 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm where today We are gonna use that for a jam-packed week number five of college football by talking to Ryan McChrystal of sharp football analysis getting his thoughts on some of the biggest games this week and his favorite bets for week number five My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the powering comm and had the past couple weeks in college football The slates have been just okay this week though Well, there are four separate games that feature undefeated teams on both sides. So it's gonna be a rock star type slate How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. I'm actually probably most excited about this Michigan at Wisconsin game Which doesn't fall in that category? But yeah, there's a lot of good stuff You know, I had Notre Dame Overrated at the beginning of the year and I believe that to be true or though it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column So that since the Notre Dame game means a lot to me and You know, I mean, I think in Cincinnati is a great story. I mean if they they I mean, I'm not sure about their offense, but that defense is pretty awesome and That'll be a fun contest. Yeah, it's certainly we're talking about that game We're gonna break down the Ole Miss Alabama game with Elaine Kiffin Discussion coming up and the way they play there the way to play things Arkansas, Georgia We're not gonna touch on Baylor versus Oklahoma State another Match of the undefeated either way gonna be pretty fun week of college football this week We'll break that down to the Ryan McChrystal. We've had him on the show before back when he was a number fire Now is sharp sharp football analysis a lot of smart people over there a lot people I respect a lot with Ryan at sharp football analysis You can find Ryan on Twitter at Ryan underscore McChrystal We'll talk in a week five of college football in just a bit But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have a college football right now tomorrow. We're talking NFL with Andy Molitor, you know, Andy Of course, we've had him on here a bunch of times breaking down week number four of NFL with Andy tomorrow That should be up sometime around two o'clock in the afternoon getting you set for the week four slates So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast while you're there leave us a rating and review as well And before we talk to Ryan, we got to go back to last week talk about that Notre Dame game from last week and go through what went wrong what went right in week four of college football covering the past Last week here on covering the spread we had Pamela Maldonado on to talk week four of college football Find Pamela on Twitter at Pamela M at 35 and check out all over all of her work Over on Yahoo Pamela started things off on Friday with Liberty versus Syracuse. I didn't go should have gone I was in Syracuse. We have had good luck with Friday games in Syracuse They upset Clemson on a Friday night didn't go this time should have gone because they upset Liberty Pamela had Liberty minus six Close to six and a half so half point of value there for her But Liberty's deep or Syracuse defense stepped up. They kept it scoreless in the first quarter They were up 14-nothing early in the second quarter Liberty fought back to tie it up with 1431 left But Syracuse hit a field goal at the buzzer to win this outright and cover and Ed Sentiment is pretty mixed around Syracuse at Syracuse like in the area. It seems like people are still Hesitant to buy in and I get that what are your numbers saying about the Syracuse team right now? Let's see I mean, you know not great Okay third in my in my predictive model that that I use for members on my site So not not quite there yet. The skepticism makes sense then for sure But kudos to them for defeating Liberty and covering there the big one for Pamela and for you was Notre Dame versus Wisconsin Pamela was on Notre Dame plus six and a half you had Wisconsin lane the points it closed it Wisconsin minus six that line bounced up and down all around it seemed like the entire entire week closed it minus six And it was a close game early on Wisconsin had a three-point lead early in the fourth quarter You look at the final score. You would never know that was the case Notre Dame take off return touchdown two pick sixes in the final three minutes, so Notre Dame 141 to 13 to get the cover for Pamela and Ed you were talking about how you're still skeptical of Notre Dame And how the underlying numbers Probably haven't changed based on that game. I'm guessing Uh, well, I mean, what do you mean the underlying numbers? I'm guessing that your numbers are not super enthused about Notre Dame despite uh a 41 to 13 win there Am I guessing well, I mean they kind of have to adjust Notre Dame up right because right There probably should be some asymmetry in that result, which is not something my model does at this point, but you know, I have I have a underlying model that um That looks at yards per play and yards and figures out what the expected score should be And in that model, Wisconsin won by eight, which is exactly what my prediction was Clearly, that's not how we uh judge bets. So The the turnovers. I mean, you know, Wisconsin just Grand mirth was terrible. I don't know. I don't know how else to put it He he was terrible and uh, you can't have terrible quarterback play even against an overrated Notre Dame team So Yeah, you know, it's a bummer. I mean, I bet at five and a half So and then watch that line yo yo back and forth between six and a half and five and a half I think you said it landed on six a vandal six. Yeah. Yep. So Yeah, I don't know these things move fast and and that's part of that That's part of the hard part of doing media, right? Right is uh, you know, I'm betting the game I don't I don't remember exactly what happened either hours or up to 24 hours before I'm talking about it and So but that's how it goes. Uh, I still Well, we'll talk about this later. I have no idea what to think about Wisconsin But I I don't think I don't think much of what I thought about Notre Dame change much Yeah, I think it's another There are always good examples of why final score is not always indicative of the way the game actually went And I think this is one of the better examples of that But uh, good on Pamela if we're going to cover there and then she nailed everything With Arkansas versus Texas A&M like across the board So Pamela Wanted to take the points of plus five and a half Thought that Arkansas could win the game outright and wanted under 47 and a half She got positive movement, but also everything hit Arkansas did the dang thing. They won that one 20 to 10 so a great call there by Pamela a great diagnosis, uh, both on that one in the Notre Dame game And I wish I had taken heat on her thoughts on Arkansas because I did not and literally like every point that she said was correct Where did it close a fandal? Uh, it closed at five the close of five. Yeah, okay. I thought I saw It was Texas A&M by five and then uh, total went down to 47 Okay, from what I saw at least I mean, I think I'm mistaken about the three and a half Okay, yeah, but like either way movement in her favor Uh a win in the back pocket for an underdog there, too So make sure you check out Pamela on twitter at Pamela m35 and find all of her work Over at yahoo after a successful week number four We got to put some pressure now ryan micristal, uh if we're uh with Pamela doing so well last week We'll see what ryan can do again He is of sharp football analysis you can find him on twitter at ryan underscore micristal We'll talk to him in just a second about week number five at first a football fans fandals giving you The chance to bet on week four the nfl season All you have to do is go to fandals sports book or download the fandals sports book app Place a three plus leg same game parlay with cash on any week four nfl game If your bet loses get a