 10th absolute on foreign relations for Shankar IAS Academy. Today we discuss the Iran nuclear deal, not a new topic. The details are known to most people, but it has assumed an urgency and importance after President Biden has taken over as the President of the United States. He agreed as soon as he took over that his objective was to return to the agreement reached between Iran and six members of the United Nations and the EU in 2015 from which President Trump had withdrawn. President Trump had a reasonable objection because he felt that the agreement covered only 15 years in controlling Iranian nuclear activities. And what happens after 15 years? And this was a valid argument, but what he did not take into account was the enormous difficulty in reaching such an agreement. In fact, even within the United States, Democratic Party itself and some in the Republican Party also had objected to the short period of time for which this agreement has been reached. So, but this was the best that could be achieved in continuous negotiations from 2013 to 2015. And the agreement had resulted in lifting the sanctions imposed by the United States and others on Iran. And Iran agreed to reduce their nuclear activities to such an extent that at least for 25 years it will not lead to the production of nuclear weapons in Iran. So it was a reprieve for everyone for some time and who knows what will happen 15 years later. In a sense, it was the diplomacy, the art of the possible. And President Obama had considered it his greatest diplomatic victory because he knew that Iran was a very proud nation and they would not make decisions contrary to their own understanding of their interests. And Iran is also a country which will go to extend to defend its interests. But considering the significance of such a move, the six countries and European Union on one side and Iran on the other side negotiated tirelessly for two years and created this, what we call the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan of Action, JCPOA. This continued till 2018 and most of the sanctions were lifted and Iran reduced their enrichment, uranium enrichment activities and other preparations for nuclear capability, which was of course verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In fact, the problem started as early as 2002 when I was India's Governor on the International Atomic Energy Agency. Suddenly news came out from some dissenting Iranians who revealed to the world that Iran was engaged in activities which might lead to manufacturing of nuclear weapons. This came as a big surprise because Iran was a member of the NPT and they were committed to not to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Iran first denied it. They said they did not need nuclear weapons, nuclear power, even nuclear power for themselves but as an insurance they are doing that but they had no intention to develop nuclear weapons. But at the pressure of the western countries which had received these messages, IAEA put pressure on Iran to allow inspection of their nuclear reactors and facilities which are meant for peaceful purposes. Long discussions took place within the board of the IAEA. Iran on one side, the developing country is supporting Iran on its right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy but at the same time telling Iran to go by the obligations of the NPT. India's position was also same. We kept saying that Iran has signed the NPT and therefore it must observe the regulations of the NPT. At the same time we said that Iran has every right to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes and so it could continue as long as the intentions were present. Several inspection units of the IAEA were allowed to visit different places where there was nuclear activity and I must say Iran cooperated in showing them whatever they could in order to convince the IAEA that there was no activity which would lead to creation of nuclear weapons. But each time this team went, they found more questions to be answered by the Iranians. Their inspection showed some suspicious activities here and there, some element of interest to reinvigorate them in certain places. Certain places were not opened to them for inspection. So each time the team came back and reported to us in the board of governors that the work is continuing and they were not ready to make a judgment as to Iran's intentions of their nuclear activities. Then the IAEA was again encouraged. Iran also wanted to clear their name and so on but after several inspections and several years, the IAEA submitted a report which said that they were not in a position to certify that Iran was not intending to make nuclear weapons. So they did not establish that they were actually wanting to make nuclear weapons but they could not say they were not. So this is not a very helpful finding for the Iranians which meant there was a little doubt. Not a little doubt but there was a fairly strong evidence but diplomatically put the IAEA said that they were unable to certify its peaceful intentions. And that became a major issue and the matter was referred to the Security Council and sanctions were imposed on Iran to dissuade them from continuing these activities. And this created very severe economic problems for Iran and they slowly came to the conclusion that it would be better to come to an understanding with the Western powers rather than drive the country down to poverty and economic troubles. Iran normally would not have done it because it's a very proud nation but they came to the conclusion that it was better to give up a few things in order to save the nation. And in 2015, the JCPOA was signed. In fact, it was not signed as a treaty that's why it's called JCPOA, just