 Our next speaker in this first session is Mr. Ersin Akius, who is the CEO of Deutsche Bank in Turkey. Mr. Akius nicely combines the three pillars of this conference. He works for Deutsche Bank, he's a graduate of LSE, and he lives and works in Istanbul. His topic this morning will follow from the earlier two presentations. Mr. Akius will speak on the financing of the urban areas. Professor Davis, Professor Pamuk, ladies and gentlemen. Urbanization is one of the few major global trends besides demographic, technological and climate-related trends. This urbanization process has far-reaching consequences. First, for the way we organize our economy. Second, for the way political decisions are made. And third, for the way we organize our economy. All three areas are of course interlinked. Still, for analytical clarity, I would like to focus on the economic implications because in this field, bankers and economists can both add value. I have divided my presentation into two parts. First, I will briefly sketch the current economic environment and the specific crisis-related financial challenges concerning cities. Second, I will indicate in what ways the private sector can help in financing cities. The world economy is set to shrink by roughly 2% in 2009. It is only thanks to a historically unparalleled global effort to coordinate expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and several rescue packages for the banking sector that we have been able to avoid an even severe recession. Though we at Deutsche Bank are confident that world economy is slowly regaining strength, we are nevertheless convinced that there are still risks ahead. Capacity utilization at many manufacturing companies around the world is still low and the scope for further fiscal and monetary stimulus is extremely limited now. Though confidence among financial markets' participants has slowly returned, securitization markets are still muted. All these factors have two important implications. Default risks for private sector companies will stay high and the public budgets will remain stressed for many years. Of course, financial clusters will be particularly affected by this specific crisis and not all financial centers to the same extent. For example, Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York, recently stated that in New York alone 116,000 jobs have been shed since the outbreak of the crisis and in London development has not been much better. And looking ahead, regulators will certainly impose strict regulations on the financial industry in particular with regard to capital and liquidity requirements and this will put further pressure on the financial industry. What does this all imply for cities and their budgets? Some of the fiscal stimulus packages are directly targeting urban infrastructure such as the renovation of schools in Germany or investment in energy efficiency and public buildings in the United States and China. Those investments are obviously supportive for local communities but these efforts cannot compensate for the sharp decline in cities' tax revenues. This decline will force cities to focus on core competencies in order to increase efficiency in the provision of public services and to look for new financing sources. Ladies and gentlemen, obviously the financing environment has become very difficult but that's just one side of the coin. At the same time the financing needs in future for the cities will continue to rise. Towards the end of this century 75% of the world's population will live in cities. Every day these people consume a multitude of services in a city. They live in an apartment or a house, they travel on roads or local trains. They visit the opera, go shopping, benefit from hospitals in case of need. Their children attend kindergarten or school. Water, electricity and waste disposal services are available and I have not even mentioned the many soft factors such as social integration. Analysts from the consultancy firm Booz Allen Hamilton have estimated that by the year 2030 40 trillion dollars will have to be invested in urban infrastructure. Almost 40% of this huge amount is expected to be invested in Asia. And according to some estimates by UN Habitat the world will need roughly 1 billion new housing units by 2030. Of course these numbers are broad estimates but the message is crystal clear. There is enormous financing need. This brings me to the second part of my remarks. Who will finance all this? Of course there can hardly be just one single financing strategy for all these different services. One of the most important lessons in economics is one size rarely fits all. Let's start with the relatively easy part which is housing. Housing is typically considered a private good and can therefore be provided by private markets. In most cases the private financing of housing and commercial property in developed countries works well at least over one or two business cycles. The huge mortgage markets in industrial economies reflect this. Establishing a mortgage market is therefore an important prerequisite for capital growth in emerging markets. However there are two limitations. First housing and mortgage markets are not always in equilibrium and can entail severe problems. The second limitation is that there are distributional aspects of housing and these are particularly important in developed countries. But in most cases functioning mortgage markets have helped tremendously to build a productive capital stock. But private financial institutions can also add value in difficult markets by providing know-how and access to capital. Deutsche Bank's community development finance group for example has an 18 year history in originating, structuring and managing social investments. Not only in the United States but also in Nigeria, Pakistan, India and Egypt to name but a few countries. All in all this group has invested over one billion US dollars in housing and urban infrastructure. The money is collected from philanthropic investors, non-profit organizations, governments and institutional investors. The specific value of this group is that it can leverage the entire range of Deutsche Bank's expertise in banking and its enormous international network. The globalization pays if we can make use of the scale effects and available expertise. With regard to tangible infrastructure one is too often tempted to call upon the government to provide water, power and waste disposal services. However we at Deutsche Bank are convinced that in many cases a public-private partnership structure and the next speaker will give a specific example of that where a private partner contributes expertise and finance is a sensible answer and not necessarily only in times of tight budgets. We admit that PPP is not a catch-all solution. Politically it's far from easy but we are gaining expertise. Deutsche Bank for example was a financial advisor for the New Airport in Berlin and for waste water management in Zagreb. The asset management arm, REEF, currently has over $5 billion in infrastructure funds under management. But banking is not only about providing capital, it is also about managing the risks that are associated with financing communal services. I want to point out two kinds of risks. The most important one is of course the risk of interest rate volatility. Banks can offer a broad range of products that help optimize a city's interest payments. This is not at all a simple task. Interest rates differ by maturity and whether a fixed or variable adjustment is agreed. But banks offer hedging products like swaps and options that reduce the risk of variable interest rate movements and banks also offer more complex products that take into account the whole interest rate curve. Sometimes it is also attractive to make use of lower interest rates abroad and then to hedge the exchange rate risk. The other kind of risk I want to point out is liquidity risk. Here banks help cities to reach a larger investor base by organizing road shows. The large investor network of a global bank like Deutsche Bank then translates into a valuable asset for the city. Many of these products make particular sense for cities that have already adopted new communal financial management practices which carries private sector bookkeeping to the public sector. High transparency standards then show the merits of financial optimizing. Of course one important prerequisite for interest rate swaps and particularly for the more complex derivative structure is that the city understands these opportunities. Training is often necessary in order to avoid misinterpretation of these products. We do offer such training programs as the first step to opening a city to the capital markets. One final point I want to add is the work of Elina Ostrom who won this year's Nobel Prize. Her work on how local communities can overcome the tragedy of the commons where most economists would expect strict market failure. In our view her findings on ecological problems can also be useful for urban planning. I do not intend to suggest that private markets can provide for all financing requirements in cities. Traditional public financing will continue to play a key role for many services but we all know that public money is scarce and this whole is particularly true for those cities with the most urgent need namely the rapidly growing cities in developing countries. In sum my key points are number one though the crisis in financing environment for cities and corporations alike has become much more difficult at the same time organization creates significant financing demand going looking forward. Private financing institutions can play a pivotal role in managing risk associated with financing communal services in raising and allocating private and public money for the necessary investments and this not only into the interest in projects with the future cash flow potentials like airport or toll roads. Thank you for your attention and Professor Davis I've stayed well within my time. Well thank you Ersin for a very interesting commentary on the financing side and also for showing extremely good discipline in remaining within your time.