refund and site credit max refund is ten dollars that on week four the nfl season with Fandal by heading over to fandals sports book today and placing a risk-free nfl same game parlay Must be 21 plus and president arizona colorado iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee Virginia or west virginia refund issued as a non withdrawal of site credit that expires in seven days max refund Ten dollars restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com Same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web gambling problem call 1800 gambler Or visit fandal dot com slash rg in indiana one eight hundred nine with it For confidential michigan one eight hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine in west virginia one hundred gambler dot net Or in arizona call one hundred next step or text next step to five three three four two Covering the present Let's bring ryan mcrystal into covering the spread to toxin college football for week number five with a lot of big games On the schedule pretty radically different from the past couple of weeks in college football. So ryan big week ahead How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, really excited for us to kind of dive into the meat of the college football season now Yeah, it really is and it's going to be a fun one for sure four different matches between undefeated teams this week At least four bigger ones and we'll talk about three of those in a second But first this is the first time we've had you on since you joined sharp football analysis I was bummed when you were leaving because I loved your work over here at number fire But then I went from being like bummed to being like kind of jealous because you're working with like rich rebar Dan pazuta warren sharp and i'm like man It's a fun. That's a fun team. So how are things going for you over there? Yeah, things are going great. And yeah, it is a really fun team I've got like a small group of guys, but You know, we're all really dedicated to it and just having a lot of fun building things up over there And a lot of good smart people to bounce ideas off of too, which i'm sure is helpful as always let's uh, let's take a look at what's going on here right now and ryan We're pretty deep into the season I think it's okay to say if week five and we had week zero as well we've got you know relevant samples on Where we're good and where we're not in terms of betting analysis, etc, etc So when you're evaluating yourself Where have things gone well for you so far this year and why do you think you've done well in those areas? Yeah, I've gotten off to a really good start this year and it's sort of like good news bad news as to where i've done well because I think where i've had the most success is i was able to pinpoint some teams Last year who were probably a little bit overrated or underrated based on playing a shortened schedule Pretty much all pack 12 and big 10 teams And I pretty much was batting a thousand i'm pinpointing a few teams there, which you know, it's great I got off to a good start But then you know the markets are going to adjust and like I think I already jumped off the I was fading northwestern and then had to jump off last week because against a really bad ohio team They were only favored by 14 points And so I was like all right well like this we've run out of luck here The market has adjusted and realized that the downgraded from Peyton Ramsey to Hunter Johnson Ryan Heliske, which is that was the reason why I just right I thought Peyton Ramsey didn't get nearly enough credit for what he brought to making that a really capable offense last year In addition to losing some key pieces like regular use of my defense I thought they were in for a real steep decline and it has certainly played out that way Indiana was another one that I have been betting against and will continue again this week I'm gonna take penn state and that match up with uh, I believe it's 12 point spread right now And basically like that was a situation where I think another team that in a Normal season if they you know, they play their full schedule. They're probably like a good eight and four team But because they have so much success I'm like not only a weird step shorten schedule But they got penn state in one of the worst seasons in recent memory They got michigan in one of the worst seasons in michigan's recent memory They got you know, they had an ohio state team, which is obviously very good And you know, it was a close game at the end but Ohio state dominated that game for a good portion of it They covered the spread at halftime were leading by three touchdowns well into the third quarter But justin feels had a terrible game through three interceptions Some of which were just brutal and oh house they just took the ball out of his hands Late in that game which allowed indiana to come back and this was before the trace sermon breakout So their run game wasn't really able to just like grind through the end of that game and around the clock So indiana made it look a lot closer And so I think that It just like really pumped up indiana a lot and that was just you know, a really easy opportunity to fade them early this season That's one that I think could you know, at least for another week can maybe still be profitable I don't think the market has really caught up to how Uh mediocre that team is So ron, I do want to ask about indiana because this is a team This preseason that I saw as a very high variance team and the reason I mean, we know what they did well last year But but penix was bad And he was really good in 2019. So Did you have confidence that he was not going to get back to his 2019 form as part of your analysis this this preseason Yeah, I mean, I I don't really think penix was very good last year I think he has an exceptional receiver and You know frifogel was just able to just do so much for him last year Even in that ohio steak in that reference he had a monster game And so much of it was all him and not it wasn't penix fitting the ball into windows It was you know, his receiver is just going up and dominating ohio states cornerbacks who obviously struggled last year So it was something that they could take advantage of And that's just that's not going to continue on a week-to-week basis. You know, there's a lot of you know good to You know strong defenses in the big 10 that he has to go up against and you can't You just can't go through a schedule with a bad quarterback and expect your receiver to bail you out week after week in that schedule So Yeah, you know penix's performance last week was particularly bad. I don't think he's as bad as he looked at the end of that game Um, but I don't think he's the type of quarterback that can elevate, you know Average talent to like a nine or ten win season Yeah, for sure. I mean my numbers really liked him in 2019 and and that was the question for me Was was he gonna kind of was he gonna get back to that? The answer so far has been no And uh interested just to see um How that unfolds Yeah Ryan we did want to bring you here a little bit to talk about some heisman odds Matt Correll is now the favorite at plus 150 Uh, we got bryce young at plus 300 any value in this market for you A little bit this year. It's interesting that you want to talk this up This is I tend to stay away from the heisman markets Maybe because I'm a little too close to it when I used to write for ESPN for about five or six years I wrote a weekly heisman predictor article. I had a formula that we developed about 10 years or so ago Um, which did really well at predicting, you know going into the vote And that yeah, I believe at the time we made it I believe it went back correctly about 14 or 15 years and then the five or six years we did it It hit correctly everyone except for literally the closest vote in heisman history when uh mark ingram won That was the one year where we missed But doing that and looking at it so closely on a weekly basis I