 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Monday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time and we got markets in the green to kick things off extending higher yet again. You're looking at an S&P right now positive by half a percent trading up almost 19 points at 4104. NASDAQ 100 we're up 410th percent right now you get the Dow trading up about a quarter percent up 83 points at 32,348 in the Russell just under 1900 Russell up by nine points at 1899 Bitcoin quite a bit off of the lows we had last week look at that acceleration Friday you accelerate from about 19,000 and change up to over 21,000 this morning we're over 22,000 on Bitcoin up a thousand bucks at 22,350 Ethereum catching a bid now check it out Bitcoin you're up 4.7% Ethereum you're only at 1.3% 1732 for Ethereum crude's catching a bid yet again so much for 81 20 we're back pushing 89 bucks in the price of crude this morning let's take a look at that crude on a daily basis interesting when you go back to the highs of last October 8541 we just dipped below that level we get back above that level 8861 right now quite an acceleration over the last few days of crude back to a 15 minute chart we jumped to gold we got some currency action this morning you got gold spike into 1745 we back off a bit to 1741 we got currency action almost every day right now going on silver check out that acceleration pushing almost $20 we were at 1775 last week you're up by 91 pennies at 1967 that's almost a 5% pop in silver versus barely a 1% pop in gold right now and you jump to notes and bonds we got a little bit of higher price and lower yield but you're still talking about a 10-year yield 3.29% 3.29% man wild stuff as we come into a pretty important week for CPI and guess what next week's a Fed meeting man and we'll we get it we get the action as it continues but CPI gonna be important one we'll jump into that in a moment and then curry we do we get us we get CPI tomorrow then we get PPI on Wednesday producer price index rate consumers producers consumers on Tuesday producers on Wednesday now producers are important but the producer price index does not always translate into consumer prices rising which is what matters when you talk about inflation most of the time PPI obviously a factor that should contribute to some degree which is why it's important but you see things the likes of Apple right comes out with their phone new phone last week same exact price well you got to guess that Apple's producer prices are elevated but what have they done they've absorbed those and the consumer prices of their phones are going to be the same a small illustration of sometimes how those don't translate all the way through we jump over to the VIX this morning pretty low volatility on Friday 2264 were elevated a bit I tell you to pay attention to that one folks because not often not often do you have markets up half a percent quarter percent third of a percent and meanwhile you got the VIX oppa solid 50 cents from where you were and realistically you're talking about pushing almost a dollar from where you closed out Friday's action elevated volatility even with a positive market be careful on the open when this happens folks anytime that the VIX is higher when you have the market trading higher there's other factors going on and I don't want to say usually but many times okay when you have a VIX elevated coming into the opening bell and you have markets in higher territory they can give it back like nothing man because with that market saying is hold on a second okay we're making pay people pay for the price of protection and premium because this market looks shaky market doesn't look shaky usually when you open up half a percent unless that's really not where supply may meet demand all right let's jump right into the inflation conversation man US inflation will guide Fed readying that's the headline over at Bloomberg next hike economic week ahead yeah as in US and let me read that one more time inflation will guide Fed readying next hike they're readying the next hike it's gonna guide them where they go when we get that inflation number now some of the numbers they're looking for man for all the conversation about getting ahead of the Fed and the Fed gonna pause things and and the likes of whatnot the government's report CPI this is talking about is expected to show an 8% increase in the overall consumer price index from the same month last year down from 8.5 percent in July I mean folks we got to get to 2% okay you're supposed to have a pretty quick pullback from 8.5 to what what people you hear the conversations I'm sure right oh it's gonna be easy to get not easy but people say it it's gonna be easy to get to 5% it's gonna be easy to get to maybe 4% but boy getting bad and getting from 4 to 3 to 2 is gonna be the tough one okay well folks it's not that easy right now to get to 5 or 4 because we're talking about from 8.5 to 8 over a month that's only half a percent well that means if it comes in as expected at 8% okay even if we a decrease 5.5% every single month okay you're talking about taking 10 months just to get to 3% at that rate I mean you get the point that's almost a year out we're still not at 2% right and it's supposed to be easier right now not sure that we're gonna take across the even half a percent dropping now you get to the core side of things though how about expected to climb what's going on man stripping out energy and food the CPI is forecast to climb 6.1 percent up from 5.9 percent the year in July now take a look at this chart folks okay and the black is the change in CPI over year the pink is the core okay and let me try and see if I can blow it up perfect I can't the black chart here pretty undeniable that it looks like we potentially have peaked right we come down from 9.1 to 8.5 now these are expected okay these are the expected numbers 2022 and I may sneeze here one second oh excuse me okay excuse me okay so we get 1982 excuse me I sneezed