 The YouTube one should now be running. Morning, Marius. Marius, done mic test. I am still playing with this mic, so I've moved it a little bit further away. I hope it's not too boomy. If it's too boomy, I'll bring it back closer. And good morning, everybody. Welcome to Wednesday, the 11th of October. Yep, another market moving day coming up, I think. We've got some major news and we'll get to that. That's the PPI. We'll get to that when we do a quick rundown on context and prep. October 11th is my youngest daughter's birthday, so I've been doing what professional traders do not do, which is spend about two and a half hours building a multi-layer, or baking a multi-layer birthday cake today. So that's something different that I do not normally do. Anyway, I hope you're having a good week so far. Let us do the disclaimer. All book mat limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures, equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, okay? With that said, let us go to the charts. And by the way, I am testing out appearing. So I'm here. You can see me, I'm slightly transparent against book map, but I am here. And just, yeah, sometimes it's good to see me look you into the eyes when I actually say something so you can work out for yourselves whether you think it's worthy of belief or not. As always, I'm not here to sell anything. I'm just here to provide some analysis and to provide some information or education or entertainment as we go along. Let us go to the slides and we will do just a recap again. We're doing this structure. So for the first bit, we're gonna do the prep context. Before the 830 PPI release, I'm gonna try and squeeze in some education ideas for about 15, 20 minutes if I can. Okay. So, yeah, having a look at the economic calendar going forward into today, obviously the main one is the PPI and the core PPI. I've included in the screenshot today just the expected numbers in case when I have the financial juice audio feed on it, 829, 50 or whenever I turn it on, you hear those numbers so you can see them against that. So in other words, the core PPI is expected at point two and so is the PPI. Okay. Obviously this week, we have had a bit of a turnaround. We've got some excuses or rationale or reasons that are given in hindsight. I think two of the main themes that have come out are that the Fed is looking to be softer on interest rates going forward and also China is talking about a new stimulus. So, yeah, those are the reasons but as you can see, there's been a bounce. I've taken off the multi-month uptrend line that was clearly broken. I may put it back on in due course and I put on a downtrend line for the time being to see whether that stays intact if we do get up there and note that the 50-day moving average is close to that downtrend line. So again, it would be a no great surprise if we kept ramping towards it. And the same with the NQ, we're probably at that 50 already. I haven't checked. This week, and I've put the entire week's movement for the stock keep map. So you can just see the big boys over here, the Microsofts, Googles, Apples, even though it may not be reflected in yesterday's one-day rate, raise of increase over the whole week. They're all up massively and Amazon too, which is a good turnaround for it because it was down towards the end of last week. In fact, it was the weakest of the big five, six, seven. So, yeah, all the ones that have been driving the market upwards this year are all up significantly. Okay, and the 15-minute chart. And again, the purpose of this, as I keep saying, is to see where we are in ETH vis-a-vis yesterday's range. So we've got yesterday's globe X high, low, and the daily high and the daily low. Where you can't see the yesterday's daily high, that's because it's the same as the globe X high. In other words, that is superimposed on top of it. And so we've basically not gone under yesterday's middle. We've gone under a tiny bit, but we stayed in the top half of the range. And we then queue, yeah, again, we stayed in the top half of the range. And yeah, they probably got yesterday's globe X high within their sites. So that's one thing to bear in mind coming into the 830 news. Okay, with the two TPO's, and I can always drag in the charts, the only thing I've done differently here is to actually highlight what I often highlight, which is going into the ETH session. I take the last value distribution or the last normal distribution, I wear where there was significant traded value and highlighted it with a lilac or light purple rectangle, just as a guide to see whether it's one of those days that ETH just stays in the range or we're breaking out. And you can see there on ES that it is breaking out and is warming value above that, above the last value of RTH. So that's the afternoon. If I split that up, I can't split up a screenshot, obviously. If I split that up, you'd see that was the last afternoon value, just that area there. So it's interesting though that we have got a nice fat or poor high in ETH and maybe they'll push that a little bit higher with that news. Again, we cannot predict the future. We do not know what is gonna happen with 100% certainty. There's just a probability above 50% that that is not going to be the high for the ETH. That's just one of those things, but we'll have a look over at the book map liquidity map and see what there is above it should they wish to go any higher. Okay, let's get the stream back on. So let's do what we normally do in ES in the heat map, which is to zoom out vertically and have a look at what's above and below and paying more attention to the actual numbers in the order book column than we do to the orange or red in the heat map coloring. Remember, the heat map coloring is automatic, whereas the numbers are objective and they are real. Okay, so in other words, these colors are gonna change depending on whether I zoom in or out. And you can have an orange