just like was intimately familiar with how you can't predict it in september And the guys who are the front runners, you know Like you can often pick like three or four names and like, you know There's a reasonable chance, you know, one of those three or four names are going to be right But I think because we talk about the heisman so much right out of the gate As opposed to like the mvp and other sports the odds adjust really quickly. So like, you know, like you talk about corral Bryce young I definitely don't think it's going to go to corral Just we don't see a lot of purely numbers based heisman winners, which is his candidacy, but brice young very legitimately You know is up there at the top. I could definitely see him winning it But the numbers that you're getting to bet on that just It's there's just no value in it. I don't think you just would have to risk too much To make a decent profit off of that. And so I just don't think it's worth it But I did I have I do have two bets. Um, I did place a bet on travion henderson at ohio state um As one that was the first bet I got last week and then I placed another one on dorian thompson robinson This week and the way that I approach it when I do look at the heisman market is to try to look about storylines And again just from following it so closely and seeing like how The candidacies really evolve week to week. It's so much a storyline based award. The stats matter, of course But you know the guys elevate with those like heisman moments that we talk about every year and in addition to the specific Moments it's more just like how is the perception of this player relative to their team and the opponents that they're facing So like the henderson bet on place is that We've seen ohio states defense really struggle. We've seen cj stroud look kind of up and down We don't even know if he will be the quarterback throughout the whole season So I feel like if ohio state rebounds, maybe they run the table and go to the college football player It's certainly a possible outcome for them The storyline will be henderson carried them there. Here's this true freshman phenomenon who carried them And I mean if that happens, you know, who knows if he wins, but very good chance He's a finalist based on the numbers and a similar thing with dorian thompson robinson Part of the reason I jumped on that with the odds are 15,000 Plus 15,000 right now, which is just absurd. There's some players with absolutely zero chance including You know, my and williams or how say it's now back up running back has better odds Why? So part of it was just the odds were just so great But there's a legitimate storyline that I could piece together for him You know, if you see all the wins their next three games are very winnable. They'll go into that game with organ Huge national attention chip kelly versus organ The winner of this game has becomes legit the pack 12 frontrunner chance to go to playoff If he carries them to a win in that game, suddenly he's among those top four or five names And so getting him at such long odds right now just felt like, you know, yeah, he certainly is a long shot But Within a couple weeks, you know, there's a very clear storyline path to him there skyrocketing up So what I do back those are sort of the things that I go for Well, I'm curious you said you were like building out this this model for ESPN and it is like a narrative-based award How do you account for narratives or trying to build up something that's like quantitative? Are you doing like search traffic or like what how are you able to quantify that that that aspect of it? Yeah, I think if we were doing it now, we might actually do something I think it would be interesting. You could certainly probably use some twitter data. I went now social media interactions to But at the time when we did I think 2008 was the first year so we didn't we weren't using that twitter hadn't really blown up yet You know So the way that we tried to capture that was looking specifically at performances in big games You got a big boot. I forget exactly. It's I haven't kept up with it since I stopped writing right a few years ago But I think it was you got performances You've got based on your stats in big games against top 10 opponents And then you got a further boost if you won the game And so that's tried to capture some of that like storyline type because that's like certainly Those games whether the most eyeballs are on you or the games that matter, you know If you have a bad game or no one's watching There's a there's a lot of heisman winners who have some bad games on their resumes But you can completely erase that by playing well and like a you know, a big upset over top five team or something like that Right and like that track to the last year divante smith showing out in those like huge games at the end of the year Obviously you want it he had he had pushed himself towards before then too But like that pretty much sealed the deal there. So that's that's a really interesting way to attack that I also want to talk because you know, we're not talking to Ohio State Rutgers this week But we've got you here. We might as well talk some Ohio State. What's your sentiment on them heading into this match up with Rutgers? This is a tough one. I'm probably going to stay away from betting this game This week Rutgers is one of the teams I mentioned at the beginning figuring out teams in the big 10 pack 12 Rutgers betting on Rutgers has been a profitable strategy so far this season Um, I like what shiana is doing there. They and they actually have a couple playmakers But a mountain is a stud and offense and so they're much improved I I don't know what to make of them going into this matchup in particular Ohio State has just been so hard to figure out and so much of the changes that they've been making Especially on the defensive side of the ball is one of the reasons why I'm not quite sure how to bet Ohio State right now. Obviously they made that change with the play caller Giving the defensive play calling dudes over to Matt Barnes taking it away from Kerry Combs So Barnes has now had two games in the first game He seemed to shift much more dramatically towards using man coverage Which Ohio State had previously excelled out for a long time under urban Meyer, but then last week He scrapped that and basically ran all zone. So I think he's still just sort of like tinkering with things So I'm kind of hesitant to bet Ohio State at all for a couple weeks until we kind of figure out Until I can anticipate what their game plan is going to be into a game. It's hard to Evaluate how any team is going to match up with them So do you feel like Um, I mean, do you feel like the defense is going to get better? I think it has the potential to because one of the weak links early on has been the secondary and it's very young Um, and they do have some good coaches Matt Barnes was a secondary coach And he has a good track record there Kerry Combs before he was the defense coordinator had an exceptional track record as the secondary coach at Ohio State So I do have some amount of confidence in their ability to coach up the young players and maybe eliminate some of the mistakes Some of the you know, there's other issues. The past rush has been underperforming relative to expectations That was supposed to be the area where the defense is really strong Right out of the gate. The linebackers are also very inexperienced Don't really know what to expect from them. But when you have a lot of young players, obviously you can Have reasonable hope for improvement throughout the season So I do think it's possible that they'll look a lot better by seasons end But who knows like this the tinkering that they're doing You know that that can really mess with young players too. So, you know, I think it could really go either way at this point Yeah, I mean Ohio State has had such a ridiculous track record of defensive backs going to the nfl The past defense has