm like, how how good am I going to be at predicting what the next narrative is going to be Because historically I I haven't seen the the NFT narrative Um, so why should I see the next narrative? I mean, I I do think a large part of it is just Growing adoption. It's slow, right? Time is on our side, right? That's why I always say time is on our side is just because there's so many people out there that are building During the bear market and during the recovery year that you're going to start to see All sorts of apps come out and and hey with with a high interest rate environment It's going to force us to innovate because with with less access to cheap capital Investors are going to be a lot more cautious. I think on where they put their money because it's not going to be as obvious Um, when you think about a yield like everyone wants to get yield And and if there is at least a risk-free rate that is as interesting enough for people to consider Then it means that the use case for the cryptocurrencies that they're investing in really have to be there To support, you know to support people's desire to get into those into those all coin projects. So Um, yeah, and yeah, I like how you clicked on the dominance not including Uh, or yeah, not including stable coins too because I I think that um, that's a better way to look at it but yeah, so I I I I'm not really I mean, I do think lightning will will do well ordinals I don't really have a strong opinion on to be completely honest I mean It's one of those things that I I knows popped up recently and everyone's talking about and everyone's excited about it And hey, maybe maybe that'll it'll take off Um, to some degree it almost feels like and I know this I'm not the first person I think this but to some degree you could argue that the all coin market is sort of like a test net for for bitcoin Uh, and and you kind of see the the exploration of NFTs and then and then eventually some of that stuff sort of makes this way on over to bitcoin Um, but again, I I'm not I'm not discrediting the all coin market. I think there's plenty of value there Especially a theorem. I mean, I I can't even imagine crypto without a theorem So I'm not I'm not trying to discredit that but yeah, I I think you're you're you will you will likely see some utility But I don't think you're going to see A A level of utility that's going to lead to like a completely new paradigm shift just yet, right? Like I still think look at what happened after the dot-com crash, you know, it took a while It took several years. I don't think it's going to take as long as the dot-com crash to recover to new highs Uh, I don't think it'll take nearly as long But it might it might take, you know, three four years before we really get that killer app to to sort of lead us into a a new um Just a completely new era for for cryptocurrency. I I just think right now it's And recession talk fear talk, right? We just got to survive this phase and and um I yeah the coming years. I think should be should be fun. Yeah, just survive. That's a big thing. All right Guy, what do you got is this? How I'm of course, I can't see it But but what do we see here? Like what's the next big thing or what is one of the one of the big things for crypto? Moving into march 20 moving into 2024 moving into 2023 or 2024 2025 I must say I agree with ben broadly on I don't think I don't think the time for for the killer app is is going to be quite upon us by that point I think there's still I think there's still too much work to do on the kind of infrastructure side on the on things like user experience user interface and and and things like that. I think One caveat to that could be though and this is something i'm going to be watching quite closely this year. There's a lot of online censorship bills being introduced and I think There's a big one coming to the to the EU in the in this summer and I think the I think the fall out from that could be fascinating. So one thing I am going to be watching out for one particular sector I'm going to be keeping an eye on is a decentralized social media I think I think kind of censorship overreach by governments that could that could Bring us a killer app or that could bring us a kind of killer use case But yeah, will we see will we see something in gaming? I'm not sure again. I agree with ben I think that could be a sector It further on in the future that could that could quite easily bring us bring us something Amazing something, you know a paradigm shift and I must say that I mean just kind of being out and about in the in the crypto community here in Dubai, I mean I've I've bumped into A lot of people who are building stuff over the last few months and a few people have been working on on games on blockchain games and kind of gaming ecosystems and They've shown me things like gameplay and I must say it's it's much better than I thought it would be I'm seeing some kind of genuinely impressive looking stuff. So I am I am hopeful in that respect I am I do think there is a lot of progress being made but If it's being made quickly enough for for this time next year that I that I don't think so so Yeah, I wonder whether a use case for for something