it got me all combobulated in March we had the highest print since 1982 okay talking about CPI and that's when we got the core number up to 6.5% okay now you've dropped to 6.2 6 5.9 5.9 they're expecting to go to 6.1 that's not supposed to happen man I mean you're talking about we're gonna be back at right where we were in April it's August prices that we're talking about here on the core level now energy obviously a huge factor in what's going on in the overall CPI which is why you see the rise especially in June when you got a 9.1 percent overall print okay that's gonna back down to 8.5 and potentially to 8 but the core number man you know we're gonna be dealing with some tough issues on crude and energy especially coming into the winter for natural gas for Europe in particular but this core is a big problem man you're taking our food and energy and we are gonna have a number that's expected to be the highest number year over year in the last three months so keep your eye on it man that number is out tomorrow and yeah the Fed's gonna be talking about whether they go 75 basis points they're gonna be meeting September 20th and 21st I think that's next Tuesday and Wednesday yes it is next Tuesday and Wednesday and we're gonna find out what all eyes are gonna be on that tomorrow man and I imagine today's gonna be a dicey one coming into that number because it's pretty remarkable that you're looking at a headline number that's expected to be 8% you're looking at a core number that's expected to rise we have a Fed that right now probability wise is baking in 75 basis points okay now we'll finish this conversation up man but we got the S&P sitting about 4100 we would just said 3,900 where those 200 points come from folks we'll be right back Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing in a creative transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC Vista Gold executing a strategy to create 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than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris' for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com welcome back we have the S&P's folks up about 20 points and I brought it up right now we were just pushing 3083 where did these 200 points come from folks I mean at first it was beginning a little bit of a relief rally but you're talking about excuse me you're talking about 5% from where we were on Wednesday morning Thursday and Friday as we come into a CPI number that's supposed to show rising core CPI as we come into a Fed meeting that's baking in a third 75 basis points hike and the chairman could not be stronger right now with the words and the rhetoric he's using to say that we are going to hike until we see substantial information that and data that we are sure that we are over the hump okay rising core CPI that's going to be now above six percent six percent again that's not what they're talking about folks so I don't know where the market comes to 4100 when you were just at 3883 we put this thing on a daily okay quite the sell-off from August 16th when you were pushing 43 27 you dived down to 3884 we're now coming right into the 50% if you're looking for the 618 talking about 50 points to the upside on the S&P's of where that bounce could potentially go now we got through the 3-1 the 3-8-2 and that 3-8-2 we are right in the big bar from August 26 folks okay we got into that bar on Friday and now you're at about a 50% of the pullback trading right now 4105 on those S&P's speaking of Fibonacci's folks if you head on over to the front page of TFNN we got our man Larry Pezzavento he is doing a live trading webinar coming up a week from tomorrow I believe let me get this yes Tuesday September 20th so one week from tomorrow Larry will be in there live trading five hour strokes 9 a.m. till 2 p.m. I think he's done four or five of these always an outstanding webinar there'll be a bunch of great participants in there as well we host these now at our discord which is a great interactive way to host these with the hosts and the subscribers and attendees Larry will be in there for five hours he'll be trading live he'll be going over his rhetoric there's no better way to do it than to watch it live folks you get a month of his Fibonacci newsletter that's a $97 value the total cost folks is $295 but immediately you gain a month of his newsletter and that starts immediately Larry puts out some outstanding comment commentary for Fibonacci 24-7 particularly over the weekend he puts out updates 24-7 folks which is why we say that but over the weekend he has a couple pretty in-depth reports I think he sent out one update yesterday four separate videos about five minute videos he talked about oil in one video he talked about the S&P the indices in one video he talked about grains if you're a grains trader in one of the videos not to mention going over charts of many different futures markets many different indices whether it's our indices or even over the globe talking about the DAX etc so you gain access to Fibonacci 24-7 right when you sign up for that and we give you a month past the date of the actual event so if you sign up right now you're basically getting five weeks plus of Fibonacci 24-7 as that approaches one week from tomorrow check it out the front page at TFNN folks all right let's jump around to what else we have going on and we're gonna talk a little bit of housing because I got three articles up here to talk about man where's US inflation heading you want to know follow the rent man shelter I we're all learning so much folks of all this data shelter one-third of the CPI did you know that I know that now only because you better know that man because CPI is driving everything right now and shelter is one-third of what goes into it but you start to think about it right what does a consumer spend their money on well geez rent or your mortgage as a big factor of everything going on in your life and we got rents and mortgages rising dramatically and