 The biggest piece of advice I would give myself, you know, that the person who's been trading almost 23 years versus the person who literally started trading in the end of 1990s. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access a trader.com. Weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. First and foremost, I want to wish everybody a very merry Christmas. I wish everybody all the best health, most important happiness and health and health and health and health. Last time that hasn't been a video in a week. If you guys remember last week, my son came down with COVID on Wednesday. So naturally my wife, my daughter and myself, we got COVID tests on Thursday came out negative and slowly but surely by Saturday, I was recording the video on you. If you watch last weekend's video, you can hear me say, I just can't shake whatever I have. And about two hours later, it was like nothing I've ever felt in my life. And yada, yada, yada, my wife, myself and my son, we all had COVID. My daughter somehow came unscabed. She's been in literally isolated in her room for about a week now. This is day six for me. The one myth and the one myth that they, you know, they keep on reiterating the narrative of, you know, if you're vaccinated, you know, you're protected from this stuff. And I tell you, I'm double vaccinated on everybody. Everybody's double vaccinated in my house. And my wife even has the booster shot. Oh, yeah, you can get it. Okay, you can get it. And it's, it's pretty rough. Like I said, I've never experienced anything like it. The night chills that go into fever that the teeth chatter into the point that I felt like my teeth were going to fall out. The most insane thing I've ever, I've ever encountered. So if you've never gotten this thing and they're telling you it's it's completely safe, don't worry, you're vaccinated. Trust me, you're not. Okay, the question is how severe of a case are you going to have? And that's why, you know, again, and I truly believe anybody that I've spoken to that got COVID before they got vaccinated and then they got it again after they vaccinated from what I understand from just talking to 10, 12 people, dozens of people. The second experience, whether you already got COVID or not, it was a lot lighter. And one guy even said it's 100 times worse on vaccinated. So whether you decide to get the vaccine or don't get the vaccine, just understand we all going to get it. Okay, don't let the government tell you or anybody tell you that you're safe from this stuff. You know, my whole family's double vaccinated, my wife has the booster. My wife is still a day and a half behind where I am. She's still all messed up. I'm about 70% two nights in a row. Now, no, no fever, no chills. I'm super tired. I'm ridiculously fatigued. My throat hurts, but I'm at least I'm functional now and I'm able to speak, which is good. And hopefully by Monday, I will be as close as possible to normal. For the trading weeks and I should be good to go. The funny thing is I only missed Monday's session, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I traded basically to about lunchtime and then I was just dead. It's like, you know, you just hit you and you completely dead. But at least I was functional. And hopefully the worst is behind me. My son feels close to where he is right now. Still very, very fatigued. He's on day 10, right? And my wife is still like on day four. So we're still a little screwed up. And unfortunately, the saddest part about this whole thing is today is Christmas Eve. My daughter is the only one who's not vaccinated as it doesn't have cover, which is a good thing. But we're going to be celebrating Christmas dinner on Zoom from all parts of the house. How sad is that? And that and my heart goes out to my daughter because it's just, you know, she's still 12, but she's still, you know, she's still not almost like euphoric Santa Claus phase. So that's that's the saddest part about the whole thing. So hopefully you guys are hanging in there from from what I understand. There's like 18,000 cases in New Jersey. This omicron, omicron, whatever the hell it's called is this thing is no joke. Everybody got it. Just stay safe, guys, drink a lot of fluids, zinc, vitamin C, try to get as much fresh air as possible. And then God will take care of the rest. So let's talk about the tape last Saturday. If you just felt like such a long time ago, I recorded a video. But the last Saturday, we were talking about the first close below the 50 day moving average just to show you how, how quickly things change in the markets, how fluid the situation is. You know, we had a pretty aggressive move down from the 50 day moving average and we tested the bottom this rising support. That was a pretty fantastic move. You had a really two, three days worth of really aggressive selling. But this is why, again, this is why we use technical analysis and not have our emotional opinions think what's going to happen. Next, like I always say, I don't know what's going to happen next. I only go by what the data tells us. And the data has told us once we were to lose the 50 day moving average, we were going to go into this next rising support in which we did successfully test. And what happened next was what everybody was hoping for, this whole Santa Claus rally. And the one thing before you get a Santa Claus rally, you do get a Deccat bounce. And we always talk about Deccat bounces initially is that's what they are. There's no guarantees we're ever going to reclaim supply. And to the bull's credit, we reclaimed, we reclaimed