like decentralized social media will be kind of forced upon us. Um I'm also I mean, I hope not But you know these I did a I did a video on our on our main channel about Some of these online censorship bills that are that are coming through the uk's working on one canada's working on one and Yeah, it's it's worth taking a look at because it's it's scary stuff and I I think as As people feel the effects of that they're going to be looking they're going to be looking for alternatives So it is something to watch um Another kind of narrative that I'm just going to be interested to to see play out come this time next year Will just be the kind of layer one landscape in general I mean We had this news yesterday. Didn't we about coinbase? releasing an l2 for ethereum, right base and And that I kind of that said a lot to me. I mean, I think that's Obviously that's big big news for ethereum and it has had me wondering over the past over the past day or so What's the what's the outlook going to be for other layer ones? I I I don't mean to say that ethereum Is going to necessarily crush all the competition in that but I mean Ethereum's growth is just so big and the the growth now of the of the layer 2 ecosystem and this news from coinbase just underlines it That's something I think is going to be interesting because Which which of these competing layer ones? Are going to survive? I I don't think all of them can um So I think that could radically reshape the the way the market looks or be in the process of reshaping the way The market looks come this time next year um I think that so yeah, that would be something that that i'm watching. I'm also yeah in terms of in terms of things like ordinals and lightning. Yeah, I I get the feeling ordinals is is a bit of a fad. I'm not sure I I I just find it difficult to see the bitcoin community kind of embracing nfts in that sort of way And I think lightning has has a lot more utility lightning. I think is something that's needed much more Growth on that has been pretty slow, but again, I I think I think that is that is something that could that could take off um So yeah, I think lightning is definitely is definitely worth definitely worth keeping an eye on I'm also kind of intrigued rob and I'd love I'd love to get your opinion on this because I know you've I know you've kind of looked into Sweatcoin a lot, but I think think you know projects like sweat coin these kind of move to earn the these ones that do appear to have You know some some good inbuilt utility. I'll be curious to see how they're doing You know whether whether they could whether they could drive a narrative next year But I mean what what are your thoughts on that? So well sweat coin first of all everybody Uh, I'm super biased on this channel. I only talk about the things that I own So if you're like, why is rob talking about sweat coin so much? Because I own a boat load of it. That's why so that's just as transparent as I possibly can sweat coin They have a pretty good model Because just like with us like you who are watching this video right now You clicked on this on this video and you probably saw an ad Hopefully it wasn't a scam ad, but there's an ad to be had so with sweat coin. They have it two ways They've been like the number Between number five and number one Health and fitness app globally for like the last three or four years They've been around for like seven or eight years total and all it is is they would They would put it into your phone. I got it right here You walk and you get these these tokens which don't really do much for you on the app But you can purchase like different little things or get a discount And of course you're going to see little ads and stuff like that So they monetize that part then they moved over to web three and they're like well those sweat tokens Not in the us of a because you know gary couldn't get me with He couldn't help me with block fi or voyager or sell cs or ftx, but darn it He really protect me from sweat coins. So thanks gary. So on that one Everybody else outside the us they can actually transfer that into crypto and they can use it for fiat fiat pairs So we'll see how that works out. But I mean, who knows I think it's going to do well But again, I'm super biased and I will say just a couple of things and this is like just a PSA for everybody But these gentlemen talked about as far as with the coinbase L2 solution that they came up with it because everybody's looking for base And it's not base protocol and I was looking at this yesterday. I'm like, why the heck did this Project which is ranked 2217 Is in the 2000s. Why did it do this? from Whatever the price is to all the way up to a year it wouldn't have like 200 percent It's because people thought that base protocol was what coinbase was putting out. They're like, oh, that's base. I'm gonna buy that It's not it's built on this it's built on optimism and there there is no token for For for base. It's just an l2 solution. So just be aware and I will say just to add on to what to what guy said Uh and ben is that as far as like the decentralized network? I I found this This is damas. I don't have any interest in in damas, but it is a