that is showing no pause now mortgages okay showing pause but what's happening people can't buy a house right now rents are going up eventually that should all work itself out doesn't go like that forever man you can't have nobody wanting to buy a house because they can't afford it and rents to skyrocketing but we are in a specially interesting times right now folks we have a housing shortage of people of houses for people that need them at the same time as we have mortgage rates at least for what I know a pretty historic highs from my historic nature and that's many people in the market as well when you're talking about five and a half to six percent mortgages from where we've come over the last what 15 years almost at least now the good news is rental inflation may be close to topping out after advancing almost six percent the 12 months to July the bad news it's gonna take a while to settle back down to anything resembling pre coronavirus norms six percent okay if rent is persistent here with inflation okay now look at this we get us consumer prices renter shelter and we have average hourly earnings okay you have us consumer price index of rent shelter still dramatically on the rise here and look at this chart this chart goes back to 1991 folks you got to go back to all right we're dealing with factors that this economy is just not accustomed to dealing with at all let's see so the CPI out tomorrow expected to show core inflation that excludes it rising by 0.3 percent on the month that we just went over year-over-year that's gonna push 6.1 percent rents have always been important in measures of inflation due to their outside share in most also household budgets they compromise a little over 30% of the headline number in about 40% of the core number remarkable right you better know this if you're thinking about inflation and you thinking about the data and you're thinking about the Fed man during the pandemic as inflation has surged other smaller components like used vehicles recorded such unprecedented prices price increases that they to become major drivers of those measures so an attempt to get a better handle on the underlying inflation policymakers have increasingly turned to a trimmed mean or median indexes to get a sense of how broad based inflationary pressures really are you start playing with the data folks okay and you're gonna get yourself in trouble but ultimately they to end up being dominated by rent that's in part because so much bigger than any other component it's also because the cost of shelter tends to be one of the most persistent least volatile components which means it rarely if ever ends up getting filtered out you can't filter it out folks it's persistent it's not that volatile people sign in six month leases they're signing 12 month leases okay this is not like the cost of crew this is not like the cost of a used vehicle that is determined by how many cars are on the lot that month this isn't the cost of a new vehicle that's determined by how many chips you have to have the lines movement so you can produce brand new vehicles okay huge shipping numbers doing big things keep your eye on this one man you could go over and over and over I think I made the point for forecasters that puts a hefty premium on understanding the drivers of and likely trajectory of rent inflation you figure that one out man you'll know a lot about this market because not only that right if you figure out what's gonna happen with rent you're gonna have to figure out what's gonna happen on the real estate side how deep is the pull back gonna be is there gonna be a pullback it's just gonna be a slowing of rising prices for real estate there's a lot out there but when you talk about rents being 40% of the core CPI you talk about a number where people are signing leases over and over and over and it's persistent and it's really not that violent volatile because of the structures that people lock themselves into with contracts that is gonna be persistent folks and that is gonna take some time and the Fed's gonna have to deal with that so it's still until rents come down I mean what's that mean do we need a little bit of a housing pullback at least to get out of this maybe what they I mean is that what the chairman's thinking could he be he could be because that would really help if you brought down real estate prices that really push rents to a lower level that would have a dramatic effect and it's something that might play out we'll be right back for the open folk state you time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than ain't gold this 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experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks we get the S&P's up 23 points right now that's more than half a percent in the positive you see where we're sitting about a 50 percent retracement of that current move and boy these are short-term trends folks that's only August 16th we're not even a month out and you're talking about an S&P the trades down 400 points and now up 200 points from then mentioned we've been talking about it CPI tomorrow PPI on Wednesday a Fed meeting begins one week from tomorrow with a announcement the 21st yes which is a week from Wednesday 2 p.m. Eastern time press conference to follow right now the market looking for about 75 basis points now getting back to the rent conversation real quick one final thing I want to bring up and these are just take folks but you talk about it now this is one gentleman let's see who we're talking about here Alan Detmeister an economist at UBS securities okay and some of the analysts have been magnificently wrong folks I was listening to Bloomberg this morning and they were just talking about the Fed projection of where they saw their rate at the end of this year in December they were looking for something like 9 tenths of a percent is what they're looking for and meanwhile we're hiking 75 like like it's going out of style right now and we're only in