level, which may be 135 today and yesterday it may have been 335 with exactly the same shade of coloring. It's just worth remembering whenever you are looking at those colors to bear that in mind. Okay, so in other words, we've got some liquidity above and below. So below you've got this 168 at 4385. Numbers are even small for me. Maybe I'll get my reading glasses on. And up above you've got 442650. You've got 200 or so, 4426 probably, just around about there. And if you look over at the three minute chart just zoom out and you can see that, as far as ES is concerned, if the gray shaded is the one SD of VWAP, which is a proxy for value today, which applies equally in ETH and RTH, it's the whole session since 1800 hours New York time, we have basically held above that value. So if I'm saying that the dark gray shaded is value, we are above that value and we've stayed above it. If you scroll back to yesterday or the, or if you look at any trend day or any trend session in ETH or RTH, you'll often find that when they do break out of value, a really, really strong trend will maintain that breakout of value. In other words, it will hold in these lighter shaded areas for a long time for the entirety of the trend once it gets going. So it's just that that is the only reason I've got it there. It's not to take a trade when we dip back to value. You know, it may on this occasion have been a good place, but there could be lots of reasons why that would have been a good trade and we can look back at the London open. In fact, yeah, let's do that in these charts. Okay, I think if there's one thing that should be obvious around about London, I mean, London is three o'clock, both here and there. Maybe I'll get out the pen. Let's get out the pen. So yeah, I do use a pen and a tablet, like I say. And now you can actually see me hold it. So if we have this being the reversal point, both for ES and NQ, one thing I just want to point out, and this is again something that I pointed out, you know, several times, maybe it's many times now that they do love to come and tag settlement. And the magenta or pink line, which is this one here or this one here, is settlement. And in Trading View, that's actually accurate now. It didn't used to be accurate, but that is accurate. And why do you have both of these charts here together? It's because it may tag the settlement in one and have a big reversal and it may not quite get to the settlement in the other. So that is something else that is quite common. So you'll say, oh my God, NQ didn't quite get down there. And that's why we need to look at them both in tandem. We can't say with any conviction that one is always driving in ETH over the other. It could be ES today, it could be NQ tomorrow, but it's nice to know that they're both approaching settlement and they both had a big reversal of it. So in other words, if you're looking at the supplied demand type trades for here, you've got on the three minutes, you've got a spring just there and you've got another spring just there, which if we did go back to book map, that would probably be a lot easier to see. In fact, let's try and do that. So let's get on the cursor and try and do that. I'm just conscious of time again, that's probably why I am speaking so quickly. And let me just check everything, it's okay on YouTube. As I always say, feel free to post any questions or comments either in the Discord channel or in the YouTube comments. So I can see them, I've got them on my screen. So if you see me look up there, I'm looking up at the YouTube comments, but there aren't any, but I'm just seeing how many people are there and whether they are having any issues. Like I saw the other day where I did not have this screen turned on, so maybe you could actually see it. So I'm just looking, yep. So what's interesting is that they had this liquidity and yeah, maybe the easiest thing to see in this one was this spring here. So we get the pen back and running. It's not quite as perfect as my favorite, which is where you have a spring right into heavy, heavy, heavy liquidity. That isn't the scenario there. It is a good spring. It's right at a key level, which is settlement, and then we have a strong bounce off. I'm assuming I'm looking at the right one. I may not be, no, it's 430. I'm looking at the wrong one, so excuse me, and let us just get rid of those and go to the correct 431. Sorry about that, 430. Yeah, so they came back to settlement if we zoom back in. It's also a test of that stock run, the 97 MPO stock that they had in the German Open Hour. The German Open Hour I'm talking about is essentially 1.50 a.m. New York time to 3.00 a.m. or 2.55 a.m. New York time. Basically from about 2.55 onwards, it's really the London Open. So they come back down and they test it and away they go. And since then we've essentially been arriving up to the liquidity above. So if you zoom back in on seeing how the liquidity picture was there and then they begin to increase that liquidity and we begin to grind through and eat through it. Pause for this iceberg and then we're just hovering around there. But basically I grind up afternoon session for afternoon for me, morning, or early morning for you. Time check, 8.13. Okay, I will stop rattling on now. Yeah, I want to move on to the next session. So basically we're at the upper end of our range. It's been bullish all week since these two turnaround events and that's the scenario we're going into PPI. Okay, right, let's move on and do something different and completely different again. All right. I'm gonna refer you to some of the webinars that my colleague Tom has given. Tom's often used the word casino and just to really get into your heads that you are playing in a casino. And what have I got up here? I've got a very, very basic Excel spreadsheet and what have I created? I think it took me about 10, 15 minutes to do this and this is simply an expectancy calculator. Right, what