supply, which started out as a Deccat balance day one went to day two. And that day two bounce not only reclaimed the five day moving average, but reclaimed the 50 day moving average as well. And for the next several days, we had some pretty big runs. And that felt really good. I think a lot of people, especially newer traders going through this holiday season with all the things we have to go mentally. I think it was almost like a mental relief for a lot of new traders. Just I think a lot of traders in general, just to have that feel good feeling going into the holidays, no matter what's going on in your world. It's a lot mentally easier to digest a strong market than it is a weak market because a weak market only emphasizes kind of everything's subconsciously what's going on in your life with COVID, with the economy, with this, that, the third. So it was really a good field story. Going into the last two, three days of the week, the market did incredibly well. You had some really big breakouts. Apple did very, very well. Huge run. AMD had a really, really big three day run and Tesla, right? And Tesla. So if you guys have been following kind of this broadcast, you know, Tesla has been in the downward buys. And this is how important technical, again, technical analysis is. Once Tesla lost the 50 day moving average, we talked about a landing. If you got to kind of go back into the previous week's video, you kind of talk, we talked about the measure potential of getting to that 880 level of Tesla for a measure potential soft landing spot. That's exactly what happened. We got down all the way down to this 886 level. And then slowly, but surely you started seeing tweets come across and financial news outlets kind of starting to report that, hey, maybe Elon met the requirements for his tax bill. And you saw him talk about he sold roughly what I think it was 11 billion of $15 billion worth of stock, whatever the case may be, tremendous amount of money, tremendous amount of money. And slowly, but surely people started to kind of circulate this, disseminating the news, made some outlets and little by little, Tesla, technically, number one, put in this rising support. They held it and they started moving higher. But then you started hearing the murmurs. Hey, by the way, this guy might be done. And that's kind of if you're a Tesla trader, not just test, trade Tesla from time to time. If you're a Tesla trader, and again, if you're joining this broadcast for the first time, this is by far my favorite stock. There's nothing in my career. I'm doing this. I'm going on my 23rd year. Tesla ranking from the top five. OK, it's Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, Tesla, OK, Tesla, I think. So it's a phenomenal stock. And slowly, but surely, you started hearing these rumors come about. And this was on the 21st. Again, I apologize, I haven't recorded a video in the whole week. And you started hearing, I go, look, there's some rumors coming on that Elon is done selling. Who the hell knows? Right? You know, you hear all these rumors all the time and market chatter and whatever the case might be. And I said, look, there's an aggressive area, right? There's an aggressive area at 913 and needs to build the initial 919 push. And then it's starting to get into a little macro area. Any build over 924 can see 935. And and that was the dynamic shift of Tesla from December the 21st, all the way to kind of what we saw. And Tesla started making a pretty big move here. And if you go by, if you go by the charts, and again, this is not obvious to a lot of people, but this is what we talk about. You hear me talk about sneaky channels, sneaky pivots. That's what we're talking about. This whole 913 area, right? This was the 913 channel that got confirmed. This was the 924 channel that got confirmed and it traded initially right to the 935 area, which at that point was right over here, which is the 10 day moving average with a short term sentiment. And slowly, but surely it started to pick up and people started connecting the dots and yada, yada, yada. Tesla went on a phenomenal, phenomenal run and congratulations for all you guys who kept the runner from that 913 area. And the cool part of what we saw about Tesla for the whole week was it not only reclaimed the five, the 10, the 20 day moving average. On Friday session, it reclaimed the 50 day moving average, which is super duper bullish. Look, do I think the stock probably sees this 1089, 1116 area? Probably does. Stock really needs a little bit of a rest, but phenomenal move. Absolute phenomenal trader to the downside, to the upside and everything in between. But again, there is no randomness in technical analysis. And that's the one thing I keep on reiterating the point. Forget about, you know, Instagram and the cars and the planes and the watches and all that nonsense that comes with social media. Trust the charts, guys. Trust the charts. The biggest piece of advice I would give myself, you know, that the person who's been trading almost 23 years versus the person who literally started trading in the end of 1998, the greatest advice that I think I can share with any new trader is trust the charts, love technical analysis, fall in love with it. I don't care if you're trading the small cap market, the big cap, whatever your drug of choice is, the charts are not going to lie. It's going to give you enough data that you can collect and make an educational choice, an educational play instead of some guy that you follow, that you revere on social media that's hiding behind some random avatar, talking