September okay things can change dramatically the point but when you talk about rent okay and this is an economist at UBS the consumer price index measure of rent inflation should follow just like others have topped out earlier this week when they talk about inflation okay after surging in 2021 proxies using data on new lease inflation from companies like Zillow an apartment list and best for it and my dad do a great show on Friday so express for it has talked about that Zillow is really cornering even the rental market which would make sense right why not this year and are now moderating okay the consumer price index measures of a rental inflation should follow though with a lag this gentleman sees rental inflation climbing north of 7% early next year and even by the end of 2024 it's going to remain elevated about 4.5% that's just an opinion folks okay but boy if we're dealing with rental inflation that's 40% of the core that's pushing 7% next year and it's pushing 4.5% by the end of 2024 there is going to be inflation that is not transitory to put it lightly in many cases you don't get the jump up to those market rates until the tenant moves out and that could be a year from now two years from now five years from now it's going to take a few years to get back to pre-pandemic pace folks if you've ever been a landlord you understand it okay and you probably understand it even if you haven't okay because let's say someone's paying you $2,000 a month for a single family home whatever it is in a part three bedroom to bed two-bath apartment two bedroom one-bath apartment you're paying 1500 whatever it is let's say someone's paying $2,000 a month okay you rent to that person they're an outstanding tenant they pay their rent every month and they treat your place with respect and you trust them okay the next year especially when the pandemics going on and rents are really flying right you say to yourself man this this piece of property I have is probably worth about $2,200 a month right now maybe it's worth $2,150 maybe you put it up there for $2,195 and you take $2,100 or something like that right but what do you say normally okay my experience is is that you really only force a rate increase on your tenant if you are actually willing to lose that tenant for that rate increase and most times it's actually not worth it man when you think about number one if you have a good tenant there's a tremendous amount of value in that okay especially when it comes to disrespecting your home trusting them being in there whatever it is treating your property with respect and paying your bills probably most importantly but let's just say you send a letter to your tenant you say we're raising the rate to 2,200 it's going up 10% and you say it's a completely fair price and you're right it is a fair price you're not you know I'm squeezing them in any way all you're doing is asking for market rate but what happens okay what happens is that what if they say I'm not doing it man I can't afford it I could afford $2,000 I can't afford $2,200 okay you're only talking about $200 extra if you just miss one month of rent by that person moving out and moving back in just taking a 30-day lol that's one almost a full year that you would have made up in the extra rent so you're risking that whole increase for a year just for that one month and most times it takes you a little time to recycle a candidate to be a tenant there so what's the point the point is most times what I've done is I've really only raised them the next time a tenant comes in I've had a tent that's lived I have a duplex I had a tenant in there for three or four years in the beginning didn't raise the rent raised it the next time a tenant came in they were in there for a couple years didn't raise it raise the tenant the next time to a market rate that's how it's going to play out folks and many times you know you're not going to squeeze people especially right now if you don't want to kick them out and so it's going to take some time for sure all right we got a caller let's jump to our man Jose and Lakeland Jose good morning man how's Monday going top of the morning top of the morning traffic is light not too bad out here hey I just came from the supermarket there's definitely inflation here marshmallows have tripled in price what's going on with the marshmallow man you gotta talk to it's an economic phrase they call it the fluff another effect I don't know it's crazy a one steak sauce five and a half dollars it's just ketchup man you know I read something on toilet paper today the toilet paper is through the roof because energy prices just dramatic actually how much energy gets used in producing toilet paper did not aware of it one company last year they spent something like four hundred million dollars in their energy budget budget this year they're approaching two billion dollars like the biggest one out there because there's the energy alone well dad I thought that would be the easiest that might get things very real man you start getting toilet paper prices through the roof coming out tomorrow correct correct it should show the inflation is waning with gas prices down no well the analysts out there are saying that it's going to show up about 8% down from 8.5 for a headline number I'm not sure if you caught the beginning of the program though the interesting thing you're talking about food prices man even taking food and energy out which is just so volatile right now in general and I agree and I think everybody does man food is through the roof right now you can't deny energy even pulling back is still pretty elevated but the core number Jose is going to show an increase to 6.1% man and I just went over the rents are almost 40% of core CPI so my head's trying to get over if rents are 40% of the core and core is actually rising they think from 5.9 to 6.1% where's the end of the road man I don't know but that's a little dicey right now because even if energy comes down and listen you go