do I mean by that? I mean that this is a way of profiling the types of trades that you have and seeing whether you are gonna make money in the long run doing what you're doing. And you can start modeling it here because the real purpose of this is to model the types of trading behavior you're likely to encounter in your own performance and then to plug in some real numbers and see how they compare to what you modeled and see whether your outcomes change going forward. But the idea first and foremost is that this is casino mathematics and it's also all about psychology. And there is a reason why I use that word psychology in this and yeah, let's start drawing again. Okay, all right, where's the pen? Okay, there's one thing that isn't on there I'm gonna put in the cell just now. If you go on Twitter, if you go on YouTube and if you go on lots and lots of these courses or where these amazing, amazing traders teach you everything from A to Z, et cetera and guarantee you you're going to to make a zillion dollars trading, a lot of that has this in common. It has that two word phrase in common, win rate. And you'll see a lot of this 70% towards 95%. I'm sorry, my five is a bit terrible there. And yeah, they will focus you solely or predominantly on the win rate, right? What I wanna do with this spreadsheet in the 10 minutes that we've got is to get you away from that but because a lot of people have also come across the win rate and it is important to them. Let's build in a win rate cell into this one. So down here at the bottom, let me see if it's gonna behave. Yep, it is gonna behave. Let's put a win rate. And let us make that one a completely different color. So we'll make it green, okay? And for this purposes, it's a very simple calculation. It is 100 minus, in fact, yeah, yeah, sorry. I was just thinking, yeah, I'll have to correct this in a while and I'll explain why I've got to correct it. It's basically because I've gotten, I've got row number 16 and this isn't going to, it's not going to cater for that one. So I'm just gonna do that. Whoops, a daisy, sorry. Apologies, when you're doing these things live, you're gonna, and when you're typing live, it can be painful, so bear with me. Okay, all right, let's start from absolute scratch with this and again, I've got to do another time check, 817. So we've got 10 minutes. We will get back onto the heat map before the release of that news. Okay, I've removed commission for this purpose so that when we start looking at this, this is a coin toss. So we're essentially saying you've got a risk multiple, you're gonna lose one times 50% of the time and you're gonna win one times 50% of the time. That is the most basic version of an expectancy calculator you can get. From there, we're gonna change it all up a bit and I'll add in the commission and you saw me put in eight there and the reason I did that was to, for this purpose, let's keep it very, very simple. $8 is roughly the round-turn commission for two EAS contracts. So that's exchange fees, broker commission, et cetera. So we'll put $8 back in there in a second but you can model that to be whatever you wanna be and you can recreate this calculator yourself very, very quickly and the reason why I'm not giving it out is because it is too basic and because if you do the work, you'll see why it focuses your head on the right kind of mathematics and not on this number here. And let me make this one a shade of green as well. But why green? Because people love looking at that one. So we're gonna do that. Okay, so what I'm saying is that a lot of the time, you're gonna, sorry, I can't do that. You're gonna get people coming across and saying they have a trade set up a strategy that has a 90% win rate, right? Okay, I'd like to say it may be true that they have a 90% win rate but what that will do is that that will mean that your 90% there is actually not 90% one R but it's actually more focused on this range here. So if I get my pen out and draw it. So the more you focus on the win rate, my assertion or statement or hypothesis is the more you'll find that your trades are closer to zero. They may be positive, but they're probably in this range, in the zero to 0.5. Sorry, that is, that pen is, I'll just do it with a mouse for a second. Yeah, so I'm just saying that the more you focus on that 90%, the more you will end up finding that you're taking a trades where you've basically made a tick or two and your actual multiple, which is the multiple of the amount that you've risked on the trade is closer to zero than it is to a factor of one, two, three, four, five, 10, whatever, right? And I'm also saying that this is first hand experience and I'll just tell it as it is rather than say that you can make zillions and zillions with one order flow set up. And also that the other factor is that the more you focus on that win rate, the more that you're likely to let your stop run. So at the moment, change color here, your stop is, this is something that I've been talking about, that you're basically taking the same loss with every single trade and I'm doing it in dollar value. So say, for example, this is $250. I'm just saying that the modeling that I do is that with every single loss I have, it's going to be likely to be that $250. It's not going to be exact. I mean, I built myself some code. So if I was doing it with a risk of $250, it would not exceed that unless the stop that I'd set got run through because it was such a thin instrument. Trump had released a tweet or whatever and you had slippage of about five points. But essentially the way I've modeled my entry mechanism is that the one R is the max that I will take. So quite often that $250 will, in practical reality, be 240, 245, 230, 220 even. It was the best way of doing it to ensure that the $250 was not breached. Okay, so yeah, the other thing that I'm saying is that not only will you end up having lots and lots of trades in this