about, yo, man, this is the next one to go. Your career is at zero. OK, I promise you, you don't know it yet. But if that is your approach and you're jumping on every headline, you're jumping on every this is the next one to go. And your go to processes, watching stocks, the hot stock of the market, pre-market, I give you my word, you know, you're a walking corpse. You don't know it yet. OK, you don't know it yet. But I promise you your career is is going to be very, very challenged. If you fall in love with the charts, I give you my word. If you fall in love with the charts and I don't care how you trade, if you fall in love with the charts, you will be shocked where you are in the next three to five years. I really, really stand behind that. I think the most purest way of trading and finding your success story and your success journey is not by material things because some guy you revere is shown on Instagram, right? The finished product and all the other quote, unquote, the rental product. But it's right in your research. It's right in your data collection. And once you start really putting together the pieces. And again, you know, technical analysis, a lot of people believe it's subjective. It's really not. OK, the stocks just don't stop randomly in the air. They stop in channels. And you can see here, they stop perfectly in channels and they get initially rejected into channels. And once you figure all that up and you really embrace them, you have that aha moment, your career is going to take off. OK, your career is going to really start to accelerate. And it's all because of the technical analysis right before you. Now, again, there's a big difference between investing and trading. It's like the biggest difference between a zebra and a horse. They kind of look like each other, but not really. So investors, you're in your own lane. If you're an investor and you're watching this channel, you're probably getting no value out of it because we're trading literally day to day. That's how fluid the market is. This is how aggressive, how aggressive the environment is. If you're a trader, I listen, I love Apple. I think it goes higher. I love Tesla. I think it goes higher. I think I love the Amazon and I love and I love Microsoft and I love everything, right? But I might not go higher the day that you want it to go higher. And that's the difference between trading and investing. Do I believe Amazon goes to 5,000 in the next five years? Absolutely. Do I believe Amazon is going to go to 5,000 tomorrow? Probably not, right? Just because of common sense. So if you are a trader, obviously we are a platform that is talking to you via the day to day activity. One day could be very aggressively long. One day could be very, very aggressively short. And one day could be very, very aggressively passive. And that is your foundation, your building, your subconscious way of being an adult to kind of buy time for you get this wide open channel, no matter how you're trading. That's where you're going to capitalize. So I believe if you are a trader, and this is the first two, three years of your journey, give yourself some time, right? Give yourself some time. Find the type of trader that you want to be. Not everything fits for everybody. Again, I trade pivots. I would say 90% of all my trades are probably the same 10, 12 stocks every single day. The whole Tesla's, Amazon's, Facebook's of the world's, the same names over and over and over again because that's my comfort zone. That's where I'm very familiar. I understand their tendencies. I understand their measure potential. They are byproducts of aggressive option flow and the options market, institutional money flow. That is my comfort zone. When you are a brand new trader, you don't know what your personality is. You don't know what you are. Do you want to trade small caps? You want to be an options trader? You want to trade futures, E-minis, Forex. You want to trade Bitcoin, NFT, whatever your lane is. Find that lane. Make sure it makes you happy. Make sure it makes you safe. Make sure it makes you put you in a situation that you're comfortable every single day because if you're not comfortable, how can you possibly adapt the idea that you can copy another trader, emulate another trader? My size 11 shoes might not fit your size nine and that's okay. And that's the greatest thing about this journey of ours. We can be in a situation that we find ourselves, right? And some traders, unfortunately, you get so caught up in the hype machine of social media trading the hot stock of the day, you'll never live to your potential because you're gonna burn out before because again, when you're trading retail stocks, you're gonna have retail results. Remember, just on a chessboard, right? You have the bishop, you have the knight, and then you have the king, the queen, right? You have the rook, and then you have the pawns. Retail represents the pawns. Institutional money is all in the back. And if you follow institutional money flow with a combination of what you're seeing via the charts, the technical analysis, I guarantee you, I guarantee you, if you trust, trust, trust, trust, trust, technical analysis, you will be shocked where you are in the next few years. So let's talk about it, right? So bullish close, you know, let bullish close on the market, big three, four day run, what happens next, right? That's the key, what happens next? If you missed the rally, if you caught the rally, if you got caught upside down in the rally, whatever the case may be, it's in the past, right? We don't live