been so good for over a decade And then I just kind of stopped last year And uh, they got they got to fix it if they're going to get back to The the national prominence you did mention that you didn't weren't sure where the cj stroud was going to be the quarterback for the rest of the year You did tweet earlier that you had confidence in ron day to get this decision, right? Where are you with with the pass offense? I'm pretty optimistic I I think cj stroud is probably going to remain the starter once he's healthy day has certainly indicated that But there is obviously a lot of pressure on them to win right now So if he has a couple media over game, that wouldn't be stunned if he changed course But my my stance on having confidence is basically just Putting a little bit of blind faith or I guess you wouldn't necessarily call it blind faith in ron day because he has He's coached more first-round draft picks than every other ohio state coach in history. He's already produced two The two court backs, you know, he was there as the offensive coordinator and joined haskins and then Um, just in fields, obviously the rest of ohio states history. They only had arch Leester So I've got to give him a huge benefit of the doubt that he has watched these guys In practice and has picked the guy that he thinks is at their best to lead the team and you know, I I suspect that not only does he has he picked the guy that he has confidence in but there's probably been a gap Based on how he handled the injury You know, it was obvious The first time I noticed it was in the organ game where cj stroud after a lot of throws Especially in the second half It's kind of stretching out his shoulder a little bit like just kind of rolling his shoulder You could tell was bothering him heading into that game. There were a lot of like Message board rumors about the shoulder being an injury I I didn't hear them discuss it on the broadcast. I didn't watch every second of the game So maybe they mentioned I missed it, but I don't believe they did But just the fact that you could like actually see him Rolling his shoulder and kind of stretch it out during the game and it pretty obvious that it was bothering him So the fact that he went with stroud and stuck with him while he was clearly not a hundred percent against Minnesota and organ He kind of tells me that and even against Tulsa. It kind of tells me that Maybe they thought you know what? We're not as good as we were in the past. Maybe we need this guy because he is significantly better So let's go with you know, 80 90 percent Whatever he thought he was of stroud through those first couple games and then akron comes around and it's like, okay The shoulder's still bothering him Of course fine. We're gonna beat akron. No problem That's purely a guess on my part But just seeing that he clearly wasn't a hundred percent and he still stuck with stroud through all of that even as he was struggling at times It tells me that day probably thinks that there's a pretty good gap and as far as his stroud progression I just have to put some faith in in day and his track record so far Yeah, I would agree. I You know as as someone who lives here in Ann Arbor, I I think you still have to give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt Uh, you do see the struggles on defense, but Um, yeah, I mean they probably might figure it out Ryan as an Ohio State fan, um, let me throw this at you. What where are you looking at? Where are you on Michigan right now? I'm kind of wait and see obviously I you've got to be impressed by what they've done with the run game Um, and that can carry you a really long way in the big 10 Could possibly carry you to an undefeated season right up until the Ohio State game But to get past Ohio State they have to throw the ball And they haven't proven that they can do that yet. So I I have to say that I'm just sort of at that wait and see Mode for them and might be there all the way up until the Ohio State game They might not need to throw the ball a whole lot with the way the run game has looked But then, you know, Ohio State, you know, even against a good defense, they're going to put up points and I just In a game like that, you know, Michigan can probably continue to run the ball In Ohio State like that's that's not going to be a problem based on what we've seen from their defense Even if they improve a little bit, they're not going to suddenly shut down a really good run game like Michigan's but When you can throw the ball like Ohio State can you just have more margin for error? Like, you know, let's say Ohio State makes a couple mistakes early in the game and you know, they Fall behind by two touchdowns going into halftime. They're fine. You know, they can come back and make up two touchdown difference on Michigan But what if Michigan does that what if if they fall make a couple mistakes and they fall behind by two touchdowns on Ohio State going into the second half, maybe even going to the fourth quarter Maybe maybe they're in trouble. I don't know. We haven't really seen them in that situation where they have to throw the ball But I think, you know, given those two potential outcomes You'd certainly have to give more benefit of the doubt to Ohio State at this point Just because we know that they at least have a decent passing game and can make up a deficit Michigan is we just we really have no idea what it looks like right now Yeah, I think having outs Ways to get out of bad situations is kind of a key and something that we don't know about as of yet So let's move now into the big games coming up this week starting off with Arkansas at Georgia Georgia 18 and a half point favorite Here total is 48 and a half and Arkansas is undefeated one of these games are both teams undefeated They had good wins, but they came at weird times because uh, kasey thompson didn't play most of that first texas game Zach Calzada got started for a and m there off the injury so How much stock are you putting into those wins for arkansas? I'm just their their forno start in general Yeah, it's sort of the Tale of two stories for me with them offense and defense. I'm a hundred percent buying the defense Uh, mostly because of the pass for us They're blitzing at the second lowest rate in the country so far and they're still getting pressure at 44 or a 41 clip which included a 44 rate against texas a and m which has good pass protection So i'm a hundred percent buying into the defense if you can get pressure When you're only bringing four pass rushers You have an exceptional defense because it just You know when you blitz a quarterback a good quarterback Knows that somewhere out there There's a one-on-one matchup that I can try to take advantage of more often than that When you can get pressure with only four It doesn't matter how good the quarterback is at processing That matchup might not be out there and so you're going to force a quarterback into situations where They're either taking sacks just holding on the ball and going down or they're taking big risks And you know, that's just the ability to do that You know, that's just such a huge asset to a defense to be able to force quarterbacks into those situations And the fact that we saw them do that against texas a and m Even though the quarterback play was down the offensive line is still very good And they should have been able to protect, you know, their quarterback regardless of who was back there So I have a lot of faith in arkansas pass rush. I think they're going to give Georgia problems this weekend offense. I don't know. I'm still kind of figuring out What kj jefferson is He's been kind of mediocre under pressure so far and they haven't protected Then he was pressured 52 of the time against texas a and m last week And so, you know, you have a quarterback like that with Inexperience, even though he's mostly looked good, you know, george is going to get a lot of pressure on him too And you know, it can just be one or two Bad