zero to 0.5 column, but you will also have outlier stops. In other words, an outlier stop is somewhere, is an instance where you have let your stop run. So rather than, you know, you may, with all the good intentions in the world, have set your stop at minus one R, but you move it, you widen it, and then you keep widening it because you are too focused on winning this individual trade. Maybe because of your overall win rate that you're trying to retain, or maybe because you cannot accept losing because you haven't done the mathematics on how your business model actually makes more money if you do accept quite a few losses. So I'm just saying that that outlier stop may not be a multiple of minus eight. It might be a multiple of minus 20 or minus 30. You might blow your entire account on that one trade because it does happen because you didn't accept your stop and you refuse to believe that the market cannot keep going in the opposite direction. And remember, the market is not a rational being. It will do whatever it wants to do. It's an auction. If it finds traction in the other direction, it will keep auctioning until it stops, until there is no longer any interest to keep going in that direction. I'm just saying. All right, yep, sorry. There was, yeah, just comment in the YouTube. That's fine. I'm also gonna do a time check. I can actually come back to this at about 8.45, 8.50 after the news because I didn't think I'm gonna finish it in the next four minutes because we're not really gonna do all the modeling. So let me just ditch all of that and go back to the cursor. Right, okay. Right, so we start with 50-50, right? What I'm suggesting is that you leave, let's just leave this number, leave this one as a nice, leave it as a nice pink color, salmon color. Okay, you take your focus away from this number. So, and you leave the likelihood that it's gonna be in the 50% range. Maybe it'll get down to 45. By the way, this is 100 trades for the purpose of making everything a percentage. That's the only reason I chose that. It's also well above 20. If you look at all the various books on statistics, nothing is really statistically accepted unless you get to at least 20. So I still think 20 trades is too little to do a casino-based model. But yeah, so what I'm suggesting is that you take your focus off that and you try as well to take your focus off breaking even this one and this one. And you accept that most of your trades may be around about the one R. But you've let a few run, right? So let's just take an example now that we've let 15% run and that they on average have got to the three R. And then we stop and we have a look at what that does to the model, right? I didn't actually do a screenshot or snapshot of what I had about two minutes ago in terms of the profit factor or the expiry date, right? But what I just want to do there and to show, and again, this is a very, very basic spreadsheet. And if you look in every single one of the cells, if you look up in that cell, you can see the calculation that I've done. I mean, if that cell there, from that cell and from zooming in on the screen there, you can build this entire spreadsheet yourself in 10 minutes. It really is as basic as it comes, right? But what you can do is you can look at the whole but what you should be able to see immediately and maybe let's just write that down there. So we've got an expectancy of $75 per trade and a profit factor of 30% and a win rate of 50%, right? And if we then just go back and go back to this, yeah, let's do a more realistic one where we are focused on this 90% and I think this is the last thing I'm going to get to here. So I'm going to say that 25% of them are 0.5 and 70, no, no, 25, 60 are one and five are that and zero on that. Right, so now we've got our 90% win rate. We've got a profit factor. We've got an insane profit factor. Let us come back to that anyway because I don't think I've quite proved my point with those numbers. I may have gotten them wrong in that column, but let's get across to the heat map and focus on what's about to happen as well. I can turn on the financial news feed, financial juice feed, if it's not too annoying. Let's have a quick look at NQ as well. NQ, we've still got these red full Algor bands. We've got some liquidity, which is not part of that Algor band. They're just pressing it down from 15333 and we've got this resting liquidity that's been there basically around the round number, but a fraction higher than it, which is the unusual thing, but they've moved that. So it's not truly resting. It is. There's expansion of the conflict zone may lead to serious consequences, including energy. Okay, if that news feed gets too loud, I will shut it off, but the idea is to leave it on for the next two minutes as we go into this news. So we're very bullish. We wouldn't be surprised if we have one more pop up and then see where we go. So they flagged there. They increased the liquidity there and they flagged it. I think they just try to draw people's attention down to the 4385 level, the 4385 level. Zoom right out again. And we'll zoom all the way back in and see what's really been there. So this has really been there all day. This 4385 level, and that's what they just highlighted again. So that's worth noting as we get in and they've also added some liquidity down at the 4370. So one thing that they're flagging, which may not be a big surprise if we have a little pop up, we then go down. But let's have a look. 829, so all the liquidity you can just see has been removed. Let's zoom right in. They've left the 43870, but most of the rest have been taken. They've got a small iceberg that they're gathering. But let's not read too much into the iceberg going into news. It is 30 seconds and counting, counting down that is. So all the liquidity's basically been ditched. Yeah, so this one's quite an interesting one. Again, it would not be as bright if we don't end up going