 Until we get above the 200-day moving average and start building above the 200-day moving average, you can only speculate when that bottom is going to fall. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Weekend Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is safe. First and foremost, before we even get started and talk about the markets, very, very aggressive week last week, one of the better actions I can remember in a very long time, long, short, especially short and then long. But number one, I want to send, and I think all of us all of us can speak to this, I want to send our prayers and best thoughts to all the citizens of the Ukraine, right? You know, it's just tragic what's going on here, you know, without debating the whole merit of good versus evil or bad versus good or somehow there's still innocent lives involved. And unfortunately, somebody's sitting there right now, you know, minding their own business and hoping to God they stay safe and their lives are in jeopardy. So before you talk about how good or bad your week was of trading, look at the big picture, people are losing their lives and there's absolutely no coming back from that. So, you know, at this time, send your prayers, right? Send your good energy, send your good vibes to all the people in the Ukraine and hopefully this craziness, right? And that's exactly what it is. Kind of goes away sooner than later, right? Because again, at the end of the day, it's all about life and death. And if we only have one life to live, nobody should be ever in danger, just kind of waking up in the morning. So, hopes and prayers to everybody in the Ukraine. So, let's talk about the tape. You know, if you've been watching this video, you know, we've been, you know, we've been sell bias this market for two, you know, two months, you know, two months since the 200 day moving average has gone down. And if you guys remember, all these events, all the speculation of Putin invading the Ukraine was just speculation. And a lot of people, including myself, I'll be honest with you, and I've said it a number of times, I actually didn't believe it was going to happen just because there was so much grandstanding. And I think that's what it was. You know, this guy was basically making statements. So I was, yeah, I'll make an announcement if I feel like it, you know, on Thursday, if we want to, it just felt like a lot of measuring egos, like this dude was like bored out of COVID, but it actually played out. And the one thing that we didn't expect was the reaction of what happened later, right? So we saw that big reaction, obviously, the market was selling off a month before this even came into play. But once the headlines started kicking in, that's when the nervousness came in. And I said it for weeks and weeks and weeks, I felt like it was very orderly. Most of the down days, even if you had down days, five, six, 700 points was was very organic. That's the best way of saying it. And slowly, but surely, we got to, you know, we got to about Wednesday, right? And we had that big gap down and you had that big macro breakdown in the cues. And you saw that big move on Tesla and the video and everything else. And I finally started to turn around, I go, well, you know, maybe you could finally start calling this a little bit of a panic, you know, I don't want to call it a crash, but you know, that started to echo. And then finally, you had that news break over the night overnight, that Russia actually attacked, right? They started bombing, they started with the missiles and all that stuff. And the Dow went down 800 points very, very quickly. And the Nasdaq was down 300, 400 points very, very quickly. If all of us who were short overnight, you know, had them in the video and had the Tesla and blah, blah, blah, blah, big moves down, right? It had nothing to do with the big moves down. And then I tweeted something that I think a lot of people gave me too much credit for. I tweeted something out. If you go on my Twitter page, I tweeted something out and I said, if I'm paraphrasing, I just don't remember the tweet. And I said, if the permables had any hope of a kind of a market reversal today, just to kind of throw the baby out with the bathwater scenario that any capitulation, I don't want to use the word bottom, but any capitulation move needs, it's kind of an event like this. It's almost like instead of sell the news, it's almost like buy the news. And that's the day the Nasdaq went from down 400 to being up 500 or 450 points. And a lot of people said, great call. It wasn't a great call. You think I knew, right? If I knew, I would have loaded up on the bottom. It was something that I, 1% shot, I thought it could happen. It was a pure shot in the dark. It's like the same percentages of throwing a Hail Mary. Maybe for the 1% that it's going to hit. So I didn't really believe 99% of what I thought was actually go green. Sometimes you get lucky. And that day we had a really, really aggressive reversal. And it was one of those days on Thursday going into the Friday session that literally the strategy was, and we were laughing about it in the webinar, I literally said, forget about supply. Just buy anything that goes green, literally anything that goes green. And that was the 1% time in your career that when we reversed that you could have literally bought stocks, go red to green, completely brainless, completely even not even thinking about it. And that's when we had this really, really big reversal on Thursday's session. Obviously, it spilled into Friday. But believe me, for all you guys who are talking about great call, it was a pure shot in the dark, but there was nothing behind it. Believe me, I'm an idiot like everybody else. I'm just the one that just admits it and people kind of try to still believe that they're smart, that they know that actually is going to happen. But hey, it is what it is, right? It looks good on paper. And the question was, well, now what