 Welcome to Tickmill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing November 18th with me, Patrick Munnerley. The dollar lost some momentum after a two week run of gains but it's still lacking tangible negative catalysts so it may be able to retain some of its strength over the coming week. Looking at the US calendar, the FOMC minutes from the October 30th meeting will be released and will likely attract most attention. However, the substantial flow of FedSpeak in the past week, giving Fed Powell's testimony, may have diminished the surprise potential of the minutes, which should anyway confirm the well-established notion that the Fed will pause at least until the end of the year and probably well into 2020. True, the US data has been softening a little but the industrial slowdown is well priced so far and the US consumer, like consumers elsewhere in the world, seems to be holding up fairly well. The dollar closed at the lows on Friday. I'm now looking for an equidistant pullback to test support down to the 97-60, 97-80 area. There's a window there for buyers to step back in and give another leg higher to test the anticipated 98-80 to 99 resistance level. However, if we don't see bids emerge at 97-60 then I'm anticipating a move down to test the ascending trend line support at just below 97. I look for a failure there this time to actually see a move lower to test the 96 target of the broader ABCD pattern. While we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with Gold. Gold broke down through the support at the 14-80 area and now it looks poised to make a test of some confluence support area at the 14-40 to the 14-30 area. I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns in this area to potentially set long positions targeting initially a move back up to the 1500 level. In Canada, the downside risk stemming from September retail sales and the October CPI should continue to indicate that the core and headline inflation are both around the central bank's 2% target. Gage has stroked in three of the last four months and another four may fuel expectations of a BOC cut as soon as December. As long as markets keep taking baby steps to price in BOC easing, benefit from trade optimism by any major breakthrough in US-China negotiations may continue to be mostly offset by the deteriorating rate outlook. From a technical perspective, the dollar CAD has tested the symmetry swing resistance and sellers have stepped in. I'm now looking initially as we head into the first few days of the week for a test back towards the 131.80 area. The failure for bits to emerge here would suggest that we will likely see a retest of 130.50 support and the failure here will open the ultimate downside target of the descending trendline support down to 128.80. However, if we do catch a bit of the 131.80 then I'm looking for another leg of upside to ultimately test the 133.30 resistance level. In the Eurozone, the focus will be preliminary on PMIs out on Friday. In line with the market consensus, it appears that the market is positioned for a marginal rebound in a battered manufacturing gauge, possibly supported by a mitigated downside risk stemming from the trade wars. However, we have seen how minor improvements in Eurozone data are struggling to really drive sustained upside, which may therefore leave the Euro in no man's land testing the 110.50 area. A number of speeches by ECB officials, including one by President Lagarde on Friday, complete the calendar, although the bank's recent cautious approach when it comes to policy related statements and Lagarde's focus on team building activities suggests little room for fresh policy initiatives and the effects market impact at search. The Euro recovered from the 110.00 support area and now looks poised to initially test 110.70. This is an area between 110.70 and 111 where sellers may re-emerge and ultimately look for a test down to the 109.60 to 109.50 support zone. However, if the offers in the 111 area don't prove sufficient, then we can see a retest of the 111.80 on route to the ultimate objective of the ABCD target at 112.50. As per Friday's update, I am long the Euro and holding long positions currently risk-free. While we're talking about the Euro, let's check in with the DAX. We duly tested the 13,300 level and we've seen some profit taking and consolidation. Whilst this 13,300 caps, there's the potential for a pullback to test 12,800 as support before a potential another leg higher. However, a failure at 12,800 will open a test of the monthly pivot back down to 12,600. In the UK next week is pretty light in terms of market moving events. Data-wise, PMIs may point to further manufacturing weakness, but should once again have limited market impact. On the political side, the first television debate between Mr Johnson and the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will be the highlight of the week. The general perception of who comes out as the winner may affect some market expectations, although more opinion polls are probably going to be the major driver of the pound over the next few weeks. From a technical perspective, the sterling pound is testing the descending trend line resistance at 12,920. A close over here will be a bullish development, opening a move back through 130, taking out the stocks above and ultimately I'll be looking for a test of 132. However, if the 129.30 does cap on this third attempt, then I look for a pullback where we retest 127.20 as support and once again I'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns in this area to set long positions, ultimately looking for a move through 130 and like I say up to 132. Only a break of 127 will concern this bullish bias opening move down to test 125. After some recent sharp dislocation, the Japanese government bond market looks a little more under control, helped by a rally in US treasuries. The BOJ probably doesn't mind the JGB sell off too much, given its preference to steepen the yield curve and help the local banking system. By having a surprise breakdown in US-China trade negotiations, coming week should be a reasonably benign one for the dollar year. Japan sees October trade data and also the national CPI figure for October. The latter Israeli market mover and the core rate expected at 0.4% year over year is still miles away from the BOJ's target. Equally, the market doesn't really believe the BOJ's threat to take rates more negative. In fact, the BOJ has led the way in tiering of deposits to protect the banking system from negative rates. From a technical perspective, the dollar year has once again tested support at the 10830 area and bits have emerged. As 10830 caps the downside, look for a move back up to test 10950 and a breach there will open the long awaited ABCD target at 110. However, if we fail to break higher from Friday's reversal, look for a breach of 10830 to open a test of bits below 108. After depreciating more than 1% versus the dollar this week on the back of poor labor data, the Australian dollar is now facing a period without significant data releases. The RBA minutes from the November policy meeting to be released on Wednesday will likely reiterate the now familiar leaving the door open for more easy narrative. However, the latest employment data likely makes the economic assessment in the minutes outdated. Hence markets are expecting limited impact from the release. Next policy meeting is set for the 3rd of December, which seems a bit early for another cut. By that day, the RBA won't have received any more input from hard data, so major deterioration in the external backdrop will likely be needed to prompt any more easing. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has tested support at the 6760 and bias Now looking to see if we can get a breakthrough 6830 to inject further upside momentum, looking then for a test of the 6930's resistance, and ultimately we have an ABCD target up at 1725. So if we get a close above the near term view out on Monday, then I'd be bullish this pair looking for a retest of the 6930 initially and then on towards the 7030 level. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 18th of November.