down, just based on what they're flagging, but a little pop up first would be nice. And down it is. Okay, so I've turned off the news page, just basically so that the PPI was higher than forecast. And at this point, we can scrap the news. All we are concerned about is the market's reaction to that news. Was it a huge spike, which showed that it was well off expectations and I'm not talking about expectations in the counter. I'm talking about their real expectations. And we also know that we've got a scene of the crime just around about here on ES at 4403. So it has not revisited that scene of the crime yet. And it's looking pretty weak. It's been nice if you did want to short to get back to that scene of the crime. So we're gonna look also on the volume at the extreme, it's 16, so that is very much, you know, it may not fall within the technical definition of what we're all over is, but there is no real definition. So it's just, I just mean that there's a low volume on the extreme, so there is no overwhelming probability that they want to continue. In other words, it's not a poor low yet. I always use the word yet because we cannot predict the future. So we're just gonna watch this for a little while and we'll just flick over to NQ. So it had a big, big drop. And again, it's also having a little bit of a retrace and you've got some liquidity which is staring everybody in the face at 15, 272. So it'll be interesting if it goes up first, will it come back and go down towards that? So ES is trying to get back to that scene of the crime. And again, I think the scene of the crime is really about 4403.75, so we're coming right to it. And let us see what is hitting the deck now. One book map. So we've got 52 at the high and we've got some nice liquidity up here. So the scene of the crime really is around about there. So what we're trying to see here is, was that just a fake spike down and we're now gonna keep going with this big up move we've had all week or whether we are really gonna start getting back into value from earlier in the week. And if I drag across, let's see if I can, I'm just dragging across the value for ES. You can see, that's what I drew beforehand. We're really smack bang in the middle of this so there's nothing overly directional if you look at where we are here which is basically formed a value in that sort of area. Yeah, sorry, I stopped talking because I'm just watching. And again, I'm just zooming in because I wanna see whether they are still hitting this level up above. And I also wanna zoom in because I want to see the microstructure. Are you, we're now in this bouncing zone from 4402.50 down to this little swing low at four, basically the round number 4,400. So we're bouncing there. We're gonna continue up and get back to see in the crime or we're gonna fall out of this bounce and then head towards that liquidity below which is where they advertised that they wanted us to get to if we can trust that resting liquidity magnetism today. Again, nothing's 100%, it's just an idea. Yeah, so really it's not quite like the NFP action that we saw the other day which was quite memorable. We're now really back to the more of the slow, grindy movement. You know, often with these scenes of the crime that they'll get close, but they won't quite get right to the level. I thought they would here because they'd put two areas of liquidity there in which case, you know, this might be the reverse spring that's setting up. And then you start to use the delta column and see whether that's gonna be nice. Here we go, getting right back into it. The first liquidity is now being taken. We're gonna get to the second one. This essentially is the scene of the crime, the second one or within one tick of it. Now, will this hold? No, it didn't. So we're just gonna continue the auction that we had earlier. So I'm zooming out to see whether we are gonna have this kind of spring action on this swing high here which is at 4407.5 or whether they're now gonna grind up towards the 4407. Certainly looks like the buyers are in control here at the moment. This is exploring. And you can see that was bouncing. This is clearly, clearly exploring. So whenever you have something that looks like exploring, you look at these tiny little swing lows and see certainly on NQ it's easier. You see, you know, can they get below them again? Can they get them below them easily or is every push down back towards them incredibly painful for them? And then it spikes up quickly in a fraction of a second. You know, with NQ especially, you'll find that you'll see that often that they just do not want to come down and take out any of these micro swing lows during an exploration up. And that's the time where, you know, you just don't want to fade them. You don't wanna go short because it can keep going a very, very long way. Okay, let's have a look at what hit the top this time, 54. Ah, all right. Okay, so that is some movement. So you can see that vertical move down there. So this one went to the scene of the crime and further, but that was quite interesting because it took out a few price levels instantly and it was a nice stop run as well. You can see also with this absorption indicator that there was a large trade there. So that's essentially giving us an approximation of that being a 233 trade. I can also see on my Sierra stuff, you don't normally see this with me because you don't normally see me look at my other screens, but at this point, when I see something like that, I'm often looking at some of the other things that I have just to work out what it was that was up there and do we have a potential for a short coming up or not? So I was just, that's why I was having a quick look at my other stuff. Now I'm going to zoom out and again, and have a look at the liquidity below and note where we were on that swing low. So we are in the order of the four, three, nine, fives. They're trying to build a, you can see