decentralized I feel like it's like a decentralized twitter and I found this from the people on twitter who showed it to me And this could be the decentralized option. It's kind of Weird to get around but that is one of those things it could do and then the last thing as far as like the big utility This and again, I have no interest in in oshi But at the meetup yesterday at the sam won smokehouse The owner of the establishment steven says, hey, I want to show you, you know, because I was talking about lightning He was well, this is what we use They use oshi. They use the strike wallet strike, right And they you can pay for whatever it is Using this this oshi app and you get like bitcoin. It's not bitcoin cashback, but it's bitcoin satoshi's back And i'm like, why don't I have anything in my strike wallet? He sent me five bucks from the time that he pushed the button to the time you turn around I already had a five dollars worth of bitcoin. I paid for my beers Which was very cheap. Nice. And uh, and uh From from there, he goes, what's great about this is I can it can come to my Wallet and I can transform it into whatever currency that I wanted to be And I said, well, what is the transaction fees? He goes, there's pennies in the dollar pennies And I said, well, how does that work with the other one? And he talked to me and I know exactly what he's talking about if if you have a small business Online or or brick and mortar you're paying stripe or paypal or venmo or something else And you're taking between 2.99 percent or 1.9 percent per transaction fee You're paying thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars And even here we have one called atayace in portorico And that one is at 2.29 percent. That's what everybody uses because they're doing they're getting a great deal If they could do that That's the next killer app and I just see the problem is I think it was ben who talked about the user interface It's not the best so far. So once we figure that out, I think it'll lead to a bigger thing that in gaming I could definitely see and I could use that right now. That's just that I can't figure it out All right, so anyhow, so this part here regulations um And again, I got to go back to This video that that guy put out which was really good. It was about The crypto hearing again, this was he put out a day ago The hearing was uh, about nine or ten days ago And it was very negative and it really all centered around the crypto collapse So The question I have is then is this in 2024 are we going to get some clarity? Is regulation Okay, or are we still going to see some posturing? So guy, uh, I gotta start with you on this one Yeah, thanks rob. It's yeah that that that hearing was was pretty pretty depressing to watch. I must say and uh Yeah, it was it was tough and it just it just went to show a that there are, you know, some some strident anti-crypto voices out there And that there are you know the the battle on Capitol Hill the battle for you know for politicians who believe in crypto is Is ongoing and I think I think I might have mentioned this last time I think the whole business with ftx and sam bankman freed in particular has left a really A really bad taste in in the mouth of politicians in in washington, and I think that's going to take a long time and of course, you know Uh, his trial begins October this year if I'm if I remember rightly So I think by by march of next year. I mean assuming it isn't kind of all wrapped up fairly quickly By march of next year a lot will have come out. There may still be stuff playing out in that trial. Who knows? Um So I think that's something that that's something definitely worth considering and That could have that could have altered the landscape a bit quite a quite a bit because we I think we're going to find out You know, just how cozy Sam was with various politicians. Let's not forget. Of course he met with gary gensler many times Um, and there could be some interesting stuff to come out about that. So I'll be I'll be watching that closely Um, yeah, I think we probably will still see a fair bit of posturing a fair bit of just yeah I'm not I'm not all together confident That they'll have got their act together. Obviously by that point obviously 2024 is election year So they'll be gearing up for that. Um And I mean, I think one thing I noticed last year was I think the the the attention of politicians in the u.s. Did kind of shift away from crypto in order to kind of focus on the midterms And then sort of bang as the midterms are over ftx sort of came in to wrench focus back in in the other direction um So, yeah, I think I'm I'm not all together confident that uh, that there'll be any sort of Coherent set of regulations in place by this time next year. I think that will still be being worked through I mean will we have seen an end to the ripple case this? This is do you know, I I think we were talking about this a few weeks ago And I in on on one of these streams and I made a really flippant remark I said, oh, I think the ripple case will probably be wrapped up sometime around 20 27 And uh, at least two people in the comments. I'd noticed uh, took me took me at my word and we're like really you