mistakes that he makes against a really opportunistic defense like that And suddenly the game is kind of like it could snowball out of control. So You know, I I'm this is a situation where the spread's so big because I think arkansas defense is so big I'm definitely leaning that way But I don't I don't I don't know. I don't have a ton of kind. I'm trying to talk myself into arkansas Maybe even putting a little bit on the arkansas money line Just thinking if they can get, you know, a turnover or two on defense that, you know, they could pull off a big upset I'm trying to talk myself into that but I don't know if you guys are with me on arkansas I'd be curious to hear because i'm trying to lean that way further Well, you're kind of making me think about the total in this game because you have faith in the arkansas defense Maybe not as much in the offense. Are you thinking under 48 and a half or is that one also a bit muddy free? Yeah, it's that's a tough one because again, like I think we're looking at a game where either side could commit multiple turnovers And that can obviously like quickly ratchet up right score. So it's again It's probably one where i'm like I would lean under but I don't know because I don't have a ton of faith in either quarterback Yeah, interesting. Yeah, my number is like georgia in this game have them buy a little bit more than 20 so You know, I mean kind of in a year devoid of some of our traditional powers and even alabama doesn't look Quite as good as they were last year My number seemed to like georgia at this point. So we'll see obviously this is some tough competition in this in inter uh division mashup Let's go to Cincinnati at Notre Dame now Cincinnati one and a half point favorite here in total 50 and a half and ryan you tweeted I think it's september 6th if I remember correctly about how you thought the wrong team was favored in this game Notre Dame is here at the time. Obviously that has since since flipped. So you were on Cincinnati from the jump What puts you on them initially? Yeah, I actually this line was available over the summer and I bet since nanny I think it was two and they were getting two and a half and I bet then and then I think the tweet the referencing was That was after week one Yeah, I went back because I gained a little more confidence after Notre Dame's week one performance And it was still available at that number. So I went back and doubled down on it And it was there was a couple factors for me. It was number one since I returned just a ton of talent on defense It was a great defense last year Just returning almost everybody gave me a ton of confidence the secondary gets a lot of publicity Amad Gardner is a potential first-round pick. He's a stud Kobe Bryant arc on bush They've got some really studs back there in the secondary, but specific to this matchup They return almost their entire front seven Uh, my jay sanders and Joel de Blanco are there two big pass rusters sanders. It's sort of like the every Down pass rusher de Blanco. He's kind of a linebacker 50 50 split Pass rush dropping back coverage and he's he's been a beast this year He's actually getting pressure on 40 of his blitzes, which is incredible Um, and so looking at that strength relative to Notre Dame where we've had, you know, most teams around the country brought back a lot of talent Notre Dame didn't They specifically lost a lot of talent on the offensive line I believe it was three starters. I might have that number slightly off But they've lost a lot of their best offensive linemen And then they also lost Ian books mobility, which as a pure passer the difference between book and cone I don't know if there's a huge difference You could maybe even talk me into cone being a little bit better based on like what we've seen from his at his best moments But book if you take away sacks and kneeldowns book average almost 50 yards a game on the ground for Notre Dame last year That was a huge part of their offense not just his production on the ground But just being able to avoid pressure to make plays outside the pocket and cone can't do that um, that's Going to be an issue if when you're facing a defense like Cincinnati and then You know specific to you know when I made that tweet after the first game We saw Notre Dame's offensive line like I was expecting them to take a step back. I did not expect them to be terrible This is an awful offensive line. They can't block in the run game. They can't protect the quarterback It's absolutely one of the worst in the country and they're going up against One of the best, you know, it's always it's hard to quantify where a group of five team stacks up, but you know, I'm comfortable saying that this is at least a top 15 pass rush in the country for Cincinnati. I mean, it was an awful offensive line for Notre Dame. So That that's a huge mismatch that just You know when your quarterback starts feeling pressured and panicking, you know Notre Dame saw it from the flip side last week How that game against wisconsin was like, you know, kind of maybe within reach and then grand mertz just absolutely Yeah, just complete implosion because he was feeling some of that pressure And that could very easily happen to Notre Dame this week The game could snowball out of control if the pressure is too much So, yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna bet this week because obviously I'm thrilled to have gotten an even better number A couple weeks ago, but you know, I I think he said it was at one and a half Yeah, if I weren't already on it, I think I'd still be on that for Cincinnati I think they're a fairly significantly better team You know, certainly I would bet it up to two and a half If it goes that direction Ryan, uh, Jack Cohen still listed as questionable. I don't know if you have any more information on that But clearly probably a little bit of a downgrade if you can't go in this big matchup Yeah, probably and it sounds like, you know, based on a little bit of what we saw from pine last week He's probably not an upgrade in terms of mobility. So that like potential advantage that I think We've identified with cone the downgrade from book to cone not being able to be left on the pocket I think that's probably still an issue even if cone can't go. So Yeah, you know, I think regardless of who's back there since then he has just a huge advantage Probably being able to overwhelm that Notre Dame offensive line Excellent. All right, let's head to our last game. We got Ole Miss at Alabama. Alabama's 14 and a half point favorite massive total of 79 and a half Um, I think next they've been probably would have puked if you would have been the total like this 10 years ago, but um, yeah, so obviously pace of play matters. What do you see in this game? Yeah, I mean, Ole Miss is gonna come out and just they're gonna play their style of football I think that it's just like so ingrained in who they are You know, they want to play fast Not just to increase possessions and you know force the other team into a shootout But it's so much a part of how they have success The types of plays that they're calling they're trying to get the ball quickly And those plays are going to be more successful when you have a defense on their heels You're just they're just hoping to catch the defense off balance. Maybe out of position at a play Corral so far this season. He's only taken a traditional drop back 27 of the time So the overwhelming majority of the time they're taking one-step drop backs or rpo's and just trying to get the ball Quickly and because they're moving at such a fast pace they know that no matter what defense they're playing A handful of plays per game the defense is going to be out of position And they're going to be able to break off some one place even against Alabama Which we saw last year it happened They're going to be able to force any defense to make mistakes because corral is so good The receivers are so well in tune with him that they