that they're putting some pressure on in the book here, plenty of liquidity. They started with the Salisburg and what you really want to see is some continuation and then a plunge down towards that 90. This is a fight. So when it's a fight, we look for some clarity on the other instrument. Again, I normally have these side by side, find it a lot harder to assess when I haven't got the two symbols that work in tandem side by side. So you've got this block of liquidity acting as pressure and also acting as a wall. And they're adding to it. Remember we had some levels, especially this four, three, eight, five level, which I can't really see that well anymore because it turned out to be real, but you've got this one down here at four, three, 70. Again, it may be something that comes into play in the RTH rather than the ETH, but the moment you've got this acting as a wall and they've suddenly added, you saw that little algo blip there. You can zoom in and see what they actually did there. I thought I saw 600, yeah, that was 600 there. So it's a little flash. So one of those things you can see in book map that you can't see in other software, to my knowledge. When they have that kind of algo advertising flash there, you know, they waved a red flag of 600 contracts in the air and said, come find me. I'm just gonna do a chime check, 840. So we've got 20 minutes. I do wanna go back to the expects and the calculator. Yeah, so far, you know, if I was looking for a trade until the RTH opened, I'm looking more on the short side. Just this pressure here that, you know, they're trying hard, but these things don't go in a straight line and they may need to go back up and get some more fuel before they can go down. NQ is indeed going up. And they've advertised that liquidity down there. That's a big number in NQ, it's not real. Well, at least I do not think that it's real and then disappeared right in front of our eyes. There was 200 there and now there's 24, so it wasn't real. It's interesting watching these games. At the same time they did that 200 game in NQ, I missed this 500 trade in ES. Again, you saw me look across. Okay, so what I wanna do now is have a look to see what is at the bottom of that. I'm seeing whether that they were both buys at that level because that would be very, very interesting to me, but they're not. So, yeah, it looked like they got what they wanted and they went straight back to the liquidity. Now they can begin to fill again. Yeah, so these little things where you get this 500 trade, I think it was, yeah, 563 from what I can see here. I think I'm not sure if I've really talked that much about some of these turns in ES, in ETH, but I've said before that what I like to see is the volume dots, I know I don't have them on screen at the moment, I've got the delta dots for people, but what I like to see is very large trades into good zones or areas. So I'm always intrigued by the size of those trades because they often accompany some reversals, whether they're short-term or not. And if you'd been there and right on the trigger there, it is possible, you've got a little spring down below, you take it with a tiny stop and you go straight back up to that liquidity. It's a very hard business to be there. That is pure scalping, if that's what you wanted to do. Anyway, 843. Oh, Art P, hello, first time. Well, yeah, welcome, I may go back to doing what I was doing which was a little expectancy calculator. So at the moment, we might leave this for five minutes, so we've got this Bank of Liquidity in ES, you've got some advertised targets below that they're flushing on the value side. We really are smack bang in a value zone from yesterday afternoon in RTH. And so, yeah, it's really, it's not exploring, it's just, it's trading within that larger value area at this stage. So, yeah, I'm not saying anything to suggest we're gonna have a huge move in either direction before that 930, somebody else may just suddenly come in and they will kick that move off at any second, but at the moment, it's not apparent. So let's go back to the expectancy calculator. Okay, right, let's go back more towards the basics on this one. So, we are essentially doing, it is starting off with the modeling. So you've got an expectancy per trade of zero, profit factor of zero. And, you know, if you did want to focus on win rate, you know, what was a realistic win rate for a one R-type win versus one R-type loss is 70, 30. That, when people say that they do have those win rates, it is believable, you know, I've achieved that myself. It is not out of the equation. It is not necessarily the way you're gonna make the most money, but it is worth putting into your calculator to model to see how much money you might make. And also, in that case, put in some commissions and ran trade commission. Yeah, so it's giving you an average of 92 per trade and a profit factor of 36.8, which is great. The problem with this is that, again, you're gonna be focused on win rate. Now, it's all about that win rate. So that if you do have this outlier, we've got 70, let's just say we have two outliers. Right, and our outliers, we've just let them slip. Okay, well, let's take our minus eight R because it's a simple scenario that we did not we did not honor our stops, okay? And you can see that that profit factor drops massively as does the expectancy. So my only point on this one, I mean, maybe those two numbers aren't the best way of representing this and illustrating that point. But the idea is to see that this drops massively if you do have outlier stops. In other words, if you don't stick to minus one R thing. And the other thing to bear in mind is that I've modeled this as I've always said, on a dollar risk per trade. So I'm not doing it on a two points per trade or a three points per trade. I'm talking about the total dollars risk, which is the number of points times the contracts, giving you that 250 each time, or 300 