think 20 27 Sure. Yeah, I have that quote on my wall now guy That's why yeah, this is this is why ben is delicose averaging xrp So so thanks guy You know what's gonna suck about that that part right there someone's gonna splice that into twitter And oh man, I shouldn't have said that anyhow. Sorry guy. Good going. Stop giving you my ideas rob um Yeah, we'll so I mean will this case be over next year. I I I don't know I I don't know I mean, I think that it's with the judge now. I I I went and checked on Legal briefs, you know, Jeremy Hogan's channel where I've been doing my updates about About the sec case his his last update was was the finale and that was posted two months ago. So I mean, it's it's anyone's guess. What is what is going to happen there? um So yeah, I I think we're still going to see a fair we're still going to be having a fair bit of trouble with with regulators in the U. S And another thing that I'm Very concerned about is this is this whole business of operation choke points as well This this sort of concerted effort to cut crypto off from the banking system I think that has that could have some pretty severe ramifications as well. Again, this is stuff that I Kind of expect to play out over the course of this year And I hope there'll be I hope there'll be a sense that perhaps it's been worked through by by this time by this time next year, but Who knows sometimes sometimes a year can go by very very quickly Exactly. So yeah, we'll see how it works. But I've got regulations. I'm not too Enthralled or enthusiastic because I see the same kind of the same thing. I'll get to it But guy I mean guy Ben. So the same thing here regulations I mean, we're here in America. I mean, we see it We see it. Do you have any hope? In 2024 things like yeah, we're moving in the right direction You know, I think that you're going to see some regulations this year But my guess is we're still going to be And just stuck in sort of just wondering even in two years because I I think that these things just take so long to sort of carry out and It's weird to me that it's 2023 and there really isn't that much more clarity On crypto than there was even several years ago There's not a whole lot of of clarity on what our coins like are they securities? Are they not with regards to xrp? I could see a scenario where Neither side necessarily can tout or claim full victory But it could be a way that in which both sides sort of look at the more optimistic view from their perspective and claim victory But both sides somehow claim victory Um, I could see a scenario where xrp at its launch Could have been considered a security, but but then maybe maybe then it transitioned into not being one I don't really know to be completely else. I don't I don't spend a ton of time thinking about xrp anymore I mean, I I do have a I mean, I I did quite well with xrp in 2017 Uh, and then in 2020 I bought it like three days before the sec sued ripple. So, uh, I'm still a little bit upset about that but um I think that you're likely going to see some regulation come in this year But I don't think it's going to be like it's still going to leave us with Probably more questions than answers to be completely honest Um, it's funny if you look at if you look at the the the dominance of bitcoin, which kind of tells the narrative going back from Uh, you know bitcoin is sort of ruling to the altcoin market is ruling And if you look at it without stable coins, what you'll notice is that we've been putting in um lower highs But we've also been putting in higher lows as well You know, I mean despite everything that the dominance stayed higher and if you connect those points and and carry them out They they actually converge in 2026 So perhaps 2026 this was when we'll finally get clarity on on um the altcoin market or or not And you can kind of see it it you know just continuing to take several more years And the funny thing is this 2026 isn't even that far away, you know, it's it's just three years from now and three years go by Um very quickly. I mean in the end of the day. So yeah, I think you're going to see some regulation this year But we're still going to have a lot of questions. And then the other thing too is Uh, there's likely going to be new technology Developed in the next couple of years that we're going to be wondering how that's going to be regulated So even if they do regulate the market as we know it now They might not have been they might not have regulated the market as it might be in two or three years Just like if they had if they had provided regulations in 2017, you know, there wouldn't have been clarity on the NFT market when it you know when it came around So perhaps whatever the next thing is is Is going to be the sort of the question as to what's going to be regulated in the future But my guess some regulations, but we'll still have a lot of questions even in the next bull run Yeah, I can see it. I will I will say this so everybody kind of gets worried about Well, the government's so big and they can they can squash us and you know That we're just waiting around for them to just crush crypto so we can go to zero Remember, I mean in the in the days before the