can run at that pace And they're not going to be the ones to make mistakes and a couple of times a game the defense will make mistakes And so I think that their Hope in this game is basically like we're going to play our style of football. We're going to run up and down the field You're going to make some mistakes. We're going to score Hopefully you're not as good at doing this as we are which you know Alabama is deservedly a heavy favorite in this game But maybe the fact that Bryce young is inexperienced the more inexperienced quarterback in this game If you try to force him to pick up the pace Maybe you can force him to make some of the mistakes that corral is unlikely to make when Olmice is on offense. So I would I'm probably going to stay away from betting this game But I would give Olmice a sliver of a chance just based on the possibility that young makes some murky mistakes Well, I'm curious if you were in Olmice's shoes Would you keep the the foot on the gas like just from a coaching perspective to try to keep that advantage you were talking about or would you try to increase the variance slow this game down You know and muck it up a bit because I think that what you're saying makes a lot of sense But also I just want to limit the time out the alabama can throttle me. Basically. That's yeah I I definitely understand that argument. I I think I would just have to sort of gauge my personnel and decide what I was comfortable with because The other not only you know, if you slow the game down, there's fewer possessions you know, there's more variance in those games, but You would also gain advantage of maybe catching alabama off guard a little bit if you mixed up your offense a little bit So there would be some advantage to doing that Maybe but you would have to trust your offense to still be explosive because you are still going to have to put up points Because alabama is going to put up points on your defense So I don't I wouldn't necessarily Immediately lean towards doing that just because like like I've got the veteran quarterback in this game I know I have talented receivers. I know I'm going to score points against alabama Maybe if I run up and down the field and put a ton of pressure on Bryce young he's going to make like I said before He's the more inexperienced quarterback in this game. There's a possibility He costs alabama the game. I make by trying too hard to keep pace if Ole Miss is able to gain a lead at some point Maybe he forces some passes I'm certainly not betting on that happening, but I do see That being a potential outcome. Yeah, you can see a path that happening. I think that's that's smart to point out Even if you're not going to bet it being aware that is a path that could occur. Okay, so you talked to me about But isn't isn't we got we got to put the gymsonist revenge angle after uh, when Ole Miss did the alabama's defense last year, right? So I mean, there's a lot of revenge angles in this game like Yeah, two teams that play every year imagine that Yeah From from the defensive side though, like even if you're looking at from the venue Yeah, the defense wants to get revenge, but Can you when you have yeah such a talented offense playing I think like I think that's really the main question in college football, right? I mean, we we saw elite offenses just do whatever they want against even good defenses like alabama last year And so in some sense, you know, this game to me is you know, is Ole Miss really an elite offense You know are in the mold of what alabama did last year or how state did last year Um, we'll see Yeah, I think the revenge angle is something I always love just to talk about for funsies I don't know if it's a good like lane kiffin is one of the weird dudes We're like he's such an odd duck But I don't think I can apply it to him even jokingly because I don't know the way his mind operates So I don't even know if we can do this a joke anymore, but we'll see it should be a fun game either way Hopefully we get a lot of points in this one You talked a bit about Penn State Indiana Potentially being a game you might be betting this week any other game standing out to you As presenting value for week five Yeah, there's two others the first one I'd actually be curious to hear your take on too because I'm kind of second guessing myself Basically how the line has moved when I saw that Clemson was favored by over two touchdowns and opened it 14 and a half against boston college My immediate reaction was why on earth wouldn't I take boston college when clemson hasn't even scored more than 14 points in regulation against an FBS opponent like that just jumps out to me as just like I just like can't imagine Then covering that big of a spread when they've started out boston college You could you can make an argument is probably the worst defense that they have faced, you know throwing away the fcs game, obviously But it's not like they're a bottom feeder type of defense Either they've been very good against the run, you know that their lack of a pass rush is really the one Potential issue that they've had but then Clemson's offense line is terrible So maybe their pass rush is actually decent in this game. So And then boston college has a you know a capable offense. So I I feel like I would feel really good about it if bill jacovic was still back there. I feel less You know, I'm a little more hesitant within this gross sell at quarterback But he's you know, he's got I believe 10 starts in his career under his belt now He's proven to be a capable starting quarterback. They have some good Playmaker playmakers obviously, you know, zay flowers as a playmaker Freshman receiver jaden williams has looked good in some games so far this season. So I just feel like They're not going to get shut out. And so You know, the implied total for Clemson this game is 30 points Why would we expect them to be able to do that after what we've seen against some other, you know, okay defenses You know nc state is not a powerhouse defense. So I don't know. Are you guys strongly on Clemson? I feel like I'm second guess because the line has actually gone up now since it opened at that big Yeah, that's kind of funny. I actually I actually do like Clemson in this game And it's partially because of some of my adjusted numbers Uh, I think I I think the past defenses that Clemson played Georgia was first North Carolina state's ninth and Georgia Tech was almost top 25 And this this is all based on this year's data. So small sample size, right? So Um and Boston College is like 90th or something terrible. So So I think along with that, uh, I think I mean, it's it's a big step down in competition From the adjusted success rates that that I'm looking at and and I think that's a big reason. Um I think Clemson is clearly not what they were last year, but You know now now the game is to figure out how far have they fallen, right? Are they still good enough to win the division? Probably, you know, in the same way that I still give Ohio State that same benefit of the doubt Uh, I think we we still need to with Clemson and you know, I mean and and Boston College I mean their offense has been good, but How much of that is the quarterback probably a lot. So, um Yeah, so anyways, those are those are kind of my thoughts on that Yeah, I feel like it's a dabbo After the first couple weeks narrative of like, oh a dabbo doesn't try to hard the first couple of weeks We'll buy in after that and it's you know, given their schedule this year. I don't think that narrative really applies So I'm still skeptical pretty skeptical of that team for sure Let's talk to you now about the other the other game you had in your mind. What was the other one besides Clemson? Yeah, the other one is a game. I'm I'm actually on usc this week. They're giving seven and a half against colorado This is mostly about just flying to fade colorado uh, I just think that Their quarterback play has been just abysmal. Brendan Lewis has been awful and