 Hello everyone, welcome to the Mad Mac dialogues today. I'm here with Leo also known as the Swedish historian I highly suggest you subscribe to his channel and today We're going to be talking about the pros and cons of letting Ukraine and Georgia enter into the NATO alliance So how would you like to begin this? Right. So if you think about Ukraine and Georgia, they're both pretty peripheral nations They both border Russia as their main Neighbors and they're both kind of in this NATO-Russia conflict for the last few years the case of Georgia since 2008 and in the case of Ukraine since 2014 Invasion of Crimea, right, right? So Russia came over in the annexed it and there's also they also have some of their military over in the Duznetsk and Luhansk. The politics in Ukraine have also been very influenced by ethnic tensions and Whether they want to stay with Russia or whether they want to integrate with Europe But it seems that in modern Ukrainian politics, they have been shifting much more towards going with Europe What do you have to say about this? Well, I think that's basically right, you know there's a big difference between Eastern and Western Ukraine historically, but those views have also harshened over the years as this war with this kind of like Proxy war with Russia has been going on a lot of people has turned towards joining the West outright so I checked from a couple years ago and it's about 70 plus percent that wants to join NATO and the like and the government wants as well But of course this also spells a lot of conflicts I've seen the statistics saying that but I the main concern when it comes to joining NATO for a country like Ukraine is I think it's article five of their treaty states if one allies Invaded then it's an invasion on all and they must come to defend it I don't think many countries would really be willing to defend Ukraine when while they were when they admit them to the Alliance, so what do you think would happen if they join would the allies actually Follow through with this part of the treaty or is it not worth letting them in? I think to a large degree. It's not worth fighting over the parts that are already lost So I don't know if the French military and the British military and the US military would necessarily want to go into Crimea and those parts, but I do think there's a lot of will to kind of prevent further losses. So one of the things that has been discussed is letting them in but not Doing so the article five covers the conflict regions right now. So that's the part that I'm more sympathetic to Yeah, I think that Ukraine has a lot to gain from joining the Alliance Especially protection, but they may have to do a bit of bargaining and after they may have to compromise With Russia and like let go some of those lands before they join Yeah, so I think Ukraine it's kind of stuck in this limbo right now, right? So it has this conflict It's has these ties to Russia, but it also has some ties with the West and Right now it's it can't grow its economy It doesn't really know quite what to do and it's kind of left out in the cold So something really needs to changed for Ukraine Well, it's interesting because Russia. I mean I respect Russia a lot But to a certain degree let's say I mean I think that the partnership between the United States and Russia is almost necessary going forward But I'm gonna speak in the present here or if Russia is trying to gain Ukraine and Georgia on its side But the way it goes about doing it is they're doing it all wrong because they're repelling The countries that they want as allies away from them both of those countries used to be part of the Commonwealth of independent states I was created right after the Soviet Union fell But then with the subsequent invasions of both those countries they've left like They're not doing a good job of getting them on their side by being aggressive towards them Yeah, and it's kind of been a loss for Russia I mean they've lost a lot of Eastern Europe that hates them now Poland and circled Baltic states and I think big degree of Russia is very fearful losing more influence So that's part of why they went in in the first place and a lot of it has to do with their demographics too because they have a very low birth rate and if they can't get their demographics under control, they won't have enough people to actually Get those lands back under their control in the future But not only that, you know have such a large elderly population such a small young population that they'll turn completely inward due to their economic problems Yeah, it's it's really a free strike against Russia. There's so many problems coming and I think a lot of the solutions that Russia are going for is they're pushing too hard when they need to be a little bit softer But it's also kind of it's gotten to a point where they've burned so many bridges that they don't really know Quite what to do. It seems like to me. Yeah, they're not really gonna get Ukraine and Georgia back onto their side At least for another half century. Those countries are some of the strongest pro-West Pro-American countries. They're all out there these days. Yeah so kind of one thing that's been a big problem for NATO and West is how Russia's been Going into these countries and it's kind