internet's I mean the telephone service industry AT&T and those those The large conglomerates back then took voiceover internet protocol It's a task and they lost that case and that's why we're talking right now Instead of like using a long distance phone call which used to cost, you know, four dollars a minute Now we're doing everything for free and uh, the world goes on so don't despair I think we got the better things ahead of us and I will say this as far as regulation I kind of agree Here but remember in 2024. We're gonna see a presidential election. I'm gonna predict it. I have a I have a feeling that Biden is probably gonna lose. I mean his his ratings are you know and and as as low as I think you can get And people aren't really happy with what's going on So I think he's a one-termer which means that there'll be a republican president whoever that is And I'm not very political. I mean if you want to destroy your channel just talk about religion And politics and it'll crush it So I I can see him getting out but remember republicans For right now that I see in the senate in the house They are the most agreeable for crypto and digital assets moving forward So if in 2024 that happens in the house of represent house of representatives They have their election as well Maybe probably republicans will add to that. I'm not for sure senate They get they get every six years the big sticking point though is Gary gensler who watches the show and he is there. I believe till 2026 So that's the bummer of it But I think Moving forward. I think we'll go in the right direction and that led me to my last point and our last point Which is this let's talk price. Everybody's here. They want to talk price So let's hear it. What do you guys think is going to happen for the price itself in march of 24 we kind of touch on this but Ben I'll start with you finish up with guy. What do we got? I think we'll be trending in the right direction at least And that's what people care about not normally the the actual price But is it going up right if it's going up everyone feels good no matter what price it's from I think if I had to guess again pure speculation right, but if I had to guess I would say by by early 2024 so like march april time frame around the halving I'm going to go with Let's say somewhere around 28 to 32 000 for bitcoin is my guess somewhere around that level But I also think that between now and then We're going to you know, there's going to be a phase between now and then where we go back down and and test The you know test the investors because you don't you typically don't get Because even even though I say 28 to 30, you know around that level, I think it's going to go higher than that Right. I don't think it's going to stop there But what's likely what I would what I could see happening is Sort of like sometime between now and then we get a massive a massive Actually, it could just be a slow bleed. I mean to be completely honest. It might not be a capitulation It could just be a slow bleed for a while And and it causes some people to capitulate and then we get into a slow move back up And then by by early 2024. Yeah 28k maybe 30k something around there I could see it hanging out around 30k for a few months Actually kind of like it did back in on 2020 as well it also hung out a little bit in 2016 and I'm hanging out there for a little bit and you'll likely see altcoins You know pop it off their lows, you know and doing quite well and You know everyone and including me getting on the altcoin bandwagon again And then and then I think we'll head higher right and this my my general guess But by by the having I would I would sort of think about Because if you think about where where bitcoin was at its at its last having it was around 8400 if I believe so somewhere between between two to three x off the low But we also have diminishing returns each cycle So I would say it could be it could be around similar levels off the low So like if I mean if the lows 15k then two two x off that's 30k if the low ends up being 12k or 13k then it could be the mid 20s or You know right around 30k, but that's my general my general expectation Okay guy before we get to you then I'm going to ask you about this one because in your worst case Let's just I want you to play it out for us. Everybody watch this this video worst-case scenario for crypto And I know you talked about july and august You see some some headwinds coming Are you talking do you think that we're going to go like it's like I said like lower And then 20 where there's going to kind of just suck and just be a slow bleed and then 2024 is the better year Or is there something between just to just to clarify I think this is the year where both the bulls and the bears get wrecked is my is I Is why I said like we all need to get sufficiently wrecked first before before we can go higher Um, and that includes the bears, right? Like that's an important caveat to it. It the bears The bears have to get wrecked as well Um, it just like the bulls do because again 2022 was just the bears get it or just the bulls getting wrecked And now I think it's both sides getting wrecked so the people that are are sort of waiting for