 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got another elevated event in the PGA tour this week It is the Arnold Palmer Invitational and all the big stars are here We're gonna break that down from a betting perspective and let you know where Brandon Goodula is seeing value for this weekend and also talk about tonight's NBA action with a 10 game slate on a Tuesday This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joints here as mentioned by Brandon Goodula. You can find him on Twitter. I could do a 13 He is the managing editor of number fire calm senior Managing editor. Sorry. It's only been like 16 years since you had that title anyway I'll get it eventually Brandon I am rusty on your title because you are back from vacation. You were not here last week Allie McCann filled in admirably for you, but how is your vacation? How are you doing today? It was good went out to well flew to Las Vegas then to drive around Southern California do some national parks, but coming from central Pennsylvania area figured it would just be Very very different climate in February than what we have in central Central PA it was for the first like five or six days of the trip and then Like San Diego got its first ever blizzard warning and I was like 24 hours after we had left from San Diego So we did change some of our plans Toward the end of that trip, but yeah, it was a great time Yeah, you brought the snow to California like NASCAR was in Fontana this past week it was right outside of LA and They couldn't do any on-track activity Saturday because it was snowing like these massive flakes with the mountains They were supposed to get like 10 feet at one point. That was like the thought they didn't get that but like The one time you go to California. It decides to snow Well second time, but yes true I went to Daytona for the 500 when I was in high school and It I was like saying the same as you like okay I'm leaving Minnesota go into Florida during the winter I can like pack just shorts and be happy then it was like 50 degrees the whole time and I froze to death also did that in Phoenix But that was more so because I'm an idiot not because of like bad weather I didn't realize it gets cold in the desert because I ignore popular culture that tells you gets cold in the desert so Maybe we're bad luck. Maybe that's a takeaway here could be but yes Yeah, so my wife wants to see all like all the national parks. So we do a lot of like camping And yeah, I can attest from camping in Death Valley Get's pretty cold overnight. I've also heard it gets warm there So you happen to be there when it was not quite warm Yeah, not the hundred and twenty two at that time But glad you're back safely glad you had a good time and glad you did not freeze out there in The the tundra of California We're gonna dive into tonight's NBA Slate first and then talk about the Arnold Palmer invitation I'll let you know where Brandon is seeing value in both those in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are enough a podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcasts. You name it you can find us there tomorrow Ed Feng is back. He was on vacation for a bit as well We'll be talking about some men's college basketball getting his read on the state of the nation right now So that'll be tomorrow over on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandle YouTube page Make sure you subscribe wherever you want to check that out Fandle is America's number one sportsbook I mean number one place to get your friends in the game That's why Fandle is giving you and a friend the opportunity to eat your in 75 dollars All you need is to invite your friends using your exclusive referral link under the refer Icon in the app as soon as your friend makes any bet of at least ten dollars on sportsbook You'll both get fifty dollars in sportsbook bonus bets and as soon as they bet at least ten dollars on Fandle casino You'll both get twenty five dollars in casino credit Just head over to the Fandle sportsbook and casino apps to invite your friends today and get your seventy five dollar referral bonus Must be twenty one plus and present in Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania or West Virginia Referred players must wage your ten plus dollars within 30 days after signing up limit five referrals during a 30-day period Sportsbook bonus bets and casino site credit are not withdrawal and expire 30 or 14 days after receipt restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.com or sportsbook.fandle.com This is a new read. I've not done it 16,000 times like the other ones so I actually have to read it and with my inability to focus on most things No, not you. It's tough. I know I know a gambling problem This is the important part call 1-800-2707-117 in Michigan in New Jersey and Pennsylvania 1-800-gambler or in West Virginia go to 1-800-gambler dot net now brain Let's start things off on the NBA side of things and there we got a couple of nationally televised games for tonight Those games are the Lakers at the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves at the Clippers When you look at those two games specifically anything stand out to you there Yes, so we'll start with the the Lakers and Grizzlies game Lakers 2-0 since the break with some some nice wins, but D'Angelo Russell barely played and Not trying to bury the lead but LeBron James Expected to be out for an extended period and if you take I mean, you know I know I wasn't on the show last week. I guess it was the only week that I missed correct. I believe Yeah, no, you went hard at the Super Bowl, so it's been Oh, yeah, that's true. So anyway recent. I have no idea when Super Bowl was be fully honest. It's 12 Okay. All right. We'll get our interns to work on this. Yeah, how long it's actually been but just as a reminder for me relevant samples and you know key players and having them on and off the floor and in and out of games is The only thing I care about when it comes to NBA. I don't really You know, I look at like trends and over under trends and that kind of stuff, but it's it's specifically