or 1,000, whatever number you want to plug in, that's just totally arbitrary, okay? But what that does show you is that if you start letting those stops run beyond one R, this model is essentially, I won't use the word invalidated, but materially detrimental. What you thought was there for your living is absolutely killed. So that's just something to bear in mind. Okay, okay, let's continue with this. Right, so let's make it this one. One thing that I saw a few years ago was I saw FT-71, futures trade 71 do something like this, but in a very, very structured fashion. So he always had three contracts and he'd always do something at one contract and two contract and three contracts, like he'd moved to breakeven after the second target was built and then he'd trail the third one, et cetera. You know, it was lovely and structured, but the reason why I haven't done that and I've made a much more basic calculator is that especially if you trade NQ in ETH, the market is more dynamic than that. So you can have the best intentions that you'll always follow that plan, but the market really will tell you what it wants to do. And so what the modeling, what it does to help me is it guides me so that you can go with the market and that you can understand what trailing your stop and not moving your stock to breakeven does for you. Yeah, I mean, the issue there, if you move your stock to breakeven, you will find again that an awful lot of your 100% will be in this 0 to 1 range, 0 to 1 multiple and very rarely will you get to the two, three, four, fives and sixes. So I'm saying that, you know, for example, let's draw one of those trades that we like in here. So bear with me. So we've got a swing and you've got a bank of liquidity, draw it as a river of liquidity up there. And then you have a second swing high. It takes out the first one. You get in in this sort of zone or you get in just a little bit later and then the market plunges, you know, those do happen a lot. I'm exaggerating, but yeah, because your stock is essentially very tight and in NQ we're talking about five, six, seven, eight points, you can easily get to that three R plus, and again, that's my three R plus five R very quickly. So what I want to do is to show you if you instead keep your one R stops and you keep them all in play, oops, there we go. So if you honor this, right, and you accept an awful lot of the time on average, you're just going to get that one R, right? And you try your best to stay out of these two, the zeros and the fives, or basically, you know, it's not going to be this perfect, but you're saying that most of your trades will not be in this 0.1, 0.2, et cetera range. And you let a few of these go, so I'm saying you let 10% of them go and that you have 5% here and you have, say, 5% here. And that is perfectly feasible, you know, with the ETH where you've got failing tight stops and you can let them run, you have statistics on what those reversals are like. That kind of modeling, gotta check the time again, 51, is quite feasible. Again, you've got to model your trades and put them, you know, for average of this, or do a more complex Excel spreadsheet so you get this analysis into your trades, but you basically view it in a way that's simple enough to see it. And accept that the numbers that you get there and all of these numbers, these two numbers here may not be huge. And you don't focus ever on this number here. You don't focus on that and if your win rate is 50%, you say, fine. Provided you do that and then you take your trades and you take your setups and you're gonna get multiple, multiple opportunities. If you're trading two markets in ETH, you can trade them in RTH as well. I trade them in RTH when I get the opportunity and that's most days. You'll find that these numbers add up over course so that 100 trades can become 200 trades or your risk per trade. If you shove in a completely different number, for example, yeah, the amount of money that you're making, if you look at this column here and we can always highlight this one. Let's highlight this one. It's gray, but it's probably more important than some of the other numbers and that's with a realistic commission. I mean, I'd say that that was quite realistic and you can see that if you're risking a decent amount per trade, again, I'm not gonna make any recommendations, but it should be a sensible percentage of your total capital. But I was just putting in 500 to show you that that can quickly grow. And if you keep taking those repetitions and you keep accepting every single one of these trades, this 50% loss, people say to you, oh, you've only got a 50% win rate. The truth is you could be making a heck of a lot more money than somebody with an 85 or 90% win rate and at the end of the day, when you write your trading plan and you write down why you're trading, it's really about this. It's about that gray number there. It's not about this green number here. Now, this green number is the flashy number that you can preach to people about, but it's the gray number that's gonna pay the bills. But anyway, that was just me suggesting to people that you get into the nitty gritty of the casino mathematics and see what plays out with the types of trades that you want to take rather than overly obsessed too much with your win rate or the absolute intricacies of every tiddly bit of order flow, right? So now we're actually breaking up through this liquidity, that's interesting. We're back over the scene of the crime. So the scene of the crime is now irrelevant. We've gone through it twice. Yeah, sorry, I've finished that little rant and I've got a question in YouTube, so I'm gonna answer it because it relates directly to what I was just talking about by the way, they've got this liquidity there so it's likely they're gonna keep eating up towards it at the moment. It's stayed in place, they're all there. That's indicative that they will eventually get there or