out you know once we get out and it's not scary but it's pretty intimidating when you think if we have to start getting to where we're comping out against when crude was spiking to $130 a barrel just to get some reprieve on the CPI headline number that's not going to help even the core number though so what happens if nine months from now you know the markets comparing itself to June crude prices and energy prices right and the CPI shows a decrease in the headline number year over year because of what we had that's not going to help what you're talking about at the grocery store man it's not going to help rents that are 40% of the core number so yeah it's going to show some inflation man and I don't know I mean we're in uncharted territory man I mean that what I was just talking about with rents I would keep my head around that for for inflation because that's going to persist man what do you think which way you know yeah look at the perception is not 75 basis point back down of 50 basis points in September here hold on Jose come back with us all right we'll be right back folks you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in 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services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ markets continue and higher folks S&P is now up 26 points that's about 2 30 percent NASDAQ 100 you're about 8 10th percent right now and you take a look at the Dow you're talking about half a percent the Russell up about half a percent as well we jump to crude up a dollar right now at 87 85 you get the gold contract up about $7 we jump around a few currencies right now dollar index Jose hung up to we'll finish that conversation in a moment before we jump around on rents dollar index continuing to pull back but folks don't be confused here man right if the Fed is on a hike in cycle and they're gonna have trouble taming inflation then I would not expect any severe deep pullback in any way on the dollar index right now you've backed off to 108 36 all you are is back to where we were August 26 pretty sure everybody was pretty strong the dollar on August 26 you did get up to 110 78 we do have summer tracemen so what's going on but all we've seen folks is higher highs and higher lows in this dollar index you jump over the euro US dollar this morning back above parody but I talked about this last week man pay attention to this we are right at the upper boundary right now the euro US dollar you just got just above that level on a tail okay we put this thing on a five minute and look at the pullback man we were up to almost 102 just like that you're back to 101 man and you see where that line is on the euro US dollar now interesting that we're at the top portion of that pound of that euro US dollar trend line or channel line and then you jump to the pound US dollar look at that I was talking about it last week man you're actually bouncing off the bottom portion so what do you have you have when you compare the pound to the euro you have potentially greater pound strength versus the euro coming up now we've gotten quite a little boost I was talking about this on Friday man we were at 115 on Friday action you're pushing almost 117 as you catch a little bit of a pound bounce hasn't quite given back what the euro gave back this morning you did give back some of it you saw the pullback we just had in the euro we got to jump over to the end this morning back it off a bit as well we were up to almost 145 you put that thing on the daily but same thing man do not be confused by some of these pullbacks nothing compared to the moves that we've had in the trends that they are still intact in this morning all right jumping back to the housing real quick so I was asking Jose I mean what do you think right what do you think is gonna happen when you have rents persisting and you have them being 40 40 percent of core inflation you get the headline numbers gonna come down a bit but folks headlines not gonna save us right now if you got core persisting it's not gonna save us at all you know wages are not keeping up with where rents are and you have a little bit of a disconnection right now a dislocation potentially going on between the prices of houses that is pulling back potentially meanwhile you have rents they could persistently rise over the next couple years just to catch up with what's going on in terms of the prices for where they are actually living now couple different articles I had up here as well New York City Housing okay pulling back a bit from where they were the number of properties for sale now this article is from September 7th okay but I'm jump around a bit because this is kind of what we're talking about this morning we get CPI tomorrow and again even the headline number okay shelter is one-third of the core number so it's almost four-tenths of number of properties for sale under 500,000 that entered contract in June 29% less than the average number of transactions for that same period in the decade leading up to the pandemic when you go to 500,000 to a million you're talking about 15% less okay you talk about the world's hottest markets now this one out yesterday all right I'm just gonna scroll down to some of these markets Sydney Auckland New Zealand Stockholm Toronto right Toronto just I mean we've been hearing some tough stories of Toronto man and they are just edge and lower whereas look at the pullbacks we got in Sydney Auckland Stockholm and now this is basing at 2020 prices okay so they're still all up almost 20% from where they were in 2020 but boy Auckland was pushing 40 plus percent and you had everything else pushing 30% at one point Toronto got up to 50% at one point now here's what I found so interesting about this article though talking about interest rate volatility exposure variable risk how exposed borrowers are to rising rates varies notably by country in the US for instance most buyers rely on fixed rate home loans for as long as 30 years adjustable rate mortgages