for me leveraged almost exclusively through who's on the court and no surprise you take LeBron off the court They're not a great team The Grizzlies are still without Steven Adams, but that's not overly impactful as much as I love Steven Adams Not quite the same impact there My model does like the Grizzlies to cover pretty easily that spread I think I first saw it at eight then I was a eight and a half now. It's at nine. Correct. Yeah This is one where my model just thinks it's a complete blowout, so I'm still okay with that But yeah for me, I prefer the the over under like the under it 230 and a half that the Lakers have a lot of offensive concerns. I don't like I don't really love Overs with blowout potential. I think this could be that that particular type of game. So for me Still don't mind the Grizzlies and it wouldn't fault anyone Also think that Grizzlies could be part of like a money money line Parley something like that But for me preferred route is under 230 and a half for this game Yes, so the spread and spread is nine as you alluded to the money line for the Grizzlies is minus 390 So applied odds there right around 80% if you want to bet the Grizzlies to just win this game outright The total 230 and a half is you said minus 110 on the under on that one And I think they would know LeBron it makes a lot of sense that things be that way The problem is like, you know, there was a lot of change over with this Lakers team post trade deadline We haven't seen a ton of action without LeBron since then but still I think that Logically what you want LeBron? You want LeBron? Yeah? I don't want to go on a huge limb here as a non NBA guy, but LeBron is probably good Just throwing that out there. Okay other game tonight involves the Timberwolves facing off with the Clippers What do you see in there with a six and a half point spread currently? Yeah, so I had it initially at six That's trending In the favor that that I have it I have the Clippers favored by eight Rudy Gobert is sick missed the last game But he's listed as probable Clippers are mostly healthy, but are without even to zoo bots But you know factoring all that in again, I have the Clippers favored by around eight So I like it a little bit less now that it's six and a half But still Some some juice there for me and it but once again the theme of the night for me is going to be don't mind some spreads But actually prefer totals Preferring the over even at 234 the Clippers kind of getting a little bit less slow I'll say I'm not gonna call them fast But they've been allowing their opponents to go over their implied team total is pretty often over the past 20 games Just kind of for some context 65% of time opponents have gone over their implied team total and that's the same number for the Clippers again Those are things that I kind of look at in conjunction with the actual data the on-off stuff that I use But it's nice to see that For me, so I think that it's another spot where it's the total I like but this time It's the over even at 234 Yeah, 234 minus 110 on the over for that one spread is Clippers minus six and a half Is that one now that it's six and a half instead of six Is that more so a lean for you or do you still feel good enough where you would take the six and a half as well? I'd take it but for me, that's gonna be a smaller smaller unit that then it would have been otherwise Okay So liking the over for the wolves and the Clippers and the under for the Lakers and the Grizzlies for tonight As mentioned pretty large slate in the NBA for tonight It is a full robust 10 games so eight games they have not discussed yet Brandon elsewhere on the slate Where are you seeing bets you like a fan dual sportsbook? Kind of one stands out more than the others and then everything else is pretty tight And I want to be want to be all right with that But once again, it's a game where this spread has changed in the past like 20 minutes since I listed this stuff But that's the spurs in the jazz jazz now minus 10 They were minus nine, but it's again a situation where I don't mind the spread But I prefer the total on these two teams just played on the 25th It was a 118 one or two win by the jazz for a total of 220 if my math is Correct on that one. You know spurs are just reeling. They were pretty over friendly team early on that scaling back, which You know, you can kind of take that as you will sometimes things just naturally correct sometimes uh, you know, it can be it can be a Either or situation as far as how I view it but with the relevant health for these teams right now I just don't see it. I don't see enough offensive firepower for the spurs to Keep this one particularly close the spread indicates that as well Um, I don't think the jazz will need to run it up The data again backs that up and I mentioned a you know money line parlay. I think you go jazz and um Grizzlies and get a nice reduced odds there. I think both of these teams get a pretty easy win tonight Uh, the jazz by themselves and a single leg are minus 480 as of right now going over To the grizzlies as well. They are minus 390 if you decide to uh, plug both those together They can buy odds minus 193 over at fangirls sportsbook. Uh, the applied odds in that 65.9 So you want to peg both those two together? You can get it at minus 193 right now at fangirls sports, but again, it sounds like the Bigger read for you more so is on the totals than on the money lines, correct Yeah, and I think that's probably going to be pretty common for me as the season ends where team motivation is Up in the air. Uh team health could be you know, we'll get a lot of uh last second Inns and ounces teams kind of do some weird stuff So I think totals are going to be something that I prioritize even a little bit more Down the stretch, but yeah throughout the rest of the slate I kind of don't see enough that I could recommend whether it's due to key injuries by way of questionable tags I mean I can count for Guys who are out questionable tags are always worrisome Um, and then small samples for teams who have really uh, kind of blown things up So