the fed pivot We go through this phase where everyone's like, oh oh crap Am I getting left behind because I I didn't wait for the fed pivot and you see the market pump But look the nasdaq dump 77 percent of the dot-com crash and then pump 60 percent and then slowly led to a new low So it it could happen, you know, and if you take the time ratios between the dot-com crash And and what crypto has been going through it would put it would put us You know getting one final scare by the third quarter of this year. So I think Like my my gut tells me that we're likely going to start trending up In a sustained way like where we actually just keep putting in higher lows And I know some people might say we're already in that phase right and I'm not, you know, it's always a point to take but My my thinking is that you're gonna have to see you're we're gonna have to be back at at qe before we can really make that assessment I think So yeah, I think we're gonna see a a slow bleed followed by Um a slow increase into the halving probably some consolidation for a while And then and then maybe uh, hopefully another another parabolic run up, you know late 2024 sometimes 2025 Okay, so everybody remember that last phrase that ben just said we're gonna go on a run up in 2024 because all Other stuff people just hear sometimes people just hear like like the like the bear stuff like damn It's been so bearish, but then really you know, honestly in long haul ben is bullish guy. What do you have? Ben has been bullish, hasn't he? Yes. He's been very bullish this this stream. It's it's great to hear Um, I don't have an awful lot to add to that really. I think yeah prices will this time next year Definitely higher than now. I can see it, but I yeah, I can see I can see another crash or a slow bleed this year. I think we can certainly certainly test test those lows For a year from now my best guess for bitcoin would be It's quite a wide range between 30 and 40k Uh, I think I I haven't got the courage to to narrow my range as much as as much as ben has So i'm playing it very safe there But yeah, I think the excitement sort of building up to building up to the halving I think that can carry it sort of north of 30k But I don't think even if we're you know, even if we're hearing noises about qe even if the the general overall macro picture looks better Even if the regulatory landscape looks better I don't think that'll be enough by by that point to to push us You know anywhere past 40k, but certainly I think I think it's I think it's realistic to expect that That sentiment could have picked up enough to to be within that within that range by then Yeah, I'll just uh I'm in the I'll push back a little I think that's whatever you're I don't know if we're gonna go higher Than than what you guys just said 30 or 40k because I I gave a prediction in 2020 that bitcoin went 150k that didn't happen whatsoever But I will say this I think that's if regulation if it if it hits its tone We get some kind of clarity that'll boost a little bit the The war in ukraine I don't think it's just like the the war in iraq and the war in afghanistan people just it's just background Noise as time goes on and fortunately I have to say that and we were in afghanistan for 20 years I don't think it's going to be that big of a of a thing in the market. It's going to be awful for the people over there But as far as like price action, I The thing that concerns me is what we just talked about the pivot If they pivot and it's not this year and it's next year That means that the economy has really taken a big hit and they broke something And it's going to take a little bit of while for them to bounce back So maybe this time next year it might be even worse often. We've seen beforehand So I'm going to take a contrarian view but before we get into the q&a. I will just say this I really Again, I think I'm biased again because I'm dollar cost averaging and I want these things to go lower And if it does that's better for me. So maybe I'm wrong on that one, but it's just the truth All right, everybody. So those were the answers. Maybe not I like I think ben was the most bullish out of all of us today So, uh, yeah, yeah, so that that part is maybe maybe long term I'm not I'm not bullish this year. Okay. Yeah, perfect. So so we're good So what we'll do now is go in the q&a cap. We went almost an hour again. I don't know how we do this Ben's um Ben's bullishness makes this uh, this live stream, uh collectible So I think we need to mint it as an nft. All right. I gotta I gotta go double down on my worst case scenario videos now We're gonna put this on on an ordinal and then ben's gonna drop drop the worst worst worst case I'll see you guys. I'll see you guys at 13k Nice, I'll take it. So okay. So here's here's a suggestion and this was before the this room start Hi, can you guys please create a youtube playlist for nfa would make it way easier to keep track of this awesome format So I did that on my channel if you guys want to do that for a playlist for yours so much the better And then uh, just a good comment youtube playlist Okay, did it an audio and spotify for all nfa episodes, please. I don't know it's something we