he's specifically been bad when he's pressured and against blitzes He's averaging 4.7 adjusted net yards per attempt against the blitz, which is Down near the bottom and usc blitz is 44 of the time and they have success when blitzing the defense You know that area has not been one of their issues this season Uh, so I just think this is a situation where you know a shutout is in play here usc doesn't need to be great on offense And the other aspect that I think some the reason why this line might be fairly low and why some people might be nervous about Butting usc is just sort of like they've already made a coaching change. They've already had a couple losses like is this team going to quit And I I feel like the way they responded against washington state right after the coaching change and have a nice performance there I feel like I have a reasonable amount of confidence that you know, there's still a lot of motivation here for this team This isn't just the wheels aren't going to come off yet Maybe it happens later, you know, especially if they have another brutal upset, you know If they were to lose this game, who knows what happens moving forward, but I feel like You know, there's there's still They're still plowing forward and trying to make something out of this season And so against a team like colorado where it just seems like they have no direction no identity I think that this game has the potential to just be an opportunity for usc to get things back on track And just sort of roll fairly easily And there's yeah, yeah, there's certainly talent there. I mean, you know, I think Uh, they they had that performance against washington state with with jackson dartis quarterback, and then he heard himself and now keyden slovis is back and You know, I expected that got to be an fl traffic next year And he uh, he doesn't seem to be he doesn't seem to want that right now So I think a lot of that depends on the quarterback play Yeah, definitely the quarterback play needs to improve, but then they also even if it doesn't get back to what it was The receivers are still good. You know drake london is an absolute stud. He's he's you know, I think he's the front runner You know an all-american Receiver this year at the performance that he's had his ability to stretch the field which has been an area where usc has been You know kind of hit or miss over the last couple seasons because you know, so much of that offense is geared towards getting the ball quickly and now london has really Elevated their ability to stretch the field a little bit. You know, I could see their offense You know taking some steps over the next couple weeks and you know, like I said a team like colorado That just seems to have no identity whatsoever. Maybe this is not an opportunity where they win big and get things back on track a little bit All right, well usc is seven and a half point favorite against colorado on saturday That is ryan mcrystal make sure you check him out on twitter at ryan underscore mcrystal and find his work Over at sharp football analysis ryan, we appreciate the time Good luck to you both in college football and the nfl this week and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Yeah, thanks for having me guys. It's fun. Appreciate it. Thank you Covering the future Big thank you once again to ryan mcrystal for swinging by and breaking down week five of college football And I thought we had a pencil down ryan for the ohio state michigan matchup later on this year because it's it's cool To get the the dueling perspectives people who are like fully entrenched on both sides there Yeah, exactly. And that's why I mean I kind of sprung it on i'm asking about michigan I definitely told him I wanted to ask him about ohio state, but I think it's good to get some unfiltered opinions Uh, I think he actually agrees with a lot of michigan fans who are still waiting to see We'll get an important data point obviously uh this weekend when they go to camp randall, but Yeah, I mean i'm always trying to check my biases. Um and uh I think it'd be easier for me to see more gloom and doom in ohio state But I just don't think that's quite warranted yet Um, so we'll see where it goes So you were talking about that michigan wisconsin game Let's move to that now with covering the future right now wisconsin two and a half point favorite against michigan He talked about how michigan fans are skeptical Seems like sports books still hesitant to buy in despite grand mertz's performance last week So how are you doing this game between the wolverines and the badgers? I think this game is is almost impossible to predict. Um, and and by the end of the What i'm going to talk about you'll see that i'm not betting aside in this game michigan has looked great this year and After four weeks, I have all my schedule adjustments and michigan is looking even better Partially because wisconsin michigan has beaten pit on the road. They dominated san jose state at home last week you know that uh michigan also um Really beat up on northern illinois a team that beat george attack that gave clumps in the game So those are the things that are all kind of considered when i'm making schedule adjustments um And then you know wisconsin really hasn't had the best season They've lost to penn state in the opener. They lost the Notre Dame last week They're a collective minus seven in turnover margin in those two games And you're you're not going to be a good competition when you do that So let's just kind of look at the variety of predictions that you can make on this game So pre-season i would have made wisconsin a seven and a half point favorite in this game at home um, and Now we have four weeks of data. We make adjustments for it and for wisconsin I actually didn't really downgrade them much after the penn state game I think they had more yards in that game Better yards for play. There's a couple turnovers late. I mean wisconsin did have a chance to win that game Clearly they they did take a little bit of a downgrade after the Notre Dame game last week And it wasn't just the turnovers. It was partially the score and the success rate metrics as well So after that game finishes, you know, we're probably looking at wisconsin as a small favorite uh against michigan And then michigan plays ruckers and they get out to a solid 20 to 3 lead at halftime But then the offense just kind of shut down in the second half rucker scores Really makes that a game So so my best predictor model that that members have access to has wisconsin by 4.7 points in this game and Fandal opened with wisconsin as a one point favorite has moved one and a half So it's kind of moving in the direction of my model But if you really want to bet wisconsin at this point with a quarterback and grandmorts that has really struggled In all facets of the game. I think that's a really hard sell right now And with michigan, you know, we're also talking about whether the first three weeks were amraged so What I find most interesting is that now i'm running Metrics based on data from the current season points success rate yards for play put it together in the ratios that I found to be most predictive And this model actually makes michigan a 21 point favorite on the road And again a lot of that's at the strength of schedule adjustments, right? I mean washington has kind of bounced back. I know the team that the michigan beat uh doesn't really think that highly wisconsin right now and um I think this just kind of goes to show you the range of outcomes from, you know One model saying wisconsin is going to be a five point favorite to data from this year's thing. Michigan should be 21 points I want nothing to do with the side. Uh, but I do think it's interesting. Uh, Just just the variety of outcomes that can happen in this game, right? I want to talk to you about that too because like You don't have to give an actual number like how much of your the number you give to your subscribers is 2021 data versus