those are the three those three totals are my favorites of the night And again, those three were the grizzlies lakers under 230 and a half We got the clippers wolves over 234 and the jazz and the spurs under 236 and a half as brandon's favorite bats for tonight in the nba Let's talk some golf though. We got the arnold palmer invitation coming up once again this week It is a massive really really good field and it's at bay hill bay hill is the spot We know pretty well brandon You showed me a clip of the weather forecast this week. It ain't great similar to last year I think it was sunday where things got super super jacked up with the wind So what should we know about bay hill before we talk about the field for this week's arnold palmer invitational? Yes, it's a tough course tough designated field As well, so we're gonna have a lot of great golfers at a tough course Love that. It's my favorite type of golf to watch But it's a bit longer than most par 72s a lot of that does stem from distance of the par 3s That'll somewhat increase variance more because the par 3s will be even more volatile. It's not just going to be necessarily a wedge I think the average around 210 for the par 3s, but You know distance kind of correlates carries throughout the bag the club club gapping is You know, it's not like it's guys hit driver Super far, but hit everything all short. It's it's pretty typical throughout the bag. So that's going to allow you A higher loft into those longer par 3s if you're longer off the tee almost always So I think there's going to be an emphasis on driving distance Stroke scan off the tee stroke scan approach Nothing narrowest fairways necessarily, but they're really penal if you miss them. There's bunkers. There's water Guys are going to make bogies. You're just going to want to make sure you guys aren't making double bogies very often So again ball striking is going to be key the best players in the world Take a look at them. They're generally the best overall ball strikers. It's a major esk field major esk course. So I'm not messing around with many if any long shots for outright You know, I'll go for those guys for top 10s top 20s But seems destined to be a bit of a superstar winner the past winners in the field since 2016 scottie schaeffler last year teal hatton francesca mullinari whenever he was You know gearing up for his um his peak roey mackleroy jason day in 2016 and then the other two winners in that span bracing the shambles and mark leishman now to live guys, but You know, it's it's probably going to be a name that a lot of people recognize Who ends up winning this week? So you mentioned there is a decent amount of distance, but also it can be penal in this affair way And it sounds to me as if we walk we kind of like need to prioritize guys who can gain off the t Like is that kind of what you were trying to say there? Yeah, so like mullinari teal hatton not like super big hitters Uh leishman not like the biggest hitter anything like that you can overpower this place at sometimes But yeah, you want to be able to make sure that your guys are gaining strokes off the t Uh for this week, you know And then from there it's going to be a lot of long approaches still Yeah, so approach play matters greens are a bit larger Uh than your average pga torque green. It's about 125 of the average green So a bit bigger there, but You know with the with the wind expected to be up it's going to be hard to stick So it's a really an all-around test, but the things you can bank on You can bank on stroke scan off the team or you can bank on any other stat So stroke scan off the t's a very good starting point for this week. Okay Let's talk here about the outright market starting off with john rom once again the massive favorite He is seven to one to win this week and you mentioned that it'll probably be a superstar who wins I'm going to go ahead and say that if you know we want lebron james and we think that That john rom is a superstar just going to go ahead and you know make those bold assumptions but also with the weather my Like in my like thought process would be that that could make things a bit more volatile. So So What's your read on rom Relative to the market knowing that things might get a little bit jacked up in terms of wind. It looks like friday specifically is bad Yeah, I mean you get talk about someone who can gain strokes off the t. He definitely can but um, I see him as overvalued only a little bit Yeah, um But enough to the point that I don't want to get there at it's 7 plus 700 Right, uh the putter is on fire for him over the past 50 rounds John rom leads the field in stroke skin putting true. I should say true stroke skin putting according to data golf's query tool um Rory plays bail really well. I think scottie cheffler is fully back So with with that plus the wind just a good field. It's not like the the largest field, but Really what matters is how many like? You know killers are in the field and there's a lot of them this week So seven seven to one's not a big enough return for me personally Um, I wouldn't call like I'm not gonna call him a fade if you want to play john rom if you want to bet john rom Go ahead. He's incredible but I think that there are other ways to go and um With the odds being what they are for the top three. Yeah They're all a bit. Okay. So cheffler shortened from 10 to nine and a half same as rory. Right. Um Those three guys are in a tier of their own in terms of the wind odds. I think they're all Again, I'm not going to touch like fading them or saying they're bad plays But I don't see the value on them this week. So I'm looking more in this the second tier For my card Yeah rom is seven to one as you mentioned mackerel and cheffler both plus nine 50 shortening from 10 to one previously So we're not looking at those top three. We're not looking at long shots Who are you zeroing in on as far as outrides for this week? If anybody it might be no one which is there Well, it's it's it's tough this week I do. I just want to point out that I love that max homa is next up Uh at 20 to one and then will