could think about I'm not I never got into the podcast thing because uh, like I um, we've talked a guy about this and it's not The greatest setup but whatever else here's a question. Can you answer this question if All the collapses had not happened last year ftx block 5 oasis Where do you think the mark will be today? It's a good question and because we only went as as low as 17 000 So do you think that we could have gone higher if it wasn't for just the shenanigans that were being played in the background with Uh, three hours capital and everything happened before I think we could um if you think back to where where crypto bottomed in june and then um, and then where equities bottomed in october And crypto was it like bitcoin? Was it like 21k and then ftx collapsed? But equities did not collapse during that time. Actually equities continue to moving higher And part of that I think is because net liquidity is was moving higher from like september up until about mid january mid late january since then it's been moving back down so fair warning But I think I think it could have been higher. I mean you could have already seen bitcoin tag Um slightly higher prices, but this goes back to the idiosyncratic risk of every individual asset class, right? So yeah, it could be just a bit higher, but I still think at the end of the day We're fighting a losing battle until the fed pivots Uh, I can see that guy. What do you think? Yeah, I think I yeah, broadly agree with ben again. I think perhaps we yeah, we wouldn't have seen quite Wouldn't have experienced quite the quite the pain quite the drops that we did last year But I think we would still we would still be be going pretty low because yeah because of what the fed's doing And because of what because of inflation etc Um, but yeah, it certainly wouldn't have been as painful as it was But of course On the on the flip side if those things hadn't happened all that all that crappy money would still be Kicking around in the system. It would just be lining us up for an even more painful crash later on perhaps So I think perhaps although it was although it was painful. It was it was necessary I'm glad we've I'm glad we've got it out of the way. I hope I hope that's it Yeah, I hope that's it too And then this is a good comment from august the war is not background noise living in europe russia maybe going to modova and it's true So if I uh, I will rephrase that it is not it is awful for everybody around there And I feel sorry for everybody. I've been through wars and uh, nothing ever gets accomplished. I was for sure Uh, last couple ones Robbie Would you guys admit to being too us centric in your economic analysis? I'll just say for me And because I again, I'm a homer. I live here and uh, and I will just say that It's because it's the things that I know and that's some of the one of my faults Sometimes I take a view as an american citizen only and not in different places So yeah, I do but you gotta remember. I mean if america goes away It's not like crypto goes away. It'll just back him over to another place It's just that we lose a big chunk of of funds because america's one of the is the richest Nation in the entire globe So what do you guys think? I I am happy to yeah, I I do admit. I probably am a bit too US centric I should I should look elsewhere, especially as I'm you know, I'm now based in in the middle east um, which is where uh, so much of the adoption is happening So perhaps I should focus on that but again, you can't get away from the fact that the the world Very much follows what what comes out of the us So, I mean we we have discussed this my team and I before it's like do we you know Should we cover what the fed is saying this week again? It's like well Yeah, because The effects are going to be felt and if we if we felt that wouldn't be the case Then we wouldn't cover it. But um, yeah, I mean, I do admit we we do focus on this a lot, but for for good reason yeah All right, then anything on that one just like yeah, that's true. No, I mean I Maybe we shouldn't talk about more about other other Countries, but at the end of the day, I mean like the US economy is is the strongest and um, that's where a lot of the money is so I and I mean I I live here. It's what I'm surrounded by. Yes. Maybe I'm an ignorant american but I mean this is This is where a lot of the a lot of the um, a lot of the stuff happens So I I think it's important to focus on and I and also I would say too like I focus on what I What I think I'm actually better at understanding like I I would not be great at talking about like You know, you know monetary policy coming out of china or other places like I don't spend as much time studying it That's true. All right. So guys, we're going in quite long. It's an hour and three minutes I'm gonna stop it right here. So everybody. Thanks so much for stopping by. We appreciate it Again, you can find coin guy at coin bureau clips where he does a bunch of livestreams Which are pretty entertaining do you like them and then also been over into the cryptiverse That's it for today. So guys, thanks for stopping by appreciate it. And of course, we'll see you in the next one See you See everyone