may likely eventually get there. Question is from, sorry, I just knocked the microphone. The question is from AC, does volatility factor in when you determine what are factor you want to aim for? Yeah, no, I mean, I've got volatility baked in. So what I'm saying is that I have got some code in C++ in Sierra, it's not rocket science code. It took me quite a while to write it all because it's got a lot of lines but there's no rocket science about it. It just calculates the number of contracts that I will put on this trade based on the stop size, right? And my stop size is something that I've drawn onto the charts. So I've got a very, very basic retracement tool. It's the one that's built in in Sierra. I'm sure it's the same in any other platform, whether you use TradingView, Ninja or whatever, you can customize those drawing tools to identify your minus one R, your plus 0.5 R, your plus one R, et cetera. You can use that. So instead of using them for some Fibonacci stuff and I won't comment on Fibonacci because I'm not gonna say anything nice about it so better I don't comment on it. But it's a great tool. If you don't use it for Fibonacci and you use it for things like working out your R's, you can use that to say your stop tick because you've just drawn it is say 15 ticks and that will affect 15 ticks in ES or whatever, 30 ticks or something in NQ. The wider it is, the fewer contracts you have. So yes, it does take into account that volatility because that code will put on the number of contracts times the stop size that gives that dollar value. So if it was $250, it won't let me take more contracts times the stop size plus the commission than the 250 if you get me. So it'll add up those two numbers together and give me the closest number of contracts up to the 250. And that's the way I've got it. It means that I'm not always taking that 250 risk or whatever it is on the day that I'm taking it, 250 again, I keep saying is a completely arbitrary number. So please don't get fixated on that one. It will never let me take over whatever the number is but it will try and get me as close as it can to that number in round contracts because you can't trade fractional contracts. I mean, you can trade micros but you can't trade fractional micros and you can't trade fractional full size ESs or full size NQs. I hope that answers that question. Yeah, it does, great. So yeah, we're still eating towards this liquidity up above at 4407 and yeah, there's another question. I think Valen's gonna ask a question in the Discord channel. What time are we at 8.57? Yeah, I wasn't by the way with that Excel spreadsheet. It's like a lot of the ideas that I try and present in this channel and in this hour. It's ideas for you to explore. And the point is that if you put the work in, you'll get an awful lot more out of doing that work or doing that exercise yourself than buying some indicator from somebody who says it does X, Y, and Z. A little bit of time, for example, learning how to code and do something similar to the indicator that you're interested in, you'll often learn, or sorry, you may learn that what you thought was a magical indicator turns out to be complete nonsense after you have gone through the nitty gritty of the type of coding involved and realized that is not how the market works, for example. Yeah, Valen's still writing a question. I will leave that alone. But yeah, so it looks like they are trying to get to this 4407. And yeah, if we look at that auction, yeah, we're just auctioning up towards the top end of value again in ETH. And yeah, the bullish, yeah, whatever happened from this news release, it looks like it's essentially over now. And if we do get down there, down to the bottom end of this heat map in RTA, it's not this particular part of the auction. It's a new cycle of action that comes in a little bit later, probably after the 930, go on. Yeah, thanks, Valen, thank you for that. So yeah, so it looks like we're gonna, I mean, for the fact that they actually intersected, if we zoom right in and see whether they did intersect, it looks like they did on that one. Trying to see whether they did. Yeah, they did on the second one. Yeah, so they have been interacting. They are using these to fill themselves. So you do wonder whether, if they're trying to fill out all these levels, whether they're gonna have a nice push down in due course. But it looks like they're trying to fill as many contracts as they can at the moment. The NQ is, yeah, it's two, it's now formed a nice little balance. See it? Looking across. Yeah, if I drew that trend line again, this is something that I point out on these tiny little microstructures, exploring down, exploring down. When it breaks those, you will often get this supply demand type trade setup. It has an expiration down or it bounces at the end, but it basically has a trend line in place. Breaks it clearly. It comes back down, retests. You can often get us out there. We can do a flowchart sometime, going through all the steps involved in assessing whether that would fulfill that. But that's often a very good example of a supply demand type setup with a very good risk to reward. Now, if you were taking that one, you managed to get in there, even if you've been conserved, if on your stop, I don't think you'd have your stop much lower than that point there. So you're talking about a stop of about 2350 and you get in at about 2950 maybe. So you've got a six-point stop and you'd already be at 2R. Yeah, you'd definitely be at 2R. So I'm just saying some of those do turn into some very, very nice multiple R-type trades. Right, I've gone past the nine o'clock. So yeah, thank you very much for watching. I hope some of it was of value. And yeah, interesting action at the ETH news release. And it looks like really they're just setting up themselves for RTH at the moment. So yeah, good luck today and have a very good rest of the week. And I'll stop this.