joint comprehensive plan of action rather than a treaty because there was opposition in the US Congress and it would have been difficult to pass this agreement through the normal legislative channels. But Obama took the responsibility and implemented it through a series of executive actions. And this is the arrangement which was jeopardized by Donald Trump and he walked out of it just like he walked out of the climate change agreement and said that this has to be renegotiated. This came as a shock not only to Iran but also the European partners who participated in these discussions. So for the United States to unilaterally withdraw from this agreement was not fair even to the Europeans. And you know how Donald Trump was, he was unpredictable. So he insisted on this. He said this was an agreement which should never have been signed, which should never have been accepted, this foolish, etc., etc., his usual characteristic manner and stern words. So nothing could be done to salvage or rescue the JCPOA. And Iranians took the position because USA reimposed sanctions, that is the crucial point. So when the US imposed sanctions against Iran, Iran wanted to rescue the agreement as it was. And in that they got the support of the European countries. So the European countries requested Iran not to take any precipitate action and try and see whether they could bring United States on board. But with Donald Trump being president, such a possibility was not there. And gradually Iran began to resume their nuclear activities. They increased the level of enrichment of uranium because if you are a member of the NPT, there are certain things you can do. Enrichment of uranium can be done to a particular point, a percentage. But they had exceeded it earlier and this time they started exceeding it more to serve a notice on the world that if this agreement was not in place, they would go ahead with their activities, which they never called the nuclear weapon activity. But they said these are peaceful activities which we need for our economic development. But they accepted that this can be renegotiated or brought back. And Mr. Biden as soon as he became president announced that we are going back to JCPOA as it is. So it doesn't matter of U.S. just returning to the JCPOA. But then the circumstances had changed in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. And so the situation continued till Mr. Biden became president and announced that he is joining it. But his joining was not so simple. In fact, somebody compared it to a Humpty Dumpty. Once it falls from the wall, it is very difficult to put it together. Because many of these international treaties are negotiated and signed at some unearthly hour, middle of the night, sometime when a fragile agreement emerges and the delegates worn out by the days of negotiations simply agree to it and go home. So it is such delicate agreements are reached. And when you have time to unravel it and see, look at it, everyone will want to change it. So the Iranians said when Mr. Biden said I am coming to come back, it is just a question of U.S. entering and Iran going back to its position. But he also said, Mr. Biden said in the chain circumstances we would also like UAE and Saudi Arabia to be also part of this agreement because they were equally concerned about the Iranian nuclear activities. And the IAEA, which keeps an eye on all this, also felt that it might not be possible to straight away re-energize this plan and we needed some discussions. And the matter was further complicated by IAEA finding through their own inspection routine that there are some activities were taking place in Iran, which was not in the purview of the JCPOA and these would also have to be treated. So in the first public statement, President Biden said to Mr. Thomas Freidman of New York Times, or he was briefed, the view of Biden and his national security team is that once the deal is restored by both sides, there will have to be in very short order around the negotiations to seek to lengthen the duration of the restrictions on Iran's production of missile material that could be used to make a bomb as well as to address Iran's maligned regional activities through its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. So Mr. Biden himself expanded the operation of this agreement beyond the items agreed in the JCPOA. So he introduced an element of the local situation, the proxy wars and also the charge that they were engaging in some other activities. Then he also mentioned Iran's Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates. And if possible, he also suggested that this could be for a longer period, not just 15 years. So several complicating elements were introduced into the negotiations. And now it is very clear that it cannot be done in a hurry. There is no, it will not be a cakewalk for the Americans and Iranians to look into this. The immediate question will be the compensation for the billions of dollars Iran had lost on account of the re-imposed sanctions because you've never really done. And so in the process, Iran lost a lot of revenue. The US or the Europeans will not be ready to pay any compensation, particularly as Iran had continued to breach the JCPOA limits on enrichment levels and acquisition of stockpiles and other equipment. So Iran had already assumed their activities beyond the limitations imposed on it. And these had to be taken into account also. Then Europe had also imposed some restrictions on oil purchases and other things on Iran, anticipating that Iran is moving in that direction. Reversing that process will be opposed by the hardliners in Iran partly because of the perception that the US is moving towards the left, because Mr. Biden has this reputation