the prior like what's you don't have to give the actual weighting But like how much of it is 2021 data versus the prior? So so that's that's the way that my model used to run 2019 and previously So you'd have a preseason prior and then you would work the data in and the weight would get less and at this point in the season You know, you still be pretty much on on the preseason 14 is not a lot so um Yeah, and and then there's some other factors in there as well So what I found last year in in the in the necessity out of the pandemic was I came up with a different updating model and so the prior model from 2019 and before When you started weighting in the data from the current season it tended to be Kind of regressive to the mean So you can kind of think of it regressing to what your expectation was preseason Um, kind of what I made the schedule adjustments for the for the current season It wasn't aggressive about changing an opinion on a team. So for example, michigan this year That has gotten off to a real good start. So with the updating model that I developed last year What I found was like it was actually making Uh, pretty aggressive adjustments pretty aggressive changes on teams and in college football I think that's a really good thing chris Andrews is always talked about how you can follow momentum in college football Things change from year to year and and you want to get that early data and you want to move aggressively You'll get killed following momentum in the nfl because Salary cap regression of the mean is just such a powerful force in that league So I really do like the behavior of this new model Um, so in terms of percentage, uh, oh and what I do now like so I have the new model That's more aggressive and changing on teams. That's what I told you about in terms of wisconsin being about a four and a half point favorite in this game. That's the model that All the metrics have actually been better than the closing value of the market so far this year So I'm very pleased with that And what I've done with the parts of that old model is that I just I I also include them in the In the predictions are only and the data file that I give to members because I do think they they give Uh, interesting things, you know So and and that's part of what I talked about today in michigan at wisconsin Yeah, I was asking that because I've been grappling about myself and building out my own nfl numbers trying to decide okay, how much do I weight in 2021 versus preseason and I was looking at uh, the way things grind out for this week and I was curious, uh, the way it would work if I look back at what my preseason number said about the browns versus the vikings Because I like this deck quite a bit for week number four I want the vikings plus two against the browns this game opened But the vikings as one at point dogs It quickly moved to two and a half and now it's back to two So I want to get back in on this one before it moves more and take the vikings at plus two interestingly enough My preseason numbers if I don't adjust at all had uh, the vikings is 1.2 point favorites here And it's actually improved in favor of the vikings despite the fact they're one and two to open the year and it might be because Potentially sports books a bit high on the browns here. They played well in week one to get the chiefs You know, they lost but they played well week two Tarad Taylor was kind of shredding them before he got hurt then number in week three The defense played well, but a lot of that goes on the bears playing an attack in that game So I think they're good. The the browns are 13th my power rankings right now But minnesota playing really well offensively they rank fifth and overall adjusted offensive efficiency just based on the 2021 data They're a second in passing efficiency They moved the ball well this year and They just haven't always had the wins to show for it. They lost the bangles in overtime Lost the cardinals on a missed chip shot field goal We know the cardinals are good based on what they've done the first three games At least we think we do and the bangles defense hasn't been too bad So my numbers have moved from the the vikings minus 1.2 to the vikings minus 2.4 Instead i'm getting two points on the vikings for this game So that could put me on the money line a plus one 14 But I think this should be a pretty tight game and pretty back and forth game So I do want the points here with the vikings plus two Excited to watch it play out. So I'll think the vikings plus two but ed What are your numbers saying here because I feel like a bit strange being like I like the browns And so it feels weird to be against them. I just don't know what i'm missing in this one Yeah, I mean Cleveland was a team that I kind of thought was overrated heading into the season I'm rapidly changing that opinion of this team. I think they do deserve it and You know, I think I think my model had him by like 10 last week against Chicago Uh, they happened by just about a half point in this game So certainly my model size was what you were saying here And then I also wanted to point out that dr. Ergiger was on my show last week and One of the things he said about pff grades is that Kirk Cousins Was playing better than their own two record suggested that clearly played out again in that game against seattle So I think all those things are pointing in in in the same direction for you Yeah, and I think that cleveland is pretty similar to seattle like they're They can score some points for sure bit flawed at times defensively So very similar match of minnesota they get him at home here I don't wait home field a lot. So I was kind of surprised to see that The vikings were undervalued at home. That doesn't happen super. It happened to alice last week, but like It's been mostly on uh, routine. So I'm surprised to see minnesota Getting a good luck here, but I'll take the vikings plus two here against the browns That is something we have for the college football version of this week's covering the spread But back with more nfl tomorrow with andy molotov breaking out of sarah pets for week number four And the biggest games across the board andy is in minnesota So I'll have to get his thoughts on uh, the vikings versus the browns as well Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread because of that to get that podcast right as it goes live Big thank you to ryan the crystal as well find him on twitter at ryan underscore mccrystal and check out his work Over at sharp football analysis ed. What is going on for you this week over at the power rank? I'm ryan my email newsletter. You can check that out at the power rank dot com and uh members of the power rank have access to all of my best predictions and uh You know it was interesting jim like last week I I had some problems with my code and I was just sitting there looking at raw success rates and I nearly pulled my hair out because there was a lack of adjustments And especially in college football. It's so hard to put that into context right now Um, even in the nfl the the adjustments have been pretty big so i'm a very happy man, uh being able to look at the adjusted numbers and uh seeing what they say Uh about games like clemson versus boston college So members have access to all of that you can check out You can check that out at the power rank dot net as a URL That'll take you to a place on my site where you can learn more about becoming a member Perfect the power rank dot net to get those numbers find add on twitter at the power rank. I'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n and es you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to ever for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across week five of college football We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get you set for the nfl side of things This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys? This is jordan spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel