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Published on Jun 30, 2016
Speaker: Joshua Felman, International Monetary Fund http://macrofinance.nipfp.org.in/semi... In a famous paper, Blanchard and Leigh (2013) discovered that there was a strong link between fiscal consolidation projected in Spring 2010 and subsequent growth forecast errors. They interpreted this link as indicating that forecasters had used multipliers that were far too low. The speaker discusses a paper that argues that this interpretation was incorrect. The real problem was that forecasters failed to foresee the euro area crisis.