represented on average about 7% of conventional loans in the past five years not sure who was locking in an adjustable rate mortgage as rates were where they were over the last five years but that's the market maybe they weren't gonna hold it for an extended period of time and they were just flipping it maybe there are other things going on if they're still holding that that was a mistake by contrast other nations commonly have loans fixed for as little as a year or variable rate mortgages that move closely in line with official interest rates we've seen how that can go bad in the US before you're not gonna believe some of these charts maybe you are and you know them Australia Spain the UK and Canada had the highest concentration of variable rate loans as a share of new originations in 2020 now these are 2020 loans folks do you remember what was happening with interest rates in 2020 okay they were crashing as the pandemic spread in 2020 especially the later half in the year right well before we had quite come out of things Australia 93% of their loans are variable rate they're in big trouble folks okay Spain 52% the UK 42% Canada 24% the US 1% France 1% thank goodness for current owners of homes that they're gonna be at that level because New Zealand at 55% I mean look at this so other countries have a large portion of mortgages resetting imminently they reset in New Zealand for instance 55% of the outstanding value of residential mortgages is either on a floating rate or it's on a fixed rate that needs to be renewed in the year July 2023 that ain't fixed folks if it's fixed for less than a year New Zealand where prices rose close to 30% in 2021 is something of a poster child of the pandemic housing boom the central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in the past 10 months and housing prices were down 11% in July from their peak in November yeah and it's gonna spread man when you talk about those types of interest rates in pretty dramatic fashion hitting that market would kicking things off with a little real estate but boy if you solve what's gonna happen with interest rates impacting real estate that impacting home ownership how that plays out to the rental dynamic going on because if people are unable to buy houses folks and they are still forced into renting and those rental prices are resetting over the next year or two and there's enough demand to support the prices that they are coming to market with and you still haven't inflationary tended pushing 7% next year and even 4.5 by the end of 2024 I don't know where the Fed goes then but I haven't heard anybody talking about that I haven't as you know where where are where's the analysis and I'm sure it's been out there in some capacity but I haven't seen it that talks about how we get inflation back down to any reasonable level when you have rents going to be contributing such a huge factor in things and that estimate could potentially be rising almost 5% still through 2024 it's wild stuff man in a big way we jump around folks let's check out some of the fang stocks are kicking off the week we got Amazon up about 1% this morning kicks things off big dog Apple after their week last week they're up 2% there's a pop for you to 160 59 Tesla shares this morning up about 1.5% we jump over to Google shares Google fairly in the positive by about 10 cents this morning we jump to Microsoft shares up about half a percent as well let's see how some of those growth stocks are faring arc up about 1.6% that thing is just building a base potentially on the bottom chopping around the 40s stay tuned folks one more segment as a piece up 33 points we'll be right back TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tigers Den hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tigers Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers 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banks this morning with JP Morgan up about 1.7% this morning Bank of America up 1.5% jump some of the airlines Delta up 1.8% everything's getting a lift man really interesting 2.6% for Americans Southwest up 1.6% cruise ships up a couple percent now check out carnival man if you're looking for a trade folks this might be one you get back within the channel line you're towards the bottom line of that you know keep in mind though if you are playing carnival and you are buying carnival you can wake up any day and there could be a shock to that stock that says they can't support the debt they might go out of business and you could just see a dramatic drop off maybe you trade it with options to get some defined risk of some capacity even if you catch a bounce to the upside of this channel on you're talking about 14 15 16 bucks on carnival check to some of the chip stocks the video shares things been just hammered man up 2 tenths percent trading at 144 24 AMD shares get down as well down about 7 tenths percent this morning we jump back to Apple shares look at this man Apple quite a pop up 2.4% this acceleration Apple just traded up $2 from the open Apple just gained $32 billion in market cap in the last 26 minutes as Apple accelerates higher this whole yeah NASDAQ 100 now more than 1% in the positive it's gonna be an interesting one folks do we hold this do we hold it into tomorrow's number gonna be some dicey action tomorrow I bet we're going with 75 basis points next week man and I bet even if we come pretty close in line the numbers they're looking for the reason why we spent so much time on it today folks try and remember the numbers we're looking for and try to remember how hard it's gonna be to get to anything resembling normal CPI and until it's you know something with conviction the conversation is not gonna end and the chairman's gonna be out there and the S&P's are sitting pretty relatively well 41 26 coming into potentially that third 75 basis point stay tuned folks Basil Chapman he's back live live programming all day at TFNM Basil's up next have a great Monday everybody