there anymore. The question is, what happens next? And now it's the time that you start looking at charts and you start looking at them at face value, because again, holiday time is kind of like what we saw during Thanksgiving, right? We had this massive sell-off because of Omicron, Omicron, what the hell it's called. And my question was, well, was it real, right? Was it real? If people were taking off and there was nobody around, was this sell-off real? And on the scoreboard, it said yes, but sentiment changed very, very quickly the next week. So going into this week, the question is, do we continue this Santa Claus rally and spill over into January, which is referred to the January effect, right? So if we could survive this week, can we spill over into realistically one of the more bullish scenarios in January, which everybody pretty much gets a piece of the pie. You have the small cap market running, you have the technology space running, you have fund managers putting money into play for the first quarter of the year. So is that going to be the case? And again, to be determined, but we have to prepare for that. And I always love companies that are coming off the bottom, especially after a nasty selling spree, nasty spelling time. And a lot of names have really, really big runs. Obviously Tesla is a name that looks great and it looks like it's gonna go higher. Obviously the stock has gone in the last three days from 880 to basically almost 1100, okay? The value for me on Tesla is not into strength, is into weakness. So if we get any type of weakness next week into Tesla, especially if we get back test into this rising 50 day moving average, I think a lot of bears will get trapped there and they will get really, really aggressive prices. We saw some really, really aggressive option bets. This past week into the options market, the key is do the bulls continue to buy the dip. And I believe they will for a little bit of time. So I think that's the value is, but you're gonna notice there's me a lot of names that didn't break out. For all the apples that broke out, for all the names like Microsoft that broke out, even AMD had a really aggressive push and we'll talk about the pivots there in a second. There's a lot of names that still haven't really gone out of their channels. And if you look at names, for example, like Netflix, it's still below supply. If you look at Amazon, it's still way below supply, right? If you look at a name like Square, way below supply. As a matter of fact, it's still in a dead, dead downtrend, right? Big moves down, they still can't get out of. So our job right now is to try to find names, right? Try to find names that are coming out of channels. So let me give you guys some names that I'm watching going into this week. I don't want the names that already had the big runs, right, those are the ones, that's the scenario we talk about. Like you don't want to jump out of the 10th floor window. If you're going to lose money, lose money from jumping out of the first floor that you can have a couple of bumps and bruises, a little bit of scrapes, you jump out of the 10th floor window. Like for example, if your first trade on Tesla is Monday, right? After a move from 880 to nearly 1100, if your first trade on Tesla is literally on Monday, you're doing it wrong. I guarantee you, you're doing it wrong. You're jumping out of the 10th floor, right? If I'm going to lose money, I'm going to lose money down here. I'm going to lose money down here. The last thing you want to do is make this your first priority of Monday talking about it's going to the moon. It might, right? It might, but you're really exposing yourself from all about risk and not enough reward. Because if you look at supply, right? You have 1089, so you have another 20 points of upside, but you have a lot of room of downside as well. So be careful of the names that are already moved higher. But let me give you guys some names that I like. That I like that if they do confirm it, again, that's a big if, but if they do confirm can make pretty big moves to the upside if the market continues higher. Look at a name like UPST. UPST had this phenomenal, phenomenal run throughout the year and then just got absolutely massacred with the whole growth story, right? And they sold anything to do with growth and the stock got absolutely murdered. But a lot of people have very short memories and they remember this. And so there's obviously a major potential in this thing. You guys see this little flag here on the 10 day. You notice how it keeps on getting rejected with the 10 day moving average. If UPST could finally get above this 10 day moving average and start building, there's 20 points in this thing into the next supply zone. So this is definitely a name I want to watch. Even a name for example, even a name for example, like TTD, right? Another, you know, another side of the stock, monster, monster run, the stock came all the way back in first close above daily supply. If TTD starts confirming, hey, there's 20 points to the upside there as well. So we're looking for names that I got beat up that are coming off the bottom channels. They're either about to confirm supply or closed. In this case, first close above supply. If this thing starts building higher, again, there's 20 points in the trade as well. Even Roku, look at Roku, right? So Roku had this really weird year, right? Roku had a monster, monster run and then a monster, monster sell off. They blew up on earnings and everything in between and just terrible, right? Absolutely terrible. But again, it's