 Welcome, traders, to another Tickmeer weekly market outlook for weekmencing the 20th of March with me, Patrick Munnerley. This week's Federal Reserve policy meeting is going to be a very close call. On the one hand, inflation continues to run hot. The jobs market is strong and the Federal Reserve chaired Jerome Powell's testimony, which opened the door to a 50 basis point hike, suggested a desire to get interest rates a fair bit higher. However, lending conditions were already tightening and the fallout from recent events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and now Credit Suisse will only make banks more cautious. Regulators are also likely to recognise the need to be more proactive in this environment, which could in turn feed into more pressure on the banks and greater caution with regards to who they lend to, how much they lend and at what rate. This is a de facto tightening of monetary and financial conditions in the US, which could weigh heavily on economic activity. The Fed may be wary that a no change response could signal that they have finished tightening and the next move will be lower rates, but they can head off that by signalling in the text that this is a temporary pause and they stand ready to tighten again, should conditions warrant it. Moreover, they also have the updated forecast this month, which could continue to show their central tendency is for rates to end the year higher than their current level. Nonetheless, with the European Central Bank hiking by 50 basis points last week, without causing too much market disruption, this is likely to embolden the Fed to move by 25 bits on Wednesday. Moving to the charts, Dollar Index has rejected the 10550 level as anticipated. We now have the first leg of an impulsive decline there, corrected up into the 10470s. As this area acts as resistance now, we are looking for an extension down into an equality objective 10189. We also have weekly projected range sport coming in there, 10190s and the high volume note on the four hour chart here, 10170. I'm looking for an extension to the downside into this target zone from there. I'm going to be watching the bullish reversal patterns to engage on the wrong side, looking to play for a correction backup into test trend channel resistance. Come in 10350s. At this stage, it would take a close back through 10470s, 10480s to suggest the correction is complete. And then we would look at a retest of the price cycle highs into those 10580s. Moving to the Eurozone for this week, really all eyes will be on the PMI consumer confidence data for signs about how the first quarter is shaping up. So far sentiment data has pointed a relatively positive picture of the economy in February, but hard data for the first quarter shows little signs of a strong rebound. Also interesting will be the trade balance for January, which has seen big moves in energy import volumes and prices. From a technical perspective, Eurodollar in an interesting position here. A couple of key areas I'm watching as we head into the beginning of the week. This 106 level, if we can hold there and continue to find a bid, I would look for an extension up into the validation level for the equality objective, which is down at the 10430s. So a retest of that 108 handle could be on the cards. However, if we can't maintain support of the 106, we look for a downside extension, take out the triple bottom and trade to our target at 10430s. Moving to the UK. It's going to be a big week there in respect of central bank decisions. The Bank of England signaled it might finally be done with tightening, or at least that was it was close to being done to tightening. It said it would be monitoring signs of inflation persistence and hinted the burden of proof was on seeing inflation fall back rather than vice versa. Since then, the data has been encouraging. Wage growth is finally showing signs of having peaked. Though it's early days, the bank's own decision maker survey has suggested firms pricing strategies are becoming less aggressive too. We'll get one more inflation reading this week before Thursday's meeting, but last month saw a surprise dip in core services CPI. Until the recent drama in the financial markets and on the basis of recent BOE communications, markets felt that this data was probably quite enough to steer the BOE away from a 25 basis point move this month, but markets also seem to be of the opinion that those encouraging trends could continue and the committee could pause in May. Markets still leaning towards that outcome, though clearly a lot of change in the days leading up to the meeting. It's clear from recent communications that the bar for pausing is much lower at the BOE than it is at the ECB or at the Feds, with officials noting that the impact of past hikes is still largely to feed through. On the flip side, last September, October's volatility in UK markets after the mini-budget saw the BOE use targeted measures to address financial stability issues, which policymakers indicated would allow the bank's monetary policy to continue focusing on inflation. I suspect that the philosophy of at least trying to separate inflation fighting and financial stability, which is also adopted by ECB President Christine Lagarde, this week will again underpin this week's decision making. In short, I think the meeting is on knife edge and to a large extent it will come down to whether stability in financial markets starts to return, either way expect the committee to remain heavily divided. So from a technical perspective, Sterling held our support area at the 120-20s and we have extended to the upside. So I'm looking for now any pullbacks to find again additional sport 120-120s to trade up into our target zone here at the 120-260s. Now we have monthly projected range resistance just above there so we watch for any bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side and I would anticipate that we could see a move back into test the pivot here at the 120-120s and then we'll see if by a step back in and we can target that weekly trend line resistance coming in 126-70s. Now moving to Japan, very light on the data docket this week in Japan really it's just Thursday's nation might call CPI year on year. It's seen 43.1% from 4.2% the time in Tokyo CPI showed inflation declining from 4.4% to 3.4% in February thanks to the government energy subsidies. And let's say Capco anticipates a nationwide decrease from 4.3 to 3.2% and suggests that despite the drop in headline figures underlying inflation is expected to increase from 3.2 to 3.3% driven by food inflation and a slight pickup in services inflation. Food inflation is projected to rise from 7.6 to 7.8% and national services inflation to increase from 1.1 to 1.2% the highest since April 1998 when accounting for tax impacts. So from a technical perspective the dolly yen we got that initial move to the downside we were looking for three wave correction into that 135 handle which we got we were rejected from there and we've since broken down we're now testing the weekly S1 into 130.50 I'm looking now for a move to the downside to get a test of the equality objective versus the 135.20 swing high that should take us down into 129.40s as the next downside objective for the dollar yen. Moving down under to Australia what do we have in terms of data again very light on the data front the only release of note this week is going to be the RBA minutes on Tuesday minutes from March meeting are due to recap the central bank delivered a 10th consecutive raise increase in which it hyped the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.6% as expected. The RBA noted that the board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation's target and expects further tightening of monetary policy will be needed which was a slight tweak from its previous guidance that the board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed while it also stated that monthly CPI days to suggest that inflation seems to have peak the RBA added that growth has slowed and while the labour market remains very tight conditions have eased a little and uncertainties mean that there is a range potential scenarios for the Australian economy. Furthermore it noted in assessing when and how much further interest rates need to rise the board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market from a technical perspective Aussie dollar has pulled back into test the support area that identified in last week's review into this 66 70s I'm looking now for buyers to step in here and extension up into the resistance at 67 70s then as pullbacks remain supported by the 66 90 the 67 handle we look for an extension to the upside and I'm targeting a test of the 68 50s as the next upside objective for the Aussie dollar at this stage you can take a close back through 65 80 suggest a false upside break and a correction that's complete and then we'll be talking a retest of price cycle lows into that 65 60 and let's just quickly check in with Bitcoin this morning Bitcoin has been on a tear here of of late through this banking crisis and what we are looking for now is as support is maintained into 27 200 I'm looking now for a test of the psychological 30 000 level from there watch for bearish reversal patterns and we would ideally like to see triple momentum divergence develop there from that I would then be looking for a pullback into test support back into the 26 500 level and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 20th of March as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much