of soft blocking countries by Occupying so that they can't join NATO, right? So you talked earlier about Article 5 and how if someone in Sweden where there's conflict everyone's brought in But the flip side of that has also been that Russia starts these cold conflicts that then kind of locks them out of The Western system. So I mean with Georgia you have a calcium and South Ossetia, right? So they haven't hasn't happened much there for pretty much Over 10 years, but it's still kind of they're out there and nothing's happening in in Ukraine It's the same and this kind of salami slicing or like soft veto rights is I think Pretty bothersome to a lot of the nature countries, but they also like you said Why would a Frenchman fight for Ukraine? I'm not talking about morally like they wanted uphold shared values like democracy But in terms of actually security interests Russian Allied Ukraine is really not an issue for France as much as it would be for see a country like Poland or Romania Eastern countries like the Baltics are the countries that care more Because they already border Russia and they could use some less pressures But if you go further and further away, it's kind of like Why are you disrupting these business ties and why are we fighting for people? We don't know and when Russia is a lot more committed than we are personally Yeah, and these countries can't really do a whole lot because Their entire foreign policy is completely influenced by Russia's strings because if they say the wrong thing or They do the wrong thing than Russia can just easily Go in and intervene. Yeah. Oh, I was actually gonna say something interesting about Georgia. They I've talked about Georgia actually in a few of my videos First of all in the video that I made specifically about Georgia and then in the one I made about Turkey becoming a great power there is a chance that Georgia would actually opt to have an alliance with Turkey against Russia because Turkey actually respects Georgia's Territorial integrity and Georgia also has a great alliance with Azerbaijan So they may ally with each other against Russia, but this could be bad news for Armenia Yeah, for sure. Armenia and Russia has pretty big ties But like for Turkey I mean, they kind of have that on-off relationship But for them if they could have Georgia joined it would put a lot of pressure off them personally as they wouldn't be the only NATO country in the Middle East For sure, so I could see that Yeah, the way I see it though is that Turkey is trying to gain influence in a lot of these countries and they're Almost starting proxy war I predict that there will be many proxy wars between Turkey and Russia in the future like Ukraine might be another example because Turkey is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and Turkey may also have interests in the Balkans like with Kosovo and Russia is allied with Serbia So I could see something happening there, but also in the Caucasus and they've even central Asia Right because I mean there's so many like of the Turkey people everywhere and Turkey's been reasserting so many of the powers. So there's so much potential for Turkey pretty much anywhere now Yeah, ever since the Soviet Union fell a lot of these Turkic majority areas have become independent and Turkey has been able to use its leverage to get them on to their side. Yeah, I do wonder about like I think Central Asia is hard for Turkey to kind of break into because it's such a Like a high conflict Area that's been fought over for between like China and Russia But I do think the potential for Turkey is like he said It's pretty much endless and I think they're taking a lot of that potential and influence and like Syria and Iraq in pretty much anywhere they can find it these days Yeah, Turkey may protect Islamic interests in Central Asia Because the way I see it is China is probably gonna win out there But if Turkey wants to defend the interests of the Islamic minorities there then well We'll call them minorities because they'll be under Chinese influence Then Turkey may send in some troops to help them out there I don't see why they would allow their Turkic brothers to come under a country like China Which actively persecutes Turkic peoples within their own borders currently. Yeah, right the Turkey brotherhood But Turkey has mostly stayed silent about the Uighurs currently But I'm thinking that once China comes closer to their doorstep Then they'll take a much more aggressive stance against that And I don't see you really Turkey and China having any partnership in the near future Interesting. Yeah, cuz I mean Turkey is really that gateway between like Asia and Europe But they also have so much In those parts of Asia, I do wonder how much Chinese influence will grow in these parts of the world It seems like China's is rising and rising but meanwhile they have all these issues with demographics and You know the legitimate of their government is based on GDP growth So there's so many of these things and same with Russia that makes you wonder like what's going to happen in the future I think the as I explained in my last video Russia and China just so insecure About themselves because they know that an impending crisis is coming because the demographics are just gonna kill those