not what the stock has done. It's putting yourself in a situation, taking what the market right now is giving you and taking the formation of bottom channels that were once really, really aggressive runners that could potentially wake up as well. And you can see here, right? So Roku had this big move off the bottom, excuse me, had this big move off the bottom, had a really aggressive 40% upside case. I forgot who it was. I think it was maybe by UBS and never sold off, right? Never sold off and now it's just flagging. So if Roku can just wake up off the bottom channel here, again, this is the first floor. If Roku could wake up off the bottom channel, maybe this thing goes up for another 20, 30 points. A lot of room there as well. Let me give you guys one more. Even this Trump's back, you guys remember this Trump's back? This thing is kind of going sideways here. Never really sold off, okay? And that's kind of a good thing. If the stock, if you're watching the stock and it never sold off and it's just kind of going sideways and you can see here, it's hugging the 50 day moving average in the process and the last four days is putting in one, two, three, four days in a row of higher highs and higher lows. If this DWAC can just get above this little channel here, I mean, this thing has tendencies gone, big, big runs. And if this thing could wake up above this channel here, maybe this thing could wake up and get right back into the sixties. Again, some names where we're watching, guys, do your research. It's gonna be all on the bottom of the channel. So let's talk about Friday's Pivots. Again, monster move on all week on Tesla. Again, I apologize, guys, for not recording a video this whole week, but COVID kicked my ass very, very aggressively. So let's talk about, let's talk about congratulations runners on Pivots. You can see these are all Pivots throughout the week, Apple and Nuts. Sienna, Tullo, Microsoft broke out huge this week. NVIDIA had a nice run this week. Let's get to Friday. Let's get to, yeah, so, yeah. So here's what we were looking for. Here's what we were looking for this, for Friday, continuation from obviously the whole weeks of strength. Obviously we had, we were watching NVIDIA and Tesla and all these things and Apple and Microsoft and AMD. And those are the names that really confirmed very, very aggressively. And let's talk about it. So here's where we talk about potential bounce plays, guys. For experienced traders, 998, 1001 potential bounce area. Normally you wouldn't have such a big area, but given the volatility that's rising support and all Tesla did from Friday. And this is again, how specific technical analysis is. Look at the low of the day from Friday, guys, right? Look at the low of the day from Friday, 997.56. Sellers got trapped on this whole rising 60-minute support. Now again, did I think the stock was gonna go up 60 points? Come on, how can you possibly think that? But it is Tesla and if the guy's finished selling, if he's not selling, the people have spoken, baby. This thing is an absolute rocket launcher. Went to almost 1,100. AMD went absolutely nuts, 144, 75, 145, needs to build. Here's AMD, right? It took out the 144, 75, 145, went to 149. Big move there on AMD. Let's see here. Here's the initial pivot on Apple on Wednesday, right? One's the Apple pivoted above 173.50. Here's a new pivot from yesterday's session, needs to build this 176 area. Apple, you know, nice close here, pretty much at the highs, almost went to 177. So here's the initial pivot here at 173.50 on, excuse me, on Tuesday's session. So nice move there. It looks higher. They were coming for a bunch of 180 calls on Apple. Nvidia had a really nice move on Wednesday as well. Went to all the way up to 90, you know, 97 area. It stalled out a little bit on Friday, 99. As you can see here, it originally took out the 91.20. Then Friday, 99 could see 304, only traded up to $300 and like 56 cents and got rejected. Strong breakout of Microsoft. Again, the previous day, 3.24. Now it needs 3.34 to confirm. Here was Microsoft, right here was Microsoft. So it took out the 3.28, took out the 3.34, traded up to 3.36, still looks higher. From here, Tesla obviously take on the way up. Take on the way up. Google had a monster move. 29.31 needs to build on Google. Here was Google, and I'm sorry, again, I'm getting a little wind that I'm gonna cut this off in a second here. Here was the 3.31. Put up a bit, basically about 35 point candle on Google and AMD new highs, oops, sorry, AMD new highs, Boeing 203 rejected twice, needs to build, Boeing went about 205, still looks higher. Microsoft going higher, Google needs to hire, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I kind of like, guys, watch Facebook for this week. I kind of like this thing. This thing starts building above this 3.36 channel, starts confirming Friday should go higher. So I'll be back, hopefully full storm on Monday for all you guys who are going through COVID or feeling the symptoms, guys, just stay strong, drink a lot of water, get a lot of fresh air, don't let it settle in your lungs, fight it, be proactive. I mean, I'm telling you, this is not the flu, okay? This is not the flu. I'm double vaccinated, everybody's vaccinated in my house. This thing kicked my ass for like three, four days. This is day six for me, slowly but surely getting better and with God's help, we will all get through it together. Guys, God bless. I wanna wish everybody once again a Merry Christmas and with God's help, we will all see each other on Monday. Take care, guys, have a great day.