of being left in the United States, he is not being left, maybe the, maybe a little away from the rightist position. Then the Iranian parliament passed a bill that requires the atomic energy organization of Iran to significantly increase the enrichment and stop voluntary implementation of the agreement with the IAEA. It also suspended IAEA access to facilities that are covered by the JCPOA, but not in the protocol between IAEA and Iran, such as uranium mines and centrifuge rotor factories. So some of the establishments were not included in the JCPOA, but Iran was engaged in something for which he had to deal with answer to the IAEA and not to US and its partners. But now the other complication is that Iranian presidential election is due in June next. And we do not know whether the present President Rouhani and his foreign minister will survive the elections. There is some suspicion that this could be, if a hardliner president and a hardliner foreign minister were to be elected, then it will be difficult to save the JCPOA. Iranian foreign minister himself, a diplomat who was at the UN during my time, Devad Zarif, had raised doubts about proposals for a follow-up agreement. The JCPOA is fine with him. But a follow-up, adding other countries, increasing the length of life of the JCPOA, etc., are not acceptable. He said, we do not renegotiate what we have already negotiated. He said, during an interview at the Council of Foreign Relations in the US in September last year. But more recently he said that if the US implements the Security Council Resolution 2231, which means lifting sanctions, endorsing the JCPOA, the sanctions would be removed and that Iran will resume honoring its commitments under the JCPOA. So there are some variation in the approach. Originally he said, we do not renegotiate. But he said that we can resume it and maybe bring it back, provided the Americans take action under the relevant UN resolutions. So now it is a question of the chicken and the egg. Which comes first? Iran says you lift the sanctions. Let us have our trade. Let us make some money so that we do not become bankrupt. And then we will extend the JCPOA and restrict our activities. And the Americans are saying, you restrict the activities and tell us that you are implementing JCPOA and then we will lift the sanctions. So though both sides sound positive, it is not so simple as to resume the agreement. Biden will have some trouble because many Democrats are not very supportive of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Israel normalizing relations with the UAE and leading close into Saudi Arabia, there will be pressure from them on Biden not to make any concessions to Iran. Israel is the most worried about the Iranian nuclear capability because Iran does not recognize Israel. And Iran and also developed a missiles program and effort to dominate the region. So Israel being a good friend, the close friend of American will put pressure on Biden. That is another factor. Saudi Arabia is threatening to develop its own nuclear weapons if Iran can't be prevented from making its own. The UAE also wants to be a part of the negotiation by JCPOA, citing its nuclear cooperation agreement with the US under which it promised to permanently forego uranium enrichment and spend fuel reprocessing. UAE has an agreement with Washington that they will not do enrichment of fuel or reprocessing because the US has an agreement with Iran and therefore there is no requirement for us to do. But if they sense US making too many concessions, they will say we will also want to enrich our uranium and fuel processing. So in these circumstances, Europeans are generally willing to revive the JCPOA. But they are very concerned about the work that Iran is doing at this time. And they feel that this may be irreversible, that Iranian is moving more and more away from the agent. So they are also concerned about the IAEA informing the border governors that had discovered some isotopically altered particles, as they call it, of enriched uranium and that Iran's explanation, their origin, was not technically credible. So IAEA asked them about this material and the explanation they gave was not very credible or scientific. And Iran also is now supported to have 12 times more uranium than in 2016. After Trump withdrew from JCPOA, Iran's stockpile is now 2,442.9 kilograms, as against authorized 2.2.8 kilograms of enriched uranium. So that means it has gone more than 10 times what was agreed. So in November 2020, the border governors of the IAEA heard a report from the Director General of the IAEA of his findings about the detection of chemically processed uranium particles at an undeclared location. After interacting with Iran for more than two years, the IAEA reported that Iran's response was unsatisfactory. The report also noted that Iran's not technically credible explanations relate to the presence at the location in Iran, not declared to the agency of altered particles of dope enriched uranium, which with a detectable presence of uranium 206. So all these have complicated matters and we have to watch what follows. And as you know, the assassination of Mohsin Fakris Adi, who formerly headed an undeclared Iranian nuclear weapons effort, was assassinated and Israel was blamed by Iran for the assassination. Two derail attempts by the incoming Biden administration to rescue the Iran military because such a crime of killing one of their top scientists was openly honestly not acceptable to Iran. But that controversy that Israel may have killed the scientist has not been diluted because now they say it was a remote hit and they were not very sure. There was no person near the car which exploded and therefore it may not be Israel's doing that