happens, right? And you know, how come the market reversed, right? And the one thing that I've always maintained, and if you go back to history, you kind of, you see the documentation of the world, the market and the financial world learns to live with, I don't want to use the word disasters, but they learn to eventually live with bad news. Let's call it that, right? If you go back to, you know, 2008 in the middle of the mortgage crisis, entering 2009, slowly but surely, although the market was terrible, right? People are losing their jobs, losing their homes, companies going out of business, although the market was terrible, you started slowly but surely towards the end of, towards the end of eight, the start of nine, slowly but surely the volatility started shrinking little by little, right? A little by little. And eventually, we had the generational bottom in 2009 that we rallied for the next 12 years, 13 years. So people started living and the market, financial markets started living with the reality, okay? And eventually we started rallying even though in the middle of 2009, people still lost their homes, people still lost their jobs, people still didn't recover from the financial crisis and institutions did exactly the same thing, but the market started learning to live with bad news, right? If you look at the March 20 lows, right, of the pandemic, right? This was a global pandemic, right? Businesses were shut down. People were getting sick. People were dying. We didn't know what was going on. We didn't know what our future was going to hold, but eventually a month later, the markets started to deal with bad news. And the reason why the market, at least one of the reasons why the market started bouncing on the physical go-ahead green light invasion of Russia into the Ukraine is the financial markets started realizing, well, now this is a part of our lives, right? It's not going away. Just the way the pandemic wasn't going away in April 2020, the markets realized come Thursday, well, this is now a part of our lives. So now we're going to have to live with this and this fluid motion headline society for the next X amount of weeks, X amount of months and who knows, maybe X amount of years, we don't know how far this is going to stretch. So slowly but surely the market started dealing with it and accepted it. And that's kind of one of the deals that the markets to a lot of people when you're bent over on the wrong side of the tape, people start talking about, well, it doesn't make sense. How can the markets start going down now, start going up now? Now there's physical casualties. There's an invasion. Yeah, this is the reality. This is what the market does. It's almost buys the bad headline when there's confirmation that this is part of our lives and it's going to be part of our lives, at least in the short term, going forward. The question is, well, what happens next? Now, guys, let's take a trip back. When you go back and again, remember, we're underneath the 200-day moving average. Nothing bullish for the long-term happens underneath the 200-day moving average. We always maintain the stance and you kind of see it on the day-to-day trading that, yes, you will definitely have moves to the upside, maybe multiple days to the upside. But the overall theme is still to the downside because again, we are below the 200-day moving average. And that's the constant reminder that it's not risk on, it's risk, but control your risk, especially on the intraday ranks. And if you look at the bottom, that people deem the bottom on January the 24th, which later this week got broken for that, really, really aggressive move down, which was awesome, which was really, really awesome if you were positioned that way. But the point was a lot of people turn around on January 24th and said, that's it. That's the capitulation bottom. And we actually did have a three-four-day run back into the 200-day moving average and it got stuffed, rejected. Then we had another little run back into the 200-day moving average and then we got rejected. So people are turning around. You could see it. You could totally see it just because if you go on social media, you'll get a little bit of a pulse of what the retail public is seeing. They say, well, Thursday was the bottom. That was the bottom. How could it not be the bottom? That was the bottom. We'll ask the people on January the 24th if that was the bottom. Again, until we get above the 200-day moving average and start building above the 200-day moving average, you can only speculate when that bottom is going to be put in. That bottom could have easily been put in on Thursday. But maybe that bottom will be eventually put in a Thursday of 2023. We don't know. Until we get above this whole supply zone, stop chopping down the trees on all these supply zones. You can only guess when that bottom is going to come. Eventually, because the market has shown us over the last 100, 150 years, eventually the market will go high. That's kind of the mantra of the market. No matter how the bad news is, eventually it's going to shake off the bad news, whether it's war, pandemic, or financial crisis. Eventually it will be at the high of the day, but it won't be that high of the day tomorrow. And that's the most important part is where we're trying to prepare for tomorrow. If you are an investor or you're looking to put on longer term risk, again, the theory is, well, I could buy stocks anywhere. Eventually they'll go higher. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. All depends on what stock you want to trade. But why speculate underneath the 200-day moving average? If you believe, again, I'm just using an example. If you believe, for example, that Amazon will be back at, say, $4,000 a share, well, why not? If you think it's going to get the 4,000, right? Why not buy the stock above the 200-day moving average and give yourself a fighting chance without losing sleep every single night that it's been going up and down 300, 400 points? Again, I love Amazon. Again, I do believe the stock will be at $4,000, $5,000 one day. But again, it's not going to be there tomorrow. And that's the most important part. And if you are fighting volatility and you want to kind of avoid sleepless nights. And again, I'm using just Amazon as an example. Every stock, no matter what stock it is for it to finally break out of a downward bias and start accumulating higher prices, everything, everything needs to be above the 200-day moving average. The question is, and then the question always remains, and people ask me all the time, well, what's the difference where I buy now? 10 years from now it's going to go higher. You might think so. You might believe so. But anything could happen next week. Anything could happen 30 weeks from now. You can't rely on what happens in 10 years if we can't control what happens in 10 minutes. And that's the most important part. And for any stock technically to go higher, it needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average. And any market that needs to go higher or wants to go higher has to do the same. And where we are right now is kind of where we were going back to January 31st, where we reclaimed the 10-day moving average there. And we reclaimed the 10-day moving average on Friday. And the question is, how high can we go? Can we get one more day of upward buy? Sure. I wouldn't be shocked if we get back up to this area here. Maybe another seven points on the queues. Maybe two, three more days of buying. But the question is, what happens when they get back to the intermediate supply of the 20-day supply? And you can see here every single time it gets to 20-day supply, it gets rejected as well. So I think in this type of market, you want it like going into Monday, you kind of want to prepare for the upside. Like I have some names I'm definitely watching to the upside. But look, as long as we stay on the 200-day moving average, we've been pretty constant with this opinion for the last couple of months until we gain control. Everything is basically cash flow. Trading to the upside. To the downside, there's macro levels. Once they confirm, they get destroyed. Everything that got destroyed this weekend, they broke macro. NVIDIA destroyed. Amazon destroyed. Amazon went down 350 points, which is an amazing move. Big shout out to my man, Andrew Quirk, individually, who held that shift to 300 points. Phenomenal, phenomenal move. But not very many people could do that. But he did. Congratulations there. Tesla got absolutely manhandled this week. And a lot of names did exactly the same thing. But now we are above the 10-day moving average. Our job right now is to identify the stocks that do have a little bit of room. Because again, if you go through charts this weekend, you just see a lot of wounded warriors, man, trying to get there, trying to just stand up just to get a little bit more upside before the next supply zone. And our job is to find those names who potentially have some more room back to the upside. So if you look, for example, a name like AMD, listen, if we have one more day of rallying, could AMD take out this channel here and give you a nice move? Sure, not bad. You had Square, who gave you a pretty good pop on earnings on Monday. Is there room to $26, $27 if the market gives you one more day? Yeah, sure. I think the value in a name like Square, you want to buy it into a dip into rising 60-minute support. And if it goes right to green and takes out the previous channels, high, maybe you get a move to $26, $27. Those are the type of names you definitely want to watch. Even a name like Amazon, who I think maybe has one more day up. And you can see the 60-minute ban was starting to get slowly but surely into supply. If you look at the 10-day moving average, yeah, maybe this thing does have another 30, 35 points. Usually, you go into a trade on Amazon and say, yeah, I'm not selling it for more than 50, 100 points. Yeah, we're not in that market, right? We're not in that market, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 points. That's a good move, especially look at the move from Friday's low. I mean, that's a good move. So that's our challenge going into, you know, that's our challenge going into Monday's session. There's a lot of names more than not. They're headed into supply or at supply right now that I have no interest in looking at because I know deep in my mind, the market could turn on a dime whether we have one or two more days of upside bias. I do know for the big picture, we still need to get above the 200-day moving average. So I am, you know, I am a little, I don't need to word bullish. I am 51.49. Let's use that. I'm 51.49, maybe 52.48. Buy bias going into Monday's session, but I know I'm very, very conscious. If I cease anything, start turning back and they start getting, you know, rejected at the 10, 20, whatever moving average and start reversing back down, I'm not naive. I know the big picture where we are. And I think that area of the market could start rolling over, whether it's tomorrow, excuse me, whether it's Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, eventually these stocks hit supply and if they can't confirm the bigger channels, that's when we're going to start turning around and revisiting back to lower levels the same way it happened on the January 24th lows. We decided to go back down. And now the question is, is this 318 eventually going to be the next quote unquote generational bottom or is this something that we're going to revisit a very, very short term, all right, to be determined. So guys, have a great, great weekend. I hope everybody stays safe. Again, say a prayer, please for the innocent victims and casualties and the families and all that good stuff for people who are sitting at home right now in the Ukraine, hoping to God just to see another day. Guys, God bless, stay safe, all the best, and I'll see you on the field on Monday.