 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have with us Ivan from Barcelona. We'll be discussing the Catalonian referendum and what led up to the current impasse and what is the way forward. Ivan, we've been seeing pictures and descriptions of what's been happening in Barcelona in the Catalonian region. It seems that the Spanish government has come down to the very heavy hand to stop the referendum. Can you tell us a little bit about the background of the Catalonian independence movement for the Indian readers, what has been its history and why suddenly it has acquired this dimension, leading to what seems to be a crisis of the Spanish state? I could respond to this question in many different ways but I think a very good thread is the last thing you mentioned. I think we are dealing with the crisis of the system. With a crisis of the regime that was established in Spain after the death of the fascist dictator Franco in year 75. From there what came was this constitution that tried to accommodate different realities in one single text. One very worrying component to this new system that was being built is how to deal with long-standing territorial tensions, especially from two territories in Spain. The first was the free Galicia to a lesser extent, the Basque Country and Catalonia. So the Recype in the end the solution was creating this state of the autonomous economies in which the design of the Spanish state was won, in which 17 regions had a variable degree of autonomy. Of course the two more specific ones were the Basque Country and Catalonia. For many years the design of the system relied upon the existence of two big parties, the Popular Party Conservatives, the Socialist Party, Social Democrats, Liberal Social Democrats. That shared or took turns to govern and made bigger majorities with regional parties, both in the Basque Country and Catalonia, in the Spanish Parliament. Why could that happen? Because the electoral system was one in which regional parties had a disproportionately high representation in the Spanish Parliament. And not casually, the two main parties from the Basque Country and Catalonia that always made alliances with the two big state parties were bourgeois, right-wing, conservative, Basque and Catalan parties. So that worked pretty well for 30-35 years. But then the economic social crisis in 2008-2009 hit Spain, like you know it hit many other countries in the world. The system started to crack. The two big parties, central state parties in Spain, started to lose representation. The Socialist Party lost almost half of the votes it had, like 15 years ago. And the Popular Party, still the big majority, but very much weakened in the last 5-6 years. What happened in Catalonia is that corruption is rampant all over in Spain, right? So the ruling party in Catalonia, which was this bourgeois right-wing party, was very much hit by corruption cases. Some analysts say that the only way forward was to press for an independence agenda. And that started like 5-6 years ago. So you could say that the origin of the agenda for independence was initiated by the right-wing, conservative, Catholic, bourgeois party in Catalonia. But it has two allies. One of them is one party called Esquerra Republicana, which are left-wing republicans. And one party, which was not invited in the beginning, which is the CUP. The CUP is the candidaturas de unidad popular. These are revolutionary, anti-capitalist, Marxist, with some sort of, you know, you know, feeding on the anarcho-syndicalist tradition, especially present in Barcelona, but everywhere in Catalonia. Strongly municipalist and uncompromising. So far, we have seen that the radicalization of the agenda has had a very strong component of, you know, trying to build this, you know, alliance between different forces in Catalonia, and trying to go for one agenda that took the referendum as one departing point. We are discussing about the consequences of the crackdown and the brutality of the police and the Spanish state, but for the people in the CUP, which in my opinion they are the main driving force in terms of radicalization of the agenda, it's just the first step. So we had the vote on Sunday. It was an overwhelmingly affirmative vote. People voted almost 2.2 million Catalans, voted yes for independence. Today we're in the middle of a general strike called by all trade unions in Catalonia. There is no state or Spanish trade union that has called for the general strike. And if everything goes according to the script, tomorrow we will have a declaration of independence of Catalonia. Well, that will be really the, what shall we say, the crisis point because the Spanish government is certainly then going to come down very heavily and probably dismiss the Catalonian government. I think we should consider several scenarios. And one of them is of course that tomorrow indeed we have a, of course, unilateral. You cannot declare a greed upon declaration of independence. So it's going to be unilateral in the case. You know, in the Spanish constitution, there is this article, the one, the famous 155 that says that the central government can take or suspend the autonomy of one region, of the government of one region, and then certain assumptions or certain certain happenings. Well, the Spanish government has declared that is willing to apply 155 if a declaration of independence happens. Yesterday, the premier Mariano Rajoy, after seeing how the day of the voting unfolded, held meetings with the General Secretary of the Socialist Party and the General Secretary of a Particle, which is the fourth political force in Spain, because basically he wanted to have the political cover to be able to apply 155, take over the institutions in Catalonia, call for elections and eventually bring the army into Catalonia. On the other hand, some analysts say that this declaration of independence is just the attempt of the Catalan government to build a negotiation, you know, a bargaining power. When confronting the Spanish government at the other side of the table and try to settle for an agreed upon referendum. The most important political actor in trying to bring together these two opposing and really antagonized sides right now is the Spanish Socialist Party. They don't know if they should support premier Rajoy in cracking down completely and bringing law and order back into Catalonia. Or alternatively, they should support an agenda in which Mariano Rajoy doesn't have all the, let's say, all the platform or all legitimacy to precisely crack down. And my personal view, my opinion is that, I mean, of course, the Spanish state, the Spanish government could bring the tanks here and could, you know, could initiate a nationwide repression if they want to, but they can. They are a really unstable government right now. They are precisely depending on one specific action in the parliament, the Spanish parliament, which is they need the budget for next year past. And following the scheme that I described before, they are their main ally right now is the Basque Nationalist Party, conservative, right wing representative of the bourgeoisie. That of course wants to pass the budget, but they cannot afford politically to support a party, a right wing, Spanish nationalist party that cracks down in Catalonia. This is going to be disgraceful for them. The Basques obviously are the second most important region, wanting also autonomy, if not said, determination. It's an old secessionist movement, which has been there in the Basque country, which has been right now much more in a lower ebb, but could anytime come back. Coming back to this, for our audience, also that Prime Minister Rojas's party, the popular party, is also continuation in some sense of the frankest right in Spain? Of course the popular party is the conservative, Catholic party that is the big umbrella for the conservative, sociologically conservative part of the Spanish society. It is usually mentioned how is it possible that everywhere in Europe you see the rise of fascism in the form of electoral success of neo-Nazi, neo-fascist, ultra-right wing parties, but you don't see it in Spain. And the explanation is that the popular party encompasses all realms of society, even the most conservative, the most ultra-right wing, they all fit. But to me, the most relevant factor is that there were a lot of changes in the Spanish political system, in the Spanish society, and eventually everything was modified or reformed except for one place, which is the judicial system. There is not a substantial change in what was the legal structure and the structure of the judiciary as it was with Franco as it is now. So if you have the judiciary on your side, you can apply the conservative political agenda unchallenged. That's where Frankism and Franco is still present in the Spanish society mostly. Last question, what is the role of the Barcelona mayor who's been saying that the referendum is a right of the people, but at the same time has not supported Catalonian independence or forces like Podemos, who seem to be taking a position saying the crackdown was really wrong, shouldn't have been done and so on, but have been taking a position regarding the issue of referendum. Well, that's a very good question and I do think that she is in a very complicated situation. I don't really think she favors independence of Catalunya. But also because she is someone that, she is a very good politician, she is someone that is trying to bring in this new politics or political style from the municipalism, not thinking in big terms or big national projects, but organizing in a more decent way the everyday life for citizens, trying to make life for citizens better. So she is not someone that really thinks that the solution to the problems of the people in Catalunya is independence. And there is one basic principle for everyone that does politics in Spain. If you want to win an election, if you want to rule Spain, you cannot favor the Catalans or the Basques. That is where the stability of the system has been based in the last 30-35 years, I would say. The crackdown and what happened on Sunday during the vote has helped a lot her position and the position of Podemos for what is worth, because that introduces a new dimension to the conflict. They are not, they don't need to defend the independence. They just need to defend the rights of the Catalan people to decide and the protection and upholding civil rights and democracy. And that's basically what the fight right now is about. So Ivan, we will be coming back to you because I think the Catalonian issue is not going to die down so easily. Neither are the troubles in Spain going to be over with this. So we will be back with you to discuss this and other issues in the region, particularly in Spain. 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