countries And they need to get a grab on the land and the resources as quickly as they can Right you grab it and then it's locked and then no one can touch it Even if you grow weaker. Yeah, I see China is maybe gaining a small sphere of influence in Central Asia and maybe Siberia, but that's only if they can succeed But as I described it's just so many factors that will go into that that Even though it seems like a logical possibility. I just think they're gonna mess everything up. Yeah, I mean, yeah for sure There is the Belt and Road initiative, but I mean China does have kind of tendency to push their luck a little bit Like Russia Like they have such a big domestic audience that they need to kind of show that they're doing these things in order to Kind of prove that they're the right government and prove that they're doing the right things So sometimes things end up insulting or being too hard on who could be their friends really Yeah, they have a lot of they a lot of their closest neighbors are enemies Japan South Korea, I don't know South Korea is not as big of an enemy, but still it's more allied with the United States and of course India is a big enemy and then Vietnam and All the countries in the South China Sea like China is just such an aggressive neighbor. They don't want to Be part of it. They are actively fighting against Chinese influence If China messes up its relationship with Russia, then they're done because they're surrounded on all sides basically by enemies Yeah, it's real true. They have pretty much a border dispute with every single neighbor of theirs Have you seen the Caspian report video on that? Oh, yeah You made me think about that They've got so much stuff going on. I think it's almost like a power play They're just trying to tell those countries that they are the dominant Country in the region and their culture has been spread to all these different areas and therefore all its surrounding nations should respect its authority Right, but when you demand respect, it's also kind of Has the potential to backfire, right? That's true Yeah But I mean in the case of China, they have all these this money while for Russia. It's kind of They're kind of running out of the money China's economy is growing for the time being I don't see it growing in 20 years But yeah, it is hitting stagnation and their demographic problems Couldn't be worse. Like I can't think of another country. Maybe besides like Belarus and Ukraine that have such serious demographic problems Yeah, for sure. So, I mean like some of the issues with like Ukraine and Georgia Journey NATO and these things is kind of people talk about it pushing away Russia Do you think Russia can kind of be Gotten back into the fold, you know, kind of ally with the West again. Do you think that? Yeah, because they might want to that it would be for Russia's interests to be allied with the United States However, I don't see how they would want to do that if Ukraine and Georgia are NATO members. I think that Russia would be very Indignant about that in many respects. I see Ukraine and Georgia is almost leverage for the West to I Don't even know give to Russia If they desperately wanted Russia on their side if China was just getting out of control They might use those countries say hey, you can bring your military in here as long as you ally with us against China Yeah, that's really interesting Yeah, there's there's so much potential there. I mean in many ways It's such natural like allies if they just overcome the differences with like Ukraine and part of Eastern Europe there like they both really much fair China and the West isn't really interested in Central Asia It's only pretty much East in Europe. That's a big conflict zone. And of course, I mean Middle East and other parts But it's too many ways. It kind of seems like it could be overcome to me Yeah But it also seems like the the main or China could actually open its own front in the Middle East like its own Neighborhood of allies like it already has Iran on their side. I don't see why Russia would Not try to defend its interest there because Iran is literally on Russia's doorstep And if they are allied against each other, that's just another window for Russia to that's just another weakness for Russia like in all seriousness The United States and Russia need to stop their quarreling Yeah, there's there's so much potential there Exactly So I think that's about enough. I think we did a great job today. All right. Thank you Yeah, it was a little bit hard for me. I'm not really used to doing it like this, but It's a little bit. Okay. You did a great job. Thanks. I thought it got a little bit interesting there with the end Yeah, we should continue this in another video. I'm gonna be doing like the regular Geopolitics videos every for every two weeks now and one of these videos on every other week, too So I hope that you will be in one of these upcoming interviews again. All right, try Yeah, man, we're really cranking out that contents. Yes, sir All right. Well, good luck with that. You're doing a great job. It's a channel. Thank you And I wish you the best of luck for your channel, too. Yeah, I should get back to that Doing that All right. All right. It's been great. I'll see you next time. Yeah. Thanks, man. Bye