says there is no evidence and also it may be unrelated to the JCPOA. So the reversal of Trump's policy with regard to Iran, like the withdrawal from the Paris agreement, may not be a matter of just turning the clock back, but one of patient negotiations with uncertain consequences. The basic problem is that Iran may be willing to revive JCPOA to get the sanctions lifted, but it will not accept any additional commitments. In any event, we cannot expect any progress till the presidential election in Iran. So a number of possibilities have emerged, but as time passes, the situation is becoming more and more grim. There are certain things that both sides can do before the negotiations get on. One thing that the US can do is to lift sanctions partially because they cannot lift all the sanctions unless JCPOA comes back into force. So they could do it partially and Iran should refrain from any further nuclear activity. Whatever is done is done. They have 10 times the nuclear material which was permitted except all this and Iran freezes the situation as of today and the United States is lifting some of the sanctions so that Iran can export their oil and thus give the economy a boost which has suffered enormously in Iran because of the extraordinary impact of COVID-19 in Iran's economic situation. Their infections were very large. There were about 1.6 million infections of COVID-19 in Iran and 60,000 deaths and so this would reflect in the whole situation in Iran and as a result of that, Iran has already exceeded all levels of enrichment which they had agreed and now the enrichment has been raised to about 20%. 4.6 and 3.5 etc. but now it is 20% which means that it is weapon-grade uranium. So the chicken of the egg story continues and President Biden is making a very conscious effort to restart the negotiations and he has appointed one of the original negotiator Robert Nally as a negotiator this time to create some kind of a confidence building measure because they are people who are familiar to each other and also these countries would agree to the International Monetary Fund giving Iran some COVID relief funding. Because of the relationship with Americans is so bad, they are unable to even get the IMF support funding for COVID-19 even though what has happened to them is extraordinarily great. So all eyes are on Iran as well as the negotiating team in Washington to see who will take the first step but both need to do this very quickly because if Iran is unable to get the sanctions lifted it will get worse for them and a new government may be much more aggressive and they will try to go fully nuclear and same is the fear with the US that if something is not decided if a new more conservative weapon comes in Iran it will be very difficult to negotiate any. So June is some kind of a deadline for both sides and both sides are discussing this matter continuously in Vienna because the verification is being done by the atomic energy agency. So the atomic energy agency is getting more and more worried that they are finding suspicious materials in different parts of Iran and therefore they are also very anxious that these parties concerned should resume the negotiations but as of now it's a kind of standstill situation but it's not a standstill in fact it's a dangerous situation because Iran has not stopped its activities and the US has not lifted sanctions. The European Union and others who are involved in the negotiations are very keen and they are consistently trying to bring these two parties together. So let's hope that some solution will be found. Somebody should take the first step and if it happens maybe there is some problems but you can never say about the Middle East what happens tomorrow with a very explosive situation with Israel holding Arab territories getting close to the Arabs getting acceptable to the Arabs UAE and Saudi Arabia have become partners with Israel and so Iran's fear of Israeli action is even more and it is a difficult situation to predict but let's hope that before June something might happen to bring about at least the renewal of negotiations if not an agreement so that when the new government comes in Iran it will have very limited options to make the situation worse let us say. So that is where we stand and we need to observe the situation carefully to see whether we get out of the present impasse. As far as India is concerned our choices are clear. We do not want Iranian to become a nuclear weapon state that's very clear. We don't want another nuclear weapon state in our neighborhood. At the same time we have very close cooperation with Iran and when these things happen difference of opinion take place what happens is China gets into the act. China has already got into the act and has signed an agreement for economic cooperation with Iran and Iran in fact took away one of our projects of building a railroad and gave it to China saying that the project was not going as fast as they had expected so we do not want that to happen our relations to be heard in a way we are the Chabahar port for our use so if there is any kind of deterioration of the situation in Iran and its neighborhood it affects us. So we want Iran to give up its nuclear adventure as well as continue their economic cooperation with us. We are also not interested in sanctions against Iran because we are unable to purchase oil from Iran as we used to do earlier. And in fact President Trump used to threaten that they would also impose restrictions on other countries which do business with Iran fortunately it has not happened yet and that would be a much worse situation. So India has also vested interest in peace in Iran as well as some kind of an agreement that Iran will not go nuclear. Thank you very much.