zalatoris But then we have like can't lay in in xander at 23 and 24 respectively. I just love that because Home home is great zalatoris has like that doesn't win enough narrative, but yeah, he's next up But for me, I am looking in uh, even below that With xander schoffley Shocker 24 to 1 Tony phenel was 28. He looks like he's now 26. They'll see some value there and then can't like bump down from 24 to 23 Those are the three guys. I think I'm honing in on Um, if I'm not betting the favorites and I'm not betting long shots I can back those three and still get a return Yeah, um, so long as I'm smart about the rest of you know, everything else, but You know Xander's in great form phenel's in great form much more so than can't lay but can't lay coming off of a Uh solo third at the genesis. I think that means that he's good to go. He's good to be back These guys all have good all-around games. Tony phenel's putter More than fine by now So I don't think we have anything to worry about and we're just getting like good numbers on guys who Haven't won enough recently. Uh, despite the fact that Tony phenel's starting to win I love the setup for these guys. They can all gain strokes off the tee with approach with the putting I'll have good short games is by by which I mean around the green play there So those are the three guys that a my model shows value on and b makes sense to me for a week like this at these numbers Can't lay 23 to 1. I think the only concern you could have about him And I'm not sure if this qualifies as a concern for you is that he has not played bay hill Um Does that matter for you or no? Um, I don't love it, but I don't think that it's like the end of the world Frankly, especially because like you look at like again guys who can gain via multiple avenues off the tee Patrick cantlay does check that box in terms of He can get some distance. He can be accurate needs to be I think that's pretty enticing for cantlay at 23 to 1 be now 25 26 is andre 24 if you're picking one of those guys Who's your preferred outright? I think and this is You can just say xander, it's okay. It's really close between tony and xander. Wow. Um I'm gonna go I'll go xander disrespect to patrick cantlay disrespect Well, I did list them in order cantlay was third even though his odds were the shortest so no, you just hit him You hit him. It's okay. Patrick can't play you heard her first from brandon gadulla. Okay, not outright What are you looking for there for the arlen palmer? I really want to get like I don't really see a whole lot with the top tens. Yeah, so i'm bumping down to top 20s Uh, brian harman plus 3 10 for a top 20 He is uh 37th or better in both stroking it off the tee and approach over the past 50 rounds according to data golf Uh combined that puts him 28th in total ball striking now. He's not long off the tee He's 96th in the field, but he's accurate 22nd, which means that he should get a lot of his approach shots from the fairway, which Is not A bad thing. Yeah, right for this week. So I like that That you know the the recent success at bay hill hasn't been great But he does have three top 20s in his career at the course He's in good form now for who brian harman is so I like him Um at plus 3 10 for a top 20 Yeah, uh 3 10 for brian harman in the top 20 market over at fan duel And like you said, I think that the lack of distance might be why he's so long here. So You know, you can say he's not long. Okay. I can't take him here, but then you're kind of double counting I think the the bookmakers are accounting for that already and the rest of this game is very good And he does actually gain strokes off the tee despite not being super long So I think that that is you I think that with him it's a situation where you want to be careful You're not double counting the lack of distance Yeah, and you know, we talk about data golf all the time, but you can look and see okay What does being short mean? And according to them over the past 50 rounds he loses about four and a half yards You know to the average golfer right with his that's not that's different than like being Like hitting driving it as far as I do like Yeah, he ain't that he ain't that bad. So yeah, yeah, absolutely Okay, so brian harman t 10 or our t 20 at plus 3 10 whereas brand is looking at there But again zander schoff lay tony finau patrick can't lay all considerations terms of outwrites for it this week That's all we got brand It was good to have you back here on the show for this week glad to have you back in one piece From your excursion out to the west Um, and I'm looking forward to talking to you once again in a couple of minutes Or I guess I don't know whenever recording for the dfs side of things Yeah, it was good. Um I did knock a little bit of rust off But nobody should worry because the the process was there. It was just more like talking through it That was the rusty part. I thought I was forgetting your headphones was the process part that was no I hadn't plugged no, I hadn't plugged into my computer But you made me start plugging them into my head because you then you can hear yourself And you need to hear yourself or I'll do not know if your microphone is unplugged I unplugged my microphone like last week. I've never once unplugged my microphone. I unplugged like twice a week I know you messes up all my recording stuff and it's so annoying. I know but I I defaulted I defaulted to the thing I've done for 10 years and put it into my done incorrectly. Yeah, yeah for sure Yeah, absolutely. Anyway, that's brandy. Can you look check it out on twitter? Great to be back. Welcome He's never gonna return over again. I can deal with 13 senior managing editor of number fire com You can find his golf sims over at number fire and uh some mda stuff there as well I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s ed fang back with us tomorrow Talks in men's college basketball. That'll be a delight as always Come more nba and n h l coming up thursday e pl on friday as well We'll talk to you all again in the very near future. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network